[top]
000
FXUS62 KRAH 150542
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION TODAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY...
...A CHILLY SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY EVENING... A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED
OFF THE JESERY SHORE... BUT EXTENDED SW ACROSS VA/NC/SC AND INTO GA
IN CLASSICAL DAMMING FORM. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO BE FROM
THE NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH THE ACTUAL CAD BOUNDARY ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN SC/GA... AND HAD PUSHED WEST TO THE
APPALACHIAN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NC/TN MOUNTAINS... WHERE IT WAS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S ALONG AND EAST OF BOONE AND JEFFERSON... AND IN THE LOWER
50S AT BRISTOL/TRI CITIES TENNESSEE.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA... WITH THE WELL FORECAST LULL IN THE
RAIN NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... THERE WAS
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-310K LEVELS FOR THE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WHERE IT IS NOT RAINING... THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE FALLING. WE WILL MAINTAIN 100 POP OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF OF AROUND 0.10 TO 0.25 SW.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES IN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WAS SEEN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NE THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS OVERSPREADING THE GULF COAST STATES
HEADED NE TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL
OF CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.50
TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT... EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY FROM THE SW
AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADILY OR FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES...38-43.
SUNDAY...
THE THIRD STRAIGHT CHILLY RAINY DAY MAY END UP BEING THE WETTEST OFT
THE THREE... AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE US SW PHASES WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
FORCES A ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST NE TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW A 500MB VORT MAX SCOOTING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-22Z...WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00 INCH OF QPF.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE..ALTHOUGH THE 20-30KT FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ISOBARS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY DECENT
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH AND MODEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIP MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
SHOWERY. A LIMITATION TO THE RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FACT THAT
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
EASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVING
IN THE WEST BY 21Z. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF TO JUST SOME DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ITS GONNA BE
TOUGH TO GET TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (AS HIGH AS 51
AT GSO). WILL UNDERCUT THIS ONCE AGAIN AND GO WITH 45-50 NW-SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE
WET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM SUNDAY...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE SW FLOW AT AND ABOVE 3000FT PULLS WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE COOL STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SCENARIO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME...MODERATE RAIN APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 22Z SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF FAY THIS AFTERNOON AS A MINOR LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK CROSSES THE REGION. MAY SEE SLY WINDS AT 2000FT CLOSE TO
30KTS. WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM LOCALES TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE OCCURS.
TONIGHT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH AREAS OF FOG. FOG SHOULD REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND A MILE
OR TWO AT MOST LOCALES WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG (A HALF MILE OR
LESS VISIBILITY) POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...ANOTHER PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS TO OUR
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN TO THE SE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC WITH SPOTTY RAIN
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO THE HIGH END IFR OR
LOW END MVFR BY LATE MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE OUR TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPS TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...WSS
[top]
000
FXUS62 KILM 150522
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...MOST OF THE ILM CWA IS HIGH AND DRY IN SPITE
OF A WEAK BUT CHILLY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
DELMARVA. FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINS MOSTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...AND THE CLOSEST PRECIP THAT COULD TRACK IN OUR
DIRECTION IS BACK ACROSS NE GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT...POPS AND
ESPECIALLY QPF HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION THAT RE-ESTABLISHES THE
WEDGE DOWN TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS A
GOOD BET. JUST DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON
THE NAM AS SEEMS TO BE BETTER WITH THIS COLD WEDGE EVENT. PULLED
THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND A BIT BY SUN AFTN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
TOUGH TEMP FORECAST...BUT KEPT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE LOWER 60S RANGING DOWN TO MID 50S INLAND. OF COURSE THIS
IS TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON HOW FAR THE COASTAL FRONT PENETRATES
INLAND IF AT ALL. ALSO...TEMPS JUST ALONG THE BEACH WILL STAY
COOLER AS WATER TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL AVG TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR PCP...LOOKS LIKE COASTAL AREAS AND MOST OF CWA WILL HAVE
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCP. COUNTING ON ANOTHER MORNING
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN MOST PLACES.
WILL KEEP STEEPER GRADIENT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND. A FEW
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND
CHC OF PCP...BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL BE HARD TO
FORECAST. KEPT GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND INITIALLY AND THEN MOVED
THE AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. OVERALL WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY..COOL WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BE DECREASING.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE TAPERED OFF POPS AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF PRECIP SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FINALLY
PUSHES THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH FROPA SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT
LOW CHANCE LATE THURSDAY DUE TO THIS. MODEL DIVERGENCE BEYOND FRIDAY
MAKES SATURDAY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SO PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART
LOOK VERY SEASONAL EXCEPT FOR ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS WARM SWLY FLOW BRINGS MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER
70S. STILL NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS...WILL BE
PULLED CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING NE ALONG IT. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL KEEP THE
FRONT FROM MOVING INLAND. HOWEVER...A PRICE WILL HAVE TO BE PAID.
BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...CONTINUOUS LOWERED CEILINGS
WILL OCCUR...FOG POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES POSSIBLY GOIN WELL INTO THE
DAY SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE AND YES FINALLY SOME RAIN. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT AND HAVE KEPT THEM
NE-ESE UNDER 9 KT DURING THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. HAVE DISCOUNTED ANY
FURTHER VEERING FROM SE WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE STILL MODULATED
BY WATER TEMPS...WITH 17 KT IN THE WARM WATERS AT FRYING PAN BUOY
BUT ONLY 10-14 KT IN THE CHILLY NEARSHORE WATERS. COMBINED SEAS
ARE 5 FT AT 41013 BUT 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE...WITH NE WIND WAVE AND AN
11 SECOND ESE SWELL. EXPECT PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO OVERNIGHT.
HAVE REMOVED THE SCEC HEADLINE AS WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET 5
FOOTERS WITHIN 20NM...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN WINDS BY SUNDAY AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND
AND AN ON SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A SHORT TIME THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL SEE N-NE FLOW THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NELY GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEAS
UP INTO THE 5 FT RANGE. SEAS MODERATE AFTER THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH...SO EXPECT WINDS TO TOP OUT IN THE
15 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...STEVE
SHORT TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS
LONG TERM...KREITNER
AVIATION...HOEHLER
000
FXUS62 KRAH 150209
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
958 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
BE PUSHED TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY...
...A CHILLY SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY EVENING... A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED
OFF THE JESERY SHORE... BUT EXTENDED SW ACROSS VA/NC/SC AND INTO GA
IN CLASSICAL DAMMING FORM. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO BE FROM
THE NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH THE ACTUAL CAD BOUNDARY ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN SC/GA... AND HAD PUSHED WEST TO THE
APPALACHIAN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NC/TN MOUNTAINS... WHERE IT WAS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S ALONG AND EAST OF BOONE AND JEFFERSON... AND IN THE LOWER
50S AT BRISTOL/TRI CITIES TENNESSEE.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA... WITH THE WELL FORECAST LULL IN THE
RAIN NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... THERE WAS
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-310K LEVELS FOR THE PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WHERE IT IS NOT RAINING... THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE FALLING. WE WILL MAINTAIN 100 POP OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF OF AROUND 0.10 TO 0.25 SW.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES IN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WAS SEEN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NE THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS OVERSPREADING THE GULF COAST STATES
HEADED NE TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL
OF CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.50
TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT... EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY FROM THE SW
AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADILY OR FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES...38-43.
SUNDAY...
THE THIRD STRAIGHT CHILLY RAINY DAY MAY END UP BEING THE WETTEST OFT
THE THREE... AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE US SW PHASES WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
FORCES A ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST NE TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW A 500MB VORT MAX SCOOTING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-22Z...WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00 INCH OF QPF.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE..ALTHOUGH THE 20-30KT FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ISOBARS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY DECENT
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH AND MODEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIP MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
SHOWERY. A LIMITATION TO THE RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FACT THAT
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
EASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVING
IN THE WEST BY 21Z. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF TO JUST SOME DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ITS GONNA BE
TOUGH TO GET TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (AS HIGH AS 51
AT GSO). WILL UNDERCUT THIS ONCE AGAIN AND GO WITH 45-50 NW-SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE
WET.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
(THROUGH 00Z MON). COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN LIKELY
FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18-21Z SUNDAY AS OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN-BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BLS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...VINCENT/ADS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 150159
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
958 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
BE PUSHED TO THE COAST BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY...
...A CHILLY SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...
AS OF 958 PM SATURDAY EVENING... A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED
OFF THE JESERY SHORE... BUT EXTENDED SW ACROSS VA/NC/SC AND INTO GA
IN CLASSICAL DAMMING FORM. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO BE FROM
THE NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH THE ACTUAL CAD BOUNDARY ALL
THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN SC/GA... AND HAD PUSHED WEST TO THE
APPALACHIAN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NC/TN MOUNTAINS... WHERE IT WAS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S ALONG AND EAST OF BOONE AND JEFFERSON... AND IN THE LOWER
50S AT BRISTOL/TRI CITIES TENNESSEE.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND NE NORTH CAROLINA... WITH THE WELL FORECAST LULL IN THE
RAIN NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... THERE WAS
DRIZZLE FALLING OVER MOST AREAS WHERE THE STEADY RAIN HAD
DIMINISHED.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES IN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WAS SEEN ON THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING NE THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS OVERSPREADING THE GULF COAST STATES
HEADED NE TOWARD THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR
LATER TONIGHT. THIS HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT... EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY FROM THE SW
AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADILY OR FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES...38-43.
SUNDAY...
THE THIRD STRAIGHT CHILLY RAINY DAY MAY END UP BEING THE WETTEST OFT
THE THREE... AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE US SW PHASES WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
FORCES A ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST NE TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW A 500MB VORT MAX SCOOTING ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-22Z...WITH AS MUCH AS 1.00 INCH OF QPF.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE..ALTHOUGH THE 20-30KT FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE PARALLEL TO THE
ISOBARS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY DECENT
WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH AND MODEST UPPER
DIVERGENCE. WITH BETTER UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIP MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
SHOWERY. A LIMITATION TO THE RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FACT THAT
THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
EASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVING
IN THE WEST BY 21Z. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN ON
SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF TO JUST SOME DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ITS GONNA BE
TOUGH TO GET TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (AS HIGH AS 51
AT GSO). WILL UNDERCUT THIS ONCE AGAIN AND GO WITH 45-50 NW-SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE
WET.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
(THROUGH 00Z MON). COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN LIKELY
FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18-21Z SUNDAY AS OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN-BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BLS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...VINCENT/ADS
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMHX 150158
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
958 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND STALL JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE BACK OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO CURRENT FCST.
ISENT LIFT HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER NRN PART OF CWA PAST 24 HOURS AND
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE/RDR TRENDS FAVOR THAT CONT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS RANGING FROM CAT N TO CHC S CST LOOK GOOD. OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN.
SHLD SEE LITTLE TEMP CHANGE WITH AROUND 40 NRN CSTL PLAIN TO MID 40S
S CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...STILL A TOUGH FORECAST. THE OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE SUNDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST WEST OF A GREENE COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY
LINE. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
EAST OF THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE SW FLOW.
AGAIN THE FORECAST FOLLOWED THE NAM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED
MOST AREAS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED WEST AND NORTH
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS AND DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN AN AREA THAT THE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MINIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION. POPS WILL BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO CHANCE ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST MID EVENING. RETURN TO
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FOG. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY BACK TO LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. THE MAV/MET POPS HAVE INCREASED TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AND THE NEW HPC QPF FORECAST IS INDICATING THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH 0.75 TO 1"
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL LOW WITH FORECAST DETAILS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS IS
DRY...THE NAM INDICATES A CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER THEN CLEARING
WHILE THE NORMALLY TOUGH TO BEAT ECMWF INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RAINS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF I WILL FORECAST DRYING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND CLOUDY SKIES CLEARING ON TUESDAY. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
APPROACH LATE THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE N WITH
A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR ERN NC THROUGH SUN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE WEDGE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUN AND WILL SERVE TO
PULL THE TROUGH N ACROSS ERN NC. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING
THE FRONT TO ABOUT A KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE LINE BY MID DAY
SUN. LIGHT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT PGV AND POSSIBLY
ISO SUN...BUT EWN AND OAJ WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT S/SELY WINDS
DEVELOP BY MID DAY SUN.
A PERSISTENT OVERRUNNING PATTERS WILL LIKELY BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES THROUGH TUE MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH NEAR THE REGION AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES LIFT NE ALONG
THE TROUGH. 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING
AND HOW FAR N THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WHICH LIFT THE TROUGH TO A
KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE LINE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z SUN WITH LIGHT
S/SELY WINDS DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT. THE NAM/ECMWF MODELS
PREFERRED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND FOR SUN NIGHT/MON
TIMEFRAME WHICH IS FASTER TO PULL THE LOW PRES E OF THE
REGION...AND SUBSEQUENTLY FASTER TO PUSH THE TROUGH S BRINGING A
RETURN TO NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. ADJ OFFSHORE FCST
A BIT STRONGER FOR SUN...ESP ALONG S WATERS. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR
WATERS >75 NM OFFSHORE WHERE GULF STREAM AND WINDS S OF THE SFC
LOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...WHILE WATERS ADJ TO OUR NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL BE CLOSER TO 4 FT AND <20KT.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION MON HOWEVER A ROBUST MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN COASTALS WATERS WHERE A GREATER NLY FETCH
COULD LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE LOW PUSHES WELL E OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE REGION WED NIGHT WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THU
NIGHT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK/SJ
MARINE...SK/SJ
000
FXUS62 KMHX 150010
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
810 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND STALL JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE BACK OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO CURRENT FCST.
ISENT LIFT HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER NRN PART OF CWA PAST 24 HOURS AND
LATEST MDL GUIDANCE/RDR TRENDS FAVOR THAT CONT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS RANGING FROM CAT N TO CHC S CST LOOK GOOD. OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN.
SHLD SEE LITTLE TEMP CHANGE WITH AROUND 40 NRN CSTL PLAIN TO MID 40S
S CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...STILL A TOUGH FORECAST. THE OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE SUNDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST WEST OF A GREENE COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY
LINE. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
EAST OF THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE SW FLOW.
AGAIN THE FORECAST FOLLOWED THE NAM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED
MOST AREAS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED WEST AND NORTH
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS AND DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN AN AREA THAT THE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MINIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION. POPS WILL BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO CHANCE ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST MID EVENING. RETURN TO
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FOG. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY BACK TO LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. THE MAV/MET POPS HAVE INCREASED TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AND THE NEW HPC QPF FORECAST IS INDICATING THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH 0.75 TO 1"
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL LOW WITH FORECAST DETAILS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS IS
DRY...THE NAM INDICATES A CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER THEN CLEARING
WHILE THE NORMALLY TOUGH TO BEAT ECMWF INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RAINS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF I WILL FORECAST DRYING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND CLOUDY SKIES CLEARING ON TUESDAY. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
APPROACH LATE THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE N WITH A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR ERN NC THROUGH SUN.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE WEDGE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUN
AND WILL SERVE TO PULL THE TROUGH N ACROSS ERN NC. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO ABOUT A KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE
LINE BY MID DAY SUN. LIGHT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT PGV
AND POSSIBLY ISO SUN...BUT EWN AND OAJ WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT S/SELY
WINDS DEVELOP BY MID DAY SUN.
