AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 830 PM MST (930 PM CST) THU MAR 18 1999 WL HAVE TO DO SOME TINKERING WITH ALL ELEMENTS OF FCST FOR TONIGHT. SATL/PLAN PROFILER WINDS SHOW THAT LOW HAS MOVED LTL SINCE LATE THIS AFTN. IF ANYTHING IT HAS REGRESSED TO THE WEST A LTL. THREE MAIN MODELS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AT 00Z. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON IT...AND JUST BARELY MOVES LOW INTO WRN TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z. PLACES THAT WERE SNOWG IN SE CO HAVE LET UP CONSIDERABLY ON INTENSITY AND HAVE SHOWN TENDENCY TO BOUNCE BTWN PCPN TYPES HERE RECENTLY TO JUST SW OF CWA. GLD WSR-88D HAS SHOWN A NARROW BAND OF PCPN OVR SRN PTN CWA. CALLS DOWN TO WICHITA CNTY INDICATE ONLY LIGHT RA OR MIXTURE OF PCPN HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS BAND. TEMPS ACROSS CWA RANGE FM NR 35 TO NR 40. DDC AND AMA SNDGS SHOW ANY KIND OF PCPN COULD OCCUR RIGHT NOW AND AREA PROFILERS WOULD INDICATE WAA STILL OCCURING ALOFT. WITH SLOWR MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOSER TO CWA AS INDICATED BY LATEST RUC/UPR LVL WINDS AND ABV REASONING...WL CHANGE PCPN TYPE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. WL PUT RA OR MIX IN NRN CNTIES FOR ENTIRE NIGHT. WL PUT MIX OVR REST OF CWA INITIALLY. SHOULD CHANGE TO SN IN EXTREME SOUTH FIRST WITH THE CHANGE OVR OCCURRING OVR REST OF CWA MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLD COVER...CURRENT DPS...AND PCPN MOISTENING UP LOW LVLS WL KEEP MINS HIR THAN CURRENT FCST AND WL RAISE ENTIRE CWA TO NR 30. SFC RDG ATTM IS DIVIDING CWA INTO NW/SE HALVES. LATEST RUC AND SFC ANAL SHOW THAT RDG WL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH OVER AREA REST OF TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE PUT IN L/V WINDS OVR ENTIRE CWA. .GLD...NONE. BULLER NNNN ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 210 PM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES WITH MEANDERING CUTOFF AND APPROACHING S/W. SHORT TERM SITUATION FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED BY 18Z RUC WHICH LINES UP WITH 12Z ETA. ONLY MID-HIGH MOISTURE FLOATING BY NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO AT WORST MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR TONIGHT. SOME RENEGADE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SEMO...BUT DO NOT PLAN TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE FIGURING OUT PATH FOR CUTOFF TO TAKE. AT THIS RATE...CUTOFF WILL SIMPLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MODELS FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON MOVING REMNANTS OF IT SOUTHEAST OVER WEEKEND...WITH ETA THE SLOWEST. AVN AND NGM LINING UP ON SPEED...WITH NGM MOST AMPLIFIED MODEL. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON STRENGTH OF APPROACHING NORTHERN S/W OR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. LIKE THE SLOWER MOVEMENT ADVERTISED BY ETA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT TRUST ETA SOLUTIONS MUCH BEYOND 24 HOURS THIS SEASON. WILL TAKE MID-RANGE BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE...RESULTING IN LESS INTENSE COLD FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY THAN NGM SUGGESTS BUT NOT AS WIMPY AS ETA. REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR RAIN SATURDAY JUDGING BY THE LACK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED AROUND CORE OF LOW/NO GULF INFLOW/MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. PLAN TO HAVE NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES. PLAN ON CLEARING OUT WEST SIDE OF FA BY SUNDAY BUT THINK THERE COULD BE COLD AIR STRATO-CU OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN BALLPARK BUT MAY SHADE A CAT ABOVE THOSE NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN GO NEAR GUIDANCE SUNDAY. FOR EXTENDED...THINK 93P AND 94P TEMPS ARE TOO COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL TREND TOWARD THE FMR. OTHERWISE DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE. .PAH...NONE SDB NNNN ky STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1000 AM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 FORECAST BASICALLY LOOKS GOOD. RUC MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN MOUNATINS SO WILL CUT MAXIMUM TEMPEREATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. .RLX... WV...NONE. VA...