EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 1999
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES. THERE WILL
BE PATCHY DENSE FOG NEAR THE BEACHES TONIGHT WITH SOME COOLING AND
AN INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.
EARLY EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS (ONE EACH WITH MSTR FM LAX/SNA) SHOW A
STRONG SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION...BLO 500 FT MSL...WITH SOME
MOISTENING AT THE SFC. FLOW ABV THE SFC FM AROUND 2000 FT MSL ON UP
WAS ELY/NELY 15-20 KT. RAMSDIS SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS OFF THE S
CST. WL ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING TO CSTL ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED AND WORD "NEAR BEACHES". SHALLOWNESS OF THE MARINE
INVERSION COUPLED WITH SOME DIURNAL STRENTHENING OF THE WK OFSHR
FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING SHOULD LIMIT BOTH THE
INLAND AND AREAL EXTENT OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. WK EDDY FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT JUST OFF THE S CST BY BOTH THE RUC AND COAMPS WOULD
MITIGATE SOMEWHAT THE EFFECTS OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SRNMOST CSTL
SXNS. HENCE...WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG...SUCH AS IT IS...TO HAVE THE
GREATEST AREAL EXTENT ALG THE S CST OF SAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
SAN 0000
.SAN...NONE.
MARTIN
FXUS66 KHNX 192202 ca
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
88D TIME LAPSE SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF A KSUA-MYGF LINE
...MAINLY OFFSHORE AND VERY SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH AND WEST. ALSO A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS SHOW UP OVER MARION COUNTY. KXMR 915MHZ PROFILER
SHOWS DEPTH OF ESE FLOW RATHER SHALLOW...CONFINED TO AOB 3KFT. IR
SATELLITE DOES INDEED SHOW THE HIGHER STRATOCU ELEMENTS FROM THE
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NNE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ALONG SOME
SORT OF LEFTOVER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. IR TIME LAPSE SHOWS THE
MID/HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STREAMING
NORTHEAST...BUT STILL WELL NORTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA.
PREMISE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF MARTIN/SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES
LOOKS LOW GIVEN 00Z RUC DEPICTION OF LIGHT H85 WINDS VEERING TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WILL DROP POP FOR BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES TO LESS
THAN 20 AND KEEP A 20 POP TO THE SOUTH.
MARINE...BUOY 009 WINDS HAVE SLACKENED TO 10-15 KNOTS...AND THE CWF
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
.MLB...NONE.
CRISTALDI
FXUS62 KTAE 200107 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
223 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 1999
INTERESTING WEATHER OCCURRING TODAY WITH LONGWAVE TROF AXIS PASSING
THROUGH THE STATE, WITH SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES. THE FIRST OF WHICH
BROUGHT BAND OF SHRA THROUGH THIS MORNING. SATELLITE, PROFILER AND
RUC DATA ALL SHOWING THESE VORTICIES WELL. IN PARTICULAR, THE 700
MB PROFILER DATA IS DEPICTING COMPACT WAVE, PROBABLY WITH A MINI
COLD POCKET, OVER SW CORNER OF IA. CLOUD FIELD HAS GONE CONVECTIVE
IN A SHALLOW LAYER AS OMA HAS DEPICTED SMALL CAPE THROUGH ABOUT 700
MB UPON SOME HEATING THAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY. A FEW SMALL SHRA HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THIS ROTATION, WITH GRAUPEL REPORTED AS WELL. THE
OTHER VORTICES WERE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AND INTO CENTRAL MN.
DUE TO THE CELLULAR NATURE OF THE CLOUDS, AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY WITH TIME THIS EVENING, ETA AND RUC ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN
DEPICTING A CLEARING TREND THIS EVENING FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF IA. WILL HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER OVER THE NE PART
OF THE STATE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN VERY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS PER LAST
NIGHT'S READINGS, BUT FEEL FWC NUMBERS ARE VALID IN THIS CASE. ALO
AREA MAY BE A BIT TRICKY TIMING CLOUD EXIT LATE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD
HAVE ENOUGH TIME JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S.
REST OF FORECAST PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AND LOOKING NICE INDEED.
