000
FXUS63 KLSX 150559
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1259 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

.UPDATE...
/1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/

VORT MAX OVER SWRN MO ATTM SLOWLY MOVING ENEWD AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THRU SERN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN TO ECNTRL IL BY
DAYBREAK. THIS VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL AT MAINTAINING
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA IN SWRN MO AND SO HAVE PLANNED ON THIS MAINTAINING
SOME SHRA ACTIVITY THRU THE NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD. AREA OF MID
CLOUD TO THE S AND LO CLOUD TO THE SE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FA BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ONE VORT MAX EXITS...WITH ANOTHER ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE W. SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM ACTING ON A
SIMILAR ATMOSPHERE SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR RESULTS...AND HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL OF THE
CLOUDS...TRIMMED MAX TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO TO MATCH BETTER WITH
AREAS IN CLOUDS TO OUR SW TODAY.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/

SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...THE DRY AIR
IS EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TRYING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. SO SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
LOW 30S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST..THEN GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
IN THE LOW 40S.

WARMUP REALLY KICKS IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

MODELS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVING IT STALL
OUT BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/1227 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
MID DECK AROUND 10 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NE OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
MID DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 5 KFT DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT AND/OR VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SELY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL NELY FLOW OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS FINALLY PULLS AWAY. SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR FROM SW TO
NE ON MONDAY.

MILLER

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 150509
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

12Z 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN ELONGATED POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW KANSAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS
AXIS...MOST NOTABLY A WELL-DEFINED CUTOFF CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER
NW KANSAS.

WHILE THIS FEATURE REMAINS ABSENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER AT PRESENT...IT
WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY LINGERING
OVER SE KS/SW MO AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS PVA AND DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW IS LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE AS IT
BEGINS TO ACQUIRE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

OTHERWISE...A PRONOUNCED WARMUP IS THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR
THE EARLY WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC JET AND ACCOMPANYING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THE 500MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE NRN TIER...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING MOST OF THE
US. BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY`S SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WILL EQUIVALENT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES...PROMOTING A BROAD LEE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER... STILL EXPECTING READINGS TO
REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY...AND REMAINING QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BOOKBINDER

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

FOR NEXT WEEK...A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A
STRONG JET ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE ONLY MODEST
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. HAVE LEFT GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
BE AS WARM AS 14C. PLENTY OF TIME TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER CATEGORY
/OR TWO/ IN FUTURE FORECASTS PROVIDED CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GROW.

THE STRONG ZONAL JET WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO BEGIN CARVING OUT A MILD EAST
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING IS A BIT IFFY AT THIS TIME AS RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO CONFIDENCE ON ITS TIMING /AND ULTIMATELY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST/ IS ALSO LOW. STILL...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AM THINKING THAT
FALLING TEMPERATURES MIGHT THEN PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THE ONLY ISSUE TO WATCH FOR AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SHUTOFF TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THANKS TO A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
RATHER WEAK ZONAL SUB-TROPICAL JET. THE IMPLICATION HERE IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE THAT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT MOVES
THROUGH WILL HAVE TO BE COMING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC....WHICH IS
WHAT THE CURRENT RUN OF MID RANGE MODELS IS ADVERTISING. GIVEN
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE
COVERAGE AREA FOR CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POPS THAT WE HAD GOING FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN BOTH THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS RANGING FROM 4K-6K FT ADVECTING NORTH FROM SERN KANSAS/SWRN
MISSOURI WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE AND HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ANY OPERATIONAL
THRESHOLDS. ONLY OTHER WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE SCT SPRINKLES/VIRGA
PASSING OVER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH COVERAGE AND DURATION
PRECLUDE ANY PREDOMINANT MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 150440
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...

SUBTLE...MESSY AREA OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVES ARE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST
NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWFA IS AN IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. A PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO THIS
MORNING...NOT MUCH...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEATHER BLEAK ALONG
THE AR BORDER. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT ITS WAY
NORTH AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND SOUTHEAST KS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH THE
RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN KS ATTM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MO
ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AND HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS TO COVER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION STARTING TO KICK INTO GEAR.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. DSA

LONGER TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

MADE A FEW CHANGES FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AS CEILINGS BEGINNING TO
LOWER AT SGF. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE DROPPED INTO MVFR CATEGORY. WITH GENERALLY CALM WIND EXPECTED
AND A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN TODAY...HAVE ALSO DROPPED SGF INTO MVFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR VISIBILITIES. JLN ON EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD
AND BELIEVE WILL REMAIN IN VFR CEILINGS. WITH NO RAIN THERE...HAVE
KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR AS WELL.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 150300
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.UPDATE...
/1000 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/

