FXUS04 KWBC 130727 PAA QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 326 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION VALID OCT 14/1200 UTC THRU OCT 15/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES... MDLS RMN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE LWR OH VLY H5 CLOSED LOW ENEWD THIS PD..WHILE OPENING IT UP..AS THE UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SYS DIGS SSEWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE H85 FLO HAS TURNED TO WLY/WSWLY ACRS MUCH OF THE GULF CST STATES EVEN AHD OF THIS SYS..SO GULF MSTR IS RAPIDLY GETTING CUT-OFF INTO THIS FEATURE. ATLC INFLO OF MSTR WON'T BE THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYS EITHER..AS ONLY VRY WK 2NDRY SFC DVLPMNT IS XPCD VCNTY OF THE DELMARVA LT IN THE PD. GIVEN THIS TREND OF LESS MSTR AVBLTY..ESP AS COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO..XPC RNFL AMTS WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF TO BE LGT TO MDT AT BEST..WITH ONE RELATIVE RNFL MAX LIKELY NR WHAT RMNS OF THE OPENING UP CNTR MAINLY THRU WV..WITH ANOTHER RNFL MAX PSBL NERN NC NNEWD INTO THE DELMARVA..WHERE SOME OF THE MODEST ATLC INFLO OF MSTR DOES GET TAPPED. THE ETA AND GFS QPFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING WHERE THESE "RELATIVE" RNFL MAXES WL BE..BUT THE OVERALL LGTR ETA AMTS ARE PREFERRED..GIVEN THE SYS IS WKNG AND THE MSTR IS LESSENING. ...TX... AS PER THE PMDHMD..WE PREFER THE STGR GFS SOLN CONCERNING THE NRN STREAM SYS NOW DIGGING SSEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS. THE MAIN DIFF THIS PD BTWN THE PREFERRED GFS SOLN AND THE ETA SOLN IS THAT THE FNTL PASSAGE OFF THE TX CST IS JUST A LTL SLOER IN THE GFS..AND THERE IS A LTL MORE SFC LOW DVPMNT ALG THIS FNT IN THE GFS SOLN. THE SLGTLY SLOER GFS SOLN ALSO ALLOWS MORE MSTR TO POOL ALG THE BNDRY AS IT PASSES THRU SERN TX. IN GENL..HAVE LEANED TWDS THE GFS HERE..AND GIVEN THE STG LOW LVL CNVGNC XPCD VCNTY OF THE FNT..POOLING OF PWS TO ABV 1.50 INCHES VCNTY OF THE FNT..AND RT ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS..XPC THERE TO BE QUICK AND LCLY HVY CNVCTN DVLPMNT LT IN THE PD FM VCNTY OF THE BIG BEND EWD TO OFF THE CNTRL/UPR TX CST. SOME GTR THAN 1 INCH RNFL AMTS LIKELY..ESP CLOSER TO THE TX CST. ...CNTRL/SRN HI PLAINS..CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES... STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WITH THE DIGGING H5 TROF OVR THE CNTRL STATES WL SUPPORT CONTD POST FNTL PCPN THRUOUT THIS REGION..WITH A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLO AIDING RNFL POTNL. HOWEVER..MSTR WL BE QUITE SPARSE AND SYS WL BE A FAST MOVR..SO XPC MOST RNFL AMTS TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE. DAY 2... ...GRT LAKES/NORTHEAST... SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE MID-ATL REGION WL BE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY INVOF THE GRT LAKES REGION AND SHD LEAD TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE UPR OH VLY AND ACRS THE ERN LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE SFC LOW MORE DIRECTLY ASSOC WITH THE FMR SRN STREAM MID LVL S/WV WL BE LIFTING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. XPCT A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT TO MDT RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACRS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND JUST INLAND. THE ETA AND GFS DESPITE THEIR TIMING DIFFS BOTH AGREE IN PULLING 1.25 INCH PWS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH MDT H8 THETA-E ADVECTION. XPCT THEIR TO BE SOME TYPE OF DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL TROF TOO WHICH WL BE LIFTING NWD. THE BETTER MID/UPR LVL FORCING THOUGH WL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GRT LAKES REGION AS NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS DROP SEWD AND A NEW CLOSED LOW BECOMES DOMINANT. MANUAL PROGS. MOIST DEEP LYR CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS SHD KEEP A BROAD THREAT OF SHWRS ACRS THE ENTIRE GRT LAKES AREA. THEIR WL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOCALLY. PCPN AMTS FRM THE GRT LAKES AREA EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLN WHICH HAS A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. XPCT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMTS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY UNDER A 0.25 INCH INLAND AND OVR THE LAKES REGION WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WL BE LESS ORGANIZED. ...SERN STATES... ALL EYES WL BE ON A POWERFUL S/WV WHICH THE GFS MDL HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW DROPPING THRU THE MS VLY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SUPPORTS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF OF MEX BEFORE THEN MOVG THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN APPALACHIANS. THE GFS DEPICTS A BAND OF VRY STG THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE STG MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS. SRLY H8 FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 50 KTS ACRS THE ERN GULF AND STREAKING INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND PWS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE UP TO NR 1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE NOSE OF 50 KT FLOW. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL BECOME VRY IMPRESSIVE AND MUCH OF THIS WL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH OPTIMAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SUCH STG MOISTURE ADVECTION/H8 FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS SHD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STG CONVECTIVE BAND WITH VRY HVY RAINFALL RATES WHICH SHD SWEEP THRU THE ERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE VRY STG DEFORMATION FORCED RAINFALL WL BE NOTED INVOF THE TN VLY BUT THERE WL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH PWS HERE. THIS WL BE MOVG NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PD AS THE DEEP LYR TROF BECOMES NEG-TILTED WHICH WL FURTHER ENHANCE THE UVVS AND TAP MORE MOISTURE FRM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH TIME. MANUAL PROGS LEAN HEAVILY TWD THE SLOWER/WETTER GFS SOLN. XPCT A BROAD AREA OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMTS WITH ISOLATED AMTS PERHAPS TO NR 2 INCHES. ...E SLOPES OF NRN ROCKIES... A POLAR FRONT WL BECOME DRAPED ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS SWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMT OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WITH SOME S/WV ENERGY SHEARING SEWD ALONG THE BNDRY FRM SWRN CANADA. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A BAND OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED MOISTURE WL BE IN PLACE FOR A CHILLY RAIN TO DEVELOP AND SOME SNOW ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN. THE ETA AND GFS BOTH A BAND OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH AMTS ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS JUST E OF THE DIVIDE. TOOK AN ETA/GFS BLEND OF QPF FOR THIS AREA. ...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY... XPCT SOME LGT WARM ADVECTION RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW ACRS THE UPR MS VLY AS ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS PLUNGE SEWD INTO PLAINS THIS PD. THE ETA AND GFS SUPPORT SOME PCPN AMTS UP TO NR A 0.25 INCH ACRS NRN MN WHICH WL BE WHERE SOME OF THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE WL BE FOUND. OVERALL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL LOW CENTER WL BE TO THE NORTH IN CANADA THIS PD. MANUAL PROGS FAVOR AN ETA/GFS BLEND OF QPF HERE. TERRY/ORRISON GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 14/12Z 0.01 548997 548988 547982 544973 539963 536959 529955 521956 516956 511958 503961 498964 491969 482982 473995 468002 463009 460014 455021 453032 453038 456042 458045 462047 467050 475051 480055 485060 488063 490068 494074 500078 509072 514094 518101 522103 525104 532101 537094 541087 544078 546062 547052 546042 544028 542017 545008 548997 0.01 503897 519862 522841 515812 502810 484804 469798 454788 438775 418751 401719 392708 377701 365708 355721 344736 325753 318764 326783 345812 354836 360860 365872 371878 381883 388887 395897 394906 373916 350919 321921 309912 300905 296899 292896 287896 284899 279906 276920 268948 265982 264000 265009 266018 268025 272034 281045 288058 296068 306079 312084 317087 319089 324088 328084 330077 331072 330068 327060 329059 332060 334064 338072 344076 347078 352078 357074 367073 370073 371076 372079 375082 377082 381079 385075 387076 388081 390082 392081 395076 399072 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287024 290023 295016 300010 305003 309994 310984 310968 0.50 398768 397765 396765 394762 393759 391758 391760 391764 393767 395767 397768 399770 398768 0.50 388823 394822 399822 402819 404806 404796 403794 400794 391796 383800 377807 374812 373820 378823 384823 388823 0.50 370791 373778 375771 373763 366755 361758 356765 354776 356784 358789 362794 364797 367798 368795 370791 0.50 303979 302959 301950 298942 294935 291932 286937 284942 282949 282956 281972 281988 281997 283006 286009 292008 299997 301991 303982 303979 1.00 297961 296951 294946 292943 288944 286955 285964 285973 286979 288983 291984 295973 297961 1.50 293962 293954 291953 289956 288967 289971 291970 292968 293962 24HR QP VT 15/12Z 0.00 490019 494981 496946 483903 491850 514816 0.01 561974 561963 559953 553939 549931 547923 543916 539909 536904 532902 524899 520895 518888 517883 514876 512865 511855 511846 510841 512827 514815 516799 517786 515775 512767 503757 501753 496750 491747 486747 482747 475748 470750 467752 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