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. .END/AAR NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1107 AM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF THIN STRATUS CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR W UPPER MI. CLOUD AREAS ARE ERODING QUICKLY FROM THE EDGES AS DAYTIME HEATING IS MIXING OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE INVERSION...AND 12Z RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL RH VALUES DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTN. SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LOW CLOUD COVER. UPSTREAM...NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT REGION IS MOVING THROUGH S ALBERTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SE INTO GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER W END OF N AMERICA. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE CI/AC SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE IS OF INTEREST. CLOUD SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA AND JUST ACROSS BORDER INTO NDAKOTA AND NW MN. MEAN 500-300MB RH FROM THE 12Z RUC CAPTURES APPROACHING CLOUD AREA WELL WITH THE LEADING EDGE ALIGNING ROUGHLY ALONG RH GREATER THAN 65 PCT. USING THIS AS A GUIDE...EXPECT TO SEE THIN HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH W FA AROUND 21Z. SO MOST OF AFTN WILL FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALL AREAS. CURRENT FCST HAS HIGHS 35 TO 40 N AND E AND AROUND 40 S AND W. WITH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO FWC THIS MORNING AND LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS NEAR CURRENT FCST...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WITH WAA BEGINNING...WILL BUMP FAR WEST UP INTO LOWER 40S. WIND OVER E HALF OF FA GUSTY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES E INTO C UPPER MI THIS AFTN...WIND WILL DIMINISH. REST OF FA WILL SEE LIGHT WIND. ROLFSON NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR NORTHERN LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1035 AM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN WILL APPROACH REGION TODAY ALONG WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAK RIDGE. SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO DROP INTO SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA BY ALL MODELS SHOULD NOT HAVE AFFECT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND WILL NEED TO BUMP UP SOME AREAS ABOUT A CATEGORY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL BUT WARMER START AND LESS CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. DOWNSLOPE OVER SOUTHEAST PART OF CWA PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 40S ALREADY. EXPECT 5 TO 10 DEGREE RISE FROM CURRENT TEMPS. WINDS ARE PRETTY GUSTY THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES WITH WEAKER GRADIENT. COLD ADVECTION CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT BREAKING UP OVER NORTHWEST LOWER. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WARM MARCH SUN MIXES DOWN DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 850 MB AND ERODES STRATOCU. RUC AGREES AS 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO REGION OVERNIGHT. MIGHT NEED TO BE MORE PESSEMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LOOK AT THAT THIS AFTERNOON. FARINA NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 916 AM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 RAH: CHANGE WIND DIR TO NE OR N. CAE: NO CHANGES. CD FNT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE WITH A WK AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS HI HAS TEMPORARILY BROUGHT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURES AND INDICATES IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HI OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE N THROUGH THE AFTN AND DIR NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED FOR ALL OF SE NC. STILL A NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE MEAN TROF JUST OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. MEAN RH WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTN AND WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF SUN. BEST CAA REMAINS CLOSER TO THE MEAN TROF SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND CURRENT FCSTS LOOK OK. CWF: WINDS CURRENTLY NE AROUND 20 KT. CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING THE SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 THIS AFTN LOOKS GOOD AS THE DIR BACKS TO THE N. WILL HOLD SEAS AT 4 FT. .ILM...NONE. IRELAND NNNN nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 12Z RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR AMA THIS MORNING. MODEL DATA AND MORNING ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TODAY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AS BAND OF RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF KANSAS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS NEAR UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. INSTABILITY CU OVER PARTS OF TEXAS SHOULD HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WHERE BREAKS IN OVERCAST HAVE OCCURRED. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE CURRENT READINGS. 6 NNNN ok NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 800 PM PST THU MAR 18 1999 NO CHANGES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS EVENING. 00Z PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW NEAR 40N/131W WAS CLOSE TO WHERE THE 12Z NGM AND 18Z RUC HAD PLACED IT. AS SUCH...STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST...MOVING ONSHORE SOUTH OF KSFO BY 00Z/ SATURDAY. SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO NEVADA BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE SHORTER TERM...THICK HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS READINGS IN MOST PLACES. ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE BACKFLOW OF THE DEPART- ING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. EXTENDED: CUT OFF LOW TRACKING THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ALIVE SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY. ISAACSON PDT 1212 ALW 1212 PSC 0112 YKM 0111 .KPDT...WSR-88D...VCP 32/CSR 21...OPERATIONAL. .KPDT...NONE. NNNN or SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 955 AM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 COLD FRONT FINALLY OUT OF CWA. BASED ON THIS AND LATEST RUC MODEL...BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN WILL STAY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO OVERRUNNING RAIN. WILL UPDATE ZONES ACCORDINGLY AND REMOVE POPS IN HILL COUNTRY. WILL ALSO UP WINDS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. .SAT...NONE. 03/10 NNNN tx WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 345 AM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 UPR LOW TOOK MORE OF A WLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED ATTM LAST NGT AND IS CURRENTLY VCNTY KCVS PER STLT IMAGERY. KLBB 88D INDICATES PATCHY WK RETURNS OVR NWRN S PLAINS/SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND KCVS REPORTED -SN PAST HR. 00Z MODEL SOLNS ARE VERY SIMILAR THIS PERIOD IN TAKG UPR LOW EWRD INTO NWRN OK TDA AND INTO THE OZARKS TNGT. WRAP AROUND MSTR WL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY ACRS NRN S PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE TDA AND PATCHY -SN/-RA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WL CARRY SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NRN TWO TIERS TDA...SHOULD BE -SN EXCEPT OVR THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE 06Z RUC AND 00Z ETA SUGGEST AMS A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WL CARRY SOME MRNG FLURRIES OVR THE RMNDR OF THE S PLAINS. LATEST IR STLT LOOP SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS HAVE DVLPD SWRD AS FAR AS THE PECOS RVR BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION AFT SR ACRS THE PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VLY AND PSBLY EVEN THE SRN S PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. UPR RDG TAKES SHAPE OVR THE ROCKIES BHD THE EXITG SRN PLAINS SYS WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM UP EXPECTED ON SAT. A SHORT WV TRANSLATG THRU THE MIDWEST WL DRAG ANOTHER CD FNT INTO WTX SAT NGT/SUN BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLG WL BE FELT E OF OUR REGION. NEXT SYS TO AFFECT WTX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NR 38N/130W AND IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE INLAND ON SAT. SYS THEN TRANSLATES ACRS THE CNTRL ROCKIES ON SUN PER THE AVN AND ECMWF MODELS...WL RUN WITH THE ONGOING DRY WEEKEND FCST FOR NOW. LBB 47/31/63/36 -000 CDS 44/34/60/38 2-00 PVW 43/30/61/35 2000 .LBB...NONE. EJC NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 945 PM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING UPPER MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTHWEST... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG AND MOVING ESE. SCT/BKN CIRUS HAVE REACHED UPPER MICHIGAN... BUT METARS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN ONTARIO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AND THERE IS SNOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. THERE IS ALSO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN HEADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THERE AREN'T MANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DESPITE A MODERATE Q-VECTOR SIGNATURE. MAIN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM 850-500MB AND 500-300MB AND SYNOPTIC OMEGA REACHES NORTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK AND MANY SITES HAVE GONE CALM. SURFACE