A PERSISTENT OVERRUNNING PATTERS WILL LIKELY BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES THROUGH TUE MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AREA OBS REPORTING LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING WITH DIAMOND
BUOY AT 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND 44014 NOW AT 5 FT AS WELL AND
HAVE CANCELED THE SCA EARLY. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WITH A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE REGION AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES LIFT NE ALONG THE TROUGH. 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND HOW FAR N THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WHICH
LIFT THE TROUGH TO A KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE LINE BETWEEN 12 AND
18Z SUN WITH LIGHT S/SELY WINDS DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM/ECMWF MODELS PREFERRED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME WHICH IS FASTER TO PULL THE LOW PRES E OF
THE REGION...AND SUBSEQUENTLY FASTER TO PUSH THE TROUGH S BRINGING A
RETURN TO NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION MON HOWEVER A ROBUST MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN COASTALS WATERS WHERE A GREATER NLY FETCH
COULD LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE LOW PUSHES WELL E OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE REGION WED NIGHT WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THU
NIGHT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
000
FXUS62 KRAH 142352
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MONDAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
RAINY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...A 1013MB LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MS/AL
BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION. DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
EXTENDED FROM VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS SWRD TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. A DEEP...LONG MOISTURE FEED CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR FROM SSM/I PASSES. FURTHER WEST...TWO
CYCLONIC VORTICES WERE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...ONE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SW US.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A LULL IN COVERAGE COMING SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET. THE LOSS IN
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AS IT PASSES NW OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K
LAYER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADILY OR FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES...36-43.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT OF TODAY...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE US SW PHASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS FORCES A ANOTHER SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST NE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS
SHOW A 500MB VORT MAX SCOOTING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY
15-21Z...WITH AS MUCH AS .50"-.75" OF QPF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE..ALTHOUGH THE
20-30KT FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE PARALLEL TO THE ISOBARS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY DECENT WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE. WITH BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIP MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SHOWERY. A LIMITATION
TO THE RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE WEST BY
21Z. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF
TO JUST SOME DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ITS GONNA BE
TOUGH TO GET TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (AS HIGH AS 51
AT GSO). WILL UNDERCUT THIS ONCE AGAIN AND GO WITH 45-50 NW-SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE
WET.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
(THROUGH 00Z MON). COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN LIKELY
FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 18-21Z SUNDAY AS OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
LIFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN-BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...VINCENT/ADS
000
FXUS62 KILM 142316
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
716 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...MOST OF THE ILM CWA IS HIGH AND DRY IN SPITE
OF A WEAK BUT CHILLY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
DELMARVA. FOCUS FOR RAINFALL REMAINS MOSTLY ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT...AND THE CLOSEST PRECIP THAT COULD TRACK IN OUR
DIRECTION IS BACK ACROSS NE GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT...POPS AND
ESPECIALLY QPF HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE NAM SOLUTION THAT RE-ESTABLISHES THE
WEDGE DOWN TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...SO PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS A
GOOD BET. JUST DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON
THE NAM AS SEEMS TO BE BETTER WITH THIS COLD WEDGE EVENT. PULLED
THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND A BIT BY SUN AFTN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
TOUGH TEMP FORECAST...BUT KEPT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE LOWER 60S RANGING DOWN TO MID 50S INLAND. OF COURSE THIS
IS TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON HOW FAR THE COASTAL FRONT PENETRATES
INLAND IF AT ALL. ALSO...TEMPS JUST ALONG THE BEACH WILL STAY
COOLER AS WATER TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL AVG TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR PCP...LOOKS LIKE COASTAL AREAS AND MOST OF CWA WILL HAVE
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCP. COUNTING ON ANOTHER MORNING
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN MOST PLACES.
WILL KEEP STEEPER GRADIENT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND. A FEW
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND
CHC OF PCP...BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL BE HARD TO
FORECAST. KEPT GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND INITIALLY AND THEN MOVED
THE AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. OVERALL WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY..COOL WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BE DECREASING.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE TAPERED OFF POPS AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF PRECIP SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FINALLY
PUSHES THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH FROPA SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT
LOW CHANCE LATE THURSDAY DUE TO THIS. MODEL DIVERGENCE BEYOND FRIDAY
MAKES SATURDAY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SO PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART
LOOK VERY SEASONAL EXCEPT FOR ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS WARM SWLY FLOW BRINGS MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER
70S. STILL NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE HOLDS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NOT
BUDGE...REMAINING IFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS
SEVERAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS TRACK NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE STILL MODULATED
BY WATER TEMPS...WITH 17 KT IN THE WARM WATERS AT FRYING PAN BUOY
BUT ONLY 10-14 KT IN THE CHILLY NEARSHORE WATERS. COMBINED SEAS
ARE 5 FT AT 41013 BUT 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE...WITH NE WIND WAVE AND AN
11 SECOND ESE SWELL. EXPECT PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO OVERNIGHT.
HAVE REMOVED THE SCEC HEADLINE AS WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET 5
FOOTERS WITHIN 20NM...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF FRYING PAN
SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN WINDS BY SUNDAY AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND
AND AN ON SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A SHORT TIME THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL SEE N-NE FLOW THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NELY GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEAS
UP INTO THE 5 FT RANGE. SEAS MODERATE AFTER THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH...SO EXPECT WINDS TO TOP OUT IN THE
15 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RAS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...DL
000
FXUS62 KMHX 142002
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
402 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND STALL JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE BACK OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...THE BEST
BEST ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL FORECAST A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM
WEST/NORTH (HIGHEST) AND SOUTHEAST (LOWEST). THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UP GLIDE IS SUFFICIENT THOUGH FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE BUT LITTLE IF ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MEASURABLE
IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. SKIES WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH
LOW CLOUDS IN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN AND IN COMBINATION WITH
NE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE CHILLY 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...STILL A TOUGH FORECAST. THE OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT ONSHORE SUNDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST WEST OF A GREENE COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY
LINE. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
EAST OF THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE SW FLOW.
AGAIN THE FORECAST FOLLOWED THE NAM WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED
MOST AREAS. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CARRIED WEST AND NORTH
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY POPS FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS AND DOWN EAST CARTERET COUNTY WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE IN AN AREA THAT THE MODEL IS FORECASTING A MINIMUM IN
PRECIPITATION. POPS WILL BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO CHANCE ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST MID EVENING. RETURN TO
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY FOG. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY BACK TO LIKELY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA. THE MAV/MET POPS HAVE INCREASED TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AND THE NEW HPC QPF FORECAST IS INDICATING THAT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH 0.75 TO 1"
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL LOW WITH FORECAST DETAILS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS IS
DRY...THE NAM INDICATES A CHANCE OF A MORNING SHOWER THEN CLEARING
WHILE THE NORMALLY TOUGH TO BEAT ECMWF INDICATES SIGNIFICANT RAINS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF I WILL FORECAST DRYING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND CLOUDY SKIES CLEARING ON TUESDAY. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACH
LATE THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE N WITH A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR ERN NC THROUGH SUN.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE WEDGE WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SUN
AND WILL SERVE TO PULL THE TROUGH N ACROSS ERN NC. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONT TO ABOUT A KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE
LINE BY MID DAY SUN. LIGHT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT PGV
AND POSSIBLY ISO SUN...BUT EWN AND OAJ WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT S/SELY
WINDS DEVELOP BY MID DAY SUN.
A PERSISTENT OVERRUNNING PATTERS WILL LIKELY BRING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES THROUGH TUE MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TUE INTO THU AS HIGH PRES AND
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AREA OBS REPORTING LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS ALSO SUBSIDING WITH DIAMOND
BUOY AT 5 FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND 44014 NOW AT 5 FT AS WELL AND
HAVE CANCELED THE SCA EARLY. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WITH A COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE REGION AND A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES LIFT NE ALONG THE TROUGH. 12Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND HOW FAR N THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WHICH
LIFT THE TROUGH TO A KITTY HAWK TO KENANSVILLE LINE BETWEEN 12 AND
18Z SUN WITH LIGHT S/SELY WINDS DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM/ECMWF MODELS PREFERRED FOR THE SHORT TERM AND USED A BLEND FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON TIMEFRAME WHICH IS FASTER TO PULL THE LOW PRES E OF
THE REGION...AND SUBSEQUENTLY FASTER TO PUSH THE TROUGH S BRINGING A
RETURN TO NLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION MON HOWEVER A ROBUST MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND TUE WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN COASTALS WATERS WHERE A GREATER NLY FETCH
COULD LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE LOW PUSHES WELL E OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE REGION
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF
THE REGION WED NIGHT WITH SWLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THU
NIGHT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
000
FXUS62 KILM 141909
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...ABUNDANT UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAN
OVER-TOP A SHALLOW BUT COOL MARITIME AIR-MASS WEDGED OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL FOCUS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE ILM ZONES. OUR
FAR NW ZONES STAND THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE CENTRAL AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS A BIT STRONGER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW EPISODES OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE...SO WE`LL CARRY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER MOST AREAS WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER FAR INLAND ZONES.
GIVEN CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND IDEA THAT WEDGE WILL HOLD TOUGH
OVERNIGHT...HAVE OPTED FOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TNGT 41-46.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS OF CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY ON
THE NAM AS SEEMS TO BE BETTER WITH THIS COLD WEDGE EVENT. PULLED
THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND A BIT BY SUN AFTN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
TOUGH TEMP FORECAST...BUT KEPT WITH WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
INTO THE LOWER 60S RANGING DOWN TO MID 50S INLAND. OF COURSE THIS
IS TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON HOW FAR THE COASTAL FRONT PENETRATES
INLAND IF AT ALL. ALSO...TEMPS JUST ALONG THE BEACH WILL STAY
COOLER AS WATER TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DUE TO CLOUD COVER. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL AVG TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AS FOR PCP...LOOKS LIKE COASTAL AREAS AND MOST OF CWA WILL HAVE
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCP. COUNTING ON ANOTHER MORNING
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN MOST PLACES.
WILL KEEP STEEPER GRADIENT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND. A FEW
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AND
CHC OF PCP...BUT EXACT TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL BE HARD TO
FORECAST. KEPT GREATEST CHC OF PCP INLAND INITIALLY AND THEN MOVED
THE AXIS CLOSER TO THE COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. OVERALL WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY..COOL WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BE DECREASING.
PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE TAPERED OFF POPS AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LAST OF PRECIP SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FINALLY
PUSHES THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH FROPA SO
EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT. HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED AT
LOW CHANCE LATE THURSDAY DUE TO THIS. MODEL DIVERGENCE BEYOND FRIDAY
MAKES SATURDAY A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SO PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART
LOOK VERY SEASONAL EXCEPT FOR ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS WARM SWLY FLOW BRINGS MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LOWER
70S. STILL NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
SURFACE WEDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THUS IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY DZ WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS
WELL...THEN -RA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SEAS HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WAVE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED IN 11 SECOND ESE SWELL AND
5-6 SECOND WAVE ENERGY FROM THE ENE. THIS SEA STATE SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT IN MODERATE NE WIND FLOW AND LINGERING ESE
SWELL. LOWEST SEAS WILL FOUND ALONG SOUTH FACING NEAR SHORE BEACHES
OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHEST WAVES AROUND 5 FT ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS EXPOSED TO NE FETCH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL SEE A SHIFT IN WINDS BY SUNDAY AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND
AND AN ON SHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A SHORT TIME THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL SEE N-NE FLOW THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. NELY GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE FORMERLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEAS
UP INTO THE 5 FT RANGE. SEAS MODERATE AFTER THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF FRONT
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK THOUGH...SO EXPECT WINDS TO TOP OUT IN THE
15 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SRP
000
FXUS62 KRAH 141850
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MONDAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...
RAINY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS OF 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...A 1013MB LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MS/AL
BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION. DEEP MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
EXTENDED FROM VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS SWRD TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. A DEEP...LONG MOISTURE FEED CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR FROM SSM/I PASSES. FURTHER WEST...TWO
CYCLONIC VORTICES WERE COULD BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY...ONE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ANOTHER OVER THE SW US.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
A LULL IN COVERAGE COMING SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET. THE LOSS IN
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHEAR
OUT AS IT PASSES NW OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K
LAYER IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT THIS EVENING...BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADILY OR FALL A
COUPLE DEGREES...36-43.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT OF TODAY...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE US SW PHASES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS FORCES A ANOTHER SURFACE
WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST NE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS
SHOW A 500MB VORT MAX SCOOTING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY
15-21Z...WITH AS MUCH AS .50"-.75" OF QPF. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE..ALTHOUGH THE
20-30KT FLOW IS A LITTLE MORE PARALLEL TO THE ISOBARS. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY DECENT WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH AND MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE. WITH BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIP MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SHOWERY. A LIMITATION
TO THE RAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE WEST BY
21Z. SO EXPECTING ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING RAIN ON SUNDAY...TAPERING OFF
TO JUST SOME DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ITS GONNA BE
TOUGH TO GET TEMPS TO RISE VERY MUCH ON SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...WHILE WEAK COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST WILL HELP KEEP A WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 (AS HIGH AS 51
AT GSO). WILL UNDERCUT THIS ONCE AGAIN AND GO WITH 45-50 NW-SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE WET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE COLD AIR RIDGING WITH A NORTH
EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL ALSO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVER ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOW AND AREAS
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
COOLS SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD...BUT
ANY TERMINAL ACROSS CENTRAL NC COULD BE AFFECTED.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CAUSE CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...BLS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 141832
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MONDAY AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1040 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 12Z OBS ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
GULF COAST NEAR LA HAD AMPLIFIED TO 1013MB. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE FLA BORDER. CEILINGS WERE BELOW 1000
FEET ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING FROM
BASICALLY RDU WESTWARD. ALOFT...THE 850MB WARM FRONT WAS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA...WITH AN AREA OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE
NOTED THROUGH OUR CWA. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE STILL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS AL/GA. ONLY A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCE VISIBLE
IN THE 500 AND 250MB OBS...BUT WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE FLOW IS A
LITTLE MORE DISTURBED.
NOT MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW. LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LEXINGTON TO GREENSBORO HAVE RECEIVED
FROM A 0.1-0.25" SO FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
STEADY OR RISE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. THE BEST RISES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATER. -
SMITH
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PARENT HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A DISTINCT S/W SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY. THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE) TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL NOT SEE
TEMPS FLUCTUATE TOO MUCH. FAVORED THE CHILLIER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR
TODAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WHEN PRECIP IS
FACTORED IN.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SURFACE BASED COOL STABLE LAYER
SHRINKING WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS PARENT SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESENTLY...DO
NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH SOME
FOG POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WITH THE UPPER FLOW HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE STEADY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AS
THE AREA FALLS UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN INCREASE
IS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH YOU GO BUT EVERYONE WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE AT SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
IN AREAS FROM FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS MONDAY MORNING
REMAIN IN THE 40S BUT HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE TRICKY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE COULD BE A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS IN
THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE REACH 50 IN
THE NORTH AND WEST.
DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY ALLOWING SUNSHINE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
THICKNESSES BY ABOUT 10 METERS ON TUESDAY BUT EVEN AVERAGE
THICKNESSES ARE POINTING TOWARDS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. IN FACT
UPPER 60S COULD BE ATTACHED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. A COOL
NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE AIRMASS DRY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL WELL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RETURN FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ON WEDNESDAY DESPITE JUST
A FEW SHALLOW CU CLOUDS ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER60S
TO AROUND 70. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT LOW CLOUD IN THE FORM AND
STRATUS AND SOME FOG BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND RATHER MILD
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOW MUCH HEATING
IS EXPERIENCED WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY FROM
RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
EVEN MIDDLE 70S. WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
THE FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NW TO SE AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH. MOST OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND MANY AREAS MAY NOT EXPERIENCE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
UNTIL RATHER LATE IN THE DAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY USHERING
IN SOME SEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. MODELS VARY SOME ON NEXT SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A LITTLE WET.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE COLD AIR RIDGING WITH A NORTH
EASTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL ALSO THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVER ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOW AND AREAS
OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER
COOLS SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD...BUT
ANY TERMINAL ACROSS CENTRAL NC COULD BE AFFECTED.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL
CAUSE CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...JO
LONG TERM...JO
AVIATION...BLS
000
FXUS62 KILM 141819
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...TONS OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NC VA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A STEADY FEED
OF COOL AND MOIST MARITIME AIR INTO THE AREA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WITH OCEAN COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY
BRING INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST GFS WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
ALLOWING STALLED SFC FRONT TO LIFT N. THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED
SOLUTION AS BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE WEDGE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. TYPICALLY THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SFC RIDGE EARLY...WITH
THE NAM USUALLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS. THIS EVENT APPEARS
TO BE NO DIFFERENT THUS LATEST FORECAST IS NAM BASED.
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUN ENHANCING
ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT. MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED POPS IN
THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR SUN. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIP SUN NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES SOME
NVA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY S.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD MON MORNING...SETTING OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP. DID NOT GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS SOME OF THE MOS
IS SUGGESTING JUST YET SINCE TIMING THE SHORT WAVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN POPS
DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. DID BUMP UP POPS FROM 30S AND
40S TO 60S AND 70S. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AVG TEMPS CLOSE
TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SFC HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AND BOTH SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE
CAROLINAS. KEPT EXTENDED PERIOD DRY DESPITE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRECIP FOR THU NIGHT OR FRI. TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FRONT EXIST AT THIS POINT. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO TUE BUT
SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING WED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH AT
LEAST THU. POST FRONT TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AS AREAS OF -RA DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. COULD SEE CIGS RISE TO MVFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE KFLO AND
KLBT WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SEAS RUNNING 3-5 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WAVE
ENERGY CONCENTRATED MOSTLY IN 12 SECOND ESE SWELL AND 7-8 SECOND
WAVE NERFGY FROM THE ENE. THIS SEA STATE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOLDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED S OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS TUE WILL END
BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT.
