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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110944
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
543 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 11/1200 UTC THRU MAR 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..SO
MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS
TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF.
DAY 1...
...SWRN TX ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/SERN OK REGION...
SIGNIFICANT RNFL IS XPCD FM SWRN TX ENEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX/SERN
OK REGION THIS PD..WITH MDL QPFS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. IN THE WAKE OF THE STG SYS LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN
CANADA...THE MID TO UPR LVL FLO WL RMN OUT OF THE S-SW FM NRN
MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY..IN WHAT IS A WELL DEFINED
SRN BRANCH/SUBTROP STREAM ON RECENT SATL IMAGERY. S/WV ENERGY
WITHIN THIS SRN STREAM AND A SLY LLJ OFF THE WRN GULF WL OVRRUN
THE LOW LVL COLD AIR SINKING SWD INTO THE REGION ERY IN THE
PD..SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EXPANDING AREA OF OVRRNG PCPN ACRS A
LARGE PTN OF TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SERN OK. HVIEST RNFL AXIS
LIKELY JUST N OF H85 BNDRY STRETCHING FM THE BIG BEND ENEWD TWDS
CNTRL AR..WITH SUSTAINED 30KTS OF LLJ..PWS ABV 1 INCH AND TRAINING
OF RNFL ECHOES SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME 2-3 INCH AMTS WITHIN THIS
HVIEST RNFL AXIS. AS STATED ABV..THE NAM AND GFS QPFS WERE GENLY
SIMILAR..ALTHO DID BEEF THE NAM QPF UP A BIT VCNTY OF SWRN TX MORE
LIKE THE GFS SOLN. SOME WINTRY PCPN LIKELY ON THE NRN/NWRN FRINGE
OF THE PCPN SHIELD LT IN THE PD..OVR PTNS OF OK AND NRN AR..PLS
SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTRY PCPN POTNL.
...NEW ENG...
WITH THE H5 SYS FCST TO LIFT RATHER QUICKLY ENEWD THRU SERN CANADA
THIS PD..ASSOCTD FNTL SYS WL ALSO SWEEP RAPIDLY THRU NEW ENG DURG
THE DAY WED..TRIGGERING MSTLY LGT TO LCLY MDT PCPN..WITH MAINLY
RAINS OVR SRN NEW ENG BUT WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS CNTRL INTO
NRN ME. PWS AOA 1 INCH WL BE PULLED INTO THE REGION AHD OF THE
CDFNT..WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HVIER PCPN RATES..BUT WITH THE
SYS BEING SO PROGRESSIVE..FELT THE GFS WAS A LTL TOO HVY WITH ITS
QPF OVR SRN NH AND ERN ME..AND LEANED TWDS SLGTLY LESSER QPF SOLNS
AS PER THE NAM..CANADIAN GEM AND 12Z ECMWF HIRES MDLS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE STRONG CYCLONE CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL LINGER FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST BACK ALONG
THE GULF COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED OVERRUNNING
EVENT FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SRN MID ATL COASTS
AS SERIES OF SRN STREAM IMPULSES INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF
THESE INDIVIDUALS IMPULSES AND GIVEN THEIR WEAK NATURE DO NOT HAVE
ANY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF ANY PARTICULAR MODEL
QPF AT THIS POINT. THE NAM HOWEVER IS STRONGER AND FURTHER TO THE
N WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN MID ATL ON FRI THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THEREFORE DID NOT DRAW PCPN AS FAR N AS THE
NAM IS DEPICTING. FURTHER W BACK ALONG THE CTRL GULF COAST...THE
GFS IS ON THE STRONG SIDE AND NRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A WAVE
DEVELOPING THERE AND IN TURN BELIEVE AT THIS POINT ITS AMTS ACROSS
LA/MS ON DAY 3 ARE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE...WITH LITTLE REASON SEEN
TO DISCOUNT ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER...AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS
TAKEN. THE HEAVIEST AMTS OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM ERN TX TO THE CTRL GULF COAST STATES WHERE PWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AND WHERE AN UPR JET COUPLET WILL OFFER AREAS OF ENHANCED UPR
DIVERGENCE. AREAL AVGS OF 1-3 ARE NOT OUT THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE THIS REGION.
