QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 162034
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 329 PM EST MON FEB 16 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID FEB 17/0000 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
 DAY 1...
 
 ...WRN U.S....
 
 MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LO NOW OFF THE CA
 COAST WILL BE SHEARED EWD WITH TIME BRINGING HGT FALLS..THE ASOCTD
 FRONTAL BAND AND ACCOMPANYING SHWRS TO THE SWRN U.S. THRU THE FCST
 PD.  FOR THE MOST PART..QPFS ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK HERE
 CONCERNING AMTS AND COVERAGE THOUGH DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
 ESPECIALLY OVR NRN CA.  NON-NCEP MODELS WOULD ARGUE FOR LGTR AMTS
 OVR NRN CA THAN NCEP GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT THAT UNREASONABLE GIVEN
 MOST ENRGY IS SHEARED EWD SOUTH OF THAT AREA.  FOR NOW LEANED TWDS
 A BLEND OF THE GEM REGIONAL AND OLD ECMWF IN THAT REGARD. 
 OTHERWISE..THE MODELS SET UP A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE NRN
 PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AS LOW TO MID LVL MSTR CONFLUENCE SETS
 UP BTWN NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS.  NAMS AXIS A LITTLE FARTHER
 SOUTH THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AND LEANED TWDS A
 BLEND OF QPFS ALONG THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NRN AXIS AS PREFERRED BY
 MOST GUIDANCE.
 
 ...ERN HALF OF TX THRU LWR/MID MS VLY...
 
 RETURNING GULF MSTR ALNG WITH SOME WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WL
 SUPPORT SOME LGT SHWRS ACROSS THIS REGION AS WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY
 IN TWO STREAMS OF WLY FLOW PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR THE ACTVTY.
 
 ...EXTREME NRN PLAINS INTO THE EXTREME NRN GT LAKES...
 
 AREA OF HIER MSTR FOCUSING ALONG WEAK FRONT/TROF AND TO THE SOUTH
 OF UPR LOW OVER SRN CANADA WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
 SHWRS ACRS THE REGION.  
  
 DAYS 2 AND 3...
 
 ...WEST...  
 
 TERRAIN-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL WANE ON DAY TWO AS THE FLOW UNDERGOES
 A TRANSITION TO TRANSIENT RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
 TROUGH.  FLEETING MOIST UPSLOPE TO THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL END BY
 LATE DAY TWO...WHILE THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
 INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST GETS SQUEEZED OUT BY OROGRAPHY IN NW FLOW. 
 PRESSURE RISES AND DEPLETED MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME ANY
 DEVELOPMENT BY D3. MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE INCONSEQUENTIAL AND
 SECONDARY TO TERRAIN INFLUENCE.  
   
 ...EAST...
 
 THE MASSIVE TROUGH ENTERING THE EAST ON D2 WILL AFFORD A CHANCE OF
 PRECIP TO VIRTUALLY EVERY POINT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
 48 HOUR PERIOD.  FIRST...A LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A
 SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THESE FEATURES
 WILL SLIDE EAST AND BEGIN STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOWER
 MISS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIP COULD
 AMOUNT TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY.  MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
 WILL TOUCH OFF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
 LAKES.  THE STREAMS WILL PHASE LATE ON DAY 2 DEVELOPING A MASSIVE
 LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL HEAD
 FOR THE GREAT LAKES.  MASS FIELDS WERE SURPRISINGLY CONGRUENT
 AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL SUITES...YET GUIDANCE DIFFERED ON QPF
 PLACEMENT RELATING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION AND
 RESULTANT COMMA HEAD PRECIP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MID
 D3 TAKING THE PRECIP OUT TO SEA.  FARTHER NORTH...THE LOW WILL
 WRAP UP SIGNIFICANTLY...CREATING A HEAVY PRECIP SITUATION TO NRN
 NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE OPERATION MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES...THIS
 FORECAST EMPLOYED SREF MEAN AND GEFS QPF MAXIMA PLACEMENT.  
 
