AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 230 PM MST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...120KT N/S ORIENTED JET CORE PASSING OVER ERN CO ATTM ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC...SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. THIS PLACES NERN CO UNDER STG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT PRODUCES A STRONG MTN TOP SUBSIDENCE LAYER AND LOW AMPLITUDE MTN WAVE. MM5ROC AND NAM CROSS-MTN WIND COMPONENT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SFC WINDS INCREASING AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DUE TO THE N-NWLY COMPONENT OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THIS WIND TRANSPORTING DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OR ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE AIRMASS OVER NERN CO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY REMAINS QUITE DRY AND STABLE SFC AND ALOFT AS HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN TEMPS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER ON THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. GREATEST WARMUP IN THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR. MTN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP...ALTHOUGH VERY COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN LOWER REACHES OF THE MTN VALLEYS SUCH AS MIDDLE AND NORTH PARKS. .LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER COLORADO WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE EARLY MONDAY...BUT AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. BIGGEST NEWS IS THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE COMING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT THAT COLD AIR WILL COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A WHOPPER OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AIDING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHOT OF RATHER DEEP UPSLOPE COULD PROVIDE MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER AND DOES BEAR WATCHING WITH REGARD TO FRONTAL TIMING AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL. AFTER THIS INITIAL BLAST...LOOKS LIKE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN COLD AND SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATER THIS WEEK. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER WITH WEDGE OF COLD AIR EAST OF THE ROCKIES. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BAKER/BARJENBRUCH co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 611 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZFP/GRIDS... 320 PM CST EARLIER LAKE INFLUENCE APPEARS TO HAVE VANISHED SINCE THIS MRNG AND DIDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH. HOWEVER THIS SNOW EVENT MORE INFLUENCED BY CYCLONIC CONVECTION WITH NEW CONVECTION ALONG LAKESHORE MOVING INTO COOK COUNTY AND BEING FED LAKE MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS QUITE UNSTABLE AS IF IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ADDING LOW LVL THERMAL LIFT OVER LAND TO ENHANCE OR PROMOTE MORE CONVECTION. MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR BACKING OF WINDS AT ALL LVLS THIS LT AFTN AND EVENING SO THAT ADVECTION OF SHOW SHOWERS INITIALLY MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH NOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THIS EVENING AS SOLAR HEATING IS SHUT OFF. CAN ALREADY SEE CELLS MOVING SE AT RFD. THIS WILL MAKE NERN IL A PRIME ZONE OF CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY KEEP OCNL SW- NERN IL/NWRN IN THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE BFR DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. STILL APPEARS RATHER UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT BUT MID LVLS DRIER LEAVING SC DECK TO 4K OR 5K ON TOPS FOR SUNDAY. THIS INSTABILITY CARRIES INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING WEAK SECONDARY SFC FRONT MIDDAY WITH POST FNTL H8 TEMPS SQUEEZING OUT MORE FLURRIES THRU THE AFTN. AFTER THAT SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO MS VLY FOR THE EVENING. FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO WEST MONDAY AND INTRODUCING WAA FOR A CHANGE. THIS IS BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A PASSING CLIPPER TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TUESDAY. UPR FLOW BENDS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AS UPR TROF ACROSS CANADA SWINGS DOWN ROCKIES. SAGGING HTS IN THE WEST ALTER FLOW TO MUCH WARMER SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE MIDWEST WHILE DEEPENING SFC LOW IN SRN PLAINS. THIS DRAWS GULF MOISTURE...MAKE THAT WARM GULF MOISTURE...UP MS VLY SO THAT TEMPS AND DWPTS ON THE RISE RATHER QUICKLY WHILE RIDING ON 50KT LOW LVL JET. WE MAY BE TALKING THUNDER BY THAT TIME BUT AM LEAVING IT AS RAIN FOR MOST OF CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SFC LOW KICKS OUT TO MICHIGAN THURS EVENING PROMPTING STRONG CAA TO CHANGE LINGERING PCPN INTO SNOW THURS NGT. SHUD TURN COLD AND DRY FRIDAY AND SAT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C OVER LK MICH ON SAT. FLOW IS NW SO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHUD INUNDATE MICHIGAN. MBR && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS... IMMEDIATE FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS VSBYS/CIGS WITH CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RECENT KORD ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 700 HPA. WHILE NOT ACTUALLY LAKE EFFECT...SHSN APPEAR AIDED BY MOISTURE SUPPLIED BY NE FLOW OFF LAKE...AND RESULTING MASS/MOIST CONVERGENCE OVER NE IL. 88D INDICATING HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY CORES OVER IMMEDIATE NW/W CHICAGO SUBURBAN AREAS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO 1/4-1/2SM AND OVC003 WHEN SIMILAR SIGNATURES PASSED OVER ASOS SITES AT KORD/KMDW. MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE APPEARS TO FAVOR KDPA AREA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE PERHAPS KEEPING MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS JUST WEST OF KORD/KMDW. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A LIFR TEMPO FOR DPA...KEEPING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KORD/KMDW. KRFD FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR JUST A FEW FLURRIES...AND KGYY MAY MISS OUT ON HEAVIER SHSN TOO...SO HAVE STAYED MVFR THERE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL AS FCST SOUNDINGS FROM RUC/META/GFS ALL SLOWLY DECREASE LAPSE RATE THROUGH 700 HPA. SHOULD SEE END OF SIG SHSN THREAT FOR TAF SITES BY 06Z HOWEVER...AS HGTS BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT WITH EXIT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND RESULTANT SHORT WAVE RIDGING BETWEEN TROUGH AND NEXT S/WV WHICH APPROACHES SUNDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE SUNDAY...MAY SEE SOME SCT FLURRIES THOUGH FOR NOW EXPECT LITTLE IN WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTING PCPN AND NOT CONFIDENT FOR A TEMPO ATTM. WIND WISE...NNE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS BECOMING MORE NNW THIS EVENING...THEN STAYING NORTHWEST AROUND 310-320 DEG THROUGH SUNDAY. A LITTLE TRICKY INITIALLY WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY IN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH SHOULD SEE A DECIDEDLY NW SHIFT NEXT FEW HOURS. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 915 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .DISCUSSION UPDATED... CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE BEST HANDLED BY THE RUC MODEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FORMING ACROSS LK MI AND DOWNWIND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE DAYTIME HEAVY SNOWS WERE IN PART DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE 850MB THETAE RIDGE BELOW -35F 500MB TEMPS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC BASED CAPE. THE LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH FORT WAYNE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTIVE TRAITS WITH 25-35DBZ ECHOES. I FEEL THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. I EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 1 INCH AT INDIANAPOLIS TO 2 OR 3 TOWARD MUNCIE AND EAST OF MUNCIE. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY. OMITT && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING COASTAL NOW OVR GA/SC AND GAINING STRENGTH. ACROSS SECTIONS OF INDIANA/KY/IL CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS HAVE SET UP CREATING AREAS OF VARYING SNOWFALL TOTALS. BAND ACROSS CWA APPEARS TO BE MVG SLOWLY SOUTH AND EXTENDS FROM FARMLAND IN RANDOLPH COUNTY SOUTHWEST THROUGH PRINCES LAKES IN JOHNSON COUNTY AND INTO JACKSON COUNTY. ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS AT H5. DO BEGIN TO SEE A FEW ISSUES BY 60 HRS REGARDING SFC FEATURES. GFS NUDGES HIGH PRESSURE INTO SRN FA BY THIS TIME WHILE NAM KEEPS ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH OF STATE. STILL...OVRALL DIFFERENCE IS RATHER MINOR IN REGARDS TO WX. FEATURES TEND TO RESOLVE BY 66HRS AND ONCE AGAIN AGREE SOMEWHAT. WL GO AHEAD A USE MODEL BLEND. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WL BE -SW CHC TONIGHT. TIME SECTIONS KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. BACK EDGE OF UPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS STATE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -SW ACROSS FA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS. WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR CTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF FA WITH ONLY SCHC POPS OVR EAST. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ERN AND CTRL SECTIONS OF FA. MOS GUIDANCE VERY CLOSE REGARDING LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. WL USE BLEND. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE SUN. TIME SECTIONS CONT TO KEEP LOWER CLOUDS AROUND. BUFKIT ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL KEEPING THESE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. ONCE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES STATE...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WX CONDITIONS. LOW CLDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE. FOR NOW...PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS ACROSS FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...DO EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDINESS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVRNGT. WL REFLECT THIS IN GRIDS. MOS GUIDANCES LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR TEMPS SUN AND SUN NGT. SEE NO REASON NOT TO USE BLEND. ONCE UPPER TROF PASSES EAST OF FA...UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WL ALLOW A BREAK FROM SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD STATE BY WED NGT INTO THUR MORNING. AT PRESENT...TEMPS APPEAR ON THE WARM SIDE KEEPING ANY PRECIP IN LIQUID FORM. AS FNT CROSSES STATE...COLDER TEMPS MV IN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL HAPPEN ONCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP IS WELL EAST OF FA. WL KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR THU NGT. WL HAVE TO MONITOR SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT THINGS COULD CHANGE. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 700 PM EST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CWA. && $$ JB in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1012 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE... AN INTERESTING MESOSCALE FEATURE SHOWING UP THIS MORNING MANIFESTED ON RADAR IMAGERY AS A PERSISTENT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE INDIANA COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE. THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF DECATUR TO HARTFORD CITY. SURFACE OBS WOULD SUGGEST SOME FORM OF BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION WITH WEST CENTRAL OHIO DOMINATED BY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS WHILE MANY OF THE NORTH/CENTRAL INDIANA OBS SHOWING N/NNE FLOW. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS AND HOLDS IT TOGETHER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WEAK BOUNDARY BECOMES MIXED OUT AND DIFFUSE. HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY POPS FOR A 5 COUNTY AREA SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMS. OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM AWAY FROM THIS BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER WORDING GOING ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS. UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM ALREADY ON THE STREET. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER N INDIANA TODAY AND TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN VORT MAXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z. EXPECT MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE WEST OF SBN SATURDAY GIVEN N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. HAVE THEREFORE MENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN TAFS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WENT DOWN TO 3SM AT FWA GIVEN RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF IFR VISIBILITIES. SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER LOW AND CORE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GFS 500 MB TEMPS AND ACARS DATA SHOW -35C TO -37C AT 500 MB...SO WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TODAY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY. GENERALLY RAISED SNOW CHANCES TODAY...BUT KEPT IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. APPEARS WEAK FRONT HAD JUST PASSED GRR AND WAS DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND REACH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE COLDER IN THE NORTH TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FRONT...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS IT LOOKED EARLIER. RUC13 AND ETA12 INDICATED ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN BERRIEN CO AND WESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN MANY OF THE EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. LONG TERM... LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CARRYING OVER INTO SUNDAY INITIAL LONG TERM CONCERN W/LONGER TERM PROBS RELEGATED TO RETROGRESSIVE HGT PATTN ACRS NOAM AND DVLPG NEG PNA. 925MB ANALYSIS OFF 00Z NAM SUGGESTING A BIT BTR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTG W/EQL BASED DIFFERENTIAL AOA -20C. THIS IN CONJUNCTION W/LONG AXIS FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF SHORE PARALLEL CONV DVLPG ALG ERN SHORE LOOK TO RESULT IN DECENT SINGLE BAND POTENTIAL. HWVR PROB STILL REMAINS W/INLAND EXTENT OF POSSIBLE BAND AND ALL IMPORTANT POSITION. 00/06Z INDICATION WOULD POINT TO BEST ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF A THREE OAKS TO WALKERTON LINE ALTHOUGH SOME EWD SHIFT NOTED INTO SUN AFTN. WILL BUMP NW CORNER TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT. AFT THAT...ATTN TURNS TO INTERESTING WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. 00Z GUIDANCE BASICALLY ALL OVR THE PLACE ESP GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS W/NO TWO SOLUTIONS ALIKE. HWVR 18Z OP GFS AND NEW 00Z ECMWF OFFER REASONABLE CONTINUITY W/H5 HGT EVOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND DETAILS OF 18Z GFS USED FOR GRIDS WHICH ALLOWS FOR DISTINCT FRONTAL WAVE TO DVLP ALG INTENSIFYING FNTL ZONE ACRS CNTRL US. ON WED STG NRN STREAM JET TRANSLATING THROUGH NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW POLAR FNT TO PUSH SOUTH AND STALL VCNTY SRN LAKES WHILE INTENSE LL WAA DVLPS DOWNSTREAM CONCURRENT W/LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACRS CO. TEMPS AT THIS POINT SEEM TO FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN BUT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS RANGE WARRANTS KEEPING GOING RAIN/SNOW MENTION. THEN FOR THU/FRI...PLAINS FNTL WV EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SUB TROPICAL JET SHIFTS NE INTO SRN LAKES. THIS ALLOWS COLD AIR TO FILTER A BIT FURTHER S ALG INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT AND COULD FUEL QUITE A SNOW EVENT ACRS AT LEAST NW CWA. HWVR DIFFICULTY LIES W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT AND WHERE RAIN/MIXED PRECIP/SNOW LINE WILL LAY OUT ALTHOUGH ELONGATED H5 TROUGHING FM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE 4 CORNERS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MERIT 00Z OP GFS DEPICTION OF SIG MID LAT CYCLONE DVLPMNT MID WEEK BUT A MUCH MORE WEAKER SFC REELECTION. WILL KEEP GENERALIZED RAIN OR SNOW MENTION GOING AT THIS POINT UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH OFFERS ENOUGH TIME BY THEN FOR COLD AIR TO WRAP SOUTHWARD TO FAVOR ALL SNOW MENTION. STAY TUNED AS THINGS COULD GET UGLY LATER NXT WEEK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER LONG TERM....HOLSTEN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 630 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER N INDIANA TODAY AND TRIGGER SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN VORT MAXES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z. EXPECT MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE WEST OF SBN SATURDAY GIVEN N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. HAVE THEREFORE MENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS IN TAFS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WENT DOWN TO 3SM AT FWA GIVEN RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF IFR VISIBILITIES. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK UPPER LOW AND CORE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. GFS 500 MB TEMPS AND ACARS DATA SHOW -35C TO -37C AT 500 MB...SO WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TODAY AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY. GENERALLY RAISED SNOW CHANCES TODAY...BUT KEPT IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. APPEARS WEAK FRONT HAD JUST PASSED GRR AND WAS DRIFTING SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY AND REACH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE COLDER IN THE NORTH TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FRONT...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS IT LOOKED EARLIER. RUC13 AND ETA12 INDICATED ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN BERRIEN CO AND WESTERN LA PORTE COUNTY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. ALSO...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN MANY OF THE EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. && .LONG TERM... LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CARRYING OVER INTO SUNDAY INITIAL LONG TERM CONCERN W/LONGER TERM PROBS RELEGATED TO RETROGRESSIVE HGT PATTN ACRS NOAM AND DVLPG NEG PNA. 925MB ANALYSIS OFF 00Z NAM SUGGESTING A BIT BTR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTG W/EQL BASED DIFFERENTIAL AOA -20C. THIS IN CONJUNCTION W/LONG AXIS FETCH AND INDICATIONS OF SHORE PARALLEL CONV DVLPG ALG ERN SHORE LOOK TO RESULT IN DECENT SINGLE BAND POTENTIAL. HWVR PROB STILL REMAINS W/INLAND EXTENT OF POSSIBLE BAND AND ALL IMPORTANT POSITION. 00/06Z INDICATION WOULD POINT TO BEST ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF A THREE OAKS TO WALKERTON LINE ALTHOUGH SOME EWD SHIFT NOTED INTO SUN AFTN. WILL BUMP NW CORNER TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT. AFT THAT...ATTN TURNS TO INTERESTING WRN TROUGH DVLPMNT. 00Z GUIDANCE BASICALLY ALL OVR THE PLACE ESP GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS W/NO TWO SOLUTIONS ALIKE. HWVR 18Z OP GFS AND NEW 00Z ECMWF OFFER REASONABLE CONTINUITY W/H5 HGT EVOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AND DETAILS OF 18Z GFS USED FOR GRIDS WHICH ALLOWS FOR DISTINCT FRONTAL WAVE TO DVLP ALG INTENSIFYING FNTL ZONE ACRS CNTRL US. ON WED STG NRN STREAM JET TRANSLATING THROUGH NRN LAKES WILL ALLOW POLAR FNT TO PUSH SOUTH AND STALL VCNTY SRN LAKES WHILE INTENSE LL WAA DVLPS DOWNSTREAM CONCURRENT W/LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACRS CO. TEMPS AT THIS POINT SEEM TO FAVOR PRIMARILY RAIN BUT TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS RANGE WARRANTS KEEPING GOING RAIN/SNOW MENTION. THEN FOR THU/FRI...PLAINS FNTL WV EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SUB TROPICAL JET SHIFTS NE INTO SRN LAKES. THIS ALLOWS COLD AIR TO FILTER A BIT FURTHER S ALG INCREASING THERMAL GRADIENT AND COULD FUEL QUITE A SNOW EVENT ACRS AT LEAST NW CWA. HWVR DIFFICULTY LIES W/DEGREE OF SFC DVLPMNT AND WHERE RAIN/MIXED PRECIP/SNOW LINE WILL LAY OUT ALTHOUGH ELONGATED H5 TROUGHING FM HUDSON BAY SW INTO THE 4 CORNERS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MERIT 00Z OP GFS DEPICTION OF SIG MID LAT CYCLONE DVLPMNT MID WEEK BUT A MUCH MORE WEAKER SFC REELECTION. WILL KEEP GENERALIZED RAIN OR SNOW MENTION GOING AT THIS POINT UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHICH OFFERS ENOUGH TIME BY THEN FOR COLD AIR TO WRAP SOUTHWARD TO FAVOR ALL SNOW MENTION. STAY TUNED AS THINGS COULD GET UGLY LATER NXT WEEK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKIPPER LONG TERM....HOLSTEN in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 930 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM...EVENING UPDATE STEEP AFTERNOON LAPSE RATE LED TO SOME RATHER VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS FOR A TIME INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOW THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER..WITH CONT CYCLONIC FLOW AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL RH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. --21 .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)... SNOW IS THE WORD OF THE DAY...EVEN FOR THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THAT MISSED IT LAST NIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE SEEN TEMPS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S..WITH SOME SEEING MORE SUN ACROSS NEAR THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND PUSHED AT OR JUST ABOVE 40. