SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST TUE JUL 27 1999
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT FROM
MEXICO AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL MONSOON
THUNDERSTORM REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MOIST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SERVERAL DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA.
.DISCUSSION...
COMMUNICATION AND WEATHER PROBLEMS HAVE EATEN UP TIME THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION...ONLY NEW MODEL DATA IS FROM THE RUC. THE RUC IMPLIES A
WEAKENING OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT HAS ENHANCED THE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT CONVINCED OF THAT BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS EAST OF THE PHX AREA. BASED ON THE PREFERRED 12Z ETA...
WE SHOULD LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PER CURRENT
FORECAST. WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE...BUT WILL MAKE A FEW 1ST PERIOD
CHANGES FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING. WILT
FXUS65 KPSR 272150 az
AFSOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 27 1999
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOR THE CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...FIRST EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY HAVING PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS CENTER OF SECOND
EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE BORDER IN CHIHUAHUA MOVING AT ABOUT 30 MPH.
BIG QUESTION IS WILL IT MOVE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE
MODELS SHOW...OR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. IN EITHER CASE
DYNAMICS WOULD REACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CENTER OF
THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE FILLING IN WITH MORE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. LEADING EDGE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH BUILD UPS
DEVELOPING NEAR EL PASO AT THIS TIME. SOUNDING SHOWS EASTERLY WIND
AT LOW LEVELS AND SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT...THE RUC AGREES WITH THIS AT
12Z. BUT BY 18Z THE RUC SHOWS FLOW AT BOTH LEVELS FROM THE SAME
DIRECTION. THUS ANVILS WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND
COOL/STABILIZE THE AIR THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO. THIS ALL LOOKS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THERE IS MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING AS
THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO ARIZONA DURING THE HEATING PERIOD OF
THE DAY. ALSO...SOUNDING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS OCCURRED.
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WILL INCLUDE SOUTHEAST
PINAL COUNTY...BUT IF THE WAVE MOVE WEST RATHER THAN
NORTHWEST...MAIN RAINFALL MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF TUCSON.
PREFER THE NGM INITIALIZATION. GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES
SHOW DRIER AIR BETWEEN ARIZONA AND THE WAVE...BUT WITH ALL THE
MOISTURE HERE NOW DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR. NGM PUTS
THE THETA E RIDGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THUS SOME STORMS MAY BACK
BUILD INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE AS YESTERDAY. THE THETA E RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.
.TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 19Z TO 03Z ZONES 29,30,32,33,34,AND 35.
FXUS65 KFGZ 271611 az
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999
EASTERLY WAVE NOW MOVING THRU SRN AZ/NW MEXICO ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z RUC. THE RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS FEATURE
SLOWLY NWWD TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WILL
NEED TO WATCH ITS MOISTURE AND PROGRESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO 2500-3000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE FT ORD
PROFILER WHILE SNS-FAT AND SMX-FAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUPPORT
CONTINUED IMPORT OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT AS
SEEN ON LATEST SURFACE PLOT. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT LOOK GOOD
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND 24 HOUR CHANGES. WILL PREPARE AN UPDATE
FOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS TONIGHT. SR
.HNX...NONE.
FXUS66 KEKA 280348 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
945 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
ROTATING OVER CWA AT THIS TIME. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ABOVE 600 MB. RUC AND MESO ETA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PROG MID-LEVEL WARMING TO CONTINUE TODAY... WHICH SHOULD
CAP DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT. APPEARS
RECORD HIGH OF 99F FOR TLH IS STILL IN JEOPARDY...AS WE ARE ALREADY
AT 85F. LAMP PROGS KEEP LOW 70F DEWPOINTS OVER AREA ...RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110F. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN
ZONES AND UPDATED SPS.
MARINE: A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING SW OF AQQ...BUT EXPECT THESE TO
DISSIPATE SOON...SO WILL OMIT MENTION IN CWF UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON.
ALL ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATED CWF (MIAWRKTL2) ALREADY SENT. UPDATED ZONES (MIAWRKTL1) ON
THE WAY. INPUT/FEEDBACK ALWAYS WELCOME.
TJT
FXUS62 KMLB 271338 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 AM EST TUE JUL 27 1999
ST/FG LIFTING ACRS SRN LWR MI. WL UPDATE FOR MSNY WITH SIG DRY AIR
ABOVE 860 MB PER SNDGS/WV IMAGERY...ONLY SCT FLAT CU EXPECTED. 950 MB
RUC TEMPS TO 27C BY 21Z MAY TWEAK A FEW TEMPS UP TO NEAR 90 BASED ON
14Z OBS.
.IWX...NONE
PBM
FXUS73 KIND 270840 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
MAIN CONCERN FOR ERY PRT OF FCST IS WHERE WARM FNT WL BE LOCATED AND
THE ASSOCIATED DVLPMNT INVOF THE BNDRY HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ONLY AREA
OF CONCERN AS OLD BNDRY LIES S OF THE ST. BELIEVE AFT THIS ROUND OF
DVLPMNT THAT LKLY JUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
IN THE SHORT TERM RUC/ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING FEATURES WELL AT
THIS TIME. OLD BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE ST AND DEEP MOISTURE CAN NOT
LIFT POPS IN SRN PORTION OF THE ST. CAPES 5600-7800 AND LIS -8 TO -
10 STG CASE FOR POPS. MNWHLE UP NORTH WL LKLY REDUCE GD CHC TO CHC
AS WARM FNT CONTINUES TO MOVE N. 2 TO 2.5 MB FALLS IN DAKS AND MN
WITH SHARP INCRS IN DEWPT SINCE MRNG, LOW TO MID 60S TO LOW TO MID
70S IMPRESSIVE AND HINT WARM FNT ON THE MOVE. MIDDLE OF THE ST LOOKS
LEAST FAVORABLE FOR DVLPMNT AS STEERING FLO DOES NOT FVR MVMNT TWD
CNTRL IA AND NW FLO OVR MUCH OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE ST WULD
SUGGEST DVLPMNT ERN SD WULD DRIFT INTO THE NC AND NE. PWS RMN IN THE
2 TO 2.5 IN RANGE SO IF DVLPMNT OCCURS THO ISOLD WULD NOT XPCT FFA
ATTM.
THO CRITERIA WL LKLY BE MET ON WED AND THU FOR HEAT ADVSRY TNGT
MARGINAL ON CRITERIA. REST OF FCST PD LOOKS HOT AND HUMID AS ANY
FOCUSING BNDRY LACKING AND ACTION SHULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF IA.
MST OF THE AREA UNDER NVA THO A FEW MINOR S/W WASH OUT OVR THE ST
WITH NO BNDRY TO FOCUS ON AND LKLY STG CAP DO NOT SEE DVLPMNT UP TO A
30 PCT THRESHHOLD.
GUID LOOK GOOD AND EVEN FVR HIER FWCS AS HINT OF A DRIER WRLY FLO OVR
NXT SVRL DAYS CULD PUSH CNTLR IA TO THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR FIRST
TIME AS JUST SVRL DAYS AGO DESPITE HIGH HUMIDITY HIT 98.
LOOK INTO EFP MDLS FOR CNTRL U.S. VRY CLOSE IN SOLUTION HWVR IN LTR
PDS DIFF IN LARGE TORF FEATURES CULD AFFECT IA. ATTM UPR RDGE OVR
CNTRL U.S. BROKEN DWN BY SUCCESSIVE S/WS HITTING INTO THE NRN PORTION
OF RIDGE SUPRESSING THE RIDGE SWRD BRINGING SUMWHAT WNW FLO OVR THE
AREA WITH LWRING HTS AND CHC FOR PCPN EA DAY AND EVENTUAL COOLING
INTO LOWER 80S BY NXT WEEK.
.DSM...NONE
FORSTER
FXUS63 KDMX 271555 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NERN HALF OF FA AT TIME... WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SE. KLWX RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED WEAK
RETURNS OVER CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA.. BUT HAVEN'T SEEN ANY REPORTS
OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT LOBE SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TIME
SECTIONS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
18Z.. BUT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WE PASS INTO A
SUBSIDENT PATTERN BEHIND THE VORT LOBE. HAVE BROKEN UP ZONES GROUPS A
LITTLE BIT.. TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS FOR DC/BALTIMORE.
ETA/RUC BOTH SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AMS CURRENTLY QUITE STABLE WITH LI VALUES AROUND 5 OR 6...
BUT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY DE-STABILIZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND MODIFIED 12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWING WEAK CAPE AOA 600.. BUT A 1-2
DEGREE CAP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH CAP IN PLACE
AND WITH NWLY FLOW THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.. AND FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH DRY FORECAST.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ONE CAT FOR MOST ZONES. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S THIS MORNING..
AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.
.LWX...NONE.
MARGRAF!
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
FORECAST AREA AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BAND OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPILLING SE INTO UP/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY
AIRMASS OVER FA. 0Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED A MARKED DRY LAYER BELOW
700 MB...SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIP WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS SHRA WILL FIRST SPREAD INTO
UP AND NORTHERN 1/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN ARE PUSHING SE TOWARD IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
AND WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OUR PRECIP
TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO REGION FROM NW. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S/E
WILL DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESS BEFORE MORNING. 18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC
ONLY DEPICT PRECIP INTO N/NW COUNTIES OF FA BEFORE 12Z...SUGGESTING
THAT CURRENT POPS ACROSS THE S/SW ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
SUGGESTED THAT ALL MEASUREABLE PRECIP WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SOLUTION IGNORES NW/SE BAND OF PRECIP ALREADY PUSHING INTO AREA.
EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP...
LATEST MESOETA/RUC SOLUTIONS APPEAR TOO SLOW. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MBL TO HTL IN THE WEST...AND WILL ADD
POPS TO PRESQUE ISLE-APN-ALCONA GROUP. FURTHER...WILL BUMP POPS UP
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE UP AND UP TO 50 PERCENT PLN/GAYLORD VCNTY. WILL
ONLY KEEP FAR SE...GLADWIN/ARENAC GROUP...DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD INTO REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
.APX...NONE.
ROWLEY
FXUS63 KDTX 280216 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
...FIRST PERIOD FOCUS IS SVR THREAT...