VORT MAX OVER SWRN MO ATTM SLOWLY MOVING ENEWD AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THRU SERN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN TO ECNTRL IL BY
DAYBREAK. THIS VORT MAX HAS BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL AT MAINTAINING
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA IN SWRN MO AND SO HAVE PLANNED ON THIS MAINTAINING
SOME SHRA ACTIVITY THRU THE NIGHT AS IT DRIFTS ENEWD. AREA OF MID
CLOUD TO THE S AND LO CLOUD TO THE SE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FA BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...ONE VORT MAX EXITS...WITH ANOTHER ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE W. SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM ACTING ON A
SIMILAR ATMOSPHERE SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR RESULTS...AND HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA ON SUNDAY AND WITH ALL OF THE
CLOUDS...TRIMMED MAX TEMPS BY A DEG OR TWO TO MATCH BETTER WITH
AREAS IN CLOUDS TO OUR SW TODAY.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/

SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...THE DRY AIR
IS EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TRYING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. SO SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
LOW 30S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST..THEN GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
IN THE LOW 40S.

WARMUP REALLY KICKS IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

MODELS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVING IT STALL
OUT BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/640 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH
MVFR CLOUD DECK BACKING UP INTO STL METRO TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL CASCADE ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT...5KTS OR LESS.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 142342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...THE DRY AIR
IS EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TRYING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. SO SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
LOW 30S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST..THEN GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
IN THE LOW 40S.

WARMUP REALLY KICKS IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

MODELS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVING IT STALL
OUT BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
...BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/640 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR CLOUD DECK BACKING UP
INTO STL METRO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CASCADE ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...5KTS OR LESS.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 142255
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...

SUBTLE...MESSY AREA OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVES ARE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST
NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWFA IS AN IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. A PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO THIS
MORNING...NOT MUCH...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEATHER BLEAK ALONG
THE AR BORDER. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT ITS WAY
NORTH AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND SOUTHEAST KS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH THE
RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN KS ATTM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MO
ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AND HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS TO COVER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION STARTING TO KICK INTO GEAR.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. DSA

LONGER TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE
AS OF 23Z AT SGF BUT EAST OF JLN. SHOULD SEE END OF PRECIPITATION
PRIOR TO BEGINNING OF 00Z TAFS AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY LIGHT
RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE TAFS. COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT SGF LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT VFR
CONDITIONS AT JLN.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 141944
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

12Z 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN ELONGATED POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW KANSAS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS
AXIS...MOST NOTABLY A WELL-DEFINED CUTOFF CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER
NW KANSAS.

WHILE THIS FEATURE REMAINS ABSENT OF ANY CLOUD COVER AT PRESENT...IT
WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY LINGERING
OVER SE KS/SW MO AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS PVA AND DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW IS LOCALLY ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE AS IT
BEGINS TO ACQUIRE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

OTHERWISE...A PRONOUNCED WARMUP IS THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR
THE EARLY WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC JET AND ACCOMPANYING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THE 500MB HEIGHT
GRADIENT OVER THE NRN TIER...WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING MOST OF THE
US. BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY`S SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WILL EQUIVALENT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES...PROMOTING A BROAD LEE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER... STILL EXPECTING READINGS TO
REACH THE 70S ON MONDAY...AND REMAINING QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BOOKBINDER

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

FOR NEXT WEEK...A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A
STRONG JET ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE ONLY MODEST
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. HAVE LEFT GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
BE AS WARM AS 14C. PLENTY OF TIME TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER CATEGORY
/OR TWO/ IN FUTURE FORECASTS PROVIDED CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GROW.

THE STRONG ZONAL JET WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO BEGIN CARVING OUT A MILD EAST
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING IS A BIT IFFY AT THIS TIME AS RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO CONFIDENCE ON ITS TIMING /AND ULTIMATELY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST/ IS ALSO LOW. STILL...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...BUT AM THINKING THAT
FALLING TEMPERATURES MIGHT THEN PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THE ONLY ISSUE TO WATCH FOR AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SHUTOFF TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THANKS TO A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
RATHER WEAK ZONAL SUB-TROPICAL JET. THE IMPLICATION HERE IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE THAT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT MOVES
THROUGH WILL HAVE TO BE COMING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC....WHICH IS
WHAT THE CURRENT RUN OF MID RANGE MODELS IS ADVERTISING. GIVEN
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE
COVERAGE AREA FOR CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POPS THAT WE HAD GOING FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST GIVEN BOTH THE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 8-10KFT DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KC TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTANT OVER THE AREA.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 141943
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/243 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...THE DRY AIR
IS EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE TRYING TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. SO SEEING MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
LOW 30S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST..THEN GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY...SO LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER
IN THE LOW 40S.

WARMUP REALLY KICKS IN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY.

MODELS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVING IT STALL
OUT BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
...BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STILL HAVE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION...
/1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH S SYSTEM WL
BRUSH AREA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS.
PRIMARY CONCERN...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...DEALS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
WRF/NAM AS SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS AREA. AT FIRST I THOUGHT THIS WAS MUCH TOO QUICK BUT ON
CLOSER EXAMINATION THE MVFR CEILINGS AREN`T REALLY ALL THAT FAR
AWAY. HWVR...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO BE MUCH TOO
ROBUST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. AFT
COORDINATING WITH CWSU OLATHE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON BRINING MVFR
CIGS INTO STL AREA TAFS UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY. WILL SIMPLY HAVE
TO MONITOR TREND OF THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING A BIT
BETTER.

