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000
FXUS04 KWBC 142146
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
545 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 15/0000 UTC THRU MAR 18/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
18Z UPDATE...
MODELS DONT SEEM TO BE HANDLING SECONDARY WAVE OF PCPN LIFTING
NEWD ALONG THE TX COAST TOWARD LA. LATEST ECMWF SEEMS DRY FROM
18-00Z PD BUT DOES SEEM TO HOLD ONTO HEAVIER AMOUNTS WWD ACRS
SRN/CNTL LA AFTER 00Z WHICH BASED ON CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION SEEMS
REASONABLE. HAVE THEREFOR NUDGED PCPN AMOUNTS UP A BIT ACRS PARTS
OF THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTL GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE..NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
...NWRN U.S...
A MULTI DAY HEAVY PCPN EVENT UNDERWAY ACRS THE NWRN U.S. AS A
SERIES OF NERN PAC HT FALLS WL ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE NWRN U.S. ON
THE SRN SIDE OF THE MEAN MID TO UPR VORTEX OVR THE NERN PAC. THIS
WL SUPPORT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW DURG THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ONSHORE
FLOW WL STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 ASSOC WITH THE LEAD VORT MOVG
TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
SAT NIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN EARLY SUN AS A MORE POTENT
SFC WAVE PUSHES TOWARD THE WA COAST. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX
DAY 1 IS AIMED AT OREGON SWD INTO NWRN CA....WITH AREAL AVG PCPN
AMTS OF 2-3"+ DEPICTED THRU THE OR CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO
NWRN CA. LIGHTER PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER NWD THRU THE WA
CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN
OR...NERN WA...CNTRL TO NRN ID AND NWRN MT. FOR QPF DETAILS...THE
DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE HEAVIER ECMWF AND SREF MEAN.
..CNTRL GULF COAST...SERN U.S...MID ATL...
AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST DAY 1
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...NEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND SRN MID
ATL. WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AS SHRTWV ENERGY PUSHES NEWD IN THE BROAD SWLY MID TO
UPR LEVEL FLOW ACRS THESE AREAS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE AXIS OF MAX PCPN
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SRN MID ATL..WITH AREAL AVG
.50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED. FOR QPF DETAILS THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN
WERE USED.
NRN MAINE...
AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM QB INTO NRN MAINE
THIS PERIOD. ENHANCED UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY WL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR NRN MAINE. THE
OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE AGREE THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WL BE
LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN .10"...WITH THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING
FROM THIS CONSENSUS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMPARED TO THE PREV FORECAST. A POSITIVELY
TILTED SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS INTO THE EAST BEFORE REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUES
MORNING. THE RESULTANT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THRU TUES AS THE MID
LVL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH MOIST SWLY LOW/MID LVL FLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OVERRUNNING A RATHER LARGE DOME OF
MODESTLY COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD FOSTER AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF LGT TO
MDT RAINS. WARM SECTOR CONVECTION HOWEVER IS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...AND HENCE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED HERE LOCALLY. HPC FOLLOWED A NON-GFS
CONSENSUS ACRS THE EAST WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LED
PRIMARILY BY THE 00Z ECMWF...AND WITH THE 12Z GFS APPEARING TO BE
TOO PROGRESSIVE.
...PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A DEEP VORTEX INVOF THE GULF OF AK WILL HELP TRANSPORT A SERIES OF
SHRTWV IMPULSES UNDERNEATH IT AND EWD INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PD. EACH IMPULSE WILL ACCOMPANIED BY COPIOUS AMTS OF
MOISTURE AND GIVEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL JET DYNAMICS...MDT
TO HVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACRS SWRN OR AND NWRN CA WHERE
PERSISTENT DEEP LYR ONSHORE FLOW AND ENHANCED FORCING ASSOC WITH A
FRONT SHOULD AFFORD HVY RAINFALL RATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE LED BY
THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ALSO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT H85/H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN DOWNWIND INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...PARTICULARLY THE SAWTOOTH...BITTERROOTS AND
TETONS. THIS GENERAL PCPN AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WILL ALSO TEND TO
FOCUS IN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AS IT PUSHES INLAND WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LVLS WILL HELP
FOSTER HVY ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES. HPC QPF FAVORED A SOLN
GENERALLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...GIVEN THE
PREFERRED MASS FIELDS OVER THE 12Z NAM.