ISENTROPICALLY, SOME UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BUT DO NOT FORESEE MORE THAN SOME MID-HIGH THIN BAND OF CLOUDS LATE
WEDNESDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO NOT GO WITH A SUNNY FORECAST THOUGH AT
THIS TIME. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTER
AS RIDGE PASSES TO OUR E. USING 850 MB FORECAST TEMPS FROM THE ETA,
MID TO UPPER 50S SHOULD BE EASILY OBTAINED, POSSIBLY LOWER 60S IN
THE W. WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH NOW
APPEARS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. MAY HIT 70 IN WESTERN
CWA.
JUST LOOKING AT THE FMR ALONE SHOWS HOW MUCH OF A DRY PATTERN IS
UNDERWAY WITH DSM POPS NOT GOING ABOVE 16 THROUGH DAY 7 WITH A CLIMO
OF 30. MAIN DIFFERENCE THOUGH IS WE WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR A
SPEEDIER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CAN
SEE THIS SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ON THE WATER VAPOR WITH STRONG JET
PUNCHING INTO THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. THIS JET PATTERN DOESN'T
CEASE IN THE LONG TERM WITH SHORTWAVES TRYING TO DIG AN EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH TRIES TO SOLIDIFY MORE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 528DKM 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES PROGGED. HOWEVER, 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO
DROP TO -6C, MUCH LIKE TODAY AND TONIGHT, SO DO NOT FORESEE HARSHLY
COLDER WEATHER. AIR MASS SOURCE WILL CONTINUE TO EITHER ORIGINATE
OR BE MODIFIED BY NORTHERN PACIFIC FEED INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NW.
.DSM...NONE
KULA
FXUS63 KDMX 190829 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
925 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
00Z HAND DRAWN SFC CHART INDICATING INVERTED SFC TROFF STILL XTENDING
NWRD INTO TN AND KY...WITH COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL IL AND MO.
RADARS INDICATING BULK OF THE R- ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER NEW AREAS OF R- KEEP FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF TN AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE INTO THE CWA.
SAT PIXS SHOW CLEARING LINE OVER W KY MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS
E. ALL MODEL RH FCSTS AND LAMP DATA INDICATE NO CLRING AT ALL TNGHT AND
LAMP TIME SERIES SHOWING CIGS HOLDING IN AT 2-5KT ALL NIGHT AND RIGHT
ON INTO TOMORROW TOWARD MIDDAY. BASED ON SAT PIXS ANYHOW...THIS SEEMS
OVERDONE BUT WILL TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION.
MESO-ETA...RUC AND NGM INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME R- OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE UNTIL MORNING IN THE EASTERN ZONES. SOME 5H PIVA AND 7H UVVS
ALSO INDICATED BY ALL MODELS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS
LIKELY LATE IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...NOT SO SURE HOW FAR EAST THE
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT WITH TERRAIN CONSIDERATIONS. THIS SITUATION
SIMILAR TO 2 NIGHTS AGO WHEN CLEARING DIDNT GET HERE UNTIL LIKE 18Z THE
NEXT DAY...HOWEVER...THAT WAS A STRONGER NW FLOW EVENT.
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE THIS EVENING WORDING. WILL WAIT TIL PRESS
TIME TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON LOW POPS/SPRINKLES TYPE WORDING
OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD FOG. BELIEVE FOG WONT GET REAL BAD DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...BUT IF WE DO/DID CLEAR MUCH WE WOULD REALLY GO DOWN
HARD. WILL WATCH COUPLE MORE SAT PIXS ON CLRING TRENDS.
.JKL...NONE.
HALL
FXUS63 KLMK 191938 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND TYPE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
MID/UPR LVL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGING OVER ERN PACIFIC AND WRN
CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC WITH BROAD TROF IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CONUS WITH THE TROF AXIS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE MS VALLEY. WV
LOOP INDICATED A SHRTWV INTO WRN UPR MI. SFC TROF HAD ALSO
PROGRESSED TOWARD CNTRL UPR MI. SHRTWV CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SCT
PCPN OVER UPR MI WITH SOME LINGERING PCPN TRAILING OVER NE MN AND NW
WI. 18Z RUC CONTINUES TREND OF MOVING 700-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV AND MID LVL TROF EAST OF CWA BY 03Z. SO...WL
JUST KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY.
MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AFFECTING WRN
GRT LAKES THROUGH 12Z THURS WITH DECENT INITIALIZATION AND HANDLING
OF SHORT RANGE FEATURES. HOWEVER...HAVE LEANED TOWARD ETA FOR
DELINEATION OF RAIN/SNOW.
WITH DEPARTURE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD MOTION...
LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED PCPN POTENTIAL MINIMAL FOR UPR MI TONIGHT.
850 TEMPS FCST INTO -5C TO -7C RANGE WILL PRODUCE DLT/T ONLY TO
AROUND 14C. WHILE COLDEST AIR FCST OVER WRN LAKE...SIGNIFICANT
800-700 MB DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL HAMPER LES DEVELOPMENT AND ICE
CRYSTAL/SNOW FORMATION. 1305M 850-1000 THICKNESS ONLY TO CNTRL UPR MI
BY 12Z...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN OVER THE EAST. TEMPS AGAIN AOA
GUIDANCE WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.
BACKING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SFC RDG APPROACHING ON WED
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PTSUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH
SIGNIFICANT 1000-850 DRY ADVECTION. WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO SPELL END
TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE EAST BY AROUND 15Z.
BAND OF 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CROSSES UPR MI WED
NIGHT. COND PRES DEF TO AROUND 30 MB AND LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
STRONG SHRTWV DROPS FROM MANITOBA TOWARD UPR MI THURSDAY. WHILE ANY
MOISTURE INFLOW AGAIN INSIGNIFICANT...STRONG DYNAMICS WITH POTENT
150+ JET LEFT EXIT REGION AND GOOD 850-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND WARRANTS MENTION OF
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...FOR PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MDLS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD AN
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH DEEP TROF OVER EAST AND RDG OVER WEST CONUS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT RANGE MDLS FCST OF JET/SHRTWV
MOVING TOWARD GRT LAKES FROM SRN CANADA. 72 HR AVN ALSO SUPPORTS
THIS SCENARIO. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF FROM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 12Z/17
SOLN TOWARD MORE EASTWARD POSITION OF RDG AND TROF AXES. MRF HAS
SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS TREND AND HAS FLOPPED
PERHAPS TOO FAR TOWARD THE DEEP TROF AND CLOSED H5 LO OVER ERN
ONTARIO BY 12 SAT. UKMET...WHILE MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...SEEMS
TO UNDERPLAY STRENGTH OF TROF. WILL GO WITH MRF/ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND
WITH SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO UPR MI BRINGING MAINLY -SHSN AND LES
POTENTIAL WITH NNW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -8C AND 850-1000
THICKNESS WELL BLO 1300M...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DETAILS PAST SUNDAY...MRF/ECMWF
SUGGEST ANOTHER SHRTWV WILL DROP TOWARD AREA FROM WRN CANADA WITH
SHRTWV RDG MONDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE TOWARD
TUESDAY.
.MQT...NONE.
JLB
FXUS63 KDTX 191941 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
LATEST APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EAST
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH WEAK
ISENTROPIC FORCING AS NOTED BY THE 290K PRESSURE SURFACE... AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN
TODAY AND LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST RUC IS SHOWING
850/700 MB MOISTURE AROUND 80 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY... WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH 500 MB LOCATED OVER THE
STRAITS AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ISENTROPIC FORCING THAT HELPED TO
GENERATE THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...
ALONG WITH 850 TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -2C BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HELP TO DIMINISH THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/EAST UPPER
MICHIGAN LIGHT RAIN... WHICH IS ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT DURING THE LAST
FEW APX 88D VOLUME SCANS.
A 500 MB TROUGH AND AREA OF 850/500 MB DPVA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER
WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST LOWER AND EAST
UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST MORNING FORCING DIMINISHING AND
AFTERNOON FORCING MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHWEST LOWER... WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS EAST UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER WITH SPRINKLES NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE LATEST STLT LOOPS AND RUC DATA WILL KEEP ALL AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY
THIS AFTERNOON.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KMQT 191456 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
FCST CONCERN FOR THE AFTN IS SHRA CHANCES.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE NEARING W LK SUPERIOR/NW WI.
AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MN ARROWHEAD TO W OF
KASX AND TO NEAR KRST. EXTENSIVE AREA OF -RA AND SPRINKLES WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF FA THIS MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-3C N LK MICHIGAN AND -4C LK SUPERIOR...LK ENHANCEMENT OF SHRA WAS
EVIDENT ON LOCAL RADARS IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
12Z RUC SHOWS BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE...ACROSS CNTRL
U.P. AT MIDMORNING...WILL BE EAST OF FA AROUND 21Z. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THUS...EXPECT THE MORE EXTENSIVE -RA OF
THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING AFTN AS FORCING WEAKENS.
UPSTREAM...KDLH RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF POST FRONTAL
-SHRA/SPRINKLES UNDERNEATH AXIS OF UPPER TROF. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF SHRA OVER W LK SUPERIOR INTO NW FA DURING AFTN UNTIL
SHORTWAVE PASSES.
TEMPS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY W AND N AS FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS BACK. SCNTRL FA HAS BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW PEEKS OF SUN
THIS AFTN AS VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NE WI.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KGRR 191455 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
FORECAST QUESTIONS TODAY WL BE DECIDING FATE OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PCPN FORMING AHD OF SHRTWV ROTATING UP FM OUR SOUTH ATTM AND THEN
CHCS OF PCPN FORMING ALG CDFNT APPROACHING FM MN. TONIGHT...LAKE
EFFECT WL BE MORE OF CONCERN IN CAA BEHIND FNT.
LATEST IR LOOP INDICATES SHRTWV ROTATING UP FM WI...WHICH IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN SUBTLE KINK IN ISOBARS ON LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AHD OF
INCRGLY NEG TILT TROF. RADAR LOOP HAS SHOWN STEADY SHWR DVLPMT SOUTH AND
EAST OF MQT ERY THIS MORNING AHD OF SHRTWV. MODELS INDICATE 850-500
MB MEAN RH OF > 80 PCT...ALG WITH WK Q-VECT CONV AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON 290K SFC AT 06Z OVR ERN UPR. HWVR...RUC AND ETA SHOW BEST
MSTR..QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVING NE OF UPR AFT 12Z AS
SHRTWV SLIDES TO OUR EAST. THUS...EXPECT BREAK IN SHWRS AT LEAST
UNTIL CDFNT APPROACHES LATE IN DAY. BELIEVE...NGM MOS POPS TOO HIGH
SO WL TRIM BACK TO SCT MENTION.
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCT EVNG RAIN SHWRS ALG FNT CNTRL AND
EAST...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH MID-LVL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
FNT. CAA IN WNW CBL FLOW BEHIND FNT WL CONTINUE TO BRING THREAT OF
LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO ONT-CMX-KEW AND ALGER-LUCE GRPS THRU TONIGHT PD.
MIDDLE GROUND AVN SHOWS 8H TEMPS LWRG TO -7C WRN LAKE AND -5 TO -6C
ERN LAKE BY 12Z WHICH WOULD YIELD DELTA-T OF 15-17C. CRITICAL
1000-850 MB 1300M THCKNS SHOWS -SHRA CHANGING OVER TO -SHSN AFT
MIDNIGHT WEST AND THEN TOWARD 09Z-12Z FOR ALGER-LUCE.
WEDNESDAY...FLOW BACKS WSW AND BCMS INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SCT
MORNING -SHRA/SHSN OVR ERN ZONES WILL END BY AFTERNOON. BUT 70-80
PCT RH AT 850 MB AND STEEP SFC-8H LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP CLDY SKIES
AROUND THRU PD.
NEW AVN ADVERTISES VIGOROUS SHRTWV/CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN BY LATE
THU...WITH DECENT MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND DIV ALF IN LFQ OF 120KT+
JET MAX. YET...BEST MSTR TENDS TO STAY NE OF FA SO WL KEEP THE GOING
DRY FCST. WITH SFC PRES SHARPLY TIGHTENING AHD OF THIS WAVE WILL
INTRODUCE BREEZY WORDING FOR THU-FRI.
