####018001546#### FXUS64 KMOB 151820 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009 UPDATE...AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...FORECASTERS HAVE SEEN A DECREASE AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE WET WEATHER. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CLOUDS THINNING AND DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUS...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE TAKES INTO ACCOUNT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. FORECASTERS HAVE ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. /10 .AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THROUGH 21Z WITH THINNING AND A DECREASE IN OPAQUENESS AFT 21Z. SCATTERED -SHRA COULD LOWER VSBY BRIEFLY TO MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID AFTN SE OF INTERSTATE 65. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFT 00Z. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 60 39 62 39 / 10 05 05 05 PENSACOLA 61 40 64 41 / 20 05 05 00 DESTIN 62 45 64 43 / 30 05 05 00 EVERGREEN 60 36 62 32 / 10 05 05 00 WAYNESBORO 62 35 59 32 / 05 05 05 00 CAMDEN 61 36 59 32 / 05 05 00 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA... AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ ####018002429#### FXUS66 KHNX 151823 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 1023 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2009 .DISCUSSION...THE VIGOROUS PACIFC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY IMPACT INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND CURRENTLY CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASING AND THE WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AS THE INCREASING WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE VALLEY OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH END WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL PROVIDE EXTRA WARMING. AS THE LOW MOVES IN CLOSER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BELOW THE GRAPEVINE IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THERE IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS MAY EVEN BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO MAKE THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOK ON TRACK. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE INTRA-SITE CONSISTENCY ISSUES...AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN WINDSPEEDS...NO CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON. AFTER 00Z MONDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ095>097. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ092-095. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ089-091. && $$ PUBLIC...JEB AVN/FW...JDB WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD ####018004971#### FXUS61 KRLX 151823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1258 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AT 18Z...COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SRN KY. COULD STILL NOT RULE OUT A COATING OF SNOW OVER OUR 2 VA COUNTIES THIS EVENING...FROM THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THOUGH...STILL APPEARS THE HIGHER POPS AND MORE ACCUMULATION REMAINS FURTHER SE...SAY TOWARD THE NEW RIVER HEADWATERS ONCE UPPER AIR FEATURE MOVES E...THE 850 MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER 850 NW FLOW. SO AFTER SOME THINNING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTH OF THE SRN WAVE...THINKING THOSE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND CREEP S. SINCE THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF REMAIN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY...THINK FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...DESPITE THE THIN MOISTURE LAYER. HAVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME W. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND PRESIDENTS DAY LOOK GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SNOWSHOE OF 13 DEGS ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE CLOUDS...COULD NOT GO AS LOW AS MUCH OF THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. MAV MOS HIGHS FOR MONDAY LOOK TOO WARM...SO STAYED CLOSER TO FWC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS...WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MET MOS HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK WAY TOO COOL BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV MOS. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. WENT WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR THIS PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS THRU WED NIGHT...THEN CLOSER TO ECMWF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PCPN EARLY WED WITH A WARM FRONT WITH MARKED TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HAVE CODED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT THRU WED...INCREASING LIKELY POPS AT BOTH SIDES OF THE OH RIVER THRU WED. THEN...WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS WERE CODED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PERHAPS...AS TIME SHRINKS...CATEGORICAL POPS COULD BE INSERTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THRU TUE NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS FLOW AT H850 PER GFS MODEL...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP LIQUID PCPN THRU WED NIGHT. THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN OVERNIGHT WED...GRADUALLY CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY....MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PCPN LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE ENDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. USED A MIX OF HPC AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE BRINGING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE CODED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE AS TIME APPROACHES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HARD TO FIGURE HOW MUCH THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OH AND NRN WV WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD DARK THIS EVENING...AS MID DECK INCREASES OVER ERN KY AND SRN WV FROM THE WEST. HAVE CRW AND BKW SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THEIR 3 TO 5 THSD FT DESK...AS THOSE MID CLOUDS THICKEN. THINKING THE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY S OF BKW 00Z TO 06Z. IN WAKE OF THE FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE THAT STREAKS E... HAVE MOISTURE AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT INCREASING AGAIN 03Z-09Z MONDAY IN THE COLDER NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO HAVE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS SINKING S AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 3 THSD FT 12Z-18Z MONDAY. VSBY AROUND 5 MILES IN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY CKB-CRW ON E TOWARD EKN AND BKW. AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z MONDAY/... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IFR MAY LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...KTB