ORAVEC/ORRISON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 16/00Z
0.01 486685 484678 481674 477672 471669 465668 462674 462678
460687 460694 461701 464708 465716 465724 465731 469743
472751 474754 474758 475766 479805 482819 484831 486842
487847 491851 495856 498857 501856 504859 506853 504839
505830 502819 501807 502802 500797 498785 497773 496767
493753 492745 490727 491720 490715 489704 486687 486685
0.01 531224 535213 536202 535192 533186 522168 517161 513154
498140 490131 482125 463128 460123 459117 456108 454105
450101 444097 438096 434092 427087 426087 425091 427098
428102 428109 427117 428121 435120 437120 440121 443124
445133 446138 441137 437135 433136 430138 427143 423151
418154 416157 413160 411164 410168 411172 415180 419182
423179 427175 428172 431168 435167 438169 442174 445178
445179 441181 438185 436187 437193 440202 439206 437206
433204 428200 423198 420197 417198 414202 413208 409207
405205 401202 396200 389198 386195 382193 378195 377197
378202 380207 384211 387214 392217 393219 388218 367213
363217 365223 369235 379240 385242 388244 394250 400254
408258 413261 419262 429264 433265 437266 440265 449263
456262 461262 466261 474264 481268 489275 495282 499286
506287 509285 512281 517271 519261 520252 519245 517241
513229 510222 506211 511214 520224 523227 528229 531224
0.01 403719 401710 397702 394697 390695 387694 383694 376700
371709 364717 359731 354737 351742 347750 341759 338766
333780 325797 319806 313813 301826 299829 298834 296841
292855 287866 282872 271886 262897 254910 248926 243942
240951 240958 241967 242975 249985 253991 256994 261996
263997 267996 272990 276984 278981 282979 289977 298970
303962 306959 309957 314955 316952 322946 323942 324938
324928 325918 329908 333899 337891 342885 345882 348884
353892 358901 363905 371899 374894 375888 376877 379868
383861 387855 393846 397840 406817 410808 412798 412785
412776 409754 403719
0.01 350082 350075 348072 348065 346061 341058 338056 333055
327057 327060 327065 329072 330077 333082 338081 344082
347083 350082
0.01 348110 346106 343102 341099 340099 338098 337099 338101
338102 338103 336106 336109 337112 340113 342113 343113
346112 348110
0.01 320095 320091 318089 318088 316087 313087 311088 310088
309091 309094 310097 311098 313099 315099 318098 320095
0.25 526198 523189 518181 513171 507163 502158 497154 494147
490139 486134 479131 474133 474138 478139 484143 484149
482151 476150 465141 461141 458143 455147 451150 447148
442145 438144 436144 434147 432151 433157 437162 446170
449175 449180 446187 448193 451195 453193 463182 468176
471174 480177 486182 494185 499185 503187 508190 519199
522201 525199 526198
0.25 512261 513255 513251 511245 508235 504225 501214 498208
494204 488203 483204 476206 468208 461207 458209 451213
441213 437212 432209 428205 423203 420206 421210 421216
419221 414215 404210 397204 390201 388203 387205 388209
394215 404220 406225 403228 394227 390224 386223 382226
381230 385235 392241 411253 421257 430258 440258 449257
457255 464254 476257 487262 494268 499275 503276 504274
506263 511262 512261
0.25 444109 444108 441106 438107 438108 438109 441111 444111
444109
0.25 389741 387734 384729 380725 375725 371728 366734 359745
354757 348771 343784 338795 332805 314827 303847 291872
282893 271917 267929 264940 261955 262962 264967 268968
272966 279963 288958 294954 297948 300941 303936 315917
327891 333880 336875 339871 361851 366845 370840 375830
380814 382799 384784 386771 389753 389741
0.50 509255 497211 493209 490208 484208 476209 469211 464210
460211 455214 451214 442215 437214 432213 426209 421221
420228 417228 416226 413218 402212 397207 391205 391207
392210 396213 400216 405218 408223 407229 401231 396232
394233 393237 401244 411250 418253 425255 437254 445253
459249 466249 471249 480252 482252 485250 486246 484243
481235 477229 476224 482223 487225 491229 493232 498241
502247 505253 509255
0.50 486165 485160 479157 475154 472150 468146 465144 462146
