QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 140949
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 548 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
  
  
 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID MAR 14/1200 UTC THRU MAR 17/1200 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 UPDATED...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS FM THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1
 QPF. BASICALLY THE ECMWF REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
 PREVIOUS RUN AND THE 0600 UTC GFS DID SLOW AT TAD THE EWD
 PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS COMPARED TO
 ITS 0000 UTC RUN.
 
 ...NWRN U.S...
 
 NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT HERE AS
 PCPN IS TRIGGERED BY A SHRTWV ADVANCING TO THE PAC NW COAST BY MID
 PD AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SECOND SYSTEM FCST TO APCH THE
 COAST BY SUNDAY MRNG.  A STRONG LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH
 WILL BE AVBL THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SUPPORT THE EVENT WITH MDT TO
 HVY PCPN TOTALS EXPECTED.  WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HERE
 GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL AS STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY
 FM RUN TO RUN.
 
 ..INVOF THE SERN U.S...
 
 WITH ONE EXCEPTION..THE GFS..GEM REGIONAL AND 13/1200 UTC ECMWF
 QPFS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD ACCORD HANDLING THE QPF ASOCTD WITH
 SHRTWV ENERGY BEING SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S.  THE ONCE
 EXCEPTION IS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH
 ADVANCING THE PCPN EWD..A BIAS NOTED FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. 
 BELIEVE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS TO SLOW THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE GFS
 QPF BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BUT NOT AS
 SLOW TNGTS GEM REGIONAL.  OTHER THAN THE DISPLACEMENT
 ISSUE..BELIEVE THE GFS RNFL TOTALS AND AREAL COVERAGE ARE VERY
 REASONABLE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBLTY AND THE
 DURATION OF THE EVENT.  THE NAMS QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEEMS
 UNDERDONE AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO FIT ITS OWN MASS FIELD DETAILS.  
  
  
 DAYS 2 AND 3...
 
 ...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION...
 A PARTIALLY PHASED... GENERALLY SPLIT FLOW POSITIVE TILTED UPPER
 TROUGH... WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE EAST
 BEFORE REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUES MORNING. THE RESULTANT
 WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
 STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUN AND MON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
 STRETCHING BACK AND OVERRUNNING INTO THE MODEST COLD SECTOR TO
 INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OH VLY INTO THE
 MID-ATL STATES. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE LACK OF
 CONTINUITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SMALL SCALE PARTICULATES
 AND HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS
 WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR BOTH DAYS. AS MENTIONED... EXPECT MOST OF
 THE FOCUS OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO ALIGN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
 VERY SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE DEEP GULF OF MEXICO
 MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING. EXPECT A GOOD INCH OR MORE IN QPF
 AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF MS/AL NEWRD THROUGH
 CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO ERN SC/NC OVER THE 48 HR FCST PERIOD AND
 GENERALLY A .10 TO .25 INCH ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION INTO THE
 APPALACHIAN SPINE.             
 
 ...PAC NW AND INTER-MOUNTAINS...
 A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF WA SUN MORNING WILL STEER A
 WEALTH OF PAC MOISTURE AND AN IMPRESSIVE 140KT 250 MB JET INTO
 OR/NRN CA ON SUN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES THE CRITICAL LARGE
 SCALE DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE VERY WELL... SUGGESTING THE
 ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NW/NRN CA AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN
 INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION TO BE VERY ACTIVE ON SUN WITH POTENTIAL
 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EXTREMELY HEAVY OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. THIS
 GENERALLY AXIS OF HEAVY QPF WILL FOCUS IN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
 JET OR INTO SRN OR/NRN CA COAST INTO THE OR CASCADES AND NRN CA
 MTNS. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24 HR PERIOD COULD EASILY
 REACH 4 INCHES IN SWRN OR/NWRN CA. ON MON... THE LOW UPPER HEIGHTS
 ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...
 WHICH WILL DECREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN THE
 UPPER JET INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINING
 SOUTH OF AK CLOSING OFF A LARGE SCALE UPPER VORTEX AND DIGGING
 HEIGHTS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PAC. AS A RESULT... EXPECT THE
 ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BUT AT
 A MUCH MORE MODEST PACE.    
 
