FXUS61 KLWX 240204
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 
1000 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT)...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SAVE FOR A COUPLE 
OF PATCHES OF SCATTERED CLOUDS...THE CWA IS GENERALLY CLEAR AT 01Z WITH 
LIGHT WINDS. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO 
FORM LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALREADY IN ZONES...THUS NO UPDATE THIS 
EVENING. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS 
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z 
FRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE 
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH 
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH 
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. 
THERE BY INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SKIES OVER NIGHT WILL 
STILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN 
THE VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. WITH REGARD TO TEMPS...ETA 
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLER THAN GFS. WITH SUCH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING 
THE COOLER NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT ETA DEWPOINTS ARE TOO LOW 
TO START WITH SO WILL TAKE A BLEND.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF FRIDAY...WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN 
CIRRUS AND SOME AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE OPTED FOR A PARTLY 
CLOUDY FORECAST. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUDS AND THE EASTERLY FETCH. LOWER TO MID 80S 
STILL REASONABLE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE AND WHAT 
IMPACT THEY WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST. 

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE MADE...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY 
OF JEANNE TRACK. HOWEVER...POPS/CLOUDS/WINDS WERE BOOSTED A BIT 
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN ACCORDANCE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM 
NCEP/TPC. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. 
THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA LATE 
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE ETA AND AVN DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON HOW FAR 
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWFA. THE FRONT HAS LOOKED 
PRETTY WEAK ON CONSISTENT RUNS...SO WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NO 
POPS AT THIS TIME. 

OTHERWISE...JEANNE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING UP/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST 
COAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS SHOULD BEGIN 
AFFECTING THE CWFA BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. AS OF NOW...THE 
REMNANTS OF JEANNE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA. THE WINDS 
ALONG THE BAY SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP SOMETIME ON MONDAY...AND THE 
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA LATE MONDAY 
INTO TUESDAY. 

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...CPW
LONG TERM...LISTEMAA