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
A DIFFUSE UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION...ENCOURAGING LGT TO OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED MDT AMTS ACROSS
THE REGION. AS WITH THE DOWNSTREAM FEATURES...DO NOT HAVE ANY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL`S HANDLING OF THE FINER
DETAILS HERE AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC GLOBAL BLEND.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WRN WA/OR ON DAY 3 AS AN
UPR RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WELL-DEFINED TROF MOVING INTO WRN CAN AND
THE NWRN U.S. A FASTER TREND IN THE ECMWF HAS PUT ITS TIMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...HOWEVER THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE ITS AMTS MAY
BE TOO MUCH ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL.
TERRY/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 12/12Z
0.01 543754 542744 539733 534718 531710 528707 525700 522696
515685 512680 509673 506664 504655 500646 493634 486626
483623 479618 472611 468610 463610 455611 444615 439617
433621 424626 415632 410636 406641 398649 386667 375684
364704 354723 350731 346739 340746 337751 335756 334760
338763 344762 346761 353765 357764 359761 363756 366752
370744 375734 379726 383723 385723 388731 393736 398740
401743 401750 398771 396781 394786 390792 382799 376806
364819 358827 353835 344852 339872 336882 332892 324908
319916 315923 306937 301943 296950 289957 284963 275977
269983 261988 252993 249995 247000 247005 249008 254012
260017 265024 295084 298087 302088 307087 310087 312088
314091 318093 321091 324094 324098 327102 332104 335108
338110 342109 346105 346099 346094 350095 353094 355092
358086 357080 355075 350068 346061 346053 349050 357044
359041 361037 360030 362024 364020 368011 369004 367997
363989 362984 362976 364951 364944 365939 365929 366922
365915 366907 364882 365871 366860 368849 371841 375832
382824 395810 415792 423785 433780 444776 451775 459776
468780 472786 473794 473800 471806 465818 458827 455831
454834 451836 441843 435848 433851 431854 432858 435862
443865 450868 458873 461877 462884 466896 469900 473899
476897 481892 489888 493887 498889 502890 505890 508887
516882 524870 536849 541820 544808 544800 546792 546788
546782 545771 543754
0.25 535760 534749 531740 528731 524721 521715 517709 512704
509701 500698 496697 492695 487690 482688 478687 474681
473678 475673 476666 475661 473656 471653 470649 469644
465634 462630 452630 447632 442634 437639 432643 424653
420658 418663 417668 419677 417689 416694 416702 416707
417714 423723 423731 425734 429733 432729 437724 443720
448718 449723 452726 459725 468721 478719 483721 486729
494742 501751 504757 507765 509768 509777 508793 507800
507809 509819 510822 513824 518825 524823 527820 529817
532811 535797 536787 537778 535760
0.25 492685 492680 489678 488683 490686 492686 492685
0.25 358920 356910 353903 351900 347898 342900 337905 332911
328917 323924 317936 308948 301960 294973 288984 283990
280996 278004 282011 289025 297035 303039 309039 314036
319031 323026 327018 333005 341992 347978 352964 356947
357937 358928 358920
0.50 446688 445680 444676 441673 437673 434675 432677 429683
428688 430691 429694 427698 427703 429706 431709 435711
439711 441708 444704 446698 446693 446688
0.50 354935 354926 352917 350912 347909 344908 338911 334916
331920 327928 316948 302969 297979 290989 287993 286001
286005 288012 295022 298027 302030 308030 313027 320019
327008 332996 337984 343972 348961 352946 354935
1.00 349940 350933 348925 345920 340921 337923 333927 328936
318953 313962 308971 304979 298989 294997 294001 294005
