Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
000 FXUS65 KTWC 150348 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 848 PM MST SAT MAR 14 2009 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A STRONG WARMING TREND. && .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. I ALREADY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ABOUT AN HOUR AND HALF AGO. STILL KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. I ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND UPDATED THE POINT FORECAST MATRIX PRODUCT AS WELL. AS OF 03Z...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 60S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 61 DEGS. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AGAIN...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...PRECIP ENDING FROM W-E THROUGH AROUND 06Z...AND CLOUDS BECOMING FEW-SCATTERED MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AFT 06Z SUN. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU 12Z SUNDAY THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DURING THE 18Z-02Z PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO FINISH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK FOR STRONG WARMING TREND...BACK TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE CLIMO BY WEDNESDAY. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ MOLLERE WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