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS
TO 6 FT...BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN SCEC BEING REQUIRED FOR A FEW
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SE AND FINALLY S IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER/COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...LEBO
LONG TERM...LEBO
AVIATION...SRP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 141442
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1042 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM SATURDAY...IT IS NOW APPARENT THAT THE BEST
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
UP GLIDE IS SUFFICIENT THOUGH FOR AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT LITTLE
IF ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MEASURABLE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE PERSISTENT WEDGE PATTERN AND IN
COMBINATION WITH NE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE CHILLY 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TNGT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE WET ACRS
EASTERN NC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE
STATES AND SHUD HELP DIRECT MAIN PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. CAT POPS WILL BE FCST OVR INLAND AND NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. WENT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY EASILY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE WET MODEL
TRENDS CONT TODAY. SHUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. PHASING OF
STREAMS OVR MSVLY ON MONDAY SUGGS ANTHR ROUND OF STEADY PCPN PSBL
AS THE PHASED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. GFS STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE
ASSOCD PCPN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF DEPICTING A WET
DAY OVR EASTERN NC. HAVE BLENDED THE SOLNS FOR NOW WITH HIGH CHC
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANY LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
COAST AS THE MID LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TUE
MORN.
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW LVL WEDGE WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU MONDAY. HARD TO SEE HOW THE WARM
MAV MOS WOULD VERIFY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PCPN
SO SIDED WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AFTR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES TRAVERSE THE AREA.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCD WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU
THE AREA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGS PCPN CHCS
WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS
INTACT WITH STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT PERIODS OF -DZ AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES NE ALONG IT. THE
SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT N INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME S/SELY S OF THIS
TROUGH. CURRENT PROGS WOULD BRING THE WIND SHIFT TO EWN AND OAJ
WITH PGV AND ISO REMAINING IN NE FLOW...BUT EITHER WAY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUN INTO MON THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...WINDS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUNDS
THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING SO DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE THEM.
OBS AROUND THE SOUNDS SUGGESTING MAINLY 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT PERSISTING THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE AS WELL WITH DIAMOND BUOY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FT. NORTH OF DIAMOND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT AND
ARE 2-5 FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCA FOR SEAS FOR
ZONES N OF OCRACOKE INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING NE ALONG IT THROUGH MON. MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT/TROUGH N INTO THE WATERS...HOWEVER DIFFER SOME WITH TIMING
WITH GFS FASTER...BRINGING N LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM DOES SO
SUN MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SE WINDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LIGHT N WINDS OVER FAR
NORTHERN WATERS. LIGHT TO MDT N/NE WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH
ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THE GFS INDICATES AN
AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO THE S ON MON THEN LIFTS IT NE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO JUST
YET BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP MON NIGHT INTO
TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
WED/THU AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW/SK
MARINE...JW/SK
000
FXUS62 KRAH 141440
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SATURDAY...
AS OF 12Z OBS ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
GULF COAST NEAR LA HAD AMPLIFIED TO 1013MB. THE SURFACE CAD WEDGE
EXTENDED ALL THE WAY TO THE FLA BORDER. CEILINGS WERE BELOW 1000
FEET ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURRING FROM
BASICALLY RDU WESTWARD. ALOFT...THE 850MB WARM FRONT WAS TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL VA...WITH AN AREA OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE
NOTED THROUGH OUR CWA. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE STILL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS AL/GA. ONLY A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCE VISIBLE
IN THE 500 AND 250MB OBS...BUT WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE FLOW IS A
LITTLE MORE DISTURBED.
NOT MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING AS
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW. LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM LEXINGTON TO GREENSBORO HAVE RECEIVED
FROM A 0.1-0.25" SO FAR THIS MORNING. EXPECT A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
STEADY OR RISE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY. THE BEST RISES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATER. -
SMITH
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PARENT HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A DISTINCT S/W SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY. THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE) TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL NOT SEE
TEMPS FLUCTUATE TOO MUCH. FAVORED THE CHILLIER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR
TODAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WHEN PRECIP IS
FACTORED IN.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SURFACE BASED COOL STABLE LAYER
SHRINKING WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS PARENT SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESENTLY...DO
NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO S/W SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH. WEDGE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS REGION...KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST AND TEMPS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID MARCH. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAKENING OF
SURFACE RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. THESE HIGHS ARE STILL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TOO WARM CONSIDERING RESIDUAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND LACK OF A MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THOUGH WEAK...
THE BEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THE EAST. STRONGER
WINDS AT 850 MILLIBARS FAVOR LIFT DYNAMICS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THUS
SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER AND 50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...THEN
SLIPS SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE PERSISTS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS SOUTHWEST
FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS... TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT FULLY TAPPED AS A MOISTURE SOURCE.
THE SHORT WAVE IS RELATIVELY ROBUST... BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
AT THE MID LEVELS. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY BUT THE ABOVE LIMITING FACTORS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED... PERHAPS TO A TENTH INCH OR LESS.
THE AIR MASS ABOVE 5000 FEET DRYS OUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
LEAVING CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY... WHEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
COULD RETURN RAIN TO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS 51
TO 56 MONDAY...REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT TO 61 TO 66 FOR
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY 38 TO 45 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT... THEN MOSTLY MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 AM SATURDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WARM MOST AIR ABOVE 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT
THIS TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 10Z SATURDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS
000
FXUS62 KILM 141405
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...TONS OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NC VA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A STEADY FEED
OF COOL AND MOIST MARITIME AIR INTO THE AREA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WITH OCEAN COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL TODAY. MEANWHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY
BRING INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST GFS WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
ALLOWING STALLED SFC FRONT TO LIFT N. THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED
SOLUTION AS BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE WEDGE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. TYPICALLY THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SFC RIDGE EARLY...WITH
THE NAM USUALLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS. THIS EVENT APPEARS
TO BE NO DIFFERENT THUS LATEST FORECAST IS NAM BASED.
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUN ENHANCING
ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT. MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED POPS IN
THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR SUN. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIP SUN NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES SOME
NVA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY S.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD MON MORNING...SETTING OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP. DID NOT GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS SOME OF THE MOS
IS SUGGESTING JUST YET SINCE TIMING THE SHORT WAVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN POPS
DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. DID BUMP UP POPS FROM 30S AND
40S TO 60S AND 70S. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AVG TEMPS CLOSE
TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SFC HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AND BOTH SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE
CAROLINAS. KEPT EXTENDED PERIOD DRY DESPITE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRECIP FOR THU NIGHT OR FRI. TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF FRONT EXIST AT THIS POINT. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO TUE BUT
SRLY FLOW DEVELOPING WED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH AT
LEAST THU. POST FRONT TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
SURFACE WEDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THUS IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY DZ WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS
WELL...THEN -RA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...SEAS RUNNING 3-5 FEET THIS MORNING WITH WAVE
ENERGY CONCENTRATED MOSTLY IN 12 SECOND ESE SWELL AND 7-8 SECOND
WAVE NERFGY FROM THE ENE. THIS SEA STATE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOLDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED S OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS TUE WILL END
BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT.
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS
TO 6 FT...BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN SCEC BEING REQUIRED FOR A FEW
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SE AND FINALLY S IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER/COLBY
NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...LEBO
LONG TERM...LEBO
AVIATION...SRP
000
FXUS62 KMHX 141402
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1002 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURRING OVR EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORN. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE ARKLATEX REGION SPREADING PCPN ACRS THE LWR MSVLY
AND TNVLY THIS MORN AND THIS WILL PUSH ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE MAIN SWATH OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AIMED NORTH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY BUT
HARD TO RULE OUT PCPN COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW WITH ANY
WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN.
HIGHEST POPS (AND QPF) WILL BE FCST ACRS NORTHERN AREAS BUT KEPT
IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. DAYSHIFT CAN ADJUST
DOWN IF NEEDED DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORN.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED SO DONT EXPECT MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE RISE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY U40S/NR 50 BUT THIS MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER AND COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TNGT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE WET ACRS
EASTERN NC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE
STATES AND SHUD HELP DIRECT MAIN PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. CAT POPS WILL BE FCST OVR INLAND AND NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. WENT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY EASILY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE WET MODEL
TRENDS CONT TODAY. SHUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. PHASING OF
STREAMS OVR MSVLY ON MONDAY SUGGS ANTHR ROUND OF STEADY PCPN PSBL
AS THE PHASED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. GFS STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE
ASSOCD PCPN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF DEPICTING A WET
DAY OVR EASTERN NC. HAVE BLENDED THE SOLNS FOR NOW WITH HIGH CHC
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANY LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
COAST AS THE MID LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TUE
MORN.
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW LVL WEDGE WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU MONDAY. HARD TO SEE HOW THE WARM
MAV MOS WOULD VERIFY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PCPN
SO SIDED WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AFTR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES TRAVERSE THE AREA.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCD WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU
THE AREA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGS PCPN CHCS
WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS
INTACT WITH STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT PERIODS OF -DZ AND
FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES NE ALONG IT. THE
SFC TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT N INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...AS THE LOW PRES AREA TRACKS
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME S/SELY S OF THIS
TROUGH. CURRENT PROGS WOULD BRING THE WIND SHIFT TO EWN AND OAJ
WITH PGV AND ISO REMAINING IN NE FLOW...BUT EITHER WAY WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUN INTO MON THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...WINDS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUNDS
THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING SO DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE THEM.
OBS AROUND THE SOUNDS SUGGESTING MAINLY 15-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT PERSISTING THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH GRADIENTS CONTINUING TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE AS WELL WITH DIAMOND BUOY FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FT. NORTH OF DIAMOND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT AND
ARE 2-5 FT SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCA FOR SEAS FOR
ZONES N OF OCRACOKE INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE REGION WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING NE ALONG IT THROUGH MON. MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT/TROUGH N INTO THE WATERS...HOWEVER DIFFER SOME WITH TIMING
WITH GFS FASTER...BRINGING N LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM DOES SO
SUN MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT S/SE WINDS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LIGHT N WINDS OVER FAR
NORTHERN WATERS. LIGHT TO MDT N/NE WINDS RETURN SUN NIGHT AND MON
AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH
ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THE GFS INDICATES AN
AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO THE S ON MON THEN LIFTS IT NE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WITH
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO JUST
YET BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP MON NIGHT INTO
TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
WED/THU AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW/SK
MARINE...JW/SK
000
FXUS62 KRAH 141143
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PARENT HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A DISTINCT S/W SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY. THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE) TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL NOT SEE
TEMPS FLUCTUATE TOO MUCH. FAVORED THE CHILLIER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR
TODAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WHEN PRECIP IS
FACTORED IN.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SURFACE BASED COOL STABLE LAYER
SHRINKING WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS PARENT SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESENTLY...DO
NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO S/W SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH. WEDGE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS REGION...KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST AND TEMPS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID MARCH. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAKENING OF
SURFACE RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. THESE HIGHS ARE STILL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TOO WARM CONSIDERING RESIDUAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND LACK OF A MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THOUGH WEAK...
THE BEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THE EAST. STRONGER
WINDS AT 850 MILLIBARS FAVOR LIFT DYNAMICS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THUS
SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER AND 50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...THEN
SLIPS SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE PERSISTS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS SOUTHWEST
FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS... TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT FULLY TAPPED AS A MOISTURE SOURCE.
THE SHORT WAVE IS RELATIVELY ROBUST... BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
AT THE MID LEVELS. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY BUT THE ABOVE LIMITING FACTORS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED... PERHAPS TO A TENTH INCH OR LESS.
THE AIR MASS ABOVE 5000 FEET DRYS OUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
LEAVING CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY... WHEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
COULD RETURN RAIN TO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS 51
TO 56 MONDAY...REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT TO 61 TO 66 FOR
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY 38 TO 45 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT... THEN MOSTLY MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM SATURDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WARM MOST AIR ABOVE 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT
THIS TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 10Z SATURDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WITH WARMER AIR OVERSPREADING ABOVE
THE COOL AIR OVERNIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AND SPREAD NORTH. UNCERTAIN
IF VISIBILITIES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN A HALF A MILE TO ONE MILE HIGHLY PROBABLE.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF
RAIN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT
ON WLY FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS
000
FXUS62 KILM 141117
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TRAIN OF SFC LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM...AND INTO THE
SHORT TERM. THE NEXT LOW IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WITH THE AID OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT...VIA LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT AND DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA TO BETWEEN LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WANTS TO BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AM NOT A BELIEVER OF THIS...FOR 1 REASON
THE CORRELATION FOR IT TO OCCUR...TROFFINESS TO LIE ACROSS TX/OK.
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY TO HANG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS STRATIFORM TYPE RAINS/DRIZZLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST GFS WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
ALLOWING STALLED SFC FRONT TO LIFT N. THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED
SOLUTION AS BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE WEDGE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. TYPICALLY THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SFC RIDGE EARLY...WITH
THE NAM USUALLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS. THIS EVENT APPEARS
TO BE NO DIFFERENT THUS LATEST FORECAST IS NAM BASED.
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUN ENHANCING
ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT. MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED POPS IN
THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR SUN. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIP SUN NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES SOME
NVA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY S.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD MON MORNING...SETTING OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP. DID NOT GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS SOME OF THE MOS
IS SUGGESTING JUST YET SINCE TIMING THE SHORT WAVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN POPS
DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. DID BUMP UP POPS FROM 30S AND
40S TO 60S AND 70S. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AVG TEMPS CLOSE
TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SFC HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK AND BOTH SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
KEPT EXTENDED PERIOD DRY DESPITE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME PRECIP
FOR THU NIGHT OR FRI. TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FRONT EXIST AT THIS POINT. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO TUE BUT SRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING WED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
POST FRONT TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY.
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE
SURFACE WEDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HARD TO BREAK THUS IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY DZ WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS
WELL...THEN -RA CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF REPRIEVE ACROSS THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY
TODAY. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW TO APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RE-TIGHTEN
RESULTING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS TONIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WILL BE PRODUCED FROM THE LOCAL WINDS...AND THEY SHOULD REACH
4 TO POSSIBLY 5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT...ALL DEPENDING ON THE LOCALLY PRODUCED
CONDITIONS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE TIME
BEING...DUE TO ITS ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED S OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS TUE WILL END
BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT.
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS
TO 6 FT...BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN SCEC BEING REQUIRED FOR A FEW
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SE AND FINALLY S IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER
SHORT TERM...LEBO
LONG TERM...LEBO
AVIATION...SRP
000
FXUS62 KILM 140922
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...TRAIN OF SFC LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM...AND INTO THE
SHORT TERM. THE NEXT LOW IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO APPROACH FROM THE
SW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WITH THE AID OF MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT...VIA LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT AND DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HAVE POPS INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA TO BETWEEN LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE GFS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WANTS TO BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AM NOT A BELIEVER OF THIS...FOR 1 REASON
THE CORRELATION FOR IT TO OCCUR...TROFFINESS TO LIE ACROSS TX/OK.
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE SFC BOUNDARY TO HANG SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL
AS STRATIFORM TYPE RAINS/DRIZZLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST GFS WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
ALLOWING STALLED SFC FRONT TO LIFT N. THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED
SOLUTION AS BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE WEDGE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. TYPICALLY THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SFC RIDGE EARLY...WITH
THE NAM USUALLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS. THIS EVENT APPEARS
TO BE NO DIFFERENT THUS LATEST FORECAST IS NAM BASED.
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUN ENHANCING
ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT. MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED POPS IN
THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR SUN. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIP SUN NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES SOME
NVA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY S.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD MON MORNING...SETTING OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP. DID NOT GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS SOME OF THE MOS
IS SUGGESTING JUST YET SINCE TIMING THE SHORT WAVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN POPS
DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. DID BUMP UP POPS FROM 30S AND
40S TO 60S AND 70S. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AVG TEMPS CLOSE
TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SFC HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK AND BOTH SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
KEPT EXTENDED PERIOD DRY DESPITE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME PRECIP
FOR THU NIGHT OR FRI. TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FRONT EXIST AT THIS POINT. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO TUE BUT SRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING WED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
POST FRONT TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE 24 HRS FOLLOWING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. PCPN
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LATEST VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...SATURDAY MAY
ONLY REACH THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS B4 THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SFC IMPULSE FROM THE WSW. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN/FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED CEILINGS TO FOLLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF REPREIVE ACROSS THE WATERS THRU MIDDAY
TODAY. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE NEXT SFC LOW TO APPROACH FROM THE SW
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RE-TIGHTEN
RESULTING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS TONIGHT. SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WILL BE PRODUCED FROM THE LOCAL WINDS...AND THEY SHOULD REACH
4 TO POSSIBLY 5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT...ALL DEPENDING ON THE LOCALLY PRODUCED
CONDITIONS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE TIME
BEING...DUE TO ITS ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED S OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS TUE WILL END
BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT.
