AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 925 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CNTRL GA WITH GENERALLY ELY FLO OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS RISING SLOWLY FROM AM LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S. OFF SHORE BUOYS INDICATE WINDS OVER EASTERN WATERS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND RUC40 FORECASTS A FURTHER SLIGHT INCREASE... THUS ON UPDATE WILL ISSUE SCEC FOR EASTERN WATERS. ZONES ON TRACK ...NO CHANGES PLANNED. .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TIL SUNSET TODAY ALL ZONES...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. && $$ AFD PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ******************************************************** .SYNOPSIS...SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NW OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET IS RAPIDLY PUMPING IN A FAIRLY THICK SHIELD OF CIRRUS FROM THE SW...AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVERNIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE AVERAGING LIGHT OUT OF THE N. && .SHORT TERM...AFTER A GENERALLY QUIET DAY TODAY...A VERY COMPLEX FCST IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE LARGE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR OUR CWA...WITH THE GFS STILL RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ETA IN GETTING THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. THEREFORE PLAN ON USING A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH WILL PUT THE TIMING CLOSE TO THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THE 2. ALSO...WITH A VERY QUICK WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE COOL WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT HIGH A BIT FURTHER TO THE N...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC PRECIP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE WELL TO THE N OF THE CWA. THUS...DO NOT BELIEVE A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...AS THE CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A POTENTIAL 1-3" RAINFALL FROM THE COLD FRONT. FINALLY...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA BY 12 UTC ON SATURDAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. && .MARINE...IT MAY VERY WELL COME DOWN TO A TIMING ISSUE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ETA...BUT AT LEAST A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT. CURRENT PLAN IS TO RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...IT MAY END UP BEING A CLOSE CALL TODAY WITH ALL OF THE CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT STILL FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. && .LONG TERM...CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS OK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 64 46 72 59 / 00 10 20 40 PFN 64 51 71 61 / 00 10 30 50 DHN 59 46 68 58 / 00 20 40 60 ABY 59 45 68 57 / 00 20 40 50 VLD 63 45 72 59 / 00 10 20 30 CTY 67 48 75 61 / 00 00 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TIL SUNSET TODAY ALL ZONES...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST. && $$ GOULD fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 802 PM MST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THAT DO NOT HAVE UP TO TWO INCHES FOR TONIGHT...I WILL BE RAISING IT TO THAT VALUE. I BASE THIS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA AND RUC FORECAST OF UPPER LOW POSITION. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 530 PM MST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...HAVE ALLOWED WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER... VERY COMPLICATED AND MIXED BAG OF WEATHER IS OCCURING RIGHT NOW. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE STARTED TO REPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME SNOW. WOULD EXPECT AS LONG AS WE HAVE DRY SLOT OVER AREA...WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING FOG. RUC SOUNDINGS ARE KIND OF HINTING AT THIS BUT I DO NOT BELIEVE THEY ARE CATCHING THE SEVERITY OF THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND FOG. SINCE WIND IS NOT CAUSING MUCH BLOWING SNOW AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TO...WILL REMOVE THE BLOWING SNOW FROM THE FORECAST. IF MODELS ARE RIGHT...SNOW SHOULD PICK UP AFTER 06Z. AM SEEING A HINT OF THIS NOW AT LIMON WHICH HAS STARTED TO REPORT HEAVY SNOW. WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND FOG GETS MORE INTENSE/WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED SNOW...MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 955 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE...APPRS AS THO SOME MSTR FM MELTING SNW HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDR SHARP INVRSN...RSLTG IN XTNSV CLDCVR W OF W CHO-IAD-APG LINE. FEW HI LVL CLDS E OF THERE. WL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS. LIKELY TO TWEAK MAXT IN CLDY AREA DWN A NOTCH...AND UP A NOTCH IN THE E. RUC40-META AGREE IN BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO AREA TDA. COMBINED W/ DWNSLOPE WND...W/ DECREASE CLDS THRU DAY. FEW OTR CHGS TO FCST ANTICIPATED. -HTS && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM(TODAY-TONIGHT)... THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ONLY SOME SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. TEMPS TODAY SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S E OF THE BLUE RIDGE MID-UPPER 30S WEST. COLDER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRES. && .LONGER TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING TRACKS NORTHEAST. MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO OVERRIDE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW INITIALLY TO MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES THE PRECIP WILL SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN RAIN. ANY LINGERING PRECIP COULD TURN BACK TO SNOW SATURDAY MORNIN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAN TUESDAY'S. MODELS ARE GENERATING A LOT MORE PRECIP. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THIS TO BE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN SNOW. WILL ISSUE AN (WINTER STORM OUTLOOK). ONCE THE LOW EXITS ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS COULD MEAN ANOTHER QUICK SHOW OF WINTER PRECIP. && .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ROSA/CPW md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 422 PM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN OTHER THAN TEMPS/CLDS WILL BE SNOW CHCS AND ACCUMS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH SRN LWR MI. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP UPR TROF AND CLOSED LOW OVER SRN ROCKIES WITH WK RDGG INTO GREAT LAKES. PLUME OF MOSTLY MID-LVL MSTR LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AHD OF TROF AND CLOSED LOW AS SHRTWV/SPEED MAX DIGGING INTO CA BAJA AND BASE OF TROF. AT SFC...HIGH PRES IS CNTRD OVER WI AND NRN IL WITH LOW PRES OVR CO AND ASSOC WMFNT EXTENDING INTO NRN TX AND OK PNHDL. TONIGHT...TEMPS MAY BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRES RDG MOVES OVER UPR MI...WINDS WILL BE LGT AND SKIES GENLY CLEAR WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RAD COOLING THIS EVENING. QUESTION OVRNGT WILL BE HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUD TO SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER AREA...WITH UPR RDG GENLY IN PLACE. MODELS SNDGS SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS LATE SO DID BUMP UP MIN TEMPS SOME FROM PREV FCST...ALTHOUGH KEPT LOW ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO GUIDANCE. THU...SOME FILTERED SUN EARLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM FAIRLY COLD OVRNGT MINS. THERE WILL BE MORE WAA CLD COVER BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHRTWV AS UPR RDG SLIDES EAST. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO NGM MOS GUIDANCE ON MAX TEMPS AS IT LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM HIGHS AND HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL OF LATE. THU NIGHT INTO FRI...MDLS SHOW SHRTWV CONTINUING TO LIFT NE THROUGH WI AND LWR MI WITH ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTING INTO SRN LWR MI BY 12Z FRI. 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06-15Z AND THIS LOOKS TO BE WINDOW OF BEST LIFT. 2-3 G/KG MIXR ADVECTING IN OVR SERN COUNTIES COULD YIELD 2-6" INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SNOW OVR SCNTRL AND SERN COUNTIES. GIVEN ENE FLOW ACROSS FROZEN BAY OF GREEN BAY EXPECT VERY LTL IN WAY OF ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW INTO MNM COUNTY. LOOK FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY IN AFT WITH LOSS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS SHRTWV AND ASSOC SFC LOW LIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO GEORGIAN BAY BY 00Z. COOL CYCLONIC NNE FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -12 TO 14C BY LATE FRI SHOULD KEEP LES GOING OVER NCNTRL AND WRN ZONES WITH ANOTHER 1-2" LOCAL ACCUMS THERE. FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...NNE FLOW CONTINUES WITH 850 MB TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -15 TO -16C ALTHOUGH BCMS INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND BACKS MORE NW SAT AFT AND EVNG. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ZONES FOR LES WITH CHC POPS TO SOUTH. EXTENDED...(SUN THROUGH WED)...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR TROF LIFTING INTO NE STATES ON SUN WHILE WK RDGG REPLACES IT FROM NRN PLAINS. W-SW CBL FLOW INDICATED BY GFS WITH 850 TEMPS LINGERING AROUND -10 TO -12C WILL FAVOR ONLY KEWEENAW PENINSULA OR NRN ONT COUNTY FOR SOME LIGHT LES WITH FLURRIES REST OF NRN TIER. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BTWN OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH TIMING OF NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV. HOWEVER CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATE SHRTWV WILL DROP DOWN OVER AREA SOMETIME ON MON SO WILL KEEP IN CHC OF -SN FOR ENTIRE CWA ON MON. WITH UPR TROF STILL LINGERING OVER AREA AND GOOD CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW BEHIND EXITING SFC LOW (PER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES) HAVE KEPT IN CHC OF -SN OR -SHSN FOR ENTIRE CWA TUE INTO WED. MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1107 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ISSUES FOR AN UPDATE...MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE. LOWS THIS MORNING STARTED OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. CURRENT READINGS ARE STILL IN THE TEENS/NEAR 20F DESPITE FULL SUN THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...WITH WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST BUILDS OVER THE STATE. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING 14Z LAMP ARE ALL 2-3F TOO WARM EVEN AS OF 15Z...AND GIVEN THE STABLE PROFILES OBSERVED/FORECAST AND CURRENT READINGS...WILL DROP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. OTHER QUESTION IS WITH CLOUD COVER. THIN CIRRUS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER...WITH THICKER DECK JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO THE CWA...WITH GENERALLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS CONFLUENCE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC. THIS WOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS INTO THE CWA...BUT STILL WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BLOCKING THE SUN MUCH TODAY. SUNNY/POSSIBLY MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS TO COVER IT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && BRAVENDER .DISCUSSION...145 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 PRECIPITATION LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DETERMINING WHAT TYPE. LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVEN INDICATING A PACIFIC MOISTURE/SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOUTHERN POLAR STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE PLAINS...AS PHASING OCCURS WITH SUBTROPICAL JET. ETA/GFS MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IMPLYING BOTH CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BEING TAPPED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPORTANT PLAYER WAS LOCATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA/SASKATCHEWAN. AS TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY...THIS NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM NEEDED TO BE STRONGER AND DIVE FARTHER SOUTH BY FRIDAY FOR US TO GET MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW...ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO DRAW/LIFT CLOSER TO THE CWA. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY. THE PROBLEM NOW LIES IN THE EXACT SURFACE STORM TRACK...WHICH LOOKS TO BE NEAR/OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHERE THE 700 MB LOW/DRY SLOT TRACKS ON FRIDAY. THE LARGE HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RETREATING TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE LOW TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL...AS WE LOSE OUR SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...IT WILL CONTAIN LOTS OF WARM AIR IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE. LATEST EUROPEAN WAS INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH CHICAGO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 0 C DEGREES AT 850 MB REACHING I-69 BY 12Z FRIDAY. 00Z ETA MODEL IS ALSO IN THE SAME BALLPARK...WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY'S STORM...IF THE LOW TRACK IS THROUGH CHICAGO/LAKE MICHIGAN...WE WILL NOT BE SEEING MUCH SNOW AT ALL (WITH EVEN SOME PLAIN OLD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA). PREFERENCE FOR THIS STORM RIGHT NOW IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE UKMET. THIS IS FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES AS WELL. WWE SURFACE TRACK IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS TRACK. WILL BE ADDING A WINTRY MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IF GFS VERIFIES...POTENTIAL FOR A 3 TO 6 INCHES SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO OUT WITH A FOURTH PERIOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. AS BEEN THE CASE WITH OTHER STORMS THIS WINTER...CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO OR TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL/MAY MESS UP THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WITH THE DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY...WILL THUS ONLY BE CARRYING 50 PERCENT POPS FOR FRIDAY. FOR TODAY... BEEN ADVERTISING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR A COUPLE OF DAY'S NOW. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURE AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THIS LOOKS GREAT. ENJOY THE DAY...BECAUSE WE ALL KNOW SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS IN MICHIGAN DURING THE WINTER ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. HAVE NOTED THE FLURRIES AND LAKE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING...NOT REALLY CONCERNED WITH THOSE CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO THE CWA. WILL BE CARRYING MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MAXES. TONIGHT... GOOD RADIATING NIGHT IN STORE. STILL DON'T SEE HOW THE THUMB REGION WILL NOT BE ZERO OR BELOW ZERO (UNLESS THERE IS A EASTERLY WIND AND LOW STRATUS OFF OF LAKE HURON). TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH ARE BELOW GUIDANCE. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH CIRRUS STREAMING IN...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE WEST OF EASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CARRY LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WELL BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS. .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) SF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1051 AM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE KEWEENAW AND IN THE EAST. THOUGH ACCUMS AT THIS POINT ARE MEAGER...WITH VERY DRY AIR COMING IN (SEE 12Z INL RAOB) AND INVERSIONS CRASHING (AROUND 3KFT PER ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS)...THERE WILL BE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CONVERGENT W TO NW FLOW PERSISTS. RECENT SPOTTER CALL NEAR MELSTRAND CONFIRMS SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER FLUFF...AND WEB CAMS IN CMX AREA STILL SHOW REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SHSN/BLSN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND...BUT WILL KEEP SCT SHSN WORDING GOING FOR THE KEWEENAW THROUGH THE AFTN (RATHER THAN JUST FLURRIES) AS THE CONVERGENCE THERE MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH THE BACKING FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN LAKE. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE MSUNNY W/ DECREASED WINDS AS THE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BKN SC OVER MARQUETTE/BARAGA CTYS ERODING QUICKLY NOW...AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH. W/ CONFLUENT FLOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WRN LAKES...ANY HIGH CLOUD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTN. H5 HEIGHTS NOW RISING...AND ETA/RUC SHOWS A 100+M RISE OVER THE U P FROM 12-00Z. H8 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR -10C WEST/-14C EAST THIS AFTN. STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND COLD MORNING TEMPS (WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH) WILL LIMIT AFTN MIXING...BUT W/ PLENTY OF SUN WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HIGHS IN UPR TEENS/AROUND 20F LOOK GOOD. MINOR UPDATE COMING SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER/SHSN WORDING. && MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JKL mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 915 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION HAS QUICKLY TRANSITIONED TO SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM SPRINGFIELD SOUTHWARD. RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SLEET WAS FALLING NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER NEAR THE BRANSON AREA AT 03Z. SNOW WAS JUST BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS MID MISSOURI WHERE THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SATURATE. INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT THAT THE MAIN FETCH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAD FALLEN NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER WITH 3 INCHES REPORTED IN BRANSON AT 02Z BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO SLEET. THE THERMAL PROFILE ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AT SPRINGFIELD INDICATED THAT IT WOULD BE AWHILE BEFORE A TRANSITION IN PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50KT JET AT 850 MB HAS QUICKLY CHANGED THAT. THE LITTLE ROCK SOUNDING SHOWED PLUS 5 DEGREES AT 850 MB. 00Z MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC DO NOT SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THIS RAPID WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OBVIOUSLY THE ONSET OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL HAMPER EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THIS OF CONVECTION HAD WORKED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ELEVATED INSTABILITY. I WILL INCLUDE CONVECTION INCLUDE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN THE LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING OUT OF NORTH TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT ICE TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION YET TO COME. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAINED MIXED. SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI IN AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 6 INCHES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ACROSS MID MISSOURI. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS COMBINATION OF SLEET && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AS A MIX OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS IFR CEILINGS LESS THAN A 1000 FEET CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. .KS...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY FOR ALL 3 COUNTIES. $$ FOSTER / CRAMER mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 915 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGES PLANNED AS FAR AS HEADLINES ARE CONCERNED DESPITE SLOW START TO SATURATION. ONLY LIGHT DUSTING REPORTS HAVE COME IN ACROSS THE CWA. SOME AREAS OF FZDZ BEING REPORTED MAINLY ALONG AND MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. 00Z MODEL DATA STILL SHOWING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED BY 12Z IN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 300MB JET STREAK. STILL LOOKS TO BE A LONG LIVED EVENT WITH DEFORMATION BAND ACROSS AREA INTO LATE THURSDAY AND SO WILL KEEP WARNING AND ADVISORY THROUGH THU NIGHT. GRIFFIS && .PREV DISCUSSION... 240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPENDING WINTER STORM AND WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW TO FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE EVERYONE SATURATES LATER THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INITIAL PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE A LAYER OF DRIER AIR...MUCH DRIER THAN THE MODELS ANTICIPATED...AND THUS IT'S TAKING ADDITIONAL TIME TO SATURATE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON THOUGH INDICATED THAT SNOW WAS BEGINNING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS AROUND 1 MILE...BUT OVERALL 3 TO 5 MILES WHERE SNOW WAS OCCURRING. BELIEVE THAT THE RUC/NGM MAY BE ONTO A TREND THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO FULLY SATURATE BEFORE THE SNOW COMMENCES AREAWIDE FOR THE DURATION BY MID TO LATE EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. AFTER THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE'RE LEFT BEHIND IN A BROAD DEFORMATION BAND WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE SNOWING...BUT TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW AS WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO THE LENGTH OF SNOW OCCURRING...SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD. PLAN TO RUN THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH A SWATH AROUND 6 INCHES FROM BEATRICE TO TO NORFOLK...WITH PERHAPS 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. WINDS THROUGH THE EVENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FROM THE EAST INITIALLY BUT SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS DON'T REALLY PICK UP TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THAT TIME, THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER. WITH REGARD TO OUR CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES...WE INTEND TO LEAVE THEM INTACT AT THIS TIME. THIS AMOUNTS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AND A WINTER STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL IMPACT COULD BE LOWER WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION...ALLOWING ROAD CREWS TO KEEP UP WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN ANOTHER INCH OR SO ON THE TAIL END. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STILL EDGES INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE FORECAST...MID WEEK...