LOW WILL REACH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER... THIS WILL BE A WARM ADVECTION WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTUAL WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN GRADIENT WINDS FORECAST BY MODELS. AVN... NGM... AND RUC SHOW SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK SEEM MORE REALISTIC... AS SHOWN IN FWC WINDS FOR MQT. UPDATE OF ZFP WILL TAME WINDS DOWN SOME IN THE SHORT TERM AND THEN INCREASE THEM AGAIN TOWARD MORNING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. .MQT...NONE. ES NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 934 PM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. IR STLT SHOWING AREA OF ENHANCED MID CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO NRN MN. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR STLT SHOWING EAST UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 00Z RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR LOWER OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MOISTURE IN THE 700/500 MB LAYER BEGINS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 60-70 PERCENT OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT... AND TO 50 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LATEST STLT TRENDS SHOWING THIS MSTR HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A HARD TIME INTO EAST LAKE SUPERIOR...THEREFORE WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF LAKE SUPERIOR CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR EAST UPPER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS SEEM TO BE IN LINE. SWR NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 810 PM EST FRI MAR 19 1999 RAH/CAE: WL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY COND FOR PEE DEE. ARND 40 MGT WORK BTR INL & LOWER 40S CST. WL DECIDE AFT FURTHER INVESTIGATION. WRKWIL @ YA IN 45 MINS. ZNS: IR SATL LOOP SHOWG SOME WISPY CI MOVG ACRS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE IN UPPER LVLS. 21Z RUCII HAD PLACEMENT OF H5 CLOSED LOW OVER WRN OK HANDLED WELL. H5 VORT TO TRAVEL TWD CWA ERLY SAT PROVIDG INCG CI. BLYR WIND TO BECOME NE BY 09Z W/INC TO 10 KTS PER THE RUC. THIS CUD HALT TEMPS FM FALLG TO NR GUID LVLS. LAMP PROJ GIVES LOW/MID 40S. 3 HRLY FWC TRENDS RUNNG TOO COOL PER LATEST READGS. OTHER THAN THAT...QUIET NGT & COOLER. CWF: WINDS PRETTY MUCH VRBL PER LATEST MARINE RPRTS. DIR TO BECOME NnE OVNGT W/SPDS GOING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WL RUN 3-4 FT. RUC IS SLOWER TO BRING THE WINDS ARND. .ILM...NONE. HAVE A SUPER NGT!. JAH NNNN nc EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 815 PM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 00Z RUC MOVES CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM E/SE INTO E OK BY 12Z. BAND OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED THIS EVE AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RUC SHOWING ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN SE OKLAHOMA AND HAVE SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES DOWN THERE. CAN'T RULE OUT THUNDER IN COLD POOL ALOFT EITHER...SO CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN FORECAST AREAWIDE LOOKS GOOD. WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...GOING POPS ARE FINE. MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS IN SE IN A FEW HOURS WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKING EASTWARD ALONG RED RIVER...BUT NO NEED TO UPDATE GOING ZONES AT THE MOMENT. WILL LOOK AT EVE MODELS AND SEE IF HIGHER POPS NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY IN NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM. 1000-500MB THICKNESS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW UNDER CENTER OF LOW BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPS TOO WARM. HOPEFULLY THERE WONT' BE ANY SURPRISES UNDER THIS CLOSED LOW. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THE MOMENT...BUT MAY UPDATE LATER THIS EVE. /13 .TUL... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. NNNN ok SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 815 PM CST FRI MAR 19 1999 KHGX RADAR SHOWING SCT SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING. CF LOCATED FROM PSX TO HOU TO NEAR WOODVILLE. RUC INDICATES A SLOW EASTWARD PUSH WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SLOW DRYING FOR FA TONIGHT. SPEED MAX IN SUBTROPICAL JET IS AIDING CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECT SHWR COVERAGE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NE. SFC WIND FIELD IS WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS NOT ABLE TO FOCUS PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE DROP FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX AND REMOVE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS UPDATE. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHWR COVERAGE STILL OCCURRING THIS EVENING SO WILL ADJUST WORDING IN ZONES BUT RETAIN CURRENT POPS. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH AN HOUR. LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK. .HGX...NONE. 33/36 PREVIOUS PRELIMS... CLL BB 049/065 045/069 044 610 IAH BB 054/068 047/071 048 820 GLS BB 061/067 055/067 053 830 NNNN tx UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH 840 PM MST FRI MAR 19 1999 RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH CUTOFF LOW OFF CA COAST. RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS STATE. HOWEVER...AS FOR WINDS...PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AND WINDS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO RECORD RANGE. NICE DAY ANYWAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH CUTOFF. MORNING'S MODELS DIVERGED IN CUTOFF TRACK...WITH AVN BRINGING A DYING SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE...BUT WITH THE ETA BEING MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. NEW ETA'S 00Z ANALYSIS MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z AVN AND CURRENT RUC IN TERMS OF LOWS 500MB CENTER HEIGHT...GIVING SOME SUPPORT TO AVN'S IDEA. ONLY CONCERN WITH CURRENT PACKAGE...OUTSIDE OF LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE...IS TIMING OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT (WHICH OF COURSE IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT PIN DOWN WITH LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE... ). BEST DYNAMICS SEEM TO BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY... WHEREAS FORECAST HITS SUNDAY PERIOD THE HARDEST. 12Z AVN SHOWS WARMING ALOFT AT 700MB AND 500MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN UT ON THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT. ALSO ALL VORTICITY ADVECTION GONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. SLC 0047 CDC 0243 ZAFF .SLC...NONE. NNNN ut MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 325 AM PST FRI MAR 19 1999 SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL SPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE OWENS VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING MORE SUN AND LESS WIND BY SUNDAY. DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED TO GET NUDGED INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT. LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT. WE PREFER THE SLIGHTLY MORE CLOSED AND FURTHER NORTH DEPICTION GIVEN BY THE NGM BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND COMPARISON WITH THE SHORT-TERM RUC MODEL. BELIEVE THE STRONG VORT MAX SHOWN ON THE ETA IS TOO FAR SOUTH GIVEN THE RUC TRENDS. SO WE SUPPORT PREVIOUS TWO SHIFTS REMOVAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY FROM LAS VEGAS SOUTH. VORT LOBE PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN SAN JUAQIN VALLEY WITH NARROW PRECIPITATION BAND WILL EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN SIERRA EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TO WESTERN INYO COUNTY. BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED ON LEE SIDE OF SIERRA FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 2-4 SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR EASTERN SIERRA. VORT LOBE SHOULD EDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THERE AS WELL. LOBE WILL EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE EVENING...BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER CHANCES OTHER THAN SPRING MOUNTAINS; ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE SOME VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES MOST AREAS SHOULD DISRUPT MUCH OF THE STABLE HORIZONTAL GRADIENT FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN A FEW AREAS FIRST TWO PERIODS...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ZONES. AS SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO UTAH EARLU SUNDAY AIRMASS WILL STABILIZE IN MILD ZONAL FLOW. MRF FAILURE ON NCEP CRAYS MEANS NO NEW MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. SHORT TERM MOVEMENTS ALSO DO NOT SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED. SO STILL EXPECTING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY-ISH. MCQUEEN .LAS...NONE. NNNN nv SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 215 AM CST SAT MAR 20 1999 IR/WV/FOG IMAGERY AND KHGX/KEWX SHOW AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF SERN TX...