AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 253 AM MST MON MAR 6 2006 .DISCUSSION...ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS LACKING EVEN OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 18Z-24Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND MOISTURE IMPROVES. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SNOW SO WILL KEEP BOTH IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE TONIGHT. BOTH GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE STRATUS SHOULD BE ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY EVENING WITH AT LEAST BREEZY NORTH WIND ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES SOME. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND LOWERS MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SO WILL GO WITH MET GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS TONIGHT. CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS AGREE WITH WARMER MET MOS SO SO WILL LEAVE AS IS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 17 TUESDAY BUT AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT HEATING SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOME TUESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON IF THERE IS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HINGE UPON WIND SPEEDS AND RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON SINCE FUELS ARE CRITICAL WITH NO GREENUP YET. THE NAM MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ANY CONCERN. BOTH THE RUC AND THE NAM INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN COLORADO. RH VALUES SHOULD MEET CRITERIA. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON WATCH TO ALLOW FOR BETTER COORDINATION WITH AGENCIES. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ FS ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 256 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. EASTERN CWA MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS EVEN DOUBTFUL. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 08Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE MOMENT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TOWARD 06/12Z THIS MORNING...BUT GET WASHED OUT DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL AFFECT WILL FORM AS AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH DDC'S CWA. THIS WILL MEAN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY BE NICE AND MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 75 AT EHA...THEN EVEN WARMER TUESDAY WITH EHA/LBL HIGHS 76-78F. NEITHER DAY'S FORECAST HIGHS WOULD BE RECORDS (CWA RECORDS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW)...BUT QUITE UNSEASONABLE NONETHELESS. SINCE TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ILL DEFINED...IT MAY MEANDER BACK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD SEE A LITTLE LOCALIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE NEAR HAYS OR LARNED. NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...SO STAYED WITH THE EXISTING LOW 20 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MY EASTERN ZONES. A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND IN 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA AND 5-15MPH IN NORTHWEST HALF. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZIER WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25KT GUSTING TO 35KT RANGE. HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ELEVATED DANGER OF WILDFIRES. MODEL COMPARISON FROM 06/00Z SHOWED ETA80 AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN GFS (AND NGM) BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN E/NE SECTIONS OF CWA...WHILE THE ETA IS DRY. USED THE GFS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS. PREFER THE WARMER TEMPS OF THE NGM AND ETA...HOWEVER...OVER THE GFS. GFS SEEMS TO BRING IN OPAQUE CLOUD COVER TOO FAST AND THUS DOES NOT HAVE AS WARM OF MAX TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS DOES THE ETA...NGM AND RUC. DAYS 3-7... TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM IS THE REAL QUESTION THIS FORECAST. THE NEW 00Z GFS RUN IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION...AND EVEN THE ECMWF APPEARS JUST A TAD FASTER AS WELL WITH A VORT MAX OVER NEW MEXICO 00Z THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE FROM EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD SECTOR PCPN DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DDC CWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH 30S IN THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP MORE THAN SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD EXIST IN THE COLD SECTOR FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IN WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS (MY NORTHWEST ZONES). TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING IN THE NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT JET/STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MORE THAN LIKELY...AND WITH A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOMEWHERE...ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST NOW WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED AGAIN FIVE OR SIX MORE TIMES...SO IN THE INTEREST OF LIMITING FLIP-FLOPPING TEMPS...WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 73 44 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 74 43 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 75 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 74 44 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 69 44 73 40 / 0 20 0 0 P28 71 47 74 46 / 0 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN12/25 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 305 PM EDT MON MAR 6 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON)... AFTER LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR...AND SAT TRENDS SHOWING CLOSED H500 LOW DROPPING SE THRU NW INDIANA...AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX JUST TO THE SW OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...STRONG JET MAX OF 120KT MOVING ACROSS S IL AND S IN INTO KY HELPING WITH THE PRODUCTION OF THE PRECIP. VIS SAT SHOWS SOME EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE BWG AREA NORTH TO HNB...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH FAST MOVING VORT/PRECIP DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 09Z SREF AND RUC FOR THE NEXT 24HRS...THEY SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE H500 LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED VORTMAX DROPPING SE OUT OF NW INDIANA AND THEN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FILLING IN THE THE ERODED AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK AS IF EVERYTHING WOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXED IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. WITH BL TEMPS JUST TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP FALLS...SEE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS POSSIBILITY. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA FROM THE SE SOMETIME AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SERIES OF RH ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS THE CLOUDS EXITING AS WELL FROM MAINLY THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH STARTING AROUND 06Z NORTH TO NEAR DAYBREAK(12Z) ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SFC RIDGING DROPS INTO THE REGION AS A LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL FALL MORE RAPIDLY AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION...TO AROUND 30 ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE MAIN AXIS OF SFC RIDGING DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS RISE DURING THE EARLY MORN HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR -5C TO NEAR 0 TO +2 C BY LATE AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE. --SCHOTT .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS TO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE FRONT IN THE REGION WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND CROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THURSDAY. A 60-70KT 8H JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DYNAMICS WILL BECOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE 5H NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS IS THE CASE WITH MANY EARLY MARCH SYSTEMS STABILITY WITH BE MARGINAL HOWEVER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POST FRONTAL FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST SO COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, IN FACT HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS. (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MID RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION AND OF THIS BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY THE CLOSER IT IS TO OUR CWFA WITH BETTER THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. GFS ENSEMBLES KEEPS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND WE WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HIGHS. --JA && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 949 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006 .UPDATE... WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING CONCERNING SKY CONDITION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH MIXING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDETECTABLE IN THE BAROCLINIC ANALYSIS BUT WAS HIDING SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA AS OF 15Z. RUC80 SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NONEXISTANT AND WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE PER SHV 12Z RAOB... DECIDED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN SOUTH TODAY. TEMPS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD RISE AREAWIDE AS CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS WEAK AT BEST. BUMPED MLU UP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH FCST HIGHS FURTHER NORTH BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13. && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 13 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL TROF INTO THE WEST COAST...A RDG OVER THE PLAINS...AND A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. OVER THE WEST...A WELL-DEFINED LEAD SHRTWV WAS MOVING THROUGH NRN CA. A MID LVL LOW/VORT OVER CONTINUED SO MOVE SE LEAVING A SHRTWV RDG IN ITS WAKE OVER THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY WHILE A WEAK TROF WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EAST HLF OR UPR MI WHILE MVFR CLOUDS PERSISTED W OF KIMT-KCMX BENEATH 875 MB INVERSION...PER 19Z TAMDAR SNDGS. DRY AIR WAS ENTRENCHED UPSTREAM WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER ERN UPR MI AND ONTARIO. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE AS WEAK DRY ERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...NAM/RUC 925-900 MB RH AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WEST MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SFC RDG AXIS MOVES TO JUST E OF UPR MI BY 12Z WITH ONLY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. SO...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AOB GUIDANCE VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY CNTRL WHERE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER 20S. TUE...SRLY FLOW AN WAA INCREASE AS THE RDG DEPARTS TO THE ERN LAKES AND A TROF MOVE E FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE LEAD SHRTWV APPROACHES THE WRN LAKES...A BAND OF STRONG 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO UPR MI...FUELED BY 50 KT SSW 850 MB LLJ. SNOW CHANCES WERE BOOSTED TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST HALF WITH THIS FEATURE. EVEN THOUGH 3-4 G/KG WOULD BE AVBL...WITH RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER UPWARD MOTION AND UNFAVORABLE SNOWGROWTH(MOISTURE IN -12C TO -17C OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM)...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ONLY AROUND AN INCH(10/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO). FCST SNDGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY BEHIND THE AREA OF BEST LIFT...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF -FZDZ BEHIND THE SNOW. WED NIGHT INTO THU...MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV EJECTS FROM THE SW CONUS TROF. THE UKMET/ECMWF LOW TRACK INTO WRN LWR MI(PER HPC) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE MORE WRLY GFS TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH...MDLS THERMAL FIELDS STILL SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SFC-700 PRFL WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEST HLF...BUT OFTEN HAS A COOL BIAS WITH SUCH SCENARIOS. FRI-MON...THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT MID LVL AND SFC RDG SHOULD REDUCE ANY PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MDLS VARIABILITY RECENTLY AND...A SLGT CHANCE WAS RETAINED. DURING THE WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MDLS BLEND WOULD BRING PCPN CHANCES WITH NEXT SHRTWV AND SFC LOW BY SAT FOLLOWED BY RIDGING AGAIN SUN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TIMING CHANCES WITH FAIRLY FAST SW MID/UPR FLOW TOWARD THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1025 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006 .UPDATE... WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX DROPPING SE OVER SW WI. THIS FEATURE IS NICELY RESOLVED AROUND THE H5 LEVEL BY THE BLRW3 PROFILER. THE 12Z 291K ISENTROPIC RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STRONGEST UPGLIDE AND MOIST ADVECTION NOSING INTO NRN IL AHEAD OF THIS VORT. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS BEEN NOTED ON THE GRR RADAR... RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE OVER THE SW CWFA (SEE PNSGRR). LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND METAR VSBY REPORTS INDICATE A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. THE AREA OF SNOW HAS CORRESPONDED WELL WITH H8-H7 LAYER DPVA IN THE RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM A LOW IN THE CAROLINAS THROUGH KLOT...WHICH HAD ENHANCED LOCAL SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED OVER UPPER MI. LATEST RUC PROGS AND CURRENT FORECAST SHOW THE SFC TROUGH PUSHING S THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MENTIONED UPPER VORT. RUC H8-H7 DPVA AND 290K THETA SURFACE PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CWFA WITH THE SWD PUSH OF COLDER AIR...