 KORTY/MUSHER
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 24HR QP VT 15/12Z
  0.01 540202 539191 535182 531172 525164 523159 518152 512147 
       507143 503141 501141 498138 491131 484125 477123 469123 
       464127 460125 457122 456118 454109 455102 454096 449094 
       444095 440096 437096 435100 433101 430104 426109 422111 
       418111 411113 409117 408121 409122 414123 418125 420128 
       419142 417151 416161 417164 417169 415172 414178 415182 
       418185 423192 428192 431189 435184 435190 437197 439206 
       436207 431205 424199 420199 418201 419210 420213 419215 
       411211 406207 400204 396201 391201 389202 386205 386209 
       390217 385219 383220 380224 380227 382233 386239 393245 
       406256 419262 423265 428265 435265 449261 456261 466263 
       474266 481270 486277 491285 496292 502295 508293 515285 
       518279 519265 520255 519244 517230 519224 522226 525232 
       528233 530233 534230 
  0.01 476198 477194 476191 473190 470191 468192 467192 463194 
       463195 461199 463202 465202 468201 469200 472199 475199 
       476198 
  0.01 398723 396715 393707 390703 385702 376705 367709 360716 
       355721 353726 346737 339746 334756 329765 327768 324772 
       324777 325779 329781 334780 338780 340784 340787 336796 
       332802 328809 323817 318824 312831 305838 295854 289865 
       286876 284885 279894 272908 262926 259935 256946 252964 
       250973 251983 257992 260994 267995 276990 284981 289975 
       294967 298960 301951 302940 306931 312922 318911 321908 
       326908 331908 337905 344902 344907 342912 333932 330944 
       328955 328962 330969 330974 331977 334980 336983 339984 
       347981 356975 360971 363966 366962 367956 371943 373930 
       373917 373906 375895 385877 397853 402844 407833 410824 
       412814 413802 410794 407789 402786 399781 398774 398768 
       399755 399744 399732 398723 
  0.01 441125 440119 438117 435118 431123 428127 426131 426139 
       425147 424154 427159 430159 429153 430147 429144 430143 
       432136 435132 438128 441125 
  0.01 387076 383072 379070 375065 370061 366061 362063 358065 
       358067 355072 350075 347075 340072 335071 330072 326074 
       324080 321088 317089 314093 316096 320098 321098 321101 
       312104 311107 313110 318113 323111 328111 332112 333113 
       337118 340123 344126 352125 354124 356121 354114 351110 
       348105 349098 353095 359093 363088 363084 367083 377087 
       382085 384079 387076 
  0.25 531204 531198 529189 524178 516167 508159 505154 499151 
       489144 488148 485152 482152 476150 471147 468145 464146 
       461149 458150 454150 447150 444150 440154 441157 443160 
       446164 449167 452169 453167 456160 458158 461158 465162 
       467167 477173 486182 495190 500193 505194 513198 516201 
       520206 524210 530208 531204 
  0.25 513266 514257 512247 511236 507228 500213 495205 491203 
       486202 458210 448213 431214 425218 421223 420226 415227 
       412224 402231 396234 398240 403245 410249 422254 431255 
       436254 452252 464251 472253 481257 486263 490269 495277 
       501284 507284 511279 513266 
  0.25 494240 493239 491235 491234 489230 487228 486227 483226 
       480226 480227 481231 482233 485236 485237 488236 489238 
       490239 493241 494240 
  0.25 382741 380735 377732 374731 369732 367735 357763 353775 
       349786 338809 331821 325830 308851 302861 298870 293884 
       288895 285906 283918 279947 280953 280957 279960 277966 
       278970 280970 284967 287962 290956 292948 296936 300927 
       312905 315899 319895 325892 332890 343883 353880 361880 
       366879 371876 377867 382860 385853 391840 394827 394819 
       390811 387804 386798 385779 385759 382741 
  0.50 506277 506273 504267 499260 494251 492248 488242 483241 
       479234 476230 474225 475224 481223 486224 489225 492230 
       494235 497240 503248 505248 506242 505237 504233 500224 
       498218 495213 487208 483207 479207 472211 464213 455214 
       448215 439216 431218 428219 425224 426231 416231 413231 
       408233 405235 406241 409244 413246 419249 428251 438251 
       445250 462247 469247 478248 484251 487256 492265 497274 
       500278 504279 506277 
  0.50 492171 491166 490165 487163 485161 484160 482158 479158 
       476158 475159 476162 476163 478166 480168 481169 483172 
       486174 489173 492171 
  0.50 377779 375765 371761 368760 365762 362767 359777 351793 
       346801 342811 333825 321841 311854 305861 301869 295885 
       290904 290924 290928 290930 293929 298922 305909 310900 
       315894 322888 331884 340878 351873 362870 370866 377856 
       380847 382839 382829 381823 378817 377807 377791 377779 
  1.00 463238 462232 459229 456232 452232 446233 439235 433237 
       425237 421236 417236 415240 420245 426246 434245 441245 
       447244 454243 460240 463238 
  1.00 463225 465222 463220 458218 453218 449218 443219 439220 
       436223 432224 435229 441229 447229 450228 455227 459227 
       463225 
  1.00 352825 350818 348816 346819 340828 327844 316860 308867 
       305871 302876 299885 297895 296901 297904 301904 305900 
       309893 316885 324879 331877 337874 353861 357858 357852 
       351851 348848 348844 349839 352833 352829 352825 
  1.50 449238 449237 446237 449238 449238 
  1.50 451222 451221 448220 446220 445220 442222 441223 442224 
       444226 448225 451222 451222 
  1.50 424242 421240 420241 421242 424242 424242 
  1.50 339845 339841 337841 333845 326855 320864 313872 308875 
       304880 302885 302891 304890 308885 312881 317877 327871 
       331868 335864 337851 339845  
  