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AND HAVE LEFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. DEWALD && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEZ011-012-016-017 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .IA...WINTER STORM WARNING IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && $$ GRIFFIS ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 240 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPENDING WINTER STORM AND WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW TO FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ONCE EVERYONE SATURATES LATER THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS COLORADO WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INITIAL PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE A LAYER OF DRIER AIR...MUCH DRIER THAN THE MODELS ANTICIPATED...AND THUS IT'S TAKING ADDITIONAL TIME TO SATURATE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON THOUGH INDICATED THAT SNOW WAS BEGINNING IN SOME AREAS...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS AROUND 1 MILE...BUT OVERALL 3 TO 5 MILES WHERE SNOW WAS OCCURRING. BELIEVE THAT THE RUC/NGM MAY BE ONTO A TREND THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO FULLY SATURATE BEFORE THE SNOW COMMENCES AREAWIDE FOR THE DURATION BY MID TO LATE EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD. AFTER THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WE'RE LEFT BEHIND IN A BROAD DEFORMATION BAND WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT...BUT NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE SNOWING...BUT TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW AS WE SAW WITH THE PREVIOUS STORM THIS PAST WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO THE LENGTH OF SNOW OCCURRING...SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES STILL LOOK GOOD. PLAN TO RUN THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WITH A SWATH AROUND 6 INCHES FROM BEATRICE TO TO NORFOLK...WITH PERHAPS 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. WINDS THROUGH THE EVENT WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FROM THE EAST INITIALLY BUT SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT WINDS DON'T REALLY PICK UP TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT AT THAT TIME, THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER. WITH REGARD TO OUR CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES...WE INTEND TO LEAVE THEM INTACT AT THIS TIME. THIS AMOUNTS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AND A WINTER STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL IMPACT COULD BE LOWER WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION...ALLOWING ROAD CREWS TO KEEP UP WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN ANOTHER INCH OR SO ON THE TAIL END. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT STILL EDGES INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATE IN THE FORECAST...MID WEEK...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AND HAVE LEFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEZ011-012-016-017 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .IA...WINTER STORM WARNING IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && $$ DEWALD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 815 PM MST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO CENTRAL WY/CO. WATER VAPOUR HAD UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST CORNER OF CO...MOVING LITTLE THIS EVENING. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAD JET STREAK DIVING ON BACK SIDE OF LOW ACROSS NV/UT...WHICH SHOULD BE THE KICK THAT MOVES THE UPPER LOW EAST THURSDAY. INITIAL SPOKE OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRODUCED A SKIFF TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS SOUTH IF I-90 THIS EVENING. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS WARMING TOPS AND SUBSEQUENT LESSENING OF RADAR RETURNS. 00Z KUNR/LBF/DNR SOUNDINGS QUITE SATURATED. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION NOT CONDUCIVE TO DENDRITES...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SPOTTERS REPORTS AND PEEK OUT WINDOW. THIS HAS CERTAINLY CUT DOWN POTENTIAL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR FORECAST UPDATE. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT 00Z ETA/RUC TRENDS. THIS INCLUDES WANING -SN OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF ENHANCED LIFT/SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CWA FROM MT/WY. THIS BAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. FORECAST PROFILE SUGGESTS DENDRITES WILL AGAIN BE HARD PRESSED TO DOMINATE...BUT 2-3C COOLER THAN TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT A BIT MORE SNOW THURSDAY. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILLS/FOOTHILLS GIVEN FROUDE NUMBERS. WILL TWEAK SOME THINGS IN CURRENT FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT EXPECTATION...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES FORESEEN. WILL THROW IN SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE WE HAVE CHANCE POPS PER DISCUSSION WITH KBYZ. .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. $$ HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 942 PM EST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM MIDDLE TN TO SE TN...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE RULE OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN BEFORE DAYBREAK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SE TN...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE LOOKS FINE. I DON'T SEE MUCH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION REACHING VERY FAR NE OF A CSV TO TYS LINE UNTIL GENERALLY AFTER 15-16Z THURSDAY. LATEST RUC AND NGM MODEL RUNS SUPPPORT THIS...SO THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE THREAT OF ANY WINTRY MIX FOR SWRN VA AND EXTREME NE TN...PROVIDED THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT REACH THOSE AREAS ANY SOONER. WILL CHECK TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAINST 03Z OBSERVATIONS...BUT OTHERWISE AN EVENING UPDATE IS NOT PLANNED. THE NPW FOR A WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM EST (03Z)...AND THIS IS ONLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS POINT. NOTE: THE WIND ADVISORY TEXT WAS CORRECTED IN THE UPDATE AT 955 PM TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY TO BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NOT FOR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AS THE ORIGINAL NPWMRX PRODUCT INDICATED. SORRY FOR ANY CONFUSION THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA, TN 35 50 48 57 / 20 90 100 80 KNOXVILLE, TN 32 46 43 55 / 10 80 100 90 BRISTOL, TN 28 45 39 56 / 0 80 90 100 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 47 44 56 / 10 80 100 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ060>061. TN...WIND ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TNZ018...TNZ041...TNZ043...TNZ045...TNZ047...TNZ072...TNZ074... TNZ087...TNZ102. VA...NONE. && $$ TG tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UDPATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 942 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH FOR SAME AREA. SEVERE TRW WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM. 42 .UPDATE... 757 PM CST... WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP...TEMP...AND WIND TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE PRECIP WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LEAVING THE BIG BEND AREA WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO VEER THEM TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING DID SHOW GOOD WARMING IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 670 AND 870 MB. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES...AND ADVECTION IS FROM A REGION WITH SIMILAR TEMPS...SO WE EXPECT READINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE CLOSE BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE ANY PROBLEMS OCCUR. 42 && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... WILL END THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07Z...BUT WE WILL STILL BE IFR IN DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING MID MORNING THURSDAY. 59 && DISCUSSION... LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS/KGRK 88DS SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A POWERFUL UPPER JET MAX OF 120-140 KTS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA/AVN/RUC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS /AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM/ DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ALLOWING A COLD SFC HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JUST A BIT FOR THIS FORECAST...AS CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THUS...WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST SPOTS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AS SFC PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY... AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGING THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 WACO, TX 44 62 39 42 / 90 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 38 50 33 36 / 90 20 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 39 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 41 56 37 39 / 90 20 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 43 60 39 41 / 90 20 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 45 64 40 43 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 928 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA...AND AREA MOSAIC RADARS SHOW THE BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AT 0315Z. THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ROUGHLY OVER THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WE WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. THERE MAY ALSO STILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/POSSIBLY THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK AND EVEN SOME DENSE FOG HAS FORMED BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE LATEST RUC MODEL PROGS BRING THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTO THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 05Z...SO WE WILL ADD A MENTION OF FOG THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE ONLY SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WIND AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE MADE. UPDATED PRODUCTS SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY BEFORE 04Z. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 757 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP...TEMP...AND WIND TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE PRECIP WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LEAVING THE BIG BEND AREA WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO VEER THEM TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING DID SHOW GOOD WARMING IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 670 AND 870 MB. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES...AND ADVECTION IS FROM A REGION WITH SIMILAR TEMPS...SO WE EXPECT READINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE CLOSE BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE ANY PROBLEMS OCCUR. 42 && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... WILL END THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07Z...BUT WE WILL STILL BE IFR IN DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING MID MORNING THURSDAY. 