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE SUN...HAVE CAUSED MANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE CWA. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH QUICK ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA WAS THE IMPACT OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT FROM LAKE MI...BUT LK ERIE!! THIS WAS A FIRST FOR ME HERE AND AFTER CONFERRING WITH OTHER REGIONAL OFFICES...MOST ALL SAID THE SAME. MOISTURE PULLED WEST FROM LK ERIE ACROSS NW OH INTO INDIANA AND THEN SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KY...HAVE SPAWNED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 65. WHAT A AFTERNOON... NOW FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING...WITH SMALL QUICK ACCUMS OF LESS THAN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS POSSIBLE...A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA MAY OCCUR. STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUFKIT SHOW STRONG VALUES NEARING 9 TO 10 C/KM...DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. RUC HAS BEEN WELL AHEAD OF THIS THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND NAM. ALL SHOULD QUIET DOWN SOME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS. ON SUNDAY....WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FROM LK MI MOISTURE STREAMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE KEPT CHC/SCTD WORDING. MOS BLEND FORE TEMPS STILL LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. --SCHOTT .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE UPPER LEVELS WILL UNDERGO A BIG CHANGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY DEEP TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 8H RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ALSO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY AS 8H READINGS INCREASE 16C FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED. (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A BROAD WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DEVIATE DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN U.S.. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HOLD THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE REGION. FOR THIS PERIOD WE WILL COMPROMISE AND HOLD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DROP POPS BELOW 14% SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF OPERATIONAL AND AVERAGE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES HAVE MAINLY BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. IF THE WARMER EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. --JA && LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 255 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)... SNOW IS THE WORD OF THE DAY...EVEN FOR THOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THAT MISSED IT LAST NIGHT. CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE SEEN TEMPS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S..WITH SOME SEEING MORE SUN ACROSS NEAR THE LOUISVILLE AREA AND PUSHED AT OR JUST ABOVE 40. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE SUN...HAVE CAUSED MANY CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE CWA. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WITH QUICK ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE LATE NIGHT TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA WAS THE IMPACT OF LAKE MOISTURE NOT FROM LAKE MI...BUT LK ERIE!! THIS WAS A FIRST FOR ME HERE AND AFTER CONFERRING WITH OTHER REGIONAL OFFICES...MOST ALL SAID THE SAME. MOISTURE PULLED WEST FROM LK ERIE ACROSS NW OH INTO INDIANA AND THEN SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KY...HAVE SPAWNED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 65. WHAT A AFTERNOON... NOW FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING...WITH SMALL QUICK ACCUMS OF LESS THAN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS POSSIBLE...A FEW HIGHER TOTALS WHERE SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA MAY OCCUR. STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUFKIT SHOW STRONG VALUES NEARING 9 TO 10 C/KM...DUE TO THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. RUC HAS BEEN WELL AHEAD OF THIS THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND NAM. ALL SHOULD QUIET DOWN SOME LATE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS. ON SUNDAY....WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FROM LK MI MOISTURE STREAMING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE KEPT CHC/SCTD WORDING. MOS BLEND FORE TEMPS STILL LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. --SCHOTT .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE UPPER LEVELS WILL UNDERGO A BIG CHANGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY DEEP TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 8H RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ALSO A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY AS 8H READINGS INCREASE 16C FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WED. (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A BROAD WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE MODELS DEVIATE DURING THE LATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN U.S.. THE GFS TAKES THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HOLD THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE REGION. FOR THIS PERIOD WE WILL COMPROMISE AND HOLD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DROP POPS BELOW 14% SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF OPERATIONAL AND AVERAGE GFS ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES HAVE MAINLY BEEN USED FOR THIS FORECAST. IF THE WARMER EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. --JA && LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1045 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .LATE MORNING UPDATE... DEFORMATION AREA PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS MOVING INTO EASTERN KY...JUST A FEW ISOLATED TO SCTD SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE LUNCHHOUR. WILL LET THE SNOW ADVISORY DROP AT NOON EST...AS SCHEDULED...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS TO OCCUR WITH THE SCTD SNOW SHOWERS..AND THOSE ARE MOSTLY IN AREAS WHERE NO SNOW HAS FALLEN...MAINLY SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF THE LOUISVILLE METRO. RUC SHOWS VERY WELL...AS DOES THE NAM12...MOISTURE FROM THE LAKE MICH BEING PULLED DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCING DECENT LAPSE RATES. THESE WILL HELP THE SCTD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND TRANSIT SOME EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LITTLE CAA SO TEMPS WILL BUMP SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO NO CHANCGE NEEDED THERE. NEW ZONES WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON. -SCHOTT MESO UPDATE... 06Z MESOETA DID A FAIR JOB PICKING UP THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL CWFA AT THIS TIME. IT KEEPS THE BAND OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...SLIDING IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT 700-500HPA FRONTOGENESIS...FN VECTORS AND FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE...OMEGA...AND RH...THE MODEL PEAKS THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND AROUND 15Z FORTY MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CARLISLE TO CAMPBELLSVILLE TO SCOTTSVILLE AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AT A CROSS SECTION CUT FROM WESTERN INDIANA TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE 2D FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE SEEN SLOPING UPWARD TOWARD COLDER AIR IN THE 700-500HPA LAYER COINCIDENT WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER LEXINGTON AT 15Z. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BAND AT LEAST MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. SO...AT THE VERY LEAST WE DO EXPECT THE BAND TO KEEP GOING AS IT BUDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD...POSSIBLY GAINING A BIT OF STRENGTH AROUND MID-MORNING. THE BAND SHOULD THEN BE LARGELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY THE LUNCH HOUR...AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE LMK CWFA BY MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR ALL COUNTIES CURRENTLY AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS SNOW BAND. 13 451 AM EST MESO UPDATE... BAND OF SNOW LOOKING RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR FROM CYNTHIANA AND PARIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH HODGENVILLE TO RUSSELLVILLE WITH DBZ RETURNS AS HIGH AS 29 DBZ...ESPECIALLY AROUND MERCER COUNTY. A CHECK OF WEATHER CAMS IN LEXINGTON...CYNTHIANA...CARLISLE... RICHMOND...HARRODSBURG...AND DANVILLE SHOWS THAT ROADWAYS ARE WET BUT FREE OF SNOW...SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS APPEARS TO NOT BE TOO DEEP...AND VISIBILITIES ARE GOOD. AIRPORT VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SNOW ARE FROM ONE AND A QUARTER TO 2 MILES. SO IT APPEARS THAT THIS BAND OF SNOW IS NOT GETTING OUT OF HAND...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO INCREASE TODAYS EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON FOR ALL OF THE COUNTIES BEING AFFECTED BY THIS BAND OF SNOW. 13 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SURFACE LOW NEAR DOTHAN ALABAMA AT 07Z WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND THEN TO JUST OFF OF THE JERSEY SHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM IS REVEALED NICELY ON NATIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST STORM WILL MOVE OUT...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. VERY INTERESTING BAND OF SNOW SET UP AROUND MIDNIGHT GENERALLY FROM CYNTHIANA TO BARDSTOWN TO MORGANTOWN...AND HAS STAYED PUT. WEATHER OBSERVATIONS PLUS CALLS TO COUNTIES UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW REPORTED ABOUT HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 300 AM EST. MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE WELL AT ALL. RADAR TRENDS HOWEVER SHOW IT NOT ONLY HANGING IN THERE...BUT INTENSIFYING AND WIDENING AS WELL. SO...WOULD EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND WILL LIKELY DROP MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AWAY FROM THAT BAND...LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT SWELLED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY HAD LARGELY FALLEN APART BY 07Z...BUT WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF RE-ORGANIZING BY 08Z. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORY GOING AND WILL TACK ON A FEW COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM LITTLE IF ANY IN INDIANA TO AN INCH IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...INCLUDING FRANKFORT...BOWLING GREEN...AND LEXINGTON. THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SLIDE IN ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OF GENERAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ANOTHER GENERAL INCH TONIGHT AS THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...WITH 07Z READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 32 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE IN AREAS WHERE IT WAS PRECIPITATING. FOR HIGHS TODAY I TOOK THE 07Z READINGS AND ADDED JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THUS...ROADS SHOULD REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE TODAY EVEN IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL. FOUR INCH SOIL TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE AROUND 40 DEGREES. ALSO OF INTEREST...WIDESPREAD DENSE FREEZING FOG FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. AS OF 08Z THE FOG HAD STAYED WEST OF THE LMK CWFA AND SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ANY DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TELL CITY TO SALEM. 13 .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... MAJORITY OF THE MODEL RUNS THIS EVENING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. TROF OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE PD. WITHIN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...A GOOD NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROF. THESE UPPER LEVEL VORTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. IT APPEARS THAT FAVORED AREA WILL BE THE BLUEGRASS REGION SO HAVE KEPT 40 POPS IN THERE FOR SUNDAY. LATEST STATISTICAL MOS GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR SUNDAY HIGHS TOPPING IN THE LOWER 30S. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... EXTENDED FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE CONTINUITY FROM THEIR 12Z COUNTERPARTS. DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AS TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW LOOKS TO GO ZONAL BY AROUND MIDWEEK...WITH THIS IN MIND...FEEL THAT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS...EXCEPT FOR THE MON/TUE PERIOD. FEEL THAT WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN PARTS OF THE CWA THAT WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT...THUS WENT A LITTLE UNDER THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HERE. FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO GO MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE H5 CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. 00Z GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS A HEALTHY MID-LAT CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN SHUNTS IT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AROUND THIS PERIOD...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUN APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEAN. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU-FRI AS FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN GIVEN THE WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH SETTING UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS A LITTLE MURKY OUT THAT FAR BUT A RAIN TO WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRI INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. -33 && LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...SNOW ADVISORY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BUTLER-FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1105 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE...WELL...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT INLAND THUS FAR...EVEN THOUGH 1000-850MB WIND FIELDS DEPICTED BY ALL MODELS AND ANALYSES ARE LESS THAN 5-10KTS AND WE HAD SEEN INDICATIONS OF LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. FEEL THAT WITH DECENT LES PARAMETERS...-12C H8 AIR...INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 5500 FEET...AND LIGHT N TO NW FLOW KEEPING PERIODS OF MODERATE LES SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTENT ALONG MAINLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN INCLUDING GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER VIGOROUS...WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. THESE LES PARAMETERS HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS...WHICH SHOULD GET THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN (IN NW SNOWBELTS) INTO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...WILL LET ADVISORY GO THROUGH TOMORROW. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 940 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY...BUT MESOSCALE LOW ROTATING INTO NE LUCE COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS FEATURE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING. ACROSS NRN LOWER...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH SNOW RATES LIKELY TOPPING AN INCH PER HOUR ARE SEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE EMMET COUNTY COAST. THIS PROCESS JUST STARTING...AS DEEPER MOISTURE NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE. CURRENT FORECAST OF HOLDING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OR ALONG THE FIRST 20 MILES OR SO INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED...ARE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO PERIODICALLY BATTER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT? CURRENT OBSERVATIONS NOT HELPING WITH CALM WINDS UP AND DOWN THE COAST...IF SFC WINDS TRY AND GO EASTERLY...INDICATIONS WILL BE THAT THE SNOW MAY PREDOMINANTLY HANG OFF THE COAST. LATEST NAM/RUC 1000-850MB WINDS IF ANYTHING ARE SLIGHT WEAKER AT 5-10KTS RATHER THAN 10 KTS. (THIS WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE SEEMS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT...BUT FOR NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER...THIS COULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR COASTLINE LOCALES). THE WEAKER WINDS OFF THE LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE FIRST 20 MILES INLAND OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (WHEN WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS) WHEN SOME OF THE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE SNOW. CANNOT ARGUE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON AT LEAST THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IF I WERE TO DO ANYTHING...I BELIEVE I WOULD WANT TO ACTUALLY CUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ONLY HAVE FLURRIES GOING IN CURRENT FORECAST...AND DO SEE SOME LOWERING CEILINGS (~5KFT OR SO) ARRIVING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES COULD FALL FROM THIS AT ANY TIME...SO ATTM WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OR UPDATES. WILL RATHER KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION/INLAND EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO ALTER THE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WILL JUST HAVE TO INCLUDE THOSE AMOUNTS UP THROUGH EMMET COUNTY WHERE STRONGEST ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY WORKING TOWARD. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...NORTHERN MI REMAINS IN GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...WITH BULK OF THE ACTION FOCUS ON DEVELOPING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM. NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD DEAL OF FLAT SC ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY. NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING APART. FARTHER NORTH...LOOKS LIKE SOME REMNANTS OF A LAKE VORTEX SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. A SECOND VORTEX NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT SPREADING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THAT AREA FOR THE MOST PART. BAND OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER ALONG TAIL END OF SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF HUDSON BAY... BACK TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT DEAL WITH EFFECTS OF THIS MOISTURE BAND...PRIMARILY WITH REGARDS TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FORCING WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS WEAK...AND BY ITSELF WOULD PROBABLY NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. BUT THE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD... WITH ONE EXCEPTION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND -14C...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850MB. DOWNSIDE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...1000-850MB WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND CONTINUED LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY KEEP A LOT OF ENHANCEMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE AND KEEP CONVECTION DISORGANIZED (I.E., NO BANDING). THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...COULD EASILY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW SMALL SCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES SET UP AND WHERE RESULTANT CONVECTION IMPACTS. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PERSISTENT MESOLOW IN SURFACE OBS NORTHEAST OF WHITEFISH POINT (EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT WHITEFISH/ANJ/YAM/ CIU)...WILL LIKELY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...QUESTION IS WILL A LOT OF THIS COME ONSHORE OR REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE. SAME STORY FOR NORTHWEST LOWER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT AGAIN HOW MUCH OF THAT MAKES IT ONSHORE WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION. SO WILL PLAY SNOW AMOUNTS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD (NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAD GOING)...2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG US-31 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...TAPERING THINGS BACK QUICKLY INLAND WHERE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE REDUCED. BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING IF THINGS GET OUT OF HAND LOCALLY. JPB LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL TEMPORARILY BE EJECTED AS THE NOR/EASTER MARCHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME QUICK SHOTS OF SNOW WITH IT THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION MODELS AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE CLIPPER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -14C AND -16C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE ON THE LAKES ATTM...SO WILL NOT REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO ICE BUT ACTUALLY INCREASE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING AOA 850 MB AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED TO AROUND -15C AND BELOW LIMITING DENDRITIC GROWTH SLIGHTLY. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH CLIPPER RAPIDLY TRACKING EAST AND DRIER AIR MAKING AN ENTRANCE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONE TO TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND NEAR PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE THE NEXT CLIPPER IN THE SERIES WILL ROLL INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE -16C RANGE BACKING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE EXTENDING TO NEARLY -20C WITH WAA PUSHING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AROUND TWO INCHES WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CA TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS CLIPPER A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS CLIPPERS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTHWARD. MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WITH THIS CLIPPER SHOULD BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -6C...KEEPING THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO A MINIMUM. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-800 MB WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GULF OPEN AND WAA OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MOISTURE SEEMS APPROPRIATE. ONE AREA OF CONCERN TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...850 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS OF 540 DAM SPLITTING THE CWFA. WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT CHANGE FROM SNOW ATTM...BUT A WINTRY MIX IS CURRENTLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AND CENTER OVER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MORE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY/THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN DESIRABLE...BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING. A COUPLE OF MAJOR POINTS REMAIN PROMINENT IN THE MODELS...FIRST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SYSTEMS MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SECOND...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIKELY PRODUCE DEVELOPMENT AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US (CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING). ALL POINTS CONSIDERED CURRENT GFS SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT TRACK..INTENSITY AND TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TREND TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW... MIZ016-019>021-025-026-031 && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LES TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL TROF DOMINATING THE ERN CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SRN PLAINS. A WEAK SHRTWV TROF WAS LOCATED NEAR CYQT-KDLH WITH ANOTHER TRAILING OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...WITH THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS (AOB 15KT) A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER SE LK SUPERIOR AS PART OF LAKES AGGREGATE TROFFING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY NW WINDS PREVAILED ACRS THE WRN LAKES. EVEN THOUGH 01Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG WITH 850 MB TEMP NEAR -14C AND INVERSION TOP NEAR 8K FT(-21C) SUPPORTS LES...WITH WEAK WINDS...SHSN HAVE BEEN MAINLY CELLULAR/TRANSIENT. 00Z NAM AND LAPS WRF SUGGEST THAT SLOWLY VEERING WINDS WILL KEEP LES MAINLY OVER W UPR MI AND LOCATIONS E OF MARQUETTE. BEST 950 MB CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED BTWN IWD AND ROCKLAND AND TOWARD KP53(AIDED BY LAND BREEZE). UPSTREAM MOISTURE REMAINS FAVORABLE PER KDLH TAMDAR SNDG...BUT INVERSION HGTS WERE BLO 5K FT. SO...GOING FCST REMAINED ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTEMENTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006. UPR LEVELS SIMILAR TO YDY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVR W CANADA/CONUS AND TROUGH OVR E CANADA/CONUS. PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM E COAST TOWARD N FL WITH SFC HIGH OVR MAJORITY OF COUNTRY. SFC LOW OVR GA/SC WILL DEVELOP INTO MAJOR EAST COAST STORM BY SUN AM WHILE NW-N FLOW WITH SEASONABLY COLD AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE UPR LAKES HELPING TO SPUR ON SOME LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGINNING TO CREST W RIDGE WILL RESULT IN LOW PRES CLIPPER SYSTEMS OVR THE UPR LAKES MON AND TUE. ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH HELPS PROPEL A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS INTO N PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY CONCERN IS EXTENT OF LK EFFECT SNOW THROUGH MON. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. LIFT FM FEATURE IS WEAK BUT THERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLURRIES OVR N MN INTO ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. TAMDAR SOUNDING FM YQT AND 12Z SOUNDING FM KINL SIMILAR WITH FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE TO 800MB AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -16C. N WINDS TO START NIGHT QUICKLY BACK NW AND THIS WILL PUT EMPHASIS FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVR W CWA AND OVR ALGER THROUGH LUCE COUNTIES AS H95 CONVERGENCE FM NAM AND GFS INDICATES. EXPECT LK EFFECT TO BECOME MORE ORGAINIZED AS NIGHT PROGRESSES COMPARED TO ECHOES CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR. SINCE THE LIFT IS WEAK TREATED THIS LIKE A PURE LK EFFECT CASE AND THAT RESULTS IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF LESS THAN 4"/12HR BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT VEERING OF WINDS SUN AM COULD PUSH SNOW SHOWERS INTO AREAS FAVORED BY N WINDS SO THE HIGHER POPS ALONG ALL LK SUPERIOR ON SUN LOOK FINE. LOOKS LIKE THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING BY LATE SUN EVENING INTO SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY ON THE KEWEENAW. OTHER THAN THE NAM...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FIRST CLIPPER LOW PRES MOVING TO N MN BY 12Z MON. THIS ALLOWS BLYR WINDS TO BACK W/SW OVR MN INTO W HALF OF UPR MI. EXCEPTION IS OVR MOST OF LK SUPERIOR AS COLD NW FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED. RESULT IS AREA OF SHARP CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVR W LK SUPERIOR INTO MIDDLE KEWEENAW PENINSULA BTWN 06Z-09Z MON AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING WELL INTO MON AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS ON KEWEENAW FOR THE PERIOD AROUND 5KFT WITH TEMPS AT H85 NEAR -15C. THIS IS AN OKAY SETUP FOR PURE LK EFFECT WITH WATER TEMPS RUNNING AROUND +2C ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER...GFS SHOWS AND UKMET/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING PROFILE WHICH RESULTS IN LK ENHANCEMENT FOR KEWEENAW. +18C DELTA T/S VERY GOOD FOR LK ENHANCEMENT. NAM IS MUCH DRIER...JUST SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A HINT OF UPPER LEVEL JET/DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER KEWEENAW SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM. THE MAIN QUESTION IS MOISTURE. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL INDICATE RIBBON OF HIGHER H85/H7 RH SLIDING INTO W LK SUPERIOR. WHILE THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH VRY DRY SOUNDING BLO H85. YET WITH HINTS FROM GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE SUN EVENING INTO MON EVENING. WINDS BACK ENOUGH TO THE SW LATER MON NIGHT TO AT LEAST DISRUPT BAND ORGANIZATION IF NOT END THE SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN ON THE KEWEENAW. SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES ACROSS UPR LAKES LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT. TRACK OF LOW IN QUESTION THOUGH. 12Z GFS ACTUALLY TRENDED A BIT FARTHER N (CLOSER TO NAM) WHILE ECWMF/UKMET SUPPORT A TRACK ACROSS LK SUPERIOR. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY OCCUR. EXTENDED (WED THROUGH SAT)...COLDER AIR GRADUALLY SPILLS INTO UPR LAKES BUT WITH PRIMARY UPR TROUGH AXIS RESIDING FM CNTRL CANADA TO WEST CONUS THE MOST INTENSE COLD AIR (H85 TEMPS NEAR -30C) WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. TIMING WITH LOW PRES/FRONT THAT USHERS IN COLD AIR STILL IN QUESTION WITH GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MOST PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGEST WHILE ECMWF/UKMET LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND MORE SUPPRESSED WITH SFC TROUGH. 12Z ECMWF STARTS TO TREND TOWARD GFS THOUGH... INTERESTING. OBVIOUSLY...LARGE DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND INCONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE SO CAN NOT LATCH ONTO ANY ONE SOLN ATTM. ITS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOOD NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES FM THE CANADIAN AND REFORECAST ENSEMBLES ACTUALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM AS GFS IS INDICATING. FOR NOW USED A BLEND OF THE TWO MAIN IDEAS. THIS RESULTS IN A FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH LATE WED INTO THU WITH A SFC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WAVE IS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVR MUCH OF UPR MI WITHIN CYCLONIC NE FLOW. WILL QUICKLY MENTION THE SYSTEM IN THE HWO. COORD WITH GRB. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE SUN EVENING THROUGH MON EVENING MIZ001-003. && $$ JLB(UPDATE) JLA(PREV DISC) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 940 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK RIGHT NOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WERE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY...BUT MESOSCALE LOW ROTATING INTO NE LUCE COUNTY OF EASTERN UPPER. THIS FEATURE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING. ACROSS NRN LOWER...CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH SNOW RATES LIKELY TOPPING AN INCH PER HOUR ARE SEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE EMMET COUNTY COAST. THIS PROCESS JUST STARTING...AS DEEPER MOISTURE NOW STARTING TO ARRIVE. CURRENT FORECAST OF HOLDING SNOW SHOWERS NEAR OR ALONG THE FIRST 20 MILES OR SO INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT QUESTION THAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED...ARE THE WEAK WIND FIELDS GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO PERIODICALLY BATTER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT? CURRENT OBSERVATIONS NOT HELPING WITH CALM WINDS UP AND DOWN THE COAST...IF SFC WINDS TRY AND GO EASTERLY...INDICATIONS WILL BE THAT THE SNOW MAY PREDOMINANTLY HANG OFF THE COAST. LATEST NAM/RUC 1000-850MB WINDS IF ANYTHING ARE SLIGHT WEAKER AT 5-10KTS RATHER THAN 10 KTS. (THIS WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE SEEMS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT...BUT FOR NRN MICHIGAN WEATHER...THIS COULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR COASTLINE LOCALES). THE WEAKER WINDS OFF THE LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE FIRST 20 MILES INLAND OR SO WOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (WHEN WINDS DO INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS) WHEN SOME OF THE FURTHER INLAND LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE SNOW. CANNOT ARGUE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON AT LEAST THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IF I WERE TO DO ANYTHING...I BELIEVE I WOULD WANT TO ACTUALLY CUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ONLY HAVE FLURRIES GOING IN CURRENT FORECAST...AND DO SEE SOME LOWERING CEILINGS (~5KFT OR SO) ARRIVING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SCATTERED FLURRIES COULD FALL FROM THIS AT ANY TIME...SO ATTM WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OR UPDATES. WILL RATHER KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION/INLAND EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO ALTER THE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...WILL JUST HAVE TO INCLUDE THOSE AMOUNTS UP THROUGH EMMET COUNTY WHERE STRONGEST ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY WORKING TOWARD. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...NORTHERN MI REMAINS IN GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...WITH BULK OF THE ACTION FOCUS ON DEVELOPING EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM. NOT A LOT GOING ON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD DEAL OF FLAT SC ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING INTO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO SAGINAW BAY. NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SNOW BAND OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY SHOWING SIGNS OF FALLING APART. FARTHER NORTH...LOOKS LIKE SOME REMNANTS OF A LAKE VORTEX SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER AND TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY. A SECOND VORTEX NORTH OF WHITEFISH POINT SPREADING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THAT AREA FOR THE MOST PART. BAND OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER ALONG TAIL END OF SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM EAST OF HUDSON BAY... BACK TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT DEAL WITH EFFECTS OF THIS MOISTURE BAND...PRIMARILY WITH REGARDS TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...FORCING WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS WEAK...AND BY ITSELF WOULD PROBABLY NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. BUT THE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD... WITH ONE EXCEPTION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND -14C...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850MB. DOWNSIDE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELDS...1000-850MB WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS AND CONTINUED LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY KEEP A LOT OF ENHANCEMENT NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE AND KEEP CONVECTION DISORGANIZED (I.E., NO BANDING). THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS...COULD EASILY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA DEPENDING ON HOW SMALL SCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES SET UP AND WHERE RESULTANT CONVECTION IMPACTS. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...PERSISTENT MESOLOW IN SURFACE OBS NORTHEAST OF WHITEFISH POINT (EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT WHITEFISH/ANJ/YAM/ CIU)...WILL LIKELY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...QUESTION IS WILL A LOT OF THIS COME ONSHORE OR REMAIN OUT OVER THE LAKE. SAME STORY FOR NORTHWEST LOWER...DO ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE OUT ON LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT AGAIN HOW MUCH OF THAT MAKES IT ONSHORE WILL BE THE BIG QUESTION. SO WILL PLAY SNOW AMOUNTS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD (NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE ALREADY HAD GOING)...2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG US-31 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF WHITEFISH BAY IN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...TAPERING THINGS BACK QUICKLY INLAND WHERE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL BE REDUCED. BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEED HEADLINES OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING IF THINGS GET OUT OF HAND LOCALLY. JPB LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL TEMPORARILY BE EJECTED AS THE NOR/EASTER MARCHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD A SERIES OF MINOR TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME QUICK SHOTS OF SNOW WITH IT THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION MODELS AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THE CLIPPER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW...LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE AS WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -14C AND -16C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE ON THE LAKES ATTM...SO WILL NOT REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO ICE BUT ACTUALLY INCREASE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING AOA 850 MB AROUND 18Z WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE TRAPPED TO AROUND -15C AND BELOW LIMITING DENDRITIC GROWTH SLIGHTLY. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER SNOW BELTS...BUT WITH CLIPPER RAPIDLY TRACKING EAST AND DRIER AIR MAKING AN ENTRANCE WILL MAINTAIN THE ONE TO TWO INCH ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND NEAR PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE THE NEXT CLIPPER IN THE SERIES WILL ROLL INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE -16C RANGE BACKING WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND TOTAL ACCUMULATION. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE EXTENDING TO NEARLY -20C WITH WAA PUSHING THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -10C BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY...WITH THE TIP OF THE MITT AND FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AROUND TWO INCHES WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT CLIPPER DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO CA TUESDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS CLIPPER A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS CLIPPERS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTHWARD. MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WITH THIS CLIPPER SHOULD BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MITT AND EASTERN UPPER AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -6C...KEEPING THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO A MINIMUM. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DRY AIR BETWEEN 925-800 MB WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA TO JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SNOW BELTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER. WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GULF OPEN AND WAA OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MOISTURE SEEMS APPROPRIATE. ONE AREA OF CONCERN TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...850 MB IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0C WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESS OF 540 DAM SPLITTING THE CWFA. WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT CHANGE FROM SNOW ATTM...BUT A WINTRY MIX IS CURRENTLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AND CENTER OVER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND MORE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN DURING THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON POISED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY/THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARD TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LESS THAN DESIRABLE...BUT SLOWLY IMPROVING. A COUPLE OF MAJOR POINTS REMAIN PROMINENT IN THE MODELS...FIRST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SYSTEMS MOVING EASTWARD BEFORE MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SECOND...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE PACIFIC COAST/MOUNTAIN WEST AND LIKELY PRODUCE DEVELOPMENT AS A MAJOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US (CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING). ALL POINTS CONSIDERED CURRENT GFS SOLUTION SEEMS FEASIBLE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT TRACK..INTENSITY AND TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TREND TO MAKE SMALL CHANGES UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 340 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...NO REAL CHANGES. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC ON THE FORECAST AS THEY FILL IN AND THE ECHOES INCREASE ON THE RADAR. RUC ANALYSIS PUTS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN MO/NORTHWESTERN AR...WHERE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THE MOST PART...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FROM AROUND 925-850. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT THE FLURRIES BACK IN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENING. LOOKING FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THROUGH AROUND 00Z...WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL. AGAIN COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE STEADILY OVERNIGHT. CLEARING RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO HIT THE MID AND UPPER 20S. EVEN IF HE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THINKING WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. DECIDED TO USE A BLEND FOR THE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...EXPECT COLD AIR TO LIMIT WARMING FOR SUNDAY. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST. THE AREA CLEARS LATE SUNDAY...SO CONTINUING WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE TWO DAYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW LKY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY...GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS PRETTY WELL. ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADUALLY RETURNS MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW BACKS MORE WLY. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SERIES OF WEAK WAVES NOTED IN UPPER FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A HEALTHIER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO NRN ZONES LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PARAMETER THIS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES...AS ERN FRINGES OF SURFACE RIDGING LINGER NEAR THE BORDER. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON THE EFFECTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING VERSUS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SOLUTION FOR UPCOMING PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS NUMBERS SHOW A DISTINCT GRADIENT FROM COLDER TEMPS ON HIGHS AND LOWS FOR NWRN ZONES COMPARED TO SRN AREAS. LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET REGIME WILL SET IN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES IN ITS WAKE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 26 45 25 49 / 12 0 5 0 MERIDIAN 26 43 25 49 / 12 0 5 0 VICKSBURG 26 47 25 50 / 7 0 3 0 HATTIESBURG 26 47 26 52 / 5 0 3 0 NATCHEZ 26 47 26 50 / 4 0 1 0 GREENVILLE 27 42 25 44 / 13 3 6 0 GREENWOOD 27 40 25 45 / 14 3 8 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018- MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031- MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039- MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047- MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055- MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063- MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007- LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074- ARZ075. && $$ 07/03 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1210 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SLIDING THE UPPER ENERGY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN UP TODAY. RUC AND NAM MUCAPE FIELDS EVEN SHOW SOME VERY WEAK CAPE OF AROUND 30 J/KG. IN ADDITION...