SFC WARM FRONT EVIDENT ON 18Z ANALYSIS FROM LO OVR SD SE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT CLEARLY EVIDENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SHRA/TSRA ACROSS N MN. MOISTURE
GRADIENT TO WEST IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 AHEAD OF FRONT
AND MID 70S IN SW MN AND E SD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NE EARLY
TONIGHT INTO CWA...AS UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY OVR NW SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES ESE IN UPR FLOW. RUC DEPICTS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE/THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO NE MN BY 03Z ON
35KT SW LLJ. MCS DEVELOPING LIKELY IN THIS REGION WITH EXPECTED
MOVEMENT TO SE ALONG 700-300MB THICKNESS FIELD. THIS PLACES UPR MI
SQUARELY IN THREAT AREA. SPC INCLUDED W CWA IN MODERATE RISK
TONIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY REMAIN NR WI BORDER WHERE ETA CAPES CLIMB
TO 2000-2500J/KG AFTER 00Z. BELIEVE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE
S CWA WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING 500MB SHORTWAVE SE ACROSS CWA BETWEEN
15-21Z...WHILE MCS THREAT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL
QVECTOR DIV OVERSPREAD W CWA AFTER 18Z AND E CWA BY 00Z...SO GRADUAL
DRYING AND AN END TO PRECIP WILL OCCUR THEN. DRIER AIR AND QVECTOR
DIV DOMINATE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NGM/ETA DEPICT NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROF APPROACHING CWA THURSDAY MORNING. NGM DYNAMICS/PRECIP FIELDS
MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH ETA LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. ATTM WILL LEAVE
PRECIP OUT GIVEN MINIMAL FWC POPS...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS MAY BE WARRANTED
WITH NEXT MODEL RUN. THURSDAY APPEARS HOT AND DRY WITH 20-22C 850
TEMPS WARM ADVECTING INTO CWA ON WESTERLY FLOW WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
90F MUCH OF UPR MI.
EXTENDED RANGE...UPR MI REMAINS IN ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND BROAD RIDGE COVERING SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
CONUS. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING
SE THRU AK. MODELS DIG THIS FEATURE SE INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY
FRIDAY. SFC REFLECTION OF THIS UPR FEATURE EVIDENT AS SFC LO MOVING
INTO W ONTARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOC COLD FRONT CROSSING
WESTERN GREAT LKS ON SATURDAY. THIS RUN OF MRF IS NEARLY 12HRS
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE LAST. ECMWF SUPPORTS A SLOWER
SOLUTION...IMPLYING GRADUALLY INCREASING RETURN FLOW/HUMIDITY OF
FRIDAY AND CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY WITH FRONT. HAVE REMOVED
PRECIP FROM E CWA ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT SLOWER SOLN. SFC HI PRS
DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THERMAL TROF OVER
REGION. ON MONDAY...LATEST MRF DEPICTS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ASSOC WITH RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THIS IDEA INCONSISTENT WITH LAST MRF RUN...AND
NOT SUPPORTED BY ECMWF OR CANADIAN MODELS. GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY
SLOWER MRF SOLN AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
FEATURE...WILL NOT ALTER MONDAY'S DRY FCST ATTM.
.MQT...NONE.
WOLF
FXUS63 KMQT 271608 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND... SO WILL ONLY
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. ONE LINGERING PATCHE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND KENT COUNTIES... AND EASTERN
ALLEGAN COUNTY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS CONTINUING TO ERODE THIS
AREA INWARD UPON ITSELF... AND FEEL IT WILL BE GONE BY NOONTIME...
SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE ZONES. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST OF LANSING WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME FATE.
THE 12Z RUC AND THIS MORNING/S SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE
WAY OF CU THAT WAS EXPECTED... PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE 70. MAY GO WITH A
PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST IN PLACE OF MOSTLY SUNNY... BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW CU DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 12Z ETA SUPPORTS
THIS AS WELL... WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-96.
FORTUNATELY... THERE IS A BIT OF A CAP... AND THERE IS NO
SUBSTANTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE RUC SHOWS
SOME PCPN DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE WEST SIDE OF
SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS... BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
SKATE BY WITH A DRY AFTERNOON UNLESS SOMETHING MANAGES TO POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST... BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF AN ISOLATED CELL
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF I-196.
TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY... SO WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS.
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1145 AM... AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON.
.GRR...NONE
TRH
FXUS63 KAPX 271428 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
958 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR ROABS FROM SURROUNDING
SITES SHOWED A STRONG CAP OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER IA AND NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH TDA. RUC MODEL BY
00Z/28TH SHOW AIRMASS DESTABLIZE ACRS AREA WITH SFC LIFTED INDICES
MINUS 6 TO 9 WITH SBCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED A JET ACRS NORTH CNTRL MN. TSRA HAD OCCURRED ALONG THE
THETA-E RIDGE OR NOSE IN RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET.
OUR NORTHERN PTN OF CWA WL BE IN LINE FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE SMALL POP GOING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
.MSP...NONE.
JVM
FXUS63 KDLH 270843 mn
FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL
US ON MORNING ANALYSIS. EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN-MOST
SECTION OF FA ALSO IN EVIDENCE ON ANALYSIS. PRECIPITABLE H20 AMOUNTS
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS MOVED SOUTH
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF FA THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MIX
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FA...IN
BEST AREA OF RUC INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALL MODELS HAVE A DRYING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING
THIS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS
LOW. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS IS STATUS QUO...SO NO PROBLEMS
BELIEVING THIS. UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHIFTS
WEST...LEAVING NO REAL MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR INITIATION. NO
DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE AVAILABLE SHORT
TERM MODELS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THE MISS. RIVER WEDNESDAY. WITH
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES INDICATED FOR LOW LEVEL PRECIPITATION
INITIATION...WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TS/SHRA AT
MOST...SCATTERED CLOSER TO COAST SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
SPILLOVER GULF BREEZE ACTION OCCURRING. TEMPS...WITH NGM GOING NEAR
100 FOR HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND AVN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER...WILL GO WITH A BLEND SINCE FEEL THAT NGM IS A BIT TOO HIGH.
IN THE EXTENDED CRYSTAL BALL...RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED. STILL A LACK OF DEFINITIVE CONVECTION INITIATORS...SO WILL
GO A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH POPS. TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE.
QPF DISCUSSION:AGREE WITH THE MODELS THAT RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT WILL
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS WITH TIME...LIMITING CONVECTION. NCEP IS ALONG
THE SAME LINES WITH THEIR QPF...KEEPING THE ONE QUARTER INCH AREA
SHUNTED TO THE FAR SOUTH. WILL GO WITH ZERO QPF.
.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
16
ms
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
...HEAT ADVISORY REPOSTED FOR TODAY...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO
LOW 90S. BULLSEYE OF THETAE LOCATED OVR NW MO AND NEW RUC SHOWS LTL
DISSIPATION OF SFC MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. HEAT INDICES
ARE CLIMBING INTO 100 TO 105 RANGE ATTM. FCST MAXES BY RUC
FOR NWRN PART OF CWA IN THE 94-97 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPTS
FCST TO RMN ARND 70...ETA A LTL COOLER BUT DEWPTS HIER. THUS
XPCT HI TO RISE ABOVE HEAT ADVRY LVLS AGAIN TDA. WL UPDATE
NWRN ZONES TO ACCT FOR HI.
WK BNDRY RMNS ACRS SRN PTN OF CWA. QG FORCING IS WEAK...HOWEVER
ISN LIFT PROGGED TO CTN THRU THE DAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS
MOVED EAST OF CWA BUT WITH DIURNAL HTG XPCT MORE -SHRA/-TSRA
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN MOISTURE-LADEN ATMO. ETA KEEPS CAPES
IN THE 2500-4000 RANGE AND RUC PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS ALNG
BOONVILLE TO TARKIO LN THRU AFTN. WL CTN CHC POPS AS PER PRVS
FCST THRU DAY.
.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SF
FXUS63 KSGF 271537 mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...AM FOG...CHC OF PRECIP...HEAT
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BNDRY OVR NRN KS
INTO CNTRL MO...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY FM SE NEB TO SE IA. HI
DEWPOINTS...LO CLDS AND FOG WERE NOTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN
NEB AND SRN IA. MONSOONAL FLO CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE FM W TX
AND WRN KS...ACRS NRN KS INTO NRN MO.
...FORECAST...
UPR RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL U.S. RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES WITH
TIME. HTS RMN HI OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE PD...WITH NW FLOW
FM THE DAKOTAS AND ERN NEB E THRU THE GRTLKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
SNDINGS FM 00Z REVEALED THAT THE PW AT OAX HAD DROPPED TO 1.58
INCHES...DOWN FM 2.00 INCHES AT 12Z. TOP/S SNDING STILL HAD 1.83
INCHES PW. LBF HAD AN INTERESTING SNDING WITH A DEWPOINT AROUND 760
MB OF 15 DEG C.
THE ETA SHOWS AN INCREASE IN H70 AND H85 RH BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...THEN
SUPPRESSES THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACRS KS AND MO THRU WED. AT H85
SOME RETURN NOTED BY 00Z OVR CNTRL NEB. THE AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS ARE
SIMILAR...BUT NGM IS A BIT MORE MOIST AT H85 ALL OF FORECAST AREA
TODAY. ETA SOLUTION APPEARS RNSBL.
WITH HI DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SFC WNDS WILL MENTION AM FOG IN ALL BUT
NRN ZONE. IR AND 3.9 MICRON STLT SHOWING CLDS SKIRTING SRN NEB
WHERE HIGHER RH IF FCST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH UVV/WAA/QVECTOR
CONV. ETA FCST SNDINGS HAVE A CAPE OF AROUND 4400 J/KG FOR 12Z AT
FNB. WILL BRK OFF SRN ZONES AND INCLUDES POPS...WITH BEST CHC ERLY
THIS AM.
THE RUC HAS PICKED UP ON A SHRTWV THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE H50
PROFILERS...BUT IS NOT REFLECTED IN ANY CLDS PER STLT. THE RUC DOES
GENERATE PRECIP FARTHER N WITH THIS FEATURE. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE NW
FLO DIFFICULT TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ISO/20% TSRA. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HOT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK WITH FRONT APPROACHING
AND LWRING HTS LATE FRI.