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS
TO 6 FT...BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN SCEC BEING REQUIRED FOR A FEW
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SE AND FINALLY S IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER
SHORT TERM...LEBO
LONG TERM...LEBO
AVIATION...HOEHLER
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140837
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURRING OVR EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORN. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE ARKLATEX REGION SPREADING PCPN ACRS THE LWR MSVLY
AND TNVLY THIS MORN AND THIS WILL PUSH ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE MAIN SWATH OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AIMED NORTH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY BUT
HARD TO RULE OUT PCPN COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW WITH ANY
WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN.
HIGHEST POPS (AND QPF) WILL BE FCST ACRS NORTHERN AREAS BUT KEPT
IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. DAYSHIFT CAN ADJUST
DOWN IF NEEDED DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORN.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED SO DONT EXPECT MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE RISE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY U40S/NR 50 BUT THIS MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER AND COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TNGT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE WET ACRS
EASTERN NC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE
STATES AND SHUD HELP DIRECT MAIN PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. CAT POPS WILL BE FCST OVR INLAND AND NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. WENT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY EASILY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE WET MODEL
TRENDS CONT TODAY. SHUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. PHASING OF
STREAMS OVR MSVLY ON MONDAY SUGGS ANTHR ROUND OF STEADY PCPN PSBL
AS THE PHASED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. GFS STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE
ASSOCD PCPN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF DEPICTING A WET
DAY OVR EASTERN NC. HAVE BLENDED THE SOLNS FOR NOW WITH HIGH CHC
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANY LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
COAST AS THE MID LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TUE
MORN.
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW LVL WEDGE WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU MONDAY. HARD TO SEE HOW THE WARM
MAV MOS WOULD VERIFY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PCPN
SO SIDED WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AFTR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES TRAVERSE THE AREA.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCD WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU
THE AREA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGS PCPN CHCS
WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WEDGE REMAINS INTACT WITH STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT PERIODS OF -DZ AND FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT OFFSHORE AND MOVES NE ALONG IT.
IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUN INTO MON THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY LATE MON NIGHT/TUE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT SOUTH AND 5 TO 7 FT NORTH. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE TODAY FOR SEAS THEN NO FLAGS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFFSHORE WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING NE ALONG IT
THROUGH MON. GFS SHOWS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS IT OFFSHORE. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING JUST INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SW
WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LIGHT
N WINDS OVER FAR NORTHERN WATERS. LIGHT TO MDT N/NE WINDS RETURN SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THE GFS
INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO THE S ON MON THEN LIFTS
IT NE MON NIGHT AND TUE...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
WITH STRENGTHENING NE FLOW. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THIS SCENARIO
JUST YET BUT WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP MON NIGHT
INTO TUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
WED/THU AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW
000
FXUS62 KILM 140826
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND FOLLOWS: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA- GEORGIA BORDER OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OFF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE FRONT
AND IS NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
CLOUDS...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE LIFT HAS BEEN PRESENT THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 1000-5000 FT LAYER. ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ON THE 925 AND 850 MB LEVELS
THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW TO LIFT THE MOIST
AIR AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ONE FACTOR THAT DOES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WHICH INCREASES GREATLY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE 700 AND
500 MB LAYERS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT A
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD DEVELOP WHERE ICE CRYSTALS FROM THESE
WELL-BELOW-FREEZING SATURATED LAYERS FALL INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IS WHY OUR FORECAST POPS INCREASE
ABOVE 50% THERE LATE.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS MODELS ARE DOING AN PARTICULARLY
GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM APPEARS MARGINALLY BETTER
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ITS
THERMAL STRUCTURE APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF
PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ...SO WE HAVE GONE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LATEST GFS WEAKENS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N
ALLOWING STALLED SFC FRONT TO LIFT N. THIS IS NOT THE FAVORED
SOLUTION AS BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND CANADIAN KEEP THE WEDGE FIRMLY
IN PLACE. TYPICALLY THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE SFC RIDGE EARLY...WITH
THE NAM USUALLY HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS. THIS EVENT APPEARS
TO BE NO DIFFERENT THUS LATEST FORECAST IS NAM BASED.
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUN ENHANCING
ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT. MADE LIMITED CHANGES TO INHERITED POPS IN
THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR SUN. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
PRECIP SUN NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANIES SOME
NVA. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY S.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD MON MORNING...SETTING OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP. DID NOT GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS SOME OF THE MOS
IS SUGGESTING JUST YET SINCE TIMING THE SHORT WAVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE IS STILL DIFFICULT. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RISE IN POPS
DURING THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. DID BUMP UP POPS FROM 30S AND
40S TO 60S AND 70S. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WITH
COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD HIGHS WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. SMALL DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS WILL RESULT IN AVG TEMPS CLOSE
TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SFC HIGH PUSHING OFFSHORE WED AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK AND BOTH SHOW FRONT WEAKENING AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINAS.
KEPT EXTENDED PERIOD DRY DESPITE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME PRECIP
FOR THU NIGHT OR FRI. TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FRONT EXIST AT THIS POINT. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO TUE BUT SRLY FLOW
DEVELOPING WED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH AT LEAST THU.
POST FRONT TEMPS WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE 24 HRS FOLLOWING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. PCPN
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LATEST VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...SATURDAY MAY
ONLY REACH THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS B4 THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SFC IMPULSE FROM THE WSW. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN/FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED CEILINGS TO FOLLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS A FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS TO THE NE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS SE OF HORRY COUNTY HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...THUS THE SCA FOR AMZ254 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ALSO BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SEAS ARE
STILL UP AROUND 6 FT AND WILL BE SLOW TO DROP. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT BY BEFORE DAYBREAK...WILL
ALLOW ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF ARE TO RIDE UNTIL 8 AM EXPIRATION.
MID SHIFT CAN REVIEW THIS WITH THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND FRONT STALLED S OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT REMAINS DIFFUSE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS UNDER 3 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT WITH FLOW
INCREASING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NRLY. LIMITED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS MEANS INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL BE DUE TO TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT ONLY. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IMPACT ON SEAS WILL BE
MARGINAL...WITH SEAS STAYING UNDER 5 FT MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS TUE WILL END
BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT.
DURATION OF 15 TO 20 KT SPEEDS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS
TO 6 FT...BUT COULD STILL RESULT IN SCEC BEING REQUIRED FOR A FEW
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO E-SE AND FINALLY S IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER
NEAR TERM...KREITNER
SHORT TERM...LEBO
LONG TERM...LEBO
AVIATION...HOEHLER
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140806
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH
TODAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN
OCCURRING OVR EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORN. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THRU THE ARKLATEX REGION SPREADING PCPN ACRS THE LWR MSVLY
AND TNVLY THIS MORN AND THIS WILL PUSH ACRS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE MAIN SWATH OF
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS AIMED NORTH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY BUT
HARD TO RULE OUT PCPN COMPLETELY GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW WITH ANY
WEAK LIFTING MECHANISM LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME RAIN.
HIGHEST POPS (AND QPF) WILL BE FCST ACRS NORTHERN AREAS BUT KEPT
IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTN. DAYSHIFT CAN ADJUST
DOWN IF NEEDED DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORN.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED SO DONT EXPECT MUCH OF A
TEMPERATURE RISE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY U40S/NR 50 BUT THIS MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER AND COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT TNGT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE WET ACRS
EASTERN NC. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE
STATES AND SHUD HELP DIRECT MAIN PCPN SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. CAT POPS WILL BE FCST OVR INLAND AND NORTHERN
AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. WENT LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY EASILY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IF THE WET MODEL
TRENDS CONT TODAY. SHUD SEE A BREAK IN THE STEADIER PCPN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS INITIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. PHASING OF
STREAMS OVR MSVLY ON MONDAY SUGGS ANTHR ROUND OF STEADY PCPN PSBL
AS THE PHASED SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. GFS STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE
ASSOCD PCPN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF DEPICTING A WET
DAY OVR EASTERN NC. HAVE BLENDED THE SOLNS FOR NOW WITH HIGH CHC
ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIKELY POPS ALONG SE COAST. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANY LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
COAST AS THE MID LVL TROF MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY TUE
MORN.
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW LVL WEDGE WILL BRING A SLOW TEMPERATURE
MODERATION ACRS THE FCST AREA THRU MONDAY. HARD TO SEE HOW THE WARM
MAV MOS WOULD VERIFY ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PCPN
SO SIDED WITH COOLER MET GUIDANCE. MOS GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AFTR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY CONDS WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRES TRAVERSE THE AREA.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCD WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THRU
THE AREA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGS PCPN CHCS
WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS62 KRAH 140726
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PARENT HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A DISTINCT S/W SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY. THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE) TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL NOT SEE
TEMPS FLUCTUATE TOO MUCH. FAVORED THE CHILLIER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR
TODAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WHEN PRECIP IS
FACTORED IN.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SURFACE BASED COOL STABLE LAYER
SHRINKING WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS PARENT SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESENTLY...DO
NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO S/W SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH. WEDGE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS REGION...KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST AND TEMPS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID MARCH. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAKENING OF
SURFACE RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. THESE HIGHS ARE STILL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TOO WARM CONSIDERING RESIDUAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND LACK OF A MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM...
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND EAST WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THOUGH WEAK...
THE BEST SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THE EAST. STRONGER
WINDS AT 850 MILLIBARS FAVOR LIFT DYNAMICS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THUS
SMALL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER AND 50 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY...THEN
SLIPS SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE PERSISTS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH FLOW IS SOUTHWEST
FOR A TIME AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS... TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT FULLY TAPPED AS A MOISTURE SOURCE.
THE SHORT WAVE IS RELATIVELY ROBUST... BUT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE
AT THE MID LEVELS. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY BUT THE ABOVE LIMITING FACTORS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED... PERHAPS TO A TENTH INCH OR LESS.
THE AIR MASS ABOVE 5000 FEET DRYS OUT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE
LEAVING CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY... WHEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
COULD RETURN RAIN TO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND... WITH HIGHS 51
TO 56 MONDAY...REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING BACK BEHIND THE FRONT TO 61 TO 66 FOR
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY 38 TO 45 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT... THEN MOSTLY MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 AM SATURDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WARM MOST AIR ABOVE 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT
THIS TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 10Z SATURDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 140708
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PARENT HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A DISTINCT S/W SEEN
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING NE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE COOL STABLE SURFACE AIR
MASS LATER TODAY. THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN (LIGHT TO
MODERATE) TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL NOT SEE
TEMPS FLUCTUATE TOO MUCH. FAVORED THE CHILLIER GFS MOS TEMPS FOR
TODAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WHEN PRECIP IS
FACTORED IN.
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SURFACE BASED COOL STABLE LAYER
SHRINKING WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AS PARENT SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST. INCREASINGLY WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRESENTLY...DO
NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO S/W SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH. WEDGE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS REGION...KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST AND TEMPS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR MID MARCH. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAKENING OF
SURFACE RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE 6 TO 8 DEGREES FROM HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY. THESE HIGHS ARE STILL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TOO WARM CONSIDERING RESIDUAL AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND LACK OF A MECHANISM TO SCOUR OUT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR
MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY
INITIALLY HINDER OVERALL CLEARING AND WARMING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SE TOWARD THE AREA WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH NWP MODELS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. -SMITH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 AM SATURDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WARM MOST AIR ABOVE 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT
THIS TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 10Z SATURDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WSS
000
FXUS62 KRAH 140541
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM FRIDAY...
COLD STABLE DOME OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST... WHILE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT AROUND 900 MB AND ABOVE TRANSPORTS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER... 850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING IS TAKING ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TO BECOME PATCHY AND LEAVE US WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
DRIZZLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE
WINDS ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED... WHICH WILL
ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON
THE 290 K SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AS IS... WITH LIKELY POPS
THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL NEAR SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR STEADY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING... BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN HEAVIER
PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z... WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB (IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH). THUS...
EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
AMPLIFY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS TRANSFERRED
ACROSS THE ENTRENCHED CAD STABLE LAYER TO THE COASTAL FRONT...WHERE
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN A 925MB WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE...STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
(50KTS OVER SC)...AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST AND NORTH...BUT
OMEGA FIELDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT ALL
LOCATION SHOULD SEE A GOOD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DURING THE
DAY WONT BUDGE FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOLID RAIN ON TODAY AND
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE SURFACE COLD POOL. THE
ONLY LITTLE HELP FOR WARMING WOULD BE FROM WARM RAIN INTO THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AROUND FOR IN THE NW TO 49 SE.
THE 12Z GFS PARKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE OVER UPSTATE SC
TO NEAR CLT ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN BRINGS THE WARM/COASTAL FRONT
INLAND TO NEAR FAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CAD
AIRMASS...AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW (1017MB)...THIS SEEMS
SUSPECT...SO FULLY EXPECT THE CWA TO BE IN THE STABLE AIRMASS.
ISENTROPIC FIELDS FROM 290K-300K WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED NOISY UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
PATTERN.. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH EVERYTHING FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER FOR ANOTHER DAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. -SMITH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY
INITIALLY HINDER OVERALL CLEARING AND WARMING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SE TOWARD THE AREA WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH NWP MODELS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. -SMITH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 132 AM SATURDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WARM MOST AIR ABOVE 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THE
COOL STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF RAIN. AT
THIS TIME...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW AFTER 10Z SATURDAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
BECOME SPOTTY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION ALOFT ON WLY FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WSS
000
FXUS62 KILM 140540
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND FOLLOWS: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA- GEORGIA BORDER OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OFF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE FRONT
AND IS NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
CLOUDS...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE LIFT HAS BEEN PRESENT THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 1000-5000 FT LAYER. ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ON THE 925 AND 850 MB LEVELS
THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW TO LIFT THE MOIST
AIR AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ONE FACTOR THAT DOES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WHICH INCREASES GREATLY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE 700 AND
500 MB LAYERS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT A
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD DEVELOP WHERE ICE CRYSTALS FROM THESE
WELL-BELOW-FREEZING SATURATED LAYERS FALL INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IS WHY OUR FORECAST POPS INCREASE
ABOVE 50% THERE LATE.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS MODELS ARE DOING AN PARTICULARLY
GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM APPEARS MARGINALLY BETTER
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ITS
THERMAL STRUCTURE APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF
PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ...SO WE HAVE GONE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WARM SW FLOW OVER THE TOP PRODUCING A GOOD SOLID DECK OF
CLOUDS. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN AT LOW
LEVELS WITH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT RH UP THROUGH 3-4K FT. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW DRY POCKET UP THROUGH AROUND 1500 FT
THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST WITH TIME AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE BOUNDARY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND COASTAL
FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND BY SAT NIGHT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE LIFT WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEREFORE SHOWING BEST CHC OF PCP IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
ESPECIALLY LATE SAT INTO SUN AS IT PUSHES COASTAL FRONT INLAND AND
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA. KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW AND WARMING
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES
INLAND...BUT STILL HOLDING ON TO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST
GFS RUN CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT GOING TO BITE
ON LIKELY POPS JUST YET...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE AND
KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A
COASTAL TROF ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT. THU-FRI WILL SEE AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
END RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
WED-THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE 24 HRS FOLLOWING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE WORST OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS...WITH IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. PCPN
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. GIVEN LATEST VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...SATURDAY MAY
ONLY REACH THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS B4 THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SFC IMPULSE FROM THE WSW. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE NE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN/FOG BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH REDUCED CEILINGS TO FOLLOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS A FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS TO THE NE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS SE OF HORRY COUNTY HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...THUS THE SCA FOR AMZ254 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ALSO BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SEAS ARE
STILL UP AROUND 6 FT AND WILL BE SLOW TO DROP. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT BY BEFORE DAYBREAK...WILL
ALLOW ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF ARE TO RIDE UNTIL 8 AM EXPIRATION.