59 && DISCUSSION... LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS/KGRK 88DS SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A POWERFUL UPPER JET MAX OF 120-140 KTS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA/AVN/RUC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS /AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM/ DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ALLOWING A COLD SFC HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JUST A BIT FOR THIS FORECAST...AS CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THUS...WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST SPOTS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AS SFC PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY... AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGING THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 WACO, TX 44 62 39 42 / 90 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 38 50 33 36 / 90 20 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 39 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 41 56 37 39 / 90 20 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 43 60 39 41 / 90 20 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 45 64 40 43 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 740 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... SURFACE WINDS WERE BACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES SPREADING WEST IN WAKE OF WIND SHIFT. VISIBILITIES WERE ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 AND 1/8 AT KCDS AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY...WITH PHONE CALLS TO THE NORTH REPORTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS. DOWNTOWN LUBBOCK STILL HAD GOOD VSBY AT 0130Z...BUT TOWER CAM CLEARLY SHOWS FOG BANK IMPINGING ON THE CITY FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. RUC KEEPS SURFACE TROF FURTHER WEST THAN ETA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE USED IT AS GUIDANCE TO POSITION A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SAVE BAILEY...COCHRAN...YOAKUM AND TERRY COUNTIES WHERE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HANG ON. OTHERWISE...AREA OF PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. RADARS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION INDICATE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY GENERALLY EAST OF A FRIONA TO LEVELLAND TO TAHOKA LINE. && $$ 13 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 515 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... WILL END THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07Z...BUT WE WILL STILL BE IFR IN DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING MID MORNING THURSDAY. 59 && LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS/KGRK 88DS SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A POWERFUL UPPER JET MAX OF 120-140 KTS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA/AVN/RUC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS /AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM/ DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ALLOWING A COLD SFC HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JUST A BIT FOR THIS FORECAST...AS CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THUS...WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST SPOTS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AS SFC PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY... AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGING THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 WACO, TX 44 62 39 42 / 90 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 38 50 33 36 / 90 20 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 39 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 41 56 37 39 / 90 20 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 43 60 39 41 / 90 20 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 45 64 40 43 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 503 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .UPDATE... SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING LINE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN LFQ OF H25 120 KT JET. ANOTHER H25 JETLET TRAVERSING NORTHERN MEXICO ATTM...THE NOSE OF WHICH IS DENOTED ON SATELLITE BY ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR AND IR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING BACK TO THE RIO GRANDE... ALTHOUGH NOT SAMPLED WELL AT THIS RANGE...CONSISTING OF LIGHT RAIN BELOW 4500 FT AND LIGHT SNOW ABOVE THIS LEVEL. A FEW PHONE CALLS YIELDED LESS THAN 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATED IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WESTWARD TO VALENTINE. IT APPEARS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS MORE. WILL SEND A ZONE UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE. WILL ADD LIGHT SNOW TO THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND POINTS WEST OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THINK PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR LESS...SO WILL NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY ATTM. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO NOTED NEAR ROSWELL IN THE LAST HOUR. CHECKING THE LATEST RUC/MESOETA YIELDED A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CANNOT COUNT OUT A -TSRA OR TWO SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THUNDER TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...GUADALUPES...AND SOUTHWEST TO THE VAN HORN AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY OUT ABOVE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWFA THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF COAST WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL BAROCLINTY EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE NET EFFECT HERE WILL BE TO LOWER WESTERLY WINDS SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT GIVEN A WEAKER THAN EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE TROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN CWFA BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER UVV EARLY THIS EVENING AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THEREBY PLACING THE AREA BENEATH THE ASCENDING BRANCH OF THE THERMALLY INDIRECT TRANSVERSE AGEO CIRC. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL BAROCLINTY WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SYNCING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS. AND THIS ALONG WITH DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING...THE BEST WE COULD HOPE FOR WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. AFTER 06Z OR SO...LAYER DIV Q PROGS SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER DVV ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING SHOULD END OUR PRECIP CHANCES...SUCH AS THEY ARE. OVERALL...INHERITED GRIDS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR NUDGING WAS NEEDED. HAVE TWEAKED WINDS AROUND SOME TO REFLECT THE WEAK LOW FORECAST OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED WINDS A BIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PBL WINDS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A TOUCH OVER GUIDANCE. LASTLY HAVE RAISED DEWPOINT GRIDS SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DRY BIAS OF LATE. .LONG TERM... FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW. ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH CAUSING THE TROUGH TO LINGER OVER OUR CWA SOMEWHAT TOMORROW NIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...COLD SURFACE AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR PERMIAN BASIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH...AND COLD TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SUPPORT THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SOME DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD-COVER. CAA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COOL AS WELL AS DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS MOVE IN. WE MAY HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT WILL NOT BE DEALING WITH MID OR UPPER CLOUDS HOLDING WARMTH IN. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGING INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVER OUR AREA AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD-COVER INCREASES TOO. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE. HAVE ONLY ADDED SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW AS THE ECMWF DIGS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS WHICH COULD SLIDE THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF US AS IT PASSES BY REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE MERGING WITH YET MORE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA...AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK AS WE WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF RIDGING && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 40 57 27 47 / 10 0 20 0 CARLSBAD NM 33 49 25 51 / 10 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 42 65 35 56 / 10 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 37 59 30 50 / 10 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 29 43 25 43 / 10 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 32 51 23 48 / 0 0 10 0 MARFA TX 28 46 25 45 / 10 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 36 56 29 48 / 10 0 10 0 ODESSA TX 33 56 28 48 / 10 0 10 0 WINK TX 35 58 26 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 70/20 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 325 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS/KGRK 88DS SHOWS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A POWERFUL UPPER JET MAX OF 120-140 KTS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA/AVN/RUC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS /AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR UVM/ DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ALLOWING A COLD SFC HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JUST A BIT FOR THIS FORECAST...AS CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THUS...WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST SPOTS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AS SFC PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY... AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGING THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 WACO, TX 44 62 39 42 / 90 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 38 50 33 36 / 90 20 0 0 DENTON, TX 40 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 39 53 34 37 / 90 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 41 55 36 39 / 90 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 41 56 37 39 / 90 20 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 43 60 39 41 / 90 20 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 45 64 40 43 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 65/DD tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE NEXT SNOW MAKER FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TOTALS...HEADLINES? 12Z ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS RATHER CLOSE WITH THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE SFC LOW TO EFFECT THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI...COMING CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLUTION. GFS/S LOW LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND STRONG DUE TO CONVECTION IT PRODUCES. QPF VERY SIMILAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER...WITH BOTH MODELS DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW ON THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. TRENDS LOOK GOOD AND LENDS CONFIDENCE TO THE SOLUTIONS AND THE FORECAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...88-D IMAGERY INDICATING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN...ADVANCING NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD...LOW LEVEL WARNING. MEANWHILE ACROSS WI AND NORTHERN ILL...AND PUSHING INTO EASTERN MN AND EASTERN IA...EAST WINDS WERE KEEPING THE REGION DRY. THIS WAS THANKS TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HANGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH...ALONG WITH SFC/NEAR SFC EASTERLY WINDS...SHOULD KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING SATURATED TONIGHT...AND FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD THEN KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...AND OFF TO THE WEST. 500 MB RIDGING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH WORKS INTO THE PLAIN STATES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EASTCENTRAL ILL AT 06Z FRI TO OVER EASTERN MICH BY 18Z FRI. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE SNOWFALL EVENTS FOR THE REGION...