FXUS63 KFSD 121545
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FIRE DANGER IS AT FOREFRONT OF CONCERNS TODAY.

BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE TO GET THE 
STRONGEST WINDS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OUT 
WEST. STRONGEST GRADIENT OVER THE S CNTRL COUNTIES IS LATER MORNING 
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTS EWRD SOMEWHAT. AIRMASS STILL 
SOMEWHAT MOIST SHALLOWLY ACRS W...AND UNTIL HEAT ENOUGH TO BREAK 
INITIAL SFC BASED LYR TOWARD 90 DEGREES...WL NOT SEE A GREAT DROP IN 
DWPTS.  WL RAISE DWPTS THRU REST OF MORNING...THEN TAKE DOWN ALL 
AREAS WITH MIXING...BUT MOST SEVERELY IN W AS HEATS OUT WELL INTO 
90S.  MORNING WRN RAOBS SUGGEST THAT A GOOD LEVELING OUT POINT WL BE 
MID TO UPPER 40S W RIVER...TRENDING TO LOWER TO MID 50S TOWARD JAMES 
VLY. NONETHELESS...WITH PLENTY OF WIND YET ON MRR PROFILER...GOOD 
MIXING WL AT LEAST GET THINGS CLOSE...BUT A LONG TERM 25 MPH 
SUSTAINED IS NOT LKLY.  OVERALL...CURRENT SUITE OF FIRE PRODUCTS IN 
GOOD SHAPE...AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GRIDDED DATA TO SUPPORT SUCH.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A DAY MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN MOST OF AUGUST...
WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. 

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN SDZ050-057-063-255
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
CHAPMAN