AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 205 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND MILD AUTUMN WEATHER. RUC MODEL ANALYZED AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER SRN ID TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS WESTERN CO LATER TONIGHT AND TUE IN NWLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER...SO ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH IT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO FIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE TOWARDS MIDWEEK. THE CENTER TRACKS ACROSS WY ON WED...BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO WED AFTERNOON. AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES FOR TUE...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR THE N AND MTNS ON WED. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS AT NIGHT. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS WY ON WED/WED NIGHT. VERY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY... MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BETWEEN RUNS/MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON JUST HOW THIS WILL HAPPEN. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW...WITH TEMPS DROPPING OFF A FEW DEGREES AND CLOUDS INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST DOES INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. BUT THIS FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. && .GJT WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... .CO...NONE. .UT...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM.....JAD LONG TERM......EH AVIATION.......JAD co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 923 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .DISCUSSION... THE 13 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR JANUARY. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FORECASTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR OUR NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SITES...WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RUC FORECAST WINDS INDICATE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...SO WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 03 UTC. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY...WE EXPECT THE FREQUENCY OF WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BE AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR... WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE... FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON... JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ AVIATION...GIBBS REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 200 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 ...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR/RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE PVA/LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND, RESULTING IN INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. VERY DRY AIR IS OVERTAKING THE GULF COAST AND SRN ATLANTIC STATES. REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECT THIS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 0.25 INCH. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE PLAINS AND A DEEP LOW CENTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS FUNNELING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION ON NWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. OVER THE MARINE AREA, SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KTS AND GUSTY. SKIES ARE CLEAR REGIONWIDE, WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE MERCURY FROM REACHING THE FREEZING MARK, WITH LOWS BY DAYBREAK FROM THE MID 30S COOLEST LOCALES TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST. BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR TODAY... TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962 APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997 HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968 && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD. TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE AUTUMN SEASON AND WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES. IN FACT, THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR TALLAHASSEE TODAY IS 53 DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL SOMEWHAT BRISK WITH NWLY WINDS 10-15 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN FL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 34 INLAND AND 35 TO 41 ALONG THE COAST. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS A T/TD SPREAD AROUND 5 DEG F AT 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH LESS THAN 2 KNOTS OF WIND. WITH THIS IN MIND, IF WINDS DO BECOME CALM, TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING IN THE FORECAST, WILL LEAVE THE INHERITED FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES IN OUR CWA IN EFFECT, AND LEAVE THE WARNING DECISION TO THE NEXT SHIFT. URBAN AREAS, LIKE DOTHAN, ALBANY, VALDOSTA AND TALLAHASSEE WILL NOT REACH FREEZING. LOCAL STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DOWNTOWN TALLAHASSEE MAY ONLY REACH AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHILE AREAS INSIDE THE CITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. RURAL AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE PATCHY FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HERE ARE SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL STATISTICS REGARDING FREEZES AND RECORD LOW TEMPS... WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH) TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987 APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001 HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987 ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993 APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989 HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989 AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE PERIOD OF RECORD TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH 1948 TO PRESENT TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH 1885 TO 1961 APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH 1975 TO PRESENT PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH 1972 TO PRESENT HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH 1950 TO PRESENT ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH 1902 TO PRESENT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NE OF THE CWA, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO AN ELY DIRECTION. IT WILL STILL BE COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO LATE OCT NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE WILL CERTAINLY DECREASE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY SETTING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE E/NE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A VERY SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OR COOLING WITH THIS SYSTEM, JUST REINFORCING THE STATUS QUO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ELY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PUSH SOME SHOWERS INTO THE ERN CWA FROM THE ATLANTIC. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BE AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT. && .MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE WATERS YESTERDAY. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THE GRADIENT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE. A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. && .FIRE WEATHER...WIND AND KBDI CRITERIA SHOULD KEEP AL/GA ZONES FROM REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW RH DURATIONS WILL BE MORE THAN LONG ENOUGH FOR FLORIDA. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER WINDS, SO WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR ALL FL ZONES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 60 31 64 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 61 38 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 59 33 64 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 59 33 64 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 59 33 64 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 63 31 67 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...AND HOUSTON. GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND WORTH. FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY... CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY. && $$ JAMSKI/CAMP fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 830 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 ...NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT... ...FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING... .SYNOPSIS... AT 8 PM EDT...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATED THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS RANGED FROM LOW 50S/MID-UPPER 20S SE ALA/SW GA...TO MID 50S/MID 30S SE BIG BEND. 24 TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER LOCAL AIRMASS SINCE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AIRMASS RUNNING FROM 2 DEGREES COOLER SE BIG BEND UP TO 12 DEGREES COOLER SE ALA/WRN BIG BEND...AND RUNNING AROUND 20 DEGREES DRIER ACROSS LOCAL AREA. WINDS WERE GENERALLY N/NW AROUND 10 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS... H5 RUC ANALYSIS AND VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DEEP TROF BEING CARVED OUT FROM E/CNTRL CANADA THRU E/CNTRL GULF COAST. STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING SWD FROM LWR OH RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP DEEPEN TROUGH AND EJECT IT ESE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS B4 IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOCALLY THIS TRANSLATES TO A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -4C TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS FOR LATE OCTOBER. BY TUES AFTN...TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EWD INTO ADJACENT WRN ATLC. AT LOWER LEVELS... AT 8 PM EDT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT FROM FLAGLER COUNTY SWWD THRU HERNANDO COUNTY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEX RACING SEWD. IT WAS CLEARLY IDENTIFIED BY AIRMASS CONTRASTS (TEMPS/DEW POINTS MID 70/MID 50S JUST AHEAD OF...AND MID 60S/MID 40S JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY. IN ITS WAKE...VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (1037MB) OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD LA EARLY TUESDAY AND TO OVER THE NE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW-SE AS NOTED ABOVE AS REFLECTED IN REGIONAL OBS WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO 20S ACROSS SE ALA. BONE DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED IN 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS I.E. TAE AND FFC (ATL) WITH 0.24 INCH PWAT EACH AND BMX 0.28 INCH PWAT. LATEST OBS SHOW THAT AS FRONT EXITS FURTHER AWAY...AND DIURNAL HEATING ENDS...WIND GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY). THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS. REST OF TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THE ABOVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW 5 KNOTS AND REALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO NOTICEABLY DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY RUN GFE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND ONLY THEN IN THE WESTERN CWA SO NO NEED FOR FREEZE WARNING. WITH THE HIGH T/TD SPREADS ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 8 DEG F/ TONIGHT AND SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR PLUS SURFACE WINDS GREATER THAN 5 KNOTS (AND KEEP LOWEST LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED) COMBINED WITH LOCAL BREEZES...DO NOT EXPECT FROST TO DEVELOP...EVEN IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. NEVERTHELESS...ALL RESIDENTS THAT HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION ARE URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE BROUGHT INSIDE IF POSSIBLE TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD. INLAND WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER AROUND 30 DEGREES. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE ENE AS ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL BY AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NWD AND LOCAL GRADIENTS RELAX. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR AS SOME SITES STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES. WITH 10 TO 15 MPH OF WIND AS WELL...IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY CHILLY FOR LATE OCTOBER. (SEE NPWTAE AND/OR PREVIOUS AFD FOR TUES NIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS AND WARNING). && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON TUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12 KT AND GUSTS FREQUENTLY REACHING 20 KT ONCE AGAIN. && .MARINE...AT 8 PM EDT...OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY NW 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX. WE DO EXPECT THAT A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE A PROLONGED CAUTIONARY AND EVEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY EVENT BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN OUR TYPICALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. && .FIRE WEATHER...LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUE...A WARNING IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR FL ZONES AND WILL BE CONTINUED. UP IN GA...WE BELIEVE THAT GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING EVEN THOUGH RH WILL BE MORE THAN LOW ENOUGH. SE AL REMAINS A CONUNDRUM. WIND AND RH CRITERIA WILL EASILY MEET RED FLAG REQUIREMENTS. HOWEVER, THE KBDI IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 500. AFTER A FULL DAY OF DRYING ON SUN THE KBDI JUMPED ONLY 10 POINTS (FROM 404 TO 414) AT DHN. WHILE A BIGGER JUMP MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WILL DEFER AN WARNING DECISION TO THE MID SHIFT AFTER THEY GET A LOOK AT THE UPDATED KBDI NUMBERS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FL EACH DAY THROUGH THU. && .CLIMATOLOGY...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE OCTOBER. NORMAL LOWS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER ARE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND. AT OUR INLAND SITES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 36 DEGREES OR COLDER ON THE LAST THREE DAYS OF OCTOBER IS AROUND 35 PERCENT. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY DECREASES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 32 DEGREES OR COLDER FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT AT OUR INLAND SITES AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THE COAST. THUS...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WE WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AT SOME SITES. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED SITES AROUND OUR REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE COMPLETE AT SITES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. CONFIDENCE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS AT THE OTHER SITES ARE LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO SHORTER PERIODS OF RECORDS. TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH) TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962 APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997 HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968 WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH) TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987 APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001 HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987 ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993 APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989 HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989 AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE PERIOD OF RECORD TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH 1948 TO PRESENT TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH 1885 TO 1961 APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH 1975 TO PRESENT PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH 1972 TO PRESENT HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH 1950 TO PRESENT ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH 1902 TO PRESENT && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY... HOUSTON. GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN... BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR... DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE... LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH... SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...DIXIE...GADSDEN... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DESTIN TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. && $$ AVIATION...BARRY PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOCK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 926 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION...11 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC TO PEACHTREE CITY TO NEAR DOTHAN AND PENSACOLA. VERY TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS ANALYZED RIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS WELL AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES THANKS TO A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. OBSERVATIONS SITES RIGHT AT SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ALREADY SHOWING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 12 UTC UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT KTAE WAS CONDUCTED PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION IS PRESENT WITH A MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE AS WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS JUST 900 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SOME SUBTLE MOISTENING IS NOTED ON THE SOUNDING AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEPENING TROF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THIS STEEPENING TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HELP COOLER AIR FUNNEL DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. WILL BE MONITORING THE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...BUT ABSENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE...EXPECT TO BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE...WINDS BEGINNING TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DESTIN IS ALREADY GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS...AND EXPECT THESE HIGH WINDS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO DECREASE THESE WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FLORIDA CRITERIA WILL EASILY BE MET WITH RH LESS THAN 35 PERCENT AND HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS. GEORGIA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS 30 PERCENT RH LOOKS EASILY WITHIN REACH THERE...HOWEVER THE SUSTAINED 20 MPH WIND MAY PROVE ELUSIVE. IN ALABAMA...ALL CRITERIA...EXCEPT FOR THE KBDI WILL BE MET. THE KBDI IN ALL FIVE COUNTIES WE SERVICE IS BETWEEN 375 AND 425...WELL BELOW THE NECESSARY 500 REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. && .CLIMATOLOGY...LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE OCTOBER. NORMAL LOWS FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER ARE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND. AT OUR INLAND SITES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 36 DEGREES OR COLDER ON THE LAST THREE DAYS OF OCTOBER IS AROUND 35 PERCENT. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY DECREASES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF REACHING 32 DEGREES OR COLDER FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT AT OUR INLAND SITES AND LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THE COAST. THUS...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WE WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AT SOME SITES. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED SITES AROUND OUR REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE COMPLETE AT SITES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. CONFIDENCE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS AT THE OTHER SITES ARE LESS CONFIDENT DUE TO SHORTER PERIODS OF RECORDS. TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH) TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962 APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997 HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968 WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH) TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987 APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001 HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987 ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993 APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....33 SET IN 1989 HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989 AVERAGE FALL FIRST FREEZE PERIOD OF RECORD TALLAHASSEE (AIRPORT).........NOVEMBER 19TH 1948 TO PRESENT TALLAHASSEE (DOWNTOWN)........DECEMBER 6TH 1885 TO 1961 APALACHICOLA..................DECEMBER 14TH 1975 TO PRESENT PANAMA CITY 5N................DECEMBER 10TH 1972 TO PRESENT HEADLAND AL...................NOVEMBER 13TH 1950 TO PRESENT ALBANY 3SE....................NOVEMBER 19TH 1902 TO PRESENT && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE... GENEVA...HENRY...AND HOUSTON. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL... BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK... DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER... LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH... SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND WORTH. FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON... TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY... CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. $$ GODSEY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 240 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 ...GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY... ...NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS... .SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WV THROUGH ERN TN, NRN AL, CNTRL MS TO ERN TX. STRONG NWLY WINDS, COLDER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WERE SURGING SEWD BEHIND THE FRONT, PRECEDED BY A BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SURGE QUICKLY SEWD TODAY, WITH ITS AXIS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO FL BY TUESDAY MORNING. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY, WITH THE 540 DM CONTOUR AS FAR S AS SRN GA AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE TROUGH EXITS THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PLAINS RIDGE APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FOCUS ON THE LOW TEMP FORECAST. THE NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN THEIR CONSISTENCY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NWLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ABRUPTLY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AS A 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION, IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER OUR EXTREME NWRN ZONES, WITH MID 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WITH WINDS UP AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRY AIR MASS, DO NOT EXPECT FROST FORMATION. ON TUESDAY, COMPARED TO THE MILD TEMPS WE`VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS, IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES. NWLY WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, BUT REMAIN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY. THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES OUR WRN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL TREND TOWARD LOWER-MID 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WATCHES, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AS T/TD SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM. AFTER A CHILLY START TO WEDNESDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL NOT RISE MUCH FROM TUESDAY`S HIGHS, WITH THE MERCURY REMAINING IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. BELOW ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR SELECTED SITES AROUND OUR REGION. NOTE THAT THE PERIOD OF RECORD IS MORE COMPLETE AT SITES LIKE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA. TUESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 28TH) TALLAHASSEE...................35 SET IN 1962 APALACHICOLA..................39 SET IN 2001 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....34 SET IN 1997 HEADLAND AL...................30 SET IN 1957 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......29 SET IN 1968 WEDNESDAY MORNING (OCTOBER 29TH) TALLAHASSEE...................31 SET IN 1987 APALACHICOLA..................41 SET IN 1976 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE)....36 SET IN 2001 HEADLAND AL...................32 SET IN 1952 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......30 SET IN 1987 ALL TIME RECORD LOWS FOR OCTOBER TALLAHASSEE...................30 SET IN 1973...1989 AND 1993 APALACHICOLA..................33 SET IN 1993 PANAMA CITY 5N (COOP SITE.....33 SET IN 1989 HEADLAND AL...................26 SET IN 2001 ALBANY 3 SE (COOP SITE).......28 SET IN 1989 && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MEAN TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH VERY LOW POPS. && .AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME SCT CLOUDS AT 3500 FT FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE, SKC WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL MARINE LEGS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR MASS TO BE IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. FL ZONES APPEAR TO BE SURE BETS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CURRENT KBDI VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH ACROSS SE AL TO PRECLUDE RED FLAG CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST WINDS OVER SOUTH GA ARE LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CRITERIA THERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, IF CONDITIONS ARE WINDIER THAN ANTICIPATED, RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH GA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 69 34 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 PANAMA CITY 70 41 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 DOTHAN 67 36 60 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALBANY 67 36 60 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 VALDOSTA 68 35 60 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 CROSS CITY 75 35 63 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE... GENEVA...HENRY...AND HOUSTON. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL... BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK... DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER... LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH... SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...AND WORTH. FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON... TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY... CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...AND WASHINGTON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. $$ JAMSKI/CAMP fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 628 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. MODEL TIME SECS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING BKN VFR DECK ACRS IND TODAY WITH ONLY SCT CU ELSEWHERE. RUC SOUNDING HAD BOUNDARY LYR WINDS OF LK MI SHIFTING TO A NW DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS E OF THE TAF SITES. LATER TNGT AS TIME SECS WERE SHOWING THINNING 850 MB MOISTURE...MODEL TIME SECS AND 700 MB RH PROGS FAVOR BRINGING BRINGING SOME AC IN THAT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GFS 90% 700 MB RH ACRS NWRN MN AND MANITOBA. NW WINDS WL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING OCCURS. THEN...WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE W AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNGT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF MD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING NEARLY DUE S OFF THE ERN SHORE. IR SAT PIC SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER ACRS THE FA BUT CLR SKIES IN IL. TEMPS WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 AND NWLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS. FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/CLD CVR TODAY AND TEMPS THRU WED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATRN SO A BLEND WAS USED. FOR TEMPS/POPS GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR SO A MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED EXCEPT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS NOTED BELOW. TODAY...WITH FLOW OFF THE LAKE EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVR MUCH OF THE FA AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE N. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NIL BUT THINK A SLT CHC IN THE N THRU 18Z IS WARRANTED BASED ON CURRENT OBS...FCST H8 WINDS AND NAM12 PRECIP FCST. BASED ON H8 TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE LAKE ESP IN THE NE HALF OF THE FA WL KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY. THIS IS COLDER THAN EITHER GUIDANCE...BUT GIVE ABOVE INFO AND CONTINUED COOL NW FLOW SEE NO REASON WHY TODAY SHUD BE WARMER. TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD BE CLEARING OUT BUT NOT NECESSARILY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PD ESP IN THE NE. WINDS WILL DROP SOME...ALTHOUGH THEY WON/T GO CALM WITH A PRES GRADIENT STILL ACRS INDIANA WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE SW. WITH WIND NOT GOING CALM WL STILL SEE A LITTLE MIXING SO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WL BE GOOD BUT NOT IDEAL. H8 WARM ADVECTION WL START UP BY 6Z. GUIDANCE HAS WARMED TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THINK THE NORMAL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD BE MAKING GUIDANCE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THIS CIRCUMSTANCE. WITH OLD GUIDANCE POSSIBLY TOO COOL GIVEN WAA AT H8 AND SFC WINDS...WL USE NAM12 SFC TEMPS WHICH SEEM TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND YIELDS LOWS FROM 29 TO 33. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUT WHERE THE LOWS WL END UP AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES WL KEEP THE FREEZE WATCH GOING. WED ON...WL SEE A WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BLDING IN AND MOVING E...AND H8 WAA. BIG H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE MIDWEST AND KEEPS THE WX WARMER THAN SEASONAL AND DRY THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TODAY FOR INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && $$ AVIATION...MK PUBLIC...CP in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .UPDATE... TEMPERATURES ARE JUST NOT RESPONDING ALL THAT FAST EVEN THOUGH BETTER MIXING IS NOW TAKING PLACE...EVIDENT BY THE INCREASING WINDS. AT BEST THERE ARE THREE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. ADDITIONALLY...WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER AS WELL. ...08... /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/ .SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW DOMINATES NOAM EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE... RIDGE WAS PUMPING UP ACROSS THE WEST BENEATH POLAR JET...WHICH HAS UNDERGONE NORTHWARD SHIFT AND AMPLIFICATION WELL INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC... LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TX/LA GULF COAST. SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL... BUT INCOMING SUBSIDENCE FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CHEWING AWAY AT WESTERN EDGE AND ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATION AS THE CLOUDS TRY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. AS A RESULT... TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS... WITH FEW DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE L20S NORTH. THUS... WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE ENDING THE GROWING SEASON. ..MCCLURE.. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... FAIRLY BENIGN WX IN SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER... DRYING WITH DEEPER MIXING TO NEAR H85 AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE STRATOCU EARLY THIS AFTN. MIX DOWN TOOL FROM H85 SUPPORTS MAXES RANGING FROM MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTN WITH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 15-20 KTS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER. 06Z NAM/GFS/RUC REMAIN PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING 700 MB RH. EARLIER THINKING THIS WAS OVERDONE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT STARTING TO NOW SEE AC AND CIRRUS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST MN... AND LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF. THUS... GOING SUNNY FCST COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND COULD END UP PTSUNNY FOR A PERIOD. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT H925 WHILE SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 5 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS MOST LOCALES FROM THOSE OF THIS MORNING. HAVE BUMPED MINS UP A COUPLE 2-3 DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST... BUT GENERALLY STAYED AT OR JUST BELOW THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND SOME CONCERNS WINDS COULD DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. ..MCCLURE.. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... OVERVIEW...THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LUCKILY THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED UP IN CANADA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUT DOWN SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SPEAKING OF THURSDAY...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. NICE DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND 70. GUIDANCE USUALLY TOO COOL IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS TIME OF YEAR TO HAVE A DRAMATIC WARMUP YOU NEED A DECENT WIND TO TRANSPORT THE WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST...THE SUN ANGLE JUST ISNT ENOUGH TO DO IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS SO SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. SO ITS A TRADE-OFF...YOU HAVE THE WARMER AIR BUT THE BRISK WIND MAKES IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER. AMAZINGLY...SIMILAR WARM TEMPERATURES WERE EXPERIENCED A YEAR AGO ON OCTOBER 30. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH IN CANADA. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. BUT THIS TIME THE GULF WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AHEAD OF A STRONGER NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH THAT WILL BE HEADED FOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS THE GFS HINTS AT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN RAIN 24 HOURS LATER. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE THIS SITUATION AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY. ..HAASE.. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEPER MIXING AND DRYING... AND INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE SOME AC AND CIRRUS DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 15 TO 20 KTS OF WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED ABOVE 10 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS AT TIMES. WINDS DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY... THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE...MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCID AND KDBQ. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ MCCLURE/HAASE ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 438 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW DOMINATES NOAM EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE... RIDGE WAS PUMPING UP ACROSS THE WEST BENEATH POLAR JET... WHICH HAS UNDERGONE NORTHWARD SHIFT AND AMPLIFICATION WELL INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC... LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TX/LA GULF COAST. SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI INTO NORTHERN IL... BUT INCOMING SUBSIDENCE FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CHEWING AWAY AT WESTERN EDGE AND ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATION AS THE CLOUDS TRY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROVIDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. AS A RESULT... TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGS... WITH FEW DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE L20S NORTH. THUS... WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE ENDING THE GROWING SEASON. ..MCCLURE.. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... FAIRLY BENIGN WX IN SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME STRATOCU BY LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER... DRYING WITH DEEPER MIXING TO NEAR H85 AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE STRATOCU EARLY THIS AFTN. MIX DOWN TOOL FROM H85 SUPPORTS MAXES RANGING FROM MID 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTN WITH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING 15-20 KTS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER. 06Z NAM/GFS/RUC REMAIN PRETTY AGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING 700 MB RH. EARLIER THINKING THIS WAS OVERDONE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT STARTING TO NOW SEE AC AND CIRRUS OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST MN... AND LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TODAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF. THUS... GOING SUNNY FCST COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AND COULD END UP PTSUNNY FOR A PERIOD. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT H925 WHILE SFC WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 5 KTS... VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER MINS MOST LOCALES FROM THOSE OF THIS MORNING. HAVE BUMPED MINS UP A COUPLE 2-3 DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST... BUT GENERALLY STAYED AT OR JUST BELOW THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND SOME CONCERNS WINDS COULD DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY. ..MCCLURE.. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... OVERVIEW...THIS PERIOD HIGHLIGHTED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LUCKILY THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL BE LOCKED UP IN CANADA UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUT DOWN SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SPEAKING OF THURSDAY... THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. NICE DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND 70. GUIDANCE USUALLY TOO COOL IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS TIME OF YEAR TO HAVE A DRAMATIC WARMUP YOU NEED A DECENT WIND TO TRANSPORT THE WARM AIR INTO THE MIDWEST...THE SUN ANGLE JUST ISNT ENOUGH TO DO IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE 850 MB SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS SO SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY. SO ITS A TRADE-OFF...YOU HAVE THE WARMER AIR BUT THE BRISK WIND MAKES IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER. AMAZINGLY... SIMILAR WARM TEMPERATURES WERE EXPERIENCED A YEAR AGO ON OCTOBER 30. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR... WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR STAYING WELL NORTH IN CANADA. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. BUT THIS TIME THE GULF WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AHEAD OF A STRONGER NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH THAT WILL BE HEADED FOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER TIMING ISSUES NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS THE GFS HINTS AT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IN RAIN 24 HOURS LATER. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RESOLVE THIS SITUATION AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY. ..HAASE.. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DEEPER MIXING AND DRYING... AND INCOMING SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE SOME AC AND CIRRUS DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 15 TO 20 KTS OF WIND AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED ABOVE 10 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS AT TIMES. WINDS DROP OFF TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF WEAK BOUNDARY... THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE... MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCID AND KDBQ. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON- DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE- LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON. IL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL- HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER- PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND. && $$ MCCLURE/HAASE ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1215 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .UPDATE... MINOR REVISIONS TO FIRST PERIOD /TODAY/ FORECAST...18Z MONDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE AND PERTINENT FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... ALL OF THE INITIAL /AVAILABLE/ NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD BY AT LEAST 20-40 DM THIS MORNING...BEING A LITTLE TOO FAR NEWD WITH THE HEIGHT FIELDS COMPARED TO HAND-DRAWN 12Z MONDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THE 13KM RUC AND 12KM NAM WERE THE CLOSEST TO BEING REPRESENTATIVE WITH MOISTURE/MASS/WIND FIELDS THIS MORNING...SO WERE USED FOR FIRST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS IN WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. THE DEWPOINT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UTILIZED THE 12KM NAM...MIXED FROM 800 MB TO THE SURFACE AT 18Z...THEN 825 MB AT 21Z...THEN 950 MB FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMED TO BLEND WELL WITH NWS OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION... PLAN TO KEEP A MENTION OF BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST DIURNAL /AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/ MENTION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS AT THE KCGI AND KPAH TAF SITES...WITH THIS CLOUD DECK PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 06-07Z TUESDAY OVER THE KEVV AND KOWB TAF SITES. MOST OF THE CEILINGS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 4-6KFT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WITH SOME DECOUPLING /LOWERING/ OF WINDS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A POPLAR BLUFF/VAN BUREN MO LINE WILL TETTER CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON /BETWEEN 17-21Z TODAY/. TEN HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALREADY AT 8 PERCENT AND HOURLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WITHIN 1-3 PERCENT OF CRITICAL VALUES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE 15 MPH THRESHOLD...BUT LOCAL WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED THIS WIND THRESHOLD PERIODICALLY. THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EASTWARD SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DRYING DUE TO INSOLATION...WITH THE MAIN DRYING DUE TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. THEREFORE...ANY WILDFIRE CONCERN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MARGINALIZED AT THIS POINT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. BIG ISSUE IS THAT THE COLD SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COULD BE LOTS OF STRATUS CLOUDS TODAY/TONIGHT IN OUR EAST/NE AREAS AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY DIVE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEP NW FLOW REGIME BEHIND THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THAT SAID...LOOKS LIKE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...CLOSEST TO THE SFC HIGH. WILL UPGRADE AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A POPLAR BLUFF MO TO CARBONDALE IL TO CARMI IL LINE TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. WILL LEAVE WATCH POSTED ALL OTHER AREAS...AND LET DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK. REALLY THINK CLOUDS AND/OR WIND WILL BE AN ISSUE THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO...AND MAY SERVE TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE 32 FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING (IE. LIGHTEST WINDS) MAY WELL BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF AN ISSUE...ESP LATER TUE NIGHT. WILL HOIST A WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE LATER. FROST MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TUE NIGHT...