.OMA...NONE
ZAPOTOCNY
ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TODAY CONCERNS S/WV WHICH IS ENTERING NW NC
THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC...AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE
IN WV IMAGERY...BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. PER AREA
SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. 3 DEGREE CAP ALSO EXISTS BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING FROM S/WV. THINK TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. DUE TO TIMING...
MAY HAVE TO CARRY OVER AN ISOLATED TSTM INTO THE EVENING.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF ANY AFTN
CONVECTION. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX ALREADY APPROACHING 100 AT 10 AM SO
WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY UP FOR ENTIRE CWA.
CWF: SFC TROF IS ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST AT 13Z. WINDS AT THE BUOYS
AND AT COASTAL SITES ARE WNW BUT SHOULD SHIFT SW LATE THIS AFTN AS
TROF MOVES WWD. WILL LOWER SPEEDS N OF CAPE FEAR...MORE IN LINE WITH
SC WATERS.
.ILM...HEAT ADV FOR ENTIRE CWA.
MORGAN
FXUS62 KMHX 271343 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY. SAT IMAG THIS AM SHOWS
NICE AREA OF SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE CSTL
PLAIN W TO WRN VA. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH BRING POCKETS OF WEAK H5
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS
AM WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW
THRU NE. AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MOVES INTO WRN NC LATER TODAY
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ALLOWING WINDS
TO GRADUALLY BECMG SW LATE TDY AND INTO TNT. WITH PC TO OCCASIONALLY
BKN CLOUD COVER TDY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH THE NLY FLOW...HEAT
INDICES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE 105 MARK THOUGH
THAT IS STILL RATHER HOT. DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN IMPULSE WILL BE
MOVING OVR THE REGION TDY...WITH LACK OF MSTR ALOFT WE WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE ISOLD SHRA SO WILL CONT TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF FCST.
CSTL FCST ALSO ON TRACK...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.
.MHX...NONE.
ORROCK
FXUS62 KRAH 271336 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
CURRENT FCST BASED ON WEAK S/W AND ITS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING EAST
OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING THE RETURN OF OUR EVER PRESENT
HOT WEATHER. LATEST SAT PICS AND RUC VALIDATE THIS PREMISE.
THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE TO MID SHIFT WORK ANTICIPATED.
.RAH...NONE.
GL
nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 1999
FCST CHALLENGE: SVR THREAT IN NW FLOW REGIME...TNGT AND TMRW NGT.
MODEL SELECTION: ETA INCOMPLETE. NGM/ETA FAIR ON UPR FEATURES AND
INITIALIZING WELL ON WEAK VORT IN SERN SASK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...12Z RUC WAS BETTER. WILL USE NGM
PRIMARILY.
NEAR TERM: MODELS WEAK ON HANDLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SURGE AHEAD
OF SFC TROF...NOW ENTERING ERN ND. 18Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE
VALUES AROUND 4K WHILE ETA HAS AXIS OF 3-4K BAND BACK IN CNTRL SD.
SFC DEWPTS APCHG 70 IN SERN ND WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR JMS. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOW GOOD VEERING BLO H7. H5 ANALYSIS HAD
SEMBLANCE OF WEAK COUPLED JET OVR FGF CWFA BETWEEN NRN AND SRN
BRANCH FLOW. 50KTS AT H5 GENERALLY SUPPORTING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WILL COORD WITH SPC ON LATE AFTERNOON SVR TSTM WATCH AREA. FAN TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEWPTS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT.
MID TERM: PATTERN REPEATS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO ERN ND AT MAX HEATING AND WK UPR WAVE IN NW FLOW
PATTERN. WILL STICK WITH WDLY SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ND ZONES. PM TSTMS
IN MN ZONES.
EXTENDED: LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER MT AND WRN ND AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM
CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES AREA. ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA.
CWFA THEN REMAINS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR REST OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF CWFA ON COLD SIDE OF
RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD AROUND NORMALS.
.FGF...TOR WATCH #591 UNTIL 7PM CDT...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN.
GUST/GODON
FXUS63 KFGF 271533 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
FCST CHALLENGE: WHERE WILL CONVECTION FIRE THIS AFTERNOON?
WILL UPDATE PACKAGE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST ZONES
EXCEPT NW MN WHERE CLD COVER IS SLOWING HEATING CURVE A BIT. TEMPS
AND DEWPTS ARE SURGING NICELY ALG A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO ERN ND
AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN WRN ND. OTHERWISE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD ON
TREATMENT OF TSTM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. 12Z
RUC VERIFYING WELL AGAINST MSAS LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICATORS...AND
HAS SFC TROUGH AND THETAE RIDGE ALG NRN RRV THROUGH SERN ND AT 00Z
TO PROVIDE GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. AM SUSPECT THAT
ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING AND ADDN MID LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY
NEW FOUS DATA COULD WEAKEN CAP STRENGTH OVER NERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE FOR EARLIER CONVECTION KICK. WILL STICK WITH
CURRENT PACKAGE TIMING AND MOINTOR SITUATION CLOSELY.
.FGF...NONE.
GUST
FXUS63 KFGF 271044 AMD nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...I GUESS
WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. SFC HI PRES PROGGED TO PASS E OF FCST
AREA WED MORN SO BACK INTO THE SW FLOW SO WILL ADD THOSE FEW DEGREES
BACK. WL BE ABLE TO GO WITH A LIGHT WIND OVNGT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS
FM WNW TO LIGHT SW. WL CHANGE P CLOUDY OVNGT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND LOWER
MIN FCST INLAND NW PA WHERE DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND 60 ALREADY. LARGE
MCS OVR MN THIS EVENING AND IT SEEMS A LITTLE AHEAD OF MODEL FCSTS.
RUC SEEMS MOST NEAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING. ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER AND
REGENRATE SE TNGT AND THEN AGN WED OVR WI. LOW LVL TEMP/DEWPOINT AND
STABILITY GRADIENTS WOULD SUGGEST A PATH SSE ACRS MIDWEST AND LWR OH
VLY...MAINLY ACRS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...WEST OF FCST AREA. ASSCD
S/WV WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE OVR ENTIRE LWR GRTLKS LATE
WED AFTRN AND NGT SO A BIT OF CONVECTION CUD DVLP UNLESS MCS TO OUR
WEST GENERATES ENUF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE TO SQUASH ACTIVITY. WL
CONT WITH CURRENT FCST OF CHC TSTORMS LATER WED NW OHIO AND THEN ALL
OF N OH/NW PA WED NGT. WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH 30 POPS WED
NGT INSTEAD OF 40/50 POP NOW IN FCST BUT WILL NOT CHANGE 3RD PERIOD
OF FCST WITH NO NEW MODEL DATA. NO OTHER CHANGES. OZFCLE AVBL.
.CLE...NONE.
KOSARIK
...UPDATED TO INCLUDE CHANGES TO OVNGT FCST.
FXUS61 KCLE 280111 oh
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
TEMPERATURES
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION?
SHORT TERM: DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AR HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
W TOWARDS ERN CWA...BEING ASSISTED BY WEAK ERLY WAVE. 18Z RUC TRIES
TO BRING PCPN INTO NW AR THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAK WAVE AND DECENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD
LOOKS OVERDONE. ISOLATED POPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN FCST FOR NW AR FOR
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CLOSE TO ISSUANCE TO
DECIDE. HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH WED FOR TUL METRO.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MEET CRITERIA
IN THE IMMEDIATE TUL AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ADVISORY.
HEAT ADV WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM FOR REMAINDER OF CWA AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL NOT BE ABV 80F. DAYTIME HEAT INDICES HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS OVER REMAINDER OF CWA.
LONG TERM: AFTER TONIGHT...BEST FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HOT AND DRY.
ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE OVHD LACK
OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ALL ZONES DRY
THROUGH SAT. TEMPS WILL BE HOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GOING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. MAY BE FLIRTING WITH
HEAT ADV CRITERIA OVER MORE OF THE AREA WED AND THU...BUT WILL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS ATTM. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REFLECT MOS/FAN VALUES
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
EXTENDED: MRF TRIES TO FLATTEN RIDGE BRING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SRN
PLAINS BY SAT. IT ALSO BRINGS CDFNT DOWN INTO KS AND CLOSE TO OK
BORDER LATE SAT AND SUN...SO WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHC SUN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...SRN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS FURTHER S.
MANNING
FCSTID = 24
TUL 81 102 81 103 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 5
MLC 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 5
BVO 75 103 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 96 72 96 / 0 0 0 5
BYV 71 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 5
MIO 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 5
F10 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 5
HHW 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 5
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.
--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 9 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FXUS64 KOUN 271932 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A VORT MAX S OF TXK EMBEDDED IN SRN END OF AN
ERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH AR THIS AM. THESE FEATURES ALSO SHOW UP
NICELY IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS BUT NOT WELL RESOLVED BY THE MODELS.
THIS VORT MAX/WAVE COMBINATION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA ACROSS ERN AND SRN SECTIONS
OF CWFA THIS AFTN.
HAVE ONLY UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREV FCST. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW LOCATIONS IN NW AR HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THIS PM. WILL LEAVE TEMP FCST MOSTLY AS IS.
OK MESONET SHOWS ALL LOCATIONS IN CWFA FELL BELOW 80 DEGREES THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUL AT 81 DEGREES. KRVS ON S SIDE
OF TOWN FELL TO LOW 70S. FEEL THAT THIS IS LOCALIZED TO THE
IMMEDIATE TUL METRO...SO WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE HEAT ADV ATTM. WILL
REISSUE DANGEROUS HEAT SPS LATER THIS AM.
MANNING
FCSTID = 24
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
FXUS64 KTSA 270912 ok
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
408 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
TEMPERATURES
BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 315K
HAVE MADE IT INTO NW ZONES WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN OSAGE COUNTY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING SE THRU E KS AND INTO MO. OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE
IS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...BEST DEPICTED
IN 200 MB WIND FIELD/DIVERGENCE BY 03Z ETA. ETA HITS PRECIP
HARD WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING PRECIP FROM N LA NORTHWARD
THRU E ZONES AND MERGES WITH KS PRECIP. RUC ALSO SHOWS
SOME PRECIP IN NE ZONES THIS MORNING. ETA LIKELY OVERDOING
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH MAIN LIFT ABOVE 500 MB MAINLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SW ZONES HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT SEEING
PRECIP...BUT AFTERNOON HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHEST THERE
BRINGING THREAT FOR A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
SPREAD 10-20% POPS AREAWIDE TODAY. MID/HI CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP MAXES A DEG OR TWO BELOW YESTERDAY.