MID SHIFT CAN REVIEW THIS WITH THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH DECREASING
NE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST WATERS. NE
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SAT BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO BECOME ON SHORE AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND BY LATE
SAT INTO SUN AND MAY SEE AN INCREASE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM 3-5
FEET DOWN TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN N-NE FLOW EXPECTED MON-TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF GRADIENT OR CAA TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SOLID 15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT
BUT COULD TOUCH 6 FT OUT AT FRYING PAN BUOY.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS NOW SHOWS A COASTAL
TROF MOVING ONSHORE...BUT WE KNOW THE TYPICAL BIAS OF MOVING THESE
FEATURES TOO QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SE WIND
DIRECTION...BUT A SLOWER OR SHARPER COASTAL TROF COULD MEAN
STRONGER...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KREITNER
NEAR TERM...KREITNER
SHORT TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS
LONG TERM...STEVE
AVIATION...HOEHLER
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140212
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM..LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. RDR CONTS TO SHOW
AREA OF RAIN STAYING ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP ALONG S CST. REDUCED POPS S CST AND INCREASED TO CAT NRN CSTL
PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES GIVEN NEAR
SATURATION OF LOW LVLS AND LOWERING OF ST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT
THINKING HERE IS THAT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIGHT/SPOTTY IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW ZONES. THEN LATE
IN THE DAY THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. WILL FORECAST A
GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHEST NW (CATEGORICAL) AND LOWEST SE
(BARELY LIKELY) BUT WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THE NAM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOUGH AS SURFACE FRONT COULD MAKE IT ONTO THE COAST
LATE. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS (LOWER
50S) COAST AND CHILLY 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL (NW) TO LIKELY POPS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING TEMPERATURES IF THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF (NAM KEEP FRONT
OFFSHORE).
ON SUNDAY ALL THE MODELS INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO
WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL LOCATION WE COULD
SEE SOME 60S HIGHS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WAVE DEPARTS. THE NAM/GFS END THE RAIN AROUND 00Z IN THE
EVENING BUT THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SO WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS TO BE REINFORCED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. ON MONDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON FORECAST CHANCES WITH THE NAM
DRY...THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN AND THE ECMWF WETTEST
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER OCCURRING. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST AND 0.50-0.75 OF AN
INCH ELSEWHERE/
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING AND DRYING BY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACKS THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SHOWERS BUT THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE DRY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING OVER NC SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH OVERCAST SKIES.
CIGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR...AND EXPECT TO LOWER TO
LIFR AFT MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED JUST S OF RTES WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO LIFT INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...WITH FOG MORE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN LIKE
ISO/PGV. THE RAIN WILL SLIDE FURTHER S OVER EWN/OAJ SAT.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATELY AOB IFR SAT THROUGH EARLY MON
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES JUST OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WILL MOVE E
OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF NEARER THE CENTER...BUT REMAIN
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES E
SAT...WILL SEE THE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH WINDS
BECOMING 15 KT OR LESS BY SAT AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH PERFORMING FAIRLY
WELL OVER MOST WATERS...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE ACROSS SRN MOST
PORTION. GENERALLY ACCEPTED WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWAN...AND BRINGS SEAS TO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA S OF OCRACOKE INLET SAT MORNING AND N SAT EVENING.
FORECAST GETS TRICKY SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND MODELS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE FRONT. 12Z GFS LIFT THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS IT NEAR THE
SRN WATERS. FOLLOWED THE 09Z SREF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT WHICH WAS
A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT THEN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN. NE FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS SUN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE N. MAY SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE MON INTO TUE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BETWEEN A WAVE OF LOW PRES TO THE S AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE N.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK/SJ
MARINE...SK/SJ
000
FXUS62 KRAH 140157
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM FRIDAY...
COLD STABLE DOME OF AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST... WHILE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT AROUND 900 MB AND ABOVE TRANSPORTS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER... 850 MB FLOW THIS EVENING IS TAKING ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TO BECOME PATCHY AND LEAVE US WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
DRIZZLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE
WINDS ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED... WHICH WILL
ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED WELL IN THE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON
THE 290 K SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AS IS... WITH LIKELY POPS
THIS EVENING... INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL NEAR SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR STEADY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING... BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR TWO WHEN HEAVIER
PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z... WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB (IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH). THUS...
EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO RANGE FROM MID 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
AMPLIFY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS TRANSFERRED
ACROSS THE ENTRENCHED CAD STABLE LAYER TO THE COASTAL FRONT...WHERE
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN A 925MB WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE...STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
(50KTS OVER SC)...AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST AND NORTH...BUT
OMEGA FIELDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT ALL
LOCATION SHOULD SEE A GOOD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DURING THE
DAY WONT BUDGE FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOLID RAIN ON TODAY AND
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE SURFACE COLD POOL. THE
ONLY LITTLE HELP FOR WARMING WOULD BE FROM WARM RAIN INTO THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AROUND FOR IN THE NW TO 49 SE.
THE 12Z GFS PARKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE OVER UPSTATE SC
TO NEAR CLT ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN BRINGS THE WARM/COASTAL FRONT
INLAND TO NEAR FAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CAD
AIRMASS...AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW (1017MB)...THIS SEEMS
SUSPECT...SO FULLY EXPECT THE CWA TO BE IN THE STABLE AIRMASS.
ISENTROPIC FIELDS FROM 290K-300K WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED NOISY UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
PATTERN.. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH EVERYTHING FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER FOR ANOTHER DAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. -SMITH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY
INITIALLY HINDER OVERALL CLEARING AND WARMING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SE TOWARD THE AREA WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH NWP MODELS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. -SMITH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. COLD AIR DAMMING
WEDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO LIFT IN THE FORM OF
OVERRUNNING ASSOC/W THE WEDGE...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FURTHER
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FINALLY IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH VFR
CEILINGS RETURNING MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. -VINCENT/MLM
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...VINCENT
000
FXUS62 KILM 140133
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
933 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES AND FOLLOWS: A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA- GEORGIA BORDER OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OFF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE FRONT
AND IS NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
CLOUDS...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS
WEST OF I-95 WHERE THE LIFT HAS BEEN PRESENT THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 1000-5000 FT LAYER. ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ON THE 925 AND 850 MB LEVELS
THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW TO LIFT THE MOIST
AIR AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ONE FACTOR THAT DOES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WHICH INCREASES GREATLY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE 700 AND
500 MB LAYERS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT A
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD DEVELOP WHERE ICE CRYSTALS FROM THESE
WELL-BELOW-FREEZING SATURATED LAYERS FALL INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IS WHY OUR FORECAST POPS INCREASE
ABOVE 50% THERE LATE.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS MODELS ARE DOING AN PARTICULARLY
GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM APPEARS MARGINALLY BETTER
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ITS
THERMAL STRUCTURE APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF
PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ...SO WE HAVE GONE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WARM SW FLOW OVER THE TOP PRODUCING A GOOD SOLID DECK OF
CLOUDS. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN AT LOW
LEVELS WITH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT RH UP THROUGH 3-4K FT. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW DRY POCKET UP THROUGH AROUND 1500 FT
THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST WITH TIME AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE BOUNDARY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND COASTAL
FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND BY SAT NIGHT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE LIFT WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEREFORE SHOWING BEST CHC OF PCP IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
ESPECIALLY LATE SAT INTO SUN AS IT PUSHES COASTAL FRONT INLAND AND
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA. KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW AND WARMING
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES
INLAND...BUT STILL HOLDING ON TO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST
GFS RUN CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT GOING TO BITE
ON LIKELY POPS JUST YET...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE AND
KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A
COASTAL TROF ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT. THU-FRI WILL SEE AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
END RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
WED-THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH NEARLY UNIFORM IFR CONDITIONS.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PERHAPS LOWERING TO LIFR MOST SITES BY 05Z. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS
LBT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
RETREATS. CEILINGS HOWEVER WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LIFT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SATURDAY THAT COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS A FRONTAL
WAVE EXITS TO THE NE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE WATERS SE OF HORRY COUNTY HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...THUS THE SCA FOR AMZ254 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ALSO BELOW SCA CRITERIA...SEAS ARE
STILL UP AROUND 6 FT AND WILL BE SLOW TO DROP. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT BY BEFORE DAYBREAK...WILL
ALLOW ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF ARE TO RIDE UNTIL 8 AM EXPIRATION.
MID SHIFT CAN REVIEW THIS WITH THE 3 AM ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH DECREASING
NE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST WATERS. NE
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SAT BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO BECOME ON SHORE AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND BY LATE
SAT INTO SUN AND MAY SEE AN INCREASE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM 3-5
FEET DOWN TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN N-NE FLOW EXPECTED MON-TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF GRADIENT OR CAA TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SOLID 15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT
BUT COULD TOUCH 6 FT OUT AT FRYING PAN BUOY.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS NOW SHOWS A COASTAL
TROF MOVING ONSHORE...BUT WE KNOW THE TYPICAL BIAS OF MOVING THESE
FEATURES TOO QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SE WIND
DIRECTION...BUT A SLOWER OR SHARPER COASTAL TROF COULD MEAN
STRONGER...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...ALL
000
FXUS62 KMHX 140046
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
845 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM..LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. RDR CONTS TO SHOW
AREA OF RAIN STAYING ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP ALONG S CST. REDUCED POPS S CST AND INCREASED TO CAT NRN CSTL
PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
SKIES...ALSO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES GIVEN NEAR
SATURATION OF LOW LVLS AND LOWERING OF ST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT
THINKING HERE IS THAT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIGHT/SPOTTY IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW ZONES. THEN LATE
IN THE DAY THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. WILL FORECAST A
GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHEST NW (CATEGORICAL) AND LOWEST SE
(BARELY LIKELY) BUT WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THE NAM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOUGH AS SURFACE FRONT COULD MAKE IT ONTO THE COAST
LATE. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS (LOWER
50S) COAST AND CHILLY 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL (NW) TO LIKELY POPS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING TEMPERATURES IF THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF (NAM KEEP FRONT
OFFSHORE).
ON SUNDAY ALL THE MODELS INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO
WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL LOCATION WE COULD
SEE SOME 60S HIGHS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WAVE DEPARTS. THE NAM/GFS END THE RAIN AROUND 00Z IN THE
EVENING BUT THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SO WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS TO BE REINFORCED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. ON MONDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON FORECAST CHANCES WITH THE NAM
DRY...THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN AND THE ECMWF WETTEST
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER OCCURRING. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST AND 0.50-0.75 OF AN
INCH ELSEWHERE/
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING AND DRYING BY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACKS THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SHOWERS BUT THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE DRY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING OVER NC SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO LOWER TO LIFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST
S OF RTES WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE
REGION.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATELY AOB IFR SAT THROUGH EARLY MON
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 PM FRI...MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS AND HAVE LET THE SCA EXPIRE IN THE SOUNDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE WATERS INVOF
THE GULF STREAM. LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH WINDS BECOMING 15 KT OR LESS BY SAT AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH
PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL OVER MOST WATERS...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE
ACROSS SRN MOST PORTION. GENERALLY ACCEPTED WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWAN...AND BRINGS
SEAS TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA S OF OCRACOKE INLET SAT MORNING AND N
SAT EVENING.
FORECAST GETS TRICKY SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND MODELS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE FRONT. 12Z GFS LIFT THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS IT NEAR THE
SRN WATERS. FOLLOWED THE 09Z SREF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT WHICH WAS
A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT THEN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN. NE FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS SUN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE N. MAY SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE MON INTO TUE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BETWEEN A WAVE OF LOW PRES TO THE S AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE N.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
000
FXUS62 KRAH 132346
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
NEAR STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SURFACE...DEPICTED NICELY ON THE NAM. EXPECT A LULL IN THE RAIN
EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SATURATED COOL AIRMASS
WILL REQUIRE LITTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH LOW QPF.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ENHANCING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. WILL INCREASE LATE NIGHT POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO CATEGORICAL AND SHOW INCREASING QPF AS
SUNRISE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE INCLINATION TO FALL
TONIGHT IN THE SATURATED AIRMASS...34 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHEAST. -MLM
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
AMPLIFY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS TRANSFERRED
ACROSS THE ENTRENCHED CAD STABLE LAYER TO THE COASTAL FRONT...WHERE
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN A 925MB WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE...STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE
(50KTS OVER SC)...AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST AND NORTH...BUT
OMEGA FIELDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT ALL
LOCATION SHOULD SEE A GOOD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS DURING THE
DAY WONT BUDGE FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. SOLID RAIN ON TODAY AND
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN THE SURFACE COLD POOL. THE
ONLY LITTLE HELP FOR WARMING WOULD BE FROM WARM RAIN INTO THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS AROUND FOR IN THE NW TO 49 SE.
THE 12Z GFS PARKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE OVER UPSTATE SC
TO NEAR CLT ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN BRINGS THE WARM/COASTAL FRONT
INLAND TO NEAR FAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CAD
AIRMASS...AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW (1017MB)...THIS SEEMS
SUSPECT...SO FULLY EXPECT THE CWA TO BE IN THE STABLE AIRMASS.
ISENTROPIC FIELDS FROM 290K-300K WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED NOISY UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
PATTERN.. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH EVERYTHING FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER FOR ANOTHER DAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. -SMITH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MAY
INITIALLY HINDER OVERALL CLEARING AND WARMING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SE TOWARD THE AREA WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH NWP MODELS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. -SMITH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS RANGING FROM LIFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. COLD AIR DAMMING
WEDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO LIFT IN THE FORM OF
OVERRUNNING ASSOC/W THE WEDGE...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...FURTHER
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FINALLY IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH VFR
CEILINGS RETURNING MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. -VINCENT/MLM
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...VINCENT
000
FXUS62 KILM 132323
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OFF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE FRONT AND IS NOW
PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE CLOUDS...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-95
WHERE THE LIFT HAS BEEN PRESENT THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 1000-5000 FT LAYER. ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ON THE 925 AND 850 MB LEVELS
THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW TO LIFT THE MOIST
AIR AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ONE FACTOR THAT DOES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WHICH INCREASES GREATLY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE 700 AND
500 MB LAYERS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT A
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD DEVELOP WHERE ICE CRYSTALS FROM THESE
WELL-BELOW-FREEZING SATURATED LAYERS FALL INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IS WHY OUR FORECAST POPS INCREASE
ABOVE 50% THERE LATE.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS MODELS ARE DOING AN PARTICULARLY
GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM APPEARS MARGINALLY BETTER
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ITS
THERMAL STRUCTURE APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF
PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ...SO WE HAVE GONE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WARM SW FLOW OVER THE TOP PRODUCING A GOOD SOLID DECK OF
CLOUDS. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN AT LOW
LEVELS WITH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT RH UP THROUGH 3-4K FT. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW DRY POCKET UP THROUGH AROUND 1500 FT
THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST WITH TIME AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE BOUNDARY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND COASTAL
FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND BY SAT NIGHT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE LIFT WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEREFORE SHOWING BEST CHC OF PCP IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
ESPECIALLY LATE SAT INTO SUN AS IT PUSHES COASTAL FRONT INLAND AND
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA. KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW AND WARMING
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES
INLAND...BUT STILL HOLDING ON TO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST
GFS RUN CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT GOING TO BITE
ON LIKELY POPS JUST YET...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE AND
KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A
COASTAL TROF ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT. THU-FRI WILL SEE AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
END RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
WED-THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH NEARLY UNIFORM IFR CONDITIONS.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...PERHAPS LOWERING TO LIFR MOST SITES BY 05Z. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS
LBT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE
RETREATS. CEILINGS HOWEVER WILL BE RELUCTANT TO LIFT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK IMPULSES ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SATURDAY THAT COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN...BUT AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS UP ALONG THE NC
OUTER BANKS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO ONLY 12-15 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE NC/SC COAST. ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS OUR SHALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS BEING DRIVING
SOUTHWARD AROUND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
SIX-FOOT SEAS ARE NEEDED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND SEAS AT
LEAST THIS HIGH SHOULD DISAPPEAR FROM THE HORRY COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS BY 8 PM...COURTESY OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH DECREASING
NE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST WATERS. NE
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SAT BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO BECOME ON SHORE AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND BY LATE
SAT INTO SUN AND MAY SEE AN INCREASE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM 3-5
FEET DOWN TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN N-NE FLOW EXPECTED MON-TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF GRADIENT OR CAA TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SOLID 15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT
BUT COULD TOUCH 6 FT OUT AT FRYING PAN BUOY.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS NOW SHOWS A COASTAL
TROF MOVING ONSHORE...BUT WE KNOW THE TYPICAL BIAS OF MOVING THESE
FEATURES TOO QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SE WIND
DIRECTION...BUT A SLOWER OR SHARPER COASTAL TROF COULD MEAN
STRONGER...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...43
000
FXUS62 KMHX 132113
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
513 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM...GUIDANCE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH FORECAST
DETAILS. THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BRIEF
DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR AND
THE MODELS IT APPEARS BEST RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH...MAINLY NORTH OF A SNOW HILL TO HATTERAS LINE. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS THERE AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S INLAND AND MIDDLE 40S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT
THINKING HERE IS THAT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIGHT/SPOTTY IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW ZONES. THEN LATE
IN THE DAY THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. WILL FORECAST A
GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHEST NW (CATEGORICAL) AND LOWEST SE
(BARELY LIKELY) BUT WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THE NAM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOUGH AS SURFACE FRONT COULD MAKE IT ONTO THE COAST
LATE. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS (LOWER
50S) COAST AND CHILLY 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL (NW) TO LIKELY POPS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING TEMPERATURES IF THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF (NAM KEEP FRONT
OFFSHORE).