 KORTY/SOWKO
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 18/00Z
  0.01 523865 522856 521853 517846 517843 509831 511817 509805 
       507800 504797 500795 497795 489801 484804 481803 476798 
       470798 464803 459806 453808 448812 446815 445824 445831 
       447839 447843 449847 451855 451863 453869 457878 463889 
       465906 464928 464936 466945 468957 472968 475981 480988 
       482007 486016 488019 492020 496018 499013 500009 500004 
       501999 503991 503987 502973 500954 498936 496920 495905 
       496899 498894 503889 509886 513882 516879 519876 523865 
  0.01 464243 456228 460226 467222 468219 467216 463216 457214 
       451210 445210 441207 441206 446204 447197 449193 452194 
       456186 458182 457174 456171 458165 465162 467159 470151 
       468145 466136 464126 460119 458113 458109 458105 455101 
       454095 451091 444084 441080 441076 444067 441047 441044 
       438040 432036 424032 419030 415031 414034 416043 419053 
       419058 414057 408054 399053 395054 392057 384061 379063 
       373061 370059 365058 355059 347072 343076 338079 333076 
       329077 327079 324087 324089 319091 317094 318098 314102 
       310109 309124 310129 312132 320137 324135 328134 330142 
       327149 323155 317157 313162 312169 314172 321178 327182 
       331186 333190 335197 337205 344216 349224 356230 359233 
       364235 371241 383249 391252 398252 414247 425249 429248 
       432248 464243 
  0.01 430908 430904 430898 426892 423890 418892 408900 400905 
       396907 391908 385907 377904 372901 366898 361897 355896 
       345894 335894 328895 324898 318910 312932 310937 307942 
       300946 296948 292948 289950 283957 282963 281966 278969 
       263969 257972 255976 250983 249987 250991 253997 257001 
       261002 268004 272004 278006 283005 290003 295999 304991 
       314989 321982 324978 328974 332972 333970 336963 339958 
       342955 351950 363943 371940 377937 381936 385938 393943 
       402952 406953 410952 415948 419943 421939 424930 427917 
       430908 
  0.25 447224 445221 444219 443219 440218 439218 436220 433221 
       430223 430224 430228 430232 431235 434234 435233 437233 
       440231 441230 443228 444227 447224 
  0.25 439112 440108 437105 432104 429106 426111 426115 424117 
       422115 417112 409110 405109 400111 398114 398118 402121 
       409122 414126 418126 420126 420130 417134 415137 415141 
       418146 421146 427131 430127 434120 439112 
  0.25 414227 415222 414217 411214 400204 390197 384191 379188 
       372184 365182 359184 358188 361192 364196 366204 357201 
       351197 348193 345187 344184 344178 343172 341167 334165 
       329164 326165 342185 341193 342198 344205 347211 354220 
       360225 367229 391242 398242 402239 406233 411230 414227 
  0.25 409072 409068 407067 404068 399072 395073 392070 390069 
       387072 384076 387079 389083 393087 395089 396087 399083 
       402079 404076 409072 
  0.25 391120 385119 379117 374117 372119 368120 363118 360117 
       354113 349110 347106 339092 335094 330102 328104 326109 
       329113 333115 337120 340130 342133 345136 352138 359137 
       365138 367140 372147 375148 380149 382146 383141 382134 
       385127 388122 391120 
  0.50 410226 412222 412219 407217 400213 394210 391208 389202 
       387197 382193 379190 374187 370185 364185 363189 365191 
       367194 374203 380211 381216 378219 374217 372214 370214 
       366216 359209 351201 347199 346200 350210 357219 360222 
       366224 376228 382231 387234 393233 395226 398220 401220 
       404223 404225 408227 410226 
  0.50 354120 351118 348116 346110 344106 341102 339102 335105 
       333109 335112 340115 343117 348118 348121 346123 348127 
       353124 354120 
  1.00 384200 382196 381195 379194 376191 373189 370189 369190 
       370191 373194 375197 378199 379199 381200 383201 384200  
  
