FXUS63 KLOT 292040
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
240 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON FCST/GRID:
FIRST WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW MOVING EAST OF CWA THIS AFTN SO THAT POPS 
DIMINISHING TO CHC CATEGORY THIS EVENING AS INVERTED TROF FROM THE 
LWR MS VLY SLIPS EAST. UPR RIDGING BLDG OVER IL/IN EARLY TNGT BUT IT 
TOO SLIPPING EAST NEAR MORNING. GFS AND ETA NOT AGREEING WELL ON 
SYSTEM PLACEMENT. HAVE BEEN LEANING TO GFS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND 
LUCKING OUT WITH IT. BUT EVEN GFS HAS A WEAK OMEGA SHOT MOVING OVER 
NRN IL TOWARD MRNG...SO THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THRU THE DAY 
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS PSBL. 

RIGHT NOW DEWPTS HAVE BEEN IN MID 30S SO THAT ANY SNOW FALLING MELTS 
OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WITH THIS INVERTED TROF OFF TO OUR EAST 
NOW...WINDS BACKING MORE TO NORTHEAST AND DEWPTS SHUD BE ON THE DOWN 
TURN FOR OUR NEXT SHOT TUES NGT.

THIS NEXT SHOT WILL OCCUR WITH THE H5 TROF NOW IN SRN PLAINS KICKING 
NE ACROS MO TUESDAY. SFC LOW PLACEMENT IS CLOSER TO CWA WITH ETA 
THAN GFS AND THUS ETA MUCH MORE GENEROUS WITH MSTR AND SUBSEQUENT 
SNOWFALL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN WAVE MOVES THRU.

WITH GFS WUD APPEAR THAT MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BE FROM LASALLE AND 
LIVINGSTON ON NE THRU CHI AND VALPARAISO WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE 
BUT MAYBE MORE LIKE 1 TO 3 DEPENDING ON RAIN/SNOW TIME RATIO. IF ETA 
WERE IN CHARGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SNOWFALL WUD PROBABLY DOUBLE. THUS 
WITH DISUNITY IN MODELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY 
NIGHT BUT WUD ADVERTISE TO ALL TO KEEP MONITORING EACH LATEST 
DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER H5 LOW QUICKLY ZIPS NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY SO THAT MIDWEEK 
SHUD BE DRY. NEXT SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...BUT APPEAR 
ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTH OF AREA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF SWINGS BY. 
WILL REPEAT THIS FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH UPPER TROF IS A LITTLE DEEPER 
THEN. SHUD THEN BE DRY BUT WARMING A BIT ABOVE THE NORM OVER THE 
WEEKEND. 

RLB

&&

.AVIATION...

RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP TO 
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU EARLY THIS 
EVENING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL HAVE SWITCHED OVER 
TO MAINLY SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. A MIXTURE OF RAIN WILL 
LIKELY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW...AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. CIGS 
MAINLY AROUND 1KFT WILL DROP TO IFR AS PRECIP CONTINUES THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THRU THE PERIOD 
POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TO HIGH MVFR FOR A TIME TUES MORNING BEFORE 
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT 
LOWEST VIS 1-2SM BUT ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW COULD REDUCE LOCAL 
VIS UNDER 1SM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SLOWLY BECOME ENE TONIGHT 
THEN EAST TUES.

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.
.LK MI...NONE.    

$$