ETA'S 21Z SFC TEMPS IN 80S SURE LOOK NICE BUT DON'T THINK
WE WILL BE THAT LUCKY.
REST OF FCST WILL BE LEFT DRY AND HOT...BUT MRF SHOWS SERIES OF
WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM FLATTENING RIDGE FROM SUNDAY THRU
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING AND CHC FOR PRECIP.
GUID TEMPS IN LATER PERIODS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. DAYTIME HEAT
INDICIES WILL BE IN DANGER CATEGORY BUT WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
EXPECTED IN 70S WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRIT. WILL REISSUE
HEAT DANGER SPS.
FCSTID = 13
TUL 98 79 99 75 / 5 10 10 0
FSM 96 74 98 75 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 98 75 98 75 / 5 10 10 0
BVO 98 76 98 75 / 10 0 10 0
FYV 95 73 96 75 / 20 10 10 0
BYV 95 73 96 75 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 95 76 97 75 / 20 10 10 0
MKO 98 79 99 75 / 5 10 10 0
F10 98 79 99 75 / 5 10 10 0
HHW 98 75 98 75 / 5 10 10 0
.TUL...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.
--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: NONE
NGM CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE: 5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FXUS64 KOUN 270857 ok
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999
MODELS LATE.
00Z SLE SOUNDING UNSTABLE ABOVE 700 MB BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTION. A WEAK BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON PERIPHERY OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING N THROUGH W OREGON THIS EVENING HAS A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST...AMENDING IF NEEDED. OFFSHORE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVING W OF 130W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE IN NEAR TERM. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WED IN CASCADES AS RUC IMPLIES SOME INTERIOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO AREA.
COASTAL MARINE CLOUDS VERY PERSISTENT TODAY WITH KOTH REPORTING 1600
FT TOPS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS A BIT STRONGER THAN MON AND MAY SEE A
LITTLE EARLY MORNING INTRUSION INTO INTERIOR VALLEY. 12Z MODELS
IMPLIED STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THU MORNING AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
BRUSHES NW WA...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THU MORNING BUT
HAVE SOME DOUBTS. WILLIS
AST --1 PDX 000 SLE 000 EUG 000
.PDX...NONE.
FXUS66 KMFR 280354 or
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVY CODE FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
WK SFC TROF WAS NOTED ON PRES ANAL THIS EVE FM NE GA THRU THE
MIDLANDS OF SC...TO AROUND THE N CST OF SC. A LEFTOVER BUT POORLY
DEFINED S/WV IS CURRENTLY MOVG THRU THE CAROLINAS BUT CONVECTION IS
WEAKENING QUICKLY THIS EVE AS SUN SETS. GOOD THETA-E ALG CST...BUT
NOT MUCH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE MID 90S
THIS AFT...BLV AS TEMPS COOL THRU THE EVE...PCPN WL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE. MAY LEAVE A 20 POP IN TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR BERKELEY...
DORCHESTER AND NRN COLLETON CTYS...BUY WL DECIDE B4 ISSUANCE BASED ON
LTST RADAR. IR SATLT SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLDS TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA OVN...WL GO WITH P/CLOUDY WORDING. TEMPS/WIND
LOOK FINE.
CWF...MAINLY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION INITIALIZATION
AS FLOW IS MAINLY SW ON LATEST MARINE OBS. SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT 15 KT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RUC 21Z PROG...WILL LIKELY GO
WITH SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 15 KT.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
TJR/RVT
FXUS62 KCHS 280047 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES CROSSING REGION.
IMPULSE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING S AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND
W ATLANTIC TROF DIGS. RUC SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO ADVECT AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO REGION
...AND AIR MASS TO CONTINUE DESTABILIZING. WILL PUT POPS IN ENTIRE
AREA FOR WHOLE PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS MOST FAVORED
TIMING...CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT OR MORNING CONVECTION AS
SYSTEMS ARRIVE FROM OH VALLEY. MAX TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AS
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL PARTIALLY OFFSET DONWSLOPE COMPONENT. MINIMUMS
TO MOVE UPWARD AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
AVL 65/89/66/88 6555
CLT 70/94/71/93 4444
GSP 71/95/71/94 5444
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KGSP 271735 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ON A MORE S TRACK TOWARD SC UPSTATE
AND NEW CELLS DEVELOPING LAURENS CO. RUC SHOWS INCREASED MOISTURE
CONVEERGENCE BETWEEN TN LINE AND I-85. WILL UPDATE TO CAPTURE
TRENDS.
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KCAE 271710 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
GSO SOUNDING UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH CAPE AROUND 3000 AND PW
1.48. RUC SHOWS AREA IN WAKE OF MAIN IMPULSE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MINOR IMPULSE REACHING MOUNTAINS LATE THSI AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN IMPULSE IN N TIER
NC...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD JUST BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME
AS MOISTURE SPOOLS AROUND UPPER RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN
MOUNATAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE
TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR MAXIMUMS WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY IN
OH VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS APPEAR IN ORDER. GUSTY
WINDS MIXED DOWN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SIMILAR HEATING
AND LWO LEVEL WINDS...WILL BOOST SURFACE VELOCITIES A BIT.
UPDATE: ALTHOUGH CONVECTION DECELERATING RAPIDLY OFF BLUE RIDGE...
IT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO NC PIEDMONT. WILL EXPAND POP W
TOWARD I-77 CORRIDOR.
.GSP...NONE.
JAT
FXUS62 KCAE 271430 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
RUC SHOWING WK S/WV JUST BRUSHING THE NRN SXNS AND WL GO WITH PC SKIES
THERE AND CONT MS ELSEWHERE. ATTM WL NOT PUT PCPN IN THE NRN SXNS AS ETA
CLT SNDNG HAS CAP AND IF PCPN DVLPS WL UPDATE. OTRW NO CHGS TO CUR FCST
AS TEMPS TO CONT NEAR 100 WITH HEAT ADVISORY.
.CAE...HEAT ADVY TDA SCZ015>016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
CDL
FXUS62 KCHS 271418 sc
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
743 PM CDT MON JUL 26 1999
SHOWERS NEARLY SPENT AS OF TYPING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN
THE ISSUING OF EVENING PACKAGES...IE REMOVE POPS INLAND...REWORD
POPS ON THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FROM LATEST RUC
/NGM THAT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY. VERY
WEAK DIFFLUENCE AS TUTT GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GULF ALONG WITH A
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WELL. PW FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
ALMOST 2" PER RUC2 AT 18Z...ETA DRIER BUT 12Z RUNS RECENTLY HAVE NOT
BEEN VERIFYING AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUNS WHEN IT COMES TO PW. HEAT
INDICIES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 103 TO 109 RANGE FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL WATERS REMAINING TRANQUIL WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
.HGX...NONE.
<45.37.BT>
PRELIMS...
CLL BB 074/098 074/098 074 022
IAH BB 074/097 074/097 074 -22
GLS BB 080/090 080/090 080 232
FXUS64 KFWD 272208 AMD tx
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
LATEST RUC AND MESOETA SHOW LARGE AREA OF NVA OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
TO SQUANDER ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS
EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE LI. QUITE A BIT OF CU VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
LOOP ALREADY SO MAY DECIDE TO INPUT SOME WORDING OF PARTLY CLOUDY.
WITH THE 26 KNOTS FOUND IN THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET OVER BRO THIS
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE SCEC FOR THE BAY. LATEST MODELS SHOW 10 TO
15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND THIS GOES IN LINE WITH CURRENT 42020 READINGS
OFFSHORE. WILL DROP SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND TWEEK WINDS
DOWN A BIT.
63
.BRO...NONE.
FXUS64 KHGX 271417 tx
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST WED JUL 28 1999
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. AN UPSWING IN STORM
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.
.DISCUSSION...
KIWA RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT THUNDERSHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...KYUX
RADAR SHOWING MORE ISOLATED BUT STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA MOVING SOUTHWARD. IR IMAGERY
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING CURRENT EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH UPSTREAM NEAR
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING CHANGE TOWARD EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
24 HOURS BEFORE. MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED IN SPEED THEREBY
AIDING IN THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE THERE DON'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM
24 HOURS BEFORE...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE DYNAMICAL INFLUENCE OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. 00Z PLOT DATA SHOWING AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE OVER
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...BOTH OF THESE
AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT 2 AM. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE A NEW HIGH CELL DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.
AS FAR AS THE PROGS GO...NOT MUCH TO SAY DUE TO NCEP COMPUTER
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY 00Z RUNS THAT MADE IT ARE THE RUC AND NGM. NO MRF
EITHER. NGM SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMA OF VARYING STRENGTHS CENTERED NEAR
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER ALL THE WAY THROUGH ITS RUN. THIS PROBABLY
DUE TO AN INABILITY TO RESOLVE DISTINCT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT ALSO HINTS AT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON
THURSDAY. 850 AND 700 MB DEW POINTS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO HIGH.
IT FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN 700 MB DEW POINTS FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO
TWEAK THE WORDING AND POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES.
JAMISON
FXUS65 KTWC 280918 az
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 AM MDT WED JUL 28 1999
OF THE OOZ MODELS AVAILABLE TONIGHT...THE NGM IS THE OBVIOUS MODEL
MODEL OF CHOICE...I.E. ITS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE. IT CONTINUES THE
TREND IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS OF CONTINUING MONSOON FLOW INTO COLORODO
FROM A PLUME THAT WILL MOVE TO W/C AZ TODAY THEN CURVE BACK OVER SRN
UT AND WRN CO. MINOR VORT MAXES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
THIS MORNING...ONLY RESOLVED BY RUC BUT POSITIONED POORLY. WV
SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF DRIER AIR FLOWING FROM THE EAST INTO MONSOON
PLUME AND SPREADING SLOWLY W AND N. NGM SHOWS THIS A LOWER PW VALUES
THIS MORNING THAT QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO .90 IN THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERSISTENCE FCST THRU THURSDAY: SCTD TSTMS IN THE
VALLEY...NUMEROUS MOST MTNS...WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO START FIRST IN CLEARER AREAS. NO SGFNT CHANGES SEEN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CUOCO
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A HIGHER LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO
LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
.GJT...NONE.