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 300 MB JET MAX AND 500 MB RIPPLE AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW OVER OK. THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS FROM CRS TO JUST WEST OF AUS TO HDO...WITH FOG IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CEILING CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ALONG THIS LINE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TRENDING OUT POPS...THEN CLOUDS OVER THE CWA IN THE FIRST PERIOD. THE 00Z AVN/NGM/ETA AND 03Z RUC ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH POPS ENDING FROM W TO E...FOLLOWED 4-6 HOURS LATER BY CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE. OTHERWISE...PREFER COOLER FAN TEMPS AND WILL MENTION FIRST PERIOD FOG IN THE COASTAL ZONES. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SAN BERNARD RIVER FROM BELOW EAST BERNARD TO ABOVE SWEENY. .HGX...NONE. 31/40/35 PRELIMS... POPS ENDING AROUND SKIES CLEARING AROUND CLL BU 064/043 069/048 070 400 12Z 18Z IAH EU 067/045 071/050 072 300 14Z 20Z GLS EU 065/052 067/057 069 300 16Z 22Z NNNN tx FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 20 1999 NO 03Z MESOETA OR 12Z RUC DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT NCEP. 00Z NGM SHOWED SOME CVA AND MIDLVL OMEGA THIS AM WHICH IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LINGERING SC OVER ERN CWA WHICH WILL EXIT THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS ARND NOON PER SAT LOOP EXTRAPOLATION. LACK OF MOISTURE THIS PM PER MODEL X-SCTNS AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WND SO WILL GO WITH SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY NHZ12/MAZ05>07 PER SAT IMAGES AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE PER MODEL X-SCTNS( ESPECIALLY ETA ). TEMPS CONFINED TO THE 40S THIS PM PER 12Z CHH SOUNDING AND WRKSIG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BASE OF INVERSION AND RESULTING MIXING LOWERING TO 900 MB. MAY ADJUST TEMPS A SMIDGE DOWNWARD BUT OTRW PREVIOUS PCKG HANDLED THEM WELL. WILL ADJUST WND DIRECTION IN SOME AREAS BASED ON MODEL DEPICTED WEAK AND SUBTLE SFC TROF. WILL LOWER SPDS A BIT AS GRAD RELAXES WITH HI PRES BLDG IN. MARINE: WEAK SUBTLE SFC TROF DEPICTED BY 00Z ETA/NGM AND EVIDENT ON 14Z SFC ANALYSIS WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING WND EVERYWHERE AND LIKELY BACKING TO THE W ALONG S CST LATE IN DAY. OTRW...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS. .BOS...NONE. BURTON NNNN ma MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST SAT MAR 20 1999 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WIND AND CLOUD TRENDS. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO NORTHERN CWA. FRONTAL BAND OF AC/CI MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. ETAWX TOTAL CLOUD PRODUCT WAS INDICATING BEST AREA OF CLOUDS HOLDING IN THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER INTO WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AS 50H TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONGEST CAA JUST BEHIND FRONT AND MSAS WAS SHOWING FRONT NEAR A KMSP-KMKT-KFRM LINE AS OF 15Z. FORECAST WINDS AROUND 6K FT SHOW POSSIBLE 35KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...OVER MUCH OF CWA. STILL APPEARS TO BE BELOW LOCAL WIND ADV CRITERIA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM OVER CWA. LAMP GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING NEAR 40 FAR NORTHWEST AND IN THE 40S MOST PLACES. THE RUC AND OFF HOUR ETA ARE OLD AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NEW GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. .MSP...NONE DWE NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 930 AM EST SAT MAR 20 1999 DISC: CURRENTLY QUITE OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NE OVER AREA. WITH A RESULTANT WIND TO KICK AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AS WATER TEMPS RANGE FROM 52 SE NC COAST TO 55 ALONG GRAND STRAND. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG COAST AND MAY BE MIDDLE 60S OVER PEE DEE. BIGGEST CONCERN OVER TEMPS IN PEE DEE IS THAT UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ONLY SUPPORT 60 TO 62 DEGREES. AVN AND ETA DO SUPPORT UPPER 60S OVER FLO BUT OLD 03Z RUC APPEARS TO SUPPORT SOUNDINGS. ALSO LAMP SUPPORTS FCST TEMPS AS IS (63 ILM...61 MYR...62 CRE... AND 68 FLO). THUS WILL TWEAK TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE... FCST LOOKS FINE BUT WISH POPS WERE MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SE NC TO GO ALONG WITH PREVIOUS MODELS AND CONTINUITY ACROSS STATE LINE. BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DECISION FOR AFTN PACKAGE. CWF... WILL TWEAK THE SOUTH WATERS A BIT AS WINDS AT 41004 HAS COME AROUND TO THE EAST. .ILM...NONE. HAWKINS NNNN nc