461152 462157 467161 469164 475166 478168 482169 486165
0.50 452172 453167 453163 454159 453156 452155 450153 447151
445150 444149 442147 439146 436148 436149 435152 435154
436156 438159 440161 443163 446166 448170 449171 451173
452172
0.50 381754 380747 379742 375737 369740 366743 360751 355761
351774 348786 345795 339805 333815 325822 320827 318830
313837 306849 301858 294874 288886 285896 279913 275925
275933 277939 282948 287946 290944 298935 303926 309919
313911 330872 339862 348854 356846 359843 361838 363831
363825 364817 365812 371790 377769 381754
1.00 478243 479239 479237 477234 476233 474233 473235 471236
472240 474242 475242 478243 478243
1.00 464238 461230 464225 469217 465214 461214 454216 448217
434217 429217 426219 424223 427232 422234 413232 407235
402240 409245 415248 423250 429251 436250 449246 456244
461242 464238
1.00 469153 468149 467153 467154 469153
1.00 445154 444153 441153 440153 441154 444155 445154
1.00 368761 364759 361765 359769 358778 355789 353799 350807
349812 351815 355807 358798 362789 365780 367770 368764
368761
1.00 354835 354830 352826 350823 347821 344822 339826 325840
316849 313852 309854 305858 303864 300872 296882 293890
291900 289907 290910 299912 302910 306906 311898 314889
324871 331862 335856 340851 345848 352840 354835
1.50 464221 463217 461217 455217 452218 446218 440218 437219
431220 427221 427225 429228 435232 437233 439231 444228
447227 450226 457225 461224 464221
1.50 447241 442239 437234 431236 428236 422235 416234 412235
409238 410242 415245 420247 426248 430248 435246 438245
442244 447241
1.50 324860 319861 314863 309865 307868 304872 303877 303878
307881 310882 312880 315877 319872 321868 323864 324860
2.00 462221 460219 457218 456219 457221 460222 462221
2.00 452222 451221 448220 445220 442219 439221 436221 435221
435225 436226 437226 438226 441227 444226 447226 448225
451222 452222
2.00 432245 432240 430239 428238 425237 422236 419235 416235
415235 413238 412238 413239 415242 418244 421245 423246
426246 429246 432245
3.00 427243 424240 422239 419239 417240 418241 421243 424243
427243
24HR QP VT 17/00Z
0.01 524261 514219 515215 519214 526216 529219 532221 534220
536216 537210 538201 537197 536189 532180 530176 528170
522163 515155 507146 500140 495135 492131 485125 483125
479121 478120 480115 482112 486110 498111 501107 503103
504099 503094 502087 497072 497068 493067 489075 483081
480085 475083 472080 470077 469073 468059 465051 463047
459047 456049 453051 453058 453067 451069 447068 440066
438067 438070 438073 441075 447081 449085 447088 441086
435086 430085 424084 421088 422094 423100 420110 417114
416117 416121 418127 419130 418134 416142 413145 406149
403151 403155 411157 415160 417164 419166 417168 415171
413175 415180 416185 419189 423192 422196 416196 413196
408198 405200 400198 394194 384190 379189 376191 374196
376202 380211 384215 378218 373214 370217 368220 370229
373235 378242 381245 386249 395255 401258 407259 417262
426263 434262 448258 458256 470261 481266 487274 493280
496282 498288 502294 505297 509297 512294
0.01 487197 489191 488188 484186 479184 474180 468181 464187
458190 454197 454201 456204 465205 468205 471202 478199
481200 484197 487197
0.01 419785 419778 416773 411767 403766 396768 391771 386769
378762 378755 379750 379742 377721 373719 371720 367718
363720 354726 346730 340736 334745 328759 323766 321772
318783 315792 308808 302821 299828 295834 284849 277863
272877 268884 267887 269892 270895 269899 267903 266913
264932 267940 268946 265954 262960 253975 254983 256988
260989 264989 268986 272981 276976 280970 289954 294948
300940 306939 314940 317941 321940 324934 327930 329927
335924 337921 339915 340911 345902 348887 349879 351873
353871 385868 389870 393872 400874 403874 408872 410871
412866 409854 407844 407831 408824 410819 413813 416804
419798 419794 419785
0.01 437128 434125 431127 431128 430131 431133 434132 435132
437128 437128