MOS TEMPS GENLY IN LINE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
.MQT...NONE.
VOSS
mi
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT TUE OCT 19 1999
...NO UPDATES TO TFX ZONE FORECASTS...
IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS S/WV TROF ROUNDING TOP OF RDG AND MOVING SE THRU
CENTRAL ALTA/SASK THIS EVENING. NGM/ETA/RUC MODELS HINT AT S/WV JUST
BRUSHING NE MT NY 12Z. SO THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CWA
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OVERNIGHT.
FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES NEEDED
EYSSAUTIER
GTF 0000 HLN 0000 HVR 0000
FXUS65 KMSO 200222 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
MAIN QUESTION OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SCU COVERING MUCH OF NRN FCST AREA XCPT NEAR THE CST
WHERE THE CLOUDS MAKE IT THEN DISSIPATE FROM TIME TO TIME. 12Z CHS
SOUNDING IS MOIST FROM H8 DOWN & 06Z MESO-ETA/09Z RUC2 SHOW THIS
MOISTURE FIELD REMAINING RATHER STATIC THRU THE AFTN. ADDITIONAL
MID/HI-LVL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W AS WELL. FEW RW NOTED ON
88D MOSAIC WELL TO OUR W CLOSER TO NEWD-MOVING VORT NOTED ON MESO-
ETA. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY & ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS TO NOTE INCRSG
CLOUDS OVER SRN CWA. MAY ADJUST TEMPS BASED ON READINGS AT PRESS
TIME.
CWF: WILL TWEAK INITIAL SPEEDS DOWN SLIGHTLY W/ 10M WINDS AT FPSN7
16KT. WILL ALSO LEAVE WINDS NE W/ INVERTED TROF NOT SHOWING MUCH
MOVEMENT THIS MRNG.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 191350 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 18 1999
...CLOUDS/TEMPS/END OF PRECIP AFTN FORECAST CONCERNS...
FIRST -SHSN OF SEASON GREETED COMMUTERS THIS AM AS EXITING MID-LEVEL
TROF...ROTATING S/W AND CYCLONIC FLO ARND SLO MOVING ONTARIO LOW
PRES TEAMED UP TO BRING SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF TO THE RRV. KMVX 88D
INDICATES BULK OF -SHSN NOW EAST OF RRV AND SINKING S. AM IR/VIS
LOOPS SHOW LOTS OF SC UPSTREAM IN MB WITH BACK EDGE NEAR MOT WHERE
MID/HI CLOUD IS ADVANCING IN QUICK DEVLOPING WAA PATTERN.
THICKNESS TROF ADVANCES E THRU MN THIS AFTN AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES CNTRL/ERN ND. WAA NOSES TWD DVL BY 00Z WITH CAA TAPERING
OFF IN ERN ZONES. WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND H85 -6C POCKET
LINGERING IN RRV AND EAST THRU AFTN XPCT SMALL TEMP RISES WITH MUCH
OF CWA STRUGGLING TO NEAR 40F.
CUD BE SOME SUN IN WRN ZONES AS TROF EXITS AND BEFORE WAA CLOUDS
INCREASE. CURRENT WORDING OF BCMNG PSUNNY IN THOSE AREAS STILL
VALID. FEW HOLES IN CLOUD W OF GFK BUT OVERALL RRV AND EAST SHUD
HOLD MCLDY AS 12Z RUC H925-H85 MOIST FIELD INDICATES SLOW EWD
PROGRESSION. WILL CHECK LATE OBS/KMVX 88D PICS FOR LAST MINUTE
WORDING OF ERN ZONES -SHSN/FLURRIES FOR AFTN.
UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM CDT.
.FGF...NONE.
SOROKA
FXUS63 KFGF 190836 nd
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 1999
NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR BRO SET TODAY...AS IN HOU...WITH TEMPS
GETTING TO ONLY 65 DEG F. PREV RECORD WAS 67 FM 1989. HRL REPORTED
0.16 INCH OF RAFL JUST PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH MFE RECEIVING 0.01 AND
BRO A TRACE. MAX TEMPS AT 71 FOR MFE...67 FOR HRL AND 65 FOR BRO.
