FXUS62 KCHS 170659 AAA AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 255 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... UPDATED...WILL GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED. A QUICK CHECK OF THE PINEVILLE OB INDICATES WINDS CURRENTLY AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. A COUPLE OF BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY IF ANY STORMS CAN GET PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED. WINDS HAVE BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL BASED ON THE VWP BUT SOME LOW LVL SE FLOW IN THE VERY LOWEST LAYERS SEEN ON FIRST GLIMPSE OF 06Z SOUNDING. TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. WITH THE EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT DEVELOP DO NOT ANTICIPATE A BIG FLOODING THREAT. IF ECHOES TRAIN REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME AREA...COULD SEE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND A QUICK INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE BUT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN AFTER ANY POTENTIAL HEATING ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. DRYER MID LVL AIR TO MOVE INTO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE THE NRN SECTIONS FOR TODAY CLOSER TO DECENT DYNAMICS THAT SHOULD SWING THROUGH AND ALSO COINCIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. PLAN TO GO WITH AT LEAST 70 POPS FOR THE NRN SECTIONS AND TAPER OFF TO 50 OR SO ON THE GA COAST. BIG PROBLEM TODAY COULD BE GUSTY WINDS WITH UP TO 45 KT AT 3KFT. WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY FOR UPR LVL WINDS TO REALLY DROP MUCH. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY PARTICULARLY IF THE SUN CAN POKE OUT AT TIMES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A VERY INTERESTING PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLN MORE SO THAN PREV RUNS. THE UPR LVL REMNANTS OF IVAN ARE FCST TO MOVE NE THEN DROP BACK TO THE S OVER SC AND GA AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN A FRONTL BNDRY. THE SFC REFLECTION SHOULD COINCIDE UNTIL IT GETS LOST FCST FRNTL BNDRY ALONG THE COAST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH UPR LOW MOVING THROUGH AND A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE. ONSHORE FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY LOW LVL MOISTURE BUT SOME LIFT AND POSSIBLE COASTAL TROF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN THE COAST. NET RESULT WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEK. TPC FCST HAS BEEN BRINGING JEANNE INTO THE SC AND OR GA COAST SOME TIME ON TUE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF FCST RUNS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLOWER SOLN ON THE NEXT PACKAGE GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO SLY ALL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SOLID 20 TO 25 KT REPORTED BOTH NEAR AND OFFSHORE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 7 TO 9 FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND WERE LIKELY BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WILL INITIALIZE WITH SCA ALL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME THRU TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FASTER BUILDING HIGH PRES DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST AND HAVE MADE CHANGES SAT AND SUN VEERING WINDS TO W AND NW...THEN NE BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME TIGHTER MON AND TUE...LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WHERE TS OR HRCN JEANNE IS LOCATED. SEA HEIGHTS IN THE LATTER PERIODS PROBLEMATIC... PLAN TO MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS WITH COORD FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES. && .AVIATION... GUSTY S WINDS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TERMS WITH A BKN LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY SET TO BRUSH SAVANNAH IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME AND A BIT LATER AT CHS. THE CHS TERM IS TRICKIER AS CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE OCEAN IS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CIGS 015-025 THRU 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING A BIT LONGER. KEPT WIND GUSTS ALL DAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT CHS AFTER 15Z. ENDED RAIN AT SAV TERM AROUND 12Z BUT KEPT SOME PROBS TDA FURTHER UPSTREAM AT CHS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352-354-374. && $$ 18/24