TRUETT
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 141750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/304 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL BE THE FCST FOCUS TO TODAY.
EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC THIS EVENING AS A S/W EJECTS EWD.

KEPT TEMPS FOR TODAY CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST. EXPECT CLDS TO SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER MOS VALUES.
SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RETREAT WITH NELY TO ELY WINDS IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA. SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AS SLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE CWA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE REACHING THE
LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES ON WED AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. UPA TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE REGION WED MORNING
PROVIDING A LITTLE ENERGY. SFC CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG
THE CDFNT. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE WAA ALONG THE 850H FNT.
MODELS AGREE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED
NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS/CMC MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A
FASTER FNT BRINGING PRECIP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WED
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER EMCWF AS THIS HAS BEEN THE
FAVORED MODEL LATELY.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1237 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH S SYSTEM WL
BRUSH AREA TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS.
PRIMARY CONCERN...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING...DEALS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
WRF/NAM AS SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS AREA. AT FIRST I THOUGHT THIS WAS MUCH TOO QUICK BUT ON
CLOSER EXAMINATION THE MVFR CEILINGS AREN`T REALLY ALL THAT FAR
AWAY. HWVR...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD A TENDENCY TO BE MUCH TOO
ROBUST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. AFT
COORDINATING WITH CWSU OLATHE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON BRINING MVFR
CIGS INTO STL AREA TAFS UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY. WILL SIMPLY HAVE
TO MONITOR TREND OF THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING A BIT
BETTER.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 141746
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...

SUBTLE...MESSY AREA OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/SHORTWAVES ARE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MOST
NOTABLE FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWFA IS AN IMPULSE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. A PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO THIS
MORNING...NOT MUCH...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEATHER BLEAK ALONG
THE AR BORDER. THE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT ITS WAY
NORTH AGAINST DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER SOUTHERN
MO AND SOUTHEAST KS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL JUST NEED TO WATCH THE
RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN KS ATTM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MO
ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AND HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS TO COVER THIS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
WEAK WARM ADVECTION STARTING TO KICK INTO GEAR.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND. DSA

LONGER TERM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH THE
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER
MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT THURSDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER
THURSDAY MORNING AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

CLAYCOMB



&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...BUT DO THINK SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SGF
AERODROME THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FEET AT JLN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT SGF. PRECIP AREA SHOULD
JUST SKIRT SOUTH OF JOPLIN AND THEY SHOULD STAY VFR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE WHEN NEEDED.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 141657
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE MID SOUTH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OUT WEST APPEARS TO HAVE TWO LOBES ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. FIRST LOBE WAS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE A SECOND LOBE
IS SITUATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY.

GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL GET
KICKED OUT TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
EXITING THE REGION...BELIEVE THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SO KEPT LOW POPS AND QPF FOR
TODAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...EXPECT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO
DEVELOP AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID
WEEK. AT THAT TIME...A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY
WEEKS END.

GAEDE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN
PLACE...BUT DO THINK SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SGF
AERODROME THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND
4000 FEET AT JLN AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT SGF. PRECIP AREA SHOULD
JUST SKIRT SOUTH OF JOPLIN AND THEY SHOULD STAY VFR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE WHEN NEEDED.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 141124
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE MID SOUTH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OUT WEST APPEARS TO HAVE TWO LOBES ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. FIRST LOBE WAS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE A SECOND LOBE
IS SITUATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY.

GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL GET
KICKED OUT TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
EXITING THE REGION...BELIEVE THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SO KEPT LOW POPS AND QPF FOR
TODAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...EXPECT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO
DEVELOP AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID
WEEK. AT THAT TIME...A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY
WEEKS END.

GAEDE


&&

.AVIATION...

A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 10 KFT WILL PERSIST TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS MAY LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN VFR. OTHERWISE LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
TODAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 141119
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
619 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/304 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL BE THE FCST FOCUS TO TODAY.
EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC THIS EVENING AS A S/W EJECTS EWD.

KEPT TEMPS FOR TODAY CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST. EXPECT CLDS TO SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER MOS VALUES.
SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RETREAT WITH NELY TO ELY WINDS IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA. SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AS SLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE CWA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE REACHING THE
LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES ON WED AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. UPA TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE REGION WED MORNING
PROVIDING A LITTLE ENERGY. SFC CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG
THE CDFNT. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE WAA ALONG THE 850H FNT.
MODELS AGREE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED
NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS/CMC MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A
FASTER FNT BRINGING PRECIP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WED
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER EMCWF AS THIS HAS BEEN THE
FAVORED MODEL LATELY.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/524 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER
MIS-VLY AND ASSOC SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD
BE THICKEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY E-NE FLOW AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN VLY.