NORTH WINDS CONTINUED TO POUR IN AT 15 TO 20 MPH. WINDS CURRENTLY 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH CLD SHIELD AT 7K FT SOON TO MAKE
IT'S EXODUS TO THE EAST AS H5 TROF SWINGS THRU.
MDLS ALL AGREE ON CONTINUED CAA WITH GOOD INSOLATION WHICH WILL
MODERATE TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NICE FALL WX OUT THRU
EXTENDED.
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE WITH BOY020 SHOWING 7 FOOTER WITH
NORTH WINDS 21 GUSTING TO 27 KTS. WILL INCLUDE LAGUNA MADRE IN SCA
AS C-MAN DATA AND MTRPIL REFLECT HIER MAGNITUDES THAN CURRENTLY FCST
WITH RUC CONCURRING. WILL BUMP 3RD PD WINDS AND SEAS A CAT IN CWFBRO
AND NEGATE POPS IN ZPFBRO. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...MARTINEZ
.BRO...SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.(GMZ150-155-170-175-130)
FXUS64 KAMA 192046 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999
SFC HI PRESSURE TO MOV E ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVRNITE
TONITE...AS SFC LO PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACRS NORTHERN ONT. UPR LVL
TROF TO MOV E ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONITE AND THEN ACRS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WED.
MID/HI CLDS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NY THIS EVENING FROM THE SW. SFC
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. RA HAS MADE IT INTO W/SW NY
STATE AS OF 01Z.
PCPN TO START ACRS FA WELL AFT MIDNITE TONITE WITH PTYPE BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. 20Z LAMP DATA INDICATES START TIME FOR PCPN AT AROUND
08Z ALONG A LINE FROM GFL-GTB-OGS AND AFTER 10-11Z TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
BEST CHC FOR ANY MIX WITH/START AS FZRA LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN
ST LAW VLY (WITH NE FLOW PERSISTING OVRNITE)...THE NRTHERN CHAMP
VLY...AND THE DEEPER VLYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NE KINGDOM.
AREAS CLOSE THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT. THE VERY
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EXTREME NE VT MAY EVEN SEE A START AS SOME
SOLID PCPN...AS 21Z RUC FREEZING LVLS ARE LOWEST IN THAT AREA AND SFC
TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING THERE. NOT WORTH MENTIONING THOUGH.
NORTHERN NY WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE PCPN LATE TONITE...WITH PCPN
SPREADING EASTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WED. AMTS THRU 00Z
THU NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE (LESS THAN 0.50"). ETA MODEL DEVELOPING
STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE (TO THE EAST OF NJ...12-18Z WED TIME FRAME)
THAN NGM/AVN. THIS LOW TO MOV NE ACRS EXTREME SE NEW ENG ON WED. THIS
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT LOBE MOVING
THROUGH THAT REGION. IF THE ETA IS RIGHT...THEN WE WOULD MISS OUT OF
MOST OF THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PCPN...WITH MAYBE SRN VT GETTING IN ON
SOME.
NORTHERN NY AND VT WILL BE UNDER CONSTANT H85 WAA THRU AT LEAST 18Z
WED...BUT UPR LVL DYNAMIX (STRONGER H3-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DIFF VORT ADVECTION) NOT TO COME INTO PLAY UNTIL AFT 12Z WED WITH
APPROACH OF UPR TROF FROM THE WEST.
LOWERED POPS TONITE AND TOMORROW JUST A SHADE...AND MENTIONED MORE
CLDS IN THE OVRNITE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ADDED FZRA BY DAWN TO
NE/NC VT ZONE GROUPING.
WORK ZONES AVAILABLE IN AFOS/AWIPS UNDER ALBADMBTV.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY
FXUS61 KBTV 191943 vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
830 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 1999
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA.
LATEST RUC TIME/HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTHEAST...
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MARKED DRYING AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER...
20Z LAMP DATA KEEPS CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 20/12Z. SO IN
SUMMARY... SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY WITH THE MAIN QUESTION
BEING WILL THE CLOUDS CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST OR WILL CLOUDS PERSIST WITH GOING FORECAST ON
TRACK.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST...INDICATING AN IMPROVING TREND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH IS NEAR THE
LAMP FORECAST... AS THINK CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
.LSE...NONE.