300015 304017 307017 312015 316012 322004 332986 341966
344957 348947 349940
1.50 346937 345932 343929 338929 334933 327945 319960 311974
305988 301994 300999 302004 307009 312009 315006 319000
324992 331980 338965 341958 344948 346937
2.00 342942 341937 340935 337936 334939 327950 321962 315973
312980 310987 307994 307998 311004 316000 322989 328978
335965 339952 342942
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
0.01 472855 472850 471846 469843 467841 464841 462846 463850
464854 464855 464858 465862 469865 471860 471859 472855
0.01 452815 451811 450808 448804 445802 445801 442800 439802
438805 439809 440813 443816 445819 447821 448821 450821
452820 452817 452815
0.01 230997 234002 239005 249010 271020 280025 290031 300035
304037 310037 322031 328026 332025 342028 349030 354036
354041 353044 345047 333050 329052 329059 332063 336065
336069 333071 326074 321078 322082 337104 343115 350125
358131 361145 367143 372141 375139 379133 383128 388126
390123 389119 384115 380112 380110 381104 384099 389095
392090 395084 396077 404068 409068 413066 414062 411059
401049 398044 399040 402031 398026 394022 391017 390008
391000 391995 389991 386986 383984 377984 373983 371980
370977 370971 373956 375949 375942 376931 375921 381866
384849 386833 388817 390812 391808 391804 392797 392792
391786 384773 381760 380746 380738 378730 376726 374725
369726 367734 366739 364754 364778 360807 357815 355821
348834 344845 336857 320873 312883 306892 301897 292897
287901 285909 286923 287931 287940 282943 276945 265949
261951 256955 252960 252964 257973 254976 249979 240981
232985
0.01 344747 342738 338731 331725 327725 324727 322732 320742
319749 317755 313765 309776 306786 301808 304813 304819
302828 301833 304836 308838 312838 314837 315833 331818
337806 340797 341771 344757 344747
0.01 355110 355107 355106 352103 352102 350099 349099 346097
345099 345103 345106 346108 348110 349110 351112 354112
355110
0.01 334173 333171 330169 329169 327168 325167 324168 323171
324172 327173 329175 332174 334173
0.25 378810 376806 374808 372814 371820 368825 366837 363847
357860 356867 353871 350882 348895 344907 341909 338908
335903 331901 327901 324903 319913 307932 304943 300953
297957 293961 283967 274971 269974 266977 265986 268993
275001 283005 294007 302006 308004 313000 317997 323988
328980 342960 346949 350940 357929 360923 362917 364908
365900 366893 366886 368879 371866 375842 377833 377822
377814 378810
0.25 331769 330762 329759 326759 322763 320767 319771 319775
320782 320785 322788 326786 329782 330778 331773 331769
0.25 378083 380077 381072 377065 373062 369061 366061 358062
355064 354068 352077 352083 354087 357089 359090 360086
364087 369091 372090 374086 378083
0.50 376072 375068 372065 371068 372070 373072 375073 376072
0.50 340935 340930 339926 335923 330914 326912 323915 321920
319930 311952 299973 295976 288976 278976 273978 272984
272988 273991 277993 286999 294002 299000 303996 309987
316980 324972 332964 334959 336953 340935
1.00 326941 326938 326941 326942 326941
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
0.01 502712 502707 500703 498703 495704 489715 486725 482733
478745 475757 473767 470778 470788 469797 470802 470814
469825 471842 472850 474855 477857 480866 486873 488880
490883 493901 496915 498931 500941 502945 504954 506958
510966 517978 520981 523980 525976 526971 526961 525946
522929 520910 520895 518880 517872 514864 510851 504839
501830 498814 494797 491783 491772 491760 493747 494740
496734 499725 501720 502713 502712
0.01 539203 538191 535184 533180 532174 531170 528166 522160
518158 514161 510166 502164 492162 484161 480163 478167
480173 492180 497189 502194 513204 518214 522221 529225
534222 537218 538213