0.01 427151 427147 427145 424145 423146 422150 424153 427152
427151
0.25 515272 517265 518258 515249 511237 507227 504219 499212
495208 491205 483205 474206 468209 458210 450213 434212
426205 421206 417208 402205 394201 386202 384207 385209
390217 389220 385222 379225 379229 380233 384238 392246
399250 407253 414254 424254 432253 447250 456248 465249
473252 481258 488265 494273 501280 504281 509279 512276
515272
0.25 525198 523188 519179 515174 511170 507168 502166 481129
457126 457119 458115 463107 467106 464104 459097 456095
454094 449095 444096 439095 435096 432101 429106 428111
429116 433117 439116 443120 446124 449126 450130 449134
447137 444138 439137 436140 433147 432152 432164 427168
427176 427180 429184 433183 436183 438185 438188 441191
449189 453186 456182 459177 459170 461166 471169 478169
484172 492175 497177 501181 508188 517195 520198 525199
525198
0.25 483151 484147 483146 480144 477143 474146 477149 479151
480151 482152 483151
0.25 364759 362752 359747 356744 352742 346744 341749 335757
331765 328775 320796 314813 309824 305833 299840 294847
289858 287869 285876 284886 279910 276928 277934 281936
288935 292932 306921 320906 332890 340869 347852 353840
359832 362828 363824 357819 354810 354803 354797 356792
360784 362776 364767 364759
0.50 512261 512255 510249 507236 503229 501223 499218 497214
494213 483209 478209 473210 467213 462213 452214 443215
433216 427216 423219 418223 416216 401207 395204 391204
389207 391213 395218 397222 393225 389227 386229 386234
387236 390241 399248 410251 418251 425251 430249 438246
456244 468243 477247 482252 484255 491265 499274 502276
504272 504267 503262 500257 497254 495249 492243 489240
485239 482239 480236 476232 471231 468227 469223 474221
478221 485222 489226 492230 493236 496241 500248 503253
506259 508262 511262 512261
0.50 487139 486137 484134 483133 481132 478133 477133 476137
477138 480138 481138 483139 486140 487139
0.50 476163 478160 476157 473153 471149 468143 463140 457141
449146 445146 442143 439141 436144 434147 434156 435160
437165 445171 449175 451177 454176 457164 460161 464160
472164 476163
0.50 452118 455114 455110 454105 453101 453100 450101 447102
444101 441099 438099 437100 435103 434104 433108 435112
438112 441114 443115 445117 446118 449120 452118 452118
0.50 359762 358756 356751 353749 348749 343753 339757 335765
329780 322798 317811 311828 295857 293865 292873 290884
288891 285899 284907 284912 286917 288920 292921 298918
304913 312906 318900 325887 329879 332868 347838 349830
348820 350800 351791 353783 356773 359762 359762
1.00 505244 505243 503238 502237 500233 500232 499227 498225
496222 496221 495222 494226 495230 495231 497235 497236
499239 502242 502243 504244 505244
1.00 463221 460218 458218 455218 453218 451218 449218 446218
443218 442219 440223 442225 444226 447226 449225 451225
454223 454222 457221 460222 463221
1.00 456155 457152 456151 454151 453151 450152 447152 444150
443149 441148 439146 437148 436152 436156 438159 440161
443163 446164 449164 451163 452162 454159 455156 456155
1.00 428243 428239 422235 414230 414224 413217 402213 394210
401218 404220 404224 403228 396231 394236 397241 405247
411248 416247 424246 428243
1.00 343778 341776 338779 335783 329795 320819 317829 312843
307852 301864 301870 300875 294887 288898 289904 294904
304898 310894 314889 320879 322873 323866 324860 326855
335844 338839 340833 341825 341819 341811 342804 343789
343778
1.50 445158 444154 441151 438152 438153 438154 439157 441158
443159 445158
1.50 425243 424238 419235 414233 412231 412227 413222 410219
407221 406229 403232 400235 399238 401240 406244 412245
417246 421245 425243
1.50 315874 315871 312868 309868 307870 304874 302878 299882
297886 294890 292893 291897 293899 296897 299895 303891
305888 308886 311882 314877 315874
2.00 423242 422239 419237 417236 416236 413235 411232 409230
409226 410222 410221 409222 409226 408229 407233 404235
403236 403240 404240 406242 409242 412243 415244 417244
