FXUS62 KILM 012002
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
255 PM EST THU APR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW CORNER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT THESE WILL QUICKLY FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING VERY EARLY THIS 
EVENING AND SO WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY ON 
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWING THROUGH HERE ON FRI. MAY 
BE ONE MORE GLANCING BLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW FINALLY PULLS ENE.

BUT OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH THIS 
WEEKEND. AND YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS ONE MAY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE N TO 
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND THAT IS WHAT I PLAN TO DO...BUT IT 
WILL BE A CLOSE SKIRT. WILL GO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 
DEG BELOW NORMAL WITH PERSISTENT TROUGH JUST UNWILLING TO CALL IT 
QUITS.

HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BULLDOZE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST 
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUN. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD 
OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE WEEK. LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND AT NIGHT 
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GET VERY CHILLY FOR APRIL. RIGHT NOW PLAN ON 
GOING NO LOWER THAN MID TO UPPER 30S. STILL...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY 
FROST IN THE COLDEST SPOTS SUN NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE ON TUE AND WEAK RETURN FLOW 
SETS UP. SW WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK 
UP TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WED.

NEXT IN SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO SWING THROUGH LATE ON THU. 
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT 
BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TO OUR S. 
&&

.MARINE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 
REGION THRU FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP A GOOD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CAROLINAS. SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT 
RANGE...HIGHEST OUT AT 20 NM FROM SHORE. AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS 
EAST AND OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WIND 
TRAJECTORIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS SPEEDS FALL INTO THE 
10-15 KT RANGE.

NEXT SURGE WILL COME DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A 
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SPEEDS SHOULD REACH 20 KT...POSSIBLY 
EVEN MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NC WATERS. WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE ROLLS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WILMINGTON     41  62  42  64 /  10  40  20  10
FLORENCE       41  60  42  66 /  10  30  10  10
LUMBERTON      40  60  40  64 /  10  40  10  10
MYRTLE BEACH   42  62  43  65 /  10  30  10  10
&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: TRA