 24HR QP VT 19/00Z
  0.01 494825 490805 486792 480777 475765 469750 466743 463737 
       459732 456729 449723 440716 431713 423710 415709 405709 
       396711 390711 386713 377718 365727 354733 344739 336745 
       329752 322762 317770 315778 312788 308798 301814 299822 
       299833 299855 299868 299872 298879 297888 293897 287913 
       280931 277935 276941 276951 281973 284982 288986 292988 
       298987 301985 308979 316973 324967 332963 340956 348951 
       356946 364938 369932 373928 378925 383922 387922 389924 
       392927 396929 403935 407947 411961 415972 420978 426977 
       429973 434964 436959 438956 440955 444954 445958 447966 
       450970 454973 461972 466970 470966 476972 484982 487982 
       490979 493974 495965 497956 497949 495939 495930 496918 
       498885 498868 497853 495836 494825 
  0.01 489139 488136 485130 478125 472121 472116 473108 471102 
       468098 463098 462093 462087 462083 458073 458066 458063 
       455061 450056 442052 436048 436044 437039 437032 435024 
       432020 429019 420017 417018 414020 412025 412030 411040 
       409045 407046 401048 398051 387059 384061 381066 379069 
       375071 371076 371082 373086 379090 383094 390093 396094 
       400093 401094 401097 400101 397104 384110 381112 377113 
       368116 360117 359119 359124 360134 362138 364141 367147 
       366150 368153 372154 371162 370165 373168 377166 376162 
       379155 382156 387153 388148 387145 388137 390132 392130 
       398130 402131 408129 410127 413128 415132 413145 411156 
       411160 414164 417165 422163 424159 426154 429151 429148 
       427145 427140 430132 434126 437124 442124 449130 447134 
       444137 440138 436139 433143 431147 430151 430155 432159 
       433163 438169 444175 449178 454179 456177 455173 456167 
       458163 463162 471167 478168 482160 482151 474146 477142 
       485141 489139 
  0.01 420241 420236 419233 415227 418216 416213 412211 409207 
       401200 390194 379187 375182 372180 369180 362179 354180 
       350179 346177 345170 342166 337170 335173 333177 332181 
       333189 338199 344209 351218 359225 369233 374236 380240 
       391244 402247 413245 418243 420241 
  0.01 422095 421093 420091 419088 420084 418082 416084 417087 
       418091 415095 414095 415097 416099 418100 420099 421098 
       422095 
  0.01 371208 369204 368204 366202 364200 363199 361198 359199 
       360200 362203 363203 365205 366207 368208 371208 371208 
  0.25 474854 473847 471840 466832 461828 455825 450822 445814 
       441805 441795 442784 440778 436778 431783 426786 413784 
       406784 398787 393788 390787 383785 378783 373779 368771 
       363767 358766 351766 342770 338776 331788 328792 325799 
       323807 323815 318845 312875 306888 303902 301916 302933 
       301945 303949 307951 313947 317942 321937 327934 335931 
       341927 347921 353915 361905 379881 385879 391884 394890 
       398897 402904 408908 415909 423909 429912 433914 437913 
       445911 454905 464896 467892 469887 470878 472864 474854 
  0.25 450109 451103 450100 446097 444096 438097 432100 429104 
       426106 422111 419114 419119 423123 426124 429122 435118 
       440116 445116 449113 450109 
  0.25 448076 447075 445072 444072 443072 444073 446076 447077 
       448076 
  0.25 417072 418068 416064 415063 412062 410061 407061 404062 
       401064 401065 399068 398071 398072 398073 399076 401078 
       404078 407079 410077 412077 414076 415075 417072 
  0.25 399215 399213 399211 397210 394207 393206 391205 389204 
       388205 388207 390209 391211 393213 395214 396215 399216 
       399215 
  0.50 440872 438865 434857 432853 430844 430839 429829 428814 
       428810 425806 421805 415804 410805 398810 389805 384802 
       380801 368803 364802 360799 354799 350800 339805 334809 
       332814 330824 326835 320857 318869 315880 310889 308893 
       307899 307912 307918 307922 309924 316916 319912 322911 
       324912 328914 331915 335915 340913 347909 354902 361894 
       366885 369880 372875 378863 381853 386843 389839 396837 
       401838 404841 408849 410857 413876 420883 427891 430893 
       433894 437891 439887 440880 440872 
  0.50 442109 441106 438107 435107 433108 432109 431112 432113 
       435113 437112 438110 441110 442109 
  1.00 366845 365840 362839 357835 346829 340829 336834 330846 
       327852 325860 323874 322882 321884 322888 327883 331880 
       335879 338881 340879 343874 355866 360860 363854 366845  
  