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK UVV IN THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD TEMPERATURES IN THE -5 TO -15 DEG C RANGE WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHORT DURATION MODERATE SNOW AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW (IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) AS WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A WINTER DAY...AS A COLD AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTHWARD TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PLUMMET INTO THE -10 TO -15 DEG C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS THE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE TEENS. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ADDED SOME FLURRIES TO THE GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN TODAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP...INCREASING WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT DATA INDICATES GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL REDUCE THE WIND CHILLS EVEN FURTHER...WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A TIME. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL IN NATURE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE 50S. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS PROGGING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY...BUT DIDN'T WANT ADJUST GRIDS UPWARD THAT MUCH JUST YET. SAW && .AVIATION... FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE HOWEVER WITH CEILINGS RUNNING BETWEEN 1500 FEET AND 4000 FEET SO OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO ABOUT 15KTS THROUGH SUNSET. HATCH && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 944 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)... UPDATE FOR TONIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SFC LOW IS SLOWER TO START ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT LAGS A BIT BEHIND...BUT BASED AT CURRENT OBS/SAT/RADAR...SEEMS LIKE ITS STARTING TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER. THE SLIGHTLY DELAYED INTENSIFICATION COULD DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IN SERN ZONES (LOWERING FORECAST BY AN INCH IN THESE AREAS). THE 00Z RUC SHOWS SOME SUPPORT OF THIS IDEA...AND IT ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER BLEND WITH CURRENT OBS. -CEMPA && TONIGHT...12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH SFC LOW POSITION AND SLOWER SPEED. THE 12Z NAM/GFS SHOW ALMOST IDENTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOWED WITH RESULTANT SNOWFALL BASED ON A MODEL BLEND OF QPF. BASED ON THIS ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADV TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR SULLIVAN/PIKE/SOUTHERN WAYNE/LACKAWANNA AND LUZERNE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DOES REACH INTO THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE BULK OF THIS FORCING REMAINS WELL EAST OF FA. FOR THE SUSQUE REGION/NORTHERN TIER OF PA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS WENT LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH ACCUMS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. SUNDAY...SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TO CAPE COD BY EVENING. EXPECT CAT/LIKELY POPS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE ZONES THROUGH SUSQUE REGION UNTIL MIDDAY. BEHIND SYSTEM N/NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOST AREAS. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE MAKING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT WITH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL NY WITH LIKELY FAR NRN ZONES. MONDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AND CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS NRN ZONES 290 FLOW THROUGH LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE LAYER WILL CONTINUE LES UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AND LIFTS ACTIVITY INTO THE EASTERN SHORE REGION. RRM && .EXTENDED (MONDAY NT - SATURDAY)... FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK... ALLOWING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THAT PERIOD AS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA. LAST FEW GFS RUNS SHOW THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. COLDER... POSSIBLY MUCH COLDER... WX WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MSE && .AVIATION (12/00Z TO 13/00Z)... CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU 06Z ACROSS MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVP WHERE CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY 04Z. STEADY -SN LIKELY AT KAVP UNTIL 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. SCTD -SHSN AT KBGM/KELM/KITH AFTER 06Z...DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AT KSYR AND KUCA. WINDS SHIFT FROM E TO N LATE MORNING...INCREASING TO 10-15KTS AS SYSTEM DEPARTS. CIGS REMAIN MVFR THRU SUNDAY. PB && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... NYZ062. .PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... PAZ044-047-048-072. $$ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1023 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...INITIALLY THE NAM SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN BOTH T/TD SO WILL TREND BACK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE NAM WAS BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW FEATURE OFF THE CHS COAST. THE MAIN LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ATLANTA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE TODAY...KEEPING A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST INLAND...BUT THE S OBX COULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE ENOUGH TO SEE TEMPS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS OF BOTH NAM/RUC SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER HAT...AND WITH CONVECTION SHOWING UP OFFSHORE COULD SEE SOME OF THAT GET PULLED N-WARD AS THE LOW TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED AN ISOLD TSRA FOR HAT/PAMLICO/S WATERS FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY HAS BEEN INITIALLY FROM ISEN LIFT WITH LIGHT RAIN...BUT AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED EXPECT TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL PASS OFF THE COAST AND DEEPEN SIG BECOMING THE WINTERS FIRST MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE NE. AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER DELMARVA REGION...WILL SEE SOME STRONG CAA WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS AWAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT WHERE A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE BECOMING DRY SLOTTED...MAINLY N OF HWY 264. SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE ALL THAT IS LEFT BY EARLY SUN...BUT WITH STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES COULD SEE SOME SPITTING PRECIP MAINLY IN THE N. AT THIS TIME THE CLOUD LAYER IS STILL BELOW THE DENDRITIC ZONE SO EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE...BUT WILL MENTION FLURRIES SINCE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY ONE OR TWO COMPLETELY. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY FOR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS PERSISTING. && .MARINE...STILL A VERY TOUGH CALL WITH REGARDS TO GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER NC LATE TODAY. LATEST RUC40 IS INDICATING MARGINAL GALES OVER MY CENTRAL WATERS @ 00Z. THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z NAM-12 KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL TRIGGER ON GALES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE SFC OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. FOR NOW I WILL STICK WITH A STRONG SCA ESPECIALLY FOR MY SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AFT 21Z TODAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ156-158 FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150 FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAMISON AVIATION...ELARDO MARINE...ELARDO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 957 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE... STRATO CUMULUS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD AMOUNTS A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. THE RUC SHOWS THE H8 TROF SWINGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FLOW SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH EARLY SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS UNSTABLE AND KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS AND THE H8 TROF FLATTENS. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS THE ARE...BUT 06Z MAV SUGGESTS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FOR HIGHS. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED RATHER QUICKLY ALSO...SO WILL BUMP MAXES UP A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE A LESSER AFFECT ON TEMPS. FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AR WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THICKER. /02 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 2 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 21 ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 941 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... LATEST RUC/NAM 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS MATCHING WELL WITH AREA OF HVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN VA TO SOUTHEAST PA. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT SLIGHTLY NORTHWRD LATER TONIGHT AS MID LVL LO PASSES ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOWING A LYR OF NEG EPV LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE FRONTOGENESIS ARND 500-600MB. BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY INTENSE BANDING...WILL MENTION WILL MENTION LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVR YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS UNCHANGED. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REST OF CWA SHOULD WIND DOWN ARND DAWN AS LO PULLS OFF THE COAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 18Z...SFC LOW WAS NEAR COLUMBIA SC. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THEIR 18Z PLACEMENT...WITH WRF EDGING THE ETA AND GFS OUT FOR BEST FIT. I LIKE THE IDEA OF THE SFC CENTER EMERGING OR JUMPING TO THE COAST NEAR CAPE HATTERAS BY 00Z OR SO AS BEST FALLS ARE NOW ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT IN THAT VICINITY ALONG THE NC COAST. WHAT I DON'T SEE THAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR A REALLY BIG EAST COAST STORM...IS GOBS AND GOBS OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF AND SERN STATES. YOU HAVE TO LOOK TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE FINDING A DEWPOINT ABOVE 60. WHILE PWAT VALUES ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...VALUES BARELY ABOVE AN INCH ARE WHAT THE SYSTEM HAS TO FEED ON. ANOTHER THING NOT YET PRESENT IS HUGE PRESSURE FALLS. DESPITE BEING AT A DIURNAL MAXIMA...3 HR FALLS ARE ONLY IN THE 3-4 MB RANGE ON THE COAST. MODELS DO AGREE IN CREATING MORE RAPID DEEPENING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SO FAR THE LOW IS OFF TO A MODEST BEGINNING. FOR THE SHORT RANGE...ETA AND WRF AGREE IN REALLY WRAPPING UP THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERNMOST AXIS OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SLOPED FORCING JUST MAKES IT UP INTO MY FAR SERN COUNTIES AND PIVOTS THERE BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL PAINT MAINLY LIGHT QPF FOR THE BULK OF MY AREA...WITH HALF INCH AMOUNTS...WITH A LITTLE MORE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH ONE GOES. HAVE UPPED FCST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES A BIT...BUT OVERALL ALIGNMENT AND AMOUNTS AS LAID OUT BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT STILL LOOK GOOD AND HAVE KEPT THEM PRETTY MUCH AS IS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KICK IN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND LAURELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM THIS WEEK AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AREA FRIDAY USHERING IN A RETURN TO COOL AIR BY THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... SNOW SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AND FILL IN OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHT TIME HOURS. ONLY BFD HAS MVFR CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR AND NONE OF THE TERMINALS ARE SNOWING YET...BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET TIME OF PRECIP...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME FOR JST/AOO/UNV AND MDT. PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z FOR BFD/IPT AND NORTHWARD. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 800-1800' RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VIS GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE IN THE SNOW. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE STATE WUD BRING VIS DOWN UNDER A MILE AT TIMES. THIS SHUD LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE LOW PULLING OFF THE COAST WILL TURN SFC WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WE SEE THE STEADY PRECIP BECOME SHOWERY. CIG/VIS SHUD IMPROVE TO MVFR EVERYWHERE IN THE MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY VFR FROM IPT TO MDT. TERMINALS FURTHER WEST WILL PROB GRAPPLE WITH MVFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS FOR A WHILE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF HERE. ANYONE WHO SAW ACCUMULATING DRY POWDERY SNOW MAY SEE PROBLEMS DEVELOP WITH BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VIS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR PAZ064>066 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 229 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO CRITICAL FORECAST PARAMETERS AS SNOW AMOUNTS, TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS. THIS WAS BECAUSE LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAD ONLY A SMALL SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE MAINTAINED WINTER-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... BASED ON RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS, ALONG WITH CONSIDERING ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CONTINUE TO EXPECT UPPER JET STREAM FLOW TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WITH A NORTHWEST ORIENTATION OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH A WESTERLY ORIENTATION OVER OUR AREA. THIS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES MODERATING WITH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW A RENEWED INJECTION OF JET ENERGY FROM CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURE GOING COLDER THAN NORMAL THEN, ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON SOME GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK OF FEB19-25. && .AVIATION... BASED FORECAST THROUGH 12/00Z ON RECENT RADAR, SURFACE, AND SATELLITE DATA AND RUC MODEL RUNS. THESE INDICATORS HAD SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD AT 15 KTS, REACHING KPIT-KZZV LINE BY AROUND 11/22Z, WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR (4SM -SN OVC025) FOR 2-3 HOURS AND THEN IFR (1SM-2SM -SN OVC006-OVC010). BASED FORECAST 12/00Z THROUGH 13/00Z ON CONSENSUS OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLES, WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THESE SOLUTIONS HAD FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAINLY IFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING (12/12Z-16Z), AND THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR AS SNOW INTENSITY LESSENED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MDZ001 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY. OH...NONE. PA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ030-032 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ021-022 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY. ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WVZ023-041 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 711 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... LGT DRZL OVR NRN COUNTIES AS WK S/W MOVS ACRS AREA. RUC SHWS S/W MOVG N OF AREA NXT SVRL HRS. SAT IMAGERY SHWS CLDS THNG BHND S/W. WL SEND OUT UPDATE TO RM LWA. NO OTHR CHNGS ATTM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... SURFACE CHARTS SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME GUSTS. WILL LEAVE CURRENT LWA OUT UNTIL 00Z AND LET EVENING SHIFT DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD BE IN ORDER AFTER THAT. ALSO...ANOTHER LWA COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY AS MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS. HAVE ADDED STRONGER GUSTS IN THE GRIDS...BUT WILL LET OVERNIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE WIND POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW. RAIN POTENTIAL DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. MAY HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EXTREME EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF CWA THIS EVENING...SO DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AFTER 00Z. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...AND THEN EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DRY PATTERN SETTING UP FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE FROM AN EAST COAST TROUGH TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY...AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. AVIATION... RAIN WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING AS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WINDS MAY PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AREA POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 22 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 107 PM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DEEPENING OVER OGB AREA AS WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. PRESSURE FALLS ARE BECOMING QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 MB PER HOUR ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. CAE IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/LOW CENTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FOG. RAIN HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE PRECIP CLEARS THE CWA. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO PICK UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE HOISTED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOULTRIE AND WILL LET IT EXPIRE AT 7 PM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 354 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MODELS BRING GULF COAST LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA. IT MAY CLIP THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE CAE CWA BUT THINK IT WILL REMAIN EVEN SOUTH OF THERE. RUC BRINGS LOW TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO HOLD A BIT OF A WEDGE OVER THE AREA AND TO GO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WILL HAVE 50 ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER TO TRY TO MATCH WITH CHS. CAE 88D SHOWING GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN BUT INITIALLY ALOFT AS SOME DRY AIR AT 850 MB. AGREE WITH MODELS MOISTENING UP ATMOSPHERE WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE AREA. ALSO NAM SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WEDGE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAT WE SHOULDN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WINDS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING BUT ONLY 10-15 KT. AFTER COLD FRONT TONIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... NO REAL CHANGES. UPPER FLOW STRAIGHTENS OUT TUESDAY. THEN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES APPROACH KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AVIATION... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE NE AND TRACK UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) CURRENTLY. MODELS AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FA LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO DECLINE ACCORDINGLY. WIND WILL BE VARIABLE AND SHIFTING IN DIRECTION DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS BY. THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FA. APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS TO OUR NE. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS/VSBYS DURING THAT TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. FIRE WEATHER... TODAY...MIXING HGT 1600 FEET. TRANSPORT WINDS SOUTHEAST 17 MPH. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADV FOR LAKE MOULTRIE UNTIL 7 PM. GA...NONE. && $$ 17 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1051 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS ZONE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 321 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006) SYNOPSIS... HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE SE USA TODAY...THEN UP THE EAST COAST ON TONITE AND ON SUN...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUN NITE. BEST FORCING/DYNAMIX WITH THIS SYS LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON MON...AS ANOTHER STORM SYS MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA. UPR TROF TO SWEEP ACRS THE FA TODAY. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... 