MILLER

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 141105
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MAIN PATTERN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS THAT THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH TIME...AS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THIS TROUGH
ROTATES EASTWARD AS THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST
COAST...IT WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...MOVING IT INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FAIRLY COMPACT WAVE ALSO IS GETTING MORE ORGANIZED
AND EVEN TAKING ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
120KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THAT TIME. THOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...IT IS NOT TOTALLY LACKING...SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS
THIS WAVE MOVES PAST.

AS THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SHORT
WAVE...WILL OCCUR WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY BECOMING MORE ZONAL ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO BUCKLE THE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS FRONT MAY EVEN BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FRONT AS MODELS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE A NICE WARM UP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES MORE TRICKY AS FRONT MAY BE
THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD AS IT WILL HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY
PACIFIC MARITIME AIR...AND THE COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL BE
NORTH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF IOWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY. SO WOULD EXPECT THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID MARCH.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 6K-10K FT CIGS
BISECTING TERMINAL CORRIDOR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME MORE SCT AND SINK SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 140846
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/304 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
WEAK SYSTEM ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL BE THE FCST FOCUS TO TODAY.
EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO REMAIN S OF THE CWA FOR MUCH OF TODAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC THIS EVENING AS A S/W EJECTS EWD.

KEPT TEMPS FOR TODAY CLOSE TO THE PREV FCST. EXPECT CLDS TO SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS BELOW THE WARMER MOS VALUES.
SFC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RETREAT WITH NELY TO ELY WINDS IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA. SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AS SLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE CWA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE REACHING THE
LOWER 70S BY MONDAY.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES ON WED AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE REGION. UPA TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE REGION WED MORNING
PROVIDING A LITTLE ENERGY. SFC CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG
THE CDFNT. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE WAA ALONG THE 850H FNT.
MODELS AGREE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAY WED INTO WED
NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS/CMC MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A
FASTER FNT BRINGING PRECIP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WED
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER EMCWF AS THIS HAS BEEN THE
FAVORED MODEL LATELY.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1056 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MID-HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NEWD
THRU MAINLY SRN AND E CNTRL MO LT TGT AND SAT AS SHRTWV NOW
MOVG NEWD THRU TX EVENTUALLY MOVES THRU SERN MO SAT AFTN AND
EVNG. AHD OF THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE TN VLY REGION SAT AFTN AND EVNG. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL REMAIN S OF COU...STL AND SUS ON SAT WITH
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS DUE TO THE SFC RDG CONTG TO EXTD WWD THRU
NRN IL INTO NERN MO. LOOKING AT THE MDL RH FCSTS THE CLOUD CEILING
HGT MAY LWR TO ARND 8000-10000 FT ON SAT FM COU E TO STL. SFC WNDS
SHOULD REMAIN E-NELY THIS FCST PD.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 140838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO A LOW OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING OVER THE MID SOUTH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OUT WEST APPEARS TO HAVE TWO LOBES ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. FIRST LOBE WAS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE A SECOND LOBE
IS SITUATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BE OUR
POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY.

GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THIS MODEL FOR THE MOST PART. AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL GET
KICKED OUT TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY
EXITING THE REGION...BELIEVE THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SO KEPT LOW POPS AND QPF FOR
TODAY.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...EXPECT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TO
DEVELOP AND A RETURN TO MORE SPRINGLIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD
MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID
WEEK. AT THAT TIME...A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY
WEEKS END.

GAEDE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THEREFORE HAVE
NOT MENTIONED RAIN WITHIN THE TAFS JUST YET.

WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10MPH.

CRAMER


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 140821
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MAIN PATTERN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AXIS THAT THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM NEBRASKA BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH TIME...AS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THIS TROUGH
ROTATES EASTWARD AS THE UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST
COAST...IT WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...MOVING IT INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FAIRLY COMPACT WAVE ALSO IS GETTING MORE ORGANIZED
AND EVEN TAKING ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
120KT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THAT TIME. THOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...IT IS NOT TOTALLY LACKING...SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD AS
THIS WAVE MOVES PAST.

AS THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SHORT
WAVE...WILL OCCUR WITH A WARMER RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY BECOMING MORE ZONAL ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO BUCKLE THE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS FRONT MAY EVEN BE THROUGH THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FRONT AS MODELS SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE A NICE WARM UP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARRIVING ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES MORE TRICKY AS FRONT MAY BE
THROUGH THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT SHOULD NOT BE THAT COLD AS IT WILL HAVE BEEN INFLUENCED BY
PACIFIC MARITIME AIR...AND THE COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL BE
NORTH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NORTH OF IOWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY. SO WOULD EXPECT THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID MARCH.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...
/1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 5K-6K FT CIGS OVER
CNTRL KANSAS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT INTO KMKC/KMCI TERMINALS MAY BRING
SCT/BKN CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB
5KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF AN ELY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 140507
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/258 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FINALLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SUFFICIENT SOLAR RADIATION TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP NEGATE ANY DRASTIC TEMPERATURE SWING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