FXUS65 KPUB 280911 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO
FORECAST AREA AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BAND OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPILLING SE INTO UP/NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY
AIRMASS OVER FA. 0Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED A MARKED DRY LAYER BELOW
700 MB...SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIP WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE ALOFT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS SHRA WILL FIRST SPREAD INTO
UP AND NORTHERN 1/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN ARE PUSHING SE TOWARD IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
AND WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OUR PRECIP
TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO REGION FROM NW. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S/E
WILL DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESS BEFORE MORNING. 18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC
ONLY DEPICT PRECIP INTO N/NW COUNTIES OF FA BEFORE 12Z...SUGGESTING
THAT CURRENT POPS ACROSS THE S/SW ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF
SUGGESTED THAT ALL MEASUREABLE PRECIP WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
SOLUTION IGNORES NW/SE BAND OF PRECIP ALREADY PUSHING INTO AREA.
EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP...
LATEST MESOETA/RUC SOLUTIONS APPEAR TOO SLOW. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MBL TO HTL IN THE WEST...AND WILL ADD
POPS TO PRESQUE ISLE-APN-ALCONA GROUP. FURTHER...WILL BUMP POPS UP
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE UP AND UP TO 50 PERCENT PLN/GAYLORD VCNTY. WILL
ONLY KEEP FAR SE...GLADWIN/ARENAC GROUP...DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD INTO REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z.
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
.APX...NONE.
ROWLEY
FXUS63 KDTX 280216 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
...FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE MINIMAL THREAT OF PCPN AND AFTN HIGH
TEMPS THRU FCST PD...
0700 UTC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED VRY WK PRES GRAD OVR WRN AND N CNTRL
NEB WITH NO DISCERNABLE SFC FEATURES OTHER THAN WK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BCMG DIFFUSE NR VTN AND SFC TROF OVR SRN SD. UPR RDG RMNS JUST TO S OF
AREA...WITH LTL MVMNT EXPECTED TIL LTE THU WHEN RDG FCST TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AND SHFT SLGTLY TWD SW.
DESPITE HIGH CAPES AND LOW CIN DURG PK HTG CYCLE...LTL TO FOCUS
CONVECT ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO THU AFTN WITH SFC FNT WELL TO N OF LBF
CWA. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVR N CNTRL NEB VRY SHLW AND SHD DISSIPATE
BY THIS AFTN. ONLY CONCERN WUD THEREFORE BE WEAKNESS IN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE IN VCNTY OF UPR RDG WHERE SCT +TSRA HAS DVLPD PST COUPLE OF
DAYS OVR WRN KS INTO E CNTRL CO. BOTH NGM AND RUC PICKING UP ON WK
VORT MAX SCOOTING ARND PERIPHERY OF UPR RDG...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD
INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN...AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU. SCT
CONVECTION STILL IN PROGRESS WITH THIS FEATURE NW OF GLD.
THREAT HI ENF TO INTRODUCE MINIMAL THREAT OF TSRA IN SWRN NEB TDA...AND
KP RMNDR OF FCST AREA DRY ASSUMING THAT ANY OTHER PCPN WL BE ISOLD AT
BEST. WL MAINTAIN DRY FCST...EVN IN SWRN NEB...FOR THU CONSIDERING
UNCERTAINTY OF IMPACT OF WK SHRT WV AND LACK OF ADTNL GUIDANCE TO HELP
BTR DEFINE LTE PD THREAT.
AFTN TEMPS TDA SHD BE SLGTLY HIR THAN THOSE OF YSTDY WITH FEWER ERY
MRNG CLDS AND FOG TO OFFSET ERY INSOLATION...AND WITH LESS UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO SFC WND. TEMPS ON THU SHD BE SIM TO THOSE OF TDA...AND WL
GO SLGTLY ABV FWC GUID WHICH MAY BE OVERESTIMATING RETREAT OF UPR RDG
AND REFLECTING THIS IN COOLER AFTN HIGHS IN 3RD PD.
.LBF...NONE.
WERT
FXUS63 KGID 280732 ne
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 1999
FCST CHALLENGE: SVR THREAT IN NW FLOW REGIME...TNGT AND TMRW NGT.
MODEL SELECTION: ETA INCOMPLETE. NGM/ETA FAIR ON UPR FEATURES AND
INITIALIZING WELL ON WEAK VORT IN SERN SASK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...12Z RUC WAS BETTER. WILL USE NGM
PRIMARILY.
NEAR TERM: MODELS WEAK ON HANDLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SURGE AHEAD
OF SFC TROF...NOW ENTERING ERN ND. 18Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE
VALUES AROUND 4K WHILE ETA HAS AXIS OF 3-4K BAND BACK IN CNTRL SD.
SFC DEWPTS APCHG 70 IN SERN ND WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR JMS. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOW GOOD VEERING BLO H7. H5 ANALYSIS HAD
SEMBLANCE OF WEAK COUPLED JET OVR FGF CWFA BETWEEN NRN AND SRN
BRANCH FLOW. 50KTS AT H5 GENERALLY SUPPORTING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
WILL COORD WITH SPC ON LATE AFTERNOON SVR TSTM WATCH AREA. FAN TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEWPTS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT.
MID TERM: PATTERN REPEATS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO ERN ND AT MAX HEATING AND WK UPR WAVE IN NW FLOW
PATTERN. WILL STICK WITH WDLY SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ND ZONES. PM TSTMS
IN MN ZONES.
EXTENDED: LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER MT AND WRN ND AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM
CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES AREA. ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA.
CWFA THEN REMAINS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR REST OF EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF CWFA ON COLD SIDE OF
RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD AROUND NORMALS.
.FGF...TOR WATCH #591 UNTIL 7PM CDT...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN.
GUST/GODON
FXUS63 KFGF 271533 nd
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT...THE PATTERN MARCHES ON. WE HAD QUITE A
BIT OF MORNING CLOUDS TUESDAY...AND STILL MANAGED 90 OR ABOVE IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER PRETTY HOT DAY SHUD BE ON TAP WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS TO MAR HEATING UNTIL LATER TODAY.
GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO TRICKLE IN BUT STAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE SET FOR
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
CLUE WHERE THE PRECIP IS FALLING AT THE MOMENT. THE RUC AND NGM SEEM
TO HAVE "BEST" HANDLE ON UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION. RUC HAS SOME IDEA
THAT MCS IS FIRING OVER IL...BUT HAS HUGE AREA OF LIGHT QPF ASSOC.
OTHER ERRORS IN PLACEMENT ABOUND. SO WITH THAT IN MIND...ENSUING
DEVELOPMENTS WILL POSE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NGM/ETA SHOW SHORTWAVE NEARING REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OLD MESO ETA AND 12Z ETA BOTH HINT AT WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT
CUD BE BOW ECHO FEATURE RACING SE ACROSS THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY
VIRILE LOOKING JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
00-06Z. 12Z ETA AND MESO ETA GENERATE IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOC WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A FORM OF A COUPLED UPPER JET STREAK.
HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE PAIRED UP JETS OR IF MODELS ARE
JUST MUDDYING UP THE EXIT OF THE POTENT MIDWEST JET STREAK DUE TO
CONVECTION. EITHER WAY THE DYNAMICS FOR MID SUMMER LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
WIND FIELDS WILL EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE SHUD ANY KIND OF SQUALL LINE
FORM.
SHUD HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY EASY TIME OF KICKING THE STUFFING OUT OF
MOS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ TODAY. HOT AND DUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WHICH
HAS BEEN MISLEADING MOS BY AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEG AT HARRISBURG FOR
ABOUT A WEEK NOW. IN FACT WE ARE ON TAP TO END UP WITH THE HOTTEST
JULY ON RECORD AT MDT...UNLESS ICE AGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH.
.CTP...NONE.
LA CORTE
FXUS61 KPBZ 280626 pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
NO RECENT RUC OR ETA TO LOOK AT TONIGHT...SO FORECAST IS BASED ON
OBSERVED DATA AND NGM PROG. WV LOOP SHOWS WELL THE VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES LINED UP IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
TO THE SOTUHEAST. THESE WILL BE THE MAIN TROUBLE MAKERS THE NEXT 48
HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE SKY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA IS VOID OF MID/UPR LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. SO...TEMPS WILL
GET OFF TO A RAPID START THIS MORNING.
WE HAD CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ELSEHWERE. THIS HAPPENED
WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAN WE HAVE FOR TODAY. 00Z UPR AIR
CHARTS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK THERMAL TROUGHS IN THE MID-LEVELS HEADED
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION. NGM SHOWS THESE WEAK THRRMAL
TROUGHS CONCURRENT WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION TO AFFECT THE REGION
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN. DECENT 850
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. WILL UP POPS TO CATERGORICAL IN MTNS TODAY AND LIKELY
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...WILL TAPER POPS FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHC
SOUTHWEST. CHC POPS TONIGHT EVERYWHERE. SINCE IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH
TO SET CONVECTION OFF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIED OF NC...WHERE
COOLEST MID-LEVELS WILL BE.
ALTHOUGH THE 850 MOIST ADVECTION PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...A
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR SURGES
IN AT MID-LEVELS...WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS. HOWEVER...AT THIS
POINT...WITH LACK OF MODEL DATA TO LOOK AT...WILL DEFER ANY CHANGES
TO POPS OUTSIDE OF MTNS THURSDAY TO LATER SHIFTS.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AS 850 THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THRUSDAY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING QUICKER DURING THE
DAY...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BUT WILL HEADLINE PIEDMONT ZONES WITH A NEAR CRITERIA STATEMENT.
AVL 89/67/89 846
CLT 95/72/96 644
GSP 96/73/97 644
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCAE 280614 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999
WL PULL OUT MENTN OF SVR FOR TNT AS RUC SHWS JET DIVERGENCE AREA OF JET
TO REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF AREA. WL CONT CHC FOR TNT WITH BETTER POPS ACRS
THE NORTH SINCE DLH RADAR SHOWG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE ARROWHEAD RGN.