 24HR QP VT 16/12Z
  0.01 524261 524255 522249 517238 514224 514220 516217 519215 
       527217 533218 536216 538211 539202 536191 533180 527169 
       522162 514152 502140 495134 489129 484126 480125 476120 
       478113 481111 486110 493108 497095 498080 497068 493067 
       491072 485080 477085 470087 466090 463093 459095 455093 
       452090 446089 439088 433088 427083 424084 422087 421091 
       423095 422099 419101 414102 409101 406103 403107 401110 
       399115 400117 404120 411123 416126 417130 416135 414141 
       409149 403155 402157 403161 408161 409166 412178 415184 
       418189 422192 428191 431188 434187 435191 435197 437202 
       437205 436206 432204 427199 425196 423194 418195 410195 
       407198 401201 396197 385195 378196 375198 375202 378206 
       380210 380215 370213 367215 364214 362214 361216 362220 
       364225 367228 374235 380240 393251 409261 425267 434270 
       440271 445270 455270 462272 469275 477283 481285 485285 
       489280 495286 503295 507298 510297 
  0.01 469703 468699 468695 465694 464698 464699 464703 465706 
       467707 469704 469703 
  0.01 415750 413743 409740 404740 402734 402729 399722 392716 
       386713 378710 369711 364713 360716 352724 345733 340740 
       334749 329758 327767 322781 319791 315800 308816 303824 
       300831 296840 292845 289849 289854 289860 287864 279880 
       274897 273905 273911 272914 272925 269935 263950 254964 
       252971 251977 253982 255992 258995 265994 280986 287986 
       290990 293998 295999 301000 305998 307994 310986 315978 
       319970 318966 315963 312960 308958 305957 305952 311946 
       315940 319931 323922 332906 339890 345871 349862 355856 
       360853 365852 368854 370861 372867 374872 380877 384878 
       390874 394867 398863 399858 400851 403846 406844 410839 
       408833 406830 405824 408820 412812 413807 413799 411790 
       417785 418783 418779 418774 415771 412769 412763 412758 
       415750 
  0.01 442129 443125 440122 434123 431127 430131 428135 428139 
       426143 424147 424154 426159 429161 431164 432160 431156 
       430148 433140 434136 438132 442129 
  0.25 513251 507230 504221 500212 492205 488204 482203 468206 
       459208 456210 452211 449213 445213 435211 427205 423204 
       418205 411207 403205 395202 388202 384203 384208 390217 
       389220 387222 381227 381233 383235 389241 396247 404251 
       411255 418256 430257 437255 444254 452253 457254 463257 
       469263 474267 478268 482267 485268 491270 494272 501280 
       502277 502269 502261 502255 507254 511253 513251 
  0.25 520191 520185 519181 516175 509165 501155 494148 487137 
       484133 478130 473128 469128 464129 460132 452142 448143 
       442142 438141 436143 434151 435157 437163 443173 442181 
       441188 441192 445197 450197 454193 461185 465181 468178 
       475177 482179 494182 501185 505188 510191 517194 520191 
  0.25 452109 452105 449101 444099 438099 435100 432104 429108 
       428112 427115 429117 432118 435116 440116 446117 449116 
       452113 452109 
