FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOCAL AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS I-75 INTO 
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. A FEW STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE AND SVRTLH ISSUED 
FOR DIXIE COUNTY AROUND 8 PM EDT.   

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON WAS ONE OF QUIETEST THIS MONTH OVER 
LAND. HOWEVER LAST HOUR HAS SEEN AGGRESSIVE E COAST SEA BREEZE 
INTERACTING WITH LINGERING WSW SEA BREEZE AND AIDED BY PROXIMITY OF 
UPPER VORT. LINE OF CONVECTION FROM DIXIE N/NE THRU SUWANNEE... 
COLUMBIA TO NASSAU COUNTIES DEFINE SEA BREEZE. VORT MOVED OVER 
PANHANDLE WATERS DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON GENERATING ACTIVE 
CONVECTION THERE AND AS VORT MOVED EWD TO APALACHEE BAY/SE BIG BEND 
THIS EVENING...CONVECTION SHUNTED E/NE. WITH VORT LINGERING IN 
AREA...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO HOLD TOGETHER AND SPREAD WWD INTO 
NORTHERN BIG BEND AND SCNTRL GA. NEED TO KEEP EYE ON ACTIVITY AS JAX 
ISSUED SVR EARLIER. WILL KEEP SCT POPS ERN THIRD CWFA UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT.    

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL GRADS CONT WEAK AND INHERITED CWF LUKS GOOD. IF 
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER INTO APALACH BAY..MAY NEED TO INSERT WINDS AND 
SEAS STRONGER....

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

BLOCK

_________________________________________________________________
.PREV DISCUSSION...
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004
.SYNOPSIS...A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT LIES N OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER 
NRN GA AND AL. A VORT MAX IS MOVING LITTLE OVER THE PANHANDLE 
COASTAL WATERS AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS 
OUT OVER THE GULF. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE VORT CENTER OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN 
THERE THROUGH WED AND THEN DRIFT S AND DISSIPATE. THIS WILL KEEP 
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS ABOVE NORMAL. OVER 
LAND, MAV POPS LOOK TOO HIGH AS THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED 
TOO MOIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (REGIME 1). MODEL CONSENSUS DOES SHOW 
MOISTURE INCREASING OVER TIME. FOR WED AFTERNOON, THE PW SHOULD 
RECOVER TO BETWEEN 1.85 AND 2 INCHES. WILL BLEND THE FWC AND MET 
POPS FOR WED AND THU, WITH SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY FACTORED IN OVER 
THE FL ZONES. 

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE.
MADE FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS, EXCEPT TO CLEAN 
UP THE POP GRID FOR MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER LOW THE GFS CUTS OFF OVER THE MS VALLEY SHOULD STALL 
W OF HERE AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH MINIMAL LOCAL IMPACT. TEMPS AND 
POPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MENTION WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS THROUGH 
WED. AWAY FROM STORMS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE WEAK. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MESO 
ETA FOR WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TLH 70 91 71 91 / 20 50 30 50
PFN 74 88 74 88 / 20 50 30 50
DHN 71 89 72 89 / 30 60 40 50
ABY 71 90 72 90 / 30 60 40 50
VLD 70 91 71 92 / 20 50 30 50
CTY 71 90 71 90 / 20 50 30 50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

$$

WOOL/18