 24HR QP VT 20/00Z
  0.01 496666 492655 489646 484636 480628 473623 462620 453621 
       444622 435625 429633 417643 406651 396659 387667 369682 
       357692 349700 332718 327723 324727 317735 313742 309750 
       302769 298781 294790 290795 283796 278799 270804 263813 
       261817 262821 267828 270831 271833 267844 265848 265854 
       269862 263879 259896 258900 260904 262907 265910 273910 
       277912 279917 282920 286921 292920 296918 301916 304913 
       316900 330882 336873 344867 357862 365856 370853 375853 
       380855 383857 388867 395880 401890 409896 415901 419904 
       424905 444908 451910 455909 470907 476904 480897 485889 
       489883 492877 491871 490860 489844 487829 486792 484762 
       484755 484749 485741 486735 492710 495697 497691 497686 
       498680 496672 496666 
  0.01 487139 486135 485134 483133 480133 478132 476133 475134 
       473137 474138 477138 480139 483139 486139 487139 
  0.01 456122 457110 456100 454095 450093 441092 434092 431089 
       427089 426093 427096 430100 429104 423104 422107 422109 
       423112 429117 431119 433117 435116 442117 445120 448121 
       455122 456122 
  0.01 450076 447073 447072 444069 441068 439069 436070 434072 
       435076 436076 439076 441075 444075 446076 447080 450076 
  0.01 417068 418064 415060 412057 409054 404053 398056 395058 
       392061 388065 387069 385072 386076 389079 392081 395079 
       401079 407079 410076 413075 415072 417068 
  0.25 480680 478670 475662 471653 467646 461639 457636 452635 
       444637 434642 426647 418654 407662 402664 398667 390675 
       381682 372689 364696 351711 345719 339728 330744 321761 
       314776 307794 303803 300810 291825 288831 286836 287840 
       288847 288852 287862 288868 293870 298869 301868 305870 
       307873 308876 310885 314887 318883 328866 336849 340842 
       343833 349817 354809 358798 360789 364779 366773 371764 
       373761 379757 388754 393753 398754 407758 414764 416766 
       418770 416775 412780 404787 398794 395798 393803 397810 
       398813 396816 397821 404820 407820 411822 418828 424829 
       426828 434821 443816 451811 454799 454789 454783 456778 
       458772 462762 471741 475732 478721 481709 482698 481686 
       480680 
  0.50 468665 463655 457648 451646 444645 439646 435647 432651 
       421667 419674 414678 411679 408677 407674 403675 397676 
       391681 389685 385686 380689 372694 366700 354712 349718 
       345725 340737 337744 333751 329757 325764 322775 317790 
       315797 314801 315805 316809 315813 312816 307820 306823 
       305827 304835 305840 306845 308848 312856 314859 317861 
       321861 324858 328852 331845 335833 339816 340808 339801 
       336790 337783 340777 344773 349766 354758 358753 366747 
       377740 386734 393727 401725 405726 408729 419740 428748 
       434752 442747 444744 446739 448735 446731 442728 447724 
       450722 453723 456724 460721 463714 465707 470697 471691 
       472685 471678 469671 468665 
  1.00 451665 449662 449661 447664 450666 451666 451665 
  1.00 446688 446684 444683 441683 438685 439689 438693 438695 
       437697 435701 433703 433704 433708 432711 432712 433713 
       436713 439712 442710 444708 446704 446702 447699 447697 
       447692 447689 446688 
  1.00 393701 390698 387697 383695 377697 372701 368705 361712 
       355720 351728 350733 351740 355742 360741 366738 370735 
       379727 386718 391711 394705 393701 
  1.50 382704 379702 374705 371707 368712 363716 361719 359723 
       357728 360732 363732 365730 370726 373722 376718 378715 
       381709 382704  
  
 

 
 
 

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