  0.25 384744 383739 380735 375733 369733 363736 356740 353745 
       346754 339767 336772 334779 331790 329796 326800 313824 
       309835 303845 298857 294868 290878 287885 286892 286905 
       283919 281929 276942 271952 268957 267963 268968 269969 
       274967 284959 289956 294951 300943 306933 312923 324900 
       329890 332878 349828 358802 364790 371780 376771 381761 
       384753 384744 
  0.50 503238 503234 501226 498217 494213 491211 483208 474209 
       467210 460212 452214 443215 434214 427211 425210 420212 
       412212 404209 396205 391204 387205 388210 390214 395221 
       392225 388227 386231 387235 391239 398245 403249 413252 
       421253 431252 445249 454248 463249 470249 474249 478252 
       486259 493262 495260 496253 495245 493240 490238 486234 
       482232 480227 481224 484223 489228 492234 493239 495242 
       500241 503238 
  0.50 489166 488161 486159 482155 475150 471147 467141 466139 
       463139 453146 449147 442145 439145 436148 435152 438160 
       441165 445171 447179 446187 450188 455183 459177 460166 
       463165 468168 475169 482170 487169 489166 
  0.50 446109 444105 444104 441104 439104 438105 435107 434108 
       434112 435112 438113 441113 444111 446109 
  0.50 376749 372745 367744 362748 359754 355764 350772 343782 
       339794 337798 335801 331802 328805 326810 315829 311838 
       307847 303852 301858 299868 294877 292881 291887 292889 
       293892 293896 290907 289912 289919 287927 283938 281943 
       282948 287946 290943 297936 304927 308919 314911 319901 
       324891 328880 330872 334860 337848 339837 345816 347802 
       349797 353792 361785 367777 372769 375761 376754 376749 
  1.00 465226 468222 469219 465215 458215 440218 432218 428219 
       424222 423225 421229 417229 413227 412222 408221 406225 
       404228 400230 395233 396237 399241 405246 416249 423249 
       438246 454241 457239 458236 455234 452233 451230 465226 
  1.00 473158 470154 465149 462147 459151 456154 450155 449154 
       444153 441151 439153 441157 444162 449166 452167 453163 
       456160 458157 461157 467160 470161 473158 
  1.00 401216 400212 399211 397210 394209 391210 393213 395214 
       396215 399216 401216 
  1.00 338820 336817 331818 328820 325825 321834 321838 323844 
       325857 323861 320863 317864 314863 313858 309856 307860 
       303868 305872 307869 312866 315867 313874 313885 311895 
       311898 313898 316895 321889 325880 327870 329862 332852 
       334842 335832 338820 
  1.50 464221 462219 459218 454218 442220 435220 430221 427224 
       427226 426229 423233 418233 411231 407231 405233 403240 
       408245 411246 416247 423247 433244 443240 445230 450226 
       455224 460224 464221 
  1.50 330834 330830 329830 328831 329834 330834 330834 
  2.00 448225 446223 442222 436223 432224 430225 429230 425234 
       419235 411234 406237 407240 409243 417246 423246 428244 
       430242 432238 434234 438230 444226 448225 
  3.00 425242 424240 422238 419238 416238 413238 412238 413239 
       415241 418243 421243 424243 425242 
  