ON SUNDAY ALL THE MODELS INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO
WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL LOCATION WE COULD
SEE SOME 60S HIGHS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WAVE DEPARTS. THE NAM/GFS END THE RAIN AROUND 00Z IN THE
EVENING BUT THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SO WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS TO BE REINFORCED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. ON MONDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON FORECAST CHANCES WITH THE NAM
DRY...THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN AND THE ECMWF WETTEST
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER OCCURRING. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST AND 0.50-0.75 OF AN
INCH ELSEWHERE/
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING AND DRYING BY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACKS THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SHOWERS BUT THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE DRY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING OVER NC SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 500 PM...LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO LOWER TO LIFR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST
S OF RTES WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE
REGION.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINATELY AOB IFR SAT THROUGH EARLY MON
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 PM FRI...MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS AND HAVE LET THE SCA EXPIRE IN THE SOUNDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY JUST S OF THE WATERS INVOF
THE GULF STREAM. LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH WINDS BECOMING 15 KT OR LESS BY SAT AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH
PERFORMING FAIRLY WELL OVER MOST WATERS...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE
ACROSS SRN MOST PORTION. GENERALLY ACCEPTED WAVEWATCH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWAN...AND BRINGS
SEAS TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA S OF OCRACOKE INLET SAT MORNING AND N
SAT EVENING.
FORECAST GETS TRICKY SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND MODELS NOT IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE FRONT. 12Z GFS LIFT THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS IT NEAR THE
SRN WATERS. FOLLOWED THE 09Z SREF FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT WHICH WAS
A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT SAT NIGHT THEN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN. NE FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS SUN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE N. MAY SEE
SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE MON INTO TUE AS GRADIENTS INCREASE
BETWEEN A WAVE OF LOW PRES TO THE S AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM
THE N.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 131956
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
356 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF OF THE COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING PERIODS OF RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM...GUIDANCE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH FORECAST
DETAILS. THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE
ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BRIEF
DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR AND
THE MODELS IT APPEARS BEST RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH...MAINLY NORTH OF A SNOW HILL TO HATTERAS LINE. WILL
FORECAST LIKELY POPS THERE AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S INLAND AND MIDDLE 40S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS BUT
THINKING HERE IS THAT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE LIGHT/SPOTTY IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NW ZONES. THEN LATE
IN THE DAY THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. WILL FORECAST A
GRADIENT IN POPS WITH HIGHEST NW (CATEGORICAL) AND LOWEST SE
(BARELY LIKELY) BUT WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THE NAM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOUGH AS SURFACE FRONT COULD MAKE IT ONTO THE COAST
LATE. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WITH WARMEST TEMPS (LOWER
50S) COAST AND CHILLY 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL (NW) TO LIKELY POPS. FORECAST LOWS
WILL OCCUR EARLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING TEMPERATURES IF THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND AS INDICATED BY THE GFS/ECMWF (NAM KEEP FRONT
OFFSHORE).
ON SUNDAY ALL THE MODELS INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO
WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL LOCATION WE COULD
SEE SOME 60S HIGHS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WAVE DEPARTS. THE NAM/GFS END THE RAIN AROUND 00Z IN THE
EVENING BUT THE ECMWF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SO WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS TO BE REINFORCED WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. ON MONDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THE AREA BUT DIFFER ON FORECAST CHANCES WITH THE NAM
DRY...THE GFS FORECASTING LIGHT RAIN AND THE ECMWF WETTEST
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE IRONED OUT. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER OCCURRING. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75-1.25" EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST AND 0.50-0.75 OF AN
INCH ELSEWHERE/
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING AND DRYING BY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACKS THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SHOWERS BUT THE ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE DRY WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING OVER NC SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM...LIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS LOW PRES
SLIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SREF
PROBABILITY FORECAST INDICATES GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AFT 21Z CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE SIMILAR. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF -DZ AND FOG.
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1200 PM FRI...MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS WITH CAD WEDGE IN PLACE OVER INLAND NC. MODELS
A BIT UNDERDONE WITH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEVERAL OBS
AROUND THE SOUNDS REPORTING STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING AS
WAVEWATCH/SWAN HAVE PREDICTED. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL LIFT NE ACROSS OR JUST E OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE PASSES.
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN SEAS SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 5 TO 8 FT
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ON SAT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES E OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SAT THEN
LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WILL LIMIT
SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN SEAS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY SAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT N/NW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODERATE NE FLOW MON AND TUE WITH N/NE WINDS 10 TO
20 KT. SEAS AOB 6 FT SUN INTO MON BUT COULD SEE SEAS REACH 6 FT OVER
CENTRAL WATERS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WATERS
WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ150-152- 154-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
000
FXUS62 KILM 131934
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
333 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER OUT THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OFF CAPE FEAR ALONG THE FRONT AND IS NOW
PUSHING NORTHEAST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE CLOUDS...BUT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-95
WHERE THE LIFT HAS BEEN PRESENT THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS IN THE 1000-5000 FT LAYER. ALTHOUGH AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE ON THE 925 AND 850 MB LEVELS
THERE IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH CROSS-ISOTHERMAL FLOW TO LIFT THE MOIST
AIR AND GENERATE PRECIPITATION. ONE FACTOR THAT DOES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT IS THE OVERALL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WHICH INCREASES GREATLY AS MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE 700 AND
500 MB LAYERS. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT A
SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS COULD DEVELOP WHERE ICE CRYSTALS FROM THESE
WELL-BELOW-FREEZING SATURATED LAYERS FALL INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PRODUCES LIGHT RAIN AT THE SURFACE. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND IS WHY OUR FORECAST POPS INCREASE
ABOVE 50% THERE LATE.
ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS MODELS ARE DOING AN PARTICULARLY
GOOD JOB WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE NAM APPEARS MARGINALLY BETTER
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER ITS
THERMAL STRUCTURE APPEARS TOO COLD GIVEN THE PAUCITY OF
PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ...SO WE HAVE GONE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS LOWS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WARM SW FLOW OVER THE TOP PRODUCING A GOOD SOLID DECK OF
CLOUDS. MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LOCKED IN AT LOW
LEVELS WITH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT RH UP THROUGH 3-4K FT. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW DRY POCKET UP THROUGH AROUND 1500 FT
THROUGH SAT AFTN BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST WITH TIME AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE BOUNDARY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND COASTAL
FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND BY SAT NIGHT. THEREFORE LOOKS LIKE LIFT WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEREFORE SHOWING BEST CHC OF PCP IN
THAT TIME PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
ESPECIALLY LATE SAT INTO SUN AS IT PUSHES COASTAL FRONT INLAND AND
MAINTAINS A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS AREA. KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW AND WARMING
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES
INLAND...BUT STILL HOLDING ON TO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE LATEST
GFS RUN CAME IN MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. NOT GOING TO BITE
ON LIKELY POPS JUST YET...BUT HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE AND
KNOCKED MAX TEMPS DOWN BY A CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A
COASTAL TROF ADVERTISED BY THE GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT JUMP
ON THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT. THU-FRI WILL SEE AN UPPER TROF SETTLING
OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
END RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF CLIMO
WED-THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AROUND 2100 FEET AT
FLO/LBT AND AROUND 1500 FEET AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS
ATTM. MORE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE
AND WELL NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE CEILINGS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY FAIRLY DRY. CEILINGS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL LOWERING
TREND AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE TAFS. GFS IS BULLISH ON
LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z...WITH IFR DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. SINCE MODELS ARE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 18Z FEEL THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z. BUT IF
RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...THEN IFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP EARLIER....MOST LIKELY AT MYR/CRE.
AFTER 18Z BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR MYR/CRE AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER LEVELS TO
BECOME SATURATED. SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES OF IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF PREDOMINATE IFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION LOWERS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS UP ALONG THE NC
OUTER BANKS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...FALLING TO ONLY 12-15 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE NC/SC COAST. ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS FRONT IS OUR SHALLOW CHILLY AIRMASS BEING DRIVING
SOUTHWARD AROUND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
SIX-FOOT SEAS ARE NEEDED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND SEAS AT
LEAST THIS HIGH SHOULD DISAPPEAR FROM THE HORRY COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS BY 8 PM...COURTESY OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT WITH DECREASING
NE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS MOST WATERS. NE
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SAT BUT WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO BECOME ON SHORE AS COASTAL FRONT PUSHES INLAND BY LATE
SAT INTO SUN AND MAY SEE AN INCREASE AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS SHOULD DROP FROM 3-5
FEET DOWN TO 2-4 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...BENIGN N-NE FLOW EXPECTED MON-TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF GRADIENT OR CAA TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SOLID 15 KT. SEAS 2-4 FT
BUT COULD TOUCH 6 FT OUT AT FRYING PAN BUOY.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST. GFS NOW SHOWS A COASTAL
TROF MOVING ONSHORE...BUT WE KNOW THE TYPICAL BIAS OF MOVING THESE
FEATURES TOO QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SE WIND
DIRECTION...BUT A SLOWER OR SHARPER COASTAL TROF COULD MEAN
STRONGER...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KRAH 131838
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM...
NEAR STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300K SURFACE...DEPICTED NICELY ON THE NAM. EXPECT A LULL IN THE RAIN
EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT SATURATED COOL AIRMASS
WILL REQUIRE LITTLE LIFT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH LOW QPF.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ENHANCING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. WILL INCREASE LATE NIGHT POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO CATEGORICAL AND SHOW INCREASING QPF AS
SUNRISE APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE INCLINATION TO FALL
TONIGHT IN THE SATURATED AIRMASS...34 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
AMPLIFY A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS TRANSFERRED
ACROSS THE ENTRENCHED CAD STABLE LAYER TO THE COASTAL
FRONT...WHERE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN A 925MB WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE...STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE (50KTS OVER SC)...AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL LOOKS TO BE
WEST AND NORTH...BUT OMEGA FIELDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THAT ALL LOCATION SHOULD SEE A GOOD RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WONT BUDGE FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
SOLID RAIN ON TODAY AND CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN
THE SURFACE COLD POOL. THE ONLY LITTLE HELP FOR WARMING WOULD BE
FROM WARM RAIN INTO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. LOOKING FOR HIGHS
AROUND FOR IN THE NW TO 49 SE.
THE 12Z GFS PARKS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE OVER UPSTATE SC
TO NEAR CLT ON SUNDAY...AND EVEN BRINGS THE WARM/COASTAL FRONT
INLAND TO NEAR FAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CAD
AIRMASS...AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW (1017MB)...THIS SEEMS
SUSPECT...SO FULLY EXPECT THE CWA TO BE IN THE STABLE AIRMASS.
ISENTROPIC FIELDS FROM 290K-300K WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BUT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED NOISY UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
PATTERN.. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH EVERYTHING FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER FOR ANOTHER DAY...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY INITIALLY HINDER OVERALL CLEARING AND
WARMING...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NWP MODELS
AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 00Z...AND LIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO COOL AND MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WILL BE INITIALLY MVFR
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LIFR/IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY...OCCASIONALLY IFR IN RAIN.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS RETURNING MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...MLM
000
FXUS62 KRAH 131756
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM...
THIS MORNING...WILL UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY DUE TO STRONGER INITIAL
SURGE OF OVERRUNNING RAIN. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THE QPF AS WELL AS TWEAK THE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A LITTLE AS RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IS STABILIZING IN THE UPPER
30S. - MLM
MOISTURE ON IN THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
LIFTS OVER THE COLDER NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUD BASES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3000 FEET OR BELOW IN OUR SOUTH PARTS AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD
LOCK IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SLIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS THE AIR MASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE MESONAM MODELS HAVE SIMILARLY PLACED 700
MILLIBAR LIFT BULLS EYES LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING... THEY SEEM TO BE BASED ON SUBTLE MINUTE WIND SHIFTS NOT
LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY APPEARS
TO BE WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST... FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A TENTH INCH BUT GENERALLY MUCH LESS. OTHERWISE
LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED AND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN GENERAL SHOULD
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE AN ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTH INCH.
OVERRUNNING SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO ADD VERY LITTLE TO THE RAIN TOTAL.
AS A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW AT 5000 FEET BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT... OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES... TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAWN... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO TRACE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL THREE TO FIVE DEGREES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35 TO 41.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
A CHILLY RAINY PERIOD...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY (OFF
THE SC COAST) SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z/ECMWF
BEFORE OUR DEADLINE... BUT IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 400 AM.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
JIVES WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE 00Z/13 GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE MAIN WAVE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z/NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/GEM. REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CATEGORICAL POP SAT-SAT NIGHT... WITH
QPF IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER... THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWERS POP BACK TO 50/50. THE NEW ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEM
AND NAM.... WITH THE STEADY RAIN LINGERING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED... AND LONGER THAN THE GFS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS.. A
COMMON THEME IS TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS OUR REGION WELL INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG... WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WE WILL EMPHASIZE DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND RAISE POP BACK TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 18Z. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD STABLE DOME TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.
AS FOR THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE CAD EVENT... LOWS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING
REGION... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
ONLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT... RANGING INTO THE
45-50 RANGE SE. LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. THE HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S NORTH CENTRAL... BUT REACH 50-55 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE BY 4-7 DEGREES... ESPECIALLY AT GREENSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND FOR CENTRAL NC DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL... AFTER THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH THE RESIDUAL CAD
LIKELY TO FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS NE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN CLEARING
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE SUN FINALLY RETURNS.
THEREFORE... WE WILL REMOVE POP FOR MON-TUE WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST
GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY... AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THE GULF IS FORECAST TO BE
SHUT OFF FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN INTO THE MID 60S NW-N TO
MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD FALL
BACK A GOOD 10 DEGREES... MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT IFR
CEILINGS AROUND 00Z...AND LIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO COOL AND MOISTEN. VISIBILITIES WILL BE INITIALLY MVFR
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LIFR/IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY...OCCASIONALLY IFR IN RAIN.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS RETURNING MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...MLM
000
FXUS62 KILM 131728
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
128 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM FRIDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA OUT INTO THE DISTANT OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 2500 FT...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALTITUDES ABOVE
5000 FT. THIS COLD WEDGE IS HELPING TO LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
PRODUCE THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWS
AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE PEE DEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THERE...BUT TRIMMED BACK
POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ALONG THE COAST WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW AND WEAK TODAY. BENNETTSVILLE AND
LUMBERTON STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN TODAY...BUT EVEN
THERE WE ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
DRY AT IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S)
WILL HELP TO EVAPORATE SOME OF THE RAIN TODAY WHICH WILL REDUCE
ACCUMULATIONS...AND ALSO TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ALONG THE
COAST TEMPERATURES MAY RISE 2-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS:
TOPPING OUT 49-53 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FARTHER INLAND WHERE RAIN
DEVELOPS THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CREATE STEADY
TEMPERATURE CURVES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE
GFS...BUT NOT EVEN THE 12Z RUC IS DOING AN ESPECIALLY GOOD JOB WITH
THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WIDELY
WITH REGARDS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAIN THE SAME...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. OMEGA AND
VORTICITY FIELDS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
MOTION. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN WITH
REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...NOW NINE TO ELEVEN DEGREES
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE RESULT
OF THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING INLAND AS THE MAV HAS ONE THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LBT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY. THE MAV REMAINS WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SCENARIO AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE MISERABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS NOW
SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING FEW DAYS AS THE LATEST
MEX IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 70S FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
GIVE THE AIRMASS AMPLE TIME TO MODIFY. WITH THE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE WARM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS OF THE LATEST MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON: CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY
HOLDING STEADY BUT LOWERING SOME UPSTREAM (I.E. NORTHEAST) OF LBT.
ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST NEAR THE
TERMINALS. MORE CONCENTRATED AREAS AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WELL
OFFSHORE AND WELL NORTH. BENEATH THE CEILINGS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY DRY...EXCEPT AT LBT WHERE EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM RAINFALL
NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINAL HAS CAUSED THE LOW LEVELS TO
BECOME SATURATED RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO MVFR IN BR.
LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY 21Z AT ALL TERMINALS. SINCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST WITH BETTER COVERAGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THINK COASTAL
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 01Z. IFR...IF IT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON....IS MOST LIKELY AT LBT. AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE FLO
TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON IFR MAY DEVELOP THERE...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. COASTAL
TERMINALS SHOULD DROP TO IFR 02-03Z WITH ALL TERMINALS REMAINING IFR
(OR LESS) THROUGH SATURDAY 18Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM FRIDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BETTER THAN 100 MILES FROM CAPE FEAR. COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
ON WEST SIDE OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS SO FAR
BEEN CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD
EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
RAINFALL. NO VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE RATHER
DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY
RAINFALL.
WITH OVER 36 HOURS OF STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW...SEAS ARE FULLY
DEVELOPED GIVEN THE FETCH AND SPEEDS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY HAS REPORTED 8-9 FT SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY (CORMP:ILM2) HAS
REPORTED 5-7 FT SEAS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD FALL BY
ABOUT ONE FOOT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT READINGS...BUT NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS WINDS DROP TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST
ON WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER SCENARIO...WIND SPEEDS DIP TO BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT HAS DISPLAYED THE MOST
CONSISTENCY. SEAS DROP FROM 3-5 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A MODEST NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SWELL TO ACCOMPANY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET
CONTINUING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR/TRA
000
FXUS62 KMHX 131609
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1209 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHILE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. I TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES NW COUNTIES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OTHERWISE LEFT THE
REST OF THE FORECAST INTACT. CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN FULL
BLOOM TODAY. ABOVE THE WEDGE VEERING WIND PROFILE WAS INDICATIVE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. VERY DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING BUT SUBTLE DRYING OVER GA THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A WEAK
IMPULSE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS FEATURE IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING TO SOUTHWEST. INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL WITH THE COAST THE LEAST
BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOY WITH CURRENT LIKELY POP SCENARIO ALL AREAS
SINCE WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES/COAST TO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND IN
THE ALREADY RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTUALLY DECREASES (TEMPORARILY) OVRNGT BUT WILL
CONT HIGH CHC POPS AS SCTD LIGHT PCPN (RAIN/DRIZZLE) MAY LINGER
IN THE MOIST LOW LVL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO INCREASED PCPN
CHCS THRU SAT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVES ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. SFC
HIGH PRES REBUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER
DRIER LOW LVL AIR INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT BUT
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF PCPN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH LOW LVL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. (A QUICK PEAK
AT THE 13/00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONT THRU
MONDAY.)
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
WIDEPREAD PCPN AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PCPN BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF AND CLOUD COVER THINS OUT.
DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER PCPN INTERVALS WILL BE LIMITED OR
ENTIRELY LACKING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. AN AVERAGE OF
1-1.5 INCH QPF TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT IF AN ERROR WERE
TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FORCING MECHANISMS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
FCST PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN LIKELY PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE MON
NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. COOLER THAN NORML TEMPS PROBABLE EARLY THIS
PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE (LOWER THAN NORMAL LOW LVL
THICKNESS) AND LIGHT LOW LVL FLOW. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A
BUT ABV NORML AS A LOW LVL RETURN FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING SETS UP
DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM...LIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. CIGS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS LOW PRES
SLIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SREF
PROBABILITY FORECAST INDICATES GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AFT 21Z CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOS AND
LAMP GUIDANCE SIMILAR. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF -DZ AND FOG.
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1200 PM FRI...MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS WITH CAD WEDGE IN PLACE OVER INLAND NC. MODELS
A BIT UNDERDONE WITH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEVERAL OBS
AROUND THE SOUNDS REPORTING STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUNDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING AS
WAVEWATCH/SWAN HAVE PREDICTED. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WILL LIFT NE ACROSS OR JUST E OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE PASSES.
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN SEAS SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 5 TO 8 FT
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ON SAT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW PUSHES E OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SAT THEN
LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WILL LIMIT
SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN SEAS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY SAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT N/NW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODERATE NE FLOW MON AND TUE WITH N/NE WINDS 10 TO
20 KT. SEAS AOB 6 FT SUN INTO MON BUT COULD SEE SEAS REACH 6 FT OVER
CENTRAL WATERS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WATERS
WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW/SK
MARINE...JW/SK
000
FXUS62 KMHX 131420
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHILE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. I TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES NW COUNTIES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OTHERWISE LEFT THE
REST OF THE FORECAST INTACT. CLASSIC SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN IN FULL
BLOOM TODAY. ABOVE THE WEDGE VEERING WIND PROFILE WAS INDICATIVE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. VERY DIFFICULT
TO PICK OUT INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING BUT SUBTLE DRYING OVER GA THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A WEAK
IMPULSE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS FEATURE IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING TO SOUTHWEST. INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL WITH THE COAST THE LEAST
BUT DID NOT WANT TO TOY WITH CURRENT LIKELY POP SCENARIO ALL AREAS
SINCE WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES/COAST TO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND IN
THE ALREADY RAIN COOLED AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTUALLY DECREASES (TEMPORARILY) OVRNGT BUT WILL
CONT HIGH CHC POPS AS SCTD LIGHT PCPN (RAIN/DRIZZLE) MAY LINGER
IN THE MOIST LOW LVL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO INCREASED PCPN
CHCS THRU SAT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVES ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. SFC
HIGH PRES REBUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER
DRIER LOW LVL AIR INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT BUT
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF PCPN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH LOW LVL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. (A QUICK PEAK
AT THE 13/00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONT THRU
MONDAY.)
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
WIDEPREAD PCPN AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PCPN BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF AND CLOUD COVER THINS OUT.
DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER PCPN INTERVALS WILL BE LIMITED OR
ENTIRELY LACKING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. AN AVERAGE OF
1-1.5 INCH QPF TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT IF AN ERROR WERE
TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FORCING MECHANISMS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
FCST PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN LIKELY PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE MON
NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. COOLER THAN NORML TEMPS PROBABLE EARLY THIS
PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE (LOWER THAN NORMAL LOW LVL
THICKNESS) AND LIGHT LOW LVL FLOW. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A
BUT ABV NORML AS A LOW LVL RETURN FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING SETS UP
DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM...LIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. VFR CONTINUES OVER WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE CIGS ARE
ABOVE 3K FT WHILE EASTERN TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREDOMINANT MVFR
CIGS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS TODAY AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES ALONG STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE TODAY AND LIFTS NE THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
ALL TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK THEN IFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SREF
PROBABILITY FORECAST INDICATES GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS AFT 21Z CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOS AND LAMP
GUIDANCE SIMILAR. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF -DZ AND FOG.
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM FRI...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH CAD WEDGE IN PLACE OVER INLAND NC.
SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 7 FT. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH THEN LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
TIGHTEST THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE WAVE PASSES. SHOULD SEE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE TODAY THEN 15
TO 20 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN SEAS SIMILAR IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH 5 TO 8 FT EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6
FT ON SAT. ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SAT THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WILL
LIMIT SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN SEAS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY SAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT N/NW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODERATE NE FLOW MON AND TUE WITH N/NE WINDS 10 TO
20 KT. SEAS AOB 6 FT SUN INTO MON BUT COULD SEE SEAS REACH 6 FT OVER
CENTRAL WATERS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WATERS
WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW
000
FXUS62 KILM 131400
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM FRIDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA OUT INTO THE DISTANT OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 2500 FT...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALTITUDES ABOVE
5000 FT. THIS COLD WEDGE IS HELPING TO LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
PRODUCE THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWS
AN EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
THAT HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON THE PEE DEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THERE...BUT TRIMMED BACK
POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ALONG THE COAST WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT APPEARS TOO SHALLOW AND WEAK TODAY. BENNETTSVILLE AND
LUMBERTON STAND THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN TODAY...BUT EVEN
THERE WE ARE FORECASTING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
DRY AT IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S)
WILL HELP TO EVAPORATE SOME OF THE RAIN TODAY WHICH WILL REDUCE
ACCUMULATIONS...AND ALSO TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ALONG THE
COAST TEMPERATURES MAY RISE 2-3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS:
TOPPING OUT 49-53 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FARTHER INLAND WHERE RAIN
DEVELOPS THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD CREATE STEADY
TEMPERATURE CURVES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE
GFS...BUT NOT EVEN THE 12Z RUC IS DOING AN ESPECIALLY GOOD JOB WITH
THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WIDELY WITH
REGARDS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAIN THE SAME...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. OMEGA AND
VORTICITY FIELDS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
MOTION. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN WITH
REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...NOW NINE TO ELEVEN DEGREES
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE RESULT
OF THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING INLAND AS THE MAV HAS ONE THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LBT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY. THE MAV REMAINS WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SCENARIO AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS MUCH
MORE SUBDUED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE MISERABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS NOW
SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING FEW DAYS AS THE LATEST
MEX IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 70S FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
GIVE THE AIRMASS AMPLE TIME TO MODIFY. WITH THE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE WARM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS OF THE LATEST MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AROUND 2100 FEET AT FLO/LBT
AND AROUND 1500 FEET AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ONLY ISOLATED AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS ATTM. MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND WELL
NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE CEILINGS THE LOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAIRLY DRY. CEILINGS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND AND WILL
REFLECT THIS IN THE TAFS. GFS IS BULLISH ON LOWERING CEILINGS TO
IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z...WITH IFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z FEEL THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION
AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z. BUT IF RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...THEN IFR CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP EARLIER....MOST LIKELY AT MYR/CRE.
AFTER 18Z BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR MYR/CRE AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER LEVELS TO
BECOME SATURATED. SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES OF IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF PREDOMINATE IFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION LOWERS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM FRIDAY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BETTER THAN 100 MILES FROM CAPE FEAR. COLD NORTHEAST WINDS
ON WEST SIDE OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS SO FAR
BEEN CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD
EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
RAINFALL. NO VISIBILITY PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE RATHER
DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF ANY
RAINFALL.
WITH OVER 36 HOURS OF STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW...SEAS ARE FULLY
DEVELOPED GIVEN THE FETCH AND SPEEDS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY HAS REPORTED 8-9 FT SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...
AND THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY (CORMP:ILM2) HAS
REPORTED 5-7 FT SEAS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD FALL BY
ABOUT ONE FOOT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT READINGS...BUT NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS WINDS DROP TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST
ON WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER SCENARIO...WIND SPEEDS DIP TO BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT HAS DISPLAYED THE MOST
CONSISTENCY. SEAS DROP FROM 3-5 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A MODEST NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SWELL TO ACCOMPANY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET CONTINUING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KRAH 131318
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM...
THIS MORNING...WILL UPDATE A LITTLE EARLY DUE TO STRONGER INITIAL
SURGE OF OVERRUNNING RAIN. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THE QPF AS WELL AS TWEAK THE TEMPS
DOWNWARD A LITTLE AS RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IS STABILIZING IN THE UPPER
30S. - MLM
MOISTURE ON IN THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
LIFTS OVER THE COLDER NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUD BASES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3000 FEET OR BELOW IN OUR SOUTH PARTS AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD
LOCK IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SLIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS THE AIR MASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE MESONAM MODELS HAVE SIMILARLY PLACED 700
MILLIBAR LIFT BULLS EYES LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING... THEY SEEM TO BE BASED ON SUBTLE MINUTE WIND SHIFTS NOT
LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY APPEARS
TO BE WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST... FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A TENTH INCH BUT GENERALLY MUCH LESS. OTHERWISE
LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED AND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN GENERAL SHOULD
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE AN ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTH INCH.
OVERRUNNING SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO ADD VERY LITTLE TO THE RAIN TOTAL.
AS A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW AT 5000 FEET BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT... OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES... TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAWN... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO TRACE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL THREE TO FIVE DEGREES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35 TO 41.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
A CHILLY RAINY PERIOD...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY (OFF
THE SC COAST) SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z/ECMWF
BEFORE OUR DEADLINE... BUT IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 400 AM.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
JIVES WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE 00Z/13 GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE MAIN WAVE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z/NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/GEM. REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CATEGORICAL POP SAT-SAT NIGHT... WITH
QPF IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER... THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWERS POP BACK TO 50/50. THE NEW ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEM
AND NAM.... WITH THE STEADY RAIN LINGERING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED... AND LONGER THAN THE GFS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS.. A
COMMON THEME IS TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS OUR REGION WELL INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG... WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WE WILL EMPHASIZE DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND RAISE POP BACK TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 18Z. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD STABLE DOME TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.
AS FOR THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE CAD EVENT... LOWS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING
REGION... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
ONLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT... RANGING INTO THE
45-50 RANGE SE. LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. THE HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S NORTH CENTRAL... BUT REACH 50-55 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE BY 4-7 DEGREES... ESPECIALLY AT GREENSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND FOR CENTRAL NC DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL... AFTER THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH THE RESIDUAL CAD
LIKELY TO FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS NE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN CLEARING
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE SUN FINALLY RETURNS.
THEREFORE... WE WILL REMOVE POP FOR MON-TUE WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST
GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY... AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THE GULF IS FORECAST TO BE
SHUT OFF FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN INTO THE MID 60S NW-N TO
MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD FALL
BACK A GOOD 10 DEGREES... MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MINIMALLY
IMPACTING VISIBILITY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES COMMON BEFORE NOON. THESE CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY... AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MLM
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HUMBLE
000
FXUS62 KRAH 131138
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ON IN THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
LIFTS OVER THE COLDER NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUD BASES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3000 FEET OR BELOW IN OUR SOUTH PARTS AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD
LOCK IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SLIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS THE AIR MASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE MESONAM MODELS HAVE SIMILARLY PLACED 700
MILLIBAR LIFT BULLS EYES LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING... THEY SEEM TO BE BASED ON SUBTLE MINUTE WIND SHIFTS NOT
LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY APPEARS
TO BE WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST... FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A TENTH INCH BUT GENERALLY MUCH LESS. OTHERWISE
LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED AND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN GENERAL SHOULD
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE AN ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTH INCH.
OVERRUNNING SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO ADD VERY LITTLE TO THE RAIN TOTAL.
AS A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW AT 5000 FEET BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT... OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES... TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAWN... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO TRACE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL THREE TO FIVE DEGREES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35 TO 41.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
A CHILLY RAINY PERIOD...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY (OFF
THE SC COAST) SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z/ECMWF
BEFORE OUR DEADLINE... BUT IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 400 AM.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
JIVES WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE 00Z/13 GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE MAIN WAVE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z/NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/GEM. REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CATEGORICAL POP SAT-SAT NIGHT... WITH
QPF IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER... THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWERS POP BACK TO 50/50. THE NEW ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEM
AND NAM.... WITH THE STEADY RAIN LINGERING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED... AND LONGER THAN THE GFS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS.. A
COMMON THEME IS TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS OUR REGION WELL INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG... WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WE WILL EMPHASIZE DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND RAISE POP BACK TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 18Z. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD STABLE DOME TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.
AS FOR THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE CAD EVENT... LOWS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING
REGION... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
ONLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT... RANGING INTO THE
45-50 RANGE SE. LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. THE HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S NORTH CENTRAL... BUT REACH 50-55 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE BY 4-7 DEGREES... ESPECIALLY AT GREENSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND FOR CENTRAL NC DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL... AFTER THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH THE RESIDUAL CAD
LIKELY TO FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS NE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN CLEARING
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE SUN FINALLY RETURNS.
THEREFORE... WE WILL REMOVE POP FOR MON-TUE WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST
GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY... AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THE GULF IS FORECAST TO BE
SHUT OFF FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD RETURN INTO THE MID 60S NW-N TO
MID 70S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD FALL
BACK A GOOD 10 DEGREES... MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MINIMALLY
IMPACTING VISIBILITY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES CEILINGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES COMMON BEFORE NOON. THESE CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY... AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
000
FXUS62 KILM 131135
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD AIR WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS IS
SHALLOW...BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF EROSION THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE...RESUPPLYING THE CHILLY
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT
3-4K FT...WINDS ARE FROM THE SW...TRANSPORTING MILDER AND MORE
MOIST AIR OVER THE COLD DOME. ALSO...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTH ALONG IT. ALL
THAT SAID... LIFTING MECHANISMS AND THAT INCLUDES ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ARE VERY WEAK THIS PERIOD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...IT IS GOING TO TAKE TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN.
LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH MOST
AREAS RECEIVING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OR SO
W OF I-95 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST THIS PERIOD. AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTH ALONG OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BACK EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELDS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY OFF THE COAST.
THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES WITH TEMPS TODAY WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY MAY ACTUALLY
DECREASE AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE LEVELING OFF...AS RAIN
EVAPORATES...FORCING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR THE WET BULB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WIDELY WITH
REGARDS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAIN THE SAME...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. OMEGA AND
VORTICITY FIELDS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
MOTION. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN WITH
REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...NOW NINE TO ELEVEN DEGREES
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE RESULT
OF THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING INLAND AS THE MAV HAS ONE THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LBT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY. THE MAV REMAINS WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SCENARIO AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS MUCH
MORE SUBDUED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE MISERABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS NOW
SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING FEW DAYS AS THE LATEST
MEX IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 70S FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
GIVE THE AIRMASS AMPLE TIME TO MODIFY. WITH THE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE WARM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS OF THE LATEST MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AROUND 2100 FEET AT FLO/LBT
AND AROUND 1500 FEET AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ONLY ISOLATED AREAS
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS ATTM. MORE
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND WELL
NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE CEILINGS THE LOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
FAIRLY DRY. CEILINGS ARE SHOWING A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND AND WILL
REFLECT THIS IN THE TAFS. GFS IS BULLISH ON LOWERING CEILINGS TO
IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM/WRF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z...WITH IFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE
MODELS ARE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z FEEL THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION
AND MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z. BUT IF RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...THEN IFR CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP EARLIER....MOST LIKELY AT MYR/CRE.
AFTER 18Z BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR MYR/CRE AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER LEVELS TO
BECOME SATURATED. SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES OF IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES OF PREDOMINATE IFR
CEILINGS THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION LOWERS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS PERIOD WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED JUST E OF
THE WATERS. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH TO OUR E IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTEST
ACROSS OUR WATERS...RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE COAST
TO 20 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BEEN AGITATED BY THE INITIAL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE...BUT EXPECT THEY HAVE PEAKED IN THE 6 TO 8 FT
RANGE WITH 9 FT AT 41013. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS PROTECTED BY A NE FETCH WILL
EXPERIENCE MUCH LOWER SEAS...AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS WINDS DROP TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST
ON WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER SCENARIO...WIND SPEEDS DIP TO BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT HAS DISPLAYED THE MOST
CONSISTENCY. SEAS DROP FROM 3-5 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A MODEST NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SWELL TO ACCOMPANY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET CONTINUING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
000
FXUS62 KMHX 130856
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
456 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHILE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE PATN SETTING UP TODAY WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRES AND
CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND STALLED OUT SFC BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH. CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS LOW LVLS
MOISTEN IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
EXPECTING MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY DURING THE AFTN. LTL IF ANY DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISE WILL OCCUR TODAY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH...THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PCPN WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M-U40S (EXCEPT L50S COAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTUALLY DECREASES (TEMPORARILY) OVRNGT BUT WILL
CONT HIGH CHC POPS AS SCTD LIGHT PCPN (RAIN/DRIZZLE) MAY LINGER
IN THE MOIST LOW LVL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO INCREASED PCPN
CHCS THRU SAT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVES ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. SFC
HIGH PRES REBUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER
DRIER LOW LVL AIR INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT BUT
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF PCPN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH LOW LVL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. (A QUICK PEAK
AT THE 13/00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONT THRU
MONDAY.)
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
WIDEPREAD PCPN AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PCPN BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF AND CLOUD COVER THINS OUT.
DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER PCPN INTERVALS WILL BE LIMITED OR
ENTIRELY LACKING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. AN AVERAGE OF
1-1.5 INCH QPF TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT IF AN ERROR WERE
TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FORCING MECHANISMS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
FCST PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN LIKELY PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE MON
NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. COOLER THAN NORML TEMPS PROBABLE EARLY THIS
PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE (LOWER THAN NORMAL LOW LVL
THICKNESS) AND LIGHT LOW LVL FLOW. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A
BUT ABV NORML AS A LOW LVL RETURN FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING SETS UP
DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM...LIGHT NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER AREA TERMINALS WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. VFR CONTINUES OVER WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE CIGS ARE
ABOVE 3K FT WHILE EASTERN TERMINALS ARE SEEING PREDOMINANT MVFR
CIGS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS TODAY AS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES ALONG STALLED FRONT
OFFSHORE TODAY AND LIFTS NE THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
ALL TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK THEN IFR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SREF
PROBABILITY FORECAST INDICATES GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS AFT 21Z CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOS AND LAMP
GUIDANCE SIMILAR. COULD ALSO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF -DZ AND FOG.
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT THROUGH EARLY MON WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM FRI...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH CAD WEDGE IN PLACE OVER INLAND NC.
SEAS CURRENTLY 4 TO 7 FT. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH THEN LIFTING
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
TIGHTEST THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE WAVE PASSES. SHOULD SEE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE TODAY THEN 15
TO 20 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN SEAS SIMILAR IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH 5 TO 8 FT EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6
FT ON SAT. ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SAT THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT WILL
LIMIT SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THEN SEAS DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY SAT EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT N/NW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
LIGHT N/NE FLOW EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE AS SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODERATE NE FLOW MON AND TUE WITH N/NE WINDS 10 TO
20 KT. SEAS AOB 6 FT SUN INTO MON BUT COULD SEE SEAS REACH 6 FT OVER
CENTRAL WATERS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WATERS
WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JW
MARINE...JW
000
FXUS62 KMHX 130835
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WHILE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEDGE PATN SETTING UP TODAY WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRES AND
CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND STALLED OUT SFC BNDRY TO THE
SOUTH. CHCS FOR PCPN WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS LOW LVLS
MOISTEN IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
EXPECTING MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN DURING THE MORN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY DURING THE AFTN. LTL IF ANY DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISE WILL OCCUR TODAY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTH...THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PCPN WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M-U40S (EXCEPT L50S COAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTUALLY DECREASES (TEMPORARILY) OVRNGT BUT WILL
CONT HIGH CHC POPS AS SCTD LIGHT PCPN (RAIN/DRIZZLE) MAY LINGER
IN THE MOIST LOW LVL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO INCREASED PCPN
CHCS THRU SAT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS WAVE OF LOW PRES
MOVES ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT AND PUSHES IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. SFC
HIGH PRES REBUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL FILTER
DRIER LOW LVL AIR INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT BUT
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF PCPN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH LOW LVL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE. (A QUICK PEAK
AT THE 13/00Z ECMWF RUN SUGGS WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONT THRU
MONDAY.)
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THE
WIDEPREAD PCPN AND LOW CLOUD COVER WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PCPN BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF AND CLOUD COVER THINS OUT.
DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER DURING THIS FCST
PERIOD...IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER PCPN INTERVALS WILL BE LIMITED OR
ENTIRELY LACKING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. AN AVERAGE OF
1-1.5 INCH QPF TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT IF AN ERROR WERE
TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST
FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR FORCING MECHANISMS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
FCST PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING PCPN LIKELY PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE MON
NIGHT OR EARLY TUE. COOLER THAN NORML TEMPS PROBABLE EARLY THIS
PERIOD GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE (LOWER THAN NORMAL LOW LVL
THICKNESS) AND LIGHT LOW LVL FLOW. TEMPS RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR A
BUT ABV NORML AS A LOW LVL RETURN FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING SETS UP
DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
&&
.MARINE...
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS62 KRAH 130741
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE ON IN THE INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
LIFTS OVER THE COLDER NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLOUD BASES
HAVE DROPPED TO 3000 FEET OR BELOW IN OUR SOUTH PARTS AND CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD
LOCK IN TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SLIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EVAPORATIVELY COOLS THE AIR MASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE MESONAM MODELS HAVE SIMILARLY PLACED 700
MILLIBAR LIFT BULLS EYES LIFTING OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING... THEY SEEM TO BE BASED ON SUBTLE MINUTE WIND SHIFTS NOT
LIKELY TO VERIFY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY APPEARS
TO BE WHEN MOISTURE IS DEEPEST... FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS A TENTH INCH BUT GENERALLY MUCH LESS. OTHERWISE
LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK LIMITED AND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN GENERAL SHOULD
SHOULD PRODUCE NO MORE AN ADDITIONAL HUNDREDTH INCH.
OVERRUNNING SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO ADD VERY LITTLE TO THE RAIN TOTAL.
AS A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW AT 5000 FEET BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT... OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES... TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TOWARD
DAWN... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO TRACE ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL THREE TO FIVE DEGREES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35 TO 41.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
A CHILLY RAINY PERIOD...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY (OFF
THE SC COAST) SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z/ECMWF
BEFORE OUR DEADLINE... BUT IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 400 AM.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
JIVES WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE 00Z/13 GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE MAIN WAVE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z/NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/GEM. REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CATEGORICAL POP SAT-SAT NIGHT... WITH
QPF IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER... THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWERS POP BACK TO 50/50. THE NEW ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEM
AND NAM.... WITH THE STEADY RAIN LINGERING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED... AND LONGER THAN THE GFS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS.. A
COMMON THEME IS TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS OUR REGION WELL INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG... WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WE WILL EMPHASIZE DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND RAISE POP BACK TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 18Z. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD STABLE DOME TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.
AS FOR THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE CAD EVENT... LOWS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING
REGION... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
ONLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT... RANGING INTO THE
45-50 RANGE SE. LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. THE HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S NORTH CENTRAL... BUT REACH 50-55 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE BY 4-7 DEGREES... ESPECIALLY AT GREENSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND FOR CENTRAL NC DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL... AFTER THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH THE RESIDUAL CAD
LIKELY TO FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS NE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN CLEARING
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE SUN FINALLY RETURNS.
THEREFORE... WE WILL REMOVE POP FOR MON-TUE WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST
GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY... AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THE GULF IS FORECAST TO BE
SHUT OFF FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.
HIGHS WED AND THU SHOULD RETURN INTO THE MID 60S NW-N TO MID 70S
S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD FALL BACK A GOOD
10 DEGREES... MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MINIMALLY IMPACTING VISIBILITY.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COMMON TOWARD MID MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY... AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
000
FXUS62 KILM 130728
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
328 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...COLD AIR WEDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA AND
ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS IS
SHALLOW...BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF EROSION THIS PERIOD. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE...RESUPPLYING THE CHILLY
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT
~3 KFT...WINDS ARE FROM THE SW...TRANSPORTING MILDER AND MORE MOIST
AIR OVER THE COLD DOME. ALSO...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTH ALONG IT. ALL THAT SAID...
LIFTING MECHANISMS AND THAT INCLUDES ISENTROPIC LIFT...ARE VERY WEAK
THIS PERIOD AND WITH SUCH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...IT IS GOING TO
TAKE TIME TO SATURATE THE COLUMN.
LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WITH MOST
AREAS RECEIVING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS...PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OR SO
W OF I-95 WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST THIS PERIOD. AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTH ALONG OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BACK EDGE OF SUCCESSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELDS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY OFF THE COAST.
THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES WITH TEMPS TODAY WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INSULATING THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY MAY ACTUALLY
DECREASE AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE LEVELING OFF...AS RAIN
EVAPORATES...FORCING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR THE WET BULB.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WIDELY WITH
REGARDS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAIN THE SAME...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. OMEGA AND
VORTICITY FIELDS ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
MOTION. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY SATURDAY FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES TRANSLATING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED DOWN POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THE MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WARM WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN WITH
REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...NOW NINE TO ELEVEN DEGREES
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE RESULT
OF THE COASTAL FRONT JUMPING INLAND AS THE MAV HAS ONE THREE HOUR
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LBT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE CONSISTENT MET NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY. THE MAV REMAINS WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH LESS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SCENARIO AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS MUCH
MORE SUBDUED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE MISERABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS NOW
SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER NICE EARLY SPRING FEW DAYS AS THE LATEST
MEX IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 70S FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS CONFIGURATION WILL
GIVE THE AIRMASS AMPLE TIME TO MODIFY. WITH THE PACKAGE THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD THE WARM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING BELOW THE AFOREMENTIONED LEVELS OF THE LATEST MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWER WITH TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MAY
GUST AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL SEEM UNLIKELY AS THE NEW 21Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOW
THAT PROBABILITIES OF CEILINGS LESS THAN 1KFT REMAIN UNDER 40%. IF
WE WERE TO SEE ANY IFR CEILINGS...IT WOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z INLAND...BUT THE INTENSITY WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.
REST OF TODAY...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
THE COAST AND HOVER NEAR 1KFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FARTHER INLAND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 1KFT BY MID-MORNING. BEST CHANCE AT ANY
IFR CEILINGS WILL INITIALLY BE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING GROUP. WITH THAT
SAID...WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1KFT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS...
ESPECIALLY DURING RAIN...CAN`T BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND GUSTY. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING INLAND. EVEN HERE THE
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT AT WORST...ONLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN TOWARD EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. 21Z SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT PROBABILITIES
FOR CEILINGS UNDER 1KFT INCREASE TO NEAR 75% AT KILM AND KLBT BY
THIS EVENING. CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME WILL LOWER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS PERIOD WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED JUST E OF
THE WATERS. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH TO OUR E IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTEST
ACROSS OUR WATERS...RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE COAST
TO 20 NM OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BEEN AGITATED BY THE INITIAL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE...BUT EXPECT THEY HAVE PEAKED IN THE 6 TO 8 FT
RANGE WITH 9 FT AT 41013. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS PROTECTED BY A NE FETCH WILL
EXPERIENCE MUCH LOWER SEAS...AND THIS INCLUDES LONG BAY.
SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...THE NORTHEAST FLOW COURTESY OF THE SYNOPTIC
WEDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS WINDS DROP TO A RANGE
OF 10-15 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE LOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT LEAST
ON WIND DIRECTIONS AS THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE COASTAL FRONT INLAND
WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE FRONT OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN EITHER SCENARIO...WIND SPEEDS DIP TO BELOW 10
KNOTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM AS IT HAS DISPLAYED THE MOST
CONSISTENCY. SEAS DROP FROM 3-5 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO 2-4 FEET BY
LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A MODEST NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SWELL TO ACCOMPANY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET CONTINUING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...EH
000
FXUS62 KRAH 130705
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO OUR REGION INTO
SATURDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMING SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
...A CHILLY RAINY PERIOD...
THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN LIFTING ANOTHER
STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SAT NIGHT...
WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAD BOUNDARY (OFF
THE SC COAST) SUNDAY MORNING. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE 00Z/ECMWF
BEFORE OUR DEADLINE... BUT IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 400 AM.
THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY
JIVES WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE 00Z/13 GFS IS QUICKER IN PUSHING THE MAIN WAVE AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OFFSHORE SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z/NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/GEM. REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS THAT PERIODS OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING... WITH THE RAIN
POSSIBLY TAPERING TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CATEGORICAL POP SAT-SAT NIGHT... WITH
QPF IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER... THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWERS POP BACK TO 50/50. THE NEW ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GEM
AND NAM.... WITH THE STEADY RAIN LINGERING LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED... AND LONGER THAN THE GFS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS.. A
COMMON THEME IS TO KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS VERY MOIST WITH A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS OUR REGION WELL INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG... WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. WE WILL EMPHASIZE DRIZZLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND RAISE POP BACK TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH 18Z. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE COLD STABLE DOME TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z.
AS FOR THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE CAD EVENT... LOWS SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING
REGION... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
ONLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE OVER THE PIEDMONT... RANGING INTO THE
45-50 RANGE SE. LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. THE HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
40S NORTH CENTRAL... BUT REACH 50-55 ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL UNDERCUT
MOS GUIDANCE BY 4-7 DEGREES... ESPECIALLY AT GREENSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS DO SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND FOR CENTRAL NC DURING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL... AFTER THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE COAST. THIS SHOULD MEAN A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH THE RESIDUAL CAD
LIKELY TO FINALLY BE SCOURED OUT BY TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS NE INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN CLEARING
MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY... BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE SUN FINALLY RETURNS.
THEREFORE... WE WILL REMOVE POP FOR MON-TUE WITH SUPPORT FROM MOST
GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY... AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY. A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE THE GULF IS FORECAST TO BE
SHUT OFF FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ADVERTISED LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.
HIGHS WED AND THU SHOULD RETURN INTO THE MID 60S NW-N TO MID 70S
S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD FALL BACK A GOOD
10 DEGREES... MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM...
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MINIMALLY IMPACTING VISIBILITY.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COMMON TOWARD MID MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR FOG PRODUCING MAINLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY... AND MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RLH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RLH
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