FXUS64 KMAF 191844
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2003

SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA.  WEST COAST
TROUGH COMES EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FLATTENING OUT RIDGE BUT NOT
DISPLACING IT.

NO GREAT FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION ALTHOUGH NEW MEXICO COUNTIES
AND WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN GETTING PRECIP THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.  GIVEN EASTERLY FORECASTED WINDS EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE.
RIGHT NOW MOISTURE PACKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS BUT A WEAK DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  DRYLINE WILL WAFFLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SHARPEN UP A LITTLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  DRYLINE COULD
HELP CONVECTION BUT MODEL PRECIP DOES NOT SEEM TO CONCENTRATE ON IT.

PLANNING ON ADDING POPS TO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND INCREASING NORTH TO
MATCH UP BETTER.  MODELS TEND TO KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP OUT WEST.
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AROUND PERMIAN BASIN AS MORNING/MODEL
SOUNDINGS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SOME CAPE.

ALL GUIDANCES IN AGREEMENT... ALL HAVE WARMING TEMPS.  WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CAP ATMOSPHERE NEW WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

LATEST RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH LEA
COUNTY INTO TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OVER DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WARNING TREND ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INITIAL NUMBERS FOLLOW.

MAF  67/93/69/97/71  1000
CNM  63/95/66/98/68  2010
MRF  58/85/59/88/61  2010
FST  68/95/70/98/73  0000

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

$$

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