THERE IS A SOUTHWEST MOVEMTN AND MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF NC AND NE WI
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO WEAK H8 WAA WAA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SFC DPTS. ANALYSIS OF SFC SHWS A WEAK TROF OVER MN WITH A SUBTLE WARM
FRONT OVER NW WI. AIR MASS STRUGGLING TO SAT OVER WI..BUT IS SAT NORTH
OF WI IN COOLER H7 AIR. WV LOOP SHOWS DRY INTRUSION NOW INTO C WI AND
WL CONT TO MOVE TWD EC WI OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER REASON FOR KEEPING SMALL
CHC IN ZONES IS THAT THE 00Z RUC RUN STILL DRAGS A VORT INTO NRN WI
LATER TNT. WV DOES SHOW A PSBL WEAK VORT OVER ND...BUT DOES NOT SIG AT
THIS TIME. MODEL DATA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS UPDATE DUE TO COMPUTER
PROBLEMS.
.GRB...NONE.
HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB
FXUS63 KGRB 280222 wi
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
COAST...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS HUMIDITY
INCREASES...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST.
SAT LOOPS AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE MTNS OF SAN
DIEGO CNTY. KNKX RAOB HAS NOT SHOWN ANY 12 HR INCREASE IN PW AND
EASTERLY FLOW IS ANEMIC AT BEST. FARTHER EAST...K1Y7 SHOWS PW AT
1.85 AND AN LI OF -10.3. HERE ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW IS ALMOST
NONEXISTENT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING TO THE
LOWER DESERTS BUT HAVE INCREASED TO THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS A FEW WEAK STORMS OVER WESTERN AZ ON THE DECREASE.
NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN LATE. ETA ALMOST IN A AND SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE. MSO ETA NEVER POSTED LAST NIGHT. 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN AZ MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT STILL EAST OF YUMA BY
00Z. RH ACTUALLY DECREASES OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND BECOMES
MORE CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO AROUND 2.5K FT OVER SAN CNTY...LOWERING TO
AROUND 2K FEET OVER ORANGE CNTY. PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED.
BASED ON PIREPS/OBS LOOKS LIKE STRATUS LAYER IS ABOUT 1K FT THICK
AND WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO CNTY.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK BUT WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD WINDS TO THE UPPER
DESERTS AND TO BROAD-BRUSH SHOWER/TS CHANCES SINCE WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SOME ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
SAN 000
.SAN...NONE.
JAD
FXUS66 KLOX 281556 ca
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
849 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999
A FRESH PUSH OF MARINE AIR ENTERED THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH KOAK
12Z SOUNDING SHOWING A DEPTH NEAR 2500 FEET. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR MAXS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRISK BUT
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AND THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
EVENING.
PERSISTENT BANDS OF ALTOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF AC MOVING NORTH
WITHIN THE VALLEY FROM JUST WEST OF MERCED TO CHICO. LIKE YESTERDAY THIS
HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT OVER MOST MAJOR CITIES. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCING IN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW NEAR
132W. AT THIS TIME OUR CWA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING INLAND AS FLOW BEGINS TO VEER. THEREFORE CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SUN THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD LESS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY CONVECTION TODAY...AND IT APPEARS THRU FRIDAY...WOULD BE
CONFINED TO EAST OF OUR AREA NEAR MONO LAKE SOUTHWARD AT BEST WHERE
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.
IN THE EXTENDED 00Z 28TH MRF IS TRENDING TOWARDS OLDER ECWMF AND SHOWS
LESS RETROGRADING OF 4 CORNERS HIGH WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPS
AND NO CONVECTION FOR OUR CWA.
.STO...NONE.
TARDY
FXUS66 KEKA 281549 ca
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE. APPEARS FROM SATELLITE AND RUC THAT MAY NEED
HIGHER POPS EXTREME NORTH DUE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATE FROM
OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK VORT TO
MOVE OVER N GA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. <20% SOUTH.
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK OK.
.ATL...HEAT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND SOUTH TODAY.
FXUS72 KFFC 280710 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1000 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
SOME AC/ACCAS ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF FA AT TIME.. WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES CENTRAL AND EAST. CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM.. WITH SCT
STORMS NOW ON KPBZ RADAR MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL OH.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER FA WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES.
00Z NGM SHOWING MAIN VORT CENTER WELL UPSTREAM.. WITH NO EFFECTS UNTIL
THIS EVENING. 09Z RUC SHOWING WEAK IMPULSES IN NW FLOW... BUT THESE MAY
BE A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TEMPS AOA 95 TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
FROM 65 TO 70 PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AMS.. WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR LATE DAY
STORMS IN FORECAST.. THINKING THAT ANY LITTLE RIPPLE OR BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS TO THE NW WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. CHANCE POPS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW STILL IN ORDER.. LOOKING AT TRACK OF SHORT WAVE
AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.
CURRENT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN READING AT SAME TIME
YESTERDAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID 90S.. BUT WITH DRY GROUND AND FULL
SUN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTN WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PLACES
GETTING UP TO 98 OR 99.
.LWX...NONE.
MARGRAF!
FXUS61 KLWX 280647 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
MOST OF MICH IS STILL RATHER STABLE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS DEW POINTS RISE OVER FA FROM APPROACHING
WARM FRONT...IN COMBINATION TO AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG OVER SW MI/IN WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO MUCH OF W MICH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL AS A TWO
VORTS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO WI THEN EFFECTING
FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RUC PICKS UP ON THIS VORT ACTIVITY RATHER
NICELY SUGGESTING AN ARRIVAL TIME AFTER 19Z FOR W MI. THIS CAN ONLY
HELP TS DEVELOPMENT....INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ONLY CHANGED THUNDERSTORM WORDING JUST A
BIT.
MCINERNEY
.GRR...NONE.
FXUS63 KAPX 281546 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
RUC INDICATING A WEAK SHRTWV WILL TRAVERS THE FA THIS AFTN. LATEST
SFC ANLYS SHOWING A STATIONARY FNT OVR SRN WI AND LOWER MI. AS PER
CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
STABLE THRU THE AFTN OVR FA...AS CAPE VALUES OVR MQT WILL FALL FM
1500 J/KG TO 170 J/KG BY 18Z. GOES DERIVED CAPE VALUES SEEM TO
VERIFY THIS ALSO AS THE 13Z READING WERE 200-600J/KG. THE LI'S AT
IWD WILL CHG FM -8 AT 12Z TO -1 BY 18Z. LATEST ISENTROPIC ANLYS
SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE OVR UP BECMG MORE STABLE AND EVEN SOME
SUBSIDENCE BY MID AFTN. WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR OVR CNTRL MN INTO
WI IN ASSOC WITH UPR LVL JET. A WEAK SFC TROF XTNDS ACRS ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU ERN UP TO GRB AT 15Z. CU DVLP AT THE LCL LVL ACRS OVR
UP ATTM...XPCT TO BCM MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTN PROGRESS.
WILL NOT UPDATE FCST ATTM.
.MQT...NONE.
DLG
FXUS63 KAPX 281143 mi
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
908 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999
SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FLOW OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
WEST INCREASING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...12Z DRA SOUNDING...SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS TO THE W AND N VERSUS TUE.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN
LINCOLN COUNTY INTO CLARK CO WITH UPPER 60S FARTHER S ALONG THE CO
RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED CLOSE TO ONE INCH AT DRA
WHICH IS ABOUT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PUSH. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S AT DRA AND MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS
CAPES NEAR 1700 J/KG. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT ON SOUNDINGS AND AREA 88D WIND PROFILES SO INITIAL STORM
ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO WELL DEVELOPED OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY.
MODELS OF NO HELP IN DIAGNOSING LINEAR NW-SE BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM NRN NYE TO JUST N OF LAS. CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NV. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY IS THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL WATCH EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE ALONG SRN AZ/MEXICO BORDER
S OF PHX. THIS FEATURE INITIALIZED DECENTLY BY 12Z RUC WITH DYNAMICS
IN ADVANCE OF IT GIVING RISE TO STORMS ACROSS SW AZ THIS MORNING.
QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY FORCING THIS WILL PROVIDE ACROSS SRN
MOHAVE AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES TODAY AS MODELS WEAKEN IT
WHILE MOVING THE VORT MAX SLOWLY W TODAY.
DESPITE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
AREAS TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NW ARIZONA (MORE
SUN/INSTABILITY) AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY (POSSIBLE FORCING FROM ELY
WAVE). WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TODAY PORTION TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW AZ AND DECREASE TEMPS ELSEWHERE BASED
ON CLOUD COVER.
NEMETH
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 281541 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
.DISC...MOSTLY CLR SKIES COVER REGION ATTM. CLD MASS VCNTY LK HURON
HEADING SE. ALL GRT LKS AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z INDICATG
QUITE DRY ALL LEVELS. BUT LATEST RUC VORT SUGG SOME SUPPORT FOR
THESE CLDS AS THEY CLOSE IN. LOOKS AS THO IT MAY BE AS A GEN
EXPANSION OF MID-LEVEL AC MAINLY ACRS ADIRONDACKS...AS PER LATEST SAT
PIX SHWG CLDS JUST BEG TO FORM THERE. THEY WL PROB THIN OUT
SOME...SO WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF SUN IN N AND KEEP THE SUNNY ELSW.
TEMPS LOOK GREAT BASED ON LTST SOUNDING DATA AND SURF RPTS...SO WILL
NOT TOUCH THESE. LOW DEWPTS SHUD ALLOW FOR AN EASY REACH TO FCST
HIGHS BY LATE AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS.
.ALY...NONE.
ELH
FXUS61 KBGM 281353 ny
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
FCST CHALLENGE: SEVERE WX THREAT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY SIMILAR PATTERNS DEVELOPING OVER FGF CWFA TODAY AS YESTERDAY.
SFC TROF AT 14Z EXTENDS FROM NWRN LK WINNIPEG THROUGH WRN ND INTO
SERN MT. SFC DEWPTS ARE ONCE AGAIN SURGING NEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO
ERN ND. TEMPS AND DEWPTS THROUGHOUT ERN ND AND WCNTRL MN ARE AS HIGH
OR HIGHER THAN YTDY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H5 WAVE IN NW FLOW PATTERN
IN ERN MT IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING TO YTDYS WAVE AS WELL.