0.01 522266 522258 519250 515238 514231 511224 503215 495207
489202 483202 471205 464208 455216 446218 441220 439230
431236 428239 424246 423249 424253 431256 442255 452253
456252 464254 466257 466265 468272 472276 476281 482285
489285 497288 502291 506292 512290
0.01 383695 382690 380685 374681 369680 362683 354689 350696
344708 336729 332740 327752 319764 314774 311782 310789
308794 306802 306807 309811 313812 316810 322807 326808
321813 318817 316822 315829 316838 315846 314853 312865
306880 302888 296898 286918 261960 262967 262971 261975
252982 236993 232996 232002 234005 239006 245007 254007
260009 270014 281019 289024 293026 299029 303031 309033
315034 324033 337031 344030 346031 348036 344043 341045
338046 332047 329049 326053 325058 328061 333064 338067
343070 345075 353086 359089 361091 362096 364102 366106
370106 377103 383097 390093 394088 398082 398071 400066
405061 407057 401053 396049 392044 391042 391036 391026
391017 389008 386002 382998 378997 375993 375988 373974
371969 369965 365962 361955 358948 357939 358932 359915
359897 360890 362883 368874 373865 374857 374849 375833
377818 378810 379801 377791 378783 378770 377763 378755
380745 382733 384721 385710 384701 383695
0.01 386120 386114 382113 375115 370114 366112 363111 356108
352105 346101 343096 340088 336082 334080 330081 331085
335099 335110 338116 341123 345122 352124 359126 364127
368125 374122 377123 382122 386120
0.25 528203 529199 529195 528194 528189 527184 526183 524181
521179 518179 515181 513185 515186 516190 517193 518196
519197 522201 525202 527203 528204 528203
0.25 515276 518267 517258 513247 508238 501228 498223 496222
492223 492227 496240 497246 494248 492247 486246 483250
487261 490266 494271 499279 501284 504284 509283 513280
515276
0.25 484218 481216 480217 481219 484218
0.25 455240 454238 452236 449235 446236 444236 443237 440239
439242 438243 439243 442244 443244 445244 448244 450242
451242 454240 455240
0.25 363713 363710 360708 356712 355719 345734 338745 332758
324772 323776 323781 326787 331787 338784 342784 344787
344795 340812 336818 332826 329840 326853 324863 321870
315884 303907 295921 288935 284945 281952 280960 283968
288972 292974 294977 298984 301989 305993 310997 314998
319998 323996 326994 330988 339974 343962 346944 347927
348905 349891 352876 354865 356856 357847 357837 356822
357815 359807 366773 367764 367755 366740 363713
0.25 383054 383050 380048 378045 372043 369043 364048 359051
356054 355061 356065 358068 361070 366072 369074 375083
377082 378079 380071 378065 374057 378056 383054
0.50 499232 497230 496231 497233 499232
0.50 517268 516265 515262 514259 513256 512254 510251 510249
507247 505249 506253 506254 508259 508264 509269 512270
515269 517268
0.50 507278 506273 506272 503270 500270 502275 502276 505278
507278
0.50 363756 362753 362749 360748 357750 357751 356755 356756
356760 356763 356764 356767 358769 361768 362764 363760
364759 363756
0.50 342763 340760 339760 337761 334763 334764 332766 331769
331771 330773 330776 329777 330778 333777 335775 336774
337772 339769 340768 341765 342763
0.50 351843 351836 349831 345825 343823 339825 338828 335836
332843 330854 327870 325877 321885 313898 307912 301924
297933 294941 292947 292952 295956 300962 304970 311984
314987 317987 320986 323982 331971 335963 338954 341938
342928 343918 344899 345889 347880 349865 351843
1.00 343864 342856 341854 338853 336858 335863 332875 329883
324894 321902 313921 303939 302944 306949 311956 315960
318963 323963 326960 331951 335940 337929 338918 338905
339894 341880 343871 343864
1.50 332923 333916 331910 329907 326909 324913 322917 320922
318926 317930 316934 316940 318945 321948 326945 328941
330937 331934 332927 332923
$$