BY TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRESSURES
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION AS LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY WITHIN SLOWLY BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESS REGIME. MAIN
CAVEAT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH ANY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
FROM POTENT VORT MAX EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LLVL THERMAL AXIS WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A MORE VIGOROUS WARM UP BY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW
WILL ADVECT H85 TEMPS OF 3C-5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FULL MIXING POTENTIAL BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIKELY CORRELATE TO MAX TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE SHORT VERSION...
FORECAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK: IT IS GOING TO BE PLEASANT AND DRY.

THE LONG VERSION...
MID-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY POINTING AT A ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALIZED
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS...DUE TO A STILL
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...INDICATES THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS FROM THE GFS TO THE
ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING THAT H8 TEMPERATURES MIGHT REACH INTO THE LOW
TEENS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS TREND OF PUSHING
TEMPERATURES UP AS A RESULT. FORECAST STILL MIGHT BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY PLENTY OF TIME TO CONTINUE TRENDING
TEMPERATURES UP.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE TO FILTER SOUTH. LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND
PREVAILS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CURRENTLY HAVE SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY DAY AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MOISTURE RETURN IS LOOKING A BIT IFFY WITH THE LATEST MID-RANGE
MODEL RUNS...BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO POINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH. LATER MODEL RUNS MIGHT
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 5K-6K FT CIGS OVER
CNTRL KANSAS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT INTO KMKC/KMCI TERMINALS MAY BRING
SCT/BKN CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB
5KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A WIDE RANGE OF AN ELY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 140425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HOLES OR THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT ENE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM MEXICO INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE MS VLY COUPLED WITH WEAK
LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OR REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT DRY
AIR INFUSION WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND
ONLY HAVE SMALL POP CHANCES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT SEEMS LIKE THE DRY
AIR HAS PERSISTENTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ECMWF (00Z RUN) IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP VERSUS THE
GFS...BUT THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PROBLEM WITH THE ECMWF AND
NAM THIS WEEK.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MIGRATES ENE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN SOME AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND
MOISTURE...BUT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON-WED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO AROUND 11-13 DEG C SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. A DIP IN THE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL
SUPPORT A FROPA WED-WED NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DSA



&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS:
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THEREFORE HAVE
NOT MENTIONED RAIN WITHIN THE TAFS JUST YET.

WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10MPH.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 140403
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1103 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/226 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS TEMPS BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF SPRING TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
CONTINUE AS OLD MAN WINTER SLOWLY LOOSES HIS GRIP ON THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWING. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXT SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED ON SUNDAY...TEMPS
COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA FROM ANYTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1056 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MID-HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL CONT TO SPREAD NEWD
THRU MAINLY SRN AND E CNTRL MO LT TGT AND SAT AS SHRTWV NOW
MOVG NEWD THRU TX EVENTUALLY MOVES THRU SERN MO SAT AFTN AND
EVNG. AHD OF THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES AND MOVE NEWD INTO THE TN VLY REGION SAT AFTN AND EVNG. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL REMAIN S OF COU...STL AND SUS ON SAT WITH
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS DUE TO THE SFC RDG CONTG TO EXTD WWD THRU
NRN IL INTO NERN MO. LOOKING AT THE MDL RH FCSTS THE CLOUD CEILING
HGT MAY LWR TO ARND 8000-10000 FT ON SAT FM COU E TO STL. SFC WNDS
SHOULD REMAIN E-NELY THIS FCST PD.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 132356
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HOLES OR THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT ENE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM MEXICO INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE MS VLY COUPLED WITH WEAK
LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OR REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT DRY
AIR INFUSION WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND
ONLY HAVE SMALL POP CHANCES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT SEEMS LIKE THE DRY
AIR HAS PERSISTENTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ECMWF (00Z RUN) IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP VERSUS THE
GFS...BUT THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PROBLEM WITH THE ECMWF AND
NAM THIS WEEK.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MIGRATES ENE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN SOME AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND
MOISTURE...BUT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON-WED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO AROUND 11-13 DEG C SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. A DIP IN THE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL
SUPPORT A FROPA WED-WED NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DSA



&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...THEREFORE HAVE
NOT MENTIONED RAIN WITHIN THE TAFS JUST YET.

WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10MPH.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 132322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/258 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FINALLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SUFFICIENT SOLAR RADIATION TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP NEGATE ANY DRASTIC TEMPERATURE SWING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

BY TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRESSURES
BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION AS LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY WITHIN SLOWLY BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESS REGIME. MAIN
CAVEAT TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH ANY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
FROM POTENT VORT MAX EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LLVL THERMAL AXIS WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A MORE VIGOROUS WARM UP BY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW
WILL ADVECT H85 TEMPS OF 3C-5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FULL MIXING POTENTIAL BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIKELY CORRELATE TO MAX TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE SHORT VERSION...
FORECAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK: IT IS GOING TO BE PLEASANT AND DRY.