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE THE LIGHTEST. OTHER THAN THE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. WILL SHADE TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY...ESP EAST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. MODELS HAVE NO CLUE AS TO THE LOW DEW POINTS IN THE AREA...SO WILL GO WELL BELOW MOS NUMBERS THERE AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RIVER TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS TEMPS TUE...AS 20 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP WED/THU AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. AVIATION... SFC HIGH TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THINGS BREEZY TODAY. WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS MINIMAL THROUGH 15Z AND BRING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM 15Z TODAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. WILL HAVE VFR CIGS FOR KEVV AND KOWB ALMOST THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE KCGI AND KPAH WITHOUT A CIG THROUGH 15Z...THEN INTRODUCE A VFR CIG...AFTER SEEING SATELLITE TRENDS. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY. MOISTURE THINS OUT CLOSE TO 12Z TUESDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO INDICATE THIS BY ADDING A TEMPO GROUP AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN- DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON- LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN- DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON- LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER. MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOLLINGER- BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD- WAYNE MO. IL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GALLATIN-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI- SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALEXANDER- EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WILLIAMSON. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM....DH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1032 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... LATEST UA ANALYSIS INDICATING INTENSE UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH INTENSE COOLING IS CAUSING THE COLUMN TO UNDERGO RAPID DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR ALONG WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING TOPS COOLING ALOFT. DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ACT ON THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT TO TRANSFER SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO... THUS THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COMBINATION OF IMPACT AND DAMAGE INCURRING FROM STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRID DATABASE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. OTHER PARAMETERS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.... MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND REVERSE TIDAL EFFECTS ON THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTH TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE. THE NAM12/CARWWRF ON TARGET W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS ESP W/THE WARM SURGE THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESP THE EASTERN 1/2. DECIDED ON THE CARWRF/S TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN FOLLOWED W/THE GMOS AFT 06Z WHICH DOES ALIGN W/THE NAM & CARWRF. 1ST SURGE OF STG WINDS TO MAKE THEIR INTO THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR W/THE COLD FRONT. THESE STG WINDS WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THREE THINGS WORTH MENTIONING HERE ARE...1) SSE WINDS ALIGNING THROUGH 7K FT AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT FROM 25 KTS IN THE BLYR TO 55 KTS THROUGH 5K FT ESP FROM 03Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. 2) MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 45-60 KTS DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE WINDS VEER MORE S IN TIME. 3) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER TONIGHT FROM 5.5-6.0 C/KM TO 6.5 C/KM OR SO RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND THEN PULL OUT AS CAA TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE COLUMN. THINKING HERE IS THAT GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE IN ORDER W/A MODERATE IMPACT. RADAR IMAGERY HAD RAIN MOVING INTO SWRN ME AND ANOTHER AREA PULLING WNW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE NAM AND RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE THROUGH THE EVENING W/ADJUSTMENTS AFT 06Z TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AS THAT MAIN AREA RAIN LIFT NORTH. ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ALLOWING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...WE DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/LATER GUIDANCE. LAST THING IS THE CONCERN FOR REVERSE TIDAL SURGE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING ESP AROUND THE TIME HIGH TIDE. USING THE LOCAL NOMOGRAM YIELD A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AND THIS ADDED TO THE HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SEAS AND SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ISSUES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY. FURTHER EAST DOWN SLOPING WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR A BIT LEAVING ONLY CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES. BY THURSDAY THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MILDER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE NAM12 LOOKED TO BE SUPPORTING LATEST CONDITIONS OUT THERE. WINDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP TO 10-15 KT AS MIDNIGHT CREW STATED. SURGE OF STG WINDS WILL COME AFT 00Z REACHING 30-35 KTS. SEAS 5 FT OR SO OUT THERE ATTM. WNAWAVE RUNNING A FOOT OR 2 TOO HIGH. STARTED THINGS OUT A FOOT BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND THEN USED THE PREV FCSTD WAVE HEIGHTS W/A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON TIMING TO BACK THEM UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO PER THE LAST 3 HRLY TRENDS. SHORT TERM: THE GALE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOLLOWING THE GALE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR SEAS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HEWITT/BLOOMER me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 415 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND NORTH INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND REVERSE TIDAL EFFECTS ON THE COAST. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTH TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE. THE NAM12/CARWWRF ON TARGET W/THE LATEST CONDITIONS ESP W/THE WARM SURGE THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ESP THE EASTERN 1/2. DECIDED ON THE CARWRF/S TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN FOLLOWED W/THE GMOS AFT 06Z WHICH DOES ALIGN W/THE NAM & CARWRF. 1ST SURGE OF STG WINDS TO MAKE THEIR INTO THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR W/THE COLD FRONT. THESE STG WINDS WILL THEN TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. THREE THINGS WORTH MENTIONING HERE ARE...1) SSE WINDS ALIGNING THROUGH 7K FT AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT FROM 25 KTS IN THE BLYR TO 55 KTS THROUGH 5K FT ESP FROM 03Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. 2) MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 45-60 KTS DROPPING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME AS THE WINDS VEER MORE S IN TIME. 3) 700-500MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER TONIGHT FROM 5.5-6.0 C/KM TO 6.5 C/KM OR SO RIGHT AROUND 06Z AND THEN PULL OUT AS CAA TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE COLUMN. THINKING HERE IS THAT GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE IN ORDER W/A MODERATE IMPACT. RADAR IMAGERY HAD RAIN MOVING INTO SWRN ME AND ANOTHER AREA PULLING WNW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE NAM AND RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE. DECIDED ON THIS ROUTE THROUGH THE EVENING W/ADJUSTMENTS AFT 06Z TO GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AS THAT MAIN AREA RAIN LIFT NORTH. ELEVATED CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG ALLOWING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LEADING TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ATTM...WE DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/LATER GUIDANCE. LAST THING IS THE CONCERN FOR REVERSE TIDAL SURGE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING ESP AROUND THE TIME HIGH TIDE. USING THE LOCAL NOMOGRAM YIELD A 1.5 FOOT SURGE AND THIS ADDED TO THE HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WOULD KEEP THINGS BELOW ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...INCREASING SEAS AND SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR ISSUES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY. FURTHER EAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR A BIT LEAVING ONLY CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES. BY THURSDAY THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MILDER AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FORECAST STRONG WINDS...FUNNELING UP COASTAL RIVER BASINS NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM 8:00 PM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH THE APEX OF THE TIDE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE NAM12 LOOKED TO BE SUPPORTING LATEST CONDITIONS OUT THERE. WINDS ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP TO 10-15 KT AS MIDNIGHT CREW STATED. SURGE OF STG WINDS WILL COME AFT 00Z REACHING 30-35 KTS. SEAS 5 FT OR SO OUT THERE ATTM. WNAWAVE RUNNING A FOOT OR 2 TOO HIGH. STARTED THINGS OUT A FOOT BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND THEN USED THE PREV FCSTD WAVE HEIGHTS W/A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT ON TIMING TO BACK THEM UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO PER THE LAST 3 HRLY TRENDS. SHORT TERM: THE GALE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOLLOWING THE GALE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR SEAS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...HEWITT MARINE...HEWITT/BLOOMER HYDROLOGY...TURNER me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 532 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... WNDS NOT QUITE TO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTRN...SO DECIDED TO REPLACE HIGH WIND WRNG WITH A WND ADVSRY ACROSS THE ERN SHORE AREAS THRU EVE HRS. ALSO DROPPED MENTION OF ANY MORE RAIN AS LTST RADAR TRENDS SHOW PCPN HAS MOVED N AND E OF RGN. NO OTHR CHANGES FOR NOW. WILL CONT TO MONITOR WND GUSTS NXT FEW HRS TO SEE IF WND ADVSRY CAN BE DROPPED B4 MIDNITE. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CLEAR (EXCEPT ERN SHORE) ENOUGH OF AWIND GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST (MORE ISOLATED THAN WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED IN TIMEFRAME OF IT TO OCCUR/PREVAIL). THEREFORE WILL KEEP WRDG OUT OF ZONES. MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S (WARMEST ALONG THE COAST). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF...EXCEPT ERN SHORE WHERE P/C SKIES WILL CONTINUE. CU FIELD REDEVELOPS LATE AM/ERLY PM OVER THE RGN BUT LESS BREEZY IN THE AFTN THAN TODAY (STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ERN SHORE). LOOK FOR SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER THE CWA. SECONDARY H85 TROF PUSHES N/S OVER THE ERN THIRD LATE DAY/EVE AND NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TWRDS THE EVE BUT KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT SKIES BECOME CLR/MO CLR OVER INLAND VA/NC (WHILE CLOUDS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST BUT BULK MAINLY OFFSHORE). TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND H85 TROF PASSAGE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE OFF AND DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. THINKING A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF INLAND CWA AS FREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE LIKELY FOR MORE THAN A FEW HRS...SO HAVE ADDED WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE FCST (AWAY FROM THE COAST). WILL KEEP OUT FRZ WRNG HEADLINES FOR NOW SINCE IT IS LATE 3RD PERIOD AND LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON WHAT COUNTIES TO BE INCLUDED IN HEADLINE. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE RGN ON THU BUT CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH MAXES REACHING BACK INTO THE 50S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY LEADING TO S-M/S SKIES. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT AS CENTER OF RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE RGN. HAVE WENT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE DEW PTS FOR MIN TEMPS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND CLR SKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER HARD FREEZE (POSSIBLY CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THU AM). AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START...BACKSIDE OF H50 RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE RGN ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HELD ON TO DRY EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DRY AND GENLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING UPR TROF PUSHING OFF THE NERN COAST FRIDAY....WITH A SFC (DRY) COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION BY ERY SUNDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SURGING INTO THE M/U 60S...TO NEAR 70 OVER INTERIOR NE NC ZONES. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPR MID-ATL/NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY-TUES. ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLDS FROM RESULTANT N/NE FLOW ON MON/TUE...DRY WX CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE LATTER END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRNG WNDS NW OR W WNDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...THEN AGAIN (BUT NOT AS STRNG) FOR MUCH OF WED...AS INTENSE LO PRES MOVES AWAY TO THE N. HIEST WNDS WILL CONTINUE AT SBY. OTHRWISE...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTN THRU WED...WITH SCT-BKN SC OR LWR AC EXPECTED. HI PRES AND CALMER VFR CONDS THEN ARRIVING FOR WED NGT INTO THE WKND. && .MARINE... PRES GRADIENT FROM DEEPENING 988MB SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR VERY GUSTY W/NW WNDS TDA. BUFKIT MOMENTUM XFER CORRECTLY POINTING OUT GUSTS TO LOW END GALE THUS FAR...WITH MADIS ACARS SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOWING WNDS ALOFT IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AT H92-H85. GIVEN THESE WINDS...WILL HOLD ON TO WIND HEADLINES OVER LAND FOR NOW...AND STORM WARNING FLAGS OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (PARRAMORE ISLAND TO FENWICK ISLAND) WITH GALES ELSEWHERE. RUC/WRF SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT INDICATE WE MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK GALES TO SCA OVER FAR SOUTHERN WATERS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO ATTM. WL BRIEF EVENING CREW AND ALLOW THEM TO REASSESS AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. AFTER GALE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE...SCA FLAGS SHUD FLY OVER THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST ERY THU BEFORE WNDS SUBSIDE BY THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FOR FRI/SAT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT WE HV PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS. MRP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS BLOWOUT TIDE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND NORTHWARD. EXISTING LOW WATER ADVSY FOR THE NRN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES (WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE THE STORM WARNING) LOOK GOOD AND HV NOT BEEN ALTERED. TIDE LEVELS IN THIS AREA LOOK TO RUN ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 2.5 FT BELOW NORMAL...BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND RUNNING THRU WED AFTERNOON. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. NC...NONE. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ064-072>078- 084>086-099-100. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-654-656- 658. LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CCW NEAR TERM...CCW/MPR SHORT TERM...CCW LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAM md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1024 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE. STRONG NW FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BY THU AND AND ALLOW A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING...EVIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTOGENETIC BANDS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW PER KAKQ RADAR LOOPS. LATEST IR STLT IMAGERY SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT (WCB) TOWARD THE CLASSIC "S" SHAPE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF VA AND FAR ERN NC...WHILE LOWER LAYER CLOUDS (ASSCD WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT OR CCB) MOVE TRACK N-S. RUC MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CSI AND...GIVEN THE LIFT/MOISTURE SUPPORT UNDER THE PHASED WCB/CCB... THE DEVELOPMENT OF N-S SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY RADAR. THE UPSHOT...BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (ADDED LLVL COLUMN COOLING DUE TO THE ENHANCED DIABATIC EFFECTS OF EVAPORATION AND MELTING)...HAVE ADDED IN A CHANCE OF SNOW/SLEET WITH THE RAIN. IN FACT...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET MIXING WITH THE RAIN HAVE BEEN RELAYED TO OUR OFFICE THIS EVENING UNDER THE STRONGEST BANDS. LATER TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL TAPER IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE FROM W-E AS THE DEEPER FORCING AND CLOUD COVER (WCB) PULLS OFF TO THE E. LLVL MSTR (CCB) WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LOW LLVLS. AS FOR SFC TEMP TRENDS OVERNIGHT... DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF DROPOFF AFTER THE PRECIP PULLS OUT...EVEN AS WE SEE SOME CLEARING...GIVEN THE LLVL CAA AND CONTINUED BNDRY LAYER MIXING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID 30S TO NEAR 40 AWAY FROM THE COAST... WHICH ISN`T FAR OFF FROM WHERE WE ARE LATE THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE AND INTO CANADA WED. LOOKING TO THE WEST...1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TUE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S TUE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 3 WILL BOTH LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES WED. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT..ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS WL ALLOW FOR BREEZY TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER COLLABORATION...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES...WITH THE BELIEF THAT WNDS SHUD FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING WED AND THU MORNINGS.. MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WIND AND SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO SOME EXTENT. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED DURING LATER SHIFTS FOR SOME AREAS W OF I-95 AND ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THU WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...AS UPR TROF PUSHES OUT TO THE NORTH AND EASH AND SFC HI PRES BUILDS OVR THE REGION BY LT WEEK. A COLD FRNT WL PUSH ACRS THE AREA FM THE NW SAT NGT AND SUN. LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT LKS TO BE LACKING...AND IF THE ECMWF SOLN IS CORRECT...FRONT WL BE QUICK MOVING WITH LTL IF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF QPF. HELD ON TO SILENT POPS (OR LESS) FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK GOOD...AND DIDN`T CHANGE MUCH FROM INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN ARND THE 60S FRI AND SAT...AND IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S FRI MORNG...WITH UPR 30S TO UPR 40S SAT MORNG...AND IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 SUN MORNG. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WINDS GUSTING STILL AS INITIAL FRONTAL PASS CROSSES OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE RGN AND WITHIN A FEW HOURS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS INTO THIS EVE. BATCH OF SHRA MOVING OVER WRN/CNTRL VA AND WILL BRING THE CHC OF MVFR VSBY IN -SHRA AT FIRST. AS STORM DEEPENS CLOUD BASE WILL FALL (ESP EAST OF I-95). CIGS LOOK TO DROP TO IFR ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES FOR A TIME TNT WITH MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES IN SHRA ACTIVITY. TWRDS SUNRISE DRY AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE RGN W/E AND WILL LIFT CIGS TO MVFR/VFR AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ON THE OTHER HAND WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS (ESP SBY/ORF) LATE AM/PM. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE WITH LOW PRES SYS DEVELOPING ALONG BNDRY OFF THE VA/NC COAST. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OVERNIGHT TO OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY BY TUE MORNING...THEN TO THE UPPER NEW ENGLAND AREA BY TUE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AND SOUTHERN CHES BAY WTRS INTO TUE. GALES IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND FAR S CHES BAY...SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT...THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND (FOR NOW) THRU WED OVER NORTHERN ZONES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER OUT IN TIME BY FUTURE SHIFTS. BUFKIT MOMENTUM XFER VALUES EASILY YIELD 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS OVER ERN SHORE/AND NRTRN COASTAL WTRS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN BY THU WITH LIGHTER WINDS. AS FOR SEAS/WAVES...OFFSHORE WNW FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS FROM BUILDING THAT HIGH...MAINLY ARND 5 TO 6 FT....ABOUT 4 FT IN THE BAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631- 633. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JEF NEAR TERM...BKH SHORT TERM...LSA LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...CCW MARINE...JEF md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 107 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS. THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY... SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT. TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z. WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA... BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO -10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB) SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT 850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED NIGHT. THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL. FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...HIGH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...AND SUBSIDENCE WITH ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STUNT LK EFFECT EFFECT SHSN THROUGHU THE PERIOD. WITH A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...GM MARINE...JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 730 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS. THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY... SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT. TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z. WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA... BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO -10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB) SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT 850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED NIGHT. THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL. FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...HIGH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS... AND SUBSIDENCEWITH ACYC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STUNT LK EFFECT EFFECT SHSN TODAY LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WITHIN THE SC UPSTREAM ARE GENERALLY VFR. WITH A COLD FROPA TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO SW CANADA...AND TROUGHING THAT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS AREA. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER UPPER MI BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HAVE ROSE ANYWHERE FROM 60 TO 100 METERS BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z PER 00Z RAOBS. THESE HEIGHT RISES ARE APPLYING SUBSIDENCE OVER UPPER MI...WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON 00Z SNDGS FROM GRB AND CWPL WITH INVERSIONS AT 750MB. INL SHOWS EVEN MORE SUBSIDENCE WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB. ALL THREE SOUNDINGS SHOW A COLD BUT DRY AIRMASS BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH BOTH CWPL AND INL HAVING 850MB TEMPS AROUND -12C. THE COLD AIR IS HELPING TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO THE DRY AIR. PRETTY MUCH ALL LAKE EFFECT HAS DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN UPPER MI. EVEN WITH THE LONGER FETCH FOR NW WINDS ON EASTERN SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT THERE HAS NOT ORGANIZED MUCH. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...A SOLID VFR STRATUS DECK ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA...DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE AT THE INVERSION BASE. ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE FOR THE FORECAST IS A SHRTWV OVER NE MANITOBA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS UNDER THIS RIDGE MIXED OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS YESTERDAY... SHOWING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WITH THE RIDGE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT. TODAY...UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LOW FORMING OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE BY 00Z. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE SOME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY...THE SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA IS INDICATED TO DROP DOWN TO ABOUT THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. THIS SHRTWV WILL RESULT IN SOME HEIGHT FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN U.P.. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS FOR THE CWA IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING HAPPENING PCPN WISE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS WELL...WITH IT NOW SHOWING LESS QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH AND LOWER POPS INTO THE SCATTERED COVERAGE VARIETY. 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z ARE PROGGED BETWEEN -7 AND -9C...SO ANOTHER COOL DAY IS IN STORE. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE LIMITED AS WELL...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850MB...AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DROPPING DOWN OUT OF NE MANITOBA. HAVE WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. TONIGHT...SHRTWV OVER THE FAR NE END OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN TO LAKE HURON BY 06Z AND INTO WRN PA BY 12Z. WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV DROP THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY THE LAKE EFFECT A BIT. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME AS DNVA AND DRY ADVECTION ALOFT COMES IN BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AGAIN...THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AFFECTING THE EASTERN CWA AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY. KEPT POPS AGAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL SINCE THE BANDS WILL BE MOVING AROUND. NO LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRY ADVECTION...AIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN MN BY 12Z. REGARDING LOW TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE QUITE OF A BIT CLOUDS AROUND FROM LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE COOLEST SPOT PROBABLY BEING THE IWD AREA WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE DRY AIR. EVEN THERE...WITH A GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT GET THAT COLD. AGAIN WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WED...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO MOSTLY EJECT OUT INTO WESTERN CANADA...HELPING TO EXPAND THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR AT 500MB OVER THE CWA... BETWEEN 100 AND 150 METERS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL OCCUR...NOTED BY 850MB TEMPS JUMPING FROM -3 WEST TO -10C EAST AT 12Z TO 2C WEST TO -4C EAST AT 00Z. THESE HEIGHT RISES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL EFFECTIVELY END ANY LAKE EFFECT...LIKELY BY NOON. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THOUGH DEFINITELY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WHERE THE WARMER AIR COMES IN FIRST. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS ALSO ALIGNS THE TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. WED NIGHT AND THU...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO MAKE FURTHER IN ROADS TO THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE TROUGH THAT CAME OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP (UPPER 980S MB) SURFACE LOW THAT REACHES CHURCHILL MB AROUND 00Z FRI...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SE INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. UPPER MI WILL NOT FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS FRONT UNTIL LATER WED NIGHT...SINCE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DUE TO WARM ADVECTION/RISING HEIGHTS...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A COLD WED NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT INLAND AREAS OF THE CENTRAL U.P.. LOWERED LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BUT IF THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWS UP ANY MORE...FURTHER LOWERING MAY BE NEEDED. ON THU...INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING IN A PLUME OF DOWNSLOPED WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO UPPER MI. BY 00Z FRI...MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 12-14C. PROBLEM IS THAT 850MB IS WHERE THE GREATEST WARMING TAKES PLACE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MIXING UP TO ABOUT 910MB OR SO DURING THE DAY. STILL...THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO HAVE EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA IN THE 50S. EVEN A FEW 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN U.P. WHERE TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH ON WED NIGHT. THU NIGHT AND FRI...GFS/ECMWF TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AT 00Z INTO NRN QUEBEC. THIS ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH UPPER MI...WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HOWEVER...THE TRUE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT LAGGING...AND NEW ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. AT 00Z SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS 0C SOUTH TO -6C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE THE GFS HAS 2C SOUTH TO -4C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. SO THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD START OFF RELATIVELY MILD TOO FOR FRI MORNING...WITH A BREEZE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO KEEP READINGS UP. REGARDING PCPN CHANCES...NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS THE AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS DRY. TOOK OUT ANY CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AS THE AIR REALLY IS NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THAT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AT 00Z SAT ARE AT 900MB. IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY AS WELL. FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRI WILL BE A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS INTO UPPER MI SAT MORNING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB TEMPS DO DROP WITH THE HIGH...AGAIN A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH BEING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION...SO GENERALLY KEPT THE CLOUD COVER THE SAME. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRI. THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW INTO UPPER MI. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOOK AT ADDING SOME POPS IN FOR SUN...ASSUMING THE ECMWF IS FOLLOWED AS THE PAST TWO RUNS SHOW A SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THAT COMBINES WITH THE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE...LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN IS MILD WITH NO REAL COOL AIR IN SIGHT. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FM THE NW PER 00Z RAOB FM INL AND RECENT TAMDAR SDNGS TO THE NW/HI SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND SUBSIDENCE/INCRSGLY ACYC LLVL FLOW WL STUNT LK EFFECT SHSN INTO TUE...WITH VFR VSBY. CIGS WITHIN THE SC UPSTREAM ARE GENERALLY VFR. ALTHOUGH AN MVFR DECK IS PSBL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT CMX PER A FEW UPSTREAM OBS...VFR CIGS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AT BOTH SITES. SOME -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP TMRW AFTN/EVNG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO AND ACCOMPANING COLD FROPA. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR PUSHES OVER FAR ERN LK SUPERIOR. ARRIVAL OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS BY WED NIGHT...THEN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THU INTO FRI WILL RESULT IN S TO SW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WILL SWITCH WINDS BACK TO NRLY WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. NO GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 129 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/ NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE ON A WEATHER ROLLER COASTER OVER THE COMING WEEK. INITIALLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH A NICE WARM UP IN STORE BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN IN THE HALLOWEEN TIME FRAME. JPB && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1104 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON AHH...WINTER. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS. H8 TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN TO -8C IN WHITEFISH BAY...TO -4C OVER SAG BAY. PRECIP IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IS NOW PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH. H8 TEMPS WILL FALL TO -7C TO -9C BY 21Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON....ESSENTIALLY CHANGING MOST ALL AREAS TO SNOW. SOME DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF NE LOWER...AND OVER THE LAKE WATERS OF NRN LOWER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY BE GREATER THAN 1200 FEET. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE TO MORE OF A SNOW CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. LOOKING AT 12Z APX SOUNDING AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEE NO REASON WHY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL NOT FIRE OFF. SEEING ONLY A MINOR CAP AROUND 700MB...OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST (H5 TEMPS ARE SILL -32C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON). WENT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS BETWEEN 18-21Z BEFORE THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH FOR SURE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM GROUND AND WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY ONLY ALLOW FOR A DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AND EVEN THAT MIGHT JUST BE TEMPORARY). SNEAK PEEK AT TONIGHT...EARLIER NAM12 (06Z RUN) WAS SUGGESTING A VERY NICE CONVERGENT BAND FROM NRN LK SUPERIOR DOWN THROUGH NRN GTV BAY AND KALKASKA COUNTY OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY A FEW INCHES. LATEST 12Z RUN...COMPLETELY RULES THAT OUT...WITH MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD. NOT SURE WHAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR TONIGHT JUST YET...REQUIRES MORE DIGGING/ANALYSIS. SMD && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 340 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL TRANSITION PRECIP TYPE TO ALL FROZEN THIS EVENING EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...THINKING THIS AREA STILL HAS A CHANCE OF SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OVER 900J/KG TO START THE EVENING...THEN DROP TO 500-600J/KG OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION COMES DOWN. STILL SOME HEALTHY VALUES...AND WITH LONG FETCH COMING DOWN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR CONCERNED THAT WE COULD SEE A NICE BAND DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. NOT SURE I WANT TO OVERDO IT AT THIS POINT AS FORECAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSERVATIVE...BUT THESE EARLY SEASON EVENTS HAVE A TENDENCY TO JUMP UP AND BITE US ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. PLAN TO CARRY AN INCH OR TWO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ROUGHLY BETWEEN M-37 AND I-75. TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...AND DEVELOPING NORTHEAST U.S. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS (850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10C BY TUESDAY NIGHT). AT THE SAME TIME...THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SO CONDITIONS WILL...SLOWLY...BECOME MORE HOSTILE TO LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION. BUT IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO COME IN OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN. HOW FAR INLAND SNOW/MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT IS IN QUESTION...WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH KEEPS NORTHEAST LOWER BASICALLY DRY BUT THIS ISSUE WILL NEED TO BE RE-VISITED. EARLY EXTENDED PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. JPB && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 414 AM/ AT FIRST GLANCE LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE ABLE TO PULL THE GALE WARNINGS IN FAVOR OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE A PRESS TIME DECISION...BUT GRADIENT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME AND WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW GALE FORCE SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES AS WELL AS ON LAKE HURON FROM THE STRAITS DOWN TO THUNDER BAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST (MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 30KTS)...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVEN SEE GALES ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. JPB && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 126 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT ROLLS ON WITH SOME DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE RESULTING IN VFR PERIODIC MVFR CIGS WITH THE SHOWERS. TAF SITES MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW. SMD && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345- 346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ347>349. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321- 322. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 445 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO SW CANADA...AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HARD TO FIND REALLY ANY STRONG SHRTWVS WITHIN THE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT UPPER MI...THOUGH THERE ARE WEAK ONES PRESENT JUST NW OF ISLE ROYALE AND ANOTHER NEAR CENTRAL MANITOBA. PER 00Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS...THE CWA IS IN A LITTLE WARMER POCKET...WITH -6 TO -8C READINGS FROM DVN TO BIS AND NE TO CWPL...WHILE READINGS WERE MORE -2 TO -4C OVER THE CWA. 07Z 850MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THESE HAVE FALLEN TO -4 TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR OF -10 TO -12C EXISTS IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. THE COLD AIR IS ALSO QUITE MOIST...WITH SOUNDINGS AT INL AND CWPL NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE. DUE TO THE MOIST COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS 8C WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...NUMEROUS LAKE ENHANCED AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BLUSTERY OUT OF THE NW...BETWEEN A 996MB LOW AT THE SE END OF HUDSON BAY AND A 1039MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE. GUSTS SO FAR HAVE PEAKED AT 44 MPH AT COPPER HARBOR...38 MPH AT CMX...43 KT OR 49 MPH AT STANNARD ROCK AND 41 MPH AT MUNISING. PCPN TYPE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MI AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE...WITH EVEN OUR OFFICE NOW SNOWING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 34. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT GREAT HERE AT OUR OFFICE GIVEN WARM GROUND AND THE TEMPERATURE...WITH ONLY A LITTLE SLUSH ON CARS. BEST GUESS IS THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY HAVE PICKED UP AN INCH OR TWO... LIKELY ON GRASS SURFACES OR CARS. A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT HAPPENED WILL COME IN A FEW HOURS FROM COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS POSITION OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND THE ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS WEEK. TODAY...SHRTWV NW OF ISLE ROYALE LOOKS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING...AROUND 12Z...THEN HEADS SOUTH TO SRN LAKE MI BY 00Z. 500MB HEIGHTS OVER UPPER MI RISE BEHIND THIS SHRTWV...AND IN GENERAL AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST. THESE HEIGHT RISES MEANS SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER TODAY TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND THEREFORE SQUASH LAKE EFFECT A BIT. EXPECT THE EFFECT TO BE MOST PROMINENT IN THE WESTERN U.P....WHICH IS WHERE THE GREATEST HEIGHT RISE OCCURS AND IS ALSO CLOSER TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S F IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO). THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT FEEL THE EFFECT AS MUCH...DUE TO UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE NIPIGON. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR OVER MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO SURGES IN. LOOKING AT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...PCPN OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TODAY. PCPN OVER THE EASTERN U.P. LOOKS TO START OFF AS A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 18Z. ACCUMULATION WISE...MAJORITY OF LIFT BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 1...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY WENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HURON MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERN CWA NORMALLY WOULD HAVE MORE SNOW...BUT WITH THE MORNING STARTING OFF WITH A MIX AND THE WARM FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE UPPER 30S THROUGH THE DAY...ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE KEPT DOWN. TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...REACHING AN AXIS AT 12Z TUE FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MEANS MORE HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS PROGGED TO INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 10 METERS OVER THE EAST TO 60 METERS IN THE WEST. THEREFORE...MORE SUBSIDENCE AND WITH THE GREATER RISES IN THE WEST...THE MOST SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE THERE. SO EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO CONTINUE TO GET SQUASHED BY LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. IN FACT...OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AFTER 06Z THERE MAY NOT BE A LOT GOING ON AS OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN INDICATES. AGAIN...THE EASTERN CWA WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN MORE LAKE EFFECT BANDING DUE TO LESSER HEIGHT RISES AND UPSTREAM MOISTENING OFF LAKE NIPIGON. ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EASTERN CWA WILL DEPEND IF ANY OF THE BANDS CAN STAY IN PLACE...BUT OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW RUN DOES NOT SHOW THIS HAPPENING UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z WHEN THE BAND THAT EXTENDS OFF LAKE NIPIGON BECOMES STATIONARY BTWN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING THAT THE BAND COULD PRODUCE DECENT SNOWFALL... BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BAND ONLY AROUND 4000 FT DEEP AND MUCH OF IT IN TEMPS AT OR ABOVE -12C. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW TO WATER RATIOS DOWN CLOSER TO 10 TO 1...AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WRF-ARW FOR MIN TEMPS. COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND ALONG THE WI BORDER WITH LEAST MODIFICATION OF THE AIR BY LAKE SUPERIOR. TUESDAY...GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW A SHRTWV CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF AK INTO NW CANADA DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND AT LEAST INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z WED...IF NOT ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHRTWV WILL BE TO HOLD COLD AIR IN OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD AIR SHOULD HELP IN MAINTAINING THE SINGLE BAND OFF LAKE NIPIGON INTO ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN/LOCAL WRF-ARW RUNS. LAKE EFFECT BANDS SHOULD BE GOING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH GOING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. WHERE LOWER INVERSIONS ARE IN PLACE. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF A MIX WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN U.P. LAKE EFFECT AS MODEL WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE BELOW 700 FT AGL (WHERE RAIN WOULD START MIXING IN). LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO -10C RANGE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN FOR A SECOND DAY...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED. TUE NIGHT AND WED...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. HOW QUICK WILL DEPEND ON HOW WRAPPED UP THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA BECOMES OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AS MOST MODELS SHOW SOME 980S MB LOW OVER QUEBEC BY 00Z THU. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT BY 00Z THU...THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS REPRESENTING THE INFLECTION POINT WITHIN THE 500MB FLOW REACHING UPPER MI. THIS RIDGE AND THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO END ANY LAKE EFFECT BY WED AFTN. REGARDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR TUE NIGHT...THE LAKE NIPIGON BAND INTO ALGER COUNTY APPEARS TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOVING PARTIALLY INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AS LAND BREEZES FORM OFF ONTARIO. ADJUSTED POPS TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO. AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH...DUE TO LOWERING INVERSION AND THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL NEAR THE WI BORDER...PROBABLY IN THE MID 20S. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR...LOWER READINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ON WED...RISING 850MB TEMPS WHICH ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB 10C BTWN 12Z AND 00Z WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY. WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE WI BORDER SINCE THE WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN. WED NIGHT AND THU...A SWITCH TO MILDER WEATHER WILL BE TAKING PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND PUSHES INTO UPPER MI...AHEAD OF A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS A SURGE OF WARM 850MB TEMPS...PROGGED TO REACH 12-14C OVER UPPER MI ON THU. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO QUITE DRY...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING WED NIGHT...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WARM DAY ON THU...ESPECIALLY WITH A SW BREEZE EXPECTED. HAVE RAISED TEMPS ON THU TO MEX GUIDANCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE AT LEAST DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 60S. RECORD HIGH HERE AT THE OFFICE IS 63 SET IN 1978...AND DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE CAN MIX IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THAT RECORD MAY BE BROKEN. THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN INTO UPPER MI ON HALLOWEEN...BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER COLD SHOT... REFLECTED BY 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8C OR SO BY 00Z SAT PER GFS/ECMWF. HAVE INCLUDED SOME 20 POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRI AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. DIFFERENCE WITH THIS COLD SHOT TO THE CURRENT ONE IS THAT IT LOOKS VERY DRY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED AT 00Z SUN WHEN A 1040 MB HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH 850MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40C! SO ANY LAKE EFFECT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOUNT TO MUCH. RETURN FLOW STARTS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE NEW ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPS BOUNCING BACK UP TO 6-8C BY 00Z MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE TRADITIONAL FALL WEATHER WITH BACK AND FORTH SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS ESPECIALLY AT CMX INTO MON WITH FVRBL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...BUT WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG AS PRES RISE CENTER PASSES TO THE SE AND GRADIENT GRDLY DIMINISHES. UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS TENDING TO DRY A BIT IN THE LLVLS...SO CIGS WL VARY FM MVFR TO VFR THRU THE EARLY MRNG...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD VFR MON AFTN WITH SOME DAYTIME HTG/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME LK EFFECT SHRASN CHGING TO SN...THE DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTION. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY LATE TODAY INTO TUE. NORTH TO NW WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BY TUE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOOK FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-004-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY FOR LSZ162-243>245- 263. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ249>251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ240>242. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...AJ AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 125 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SYNOPSIS... 08Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERING CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION WITH RIDGING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WRN CONUS. WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE. ONE IS THE 522 DAM UPPER LOW IN FAR NRN ONTARIO...WHICH HAS AN ASSOCIATED 986MB LOW AT THE SFC. THE SECOND FEATURES IS THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV OVER WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN...WHICH SHOULD BRING FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS ASSOC WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE -8 TO -10C RANGE AND THESE COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING CHANGEOVER OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW TONIGHT AND STATUS OF CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE WEST. AS SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO -5 TO -8C BY 06Z AND TO -8 TO -10C BY 12Z MON...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS WEST. SO EXPECT PURE LAKE EFFECT TO SET LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WE LOSE ENHANCEMENT FROM DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MODELS SNDGS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP RH FROM SFC-700 MB TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE NW (310 DEG) AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KTS. AS PCPN CHANGES OVER TO MORE SNOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST...EXPECT ACCUMULATING LES TO BE DISPLACED INLAND DUE TO STRONG WINDS. SINCE THE MODEL SNDGS INDICATE THE BEST OMEGA/LIFT IS BELOW THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH EXPECT SNOW/WATER RATIO NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 10/1. HAVE WENT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES...HIGHEST BTWN IWD AND ROCKLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS...WHERE HIGHER 950MB CNVGC/LIFT TAKES PLACE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE EAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS GREATER FETCH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MODIFY TEMPS MORE THERE. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR LOWS...WHICH INDICATE READINGS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30 OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES AND EASTERN CWA. MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER IN THE -8 AND -10C RANGE. THUS...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT PCPN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. PCPN TYPE SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY MAYBE AS SOON AS LATE MORNING. MODELS SNDGS INDICATE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. DRYING EVEN NOTED BLO THE INVERSION FOR WRN SNDGS. EXPECT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL HINTING A LOCALLY MORE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER ALGER COUNTY WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMTS OVER THOSE AREAS. EVEN SO... ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREAT...AS HIGHS EAST ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH SOME MODIFICATION FROM THE LAKE. HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY) THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH EDGES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -12C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR CREATING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 17C. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH VALLEY AND BRING A NORTH WIND TO THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW SOME DRIER AIR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASED MOISTURE FIELD LATER IN THE NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TREK INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EDGES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE AREA BACKING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE RIDGE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST LATE. SINCE THE FLOW IS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER EAST END OF CWA. GFS MOVES TRACKS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER CONSENSUS. THIS WOULD KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PART OF THE CWA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PUSHED ALONG BY A RIDGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MOVES INTO THE WEST END ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE IMPEDED IN ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BY THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY ENOUGH OVER THE AREA TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 13C OVER THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. HELPING TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY... DRAWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL SHOWING ENOUGH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -4C OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEVELOP. PLAN TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY IN THE FORECASTS. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON FRIDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT DEEPENS. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CANADA AND SETTLE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TO -8C TO -10C DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL USED. THIS ACCOMPANIED BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL ADD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL CHANGE SOME OF LES TO LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WARMER DRIER AIR AND ENDING THE LES POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS ESPECIALLY AT CMX INTO MON WITH FVRBL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT...BUT WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG AS PRES RISE CENTER PASSES TO THE SE AND GRADIENT GRDLY DIMINISHES. UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS TENDING TO DRY A BIT IN THE LLVLS...SO CIGS WL VARY FM MVFR TO VFR THRU THE EARLY MRNG...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD VFR MON AFTN WITH SOME DAYTIME HTG/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME LK EFFECT SHRASN CHGING TO SN...THE DRIER LLVL AIR WL LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTION. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... CAA RESULTING IN DECREASING STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG 925-850 MB NW WINDS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATER AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE 30 KNOT WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ264-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EDT /11 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162- 240>242-263. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ249>251. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ245-248. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ243-244. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...DLG AVIATION...KC MARINE...VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1211 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION...ISSUED 209 AM CDT THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEGREE OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU. GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH / 500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE. SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN APPEAR POSSIBLE. BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET AGL THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN CLEARING TONIGHT. SFC WNDS REMAINING GUSTY AROUND 25 KNOTS...THEN DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. GENLY EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MTF/JVM mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 545 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION...ISSUED 209 AM CDT THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEGREE OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU. GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH / 500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE. SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN APPEAR POSSIBLE. BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV. && .AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ IR SATL IMAGERY SHWG NMRS LGE BRKS DVLPG IN CLD DECK ACRS AREA WITH MANY OF THE LARGER LAKES BCMG VSBL. TRENDED MOST TAF SITES TWRD BKN CIGS IN 4K TO 5K RANGE THRU MUCH OF DAY...WITH CLRNG FM W-E THIS AFTN/EVE AS HIGH PRES MVS IN. VORT NR YQT WL CONT TO DIVE SE AND WL BRNG THREAT OF FEW FLURYS AT WI TAF SITES NEXT SVRL HRS. RATHER GUSTY SFC WNDS TO CONT THRU MUCH OF DAY WITH STG PRES GRAD...BUT WL DMNSH WC MN BY MID AFTN AS SFC RIDGE APRCHS. MAINLY CLR OVRNITE UNDER COLD HI PRES. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MTF/BAP mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 209 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE COOL TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEGREE OF WARMING ON WEDS AND THU. GOES SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOWING PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUING TO EVOLVE INTO THE ERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA. NRLY TROPOSPHERIC AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY /AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL VORTS WITH STEEPENED LOWER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN AND ERN MN AND WI. BEST-DEFINED...AND LAST WAVE IN THIS NRLY FLOW...WILL BE DIVING INTO NE MN AND WRN WI THIS MORN INTO EARLY AFTN. BEST LAPSE RATES/RH AND ASSOCIATED TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES PASS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS WITH A BORDER MENTION OF FLURRIES. WHILE SOME PRECIP HAS BEEN INDICATED AS RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD ONLY SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN PROJECTED RUC SOUNDINGS INTO MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING ON IR CHANNEL MATCHES UP WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF TROUGH / 500 SHEARED VORT MAX AND HAVE SEEN THAT LINK MANY TIMES BEFORE. SO HAVE TIMED LATE AFTN AND NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH THAT PROJECTION. MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS BEHIND THIS IN THE NNW UPPER FLOW BUT LIKELY NOT TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WRN MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO SRN AND ERN MN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THIS FLOW REGIME THE TEMPS SHOULD TAKE A DIVE IN THESE LOCALES. GIVEN STARTING READINGS IN THE 30S GOING INTO THIS EVE AND CONSIDERING A TYPICAL DIURNAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED LOWER TEENS IN WRN MN APPEAR POSSIBLE. BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THU. WITH THIS WILL COME WARMING...MOST NOTABLY ON WEDS AND THU. AIR MASS STILL APPEARS QUITE DRY WITH A WRLY COMPONENT IN THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE NICELY DURING THOSE DAYS. HAVE INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WITH THE TREND ALSO SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. MIX DOWN POTENTIAL TO 925MB FORECAST BY THE GFS FOR BOTH WEDS AND THU...WHICH WOULD YIELD 60S FOR HIGHS. BELIEVE WRN MN WILL SEE THAT ON WED AND IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ON THU. GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW SOME WEAK WAVE BREAKING OFF FROM THE SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IN SRN CANADA FOR THU. BUT THIS APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL TIMED FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. FRONT ALSO LACKS GOOD MOISTURE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OMEGA FORECAST AS IT LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO FLOW. COOLEST 850-925MB AIR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA THOUGH IN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAD BEEN THE TREND BEFORE YESTERDAY INTO TODAY...SO FIND THIS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION. STILL TEMPS DO LOOK TO DROP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF NOV. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ CIGS PREDOMINATELY VFR ACROSS FA. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH PERHAPS BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR IN -SN...AS SHEARED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT. MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR ALL BUT KRWF THROUGH 11Z OR SO. ALSO POSSIBLE RASN YET OVER WC WI AS WELL...BUT TENDENCY IS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL THIS AM. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY/BUT REMAINING GUSTY MON AS SFC HIGH PRES RDG MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH OVER THE AREA UNTIL RDG PASSES SO WILL GO ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 23Z MON MOST AREAS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ MTF/DWE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 746 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...WITH SNOW AND RAIN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS EVENING. WINDY AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IMPRESSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER WESTERN MA/CT WITH PRESSURE HAVING FALLEN TO 988 MB AS OF 19Z IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM...AN AREA OF DEFORMATION...AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAKENING OVER THE I81 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES DECREASING AS A RESULT. FURTHER EAST...OVER THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...A NEW DEFORMATION BAND IS PROGGED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM RUC TO FORM...AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE OVER THE VERY EASTERN- MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AREAS WAS STARTING TO CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IS NOW ENDING...SO OVER THE AREA THAT HAD NO HEADLINES...VERY LITTLE SNOWFALL OCCURRED. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE VERY VARIABLE...WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG I81 SEEING ALMOST NOTHING...AND AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS ABOVE 1500-2000 FEET SEEING NEARLY ONE FOOT OF SNOW. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON OUT BEING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A KBGM TO KMSV...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FURTHER NORTH...OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NO SNOW HAS OCCURRED...AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR A CHANGEOVER AS THE BACK EDGE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA LATE THIS EVENING. COULD SEE AN INCH IN THE VALLEY WITH 2 TO 4 ABOVE 1500 FEET. FINALLY...OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY...CURRENT REPORTS SUGGEST RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW...AND GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCATION TO HAVE THE PRECIP END...WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE/LL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS THE FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR A SINGLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. DO EXPECT SOME SHSN GIVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT FALLING MUCH BELOW 30F BY DAYBREAK. FINALLY...WINDS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 20-25G30-35KTS WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTH INTO CANADA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SIGNATURES FOR LAKE EFFECT BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS A 300 DEGREE FLOW SETS UP WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 10KFT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US CUTOFF ADDING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT /HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OVER PA/. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE BL TEMPS...WHICH AGAIN...WITH LLEVEL FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE...WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 33-36 F RANGE. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON AND NORTHERN CORTLAND/CHENANGO COUNTIES WHERE THE TERRAIN IS HIGHER AND LLEVEL TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. RIGHT NOW AM EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS BEING LIMITED BY 1-THE FLOW BEING A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY FOR GOOD SINGLE BAND DEVELOPMENT AND 2-BL TEMPS BEING MARGINAL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHRASN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO 35-40F AS T925 AROUND -1C...AND MCLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT A STRONG AS ON TUESDAY...GUSTING TO 25KTS DURING THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL GAIN AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT...THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT SCT SHSN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...LIKELY FALLING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30F GIVEN LESS MIXING AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BETTER DAY AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US PULLS AWAY WITH THE H85 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING BY EVENING. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRASN WILL END...AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. T925 WILL BE SIMILAR TO ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE... WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOUNCE INTO THE 40S && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GIVEN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS. ONLY WX-MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES FRI NGT/SAT. PLAYED A BAND OF FNTL-CLDS AND LOW CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTRW WE XPCT HI PRES TO BE IN CONTROL WITH FAIR WX. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS MAIN SNOW BANDS LIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR KSYR...KRME...KBGM...AND KITH...THOUGH...MVFR TO IFR SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS START TO KICK IN. FOR KELM AND KAVP...A TRANSITION BACK TO VFR SHOULD TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT...UP TO 30 KT THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY FROM TIME TO TIME ON WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING MAINLY KSYR AND KRME...VFR SHOULD BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT OR SO...OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. OUTLOOK... WED NGT THRU SUNDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD...WITH A CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS FRI NGT/SAT AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVS THRU. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039- 040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018- 044-045-056-062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-036- 037-046-057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMA NEAR TERM...JMA SHORT TERM...JMA LONG TERM... AVIATION...MLJ ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...WITH BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 10AM...FORECAST CONTINUES TO GO PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO PLAN. LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAS REACHED AROUND 990 MB...IS NEARING LONG ISLAND WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY. BANDED PRECIPITATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS...AND NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 500-700 HPA LAYER. PTYPE HAS BEEN VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT...AS WELL AS RELATED TO PRECIP INTENSITY WITH THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF I 81 AND SOUTH OF I 88 WHERE UP TO 8-9 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS. SHORT TERM RUC FORECASTS...AND RECENT TRENDS...SUGGEST THAT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...THE H85 LOW WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH WITH TEMPS ALOFT COOLING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE BL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR FREEZING...THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND...WITH MORE VALLEY LOCATIONS CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT MEASUREMENTS AND TRENDS...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO FLAGS THIS MORNING...AND HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED AN INCREASED SNOW GRADIENT IN THE VERTICAL...WITH A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO IN THE VALLEYS ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR BY LATE EVENING...WITH UP TO A FOOT AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2KFT IN THE POCONOS/CATSKILLS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TODAY WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY...GIVEN INCREASING INSOLATION AND WARM GROUND TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL LOCALLY OVERCOME THIS WARMTH...AGAIN ESP OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. WINDS ARE COMING UP ATTM WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS ATTM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE WORDED THIS STRONGLY IN THE WSW AND THE HWO. TWEAKED OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...BUT THINGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED PRODUCTS/GRIDS ARE ON THE STREET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FORECAST PRETTY MUCH GOING AS PLANNED AS LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, AND TEMPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING FROM NEAR 40 INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA WHERE INCREASING PRECIP RATES HAVE COOLED THE COLUMN. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, PRECIP HAS SPREAD FURTHER TO THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN RESPONSE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT BANDING GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 THIS MORNING AS LOW TRACKS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTN. KEPT THE FORECAST GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS AND HEADLINES AS IS. A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BROOME, CHENANGO, AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE SNOW TOTALS MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA. DID BUMP UP THE HIGHER END OF THE TOTALS FOR THESE COUNTIES FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, KEEPING ADVISORY AVERAGE ACCUMS INTACT. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WINDS...REACHING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE NEAR ADVISORY WINDS ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FALLING BRANCHES/TREES/WIRES DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND ANY REMAINING FOLIAGE ON THE TREES. POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SRN CANADA THIS EVENING, WILL SEE PRECIP TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVERNIGHT ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, ONEIDA COUNTIES AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY INTO WED NGT ON A GENERAL 290-300 FLOW WITH AMPLE LAKE/TEMP DIFFERENTIAL. ADDED SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMS THAT MAY MAKE A LAKE EFFECT HEADLINE NECESSARY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS SHIFT WITH SO MUCH GOING ON FOR THE NEXT 12 PLUS HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ELSEWHERE...A BLUSTERY AND COOL DAY WED WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TOWARDS 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, GRADUALLY SHUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GIVEN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM...WE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS. ONLY WX-MAKER OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES FRI NGT/SAT. PLAYED A BAND OF FNTL-CLDS AND LOW CHC POPS ACRS UPSTATE WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTRW WE XPCT HI PRES TO BE IN CONTROL WITH FAIR WX. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WDSPRD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN...WITH LCL LIFR...MAINLY ON THE HILLTOPS. PCPN SHIELD WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND RAIN OR A MIX IN THE VLYS...WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG...WITH PCPN XPCTD TO TAPER OFF IN THE 20Z (FAR WEST) TO 04Z (FAR NE) TIME FRAME. WE XPCT MORE -SHSN TO DVLP LATER TNGT AND PERSIST INTO WED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS NW 15-25 G35 THIS AFTN...DIMINISHING A BIT TNGT...AND 15-25 ON WED. OUTLOOK... WED NGT THRU SUNDAY...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD...WITH A CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS FRI NGT/SAT AS A WEAK CDFNT MOVS THRU. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039- 040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ018- 036-037-044-045-056-062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-046- 057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JML NEAR TERM...JMA/JML SHORT TERM...JML ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 153 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST, AND MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR GETS FILTERED INTO THE REGION, AND PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1130AM...ONE FINAL UPDATE FOR SKY COVER AND AFTERNOON POPS AS THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ECHOES ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND ON OUR RADAR AND THOSE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...SUGGESTING SOME ISO SHRA BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. TWEAKED TEMPS JUST A TAD....AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS CONSIDERABLY AS DRY AIR GETS DRAWN IN FROM THE WEST AND WE MIX OUT OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE ON THE STREET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON RELATIVE LACK OF PRECIPITATION ON THE RADAR SCOPE AS OF 13Z. HAVE SEEN SOME ISOLATED SHRA BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW STALLING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA...BUT DRIER AIR IS WORKING IN AT LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD DIMINISH THE SHRA CHANCES AS THE DAY GOES ON. HOWEVER...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING WEST OF OUR AREA...AND FLOW BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL OVERHEAD AS A RESULT...EXPECT BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO HAVE TROUBLE MOVING MUCH TO THE EAST...WITH THE MOST SUNNY BREAKS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 81. THE RUC EVEN SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TOWARDS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE VERY FEW TWEAKS WITH THEM. TOMORROW/S FORECAST LOOKS VERY INTERESTING GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE 6Z GUIDANCE. SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR CATSKILL ZONES NORTH AND EAST. 12Z GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TO TRICKLE IN...SO WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS LATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE TRENDING TWD A MORE DEVELOPED SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NAM IS THE MOST DEVELOPED AND SLOWER OF THE MODELS, SO IT`S SOLUTION WAS LEANED AWAY FROM FOR THIS FCST PKG. FOLLOWED A MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TWD THE GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS DEVELOPED THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FOCUS THE CORE OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM NWD FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW ECMWF JUST COMING IN IS ALSO TRENDING TWD A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...SO THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A FAIRLY SIMILAR SOLUTION. IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE FROM SRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND TEMP PROFILES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD EXTEND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN CURRENT THINKING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE PRECIP WOULD START OUT IN LIQUID FORM, THEN LEAN TWD A CHANGE OVER TO MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW DURING TUESDAY AFTN AS COLDER AIR GETS PULLED IN AND THE COLUMN COOLS. SRN PART OF THE TUG HILL MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW THAT LOOKS LIKE WILL FALL TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED SNOW TOTALS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT UP ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -8C. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GIVEN THE COMPLEX AND SIG WINTER WX EVENT THAT WE`RE XPCTNG LATER TNGT AND ON TUES...WE DEFAULTED TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE MEDIUM RNG...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWED OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS. LINGERING LES LIKELY NRN ZONES ON WED NGT...DIMINISHING LATE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL BE QUICK TO REBOUND LATE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO PASS FRI NGT OR SAT MRNG WITH LIMITED MSTR. HIGH PRES FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH FAIR WX FCST INTO EARLY NXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVNG AS RAIN DVLPS ACRS THE RGN. WDSPRD MVFR CIGS BY MID EVNG...LOWERING TO IFR OVERNGT. RAIN IS FCST TO MIX WITH OR CHGOVER TO SNOW LATE TNGT OR EARLY TMRW MRNG..ALTHO PCPN AT SYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIQUID THRU 18Z. XPCT WDSPRD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS TMRW DUE TO RA/SN/LOW CIGS. IN ADDN...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DVLP AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT...WITH MOST SITES 15-25 G25-30. OUTLOOK... TUES NGT INTO WED...GNRLY IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ACRS UPSTATE NY...MVFR OVER NE PA IN SCT -SHSN. WED NGT...MVFR ACRS UPSTATE DUE TO LES...VFR ELSEWHERE. THU/THU NGT/FRI...VFR. FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR WITH SCT -SHRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JML NEAR TERM...JMA SHORT TERM...JML ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 830 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATES. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH FA AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. LITTLE AFFECTS WITH FEATURE AS SURFACE FLOW SO WEAK AND LITTLE OVERALL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. SOME UPSTREAM MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER RIDGE BUT HAVING A TOUGH TIME ADVANCING SOUTH. RUC DOES BRING A FINGER OF HIGH LEVEL RH INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARDS MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES. WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LINING UP WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS SO AM NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO UPDATE NOT REQUIRED. && .AVIATION...VFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1013 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .DISCUSSION...NO NEED TO UPDATE FOR TODAY. 12Z NAM/RUC AGREE WITH ALL PARAMETERS OF CURRENT FORECAST...AND CURRENT TEMP RISE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL RISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM INDICATING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (POSSIBLY SCT CIRRUS...BUT NOTHING OF IMPORTANCE). && .AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. SOME CIRRUS OVER NW MN...OTHERWISE CLEAR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/ SHORT TERM... TEMPS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE INTO LATE WEEK AS A WELCOME DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WARM A GOOD 8 TO 10C TODAY. THOUGH SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...THE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE ON TUESDAY. WITH A WARMER START THAN EXPECTED...MOST SITES WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO NRN MN OVER THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER MONTANA...BUT OTHERWISE FULL SUN EXPECTED. TONIGHT WILL SEE A WEAK COOL FRONT DROP SOUTH AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROP SOUTHEAST THRU ONTARIO AND WINDS TURN LIGHT NORTHERLY. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL TURN BACK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM ANOTHER 5C WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA 12-18Z THURSDAY. THUS CONTINUED WARMING BOTH DAYS...WITH UPR 50S TO MID 60S A GOOD BET ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM... YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS/ECMWF WHICH HAD A COLDER SHOT OF AIR COMING DOWN IS NO LONGER ADVERTISED BY ANY MODEL. ALL MODELS SHOW MAIN BRUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH SO UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS NEEDED FOR FRI-SAT. NOW...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND THIS NOTED BY PRELIM EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM HPC. 500 MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF SHORE THE PAC NW WITH SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO ENTER THE PLAINS. 18Z MON AND 00Z TUES GFS RUNS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW DUE SUN NIGHT- MON BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS WHICH HAVE A MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN. CURRENT GRIDDS FAVOR THIS WEAKER SOLN SO WILL MAINTAIN IT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ TG nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 357 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE SEASON`S FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS IN NRN AND WRN MTS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THEY TRY TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONTAL TROF LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY ACCORDING TO THE PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE COLD AIR IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO EASTER OHIO ACCORDING TO THE SFC OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU OHIO...WHICH PROMISES TO HELP FIRE UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS INCREASINGLY CHILLY AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. FOR TODAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE THEIR PRESENCE FELT. MODELS AGREE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TODAY WILL BE OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCED...MEANING WESTERN AND NORTHER HIGH TERRAIN WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO INSERTED WORDING FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY AS THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO SHARPLY DECEASE STABILITY. PROGGED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7C/KM BY AFTERNOON...WITH LI`S APPROACHING ZERO AND T-TOTALS NEARING 60. WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL...BUT WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR ALOFT POURING IN...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL MAKE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE EARLY ON IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NAM WANTING TO BRUSH MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SIG PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EVENTUAL OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR DEEPENING UPPER AIR LOW/TROF. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WE SEE SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THE 00Z NAM IS THE OUTLIER BRINGING SO MUCH PRECIP SO FAR WEST NEAR MY FCST AREA. 00Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF SUGGEST LOW TO NO POPS IN THE EAST WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. DID COMPROMISE A TAD ON THE FAR EASTERN CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY...TO BETTER BLEND WITH EASTERN NEIGHBORS...BUT BELIEVE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE VERY LOW OVERALL. THE MAIN ACTION SHOULD STAY IN THE WEST AND NW WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE EFFECT FORCES MANAGE TO BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THINK THE SEASON`S FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE SEEN IN THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS...BUT WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS AND RELATIVELY SHORT OVER-LAKE WIND FETCHES...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE MAY SEE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHTLY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER OVER- LAKE FETCH AND A POSSIBLE LAKE HURON CONNECTION. STILL TOO EARLY TO ZERO IN ON WHAT WOULD BE A MESO SCALE FEATURE...JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE. BIGGER PATTERN WILL KEEP US COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEFORE SOME MODERATING TEMPS MAKE A RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK. OTHER THAN WRESTLING WITH LAKE/OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS...PRECIP WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN EXTREMELY STRONG JET...ALONG WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS ALONG FRONT...EVEN THUNDER OVER LAKE ERIE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE REPORTS OF SEVERE TURB TODAY. AS WINDS BACK MORE...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO HAVE A HARD TIME CROSSING THE MTS. WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR PRIOR TO 06Z TUESDAY. THE OTHER FCST CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF RADIATION FOG ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AHEAD OF FROPA. CLEAR SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING SOME SPOTS TO DECOUPLE...AND LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING NR SATURATION AT THE SFC ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY BTWN 05-09Z. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH MENTION OF FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. COLDER AIR AND A BETTER LAKE EFFECT REGIME THROUGH WED WILL FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES /BFD AND JST/ WITH SNOW SHWRS WILL BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO WED MORNING. ACROSS THE RIDGE... VALLEY AREA...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. EAST OF MTNS...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL. THIS ASSUMES THAT THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW DOES NOT COME MUCH FURTHER WEST. HI PRES RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY THURSDAY...BRINGING GOOD FLYING CONDS TO ALL AREAS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AS A LARGE SCALE WARM UP TAKES PLACE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LACORTE NEAR TERM...LACORTE SHORT TERM...LACORTE LONG TERM...LACORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .AVIATION... VFR FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT DHT AND GUY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. TAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. TAB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/ DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION... WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS. CLK FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 10/21 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 633 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. TAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008/ DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION... WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS. CLK FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 10/21 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .DISCUSSION... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED IN CURRENT MSAS SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT SFC FLOW TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER LOW TEMPS ALTHOUGH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK UP IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET ALTHOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS AREA DRY WITH FROPA AND GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FRONT...SEE LITTLE TO DISAGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO WARM GIVEN FULL SUN AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION... WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND SOME AREAS CAN EVEN TAG 80 THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 12Z ECMWF NOW BACKING OFF ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE AREA UNTIL THU. OPTED TO KEEP GOING FORECAST DRY BUT DID LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE PLAINS. CLK && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS CAN SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER FOR NOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT. CLK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 42 76 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 5 BEAVER OK 32 73 42 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 5 BOISE CITY OK 41 74 45 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 5 BORGER TX 47 76 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 5 BOYS RANCH TX 42 78 44 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 5 CANYON TX 39 78 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 5 CLARENDON TX 42 75 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 5 DALHART TX 39 74 40 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 5 GUYMON OK 36 74 43 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 5 HEREFORD TX 39 77 43 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 5 LIPSCOMB TX 35 74 43 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 5 PAMPA TX 48 72 50 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 5 SHAMROCK TX 38 75 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 5 WELLINGTON TX 39 75 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 11/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 332 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .DISCUSSION...AT 3 AM COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A HOUSTON TO SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TO EAGLE PASS LINE. THE FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. AT THIS SPEED THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE MOVING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER VALLEY BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. SAN ANTONIO RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAVE BEEN SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DEEPER MOISTURE. NAM40 AND RUC40 SHOW AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH THE GFS MOST BULLISH ON POPS WHILE THE NAM12 INDICATES POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT. WILL PAINT 20 PERCENT MOST PLACES WITH 30 PERCENT ALONG THE RIVER FROM ZAPATA TO BROWNSVILLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH WITH A POSSIBLE UPDATE BEFORE SHIFT CHANGE IF AREAL COVERAGE INCREASES. THE FRONT HAS A MODEST PUNCH TO IT WITH ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH. ALSO...DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING OFF FASTER THEN TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AT BEST. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE A RAPID DROP IN RH VALUES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MID MORNING PEAKS. GFS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S FORECAST NUMBERS SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME RECOVERY LATE IN THE DAY ESPECIALLY UP NORTH WITH CLOUDS CLEARING QUICKER. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...CLOUDS CLEARING AND COOL SURFACE HIGH...1035MB...SETTLING OVERHEAD. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY BUT COOL START SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMALS. A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE USED. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD TAPPER OFF AND VEER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL EVENING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CCA CUT OFF AND WINDS TURNING EAST LOWS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM MIDWEEK ON SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING AND INCREASING MOISTURE TREND UNDERWAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER MOST ENERGY REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT INDICATED AND LITTLE...IF ANY...TEMPERATURE DROP. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE VALLEYS WEATHER THEN THIS FRONT. && .AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS LIKELY. SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF THIS MORNING WITH ALL AREAS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 8 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 01 CDT/06 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 57 77 58 / 30 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 77 54 78 56 / 30 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 53 78 54 / 30 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 53 79 53 / 30 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 52 78 52 / 30 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 58 76 62 / 30 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 59/66 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 247 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008 .SHORT TERM... LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR AND CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LAST OF THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAX WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AROUND 00Z. BY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT MAX SHOULD HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHED TO MAINLY FLURRIES. UPPER TROUGH STARTSA TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. THEREFORE SKIES MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR TONIGHT. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS COULD OCCUR JUST BEHIND EXITING VORT. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WILL RAISE MOS TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT...DUE TO CLOUDS AND MORE WIND...BUT CUT THEM A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... 12Z ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX CONTINUES TO BE VERY SIMILAR THOUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN DISCREPANCIES. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ON STRENGTH OF DAY SIX SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER THIS HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER DAY SEVEN. MORE OF A DRY ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA...BUT LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN SATURDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN SCATTERED INSTABILITY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. 4KM MODELS SHOW THESE DECREASING RAPIDLY BETWEEN 23 AND 00Z. ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW MINUTES AT ANY ONE LOCATION SO NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN TAFS. AFTER DARK INSTABILITY DECREASES...SO CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN AND BREAK UP AS WELL. DURING THE NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. MARINE... NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS MAY BE A TAD STRONGER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT PERSISTENT MODERATE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE THE RULE. WITH FAIRLY SMALL FETCH HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD OPEN WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAKER FLOW FINALLY MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06 AVIATION/MARINE...02 wi SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 944 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2008 .UPDATE...VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TINKERING WITH THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...WHILE MARINE LAYER STRATUS REMAINS ABSENT OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT. DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST CURRENTLY AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CIRRUS DECK...BUT THIS BREAK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT AREA OF CIRRUS IS PUSHING ASHORE. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SOME DOUBTS EXIST IN THE MARINE LAYER REDEVELOPING TONIGHT FROM THE LOOKS OF CURRENT FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND KLAX-KDAG SURFACE TRENDING ONSHORE THIS EVENING...IT CANNOT BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT. NAM-WRF AND 13 KM RUC SOLUTION INDICATE SOME SORT OF MOISTURE PRESENCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE BIGHT. THE CURRENT PACKAGE WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW. KSMX-KSBA GRADIENTS HAVE SURGED SURPRISINGLY OUT OF THE NORTH. CURRENT KSBA-KSMX GRADIENTS ARE NEAR -4.1 MB THIS EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. NAM-WRF 975 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS LOOK DECENT AROUND 7 DEGREES CELSIUS BETWEEN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND THE EAST SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL...BUT THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN BY 06Z AS NAM-WRF INDICATES. 13 KM RUC ALSO BACKS UP THIS HYPOTHESIS AS WELL. GOOD AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO EMERGE FOR THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK. CLOUDINESS SHOULD START INCREASE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS MOISTEN. GFS AND NAM-WRF 700-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MIXING RATIOS INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. 850 MB MIXING RATIOS AND TEMPERATURES INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS OR MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE ON THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT IS ALSO PRESENT AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK PUSHES THE EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...THE LOWER LEVELS REALLY START MOISTENING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS FRIDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. NEXT SHIFT WILL BRIEFED ON THIS SCENARIO AS GOOD AGREEMENT DOES EXISTS BETWEEN FOR THE NAM-WRF...GFS...AND UKMET FOR THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTIVE SIGNATURES EXIST FOR THE WHOLE AREA AT POINTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OCCURRING AT 500 MB. A COUPLE INGREDIENTS THAT CANNOT SEEM NOT TO AGREE IS THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN. NAM-WRF SEEMS TO BE LACKING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 500 MB RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...POPS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP AGAIN AS THE STORM SYSTEM WINDOW GETS CLOSER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2008/ SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...TEMPS SOARED TODAY OVER INLAND VTU/L.A. COUNTIES...WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF RAWS AUTOMATED STATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK (BEVERLY HILLS AT 103 DEGREES WAS THE HOTTEST READING). THE HEAT WAS COMPLIMENTS OF CONTINUED OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAKE A QUICK RETURN INLAND OVER THIS AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CLOUDS WERE LARGELY ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MARINE LAYER CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE TO THE L.A./VTU COAST PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TO THE SBA S COAST BY SUNRISE. GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION PERSISTING GENERALLY AT 500 TO 800 FT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH ANY OF THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH WED...WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN CA. A LARGE E PAC UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH CENTRAL AND SRN CA WED NIGHT AND THU. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THEN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE DISTRICT THRU THU. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW THRU WED THEN INCREASE SOME WED NIGHT INTO THU. VARYING AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO THU. WITH THE UPPER TROF APPROACHING THU...IT LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CA. ALTHO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVER THE REGION ON WED...HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. TEMPS WILL TURN EVEN COOLER FOR THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST OVER THE E PAC THRU FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST THU EVENING THEN MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALONG WITH A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES BUT IT SHOULD STILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER...BUT PERHAPS UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH COULD FALL IN NW SLO COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER S. VTU/LAX COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE PERIOD. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT THAT FAR APART IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM. BROAD LONG WAVE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE E PAC WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROF NEAR 130 W BY 12Z SAT THEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NRN CA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BY SAT MORNING FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD S INTO VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SAT NIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER SLO/SBA COUNTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST OF THE ENERGY DRIVING THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS BY LATE SUN MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES SUN AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT SLO/SBA COUNTIES SHOULD GET THE BULK OF THE RAIN WHICH COULD BE OVER HALF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE E BY MON WITH A BROAD DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DISTRICT...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LINGER THRU WED. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU MON THEN MAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS BY WED. && .AVIATION...28/2358Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT INLAND TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AT KSMX AND KSBP...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THAT SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ONSET AT KSMX EARLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z...BUT KSBP MAY ONLY SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AN ABSENT MARINE LAYER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER OUT OF COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 08Z...OR AS LATE AS 13Z. FORECAST INDICATES A CHANCE OF MARINE LAYER FOR NOW. KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT 08Z TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LATE AS 11Z AT KLAX. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. AFTER 16Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP. KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ HALL/SIRARD WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 417 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2008 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING UPPER RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A MINOR SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ATTM. TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL ADVERTISED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING CONTINUES ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NOT MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AND WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LEE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF WAVE...WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 8-10C ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY READINGS. LEE TROUGH KICKS OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...SAVE PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE STRONG SFC BASED INVERSIONS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. -MW .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) VARIOUS DEGREES OF UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CWFA FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. SOME CHANGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AT 00Z MONDAY IMPACTS THE REGION FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POINTS NORTH FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO DURING THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY SOME 20 PLUS DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS THURSDAYS THROUGH SATURDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE OF MY EXTENDED FORECAST WINDOW. SO IN A NUTSHELL...IF ONE PREFERS WARM TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE/DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LOW-GRADE WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY SHOULD FIT THIS SCENARIO. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. -MW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 430 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE UPPER MI. RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK REASONABLE. TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH 925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE. FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND 900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... WITH LK MOISTENING ENHANCED BY FLOW OFF LK NIPIGON...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO POSSIBLY DVLP THIS MRNG AT CMX...BUT MORE LIKELY AT SAW AS COLD NLY FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA INVADES THE UPR GRT LKS UNDER STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN. VFR CIG THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF AT ERY UNDER THE SAME LAKE EFFECT REGIME IS SOMEWHAT WORRISOME...BUT WILL BET ON THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS WL GUST ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH GREATER EXPOSURE TO DVLPG NNE WIND. WITH APRCH OF DRY RDG OVER MN THIS AFTN...EXPECT ANY MVFR CIGS TO RISE TO VFR ALONG WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB AVIATION...KC/AJ MARINE...AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1026 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. MILDER HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. 15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP DISPLAYS 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER LA/MS AND RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/MN. VERY STRONG 981 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC NW OF SAGUENAY OVER LAC SAINT-JEAN LAKE WHICH IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS IL THIS MORNING. AFTER DAWN LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH WNW WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ALOFT A VERY STRONG 517 DM 500 MB LOW WAS OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WHILE A 588 DM 500 MB HIGH WAS OVER AZ AND RIDGING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODELS LIKE THE NAM...RUC AND SREF MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DRIFTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY EAST OVER IL BY SUNSET. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY THROUGHOUT AND WILL ENSURE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. STILL HAVE A BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING SUPPORTING NW WINDS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WHICH ALLOWS NW WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP LATER IN THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6C BY SUNSET WITH COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL IL/IN BORDER. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH MILDEST READINGS IN THE WEST AND SW WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF LINCOLN AND LOWER 60S FROM LINCOLN SOUTH. HUETTL && .AVIATION... ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 HIGH PRES RDG FM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS IL TNGT AND BE LOCATED MI-GA BY 12Z THU. WLY/NWLY SFC WNDS AROUND 10 KT AFT 15Z TDY WILL BECOME LGT/VRBL BY 00Z THU. A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY CLDS THRU THIS TAF PD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 220 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 FEW FORECAST ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXTENT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTH ALONG EAST EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOS GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR HIGHS. DID TREND A BIT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO COOLER WEEKEND WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... NEWEST EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...WITH MORE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS DUE TO THE GFS MODELS PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...A FEATURE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN ECMWF INDICATES. HOWEVER...BOTH ARE SHOWING A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. SINCE THESE ISSUES ARE BEYOND THE EDITABLE FORECAST PERIOD...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GEELHART && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 730 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .UPDATE... RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT...WITH RETURNS THAT ONLY SIGNIFY FLURRIES AT BEST. 10Z AND 11Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW SHOW WHY...WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB...SATURATION AT THAT LEVEL...THEN DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5C. HARD TO SEE LAKE EFFECT REDEVELOPING SINCE THE AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO IS SO DRY WITH RESPECT TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURE...RESULTING IN SOMETHING SIMILAR TO AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILE. TAKING THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND SUBTRACTING THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING ACROSS RESULTS IN A SPREAD AROUND 25 DEGREES F. ALSO NOT HELPING LAKE EFFECT IS LOWERING INVERSIONS BEHIND THE SHRTWV THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAY STILL TAKE AWHILE TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH... AND GOING FORECAST HAS THAT WELL IN HAND. && .