12Z RUC FCST HAS SFC TROF AND THETAE RIDGE MOVING INTO ERN ND MID
AFTERNOON AND INTO NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. LIS ARE FCST ONLY INTO
MINUS 5 TO 8 INDICATING STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RUC IS NOT
BRINGING IN THE HIGH DEWPTS THAT ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN CNTRL SD
AND POOLING INTO CNTRL ND AHEAD OF THE TROF. A MODIFIED ABR SOUNDING
USING EXISTING ERN ND DEWPTS PUSHES CAPES TO THE 4K+ REALM WITH LIS
TO MINUS 11. WITH DEWPTS TO LOW 70S...LIS PUSH MINUS 12. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SIMLAR TO YTDY AS WELL. AGREE WITH SWODY1
UPDATE...THAT RISK OF SEVERE EXISTS ACROSS SRN ZONES. WILL UPDATE
HWO AND ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. WILL MONITOR SITUATION FOR POTENTIAL
WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
.FGF...NONE.
GUST
FXUS63 KFGF 280820 nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF FA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SHORT TERM...ONLY CURRENT MODELS TO LOOK AT THE 0Z NGM AND RUC...AND
BOTH ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FA AS EACH
UNDERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS AT THE SFC. WV IMAGERY SHOWING NRN EDGE OF
TROPICAL PLUME BUILDING INTO NRN PLAINS...WITH NGM NOT HANDLING THIS AS
WELL AS IT SHOWS 500 TO 100 MB RH VERY DRY. 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DID HIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER
IA AT 6Z. NGM DOES HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE OVER NE FA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE DRYING AT THE SFC IT
KEEPS THE BEST INSTABILITY TO THE SE OF AREA. 0Z RUC DID PICK UP ON
WEAK S/W MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA THIS AM...AND FOLLOWING SATELLITE
MOVEMENT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH DRYING AT SFC OVERDONE...AND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD
AREA...WILL KEEP MENTION OF A CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER ALL BUT
FAR NW CWFA WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT IN. WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW
HOWEVER. FWC NUMBERS DID OK IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE NOT MUCH PCPN HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TOO WARM WHERE HIGHER RH AND MORE
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE EXISTS. LOWER 90S LOOK GOOD MOST AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF RRV...AROUND 90 SE AND 85 TO 90 OVER THE NE FA.
.LONG TERM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
MAINLY OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS TO
STAY ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY 48
HRS...WITH SOME DRYING IN LOWER LEVELS TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE.
.EXTENDED...NGM SHOWS SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FA BY 48 HRS
WITH AREA OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. SFC TROF IN THIS AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
IN LINE WITH EARLIER AVN FORECAST WHICH WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CURRENT EXTENDED ON TRACK WITH THIS
SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. UNLESS NEW MRF ARRIVES PRIOR TO ZFP
ISSUANCE...WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED ALONE.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION DLH.
.FGF...NONE.
TURNER
FXUS63 KBIS 280647 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
WL CONT WITH PREV FCST. RUC HAS WK S/WV OVR THE AREA THIS AFTN AND WITH
UNSTBL AMS WL CONT SML CHC POP. TEMPS LK RSNBL AS THEY ARE RUNNING THE
SAME OR A DEG OR TWO ABV 24 HRS AGO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.CAE...HEAT ADVY TDA SCZ015>016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
CDL
FXUS62 KGSP 281406 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE 11 AM PACKAGE. LATEST RUC SHOWS INCREASED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING TO NC MTNS. ALL MODELS AND
THIS MRNG'S SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH CWFA.
WITH ALL THE BOUNDARIES FROM YTD'S STORMS...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTN.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT INDEX PARTICULARLY IN SC BUT WITH BLDG
CU AND BLOWOFF FROM CB'S WE SHOULD STILL STAY BELOW 105.
.GSP...NONE.
DICARLO
FXUS62 KCHS 281357 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1025 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
MRNG U/A ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WRN AND SRN
SECTIONS OF THE FA AREA THIS MRNG. THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT MAINLY IN
THE H8-H7 LAYER. 12Z RUC ANALYZED THIS FEATURE WELL AND SLIDES IT
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN.
VIS/WV IMAGERY INDICATES BAND OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ATTM. AS A RESULT... SCT/BKN AC DECK HOLDING TEMPS A
CATEGORY BELOW YESTERDAY'S PACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z RUC
FORECASTS DO INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTN. FCST TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
LOWERING TEMPS FOR NOW. CURRENT POPS LOOK IN LINE AS WELL. THUS...NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM
.MEM...NONE.
CBD
FXUS64 KOHX 281456 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
953 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NE KS E ACROSS NORTHERN
MO...S CENTRAL IL AND THEN E INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OH...WITH TENDENCY
TO SLIP TO THE SE WITH TIME. ALL THIS DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FROM IL
ON TO THE E...APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY 850/700 MB WARM ADVECTION AND
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES.
THIS PRECIP SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH INITIAL ANALYSIS OF 12Z
RUC 700/500 MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. RUC FORECASTS ONE
AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION TO MOVE SE INTO NORTHERN PLATEAU AROUND
21Z AND REST OF E TN AROUND 00Z. CURRENT POPS FOR PLATEAU MAY BE TOO
LOW AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ALONE UNTIL I GET
BETTER IDEA THAT THIS SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.
$$
STEIGERWALDT
FXUS64 KMRX 281359 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
12Z MDL SNDGS QUITE DRY...BUT RUC/NGM INDCT INCRG H8 MSTR TAFTN.
SOME CU ALRDY DEVPG AND XPCT MORE TAFTN. ALSO...CLD DEBRIS ASSCD
WITH REMNANTS OF TSTM COMPLEX APCHG W ZNS. NGM/RUC INDCT THESE CLDS
WL MOV INTO W ZNS LTR TAFTN. ALL ADDS UP TO PTSUNNY FCST.
TMPS ARE RISING QUICKLY BUT PREV FCST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE FOR
MOST AREAS. WL JUST RAISE TMPS IN CHMPLN VLY AS MID/UPR 80S APPEAR
LKLY.
.BTV...NONE.
KJC
FXUS61 KBTV 280616 vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
944 AM MDT WED JUL 28 1999
PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE AFTN WITH VRY WARM TEMPS AND SCT TSTM
ACTVTY...ESP IN SE AND S CNTRL WY. ALRDY A FEW SHWRS NOTED IN N CNTRL
CO. MID AND UPR LVL MSTR PLUME HAS SHIFTED BACK TO SW WY AND HAS
LINGERED INTO SE WY AS WELL. DRIER AIR AT MID AND UPR LVLS IS SPRDG
SLWLY N IN CO AS HGTS ALFT RISE OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS DRIER AIR
SHUD AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF SE WY AND THE WRN NEB PNHNDL LTR TNGT AND
ON THU. THE 12Z RUC AGREES WITH THE GOING FCST AND ITS TREND.
.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WEILAND
FXUS65 KCYS 280814 wy
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST WED JUL 28 1999
SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEATHER DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN A MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF CWA.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN WEST CENTRAL AZ CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY
THIS MORNINGS RUC MODEL. THE WNW PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE NOT
ONLY HELPING TRIGGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT KEEPING MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY THAT'S BEEN CAUGHT IN THE RAIN
GAUGE NETWORK HAS BEEN IN CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH 0.3 TO 0.98
INCH REPORTED SINCE 12Z. RADAR ESTIMATES ALSO SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE RIM COUNTRY. VERY MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP DAILY CONVECTION GOING THRU THE WEEKEND.
NEXT DISTURBANCE TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE INVERTED TROF
POISED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE AZ TONIGHT AND NW ACROSS THE STATE
TOMORROW. ANOTHER SHOT FROM OLD MEXICO EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. THUS HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF THE CWA THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE ISOLATED POPS ARE IN ORDER.
EXTENDED...SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH MONSOON FORECAST OF DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION TRENDS.
TW
.FLG...NONE.
FXUS65 KTWC 282118 az
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST WED JUL 28 1999
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WAVE MOVING THRU WEST
CENTRAL AZ ATTM. THIS FEATURE CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY RUC MODEL AND
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY. 12Z FGZ SOUNDING
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY...MODIFIED SOUNDING
SHOWS CAPE JUST OVER 1300 JOULES/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE
INCH. WESTERN HALF OF CWA EXPECTED TO BE PRIME THREAT AREA FOR
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU
THIS REGION EXPECTED TO BE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG CONVECTION.
TSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AGAIN TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR RAINFALL CLOSELY AGAIN TODAY AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
REMAIN VERY WET OVER MOST OF THE CWA FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL.
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
TW
.FLG...NONE.
FXUS65 KTWC 281646 az
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 PM EST WED JUL 28 1999
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR THIS AFTN AND EVE...
LTST SAT IMAGERY INDICTES SHRT WV MVG THROUGH WI WL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN. LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRING OF STORMS IN NW FA.
EARLY AM SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR SIG HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION
SHOWS CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -12. GOES SOUNDER
PRODUCTS FORM 17Z SUPPORTS THIS TOO. THETA E GRADIENT DECENT ALNG SFC
BOUNDARY THAT SHOWS UP MOSTLY IN SFC DP GRAD.
RUC IS STRONGER WITH UVV AT 700 MB BUT ETA ALSO SHOWS SOME
UVV IN FA AROUND 00Z. MID LVL DRY AIR AND DECENT FLOW (40 KTS) AT 500
MB LEADS TO CONVECTION ORGANIZATION IN FORM OF BOW ECHO WITH WINDS
MAIN THREAT. FREEZING LEVEL AND WBZ DON'T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL
THOUGH. VIL OF THE DAY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 USING AM SOUNDING VALUES.
PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5 INS SO EXPECT SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS...BUT IF MODE
IS BOW ECHO SPEED OF LINE WL LIKELY KEEP FLOODING TO A MIN.
NGM TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH CONTINUED RIDGING IN PLACE. POPS SEEMED A
LITTLE LOW GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION...WILL BOOST A LITTLE.
SBN TE 070/092 072/093 073 07431
FWA TE 071/094 073/094 074 07431
AOH TE 072/092 073/093 073 07431
.IWX...NONE
ADOLPHSON
FXUS73 KIND 281916 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT (211 PM CDT) WED JUL 28 1999
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WITH 7C DEW
POINT AT ABQ AND 5C AT GJT. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AT 18Z WAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE CORNER OF
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE RUC AND NGM SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WAVE THE
BEST. THIS SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE AIR
MASS OVER THE NORTHWEST KANSAS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AT THE SURFACE THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN 75 AND 80!
