# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Proton Short-Term Warnings # # Missing data: -99999 # Year: 2006 Hits: 9 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 357 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.90 False Alarm Ratio: 0 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 0.90 Gilbert Score: 0.90 Heidke Skill Score: 0.94 True Skill Statistic: 0.90 Year: 2005 Hits: 7 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 357 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.13 Success Ratio: 0.88 Critical Success Index: 0.88 Bias: 1.14 Gilbert Score: 0.87 Heidke Skill Score: 0.93 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2004 Hits: 6 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 360 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2003 Hits: 9 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 355 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.10 Success Ratio: 0.90 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 1.11 Gilbert Score: 0.90 Heidke Skill Score: 0.95 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 2002 Hits: 18 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 345 Climatology: 0.05 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.10 Success Ratio: 0.90 Critical Success Index: 0.90 Bias: 1.11 Gilbert Score: 0.89 Heidke Skill Score: 0.94 True Skill Statistic: 0.99 Year: 2001 Hits: 21 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 5 Correct Rejections: 339 Climatology: 0.06 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.19 Success Ratio: 0.81 Critical Success Index: 0.81 Bias: 1.24 Gilbert Score: 0.80 Heidke Skill Score: 0.89 True Skill Statistic: 0.99 Year: 2000 Hits: 9 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 6 Correct Rejections: 348 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.75 False Alarm Ratio: 0.40 Success Ratio: 0.60 Critical Success Index: 0.50 Bias: 1.25 Gilbert Score: 0.49 Heidke Skill Score: 0.65 True Skill Statistic: 0.73 Year: 1999 Hits: 2 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 359 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.40 False Alarm Ratio: 0.33 Success Ratio: 0.67 Critical Success Index: 0.33 Bias: 0.60 Gilbert Score: 0.33 Heidke Skill Score: 0.49 True Skill Statistic: 0.40 Year: 1998 Hits: 4 Misses: 4 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 356 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.20 Success Ratio: 0.80 Critical Success Index: 0.44 Bias: 0.63 Gilbert Score: 0.44 Heidke Skill Score: 0.61 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1997 Hits: 2 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 363 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00 Year: 1996 Hits: 0 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 366 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: -99999 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: -99999 Bias: -99999 Gilbert Score: -99999 Heidke Skill Score: -99999 True Skill Statistic: -99999 Year: 1995 Hits: 0 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 364 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: 0.00 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: 0.00 Bias: 0.00 Gilbert Score: 0.00 Heidke Skill Score: 0.00 True Skill Statistic: 0.00 Year: 1994 Hits: 0 Misses: 2 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 363 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.00 False Alarm Ratio: -99999 Success Ratio: -99999 Critical Success Index: 0.00 Bias: 0.00 Gilbert Score: 0.00 Heidke Skill Score: 0.00 True Skill Statistic: 0.00 Year: 1993 Hits: 1 Misses: 1 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 361 Climatology: 0.01 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.67 Success Ratio: 0.33 Critical Success Index: 0.25 Bias: 1.50 Gilbert Score: 0.25 Heidke Skill Score: 0.40 True Skill Statistic: 0.49 Year: 1992 Hits: 3 Misses: 3 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 359 Climatology: 0.02 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.25 Success Ratio: 0.75 Critical Success Index: 0.43 Bias: 0.67 Gilbert Score: 0.42 Heidke Skill Score: 0.59 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1991 Hits: 5 Misses: 12 False Alarms: 2 Correct Rejections: 346 Climatology: 0.05 Probability of Detection: 0.29 False Alarm Ratio: 0.29 Success Ratio: 0.71 Critical Success Index: 0.26 Bias: 0.41 Gilbert Score: 0.25 Heidke Skill Score: 0.40 True Skill Statistic: 0.29 Year: 1990 Hits: 6 Misses: 6 False Alarms: 1 Correct Rejections: 352 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.50 False Alarm Ratio: 0.14 Success Ratio: 0.86 Critical Success Index: 0.46 Bias: 0.58 Gilbert Score: 0.45 Heidke Skill Score: 0.62 True Skill Statistic: 0.50 Year: 1989 Hits: 3 Misses: 20 False Alarms: 9 Correct Rejections: 333 Climatology: 0.06 Probability of Detection: 0.13 False Alarm Ratio: 0.75 Success Ratio: 0.25 Critical Success Index: 0.09 Bias: 0.52 Gilbert Score: 0.07 Heidke Skill Score: 0.13 True Skill Statistic: 0.10 Year: 1988 Hits: 3 Misses: 7 False Alarms: 4 Correct Rejections: 352 Climatology: 0.03 Probability of Detection: 0.30 False Alarm Ratio: 0.57 Success Ratio: 0.43 Critical Success Index: 0.21 Bias: 0.70 Gilbert Score: 0.20 Heidke Skill Score: 0.34 True Skill Statistic: 0.29 Year: 1987 Hits: 1 Misses: 0 False Alarms: 0 Correct Rejections: 364 Climatology: 0.00 Probability of Detection: 1.00 False Alarm Ratio: 0.00 Success Ratio: 1.00 Critical Success Index: 1.00 Bias: 1.00 Gilbert Score: 1.00 Heidke Skill Score: 1.00 True Skill Statistic: 1.00