KRC
FXUS63 KMKX 192019 wi
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
117 PM MDT TUE OCT 19 1999
...TRANQUIL WEATHER NEXT FEW DAYS...
MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS TEMPERATURES. MODELS STILL INDICATE
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA
TODAY...BUT HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING IT IN SATELLITE PICTURES.
LATEST RUC SAYS IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AT THIS
HOUR...BUT FEW...IF ANY...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CAN FIND NO
SURFACE REFLECTION EITHER. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THIS
FEATURE IN THE FORECAST. THIS MEANS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SURFACE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES. ON FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORCES A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS...FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD NEXT FEW DAYS...INDICATING A
QUICK WARMUP. CAN FIND NO GOOD REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...SO WILL FOLLOW THEM PRETTY CLOSE.
.PUB...NONE.
LW
FXUS65 KPUB 200855 co
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT TUE OCT 19 1999
...NO UPDATES TO TFX ZONE FORECASTS...
IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS S/WV TROF ROUNDING TOP OF RDG AND MOVING SE THRU
CENTRAL ALTA/SASK THIS EVENING. NGM/ETA/RUC MODELS HINT AT S/WV JUST
BRUSHING NE MT NY 12Z. SO THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON CWA
FORECAST EXCEPT TO KEEP DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OVERNIGHT.
FCST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES NEEDED
EYSSAUTIER
GTF 0000 HLN 0000 HVR 0000
FXUS65 KMSO 200222 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1000 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
CLOUD SHIELD HASN'T ADVANCED EWD AT ALL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS SLOWLY PUSHING EWD. INVERTED SFC TROF IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE ATLC COAST AS INDICATED BY SFC WINDS AND
PRESSURE FALLS. HOWEVER...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA OF RAIN WL
ONLY SLOWLY END W TO E AND CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH E OR MTNS. 06Z ETA
AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL SLOWLY BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON OVR
THE MTNS BUT HOLD OFF TIL 21Z-23Z E OF THE MTNS. FCST WL REFLECT THIS.
CURRENT FCST MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
NO CHGS 2ND OR 3RD PDS ATTM.
NEXT VIGOROUS CDFNT THRU HERE FRI NGT AND SAT. BEHIND THIS FNT... SOME
COLD WX. (COLD FOR OCTOBER FOR THIS AREA). MORE ON THAT LATER.
.LWX...NONE.
FXUS61 KLWX 201402 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
MORNING MAP SHOWS INVERTED TROF ALONG COAST. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SFC-H850 PER MSAS AND RUC WAS AIMED AT CT AT MID MORNING. 09Z RUC
SHOWS SFC LOW OFF BID AT 21Z...SO EXPECT CONTINUED SE FLOW INTO
CAPE/IDS AND DVLPG NE FLOW INTO BOS AND VCNTY. WRN ZONES IN LIGHT
FLOW WITH BIAS TWD THE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN
IN PLACE THRU EARLY AFTN...THEN SLOW TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E LATER
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
WITH NE FLOW CONTINUING THRU LATE AFTN...EVEN IF RAIN TAPERS IN ERN
ZONES THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS/DRIZZLE IN PLACE.
24-HR OBSERVED RAINFALL UPSTREAM WAS .3 TO .4 INCHES. KBOX STP
SHOWS UP TO 0.9 INCHES THRU 945 AM...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE-I84
CORRIDOR. WITH SOME INCREASE IN LIFT...EXPECT FCST OF .5 TO 1.0
INCHES ACRS REGION WITH MOST OVER HILLS FROM SRN WORCESTER CO ACRS
RI/CT BORDER. A FEW INDIVIDUAL RAIN GAGES IN THE SRN ZONES MAY GET
OVER AN 1 INCH.
WL GO WITH RAIN/HVY AT TIMES...ENDING IN WRN ZONES LATE. WITH
CLDS/PCPN AND TREND TO N FLOW...WL PUSH MAX TEMP FCST DOWN A CPL DEG
IN INTERIOR ZONES. WILL KEEP AS IS ALONG COAST.
MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON LINE.