18Z LIFTED INDICES WERE AROUND -10 AT LBF. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THIS AIR MASS TO MY NEBRASKA COUNTIES...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS MAY REGROUP ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR STORMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
GIVEN LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND WAVE MOVES NORTH. THE PATTERN WITH ENERGY FROM
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AND SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE.
NGM FWC GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE FOURTH PERIOD HIGH AT HLC MAY BE TOO LOW
GIVEN THE AIRMASS TRAITS.
.GLD...NONE.
SKIPPER
FXUS63 KGLD 281646 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
355 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
WATCHING AND WAITING...
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED
LI/S TO MINUS 11 ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...AND MINUS 3 TO MINUS 8
ACROSS CWA. CAPES AROUND 3300 J/KG ON A MODIFIED SOUNDING OF
88/68...AND LOW 70 TDS PREVALENT ACROSS SRN CWA...SO CAPES EVEN
HIGHER. ALL THAT IS LACKING IS A BOUNDARY TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST LOWER TO MKE OFFERS LIKELY
SOURCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. RUC INDICATES THIS TROUGH MAKING
SLOW...STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD CWA...REACHING THUMB BY 00Z AND INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER BY 03Z. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES WITH 30 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT MID LEVELS AND DRY AIR AT MID
LEVELS. MOST LIKELY THREAT OF SEVERE WOULD BE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND
HAIL TO ONE INCH. WILL CARRY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...MORNING RESPITE...BEFORE WE DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN.
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRONT APPROACHES CWA TOWARD
EVENING...WITH POTENT 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION /850 MB WINDS TO 40
KNOTS/...CAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND 500 MB WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. ETA
DOES INDICATE CINS TO ABOUT 100 J/KG...BUT NOT AT ALL CERTAIN THOSE
ARE IN THE BALL PARK. SO...AGAIN...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS... FOR AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW NIGHT...CONTINUING ON THEME FROM ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FRONT APPROACHES AND CLEARS
CWA BY 03Z TO 07Z NORTH TO SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN TO OFFER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ON TEMPS...FAN AND FWC MAX TEMPS SOME 10 DEGREES APART FOR TOMORROW
AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD FWC/S BUT KNOCK OFF
ABOUT 3 DEGREES TOMORROW AND NEAR FWC/S ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS ALSO
SUSPECT WITH TDS INTO THE 70S ACROSS SRN CWA NOW...AND SOON TO BE IN
70S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. FWC PROGS TDS CONSISTENTLY IN LOW TO MID 60S
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WILL UP MIN TEMPS BY ABOUT A CAT GIVEN
LIKELY TDS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. RE HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL...T/TD OF 95/72 YIELDS HEAT INDEX OF 105. POSSIBLE THAT
DET COULD REACH THIS LEVEL TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT CLEAR
THAT WOULD LAST FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO LIMIT TOMORROW/S MAX
TEMPS. SO FOR THIS ISSUANCE WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW.
AND THE EXTENDED...
MRF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. CWA TO REMAIN UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA SATURDAY AND STALLS ALONG OHIO
VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND
RESIDES OVER CWA THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN PLAINS LOW MOVES TOWARD
CWA.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BEST EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY.
WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM FMR DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT WILL COOL
NIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY LOWS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
.DTX...NONE.
OKEEFE
FXUS63 KGRR 281944 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
TWO SYSTMS WILL BE AFFECTING CWA DURG PD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TIMING AND AMNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE FOR APPRECIABLE PCPN. FIRST SYSTM
IS CRRNTLY WORKING E THRU OH VLLY AND SPARKING TSTMS ACRS OH/WRN PA
WHERE MSTR SUPPLY IS MORE ABUNDANT. MAIN SFC DWPT BNDRY/THETA-E RDG
OVR WRN PA AND LATEST RUC FCST KEEPS IN MAINLY TO S AND W OF OUR
CWA..ALTHOUGH THERE IS A TREND TOWARD LIFTING IT NEWRD INTO SRN CWA
BY 03Z. ELSEWHERE MORE STABLE CONDS PREVAILING AND KEEPING SKIES
MSTLY CLR. SINCE MAIN SFC DWPT/THETA-E BNDRY REMIANS TO S AND W
TNGT AND LITTLE CONVECTION OBSRVD OVR CNTRL/NRN CWA WILL TAKE OUT
POPS ACRS THE N BUT KEEP 30 PCNT ACRS SRN CWA FOR TNGT.
AS FIRST SHT WV MOVES CLOSER TO CWA TMW PCPN CHANCES WILL INCRS DURG
AFTN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EWRD ACRS CNTRL PA. INSTABILITY NOT THAT
STRONG HWVR AS BUFKIT DATA SHOWS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. DWPTS
WILL SLOWLY INCRS TMW UNDER SLWY FLO MAKING IT MORE MUGGY...BUT WARM
AIR ALF...WEAK LIFT...AND NO REAL GOOD SUPPLY OF DEEPER LOW LVL MSTR
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE CONTD TREND WITH HIER
POPS ACRS THE S AND WILL TAKE OUT POPS ACRS THE N WHERE FORCING AND
MSTR SUPPLY WILL BE WEAKER.
NEXT SHT WV PROGGED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD APPROACHING WRN CWA TMW
NGT AND WILL MOVE INTO CWA ON FRI. THIS WV WILL BE STRONGER AND
LIKELY TO HAVE A STRONGER PUSH WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE SFC CDFNT FARTHER
S. RIGHT NOW FNT LOOKS LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON FRI GIVING BEST CHC FOR
LIFT AND TSTMS AS MSTR POOLS AND RIDES NEWRD ALNG AND IN ADVANCE OF
FNT. WILL TREND ABOVE FWC MOS AND GO WITH SCT POPS. DIFFICULT
TIMING OF FNT WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF TIMING PCPN IN FCST.
FWC TEMPS WARMER THAN FAN GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. WRKZNS
OUT...MAIN PCKG BY 315 PM.
.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES
FXUS61 KOKX 281840 ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999
ETA MODEL SHOWING VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
RUCII MODEL SHOWING 500 MB NVA WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR INDICATES RUCII HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
CURRENT SITUATION. WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING AND CLIP NORTH MIDLANDS. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MENTION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAE FOR EVENING OTHERWISE NO POP DUE TO
LACK OF TRIGGER...DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E. DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 60S...AND MID LEVEL CAP.
FOR THU...AVN/ETA SHOWING SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THRU REGION DURING
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NOTICEABLE COOL POOL AT 500 MB. WEAK TO MODERATE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UVV'S WEAK BUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECT
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAE. SPC HAS NORTH AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK. APPEARS SHEAR INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEST AFTER 00Z. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EVENING. ON FRI UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
AFTERNOON POP.
TEMPS...TODAY HEAT INDEX CLOSE TO 105...AT TIMES EARLIER...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 60S...WE ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO CRITERIA. ITS BEEN
MARGINAL LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CONTINUE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AND LET MIDNIGHT DECIDE.
PLAN ON GOING BELOW NGM MOS GUIDANCE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEEN RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. AVN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
OK.
.CAE...NONE.
AWP
FXUS62 KCAE 281418 sc
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT HAVE NOTED ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED PER
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.
WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LOW POPS THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ZONES TO COVER ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIATES DUE TO THE PALO
DURO CANYON CIRCULATION...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS OR 15Z RUC TO SUPPORT THIS NOTION TODAY
EITHER.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THESE COUNTIES ARE CLOSER TO THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH POPS
BASED ON THE COOL FRONT THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INDICATED BY THE MRF.
PRELIM CCF...
AMA UU 68/92 69/93 69 -00
DHT UU 64/94 65/97 66 202
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SLATTERY
FXUS64 KCRP 281915 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT WED JUL 28 1999
MAIN FCST FOCUS IS ON ON EXCESSIVE HEAT.
BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT. NGM MOS BRINGS TMPS INTO
THE LOW 100S THU. HWVR 1000 MB NGM FCST TMPS SEEM UNREALISTIC WITH 100
DEG TMPS OVR IOWA AT 1 AM...AND 95 CENTERED OVR QUAD CITIES AT 7 AM!
PREFER ETA. TMPS STILL HOT WITH FCST SOUNDINGS BRINGING TMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S. NGM MOS DEWPTS SEEM LOW...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.
EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION SHLD RESULT IN LOW 70 DEWPTS...EVEN WITH MIXING
FROM ABV. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 107 TO 112. NO RELIEF
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS WILL GO HEAT ADVSRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NEXT FCST PRBLM IS TSTM CHCS.
TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH SE WI THIS EVE. MDT CAPE (2000G/KG) VALUES
OFF RUC SOUNDINGS. SMALLEST CAP WL BE IN THE FAR SE VCNTY MKE-ENW.
SOME MOISTURE CONVE IN LOW LVLS.
NEXT ETA SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DVLPNG ACRS NE WI LATE TNGT
AS NEXT SPEED MAX APRCHS IN JET. IF ANYTHING DVLPS FAR ENOUGH NW IN
THE ASSOCIATED MID/LOW LVL TROF...THE NW FLOW WLD BRING A THREAT TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MRNG. THEN SMALL CHC SOMETHING COULD FIRE
AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES ACRS SE WI IN MAX HEATING. HWVR THERE IS
THE QUESTION OF A CAP. 700 MB TMPS WLD INDICATE TOO MUCH OF A CAP.
HWVR FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY HAVE THAT MUCH OF A CAP...JUST
STEEP LAPSE RATE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE HIGH CONVECTIVE TMP.
AM LEANING ON SLGT CHC ESPECIALLY DUE TO SPC SLIGHT RISK.
COORDINATED WITH ARX/GRB/LOT
.UWNMS...SIMILAR TO ETA. HWVR DOUBT NE WINDS WL DVLP TNGT BEHND
EXITING TROF.
ON THE QPF QUESTION. UWNMS BRINGS ISLD TSTMS THIS EVE IN SE WI...
AND MORE WIDESPREAD QPF WITH TROF AXIS THURSDAY. AMTS ARE LGT.
.MKX...HEAT ADVISORY THURS THROUGH FRI ALL OF SC AND SE WI.
ZONES 46..47..51..52..56>60..62>72.
HENTZ
FXUS63 KGRB 280853 wi