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS INSOLATION KICKS INTO GEAR. MADE VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE NEARSHORE FORECASTS AS WINDS AND WAVES LOOK WELL ON TRACK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TJT mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 216 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING PCPN THIS MORNING AND THEN TIMING OF PCPN WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 5H RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE EXITING SE WI AND MOVING INTO SRN LWR MI WHILE AN UPR LOW FROM CENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD SRN WI. TO THE WEST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE WEST COAST. TODAY...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT SNOW OVER WI BDR GENERALLY FALLING APART AS 700-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850-500 MB Q-VECT CONV HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUS...HAVE KEPT IN A LOW CHC POP OVER THE WI BDR COUNTIES THIS MORNING FOR LINGERING SNOW AND ALSO POSSIBLE PATCHY FZDZ AS MID LVLS DRY OUT BY LATE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF BLDG MID-LVL RDG SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW THE NORTHERN PLAINS 5H RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE HIGH PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO WILL DESCEND OVER UPPER MI TONIGHT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA (UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 00Z CWPL SNDG AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH) ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP...THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED MINS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE (ZERO OR A FEW DEGREES BLO ZERO) FOR FAVORED RADIATING COLD SPOTS OVER WRN INTERIOR. KEPT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DUE TO RECENT DAYTIME SNOWMELT AND PRIME RADITATIONAL COOLING. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN SSE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -1 TO -4C BY LATE AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL ALLOW READINGS TO RISE QUICKLY. KEPT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOW 40S IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF PAC SYSTEM FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PREFER NAM ON SLOWER TIMING OF PCPN INTO AREA GIVEN DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THAT PREVIOUS FCST WAS BASED ON NAM DID NOT CHANGE PCPN TIMING...SO BROUGHT A CHC OF -SN INTO SW COUNTIES BY AROUND 06Z WED AND SPREAD CHC INTO CENTRAL ZONES BTWN 09Z-11Z. FCST SNDGS SUPPORT SNOW AS PCPN TYPE TUE NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO ERN COUNTIES WED MORNING THEN MID-LVL DRYING FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH SOME DZ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LYR WARMING. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THU WITH TRACK OF SRN STREAM SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MAY BE TRICKY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GOING FCST OF CHC OF RAIN ACROSS CWA AND LET DAY CREW TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z AND 12Z MODELS TO DETERMINE IF WRN COUNTIES MAY NEED A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW PUT IN FCST. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 206 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006 .DISCUSSION... A SEDATIVE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION...ANCHORED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO BUILDING IN FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS CALM THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WAS THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE IN TODAYS PACKAGE. THEN MORE STORM CHANCES LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SUGGEST AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SPRINGLIKE SENSIBLE CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)... THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORN BELT AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE A COOL NORTHEAST WIND INTO THE OZARKS AND OFFER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. DESPITE THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MID 60S LOOK GOOD FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...WHILE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE MUCH COOLER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...SWIFT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ULTIMATELY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ETA SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE TONGUE AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WITH A DRYLINE PLACED ROUGHLY FROM PRATT KANSAS TO ALTUS OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST...HOWEVER...A WEAKLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OZARKS WILL TRY TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING. BUT I CAN NOT IGNORE THE MOISTURE RETURN ALOFT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...AS GFS40 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST AROUND 500J/KG OF AVAILABLE CAPE WHEN LIFTING A PARCEL FROM AROUND 825MB UPON MAXIMIZED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS ALMOST NIL. A TUESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS. MASS CONVERGENCE AND PRESSURE ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BECOME FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ADVANCING IN WITH THIS FEATURE...SO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHTS PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSED ACROSS MY NORTHERN COUNTIES. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. SINCE THE MAIN BELT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL PROCESSES MAY HELP PROMOTE TO STRONG TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAYS DAY PERIOD. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BACK INTO THE 50S AND MAINLY A DRY DAY. I WILL CAUTION THE NEXT SHIFT THAT IF WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ANY AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THAN SEVERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED. LONG TERM (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)... AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE SCALE CANADIAN CYCLONE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH POPS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION...PROMOTING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE OZARKS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY. THE GFS DERIVES A SIGNAL WITHIN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING - SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THAT STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY YIELD SHOWERS AND THUNDER. ULTIMATELY LOOK FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN. EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CRAMER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z SGF/JLN TAFS...