Developing the ability to confidently estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture is critically important. If ever achieved, it could provide the global information needed to help farmers develop their own long-range responses to climate change. Unfortunately, we are a long way from having such a capability, and it may take a decade or more to substantially improve the resolution and accuracy of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) and evaluate the implications for agriculture.
- Influencing Factors discusses elements that are important to determining the "bottom-line" impact on U.S. agriculture resources.
- Uncertainties points out why even the best estimates that are currently available need to be treated with caution.
Many studies have examined the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture both in the United States and abroad over the last couple of decades. While we focus on the impacts on U.S. agriculture resources, it is important to note that the global situation appears to be much less reassuring. Developing countries are likely to have considerably more difficulty adapting to climate change due to many factors, such as less developed technology and less available capital. In addition, global climate change will clearly impact U.S. agriculture exports, imports and market prices. While very important, such global considerations are largely beyond the scope of this discussion.
U.S. Agriculture: A Case of Low Vulnerability to Climate Change?
U.S. Agriculture has many strong points in its favor that should permit successful adaptation for some time to climate change. The overall production system is technically advanced and is quick to adopt new technology. It is regionally diverse, so as a whole it has already adapted to a wide range of conditions. The sector is highly productive, intensively managed, and market based. Agriculture, per se, accounts for less than 5% of the national GDP, giving us considerably more flexibility to adapt than most other countries. Nevertheless, given the uncertainties noted and the serious consequences of potentially being wrong, it appears prudent to aggressively study and research how best to limit and mitigate the impacts of climate change on U.S. agriculture. Complacency poses great risk. If vigorous efforts to better understand and prepare for potentially severe impacts are delayed, the nation may face a future time-, resource-, ecological-, and policy-crunch of monumental proportions.
Selected References
Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel, Climate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on Agriculture, Oxford University Press, 1998, ISBN 0-19-508889-1.
Richard M. Adams, Brian H. Hurd and John Reilly, A Review of Impacts to U.S. Agricultural Resources, 
Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 1999.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Special Report of IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, 1998, ISBN 0-521-632560 Hardback, ISBN 0-521-634555 Paperback.
USDA, Economic Research Service, Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability, Agricultural Economic Report No. 740, 1996.