THE LONG VERSION...
MID-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY POINTING AT A ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALIZED
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS...DUE TO A STILL
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...INDICATES THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS FROM THE GFS TO THE
ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING THAT H8 TEMPERATURES MIGHT REACH INTO THE LOW
TEENS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS TREND OF PUSHING
TEMPERATURES UP AS A RESULT. FORECAST STILL MIGHT BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY PLENTY OF TIME TO CONTINUE TRENDING
TEMPERATURES UP.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE TO FILTER SOUTH. LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND
PREVAILS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CURRENTLY HAVE SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY DAY AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MOISTURE RETURN IS LOOKING A BIT IFFY WITH THE LATEST MID-RANGE
MODEL RUNS...BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO POINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH. LATER MODEL RUNS MIGHT
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS MAINLY
FEW-SCT AROUND 5-8KFT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE HOWEVER WITH
A LOOSELY EAST COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 132318
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
618 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/226 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS TEMPS BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF SPRING TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
CONTINUE AS OLD MAN WINTER SLOWLY LOOSES HIS GRIP ON THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWING. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXT SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED ON SUNDAY...TEMPS
COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA FROM ANYTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/557 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MID-HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO
THE CWA TGT AND SAT AS SHRTWV NOW APPROACHING WRN TX MOVES NEWD
EVENTUALLY MOVG THRU SERN MO SAT AFTN AND EVNG. AHD OF THIS
FEATURE A SFC LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVE
NEWD INTO THE TN VLY REGION SAT AFTN AND EVNG. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
RAIN WILL REMAIN S OF COU...STL AND SUS ON SAT WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LVLS DUE TO THE SFC RDG CONTG TO EXTD WWD THRU NRN IL INTO
NERN MO. LOOKING AT THE MDL RH FCSTS THE CLOUD CEILING HGT SHOULD
LWR TO ARND 8000-10000 FT ON SAT FM COU E TO STL. SFC WNDS SHOULD
REMAIN E-NELY THIS FCST PD.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 131958
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FINALLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
FOR SUFFICIENT SOLAR RADIATION TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP NEGATE ANY DRASTIC TEMPERATURE SWING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

BY TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AS DEEP SOUTH SFC LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODIFICATION AS LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
WITHIN SLOWLY BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESS REGIME. MAIN CAVEAT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH ANY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FROM POTENT
VORT MAX EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LLVL THERMAL AXIS WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A MORE VIGOROUS WARM UP BY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW
WILL ADVECT H85 TEMPS OF 3C-5C BY SUNDAY EVENING. BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FULL MIXING POTENTIAL BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIKELY CORRELATE TO MAX TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

DEROCHE


MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE SHORT VERSION...
FORECAST FOR NEXT WORK WEEK: IT IS GOING TO BE PLEASANT AND DRY.

THE LONG VERSION...
MID-RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY POINTING AT A ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATING THE CONUS DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALIZED
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS...DUE TO A STILL
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM...INDICATES THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS FROM THE GFS TO THE
ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING THAT H8 TEMPERATURES MIGHT REACH INTO THE LOW
TEENS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS TREND OF PUSHING
TEMPERATURES UP AS A RESULT. FORECAST STILL MIGHT BE ON THE COOL
SIDE...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY PLENTY OF TIME TO CONTINUE TRENDING
TEMPERATURES UP.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAYS HIGHS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE TO FILTER SOUTH. LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND
PREVAILS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CURRENTLY HAVE SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY DAY AND NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MOISTURE RETURN IS LOOKING A BIT IFFY WITH THE LATEST MID-RANGE
MODEL RUNS...BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO POINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH. LATER MODEL RUNS MIGHT
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW
POPS.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...
/1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 6-10 KFT. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING VIA VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME BREAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB
6KT...AND WILL BE PERIODICALLY VARIABLE BETWEEN A SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 131927
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
227 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/226 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS TEMPS BACK AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF SPRING TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
CONTINUE AS OLD MAN WINTER SLOWLY LOOSES HIS GRIP ON THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
SWING. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXT SATURDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED ON SUNDAY...TEMPS
COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE 60S.

HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...BUT BELIEVE DRY AIR AT THE LOW
LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA FROM ANYTHING MORE
THAN SPRINKLES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE STUBBORNLY HANGING ACR MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL KEEP LO LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED S OF OUR
FA...SO TAF WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE 24-36 HRS. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN OUT OF
THE E-NE...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 8 KTS.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 131924
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUES TO PUMP LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. HOLES OR THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID 40S.

SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT ENE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH
FROM MEXICO INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE MS VLY COUPLED WITH WEAK
LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE
OR REDEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. PERSISTENT DRY
AIR INFUSION WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...AND
ONLY HAVE SMALL POP CHANCES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT SEEMS LIKE THE DRY
AIR HAS PERSISTENTLY EATEN AWAY AT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ECMWF (00Z RUN) IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP VERSUS THE
GFS...BUT THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT PROBLEM WITH THE ECMWF AND
NAM THIS WEEK.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MIGRATES ENE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND COULDN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN SOME AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND
MOISTURE...BUT ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MON-WED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
850MB TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO AROUND 11-13 DEG C SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. A DIP IN THE UPPER WESTERLIES WILL
SUPPORT A FROPA WED-WED NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE. DSA



&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS NEXT 24 HOURS AS
STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY AIR THAT WILL
KEEP LOWER LEVELS DRY AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 131752
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1252 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/441 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR THE
BI-STATE REGION TODAY.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT US
THIS COLD AIR IS FINALLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AND WE SHOULD
BE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.  THERE`S STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL
BE ANY RAIN ON SATURDAY.  GFS AND NAM HAVE MOVED THE PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWFA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STILL THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON SATURDAY...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET.  I AM PUTTING MORE STOCK IN THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF
ITS CONSISTENCY...I SIMPLY DON`T TRUST THE GFS AND NAM BECAUSE OF
THE WAY THEY HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OUT BEYOND SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TRANQUIL
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING +10C TO
+12C AIR AT 850MB UP INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GRIDDED GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE...IF A BIT WARM...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP AROUND 5-8 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1244 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE STUBBORNLY HANGING ACR MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WL KEEP LO LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED S OF OUR
FA...SO TAF WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE 24-36 HRS. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN OUT OF
THE E-NE...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 8 KTS.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 131717
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009


...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CARRY A COUPLE OF FEATURES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONE SUCH VORTICITY MAX IS NOT VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS DENOTES ITS EXISTENCE AND IS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AS TRACKING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT
EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THAT COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING SPELLS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. ONCE AGAIN
WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS HAS BECOME NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH RETREATING
SURFACE HIGH. MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/NM IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR
EAST-NORTHEAST AND IT TOO WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY TO LEAVE US DRY BUT WITH A CONTINUED DOSE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. NORTHERN MO MAY LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUN THAN SOUTHERN 1/2
OF CWA. SO...ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY MAY POSE A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SPARSE SIDE BUT HAVE CONCERNS THE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MID CLOUD DECK THAT COULD
LIMIT HEATING AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ON MONDAY...ALL POINT TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. PRONOUNCED
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD WITH
GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST THROUGH MO.
ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO 10C+ ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70S
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT HIGHS COULD BE ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING ALL IN. BETTER TO LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM
SO AS NOT TO END UP FLIP-FLOPPING.

19

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS CONTINUE TO BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 6-10 KFT. STARTING TO SEE SOME THINNING VIA VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME BREAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB
6KT...AND WILL BE PERIODICALLY VARIABLE BETWEEN A SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 131704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND A LENGTHY FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ECHOS DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR ACROSS EAST KANSAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300K SURFACE.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING BELOW 4000 FEET. ANY HYDROMETEORS
THAT DO FALL WILL AID IN COLUMN SATURATION AND A LOWERING OF
CLOUD CEILINGS.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CARRY THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL RESIDE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WITH A MILD AIRMASS SPREADING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS NEXT 24 HOURS AS
STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY AIR THAT WILL
KEEP LOWER LEVELS DRY AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 131221
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
721 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND A LENGTHY FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ECHOS DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR ACROSS EAST KANSAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300K SURFACE.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING BELOW 4000 FEET. ANY HYDROMETEORS
THAT DO FALL WILL AID IN COLUMN SATURATION AND A LOWERING OF
CLOUD CEILINGS.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CARRY THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL RESIDE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WITH A MILD AIRMASS SPREADING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

ANGLE


&&

.AVIATION...

STRATUS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT AT
THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT CEILINGS FROM DROPPING ANY LOWER.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RISE LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FEED INTO THE OZARKS FROM THE EAST. OTHERWISE EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 131120
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CARRY A COUPLE OF FEATURES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONE SUCH VORTICITY MAX IS NOT VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS DENOTES ITS EXISTENCE AND IS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AS TRACKING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT
EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THAT COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING SPELLS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. ONCE AGAIN
WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS HAS BECOME NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH RETREATING
SURFACE HIGH. MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/NM IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR
EAST-NORTHEAST AND IT TOO WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY TO LEAVE US DRY BUT WITH A CONTINUED DOSE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. NORTHERN MO MAY LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUN THAN SOUTHERN 1/2
OF CWA. SO...ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY MAY POSE A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SPARSE SIDE BUT HAVE CONCERNS THE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MID CLOUD DECK THAT COULD
LIMIT HEATING AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ON MONDAY...ALL POINT TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. PRONOUNCED
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD WITH
GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST THROUGH MO.
ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO 10C+ ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70S
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT HIGHS COULD BE ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING ALL IN. BETTER TO LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM
SO AS NOT TO END UP FLIP-FLOPPING.