.BOX...SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT NARR BAY.
WTB
FXUS61 KBOX 200736 ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
805 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE AND KGRR-88D RADAR LOOPS REVEAL SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED 0.01 MEASURABLE HERE AT KGRR.
A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL DATA...NAMELY THE 06Z
MESO-ETA AND RUC II RUNS...SHOWS A H5 VORT LOBE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
COUPLE THIS LIFT GENERATION WITH THE H85 COLD POOL MOVING THROUGH
(WITH TEMPS -3 TO -4C CREATING DELTA T VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS
)AND LOW-LEVEL RH (WITH 80 PERCENT PLUS INDICATED AT H85)...END
RESULT IS LAKE EFFECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND WIND FLOW INDICATES THE FAVORED AREAS FOR SEEING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE THE I-96 AND I-94 CORRIDORS. LATEST IR
SATL LOOP CLEARLY SHOWS THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS CONFINED TO THESE
AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF MUSKEGON...MONTCALM...AND
GRATIOT COUNTIES.
ANOTHER QUESTION/CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. SFC TEMPS CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NRN AND SRN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA (WHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING) TO
MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WEST OF KGRR. SFC TEMPS WILL BE TOO
WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH SOME EVAP COOLING
COULD TAKE PLACE (WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S)...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND THEREFORE WILL DO LITTLE TO
BRING DOWN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
GET A FEW ICE PELLET OR WET SNOWFLAKE REPORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WE
DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
.GRR...NONE.
GREENE
FXUS63 KAPX 200757 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT WED OCT 20 1999
SUNNY AND MILD DAY IN STORE. HAVE UPDATED WINDS IN THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE MESONET DATA SHOWS A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CHANGED MOSTLY SUNNY
WORDING TO SUNNY SINCE CU ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND NO
MID OR HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN FOR SEVERAL LIGHT YEARS UPSTREAM.
LATEST RUC INDICATES SOME WARMING AT 850 DURING THE DAY... AND WITH
A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOTH 850 AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE MAX
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S.
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
D FLOYD/33
FXUS64 KTSA 200906 ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999
09Z RUC MODEL SHOWS WARM ADVECTION CUTTING OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
850 MB TROF AXIS SLIPS BY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALSO
TERMINATES THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. UPPER FORCING
INCREASINGLY COMES INTO THE PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL
PVA CREATES UPWARD Q VECTOR FORCING DESPITE THE WEAK 850 MB COOL
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DIVERGENCE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAY HELP AS WELL. WITH SOUNDINGS SATURATED
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOWING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DRYING UNTIL 00Z...WILL
TRIM POPS VERY LITTLE FOR THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT.
GIVEN STABLE SOUNDINGS AND LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
WILL REMOVE TSTM MENTION FROM EASTERN ZONES. CROSS TOTALS PEAK THIS
MORNING AND THEN FALL OFF WHILE PARCELS LIFTED FROM 850 MB ONLY
REACH CAPES OF +100 J/KG...SO ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REALLY STRUGGLE TODAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
NE TO N FLOW PERSISTS AND THE FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE LATE TO
BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY WITH LIFT. MAY ADJUST TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 1
CATEGORY BY ISSUANCE TIME.
.GSP...NONE.
HG
FXUS62 KCAE 201317 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 AM CDT WED OCT 20 1999
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCD WITH WAA LINING UP WELL WITH 295 THETA
SFC UPGLIDE/SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LTE TO 30MB OVR WRN ZONE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...FM LATEST RUC/ETA GUIDANCE. LATEST
VSBL IMAGERY SHOWING MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDS DVLPG AS IT PUSHES INTO
DRIER AIR OVR ERN MN. HENCE WL OPT FOR P/S WORDING IN ERN AREAS AND
PD OF M/C SKIES IN CENTRAL/WRN AREAS AND WL DROP SML POP IN NE.
TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT MAY TWEEK DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN ERN AREAS DUE
TO THICKENING CLDS. ALSO INCREASES WNDS SLIGHTLY IN MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS OF WEST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT/TROUGH IN
CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
.MSP...NONE.
KAVINSKY
FXUS63 KMPX 200855 mn