00-03Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE MID TEENS-M20S TODAY WITH A LT NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. LOW-LVLS TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH NO PCPN. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MUCH OF MON...WITH SOME WK WAA LATER ON MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE ON MON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT SRN VT LATE TONITE AND ERN VT ON SUN...WITH SOME LOW-LVL MSTR AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FA ON SUN NITE AND MON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT ON SUN AND MUCH OF THE FA EARLY ON SUN NITE AND AGAIN LATER ON MON. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON DAY 2. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NOTED ACRS THE FA IN THE LATEST IR SAT PIX. SOME ICE CRYSTALS NOTED AT KBTV RECENTLY. DRY WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA THRU MUCH OF TONITE. PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE THE SE/ERN FA LATER TONITE AND INTO MUCH OF SUN. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT ON SUN. BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2" (WITH MAX AMTS ACRS SE VT) FROM 06Z SUN THRU 00Z MON (THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN LAST NITE/S GUIDANCE). WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF FACTOR...THIS MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF BLW 5" ACRS SE VT. SEE NO REASON TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES OR ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS ATTM FOR THIS REGION. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN (OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME LK CHAMP LES ON SUN AND INTO SUN NITE?) LOOKS TO BE LATER ON MON...WHERE SCHC POPS FOR ANY -SHSN WILL BE RETAINED FOR NOW. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TONITE AND ON SUN NITE. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY 4 AM. AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THRU 06Z. LCL 2SM BR SCT001 AT KBTV DUE TO SMOG IN THE WINOOSKI RIVER VALLEY OCNLY DRIFTING OVR RWY THRU 12Z. OTHERWISE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY. WINDS GENERALLY CALM/LGT VARIABLE. HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AFT 06Z SUN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WGH vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 235 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FOCUS ON DMSHG SNOW SHOWER THREAT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...FOLLOWED BY SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVG THRU WRN GTLAKES SUN THRU MON. LONG TERM FOCUS ON INCRG THREAT OF PRECIP ON WED/THU. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SHORE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...LEAVING BEHIND SNOWFALL AROUND ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LAKE WINNEBAGO TRIGGERED HEAVIER -SHSN IN KOSH /1 INCH/ AREA BUT APPEARS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS EVIDENT BY WEAK UPR LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS AND WEAK S/W AS DEPICTED BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS CONTRIBUTED TO FORCING WELL AWAY FM LK MI. EXPC SCT -SNSH TO DMSH TO FLURRIES BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE AS WEAK FORCING SLIDES SWD. LAKE EFFECT HAS DMSHD ON SCHEDULE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON MORE NLY COMPONENT. WL MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO WX GRIDS PENDING RADAR TRENDS. INCRG COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE NIGHT WL COUNTER WEAK FORCING ASSOCD WITH NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN SRN CAN...HENCE WL CONT FLURRY MENTION FOR LATER TNGT INTO SUN. THERMAL TROF AND LOW LEVEL RH SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLDS IN OUTLOOK FOR TNGT INTO SUN. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPCD FOR A TIME LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT...HOWEVER WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLDS WL BGN TO SPREAD BACK IN LTR SUN NGT INTO MON. SHARP MID LEVEL TROF PASSES BY ON MON BUT LAYER RH REMAINS LIMITED. SECONDARY WAVE ON TUE WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH OF AREA...HOWEVER INCRG SWLY WINDS SHOULD PULL WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME ENCOURAGEMENT IN EXTENDED GUIDANCE AS ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS TRENDING TOWARD SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS TRENDING TWD MORE AMPLIFIED TROF AND WETTER SOLUTION WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY 12Z ECMWF FM YESTERDAY. PATTERN CHANGE STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LONG WAVE TROF WEAKENING OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP BY TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON S/W TROF MOVG THRU UPR MIDWEST WED/THU. SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF WAVE MAY STILL RESULT IN MIXTURE ON WED/WED NGT BFR COLD AIR FUNNELS IN BY 12Z/THU. REMOVED PRECIP FM TUE NGT AS FORCING REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF AREA UNTIL WED AND ADDED POPS FOR THU. GFS SHOWING BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIDING WELL SOUTH OF AREA LATE IN WEEK WITH 85MB TEMPS -15 TO -20 WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN -30 DEPICTED BY 06Z RUN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MBK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 930 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 .UPDATE...PERSISTANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SETTING UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. POINT BEACH NUCLEAR PLANT ALREADY REPORTED 1.5 INCHES WITH MORE BANDS OFFSHORE. RUC40 INDICATES THESE BANDS WILL NOT DIE OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES OFFSHORE. THEREFORE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WITH THE HOPES THAT 5 INCHES WILL BE THE MAX WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. DOOR COUNTY APPEARS SAFE AS THE BANDS HAVE SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. .SYNOPSIS...THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE UPR FLOW PATTERN ACRS NOAM AND THE ERN PAC EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE DURING THE FCST PERIOD. SHARP UPR RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST AND BUILD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY NEXT WK. THAT WOULD ALLOW ERN NOAM TROF TO PULL WWD BY MID-WK...WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING AND FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST. THAT WOULD ALSO DRIVE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SWD OVER THE WRN PLAINS. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WL BE INITIATED BY VERY STG JET NOW HEADING EWD FM THE WRN PAC. THE JET IS FCST TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM W OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHICH WOULD START THE RETROGRESSION BY FORCING THE WWD REBUILDING OF THE WRN NOAM RIDGE. GIVEN ALL THESE DEVELOPMENTS TRACE BACK TO JET OVER DATA SPARSE WRN PAC...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THINGS COULD CHG SIGNIFICANTLY IN LATER RUNS. AS A RESULT...HELD OFF ON MAKING MAJOR CHGS TO THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE EARLY IN THE WORK WK. TEMPS BEYOND THAT WL DEPEND ON HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES SEWD INTO THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD VERY LGT EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST...BUT LCN OF FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRACK OF SFC SYSTEM WL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE SIG PCPN FALLS OVER THE FCST AREA OR ELSEWHERE. .SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/SUN. LAKE-EFFECT SITN DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS DIFFERED ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. RADAR SUPPORTED HAVING SCT SHSN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...JUST CARRIED THE SHSN ALL DAY. INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...AND THAT SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. MEANWHILE UP NORTH...NOTHING HAS HAPPENED YET. BUT FLOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME. THAT AREA COULD ALSO SEE AN INCR AS A SHRTWV APPROACHES LATER TDA. STUCK WITH SCT SHSN THERE ALSO. LOW-LEVEL WINDS FCST TO VARY BETWEEN N AND WNW TNGT AND SUN. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL FCST OF EXACT DIRECTION UNDER WK FLOW NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PUT TOO MUCH DETAIL INTO THE FCST. ESP SINCE DIFFERENT MODELS OFFERED DIFFERING IDEAS ABOUT WHEN FLOW WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. SO JUST CONTD CHC OF SHSN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. STUCK WITH PLENTY OF CLDS AND A CHC OF FLURRIES ACRS THE REST OF THE AREA. MAV GUID TEMPS SEEMED REASOANBLE. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. MAIN FCST CHALLENGES CONT TO BE SML PCPN CHCS EARLY NXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HANDLING OF MAJOR PATN SHIFT AND WIDE RANGING MDL SOLNS LTR NXT WEEK. A RATHER BAGGY AND WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO DROP SE TOWARD LK SUPERIOR SUNDAY NGT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR MSTR FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PLAY WITH THUS HAVE LEFT ONLY A SML CHC OF LGT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES FOR FAR NRN WI. PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE CLDS AND RELATIVELY LGT WNDS THRU MOST OF THE NGT WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. THIS WEAK SYSTEM TRACKS E-SE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON MON DRAGGING A CDFNT THRU WI. ONCE AGAIN...WHAT DYNAMICS AND MSTR THAT ARE PRESENT FAVORS NRN WI SO HAVE CONTINUED THE MINIMAL PCPN CHCS THERE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTED ONLY A WND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. WNDS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE W-SW MON NGT AHD OF A CDFNT WHICH IS FCST TO DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. GFS APRS TOO QUICK ON DRIVING THE CDFNT (AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SFC LOW) TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST AND PREFER THE SLOWER NAM/CANADIAN. MORE CLDS AND THE START OF WAA WL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD THAN PREV NGTS. HAVE RAISED MINS SEVERAL DEGS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THE MEX GUID. THIS NXT CLIPPER LOW MOVS E-SE TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS ON A SIMILAR PATH OF ITS PREDECESSOR. THIS KEEPS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND MSTR NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED POPS OVR SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TO ONLY SLGT CATEGORY. TRAILING CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN TUE BUT NOT VERY QUICKLY AS MEAN FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NW DIR TO MORE OF A W-SE DIR. THE BIG QSTN FOR TUE NGT INTO WED IS WHERE THE FNTL BNDRY TO BE LOCATED FOR ANY KIND OF OVERRUNNING EVENT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BNDRY TO STRETCH FROM SW TO E-CNTRL WI AT 12Z WED AND THEN SLOWLY SAG SE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED. INCRG GULF MSTR BEING SENT NORTH BY A 50 KT LOW LVL JET SHOULD PROVIDE ENUF OF A PCPN RISK TO KEEP POPS IN THE FCST. 8H TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST COLD ENUF TO KEEP PCPN AS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FCST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK IS COMPLETELY UP IN THE AIR ATTM AS TWO DISTINCTLY DIFFERENT SOLNS ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MDLS. ONE CAMP TILTS THE ERN PACIFIC UPR RDG INTO THE NW TERRITORY OF CANADA AND DISPLACES A LOBE OF ARCTIC AIR SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF STATES. IN ADDITION...A SFC LOW WOULD RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED FNTL BNDRY ON THU AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE WRN GREAT LKS. THE OTHER CAMP MAINTAINS THAT THE UPR RDG TO REMAIN POINTED TOWARD THE GULF OF AK WITH A POSITIVE TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL CANADA SWWD TO CA. THIS RESULTS IN A MOIST W-SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC WAVES MOVG ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY WHICH WOULD BE LOCATED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH (OHIO RVR VALLEY/ERN GREAT LKS). DUE TO THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...HAVE KEPT THE GIST OF THE PREV FCST INTACT WHICH FAVORS THE LATTER MDL SOLN. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON WIZ040-050- && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 256 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 ...FIRST TRUE ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON... .SHORT TERM...WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INFILTRATED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RUC 40 INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA AND IT WILL TAKE THE PASSAGE OF THESE TO BRING THE REALLY COLD AIR IN. NONETHELESS...850 TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE -6 C RANGE OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AT THIS HOUR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S. REALLY CAN'T SEE MUCH OF A WARMUP TODAY GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WE WILL BE SEEING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HAVE GONE ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT FURTHER GUIDANCE...AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS OPPORTUNITY TO MIX MAXIMUM WINDS DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND THINK WE CAN HANDLE WINDS WITH 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING AND TO A GREATER EXTENT TUESDAY MORNING. FIRST 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRESH ON ITS HEELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMPLICATE THE FREEZE PICTURE TONIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE GEORGIA ZONES AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. MAV HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW FOR MINS THIS WINTER SEASON BUT ESPECIALLY FOR ADVECTIVE EVENTS. THROW IN SOME CLOUDS AND FEEL THE NEED TO ADD 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO MAV PROJECTIONS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE MET. THIS STILL WARRANTS A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA PORTION ALTHOUGH FLAGLER IS A LITTLE MORE ON THE FENCE. FOR GEORGIA...WE HAVE ENDED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR ALL BUT HARD FREEZE EVENTS. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A WATCH FOR GEORGIA AND A WARNING FOR FLORIDA...SO WENT AHEAD WITH A "HARD" FREEZE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT WILL MEET CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY. AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY...DESPITE THE EXODUS OF THE COLDEST 850 TEMPS. THERE STILL WON'T BE THAT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON MONDAY WITH AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AND WITH HIGH MIGRATING QUICKLY OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. GRIDDED VALUES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF 10 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER SOME AREAS WITH MINS IN THE MID 20S. MAV CONTINUES TO BE COLDER WITH SOME TEENS READINGS BUT UNTIL IT HITS ONE THIS SEASON WILL NOT GO WITH IT. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND MOST OF GEORGIA...TO BE LIKELY UPGRADED WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. .LONG TERM...OUR FORAY INTO WINTER IS A BRIEF ONE AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL AND A RAPID WARMUP IS IN STORE. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SENDS MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEK. VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH INTO MONTANA BUT ZONAL FLOW KEEPS THE COLDEST OF THE AIR NORTH OF THE AREA. && .MARINE...ROUGH CONDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WITH 41012 PROBABLY REPORTING THE PEAK CONDS FOR THIS COLD OUTBREAK WITH WINDS W27G35- 40KT AND SEAS AT 10 FT. IT WAS NOTED THAT ELEVATED WIND INSTRUMENTS AT R8 TOWER JUST N OF MARINE AREA RECENTLY INDICATED GUSTS TO 44 KT AND SEAS WERE 10 FT. GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL BASICALLY BE REPLACED BY NEXT SHIFT WITH A SCA AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG ADVECTION PATTERN. WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND MON AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR N LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRES RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRES MOVES OUT BY MID WEEK WITH E TO SE FLOW EXPECTED REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD. DUE TO ESE WIND FETCH...WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO PREDICT AN SE SWELL BY WEEKS END. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR FL ZONES LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY AS WINDS AND LOW RH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MEET CRITERIA. LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOK LIKE THOUGH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT JUST GA ZONES. ON MONDAY...LOWER RH EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY DIP INTO THE MID TEENS IN A FEW AREAS BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD BACK BY COLD AIRMASS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. FIRE WX WATCH FOR MON WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW. OUR GA ZONES LOOK TO ESCAPE RED FLAG CONDS BOTH TODAY AND MON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 29 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 49 28 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 49 28 50 27 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 49 28 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 51 27 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 51 29 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION. FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON... MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION. GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ATKINSON...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE... ECHOLS...JEFF DAVIS...AND WARE. FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ATKINSON...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CLINCH... COASTAL CAMDEN...COASTAL GLYNN...ECHOLS...INLAND CAMDEN... INLAND GLYNN...PIERCE...WARE...AND WAYNE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ PUBLIC...DEESE MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 310 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZFP/GRIDS... LAKE SNOW DRIFTING TO EAST AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. VAD WINDS SHOW CHANGE IS SLIGHT SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT SUFFICIENT TO MOVE MAIN PLUME FROM JUST OFF CHICAGO SHORE TO PORTER-LAPORTE BORDER IN NORTHWEST INDIANA. ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES REMAINING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS ATTM. THOUGH MAIN H5 TROUGH HAS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ONE MORE SIG SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SEEN IN SURFACE DATA AS SECONDARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH COLUMN STILL MOIST AND UVV ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE, CHANCE FOR WRINGING OUT ADDITIONAL SHOT OF FLURRIES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PAC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH EFFECT OF BACKING UPPER FLOW TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. WAA SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AT THIS TIME WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING AOA 40. AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND ADD UVV AND CONVERGENCE NECESSARY TO INITIATE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY. H8 TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE RAIN WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STRONG CAA FOLLOWING ON HEALS OF SURFACE LOW PASSAGE WILL CHANGE ALL PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER MILD TEMPS EARLY TO MID-WEEK, MAX WILL DROP TO ONLY 20S BY END OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY LOOK PUTS MINS IN UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. THIS TIME AROUND WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHWEST SO CHANCES FOR LAKE SNOW IN NORTHEAST IL DIMINISHED. && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS... CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS FORECAST AREA...THOUGH RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH DEEP LAYER UP TO 700 HPA. WEAK WATER VAPOR SIGNATURE OF SHEARED VORT MAX ALONG BACK SIDE OF LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH RUC PICKS UP ON. 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP OF LAST HOUR OR SO SHOWING NEW INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IL...ALBEIT MUCH LESS INTENSE AND CELLULAR THAN THOSE OF EARLIER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN OVERNIGHT WITH A TEMPO MVFR VIS/CIG FOR LGT SNOW. WILL CARRY THIS TEMPO FIRST FEW HOURS..THEN EXPECT DIMINISHING BEFORE DAYBREAK. ANALYSIS OF 00Z RAOB AND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT VORT DIGS SOUTH INTO TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE ALREADY RESULTING IN SOME MVFR LGT SNOW VIS/CIG CONDITIONS ERN ND/NWRN MN...AND WITH LAPSE RATES REMAINING RATHER STEEP THROUGH 850 HPA SUNDAY...WILL CARRY A PROB GROUP FOR SOME MVFR LGT SNOW LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE RISING HEIGHTS AND DRYING OF LOWER/MID LEVELS SHOULD END PRECIP THREAT FROM NW-SE DURG AFTN...WITH SOME SCT/CLRG DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW IN 310-320 DEG RANGE AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH REMAINDER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPEED GNRLY 8-12 KTS. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL. AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRENT OF THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES. OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5 FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION... ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 425 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT EVENT TONIGHT/MON ON THE KEWEENAW...A MORE GENERAL -SN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING ON TUE...AND THEN SNOW MIDWEEK AHEAD OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NAMERICA WITH A SHARP RIDGE AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE W COAST AND A DEEP TROF DOMINATING THE E HALF OF NAMERICA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING S ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM FLIGHT INTO KSAW LAST EVENING WAS VERY FAVORABLE FOR LES WITH 850MB TEMP AROUND -14C AND A MOIST PROFILE TO 700MB...LES HAS NOT REACHED THE POTENTIAL SUGGESTED BY THE PROFILE OVERNIGHT. PART OF THE ISSUE IS PROBABLY LIGHT WINDS WHICH ARE PREVENTING ANY KIND OF ORGANIZATION (KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS AROUND 10KT THRU 7KFT MSL). NONETHELESS...CERTAINLY EXPECTED TO SEE MORE LES THAN HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. SEEMS TO BE A RECURRING THEME THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH LES NEVER DEVELOPING AS MUCH AS I EXPECTED. TO THE N...00Z CWPL SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR LES WITH DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 900MB TO 600MB (DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 30C). 00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS NOT AS DRY...BUT PROFILE STILL DOES NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LES (WELL MIXED LAYER BLO SHARP INVERSION AT 875MB WITH VERY DRY ABOVE). WITH NEGLIGIBLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TODAY...EXPECT A PURE LES REGIME. KEY ASPECTS REGULATING LES WILL BE LOW INVERSION AND DRY AIRMASS (PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS) WHICH WILL BE OVERSPREADING LAKE SUPERIOR. BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU DECK AND FLURRIES IS STILL BACK OVER NE MN AND JUST NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO...IT SHOULD BE AFTN BEFORE THE IMPACT OF DRYING BEGINS TO AFFECT LES SIGNIFICANTLY. UNTIL THEN...THE MORNING HRS OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DAY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THAT FALLING DURING THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK TO A NW DIRECTION DURING THE AFTN...SHIFTING LES TO MAINLY THE NW FLOW SNOWBELTS. TONIGHT/MON...ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE KEWEENAW FOR A POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT EPISODE WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AS WINDS BACK TO THE W WHILE 850MB TEMPS LINGER IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE. MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE CRITICAL...AND THERE ARE HUGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM NEVER LINKS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (A WEDGE OF DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 15-20C LINGERS AROUND 850MB). THE GFS MOISTENS THE ENTIRE COLUMN. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SO THERE IS NO TREND TO TIP THE BALANCE TOWARD ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE RELATED TO THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLIPPING THRU THE WRN RIDGE. THE REGIONAL CANADIAN AND UKMET SUPPORT THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WITH SHORTWAVE AS IT DIVES SE THRU MN MON MORNING. THESE MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE INDICATED BY THE GFS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE MOISTENING PROFILE INDICATED BY THE GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA (AGAIN NOTE THE 00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS). ASSUMING MOISTURE DEEPENS...THE FOCUS WILL BE PROVIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS SHOWS THE CLASSIC SIGNAL FOR STRONG CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WRN LAKE INTO THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BACK SW TOWARD THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MORE NW TOWARD ISLE ROYALE. NAM HAS A SIMILAR PATTERN...BUT IT BACKS WINDS TO THE SW OVER MORE OF THE WRN LAKE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING CONVERGENCE ZONE N OF THE KEWEENAW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON DURING PERIOD OF BEST DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK LIFT. RUC13 IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE BACKING TO THE SW. SINCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILE...UNCERTAINTY ON LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW AND MARGINALLY COLD 850MB TEMPS FOR PURE LES IN THE EVENT SYNOPTIC FORCING IS MINIMAL OR NONEXISTENT (BEST FORCING DOES PASS SW OF FCST AREA)...WILL NOT CHANGE WATCH HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE. ALSO...IT IS NOT CRITICAL TO GO ADVY OR WARNING YET SINCE THIS IS REALLY A LATE SECOND PERIOD INTO THIRD PERIOD EVENT. FEELING ATTM IS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A WARNING EVENT...BUT IT COULD EASILY BECOME ONE IF MOISTURE PROFILE IS DEEP...CONVERGENCE SETS UP RIGHT AND THERE IS A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...BACKING WINDS WILL SHIFT LES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS E OF MUNISING. SOME -SN/FLURRIES MAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING SW OF UPPER MI. LES WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF ALL OF UPPER MI MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK SW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. SPEAKING OF WHICH...PER GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF...STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS ACROSS OR JUST N OF UPPER MI TUE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A WIDESPREAD -SN ACROSS UPPER MI LATE MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE N AND E FCST AREA UNDER LIFT THE LONGEST. GFS 285K SFC (AROUND 750MB) SHOWS MIXING RATIOS OF 2G/KG AVAILABLE WITH 6 TO MAYBE 9HRS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N AND E WHERE LIFT IS LONGEST DURATION (MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS THE SCNTRL). WED/THU...MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED ONTO A SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS NOT AS WIDE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT TOWARD A SFC WAVE LIFTING THRU THE GREAT LAKES...BUT TIMING IS QUITE VARIED RANGING FROM THE FAST CANADIAN (SFC LOW LIFTING NE THRU LWR MI WED NIGHT) TO THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET (SFC LOW LIFTING THRU LWR MI THU NIGHT). THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED. IT WOULD APPEAR HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS SE OF FCST AREA...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GIVEN THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN RECENT DAYS. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND (850MB TEMPS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -25C...THOUGH OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS). && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU MON EVENING MIZ001-003. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 423 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SRN NEW ENG TODAY... THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE. SFC/UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA ON TUE. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE TEENS-L20S TODAY WITH N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M20S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT VT TODAY. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH T-4" OF SN ACRS VT. H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON...WITH WAA DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON MON AND LATE ON TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT TODAY AND MUCH OF THE FA TONITE THRU TUE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TODAY THRU MON NITE...THEN AROUND 0.25" ON TUE. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON EACH DAY THRU DAY 3. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MAKING PROGRESS ACRS REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ATTM. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THIS PCPN WILL BE RUNNING INTO SOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR FIRST BEFORE IT STARTS TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM STILL EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE MUCH OF THE SE/ERN FA TODAY. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT TODAY. BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2" (WITH MAX AMTS ACRS SE VT) THRU 00Z TONITE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF FACTOR...THIS MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF 3-5" ACRS SE VT...WHERE THE GOING SN ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED. LATEST NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS SOME LK CHAMP LES POSSIBLE BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE AS THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE N-NW. ALSO...SOME LK FLOW OFF LK ONT POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN FA ON MON NITE/TUE. THE NEXT FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS LOOK TO JUST GIVE MUCH OF THE FA A SCHC AT SEEING SOME -SHSN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TONITE. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... .AVIATION... DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK S AND E OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT OCNL LOWERING TO MVFR AT KMPV AFT 16Z DUE TO VISIBILITY IN -SN. AFT 20Z CIGS LOWERING TO BKN025 AT KMPV WITH 3SM -SN. THATS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS PRECIP WILL GET BUT KBTV KEPT A PROB30 FOR FLURRIES 22-02Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK FROM E TO N AND INCREASE AFT 20Z WITH SOME G20KTS AT KBTV AND KMPV. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VTZ012 THROUGH 9 PM TODAY. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY AVIATION...SISSON vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1045 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... ...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVERSPREADING CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM NW TO SE AS DRY AIR WORKS IN ALOFT BUT WE REMAIN IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET WITH DIV ALOFT SO IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. IN ADDITION...LOWER BASED GULF MARINE STRATOCU IS ADVECTING ONSHORE THE FL WEST COAST. QUESTION IS HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL REACH. NW SFC WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE W/NW WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS INTO OUR FA...FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OF 20G25 MPH. WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY. BUT IT'S A LOT COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE IN THE FACE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS IN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S TODAY DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE THERE. LOW TO MID 50S IS AS GOOD AS IT GETS ELSEWHERE. **NOTE: TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING WELL AFTER SUNRISE. SO THE RTP (WHICH RUNS THRU 7 AM) DID NOT CAPTURE THEM. HOWEVER...THE TRUE LOWS FOR THE DAY WON'T BE REACHED UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TONIGHT...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS OF THE SEASON ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE -5 ISOTHERM CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. MAV MOS SHOWING FREEZING TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A LITTLE ON THE COLD SIDE IN SOME PAST ADVECTION EVENTS...BUT THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS SEASON...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST COLD POCKET FREEZING TEMPS IN ALL COUNTIES. THERE ARE SOME POSSIBLE MITIGATING FACTORS THOUGH AS MODEL SHOWS THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME STRATOCU PUSHING INLAND FROM THE GULF AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. && .MARINE...COOL AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING THROUGH THE LOWEST 4-5K FT WILL TRANSPORT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL BE BUMPING GUSTS FROM 40 KT DOWN TO 30 KT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS SHOW 850-925 MB LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DECREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY EVENING...SO EXPECT SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH THAN OUR CURRENT RED FLAG. WILL LIKELY EXTEND IT AT LEAST INTO OSCEOLA/SOUTH BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER. BUT WINDS ARE BACKING TO THE W/NW AND GULF MARINE STRATOCU IS HEADING TOWARDS OUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOTICE THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING ALONG THE COAST (MLB SOUTH). COULD SEE DEWPOINTS RISE SOME THERE BUT TURBULENT MIXING MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THIS SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60NM. LAKE WIND ADVISORY 10 AM-6 PM TODAY ALL COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNING LAKE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FREEZE WARNING ALL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZE WATCH ALL COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. && $$ KELLY/HIRSCH fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 910 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WILL CONTINUE ALL HEADLINES. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO FRESHEN UP THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...THAT IS...TO REMOVE TREND TERMS SUCH AS BECOMING AND DEVELOPING WHERE APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING IS AT 1039 AM WHEN SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR. WILL DROP THE MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. A STATEMENT CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THIS THROUGH NOON TIME. && .AVIATION... GENERALLY LOW INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS OR INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING TONIGHT AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TAF SITES AND AUG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG GALE WARNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO STORM FORCE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS OKAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 810 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006) MARINE... SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING...TO ADD HIGHER GUSTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND TO INCREASE SEAS A BIT TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS. CONTINUING THE STRONG GALE WARNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL. AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES. OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5 FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR SATURDAY. AVIATION... ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE... WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 810 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .MARINE... SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING...TO ADD HIGHER GUSTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND TO INCREASE SEAS A BIT TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY REPORTS. CONTINUING THE STRONG GALE WARNING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 418 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... AT 300 AM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COASTLINE. THIS WINTER STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF CAPE COD TODAY...AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. OVERALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL...IT SEEMS THE NAM/RUC HAVE A BETTER HANDLE THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SNOWFALL. AS THE 500 MB LOW CATCHES THE SURFACE LOW AND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRENT OF THE STORM TO CUT OFF VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IN THIS SECTOR OF THE STORM...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL DEVELOP. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BAND DEVELOPING...EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON...TO JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK. THIS BAND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THIS REGION. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THIS BAND EFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THE RADAR TRAJECTORY...IT LOOKS LIKE A NEAR MISS. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS THIS BAND IS WHAT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THIS...WILL KEEP ALL CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE. OVERALL...FEEL PREVIOUS SNOW FORECASTS WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN WESTERN SECTIONS...SO TREND THESE BACK...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. 5 TO 10 INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD ALONG THE COAST...WITH 4 TO 8 IN THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HERE IS REALLY THE TRICKIEST FORECAST...AS SNOW WILL CUT OFF RAPIDLY SOMEWHERE ON THE BACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN THE FOOTHILL REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DO NOT FEEL THE NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING...UNLESS THE TROWAL BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO OUR COASTAL ZONES. OTHERWISE...SLOW DOWN TIMING JUST A TAD...FOLLOWING A RUC/NAM COMPROMISE. USE GFS/NAM MOS COMPROMISE FOR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A ONE AND A HALF FOOT STORM SURGE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ONLY 9.5 FEET...EXPECT THE GAUGE TO STAY WELL BELOW 12 FT. HOWEVER...WITH LARGE WAVES SPLASHING IN...EXPECT SOME SPLASH OVER AND EROSION...SO ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GRAY MAINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT BEST THESE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...OR SNOW TO THE AREA. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR SATURDAY. AVIATION... ALONG THE COAST CONDITIONS LOWER TO LIFR THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN DOWN TO THE GROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. LEB WILL BE MUCH BETTER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND WITH ONLY A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE... WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GALES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 50 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYSHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM AND SEE IF STORM FORCE WIND DEVELOP...AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ018>028 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ012>014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ004-006-008-009 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ010-013-014 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY. && $$ me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 936 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 ...TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED THIS MORNING ALONG AND SE OF MHT-CEF TO I95 WITH COMBO COLD...POOR VSBY IN WIND BLOWN DRIFTING AND FALLING SNOW... .UPDATE... M3...VERY SHORTLY ADDING MVY TO THE CFW AND REISSUING STMT AS SOON AS FINISH THIS STMT. SERIOUS MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ACK AND MVY ON UP TO OUTER CAPE COD THIS MORNING. PLS REF THE 924 AM STMT WITH REPORTS 2 HRS BEFORE HIGH TIDE WITH ROAD CLOSURES DOCKS UNDER WATER. 