FXUS63 KGLD 230857 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2003

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING 
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY AND 
TUESDAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE 
WEEK.  AT THE SURFACE...A SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK 
AND FORTH NEXT 48 HOURS BENEATH SW UPPER FLOW.  MODELS INDICATE A 
PLUME A WARM AIR WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA NEXT TWO 
DAYS AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH SW SURFACE FLOW.  850 TEMPS FORECAST AT 29-32 
DEGREES C SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95 RANGE TODAY AND 
TUESDAY...IN AGREEMENT WITH GOING FORECAST.

NEXT MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG 
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AS ADVERTISED BY AVN/ETA. AIRMASS BEHIND 
FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY POTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND HAVE ADJUSTED 
TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE 
TRICKY DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  
WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WARM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT INTRODUCE 
A BIT MORE COOLING IN THE NORTHWEST.

MODELS DO NOT GO GANGBUSTERS WITH PRECIP MIDWEEK ASSOCIATED WITH 
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR 
WED-WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME. ON THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD INTO THE AREA...BUT SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO 
MOVE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH.  WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING 
FOR THURSDAY IN CASE ANYTHING DEVELOPS ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADVECTS 
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.GLD...NONE.

$$

DLF