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COME INTO PLAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WEST OF THE SFC LOW...ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN ILL ON THU NIGHT...ADVANCING NORTH INTO MN AND WI ON FRI. QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 700:300 MB LAYER IS BEST FOR THE FORECAST AREA FROM 06-12Z FRI...WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 295:305 K SURFACES DURING THIS TIME. LOWER ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACE...CLOSER TO THE SFC...UPGLIDE IS MORE FOR THU AFTERNOON...AND GOING INTO SATURATION. DEFORMATION FIELDS INDICATED THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD SET UP FROM SOUTHCENTRAL IA THROUGH EASTERN WI. FEEL THE BIGGEST "PLAYER" FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THE 300 MB JET IS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND DRIVE THROUGH THE LEE OF THE TROUGH ON THU NIGHT. THE IMPLIED A-GEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS WILL THIS JET WOULD PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE...PROLONGED AREA OF LIFT...FROM 00-12Z FRI. WITH THE SFC TROUGH...FAVORABLE QG/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE JET DYNAMICS...PLENTY OF FORCING FOR PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR MOISTURE...AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WERE WORKING TO KEEP THE AREA FROM SATURATING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND X-SECTIONS INDICATE THIS DRY LAYER...FROM 850:950 MB LAYER ON THU. THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SATURATE THE REGION ...WITH RH FIELDS POINTING TO A DEEP SATURATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z FRI. SO...WITH AMPLE FORCING AND MOISTURE...SNOW LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET FOR THU NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...BUT HOW MUCH? QPF FIELDS BRING ABOUT .40/.50 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO 4 TO 8 INCHES...DEPENDING ON WHAT SNOW/RAIN RATIO IS USED. A WARMER TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE MONDAY SNOWS PRODUCED 10:1 RATIOS...SO SOMETHING CLOSER TO 15:1 LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY EXPECTED SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE BETTER SNOW BANDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AUSTIN TO BLACK RIVER FALLS LINE. FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE AN ADVISORY EVENT...WITH 3-6 INCHES FALLING IN THE MORE FAVORABLE SNOW AREAS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR 6-8 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. SO...WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRIENDSHIP WI TO WEST UNION IA LINE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES/WATCHES AND HIGHLIGHTS WHERE THE GREATEST RISK CURRENTLY EXISTS. ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY WARNINGS?...WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT AS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM COMES MORE IN FOCUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY. THIS...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALL SNOW CHANCES...PERHAPS EVEN JUST FLURRIES. THE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MRF/EC BOTH A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE MRF A TAD FASTER THAN THE EC OVERALL. NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. TREND IS TO KEEP THE REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO/AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...TIMING IS SUSPECT IN THESE SCENARIOS...BUT CURRENT SOLUTIONS POINT TO A LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER. ONGOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. && .AVIATION... CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO KRST AND KLSE TAFS AFTER 18ZTHU FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER NGM MOS AND MAV MOS BRING A LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN PRIOR TO THAT. 48H DVLP RUC AT FSL SUGGESTS IFR/LIFR MOVING INTO TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST 14-16Z. BELIEVE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD CIGS/VSBYS ABOVE IFR UNTIL LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ONSET. DB && .ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. IA...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NOON... IAZ011-029-030. WI...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NOON... WIZ043-044-053>055-061. && $$ RIECK wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 330 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATING A STRIP OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ELSEWHERE. WILL THUS CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE RAIN COULD LINGER A TAD LONGER. LOW LEVEL FLOW /850MB/ BEGINS TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THE SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THINGS AT MORNING UPDATE TO SEE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS. MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY IS THE RUC...TOO BAD IT ONLY GOES OUT 12 HOURS. IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT...THAT IS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE ETA/NGM HAVE THE WARM FRONT WAY TOO FAR NORTH THIS MORNING...AND THUS IS PRODUCING TOO MUCH SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AREA DOES HAVE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WITH A COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AS AREA HAS HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE WARM FRONT WILL ONLY MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE DOWN THERE...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SURFACE BASED. TODAYS MOS TEMPERATURES ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE CURRENT BOUNDARY...AND BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO WARM...AND THUS HAVE UNDERCUT THEM TODAY...AS LITTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AS SKIES SHOULD STAY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT BIG TEMPERATURES BUSTS WILL OCCUR DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY GETS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY EARLY TONIGHT...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...BUT THAT PROBABLY IS TOO MUCH. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING AT ALL AS MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY LEAVING THE AREA DRY...BUT COOL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 46 38 47 29 / 100 20 0 0 MLU 51 40 47 28 / 100 30 0 0 TXK 43 35 43 27 / 70 20 0 0 TYR 46 37 46 29 / 60 0 0 0 LFK 55 38 50 28 / 80 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES. LA...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES. OK...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES. TX...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ALL ZONES. && $$ 22 la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ALTER HEADLINES AND EXTEND ADVISORY TO ALL DAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...THEN AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT. .DISCUSSION... ONGOING LIGHT SNOW COVERING MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS PER LOCAL 88D PIX. HANDFUL OF REPORTS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS SINCE LAST EVENING. MOISTURE ROBBING CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS APPARENTLY DETERRED OUR AREA FROM RECEIVING PREVIOUSLY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. STILL...EXPECT JUST LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU NOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LIFT VIA ISENTROPIC WARMING AND DPVA IS PROGGED TO STEADILY DECREASE THRU NOON AS PER LATEST RUC SOLUTION. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...AM INCLINED TO DOWNGRADE HEADLINES TO AN ADVISORY THRU NOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...THEN AT NOON CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS EVENING...LIGHT DEFORMATION TYPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENTS END...WITH 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE...LITTLE WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS DRY CAA FILTERS INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS MONDAY AS THE MODELS...ALBEIT DISPARATELY SO...SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THRU THE PLAINS. && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TODAY...THEN TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. .IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. && $$ DEE ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 258 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... ONGOING LIGHT SNOW COVERING MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS PER LOCAL 88D PIX. HANDFUL OF REPORTS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS SINCE LAST EVENING. MOISTURE ROBBING CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS APPARENTLY DETERRED OUR AREA FROM RECEIVING PREVIOUSLY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. STILL...EXPECT JUST LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU NOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LIFT VIA ISENTROPIC WARMING AND DPVA IS PROGGED TO STEADILY DECREASE THRU NOON AS PER LATEST RUC SOLUTION. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...AM INCLINED TO DOWNGRADE HEADLINES TO AN ADVISORY THRU NOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...THEN AT NOON CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS EVENING...LIGHT DEFORMATION TYPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENTS END...WITH 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE...LITTLE WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS DRY CAA FILTERS INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS MONDAY AS THE MODELS...ALBEIT DISPARATELY SO...SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THRU THE PLAINS. && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA THRU NOON...THEN TIL 6 PM FOR COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80. .IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TIL 6 PM. && $$ DEE ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 220 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .PUBLIC...PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY DO NOT LOOK REAL GOOD GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE. SHOULD CLOUD UP PARTICULARLY THIS AFTN THEN POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OFF OF THE WATER MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS A BIT FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS. MODEL TEMP GUID IS RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON FRI NEAR THE COAST AS SUSPECT SRLY ONSHORE FLOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES THERE. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY BY FRI AFTN AS IT SHOULD TAKE A WHILE FOR PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AND ANY PREFRONTL TSTM ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH FROPA TO OCCUR FRI NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP. FOR SAT WILL BE A BATTLE OF CAA VS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THINK WE SHOULD WILL PROBABLY HAVE LOW LVL CLOUDS IN PLACE AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAA IN THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE MAY HAVE DECREASING TEMPS DURING THE DAY SAT. WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS THERE. CLOUDS TO LINGER SAT NIGHT THEN FINALLY CLEAR OUT ON SUN WITH HIGH PRES TO MOVE IN AND UPR TROF TO KICK OFF THE COAST. COASTAL TROF TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON MON ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND UKMET. TIMING AT THIS POINT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING TUE NIGHT THEN CHANCE WED. STABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT BUT WIND PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN 50 KT TO THE SFC AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA OR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SQUALL LINES. && .MARINE... FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. SFC PRES GRADIENT ALREADY PINCHING N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE WITH 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS IN OUR S CAROLINA WATERS. RUC AND ETA AGREE THE BEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN THE SAME AREA ALL MORNING THEN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ELY THIS AFTN...THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN A BIT...BUT STILL SUPPORT A SOLID 15 KT FLOW. WITH PROSPECTUS OF LOCALLY TIGHT GRADIENT AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS TDA...WILL RAISE A MARGINAL SCA FOR OUR SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 6 FT AT TYBG1. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FCST IS TRICKY TDA...WILL GO WITH SCEC BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OBSERVATIONS NEARING 20 KT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN TREND OF SLOWLY VEERING DIRECTIONS AND INCREASING OFFSHORE WIND SPEEDS. ON FRIDAY...OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS ARE QUITE CHILLY AND SUSPECT THE BEST MIXING WILL BE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND OVER LAND. DESPITE THIS...WILL MAINTAIN OUR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE MENTION OF SEA FOG WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN UP THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. STRONG CAA ON SAT AND WILL BUMP UP OFFSHORE WINDS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. CAA CUTS OFF QUICK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF OFFSHORE ON MON. WILL HOLD ONTO A NELY DIRECTION MON WITH LIGHT SPEEDS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374. SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ350-352. && $$ 18/24 sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 340 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE...CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CLEARING LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS AGREE THAT SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH NOT MUCH PUSH TO THE EAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THEREFORE... WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH AT LEAST 6 AM...WE MAY EVEN NEED TO EXTEND IT LONGER...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE WHEN WE GET THERE. BARRIER JET IN EASTERN COLORADO HAS HELPED PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH VERY LITTLE PUSH TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY AS WELL AS UPPER LOW NEAR BRIGGSDALE COLORADO SLOWLY PUSHES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A LITTLE PRECIP. 500MB TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY...SO MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD PREVAIL. HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST COOL AND DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION DDC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO 38 19 40 16 / 20 0 0 0 BEAVER 34 17 32 9 / 20 0 0 0 BOISE CITY 38 15 39 13 / 20 0 0 0 BORGER 37 19 40 17 / 20 0 0 0 BOYS RANCH 41 18 40 17 / 20 0 0 0 CANYON 41 19 41 17 / 20 0 0 0 CLARENDON 42 20 39 18 / 20 0 0 0 DALHART 41 16 39 15 / 20 0 0 0 GUYMON 35 16 34 12 / 20 0 0 0 HEREFORD 44 19 42 16 / 20 0 0 0 LIPSCOMB 34 19 32 10 / 20 0 0 0 PAMPA 37 19 39 15 / 20 0 0 0 SHAMROCK 37 21 36 18 / 20 0 0 0 WELLINGTON 42 22 36 19 / 20 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR TX ZONES 004-005-009-010-012>015-017>020. OK...NONE. && $$ 17/15 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT... EARLY VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL NARROW MESOSCALE CONVERGENT CLOUD BANDS SET UP OVERNIGHT OVER THE ATLC IN STRONG...DEEP LAYER ESE-SE FLOW. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW...EAST COAST 88D'S SHOW A FEW NARROW SHRA BANDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS OVER BREVARD CO. AWAY FROM THESE BANDS...SKC WITH MILD TEMPS. KXMR RAOB AND 915 MHZ PROFILERS SHOW ~25KT FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE DECK UP THRU ~4KFT. CAPE MESONET SHOWS 20KT @COASTAL SITES AND CLOSER TO 10KT INLAND. FCST...SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE WEAKENING SHRA BAND WITH ONE MORE STF. OTRW...FCST SKIES/WINDS/TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. && .MARINE...LOCAL ADAS ANALYSIS AND BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 20 KT. THIS MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO MLB. LATEST RUC AND ETA SUGGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW THE 20 KT CRITERIA NEEDED FOR SCA...SO WILL CONTINUE WILL SCEC. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI LONG TERM...HIRSCH fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1107 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .UPDATE... SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL HOLDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO LAKE HURON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF +30C THROUGH 600MB. THIS IS LEADING TO HIGH CEILINGS/NO PRECIP DESPITE WIDESPREAD ECHOES APPARENT ON REGIONAL RADARS. THE NEAREST REPORTS OF SNOW AT THE SURFACE ARE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS FOCUSED ALONG A BAND OF GOOD 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS...AS OPPOSED TO GENERAL 290K/295K OVERRUNNING THAT IS LEADING TO THE WIDESPREAD VIRGA. 12Z RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY COLUMN SATURATING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE STATE GENERALLY 21Z/00Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF HEAVIER ECHOES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA /WHICH ARE WEAKENING/ BRINGS THEM INTO THE CWA AROUND 20Z/3PM EST. HOWEVER GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TIMING INDICATED BY THE RUC. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT TO CONTINUE ONCE IT BEGINS...HOWEVER TIMING OF THE ONSET IS RIGHT BETWEEN PERIODS. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...ALLOWING FOR AN UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. FOR NOW WILL MAINLY FRESHEN CLOUD COVER /FROM INCREASING CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY/. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. EVEN STARTING FROM LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY REBOUNDED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CWA /AT 15Z 12F AT MBS TO 21F AT FNT/...WHICH HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING /AT 11Z 5F AT FNT TO 21F AT DTW/. DESPITE CLOUD COVER ALL STATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. && BRAVENDER .PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. 00Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.10 INCHES. THIS DRY AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...DESPITE CIRRUS SHIELD INVADING LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DIPPED DOWN TO AROUND ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BAD AXES CHECKING IN WITH A LOW OF -2 F THUS FAR. IN TERMS OF THE STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT... HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING TO CHANGE MY MIND FROM YESTERDAY'S THINKING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING WITH THE DRY SLOT...CONFIDENT THIS FEATURE WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER DENVER COLORADO...WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. VERY ACTIVE NIGHT IN TERMS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. PREFERENCE FOR THIS ZONE ISSUANCES WILL BE WITH THE 00Z ETAXX/UKMET...WHICH IS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE ETA...AND THE FARTHER EAST TRACK OF THE GFS AND NGM. THE UKMET/ETAXX TRACK IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE WINTER WEATHER EXPERIMENT GRAPHICS. HAVE COMPARED 6 HR QPF FORECASTS OF THE MESOETA AND ETAXX BETWEEN 00-06Z OVER THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI REGION. IT APPEARS THE ETA QPF MAX AXIS IS TOO FAR WEST...WITH QPF NORTH OF THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED BY THE ETA. ETAXX HAS THE MAX QPF AXIS FARTHER EAST WHICH IS ALIGNING BETTER WITH WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. REMEMBER...THE ETAXX USES THE KAIN-FRITSCH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION...BUT RUNS OFF THE GFS INITIAL CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ADVISORY TYPE CRITERIA TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN OHIO ROBS US OF MOISTURE. EVEN IF YOU BUY THE ETA MODEL...700 MB OMEGA FIELD TELLS THE STORY. SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...RIGHT BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER OHIO/WESTERN LAKE ERIE. DAY SHIFT WILL STILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED (.30 TENTHS OR LESS). WILL BE CARRYING A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN (LESS SOUTH...MORE NORTH)...WITH MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA. THE ONLY OTHER PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE WITH THE POSSIBLE DEFORMATION SNOW WHICH MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. GFS IS VERY BULLISH WITH SNOW/QPF FOR THE TRI-CITIES REGION. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING ETAXX AND SURROUNDING OFFICE...WILL KEEP THIS SNOW OUT OF THE THE TRI-CITIES REGION. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE. WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM ROUGHLY JACKSON TO FLINT TO BAX AXE FRIDAY MORNING...WILL BUMP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) SF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A DEEP LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER MANITOBA AND YET ANOTHER IS OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE IS ALSO OVER WINNIPEG FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THERE IS A LOW DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON... WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ROTATES INTO ILLINOIS. THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN ONTARIO RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI SURFACE LOW WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMQT-88D SHOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. KMQT-88D VWP DETECTING THE BASE OF THE SNOW AT 7K FEET AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE SNOW IS REACHING THE SURFACE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER AND RUC/ETA SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THUS THE SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AS WELL. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO WILL CHANGE TEMPERATURES. THUS WILL TWEAK THE FORECAST FOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE REST ALONE UNTIL THE NEW MODELS COME IN. HAVE A HAPPY WEATHER"PERSONS" DAY. .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MIZ011-012 WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT EST SAT MIZ006-007-013-014-085 WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON EST SAT MIZ MIZ004-005 && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 915 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 ...ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNING ALL OF OAX CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... A VARIETY OF FACTORS WARRANT UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT PRIMARILY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FEEDING UP THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. IR AND WATERVAPOR LOOP SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AND MATURE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EAST...WITH WIDE OPEN GULF MOISTURE. IR LOOP IN PARTICULAR SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA. RADAR RETURNS AND COOP OBSERVERS INDICATING AT LEAST ONE INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. GARCIA METHOD SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES SUPPORT ABOUT 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER 2-3 IN THE FOLLOWING 12 HOUR PERIOD. WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SOME CONCERN FOR THE DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER EVEN IF THAT OCCURS WE SHOULD STILL SEE THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD CATCH THOSE COUNTIES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS ASAP. NIETFELD && .PREV DISCUSSION... 315 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 ONGOING LIGHT SNOW COVERING MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS PER LOCAL 88D PIX. HANDFUL OF REPORTS INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS SINCE LAST EVENING. MOISTURE ROBBING CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS APPARENTLY DETERRED OUR AREA FROM RECEIVING PREVIOUSLY THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. STILL...EXPECT JUST LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THRU NOON AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. LIFT VIA ISENTROPIC WARMING AND DPVA IS PROGGED TO STEADILY DECREASE THRU NOON AS PER LATEST RUC SOLUTION. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...AM INCLINED TO DOWNGRADE HEADLINES TO AN ADVISORY THRU NOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...THEN AT NOON CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. THIS EVENING...LIGHT DEFORMATION TYPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES OVERHEAD INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENTS END...WITH 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE...LITTLE WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH AS DRY CAA FILTERS INTO THE PLAINS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHANCE FOR SNOW APPEARS MONDAY AS THE MODELS...ALBEIT DISPARATELY SO...SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THRU THE PLAINS. DEE && .OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NE...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. .IA...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. && $$ DEE NIETFELD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1125 AM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS 1040 MB HIGH OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK...BUILDING DOWN INTO THE APPALACHIANS. STREAMLINE AND ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMS DRIER AIR INVADING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT PRESENT. ALOFT...IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION SIGNATURE UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED INTO THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. 85H STREAMLINES SHOW DRY ATLANTIC FETCH INTO THE REGION...BUT BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF FETCH INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. UPPER AIR ALSO SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OFF THE EAST COAST. AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT MOISTENING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER FFC AND BMX SOUNDINGS. LAPS SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SLEET AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND WE HAVE INDEED HAD SOME LIGHT SLEET REPORTS FROM MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS TAPOCO. A FEW VALLEYS NEAR TENNESSEE BORDER STILL NEAR FREEZING AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTED THERE. CURRENT KGSP 88-D SHOWS ONLY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN...ALTHOUGH ONE SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE REMAINS ON KGSP 88-D. UPSTREAM...KMRX 88-D SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE THAT ARE PARALLELING OUR NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND MOVING NICELY WITH THE FAST 85H FLOW ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. WITH TIME...THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOPEFULLY BE ALL RAIN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE DRIER SURFACE AIR INVADING...STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET THERE...BUT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIMITED TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND NORTH GEORGIA AREAS...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WINTER WEATHER THERE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH RAIN EITHER; LATEST RUC KEEPS EASTERN CWFA DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... AND IN FACT LIMITS MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A SMALL SLIVER OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SO...WILL LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN TO 30 FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BORDERING THE COLUMBIA AND RALEIGH OFFICES...AND BUMP WESTERN ZONES TO CATEGORICAL TO CAPTURE EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS...IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT THE DENSER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE SOUTEHRN AND EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME SOUTHERN SITES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 40S. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATER...WE WILL BUMP MAXES UP MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 44 42 58 40 / 60 99 99 50 AND 45 43 58 41 / 60 99 99 50 CLT 44 41 61 43 / 40 90 99 60 HKY 42 38 54 40 / 60 99 99 60 AVL 42 39 54 36 / 80 99 99 50 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING GAZ010-017-018-026- 028. NC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING NCZ033-034-048>055- 058-059-062>067. SC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING SCZ001>007-010. && 44 $$ sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 701 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .UPDATE... WELL...NO SOONER HAD WE BOUGHT INTO THE LATEST RUC-40 (DRYING) AND DECIDED TO UPDATE FOR LESS FOG CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...THAT MOTHER NATURE PLAYS HER OWN CARD (AGAIN) AND SHIFTS THE DENSE FOG BANK BACK TO THE WEST. FORTUNATELY WE HAD ONLY BEGUN THE UPDATE PROCESS AND HAD NOT PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO REISSUE FORECASTS. SO...FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD ON TO THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. BUT UPDATES REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE WE BECOME CONVINCED OF A BONA-FIDE DRYING TREND...REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE NEXT RUC-40 SAYS. AS FOR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THAT IS STILL A VIABLE ITEM THAT MAY NEED ATTENTION. STRATUS AND FRONT NOW TIMED FOR APPROXIMATELY 815 TO 830 AM FOR NORTHERN PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES. WILL PREPARE GRIDS FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA-PLAINVIEW-LUBBOCK LINE. && $$ 05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 601 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .UPDATE... DRIER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE IN FACT PROGRESSIVELY INVADING THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE VERIFIES CLEARING LINE NOW JUST WEST OF TULIA-PLAINVIEW-LUBBOCK LINE PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUC-40 RUN. AM UPDATING ALL FORECASTS AND GRIDS FOR LESS FOG AND CLOUDS CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING...WHILE HOLDING ON TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONLY EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. MEANWHILE...STRATUS REDEVELOPING VERY PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS WESTERN PANHANDLE DIRECTLY BEHIND COLD FRONT. TIMING CURRENT MOVEMENT BRINGS FRONT AND STRATUS DECK TO NORTHERN PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES BY 15Z OR ABOUT TWO HOURS AHEAD OF CURRENT GRIDS. RUC MAY BE A BIT SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE SOUTH GIVEN THE STRONG PUSH CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IS ALSO INADEQUATE WITH STRATUS DECK THAT FOLLOWS. SLIGHT MODIFICATION THUS TO GRIDS FOR THIS FEATURE. MCQUEEN && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM GENERALLY EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SLATON LINE. && $$ 05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 427 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .SHORT TERM... NEARLY STATIONARY CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES SEPARATING MOIST AIR AND FOG TO THE EAST FROM MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CHANGING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT IN THE FOG AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO STILL APPEARS INITIALIZED TOO FAR EAST BY BOTH RUC AND ETA RUNS AND MAY ACCOUNT FOR TOO RAPID DRYING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. FEEL BEST TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...FAVORING CONTINUING AREAS DENSE FOG CENTRAL AND EAST. PLAN TO REISSUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AROUND 600 AM BARRING MORE RAPID DRYING. UPPER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THIS PUSHES WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION BAND FURTHER EAST TODAY AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A FACTOR ALTHOUGH COULD STILL LEAD TO SPRINKLES EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITIES REMAINING SHOULD IMPROVE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT. MEANWHILE...A COLD VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. LATEST ETA SHOWING MORE EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MOISTENING IN MID LEVELS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS DEEP MOISTURE AS THE GFS. THIS IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS... HOWEVER...LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT. MCQUEEN .LONG TERM... CAA ONGOING FRI MORNING AS VORT-MAX/BASE OF TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX. UPR-LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE INTO THE MIDWEST KEEPING THE SPLNS IN COOL NW FLOW FRI. LARGE SFC HIGH TO DVLP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OUR EAST BRINGING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND KEEPING HIGH TEMP ON SAT COOL DESPITE SHTWV RIDGE ALOFT. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN UNDER H5 RIDGE WITH H8 THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM. MAY SEE A BIT OF LEE-TROUGHING DVLP SUN AS UPR-FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT SYS. THIS ONE LOOKS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEP IT BE. GFS/CAN ROUGHLY SIMILAR WITH EC SLIGHTLY DEEPER. SFC FRONT SHOULD ENTER SPLNS MON MORN. SOME QUESTION WITH HOW STRONG THIS CDFNT WILL BE...LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG SYS ACROSS IS AS EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. MAINTAINED ONLY LOW POPS SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON WITH FROPA AS IN ANY CASE DYNAMICS LOOK TO PASS PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST. TAPERED THESE FROM MINIMAL OUT WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD OCCUR. BEYOND TUE IT BECOMES EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC PERIODS OF HIGHER PRECIP POTENTIAL. MED-RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE WEST COAST RIDGE AND POS-TILTED SW US TROF DEVELOPING AFTER MON. CAN/EC DEPICT A CLOSED H5 LOW FORMING OVER THE DESERT SW BY WED WHILE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BELOW NORM TEMPS WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IF/WHEN STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN LIFT OUT OF THE SW. LEFT POPS OUT OF FCST FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 47 19 41 17 / 20 20 0 0 TULIA 41 20 40 17 / 20 20 0 0 PLAINVIEW 43 21 41 19 / 20 20 0 0 LEVELLAND 51 22 44 21 / 20 20 0 0 LUBBOCK 47 22 43 22 / 20 20 0 0 BROWNFIELD 53 23 45 24 / 10 20 0 0 CHILDRESS 39 23 37 21 / 20 20 0 0 SPUR 45 24 42 24 / 20 20 0 0 ASPERMONT 47 23 42 26 / 10 20 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM GENERALLY EAST OF A DIMMITT TO LEVELLAND TO TAHOKA LINE. && $$ 05/33 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 316 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z PUT THE 500 MB LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO. A BROAD 110 KT JET WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, A 130 KT SPEED MAX WAS DIVING DOWN ACROSS NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING BUT LOW LEVEL PROFILER PLOTS AND SURFACE OBS PLOTS INDICATING THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN REPLACED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. IR SAT LOOPS SHOW SOME LINGERING ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WRAPAROUND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT LIKELY STILL SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ONGOING. RUC 40/MESOETA SHOWING A VORT MAX WOBBLING AROUND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE/SLGT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. THINK THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT AS THE VORT CONTS EAST. BY MORNING THE AREA COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING 850 MB WINDS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WILL KEEP THIS INTACT. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR AND SNOW COVER IS AT A MINIMUM. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT OF GOING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW GUIDANCE AND HAVE LOWERED A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE SNOW COVER IS DEEPER. THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES OUT ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. IN SPITE OF GOOD SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH MORE WIND/MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. DAYS 3-7... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD, BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN IS THE FASTEST WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING IT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS BY MID-DAY ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, ECMWF, AND EVEN THE 06Z GFS RUN ARE SLOWER. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, AND WILL TREND TOWARDS THAT. WE SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, SO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS THE LEAST SNOW COVER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVG FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGH. ALSO SHIFTED THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR A LITTLE LATER, STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH POSITIVELY TILTED AND MOST OF THE GOOD MOISTURE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST (AGAIN), WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS PRETTY LOW, AS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED COMPLETELY OUT. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK, SLIDING SLOWLY EAST BY THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END HANGS BACK AND THE TIMING OF LITTLE WAVES COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH, BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS SORT OF FEATURES ARE LITTLE MORE THAN NOISE ANYWAY. WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DAY 5-7 GRIDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 20 30 05 31 / 30 00 00 00 GCK 18 32 05 32 / 20 00 00 00 EHA 19 36 12 38 / 20 00 00 00 LBL 20 35 10 36 / 20 00 00 00 HYS 19 27 -1 25 / 30 00 00 00 P28 21 29 08 30 / 30 00 00 00 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. && $$ GERARD/RITTERLING ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 245 PM EST THU FEB 5 2004 .UPDATE... LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/UPSLOPE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NC MTNS. THE PRECIP IS DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SUBFREEZING ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND NRN MTNS...AND WET BULB TEMPS ARE SUBFREEZING AND DROPPING ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS. THUS...A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/ FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS DEVELOPED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...UNTIL WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AND WARMS TEMPS ABOVE 32F. THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS THEREFORE TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUM...MAINLY NC MTNS/FOOTHILLS...AND RUN IT THRU MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT MUCH COOLER TRENDS AS WELL. REGULAR FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 1125 AM. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS 1040 MB HIGH OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK...BUILDING DOWN INTO THE APPALACHIANS. STREAMLINE AND ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMS DRIER AIR INVADING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT PRESENT. ALOFT...IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION SIGNATURE UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED INTO THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY. 85H STREAMLINES SHOW DRY ATLANTIC FETCH INTO THE REGION...BUT BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF FETCH INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION. UPPER AIR ALSO SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OFF THE EAST COAST. AREA SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT MOISTENING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST PER FFC AND BMX SOUNDINGS. LAPS SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SLEET AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND WE HAVE INDEED HAD SOME LIGHT SLEET REPORTS FROM MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS TAPOCO. A FEW VALLEYS NEAR TENNESSEE BORDER STILL NEAR FREEZING AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REPORTED THERE. CURRENT KGSP 88-D SHOWS ONLY LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN...ALTHOUGH ONE SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE REMAINS ON KGSP 88-D. UPSTREAM...KMRX 88-D SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RETURNS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE THAT ARE PARALLELING OUR NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND MOVING NICELY WITH THE FAST 85H FLOW ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. WITH TIME...THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOPEFULLY BE ALL RAIN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE DRIER SURFACE AIR INVADING...STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET THERE...BUT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIMITED TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND NORTH GEORGIA AREAS...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WINTER WEATHER THERE...AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH RAIN EITHER; LATEST RUC KEEPS EASTERN CWFA DRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... AND IN FACT LIMITS MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A SMALL SLIVER OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. SO...WILL LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN TO 30 FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BORDERING THE COLUMBIA AND RALEIGH OFFICES...AND BUMP WESTERN ZONES TO CATEGORICAL TO CAPTURE EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS...IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT THE DENSER CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY FROM THE SOUTEHRN AND EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME SOUTHERN SITES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 40S. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATER...WE WILL BUMP MAXES UP MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LOWER IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. BURRUS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GSP 34 42 58 40 / 60 99 99 50 AND 35 43 58 41 / 60 99 99 50 CLT 44 41 61 43 / 40 90 99 60 HKY 42 38 54 40 / 60 99 99 60 AVL 34 39 54 36 / 80 99 99 50 && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING GAZ010-017-018-026-028. NC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-059-062>067. SC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING SCZ001>007-010. && $$ MOORE/JONES sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR MIDDAY AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1055 AM CST THU FEB 5 2004 .MIDDAY AVIATION... THOUGHT RUC40...META...ETA BUFFER SOUNDINGS CONT TO INDICATE CONDS GOING TO MVFR BY 18Z/AFTER...NOT BUYING INTO IT PER CURRENT SATELLITE /WX DEPICTION TRENDS FROM SATL/OBS BOTH AT D/FW TAF SITES AND ON SATL. MUCH BETTER BET OF IMPROVING CONDS AT KACT AS DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE BL IS OCCURRING NOW JUST W OF THERE. WILL HOLD IN IFR CONDS AT D/FW UNTIL 21-22Z...THEN BRING IN MVFR CONDS. NOT GOING TO TRY TO PLAY IN PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT DFW WITH NEXT FROPA AND LOW CLOUDS/TIMING TO HARD TO DECIPHER...BUT MAY THROW IN A TEMPO FOR SUCH BETWEEN 22-01Z FOR SUCH. OTRW...WITH WEAK PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING IN BEHIND FIRST FRONT ACROSS W TX...WINDS SHOULD STAY LGT NELY...UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH RESULTS IN WLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS EVE...THEN NEXT FROPA OVRNGT VEERING WINDS AROUND NLY AT 8-14 KTS BY 06Z...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TWDS END OF FCST PD. 05/ && .UPDATE 920 AM CST ... UPDATED PRODUCTS TO REMOVE PRECIP TODAY...AS A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED IN ALOFT WHILE THE MOISTURE FLOW HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY...PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME VIRGA OR A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURE WISE...I DROPPED TEMPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION A TAD...AS LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 450 AM CST RAIN CONTINUES OVER MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WV STILL SHOWING IMPULSES IN THE FLOW...BUT MAIN PINWHEEL OVER COLORADO SHOULD BEGIN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...HEALTHY PW WITH ABUNDANT BL MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE INVERSION. WITH TRAINING ACTION...ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN EASTERN ZONES BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. WEEKEND WILL BE SUNNY WITH COLD NIGHTS AND COOL AFTERNOONS. RETURN FLOW BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WAA WILL BE STUNTED BY THE RETURN OF CLOUD COVER AS THE WORKWEEK BEGINS. GFS/ETA IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ECMWF CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH STRONG POSITIVE TILT. UKMET ALSO HINTING AT DEEPENING AS TROUGH RACES INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. UPPED POPS...BUT WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH LOW-END CHANCE POPS. FROPA FOLLOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP. WITH STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS... CAA SHOULD BE PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...BITTER ARCTIC COLD REMAINS UNTAPPED...WITH MAIN SOURCE REGION BEING BC/PAC NW. THIS MP/CP HYBRID AIR WILL BE COLD NONETHELESS. AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION...MAKING HARD TURNS ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INTRODUCE POPS BEYOND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN MAY BE IN THE OFFING. 25 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ tx