418244 421243 423242
24HR QP VT 18/00Z
0.01 530790 527777 524768 514754 501750 495750 488750 482751
474756 467762 461769 453781 449788 446796 446805 449816
450822 450829 450838 450846 447856 448862 449868 450879
450897 450903 452909 456914 460913 462911 464902 467883
470874 473868 477860 483854 490849 498844 506839 511833
516827 518818 521814 525811 528807 529801 529793 530790
0.01 523261 521255 519245 517238 512229 505216 500209 496204
492203 488201 482200 478200 475202 468205 463206 457199
458193 464190 469187 474182 480180 482183 485185 503190
510194 514199 518205 521209 525210 531208 533205 535200
534195 532191 528183 527176 528174 525169 522164 517157
506146 500143 497141 495138 489131 484126 460129 454130
451133 450137 449142 446144 441142 436143 433149 432154
435162 440168 444174 444179 441182 437189 437197 440200
441203 444205 447202 448198 449201 448206 447212 440214
434214 428218 426220 424226 423230 421232 416235 414244
414251 417259 423266 437271 441272 448271 459265 466263
474265 478266 482270 487275 496291 500296 505299 510299
0.01 484971 483966 480965 477966 473970 471970 470966 471961
473952 477937 478933 479927 478923 474920 470922 465927
462933 459946 453971 452980 451985 451002 452015 452031
450048 448055 445060 439069 440074 442076 445080 448084
447089 440088 433089 427090 425092 427096 427100 424103
421108 416113 411111 409105 405106 403110 399109 395110
393116 394118 397119 411121 417120 423120 426124 431123
438120 445124 448125 452122 455121 458117 462112 464106
461097 462088 465081 467077 468071 469062 469052 468043
470034 475020 479011 480004 481997 481987 481980 484971
0.01 410786 408781 404776 389781 384781 382780 380775 381769
384763 386757 386751 384742 380737 376733 370732 359730
353733 346736 336745 332750 326755 319764 311775 305783
301787 297794 294804 276819 271829 268834 264839 258847
255853 256856 258860 266863 271859 273863 272867 271872
275879 278882 282884 292889 297892 303892 309891 314892
324896 330898 334895 339890 344885 351862 353857 357852
364842 367836 370831 379821 383815 388810 393807 398800
400795 404793 410786
0.01 412227 414223 415219 414214 408213 403210 399208 395204
391206 391210 396214 399216 404219 407222 408229 409230
412227
0.01 416076 416070 415068 415064 413060 410058 404054 400053
395057 392061 388063 384062 382066 382072 383076 387077
389080 392082 398086 402084 404083 411080 416076
0.25 508283 511275 513266 511251 510245 509237 504226 499217
496213 491210 486207 480207 470210 454214 446217 440218
437222 436229 434236 433241 433245 437250 443251 452250
461250 467251 473254 481259 488268 495277 498280 504284
508283
0.25 507174 503169 499163 492157 489156 485155 479156 475155
471154 465149 462153 463157 467161 470167 478170 485174
487175 492176 498174 507175 507174
0.25 461182 459179 456179 455181 456183 459183 461182
0.25 450101 450098 449097 447096 446097 444098 441100 439104
439108 441110 444111 446112 449109 449105 450102 450101
0.25 370759 371755 370752 366746 356744 352745 346747 340752
338755 332765 328774 324784 319792 317797 317802 315812
314816 314819 318821 324822 329823 335833 336840 338843
341842 344839 345834 344826 343819 343814 345809 347803
349798 355790 361780 366771 370760 370759
0.25 313823 311814 306812 298815 293818 288823 285827 283828
285831 285835 287840 290837 293835 298834 303834 308832
308831 307829 309828 312825 313823
0.50 503271 501266 496260 492256 489250 481239 478234 474232
471231 469226 471222 475217 482218 490222 493226 497233
501238 503238 504234 499222 494217 488214 464215 452217
448219 445220 443223 448228 446232 441237 440242 441245
447246 453245 465244 472246 479250 489261 495269 501274
503271
0.50 362760 362756 360752 358750 354749 350750 343755 337763
332775 329784 324796 325802 329806 335805 338804 341801
347791 353781 359771 361766 362760
1.00 354757 350756 345760 343763 341767 340772 338776 337781
339786 342782 345777 347773 349769 351766 353761 354757
$$