19 FT SEAS AT 44018! ROAD CLOSURES TO BOSTON AND THE S SHORE WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY. LAST NOS TIDE DATA IS IN THE STMTS...BOTH NOWCAST AND CFW. 930 AM DOWNTOWN BOSTON WITH 6 INCHES PER NWS EMPLOYEE THE JACKPOT OVER 18" IN HARTFORD CTY. PNS BEING UPDATED AS FAST WE CAN ENTER AND DELIVER. BLIZ CONDS: HAVE BRIEFLY OCCURRED AT ORH AND BVY 8A-9A TIME FRAME BUT NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH YET TO CALL IT A BLIZ HERE. NEW BANDS FORMING BOSTON AREA INTO SW SUBURBS AND ALONG THE S COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FROM CT TO WST TO CAPE COD. DRAG 936 AM M2...TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED THIS MORNING IN N CT...PLUS MUCH OF CENTRAL/E MASS CEF TO FIT EWD TO THE COAST AND NH VCNTY I93 AS WELL AS RI. CHILLING IN MUCH OF MASS AS FLOW TURNS NNE...TEMPS DOWN 3-6 DEGS PAST SVRL HRS MERRIMACK VALLEY TO CEF. INTERIOR SNE DRIFTING TO AT LEAST 2 FEET EXPECTED WHERE 8 INCH AMTS... AND WHERE AMTS EXCEED A FOOT... DRIFTS TO 3 FEET. THAT TYPE OF DRIFTING WILL DEVELOP I 95 ONCE AMTS REACH THOSE VALUES AND TEMPS START THE PLUMMET WHICH SHOULD BEGIN BOS TO PVD BETWEEN 9A-11A. 06Z GFS EXCT ON 850-500 FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSTD BANDING WHICH IS MODELED TO MOVE NEWD NOT SEWD! THAT WOULD PLACE MAX LOW WATER EQUIVALENT SNOWFALL NR HFD-ORH-BVY-ASH CORRIDOR (LOTS OF DRIFTING). ANOTHER BAND MAY FORM CLOSER TO CAPE COD LATER THIS MORNING ACROISS SE MASS AND SRN RI BUT NOT EASILY SEEN IN GFS FRONTOGENSIS TOOL. DRAG/NOCERA 811 AM. && MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOW CENTER NOW VERY PRONOUNCED ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SLIDING E/NE WITH LARGE PRES FALL AREA ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST. 10Z RUC ANALYSIS HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CURRENT AXIS OF S+ STRETCHING FROM E PA THRU HFD UP TO BVY. ALSO NOTING ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENING AND LARGE EXPANSION OF HVY PRECIP NOW EXPANDING OVER THE WATERS E OF ACY LIFTING NNE. RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS NOW OF WIND GUSTS JUST S OF CAPE AND AT MVY IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE MORNING GOES ALONG. ALSO...ACROSS SE MA ATM AMATEUR RADIO AND INCOMING NWS FCSTR SEEING SOME SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN THE WEAK REFLECTIVITY REGIONS - LIKELY WHERE UVV/SATURATION IS AT ABOUT -7/-8C PER XSECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND SITES GO BACK TO S/S+. NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AXIS OF 1/2-1/4SM SNOWS ON THE LGA-BVY LINE 30-50 MI EITHER SIDE WHILE CSI BANDS OF S/S+ LIFT N FROM THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO SE CT/RI AND SE MA. RUC AND 6Z NAM SUGGEST A SLOW ESE MVMT OF AXIS OF HVY SNOW AS IT MERGES WITH THE EXPANDING REGION NNW OF THE LOW CENTER BTWN 12-18Z. TSTMS REPORTED VCNTY NYC AND BELIEVE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A CHC OF TSTM ENHANCED HVY SNOW AS STRONG PVA AND INFLOW GETS MAXED OUT BENEATH DEFORMATION AXIS TODAY. ALSO SEEING VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE NW ZONES PER FCST. FCST ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND LOCALIZED 15+ AMOUNTS WHERE TSTM ENHANCED SNOWS OCCUR. DRV PER 530 AM UPDATE... GOOD NEWS FOR SPOTTERS...WE HAVE FOUND A WAY TO GET AROUND THE TECHNICAL PROBLEM WITH ONLINE SPOTTER REPORTS. PLEASE GO DIRECTLY TO THE SPOTTER REPORT FORM BY TYPING THE FOLLOWING INTO THE ADDRESS BAR OF YOUR BROWSER IN LOWERCASE: WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/SPOTTERREPORTFORM.HTML YOU WILL THEN BE ABLE TO ENTER YOUR REPORTS ONLINE. ALL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND DAMAGE OF MEASURED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE APPRECIATED. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. MB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE BOTH MODELS ARE CLOSE...AND SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SNOW SLIGHTLY...AND TO LOWER AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY BY AND INCH OR SO IN SOME SPOTS. BANDED NATURE TO PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LEAD TO WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT 4 AM...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM TO BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS INTACT. SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THINKING IS WE HAVE ANOTHER 7 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE...SO SEAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD AND CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HAVE POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. ONCE STORM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEPT FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE LONGER TERM. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SHIFTING POLAR VORTEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL YIELD A BROAD SW FLOW OVER THE NE. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABV NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU. THEREAFTER...SLOW MOVING FNT ACRS NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FRI AND SAT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT...AS GFS AND CMC GLOBAL HAVE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE NE FRI-SAT...WHICH WOULD PUSH FNT OFSHR. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE WEAKER AND BROADER SW FLOW ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE SFC FNT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO FNT GETTING HUNG-UP NEAR NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM CLIMO FRI AND SAT...AND LEAN TWD WARM TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED AND THU. FOR MON AND BEYOND...WEST WINDS 20-25 KT MON/MON NGT...BECOMING SW TUE AND WED. SW WNDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NGT. AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING TO IFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WITH 40-50KT AS FAR INLAND AS KPVD...KORH AND KBOS. IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. EXPECT AN INITIAL JUMP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MANY TERMINALS IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR OVERNIGHT. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RI AIRPORTS THROUGH 1 PM. WE EXPECT TO ISSUE THE SAME FOR KBOS/LOGAN A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. MARINE... STORM WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR ANY MARINERS OUT THERE AS STORM PEAKS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...50-60KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AND WE STILL THINK WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 20 PERCENT TOO LOW...A TYPICAL BIAS...SO WE BUMPED UP SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT ON OUR OUTER WATERS, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SPOTTERS... DUE TO A TECHNICAL PROBLEM ON OUR WEBSITE...THE ONLINE SPOTTER FEATURE IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN YOUR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. WE ARE SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CTZ003-004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>011-026 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MAZ007-012>024 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024 FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY. NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY. && $$ ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 615 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .UPDATE... MESOSCALE UPDATE...LOW CENTER NOW VERY PRONOUNCED ON COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SLIDING E/NE WITH LARGE PRES FALL AREA ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST. 10Z RUC ANALYSIS HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE AND CURRENT AXIS OF S+ STRETCHING FROM E PA THRU HFD UP TO BVY. ALSO NOTING ATLANTIC INFLOW STRENGTHENING AND LARGE EXPANSION OF HVY PRECIP NOW EXPANDING OVER THE WATERS E OF ACY LIFTING NNE. RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS NOW OF WIND GUSTS JUST S OF CAPE AND AT MVY IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE MORNING GOES ALONG. ALSO...ACROSS SE MA ATM AMATEUR RADIO AND INCOMING NWS FCSTR SEEING SOME SNOW PELLETS/GRAUPEL IN THE WEAK REFLECTIVITY REGIONS - LIKELY WHERE UVV/SATURATION IS AT ABOUT -7/-8C PER XSECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND SITES GO BACK TO S/S+. NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL FEATURE CONTINUED AXIS OF 1/2-1/4SM SNOWS ON THE LGA-BVY LINE 30-50 MI EITHER SIDE WHILE CSI BANDS OF S/S+ LIFT N FROM THE COASTAL WATERS UP INTO SE CT/RI AND SE MA. RUC AND 6Z NAM SUGGEST A SLOW ESE MVMT OF AXIS OF HVY SNOW AS IT MERGES WITH THE EXPANDING REGION NNW OF THE LOW CENTER BTWN 12-18Z. TSTMS REPORTED VCNTY NYC AND BELIEVE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A CHC OF TSTM ENHANCED HVY SNOW AS STRONG PVA AND INFLOW GETS MAXED OUT BENEATH DEFORMATION AXIS TODAY. ALSO SEEING VERY SHARP CUTOFF TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN THE NW ZONES PER FCST. FCST ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AND LOCALIZED 15+ AMOUNTS WHERE TSTM ENHANCED SNOWS OCCUR. DRV PER 530 AM UPDATE... GOOD NEWS FOR SPOTTERS...WE HAVE FOUND A WAY TO GET AROUND THE TECHNICAL PROBLEM WITH ONLINE SPOTTER REPORTS. PLEASE GO DIRECTLY TO THE SPOTTER REPORT FORM BY TYPING THE FOLLOWING INTO THE ADDRESS BAR OF YOUR BROWSER IN LOWERCASE: WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON/SPOTTERREPORTFORM.HTML YOU WILL THEN BE ABLE TO ENTER YOUR REPORTS ONLINE. ALL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...WIND DAMAGE OF MEASURED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WILL BE APPRECIATED. THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE. MB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE BOTH MODELS ARE CLOSE...AND SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS. MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE SNOW SLIGHTLY...AND TO LOWER AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY BY AND INCH OR SO IN SOME SPOTS. BANDED NATURE TO PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LEAD TO WIDELY VARIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AT 4 AM...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECTING THE HEIGHT OF THIS STORM TO BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT. HAVE LEFT WARNINGS INTACT. SEAS AND WINDS HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THINKING IS WE HAVE ANOTHER 7 HOURS BEFORE HIGH TIDE...SO SEAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BUILD AND CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COASTLINE SOUTH OF BOSTON. HAVE POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. ONCE STORM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEPT FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS FOR THE LONGER TERM. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A PATTERN CHANGE THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA...SHIFTING POLAR VORTEX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS REX-TYPE BLOCK WILL YIELD A BROAD SW FLOW OVER THE NE. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ABV NORMAL AWAY FROM THE COAST WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU. THEREAFTER...SLOW MOVING FNT ACRS NY STATE AND NRN NEW ENGLAND MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FRI AND SAT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT...AS GFS AND CMC GLOBAL HAVE A PIECE OF JET ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE NE FRI-SAT...WHICH WOULD PUSH FNT OFSHR. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND UKMET INDICATE WEAKER AND BROADER SW FLOW ALOFT RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE SFC FNT. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO FNT GETTING HUNG-UP NEAR NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS FRI AND SAT. GIVEN THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM CLIMO FRI AND SAT...AND LEAN TWD WARM TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED AND THU. FOR MON AND BEYOND...WEST WINDS 20-25 KT MON/MON NGT...BECOMING SW TUE AND WED. SW WNDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED NGT. AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS MORNING TO IFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER MID ATLANTIC SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 50-60KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WITH 40-50KT AS FAR INLAND AS KPVD...KORH AND KBOS. IMPROVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. EXPECT AN INITIAL JUMP TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MANY TERMINALS IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR OVERNIGHT. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT FOR RI AIRPORTS THROUGH 1 PM. WE EXPECT TO ISSUE THE SAME FOR KBOS/LOGAN A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. MARINE... STORM WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR ANY MARINERS OUT THERE AS STORM PEAKS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...50-60KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS LIKEWISE WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AND WE STILL THINK WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 20 PERCENT TOO LOW...A TYPICAL BIAS...SO WE BUMPED UP SEAS TO AROUND 20 FT ON OUR OUTER WATERS, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND MON AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SPOTTERS... DUE TO A TECHNICAL PROBLEM ON OUR WEBSITE...THE ONLINE SPOTTER FEATURE IS NOT OPERATIONAL AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN YOUR SNOW AND WIND REPORTS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. WE ARE SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CTZ003-004 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR CTZ002 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>011-026 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MAZ007-012>024 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024 FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 PM SUNDAY. NH...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. RI...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY. ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY. && $$ ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 905 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM(TODAY)... STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS. ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED. SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION. UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD. SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS. NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. XPC THIS TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS WELL. FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO. ORAGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL. XPC THIS GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO NWRN PA. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE. TNGT FLOW REMAINS 290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA. MSTR ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS. WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING. DURG THE AFTN FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA. MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES AND WED. GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA. ATTM FCST IS DRY AND WL KP CONTINUITY. GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST. && .LONG TERM(THU-SAT)... EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE. AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC TIMING/STRENGTH. THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRNG TODAY LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY TODAY CUYAHOGA...SUMMIT... PORTAGE...TRUMBULL. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...LEINS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1047 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MADE UPDATE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA COUPLED WITH RECENT RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SHOW LONGITUDINAL BANDS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO HAVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT NEAR 7-8KFT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS, GENERALLY 320-330 DEG) WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS ORIENTATION CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. FORECASTED NEW SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR THE RIDGE UP TO 2 INCHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD ALSO. ELSEWHERE NEW SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH EACH PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IS NOT SUFFICIENT NEW SNOWFALL TO TRIGGER ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO CAUTION WEEKEND TRAVELERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 401 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... LGT SN CONTS OVR THE ERN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA THIS MRNG. EXPECT LAKE AND RIDGE ENHANCED SHSN TO DVLP FURTHER LTR TDA AS NW FLOW STRENGTHENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTS OVR THE AREA. HAVE KEPT TOTALS RELATIVELY LGT OVR THESE AREAS AS PROGGED WND FIELD IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. FOR MON...HAVE DECREASE SN CHCS IN THE AFORE MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS EARLY AS BNDRY LYR WND BACKS TO THE W; HOWEVER, HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME APPRCHG SHRTWV WITH CHC NMBRS OVR THE ERN CNTY WRNG AREA DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. DAY SHIFT WL PROBABLY HAVE TO ADJUST THE ATTEMPT. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MAIN FEATURE OF THE TIME PD WL BE MODERATING TEMPS AS FLOW DEAMPLIFIES, THEN BACKS TO THE SW. OVRALL NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO EXTENDED PDS. AVIATION... BACK EDGE OF PCPN FROM EAST COAST STORM STRETCHES FROM KFKL TO KPIT TO KPKB. PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH SCT IFR CIGS IN -SN BR BEFORE PCPN PULLS OUT. MAINLY VFR VSBYS OUTSIDE OF PCPN AREAS WITH MVFR TO SCT IFR VSBYS IN PCPN. BACKING WINDS FROM 030 TO 290 TODAY WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GOOD VERTICAL ALIGNMENT FROM SFC THRU H8. LIMITING FACTORS ARE SHORT FETCH AND ONLY A 13 DEGREE C TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAKE ERIE TEMP AND H8 TEMP. ANY BANDS THAT DO FORM WILL BE NARROW WITH VSBYS GOING FROM UNL TO LESS THAN 1/4SM QUICKLY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1126 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VERMONT. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AND WILL ALSO TAKE OUT A MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WILL OPT TO KEEP UP THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR WINDSOR COUNTY...BUT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT QUITE MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL REEVALUATE THIS FOR THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE ZONES FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 423 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006) SYNOPSIS... STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SRN NEW ENG TODAY... THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONITE. SFC/UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA ON MON/MON NITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA ON TUE. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... 00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE TEENS-L20S TODAY WITH N-NE SFC WINDS AT 5-10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M20S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT VT TODAY. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH T-4" OF SN ACRS VT. H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU MON...WITH WAA DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA ON MON NITE AND TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY ON MON AND LATE ON TUE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT MUCH OF VT TODAY AND MUCH OF THE FA TONITE THRU TUE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AOB 0.2" TODAY THRU MON NITE...THEN AROUND 0.25" ON TUE. WWD SN GRAPHICS SHOW AOB 2" ACRS THE FA ON EACH DAY THRU DAY 3. 88D MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN MAKING PROGRESS ACRS REGIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ATTM. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT THIS PCPN WILL BE RUNNING INTO SOME LOW-LVL DRY AIR FIRST BEFORE IT STARTS TO AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PCPN WITH THE COASTAL STORM STILL EXPECTED TO JUST GRAZE MUCH OF THE SE/ERN FA TODAY. WILL BE TAPERING POPS OFF FROM LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF SE/ERN VT TO CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF VT TODAY. BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/NAM/NGM QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AOB 0.2" (WITH MAX AMTS ACRS SE VT) THRU 00Z TONITE. WITH THE ANTICIPATED FLUFF FACTOR...THIS MIGHT LEAD TO MAX SN AMTS OF 3-5" ACRS SE VT...WHERE THE GOING SN ADVISORY WILL BE RETAINED. LATEST NAM BUFR DATA SHOWS SOME LK CHAMP LES POSSIBLE BY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONITE AS THE UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE N-NW. ALSO...SOME LK FLOW OFF LK ONT POSSIBLE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN FA ON MON NITE/TUE. THE NEXT FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS LOOK TO JUST GIVE MUCH OF THE FA A SCHC AT SEEING SOME -SHSN. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TONITE. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... AVIATION... DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK S AND E OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED EXCEPT OCNL LOWERING TO MVFR AT KMPV AFT 16Z DUE TO VISIBILITY IN -SN. AFT 20Z CIGS LOWERING TO BKN025 AT KMPV WITH 3SM -SN. THATS ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS PRECIP WILL GET BUT KBTV KEPT A PROB30 FOR FLURRIES 22-02Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK FROM E TO N AND INCREASE AFT 20Z WITH SOME G20KTS AT KBTV AND KMPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VTZ012 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WGH vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 230 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE FORMING OVR WRN ID ATTM FCST AMPLIFY SOME AS IT SWINGS SEWRD OVR NRN UT/SWRN WY THIS EVENING AND OVR S-CNTRL WY AND CO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM REVEAL THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PRINCIPABLY AOA 550MB. RUC...NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK UPWARD QG FORCING PASSING OVR NRN CO AROUND 12Z/MON...BUT AS NOTED ABOVE...MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH QG FORCING...