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL...STEEP INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING HYDROLAPSE ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FOG AFTER REVIEWING LATEST KSGF RAOB AND RUC FORECASTS. MMT && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 117 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006 .AVIATION (6Z-6Z)... INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CONFLUENCE OF THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR TO BE FOUND SW OF KDAY NR A IND/CVG LINE EARLY TODAY. H8 TROF WILL WORK THROUGH FROM N-S DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A H5 LOW AND MAY SPARK SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...POSSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE EAST BUT STILL AFFECT CMH/LCK TAFS FOR A GOOD BIT LONGER THAN OTHER SITES THIS MORNING. LOWEST CIGS WILL PASS FROM KDAY AND NORTHWEST TO THE CVG/LUK AREA BY DAYBREAK AND IS NOTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING. AFTER THE TROF PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CUT ANY LINGERING LLVL CLOUDS OR MIST. AM NOT SO CONFIDENT IN THE H8 TROF ALONE SPARKING SHOWERS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING ABOVE THE MOISTURE FOR SCT ACTIVITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FOR THE CWA. LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT FROM N TO S DURING THE LATE DAY. FRANKS && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... (ISSUED 833 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO. KILN RADAR SHOWS A LOT OF LIGHT RETURNS OVER FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADD A MIX INTO DAYTON AS LATEST RUC AND NAM SUGGEST SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW. ALSO WANTED TO PLAY DOWN ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LIGHT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 32 WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING. ACROSS THE NORTH ADDED ACCUM TO GRASSY AREAS. OTHERWISE JUST DID SOME REWORDING. ALSO RAISED LOWS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 30. HIGHER TDS ACROSS INDIANA...30 TO 32...WILL WORK IN AND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING BELOW 30S. TIPTON (ISSUED 430 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... AREA IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW ABOUT TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT. LARGE SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES FOR TONIGHT. LOW'S TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S MODELS INDICATED. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW TO BE MORE PREVALENT...THOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYERS COOLS FROM EVAPORATION. THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE A WHOPPER IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE MITIGATED BY WARM GROUND AND ATMOSPHERE. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW EXITS EAST EARLY MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL COME INTO PLAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEPART SOUTH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER...BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY IN WESTERN ZONES. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO UNDERGO A CHANGE WITH A MEAN TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE W AND STG RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A WARM AND MOIST SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A SERIES OF SFC WAVES EJECT NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD WARM FRONT TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE GRTLKS WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHD OF THIS WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL WED MRNG. INITIAL SFC LOW TO EJECT FROM NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP AND THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACRS THE NW WHERE BEST MSTR AND LIFT WL EXIST. S/W TO TAKE ON A NEG TILT WITH NEXT DEEPER SFC WAVE EJECTING NE FROM THE LWR MS VLY THU INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI MRNG. ELEVATED INSTBY INDICATED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI. HAVE SPREAD LKLY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ALONG WITH THE MENT OF THUNDER. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP DURG THE AFTN FRI THRU FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT ENHANCED CHC OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP SAT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH FROPA FINALLY COMING THRU EARLY ON SUNDAY. AGAIN HAVE ADDED THE MENT OF THUNDER SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTBY INDICATED. HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO WRMR MEX GUID TEMP VALUES THRU THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 212 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTER. SURFACE DATA SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE MAINLY SNOW WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. BOTH RECENT RUC AND NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, AND SO THIS IS WHAT WAS FORECASTED. AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, EXPECT RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, INITIATING AN ONSET OF DRY WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LESSENING CLOUDS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL, ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLES OF MARCH. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING ALL MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND A SUBSEQUENT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE BEST PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE TIME THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES. CONSEQUENTLY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY, AGAIN RAIN, WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE COOLER, BUT WITH THE UPPER FLOW STILL WITH PACIFIC ORIGINS, SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION... THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS CAN CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS (3SM -SN OVC020) AT KZZV UNTIL 23Z. AFTER THAT THE TREND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, ACCORDING TO RECENT NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS, WILL BE LESSENING CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE ALTOCUMULUS TO CIRRUS RANGE. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT SPEEDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1039 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FORECAST BASED UPON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. RUC SHOWS UPPER VORT OVER THE REGION WHICH IS PUSHING THE TSTRM ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO FURTHER UPDATES EXPECTED. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ VALLE tn