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE UPPER MI. RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK REASONABLE. TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH 925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE. FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND 900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHERLY WINDS IS AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT BOTH TAF SITES. CIGS RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR...BUT WILL CLIMB BY MID AFTERNOON TO VFR DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN MINNESOTA...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND THAT IS LLWS DEVELOPING AS THE TAF SITES GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && UPDATE...AJ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB AVIATION...AJ MARINE...AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT P/GRAD ACROSS THE CWFA WITH 3/HR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 MB OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WINDS ARE REMAINING W/LY IN STRONG LEE SIDE TROF AND AFTERNOON GUST STILL LOOK GOOD...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED BASED 12Z H85 WIND FIELDS. MAX TEMPS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK...BUT BUMPED UP A DEGREE BASED ON LATEST VALUES AND GOOD HANDLING BY THE RUC13. DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED UP A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL WITH BUFKIT HYDROLAPSES INDICATING A SLOWLY MOISTENING BL THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NGT...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THIS MORNING/S LOWS. I DON/T THINK A FREEZE WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN SPOTS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY. SO IT LUKS LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO SHUT OFF ALL THE PIEDMONT EXCEPT THE UPR SAVANNAH VALLEY (AT THIS TIME). THIS MEANS REGARDLESS OF MIN TEMPS THESE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...NO MORE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE SEASON IN THOSE COUNTIES. EVEN IF THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY DOES NOT REACH FREEZING THIS MORNING...TEMPS DO NOT LUK TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT (SO NO FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED). DEWPTS AND WNDS MAY SUPPORT FROST HOWEVER..SO A FROST ADVY MAY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE DAYSHIFT IF THE UPR SAVANNAH VLY DOES NOT FREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE E COAST THU AND CONTINUES MOVG E WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI WITH SF HIGH BASICALLY OVERHEAD. LOOK LIKE LIGHT WINDS AND MCLR SKIES BOTH DAYS SO THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMP FORECAST. AS THICKNESS INCREASES TEMPS WARM EACH DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS THU RANGING FROM THE L-M60S IN NE GA/UPSTATE SC TO AROUND 60 IN THE NC NW PIEDMONT AND MTN VALLEYS...WITH 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TREND CONTINUES FRI WITH M-U60S SW CWA...M60S N...AND U50S-M60S MTNS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THE COMMON THREAD KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SAT WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES S THROUGH THE AREA OR NOT BUT IN ANY CASE...HEIGHTS FALL SUN AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES E AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEG COOLER...DRY FROPA OR NOT. STAYED WITH HPC DRY FCST WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACRS OUR TERMINALS...AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE IS WINDS. WINDS CONT TO BE GUSTY AT KAVL...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...AS BL TRIES TO STABILIZE. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...WLY WINDS WILL CONT THRU THE PERIOD...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY) BY MIDDAY AND THRU THE AFTN. WINDS EVERYWHERE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. A DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY VFR WEATHER. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RB NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK SHORT TERM...RB LONG TERM...RB AVIATION...ARK/SBK sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 112 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS .UPDATE... RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DIMINISH LAKE EFFECT...WITH RETURNS THAT ONLY SIGNIFY FLURRIES AT BEST. 10Z AND 11Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SAW SHOW WHY...WITH AN INVERSION AT 850MB...SATURATION AT THAT LEVEL...THEN DRY AIR EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5C. HARD TO SEE LAKE EFFECT REDEVELOPING SINCE THE AIR COMING ACROSS THE LAKE OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO IS SO DRY WITH RESPECT TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURE...RESULTING IN SOMETHING SIMILAR TO AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILE. TAKING THE LAKE TEMPERATURE AND SUBTRACTING THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING ACROSS RESULTS IN A SPREAD AROUND 25 DEGREES F. ALSO NOT HELPING LAKE EFFECT IS LOWERING INVERSIONS BEHIND THE SHRTWV THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. CLOUDS MAY STILL TAKE AWHILE TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH... AND GOING FORECAST HAS THAT WELL IN HAND. && .DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO W CNTRL CANADA RESULTING IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO NRN UPPER MI WITH WINDS VEERING NRLY. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C WAS ONLY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LES...FAVORABLE UPSTREAM SFC-850 MB MOISTURE HAS HELPED SUSTAIN SCT -SHSN OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NE UPPER MI. RADAR SHOWED INTENSITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. MUCH DRIER AIR INTO FROM CMX-CYQT WESTWARD...PER IR IMAGERY AND OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR. TODAY...AS THE SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO NEAR 3K FT BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND END. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS. SO...GUIDANCE MAX READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S S AND WEST LOOK REASONABLE. TONIGHT...WITH WAA PATTERN TAKING OVER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH 06Z INTO THE MID 20S INLAND BUT BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST HALF AS BNDRY LAYER WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THU...GUSTY SW WINDS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AIDING MIXING ALONG WITH 925-900 MB TEMPS INTO THE 10C-14C SHOULD HELP PUSH MAX READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ERN CWA INTO THE 60-65 RANGE OVER THE W HALF...CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ETA GUIDANCE. FRI INTO SAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FROPA THROUGH UPPER MI FRI WITH TRANSITION TO NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW INT THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO. WITH A RELATIVELY SHALLOW COLD DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AND 900 MB TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND -3C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NO LAKE EFFECT PCPN IS EXPECTED. MAX READINGS FRI WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE COLDER AIR MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)... SCT VFR CLOUDS WITH LK EFFECT AT SAW INITIALLY...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS LK SUPERIOR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY LATE AFTN. ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE THROUGH THU MORNING WILL BE A SWATH OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS BOTH SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HR WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LLWS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING THU BEFORE INVERSION MIXES OUT AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS REACH THE SFC. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... LOOK FOR UP TO 30 KT NORTH WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY THE EAST HALF...TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. BEHIND THE RIDGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK UP TO 30 KT OUT OF THE SW BY THU MORNING ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ON CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KT THU NIGHT WHILE SWITCHING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SAT NIGHT...CAUSING SE TO SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTN AND EVENING...AGAIN ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && UPDATE...AJ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLB AVIATION...JLA MARINE...AJ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 246 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... LATEST MSAS SHOWS SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WI ZONES. DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LVL RIDGE. AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LIFT...AND LOWER COND PRESS DEFICITS...HAS MOVED EAST OF ARROWHEAD. LATEST RUC13 AND 88D VWP SHOW RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER NE MN ZONES. TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS INCREASING SFC PRESS GRADIENT OVER CWA AND EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.INTENSIFYING LOW OVER NRN SASK/MB MOVES EAST AND LLJ INCREASES TO 45/50KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN RESPONSE WOULD EXPECT MINS TO OCCUR AROUND 9PM TO MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN CWA BEFORE SLOW RISE OCCURS. ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS STEADY TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY AND MILD DAY TOMORROW AS MIXING LAYER INCREASES INTO HIGHER WINDS AT 3/4K DURING THE DAY. FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SFC BDRY WILL HAVE PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND WINDSHIFT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A PRONOUNCED COOLING WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THURSDAY. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WITHING MID LVL FLOW ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN PW SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HOWEVER FCST REMAINS DRY WITH INSUFFICIENT FORCING/MSTR.LATEST MSAS SHOWS SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM ARROWHEAD INTO NWRN WI ZONES. DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LVL RIDGE. AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LIFT...AND LOWER COND PRESS DEFICITS...HAS MOVED EAST OF ARROWHEAD. LATEST RUC13 AND 88D VWP SHOW RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER NE MN ZONES. EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO ERODE BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY 06Z SUNDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...BEFORE SPREADING ELSEWHERE BY 12Z. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...AS DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND PERSISTS FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE SFC CYCLONE MAY BECOME COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. && .AVIATION... VFR FLYING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS...A RATHER POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES AVERAGING AROUND 40KTS. ***NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE 30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAF FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR 30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (CIAO). THE 5 TAF FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE VISIT: WWW.AVIATIONS.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP && POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 58 36 51 / 0 0 10 10 INL 33 56 33 46 / 0 0 10 10 BRD 34 64 36 53 / 0 0 10 10 HYR 28 62 39 53 / 0 0 10 10 ASX 31 60 41 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. $$ CANNON/BETTWY mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 434 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 ...MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT... .SYNOPSIS... THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COOL AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... DEEP SFC LOW HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH PREVAILING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFTING FROM WLY TO NWLY AT 20Z. CLASSIC WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWER PATTERN WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 90 PERCENT THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. BASED ON 19Z RUC...THERE IS AN EMBEDDED 500MB JET MAX OF 50 KTS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH 00Z AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MODEST MID-LVL ASCENT THROUGH 00Z. THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE PREVAILING MOIST NWLY FLOW IS ALREADY BECOMING CONFINED TO THE MTNS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. OWING TO STRENGTH OF WLY FLOW...MOST OF THE OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY IN VERMONT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE...WITH KMVL AND KMPV REPORTING LIGHT SNOW THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. LATEST REPORTS INDICATE 6-8 INCHES NEAR JAY PEAK AND HAVE LEFT IN PLACE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS FAR N-CENTRAL VERMONT /ERN FRANKLIN AND ORLEANS COUNTIES/ THROUGH 30/04Z...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE PROBABLY LIMITED TO THE MTN PASSES AND NEARBY AREAS BASED ON LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND GROUND TRUTH REPORTS. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. RECEIVED A REPORT OF 5.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN STANNARD...AND SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT FORESEE LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AWAY FROM THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS MODERATELY STG WITH WLY SFC WINDS 10-15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ONLY A MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30F AT KBTV TO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND VT EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDUAL 500MB TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HRS...AND HAVE FCST JUST LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HGTS AND LOWERING DEEP-LAYER RH FIELDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE 1-2KFT ELEVATION BAND TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE/CT RIVER VALLEYS. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN IN THE VLYS INITIALLY...BUT SHOWERS MAY END BRIEFLY AS LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW 10-15 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA AFTER 01/04Z. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 428 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH...JUST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH FURTHER INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. HOWEVER...IN THE LOWS WAKE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECTING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOTICE TO USERS OF TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)...BEGINNING AT 0000 UTC ON NOVEMBER 5...2008...THE FORMAT FOR TAFS WILL CHANGE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BEGIN TO ISSUE TAFS USING A VALID DATE AND TIME GROUP IN THE FORECAST. ALL METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES WORLDWIDE WILL ALSO ISSUE THEIR TAF FORECASTS IN THIS NEW FORMAT. THIS IS BEING DONE TO ACCOMMODATE 30 HOUR TAF FORECASTS THAT WILL BE DONE FOR SELECT MAJOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS WORLDWIDE. THERE WILL BE 32 MAJOR U.S. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS FOR WHICH TAF FORECASTS WILL BE VALID FOR 30 HOURS. THIS FORMAT CHANGE IS BEING MANDATED BY THE INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION (ICAO). THE 6 TAF FORECASTS BEING DONE BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO BE VALID FOR 24 HOURS. TO SEE EXAMPLES OF THIS NEW FORMAT...PLEASE GO TO THE INTERNET WEB SITE LISTED BELOW. WWW.AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ004- 006>008-017-018. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ003-016. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...NEILES AVIATION...WGH/NEILES ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 442 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... CLR SKIES WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LVLS AT THE START OF TNGT WILL GIVE WAY TO A MODEST INCRS IN MID AND HI LVL MOISTR FROM THE W MAINLY OVER SRN PART OF FCST AREA LATE TNGT. THAT SHUD BE THE MAIN EFFECT OF APPCHG MID LVL SHRTWV WHICH WILL HAVE REALLY NOTHNG TO WORK WITH BLO THE HIR MID LVLS. WITH ALSO MODEST SRLY LO LVL FLOW CONTG TO DVLP WITH THE WARMING...LO TEMPS TNGT WILL BE QUITE A BIT MILDER THAN LAST NGTS LOWS...FROM A FEW DEGS TO 10 PLUS DEGS ABV FRZG. WNDS SHUD WIND UP 10 TO 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE NGT ESPLY LATE...MAYBE EVEN A LTL HIR LATE IN THE EXPOSED BUFFALO RDG AREA. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. WEAK S/W WL MOVE FM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU THU AFTN. ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOD WITH THIS FEATURE SO WL ONLY SEEM SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD INTO SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND THU. THIS CUD KEEP TEMPS FM MIXING COMPLETELY OUT FAR S...BUT STILL IN THE 60S TO NR 70 ACRS CWA. S/W WL BRING WEAK BACKDOOR CDFNT INTO CWA ON FRI....BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND BULK OF COOLER AIR REMAINING N AND E OF CWA...HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 60S. WEAK S/W WAVE WL FLATTEN RIDGE ON SAT AND ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT MORE CIRRUS INTO CWA BY AFTN. THIS WL LIKELY PRODUCE COOLER TEMPS ON SAT AND WL KEEP SAT THE COOLEST DAY THU THRU SUN. S/W IS FAIRLY WEAK AND DID CONSIDER PULLING POPS OUT ACRS NERN CWA SAT NITE BUT CUD STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES. WL LOWER POPS TO ONLY 20% FAR NE. SUN WL AGAIN SEE BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH RIDGE AXIS REACHING I29 BY SUN EVE. THIS WL KEEP CWA WARM...WITH WARMERST TEMPS W. OF COURSE HIGHS WL BE BASED ON HOW MUCH CI SPREADS NEWD OUT OF CNTRL ROCKIES AND THIS WL BE THE SAME PBLM ON MON. STILL...EVEN WITH CI...TEMPS WL BE WELL ABOVE NORM WITH LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW INCREASING SUN INTO MON. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR TUES WITH EC AND CANADIAN FURTHER N AND FASTER WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD INTO ND TUES NITE WHILE GFS HAS IT OVR NEB AT THE SAME TIME. IF GFS IS RIGHT THEN CUD ONCE AGAIN SEE WDSPRD RAIN ACRS CWA. IF EC OR CANADIAN IS RIGHT...THEN BULK OF RAIN WUD BE N OF CWA. SO WITH UNCERTAINTY WL KEEP POPS GOING MON NITE INTO TUES AND LATER FCSTS WL BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE EARLY NEXT. EITHER WAY...COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED TUES AND WED. && .AVIATION... VFR THRU 31/00Z AS DRY AIR AT ALL LVLS IS REPLACED BY A LTL MOISTR ONLY ABV 10K FT OR SO WHILE THE LWR LVLS STAY DRY. OUTSIDE THREAT FOR SOME LLWS AT FSD AND SUX AFTER ABOUT 6Z. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC ARE INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 120 FEET AGL WHILE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ /WILLIAMS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 328 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT ALL THE SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. CURRENT RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA... RELATIVELY MINOR TEMP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF SUNNY SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF RIDGE HAS LEAD TO TEMPS TODAY TO REACH INTO THE 70S. GIVEN THE HIGHER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE WARMER WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THIS TROUGH IS RATHER WEAK SO PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NIL AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES EWD AND A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE PANHANDLES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MINOR COOL DOWN ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CLOUD COVER AND GOOD DIURNAL MIXING...TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR THE TRICK OR TREATERS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS AND 110 KT JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE 70S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES ...LEFT GOING FORECAST DRY. AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE A MILD START TO NOVEMBER...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS TOWARD MIDWEEK. CLK && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVEN LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS. WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH HEADING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THEN AS SOME AREAS MAY SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. CLK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 47 80 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 BEAVER OK 43 78 39 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 BOISE CITY OK 44 79 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 BORGER TX 52 80 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 BOYS RANCH TX 44 82 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 CANYON TX 45 82 43 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLARENDON TX 48 80 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 5 DALHART TX 38 80 41 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 GUYMON OK 42 79 45 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 HEREFORD TX 45 82 42 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 LIPSCOMB TX 44 79 41 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 5 PAMPA TX 51 77 53 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 5 SHAMROCK TX 43 79 47 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 5 WELLINGTON TX 44 81 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 11/05 tx