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW LGT SNOW SHWRS OVR THE HIGHER MTN PKS AND RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS OVR THE NRN CO MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THICK MTN WAVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS S/W TROUGH EXITING THE STATE BY AFTERNOON AND RAPID DRYING FM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. PASSAGE OF S/W EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWER/MID 50S ON THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT WARMUP IN THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH VERY COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION IN THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE UPPER COLORADO IN MIDDLE PARK. .LONG TERM DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR AND CHANCE OF SNOW BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN...FLATTENING FLOW AND RESULTANT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DONT SEE ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FEATURES TO AID HIGH WIND DEVELOPMENT. THE FLATTENING FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS NOW SUGGESTED TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO CANT RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AIDED BY RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH WYOMING. BIGGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS LIE AHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH OVERALL TROUGH AND JET PLACEMENT. THIS COULD VERY WELL DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN BETTER UPSLOPE AND STRONG Q-G FORCING ARRIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT... HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LOOKING LIKE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THURSDAY...SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME WEAK RIDGING ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS SHOWN IN THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES FOR SATURDAY. SINCE EMBEDDED WAVES COMING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME...GOING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND SEEM PRUDENT. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ BAKER/BARJENBRUCH co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1130 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .UPDATED... I HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MASON AND OCEAN COUNTIES AS BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SHOW SIMILAR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES AS IN VAN BUREN AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TOO. ACTUALLY THE BEST LIFT OVER THE NRN CWA IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA IS AFTER SUNSET. SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE EARLY TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -14C THIS EVENING IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH FOR DECENT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES... MOSTLY NEAR US-31... IS WHAT I EXPECT TO SEE FALL. INLAND OF THAT I EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA CONFIRM A SERIOUS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE I ACTUALLY THINK EVEN GETTING FLURRIES EAST OF US-131 WILL BE A STRETCH. THUS I REDUCED THE SNOW TO FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES COME IN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO I HAVE ALLOWED THE SCT SNOWS SHOWERS TO REACH THE EASTERN CWA. STILL I DO NO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AS WINDS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REALLY TAKE ANY SNOW BANDS TO FAR INLAND. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN...MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES. && $$ WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 247 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO REAL CHANGES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NOT SURE WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL DO. STILL EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THAT WAY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVE AT 850 MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN AR...WITH A CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OBS IN THE AREA ARE NOT REPORTING ANYTHING. RADAR REMAINS CLEAR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS THE CLOUDS CLEARING BY 6Z...WHILE THE MODEL HOLDS ON UNTIL ABOUT 9Z. WITH THE AIR STILL FAIRLY DRY...DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DID NOT WANT TO STRAY FROM GUIDANCE MUCH...SO TWEAKED SOME...BUT THE COOLER TEMPS REMAINED IN THE NORTH. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S THOUGH. MODELS WERE SHOWING WARM ADVECTION AND 950 TEMPS INCREASE A GOOD BIT...SO COULD NOT ARGUE WITH LOWER 50S FOR WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY. LOOKING AT CLIMATOLOGY GUIDANCE WERE OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. LOOKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE RETURNED. GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GOOD. BASICALLY NO REAL CHANGES...JUST TWEAKED THE TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS. 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SW TUESDAY AS A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE WARMER TEMPS WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY RETURN. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL FILL IN BY MID WEEK AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES WHERE CHANCE POPS REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COLUMN NOTED BY FRIDAY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS FORECAST INTO NRN MS SO WILL FOLLOW MOS WITH CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PROGRESSION. LEFT WARMER TEMPS IN FOR CENTRAL AREA FRIDAY BUT REDUCED TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO PRESENCE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FORECAST AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 27 49 30 62 / 4 0 0 3 MERIDIAN 26 48 28 61 / 5 0 0 3 VICKSBURG 27 51 30 64 / 4 0 0 3 HATTIESBURG 28 51 30 64 / 6 0 0 3 NATCHEZ 27 52 31 62 / 5 0 0 3 GREENVILLE 26 45 33 58 / 4 0 0 3 GREENWOOD 26 44 30 58 / 5 0 0 3 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 07/03 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 250 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH LOW AND SHALLOW MID LVL MOISTURE HAVE LED TO SPOTTY REPORTS OF FLURRIES...GRAUPEL...AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD S...SO HAVE EXTENDED MENTION OF TRACE AMOUNT PRECIP ALL THE WAY TO COAST. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20% BECAUSE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS AROUND 10% PERCENT OR SO...AND NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURED AS OF YET. THE NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 00Z...SO WILL HANG ON TO THEM THROUGH THEN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR CONTINUE TO FILTERS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECOUPLE. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL SWING JUST TO OUR S MON...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS TO DRY FOR ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP. THE THERMAL PROFILES DROP EVEN MORE MON...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY MAY BE THE ONLY FACTOR DRIVING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO. BY MON NT...WINDS WILL AGAIN DECOUPLE AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET AFTER DARK. TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S BEFORE WAA ON WSW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE T/TD AGAIN. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEXT WX MAKER WILL BE A LOW TO OUR NW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT. OVERALL...A DRY AND WARM WEEK ON TAP. && .AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WAS ENOUGH TO INITIATE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH AND PRODUCE SOME --SN/-IP IN THE ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER HAS LED TO VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS AND EVAPORATION OF MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH KNCA THROUGH 23Z THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH CLR SKIES EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE INLAND AROUND SUNRISE...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE TOO LARGE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING SINCE 17Z BUT WERE STILL GUSTING TO SCA LEVELS. THE GALE WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A SCA AND THE REMAINDER OF SCA'S WILL BE CONTINUED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. THE SOUNDS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER 00Z AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF LOOKOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS NORTH OF LOOKOUT UNTIL DAWN MONDAY. HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTROL THE WX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUE BUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW RIDGING WEST INTO NC THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SW AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH NO SFC REFLECTION. STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON FRI WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION DAYS 6 OR 7. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. ..SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...JAMISON AVIATION...ELARDO MARINE...ELARDO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 400 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WED)... NORTH FETCH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST SNOWS COMBINED WITH SOME ENHANCED DIURNAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DIURNAL PART TO WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW LES WILL BECOME ENHANCED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. TOWARD MORNING THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TURNING THE ATTENTION MORE TOWARD PA COUNTIES. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD OMEGA REACHING INTO SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MON ALONG WITH A LES ADV FOR PRIMARY SNOWBELT COUNTIES THROUGH NOON MONDAY AS TERRAIN WILL SQUEEZE OUT LOCALLY SEVERAL INCHES. TEMPS COULD GET COLD AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND SW EARLY...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL HINDER A DROP LIKE LAST NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FOR MON THEN FINALLY WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST TUE ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT. A CLIPPER COMES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED. BOTH SYSTEMS WITH JUST CHC POPS NORTH. TEMPS MODERATING AS HUDSON BAY LOW RETROGRADES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE RAIN IS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM(THU-SUN)... THE EXTENDED FEATURES A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. FOR OUR AREA THIS MEANS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH AN ELONGATED LOW WITH ITS FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE BRINGING MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI AS RAIN. BIG FORECAST BUST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS WITH HPC FRONTAL POSITION AT 12Z FRI RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. BUT WEEKEND LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONTINUED POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHSN FOR THE SNOWBELT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT BUYING INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH OH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES FOR END OF THE FORECAST...THIS MAY BECOME NON-EXISTENT WITH CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AHD OF THE WK WAVE OVR THE UPR LAKES. PBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME WLY TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE MAIN LES ACTION TO SHIFT TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND AWAY FROM KCLE...BUT YNG MAY SEE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WINDS TURN WLY BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVR THE WRN LAKES WL ROTATE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAISE THE INVERSION...AND CAUSE SOME FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. IN FACT...WITH THE WLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AM THINKING THAT KERI WL SEE WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL ALSO BRING BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES TONIGHT SIMPLY DUE TO THE LOWER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY)... STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS. ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED. SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHOGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION. UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD. SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS. NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. XPC THIS TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS WELL. FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL. XPC THIS GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO NWRN PA. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE. TNGT FLOW REMAINS 290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA. MSTR ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS. WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING. DURG THE AFTN FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA. MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES AND WED. GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA. ATTM FCST IS DRY AND WL KP CONTINUITY. GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST. && .LONG TERM(THU-SAT)... EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE. AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC TIMING/STRENGTH. THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY THROUGH 12PM MON LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA .PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY THROUGH 12 PM MON ERIE...CRAWFORD. && $$ SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1230 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... WINDS ARE STARTING TO BACK AHD OF THE WK WAVE OVR THE UPR LAKES. PBL WINDS SHOULD BECOME WLY TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE MAIN LES ACTION TO SHIFT TO THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AND AWAY FROM KCLE...BUT YNG MAY SEE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WINDS TURN WLY BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVR THE WRN LAKES WL ROTATE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAISE THE INVERSION...AND CAUSE SOME FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. IN FACT...WITH THE WLY FLOW DEVELOPING...AM THINKING THAT KERI WL SEE WORSENING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL ALSO BRING BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES TONIGHT SIMPLY DUE TO THE LOWER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM(TODAY)... STRONG LES BANDS COMING IN OFF OF LAKE ERIE ATTM. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE INVERSION THAT THE NAM FCSTED YESTERDAY DOES NOT EXIST. IN FACT...THE RUC NOW SHOWS STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE SNOWBELT REGION THRU EARLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST COAST LOW REMAINS. ALSO SOME HELP FROM SEEDING ALOFT FROM THE EAST COAST MOISUTRE FEED. SINCE SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW...HAVE OPTED FOR A LES WRNG FROM LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA...AND AN ADVY FOR ERN CUYAHGA...AND NRN SUMMIT...PORTAGE AND TRUMBULL. COULD SEE ANOTHER 4-7 INCHES IN THE WRNG AREA AND 2-5 IN THE ADVY REGION. UPDATE AND WSW ALREADY OUT. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BRIEF 2 TO 3 HR BURST OF LIFR SNOW AT CLE THIS MORNING...DEPOSITING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT THE FIELD. SNOWBAND IS ALMOST COMPLETELY INLAND AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT CAK AND POSSIBLY YNG BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS OF SNOW. CONDITIONS AT CLE SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AS SOON AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH OF THE FIELD WITH MVFR VSBYS LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING. ERI WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THIS MORNING...IFR AT TIMES...AND LIKE CLE...SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REALIGN AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BACKING ALL THE WAY TO 260-280 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET UP PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SNOW AT ERI AND YNG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON RESTRICTING VSBYS FOR SNOW AT CLE AND CAK AS THEY SHOULD BE SPARED THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS. NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...TOL FDY AND MFD WILL BE IN THE CLEAR THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BANDS. MFD MAY SEE IFR VSBYS DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS...BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... NLY FLOW OVER AREA FORCED BY EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING LAKE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. LOW CONTINUES MOVG NE TDA UP AND OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. XPC THIS TO HELP TO LIMIT ACCUMS AS BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING THRU THE DAY AS WELL. FOR THE MORNING NNELY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TWO BANDS TO DVLP. ONE ACRS KCLE AND ONE ACRS ASHTABULA CO. ORAGRAPHIC LIFT ALSO HELPING TO ESTABLISH SHWRS ACRS LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES AS WELL. XPC THIS GNRL PTTN TO CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING BASED ON BUFKIT FCST FLOW. BY AFTERNOON WNDS SHIFT TO NW FAVORING LOCALS EAST OF CLE AND INTO NWRN PA. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND 5KFT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH SO THIS TOO WILL LIMIT ACCUMS. MSTR IS HWVR A BIT BETTER OVER ERI. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS IN FAVORED SNOW AREAS AND DROP BACK TO CHC OUTSIDE. TNGT FLOW REMAINS 290 TO 300 THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD FAVOR NWRN PA. MSTR ALSO DEEPENS FROM TODAY AND INVN LIFTS. WILL INCREASE ACCUMS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MONDAY ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW -14C AT 850MB ACRS THE LAKE IN WNW FLOW THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING. DURG THE AFTN FLOW BACKS WHICH SHOULD PUSH ANY BANDS OFF SHORE. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY IN NWRN PA. MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT WARM ADVN PTTN SET UP ACRS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR ABV FREEZING TEMPS TUES AND WED. GFS MORE MOIST MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA. ATTM FCST IS DRY AND WL KP CONTINUITY. GFS HWVR KPS DP MSTR N OF THE AREA TUES AND WED SO WL CONT WITH DRY AND PC FCST. && .LONG TERM(THU-SAT)... EXTENDED MAY OFFER A WARMUP PERIOD WITH TEMPS 45+ FOR MID WEEK IF OPERATIONAL GFS HOLDS TRUE. AT ANY RATE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR END OF THE WEEK WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS WITH WARMEST OF THE ENSEMBLES WITH A STRONGER LOW AND THEREFORE MORE ABILITY TO PUSH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. NUDGED TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED WITH ECMWF/HPC TIMING/STRENGTH. THEREFORE RA AND RA/SN IN THE WX GRIDS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRNG TODAY LAKE...GEAUGA...ASHTABULA LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY TODAY CUYAHOGA...SUMMIT... PORTAGE...TRUMBULL. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...MRD oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 150 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... EXPECT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 THIS EVENING, BASED ON RECENT RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOWING A NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH 7 KFT AGL WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM 310-330 DEGREES WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE UNSTABLE LAYER. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS OBSERVED ON RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. MOST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, BUT SPOTTY LOCATIONS UNDER MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS COULD GET 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND THE INSTABILITY AND MIXING DEPTH DECREASE, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WANE TO FLURRIES. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE RIDGES AND I-80 SECTIONS WHERE WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES STILL ALLOW SOME LAKE MOISTURE INFLUX. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFERINGS AS NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RENDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. AS A CONSEQUENCE OF OUR AIR SOURCE BEING MORE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN THAN THE ARCTIC OCEAN, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. HOWEVER, THE MILD TEMPERATURES APPEAR SHORT-LIVED, AS GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A RENEWAL OF A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL PUSH AT LEAST 2 COLD FRONTS AND ENSUING SURGES OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN, BUT BY LATE FRIDAY, ALL SNOW. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ENTRENCHED FOR A FEW DAYS, THE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... AS MENTIONED IN SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION, EXPECT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 THIS EVENING. UNDER THESE SNOW BANDS, THERE CAN BE 1SM-2SM -SN OVC008-OVC015. WIND GUSTS CAN PEAK AT 20KT-25KT. DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING, ALBEIT AT A REDUCED VERTICAL EXTENT, MVFR CEILINGS (OVC020-BKN030) SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABATING, VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE P6SM. WINDS WILL SWITCH INTO WESTSOUTHWEST. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ pa