  
 24HR QP VT 17/12Z
  0.01 524261 524256 521248 519240 516233 510222 508217 506215 
       500209 500205 505205 510207 513210 520220 524232 527237 
       529238 533229 537216 538205 538193 535186 532180 525168 
       519160 515154 512151 509147 503141 486127 476123 472119 
       475111 476108 475103 473099 472091 469084 469076 470065 
       470055 469047 469037 473025 479011 480003 481994 481986 
       481980 484972 484967 479964 478956 478941 477937 473933 
       469933 466935 463941 459971 457983 454996 453003 453011 
       453021 452029 450044 446056 443061 437064 436069 436072 
       438076 445082 447085 446087 443087 440086 436086 433087 
       431087 425085 422087 422092 424095 426100 423102 421108 
       419115 421131 418136 418141 418146 415152 414157 414161 
       419166 415171 413176 415180 418190 419193 417193 413195 
       405198 397196 393194 381189 376191 374196 384215 379218 
       376216 371216 368219 371227 375236 380244 387250 395258 
       399262 405265 417268 428271 433269 437267 447261 455257 
       459257 465259 478265 487274 500287 506292 511293 
  0.01 485196 485191 482187 477187 473187 467188 460190 457193 
       454197 451202 447208 453210 456210 457206 461204 465205 
       468205 471202 475202 478200 481199 484197 485196 
  0.01 415771 413767 410765 404764 387766 384763 384760 385756 
       389749 387745 385743 379740 372739 370732 368730 364728 
       358727 353726 344729 338732 333735 327742 321758 307781 
       304788 302795 299802 294810 290820 284834 278865 275877 
       273892 271907 267923 267931 267939 268943 272944 276942 
       287935 293931 301927 317906 328895 332889 335881 341868 
       346863 352861 365867 381867 394873 399875 404870 406864 
       407857 407854 405830 404821 406814 410807 413798 414791 
       416783 415771 
  0.01 436132 436128 435124 434124 431127 430128 428131 431134 
       434134 436132 
  0.01 427151 427147 427144 424146 423146 423150 424152 427152 
       427151 
  0.25 515277 517270 518262 518256 516249 514242 509232 506224 
       500215 494209 489206 482205 474207 460211 453214 444215 
       437214 429211 423209 415211 408211 400208 394205 391206 
       391210 396216 401220 401226 399227 394228 391230 390232 
       391235 395241 403246 413249 428250 461250 468252 477256 
       489267 501280 504282 507281 514278 515277 
  0.25 525198 525193 523190 520188 518191 520193 522197 525198 
  0.25 487165 488161 486158 482154 467152 461148 456147 451147 
       444146 440143 436144 434149 434155 435160 436165 432166 
       429165 427167 430173 436176 451176 458166 463162 467161 
       471163 478168 482169 487166 487165 
  0.25 456110 457101 456097 453094 450094 444095 439096 435099 
       433104 431108 429116 432117 435116 438116 440117 446121 
       449121 452119 455114 456110 
  0.25 393791 391788 385787 374788 370786 367781 366769 365757 
       362749 358744 354741 348742 343744 338749 331757 325767 
       317784 302821 299831 294841 292845 290850 289859 289870 
       286881 283892 282900 280911 282915 289914 298908 303904 
       317887 322879 327870 331861 333857 337852 341848 344843 
       347834 349824 352818 356815 361812 366812 369814 375813 
       389801 393796 393791 
  0.50 513261 512255 510248 505235 501224 496216 491213 485212 
       479211 475212 470213 466213 457215 438218 434219 430221 
       428223 427227 428231 427235 423235 416234 413232 412230 
       412226 414222 415219 413217 409218 408221 408225 408229 
       405232 402233 398235 400239 404242 409243 418243 424243 
       427242 437246 445246 453245 462245 468245 475247 481251 
       484254 490261 497271 500275 502276 504274 503268 501264 
       497253 491243 487240 484239 481236 477228 472226 471224 
       472221 475218 481219 487222 490227 494236 500246 505258 
       510263 513261 
  0.50 453163 453159 452157 450155 450154 447153 444151 443149 
       441148 439147 438149 436152 437157 438158 440161 440162 
       443165 445166 446167 449168 451167 452166 453163 
  0.50 453101 450099 447099 444100 442100 441101 438104 436108 
       436112 438113 441113 443114 446115 449114 450113 451109 
       452105 453102 453101 
  0.50 359758 357752 354749 350747 345749 340754 334762 324778 
       317793 311809 309815 307826 302841 300849 299859 295876 
       290891 287898 284908 287911 292908 298902 304896 313884 
       318876 321868 325860 329852 338838 341831 344821 347802 
       348794 352787 355779 357771 359758 
  1.00 452222 451221 448220 447220 448222 451222 452222 
  1.00 351762 348760 344762 340764 339767 329781 324795 320803 
       317811 313826 311833 311838 313844 315849 316851 319850 
       323843 328829 334822 335819 336814 338806 339798 342790 
       345784 348775 350766 351762