19

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 6K AND 10K FT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH
MORE SCT COVERAGE PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
PERIOD. SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 6KT...AND WILL BE
PERIODICALLY VARIABLE BETWEEN A SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 131111
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
611 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/441 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR THE
BI-STATE REGION TODAY.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT US
THIS COLD AIR IS FINALLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AND WE SHOULD
BE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.  THERE`S STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL
BE ANY RAIN ON SATURDAY.  GFS AND NAM HAVE MOVED THE PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWFA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STILL THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON SATURDAY...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET.  I AM PUTTING MORE STOCK IN THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF
ITS CONSISTENCY...I SIMPLY DON`T TRUST THE GFS AND NAM BECAUSE OF
THE WAY THEY HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OUT BEYOND SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TRANQUIL
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING +10C TO
+12C AIR AT 850MB UP INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GRIDDED GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE...IF A BIT WARM...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP AROUND 5-8 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/555 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SE PRODUCING LIGHT E TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE
APPEARS TO BE HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE MID DECK...AS IT IS HAVING
TROUBLE ADVANCING EAST. STILL THINK THAT AREA/PATCHES OF MID
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KCOU
STANDING THE BEST SHOT AT BKN CONDITIONS.

MILLER

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 130941
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/441 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009/
ONE MORE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE FOR THE
BI-STATE REGION TODAY.  THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT US
THIS COLD AIR IS FINALLY DRIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AND WE SHOULD
BE ON THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.  THERE`S STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL
BE ANY RAIN ON SATURDAY.  GFS AND NAM HAVE MOVED THE PRECIP EAST OF
THE CWFA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STILL THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING PRECIP ON SATURDAY...AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF IS STILL WET.  I AM PUTTING MORE STOCK IN THE ECMWF BECAUSE OF
ITS CONSISTENCY...I SIMPLY DON`T TRUST THE GFS AND NAM BECAUSE OF
THE WAY THEY HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OUT BEYOND SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TRANQUIL
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING +10C TO
+12C AIR AT 850MB UP INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GRIDDED GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE...IF A BIT WARM...SO HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP AROUND 5-8 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1116 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SFC RDG EXTDG FM SWRN WI E THRU NY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD. SFC WNDS WILL REMAIN E-NELY AT ABOUT 5-8 KTS THRU THE
PD. MID-HI LVL CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT WILL CONT TO ADVCT EWD
THRU THE TAF SITES.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 130913
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
413 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CARRY A COUPLE OF FEATURES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONE SUCH VORTICITY MAX IS NOT VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS DENOTES ITS EXISTENCE AND IS DEPICTED BY THE NAM AS TRACKING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT
EFFECT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. THAT COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING SPELLS SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING. ONCE AGAIN
WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS HAS BECOME NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH RETREATING
SURFACE HIGH. MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB YIELDS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER AZ/NM IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR
EAST-NORTHEAST AND IT TOO WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY TO LEAVE US DRY BUT WITH A CONTINUED DOSE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. NORTHERN MO MAY LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUN THAN SOUTHERN 1/2
OF CWA. SO...ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY
HOMOGENEOUS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY MAY POSE A PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SPARSE SIDE BUT HAVE CONCERNS THE
TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MID CLOUD DECK THAT COULD
LIMIT HEATING AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF AND
NAM ON MONDAY...ALL POINT TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. PRONOUNCED
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD WITH
GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EAST THROUGH MO.
ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO 10C+ ON
MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70S
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS EVEN WARMER AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE THAT HIGHS COULD BE ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WARMER
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING ALL IN. BETTER TO LEAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM
SO AS NOT TO END UP FLIP-FLOPPING.

19

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS EXTENSIVE
MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK COVERS TERMINAL CORRIDOR. CIGS WILL HAVE AN
OPERATIONALLY INSIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY BETWEEN 7K-10K FT INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...WITH MORE SCT COVERAGE PROBABLE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP AN ELY SFC FETCH THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 130801
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST INCLUDE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND A LENGTHY FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO NEAR 8000 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ECHOS DEPICTED ON REGIONAL RADAR ACROSS EAST KANSAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 300K SURFACE.
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST TODAY DUE TO A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING BELOW 4000 FEET. ANY HYDROMETEORS
THAT DO FALL WILL AID IN COLUMN SATURATION AND A LOWERING OF
CLOUD CEILINGS.

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CARRY THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARKS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL RESIDE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
WITH A MILD AIRMASS SPREADING OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET AFFECTING BOTH
JLN/SGF TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY FLOW STILL KEEPING LOWER CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. JLN COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS TOWARDS MORNING AND HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY AFTER 12Z...BUT KEPT SGF IN THE VFR CEILINGS.

LINDENBERG


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$