FXUS61 KAKQ 270717
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FOG AGAIN BCMG LOCALLY DENSE THIS MORN ESP IN THE RIC METRO AREA.
WILL AT LEAST ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE POOR VSBYS THRU THE
MORN COMMUTE WITH AN EYE TWD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF CONDS CONT TO
DETERIORATE.

RELATIVELY STAGNANT FLOW PATN ACRS CNTRL MID ATLC REGION AS UPR RDG
AXIS MEANDERS OVR THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT SIMILIAR CONDS
TO YEST WITH FOG LIFTING AFTER SUNRISE THEN SCT/BKN CU DEVLOPMENT
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CU BECAME QUITE PROMINENT BY MIDDAY OVR MANY
AREAS YEST BUT CAPPING LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMNT AND PSBL PCPN.
FEEL THAT CAP WL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ACRS NE NC TODAY AND MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW CUD POP SOME ISOLD SHWRS SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC
POP OVR FAR SE FORECAST AREA (CSTL NE NC) FOR TODAY. UPR RDG
RETROGRADES A BIT OVR MID ATLC REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND
REINFORCES CAP SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY.

WARMER TEMPERATURE GUID VERIFIED BETTER YEST WITH MAX T...SO HAVE
FAVORED THE WARMER MOS FOR BOTH TODAY AND SAT. WARMER TEMPS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY LOCAL LOW LVL THICKNESS STUDY. 90+ READINGS A GOOD
PSBLTY FOR NORMALLY WARMER SITES ON SATURDAY AS UPR RDG AXIS (RISING
HEIGHTS) SETTLE OVRHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MODEL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF UPR RDG ALONG MID
ATLC SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PCPN TIMING UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTN AND IF DRIER TREND CONT...MOST OF WEEKEND LIKELY TO BE
PCPN FREE. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS SFC SYS LINGERING ALONG SE COAST
BUT SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE GOING NOWHERE FAST HAVING BEEN CUTOFF FROM
MAIN STEERING FLOW. THIS SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW SHUD EVENTUALLY
GET CAUGHT UP IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROF EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN RIDE UP EASTERN SEABOARD...SO WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS
THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY IFR CONDS FOR INLAND TAF SITES AND MVFR FOR CSTL
AREAS FOR FOG/STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS
VSBYS IMPROVE/CLOUD BASES RISE.

&&

.MARINE...NO FLAGS. COASTAL SYS RMNS TUCKED IN SW OF HATTERAS NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SHUD PREVENT SWELL BUILD UP N OF HSE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CULLEN
AVIATION...BROWN
MARINE...BROWN