General Information:
In April 2002, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center hosted a drought workshop that laid the groundwork for the creation of a monthly continental-scale drought monitoring system for North America. Following this workshop, scientists from the U.S., Mexico, and Canada worked together to develop the North American Drought Monitor, an operational program of monthly drought monitoring and reporting. Although still in the developmental stage, NA-DM experimental maps are now produced each month by a team of drought experts in a manner similar to the US Drought Monitor and provided to the public via the worldwide web. Each drought monitoring map is accompanied by a text discussion of drought conditions in each country, providing public and private sector decision-makers with up-to-date information on the severity and expanse of drought in all three countries
NA-DM participants include:
To facilitate the continued development of the North American Drought Monitor, this workshop is being held so that scientists can discuss technical and user issues directly related to the NA-DM. Discussions will focus on the latest methods and techniques used in assessing drought and will include the integration of user feedback in the drought monitor process. The NA-DM is also the first step in establishing a near-real-time climate extremes monitoring system and assessment of trends for the continent. This includes a goal of producing a comprehensive assessment of long-term variability and trends in North American climate extremes by 2005. Consequently, this year's workshop will also address issues relevant to the creation of a monitoring system for climate extremes in addition to drought.
This North America Drought Workshop will be held:
June 25-27, 2003
Wednesday - Friday
National Climatic Data Center
Federal Building
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001 USA
Room 500 (the NCDC/AFCCC Conference Room)
Please note the following:
- Seating capacity in Room 500 is limited. Seating will be available to the first 45 registered participants.
- This Federal Building has 24/7 security. Federal employees must show their I.D. badge on every entry. Non-employees must show I.D. and will be issued a visitor's badge. All I.D. badges must be worn and visible at all times inside the building. Upon exiting the building for any reason, visitors must turn in their visitor's badge and be issued a new visitor's badge upon re-entry to the building.
- Equipment available for presentations include an overhead projector and a computer equipped for Powerpoint presentations and internet connections.
- A report will be prepared after the workshop summarizing discussions held and recommendations made. Speakers may submit a one- or two-paragraph summary of their presentation for inclusion in the report (this summary is not mandatory, however).
Workshop Agenda:
The following agenda is tentative. Changes can be made to accommodate additional speakers and to meet speakers' needs.
Wednesday, June 25 - North America Drought Monitor: User, Administrative, & Technical Issues
Schedule:
|
8:00 a.m.
|
Workshop Begins
|
|
10:15-10:30 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
12:00-1:30 p.m.
|
Lunch (on your own)
|
|
3:15-3:30 p.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
5:30 p.m.
|
End of Session
|
Speakers (times subject to change):
|
8:00-8:05 a.m.
|
Thomas Karl (NOAA, NCDC Director)
Introduction
|
|
8:05-8:10 a.m.
|
Jay Lawrimore (NOAA/NCDC)
Workshop objectives
|
|
8:10-8:20 a.m.
|
Richard Heim (NOAA/NCDC)
Other administrative matters, group introduction
|
|
8:20-8:50 a.m.
|
Brad Rippey (USDA)
USDA's Use of the U.S. Drought Monitor for Disaster Declarations, & Implications for the NA-DM
|
|
8:50-9:20 a.m.
|
Gregg Garfin (CLIMAS/Univ. of Arizona)
Feedback on Drought Monitor products from Southwest stakeholders
|
|
9:20-9:50 a.m.
|
Bradfield Lyon (IRI for Climate Prediction)
Water Demand, Climate Variability, and Expectations of Drought
|
|
9:50-10:15 a.m.
|
Jay Lawrimore (NOAA/NCDC)
Using Precipitation Estimates to Better Understand the Characteristics of the Wetness Product in North America
|
|
10:15-10:30 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
10:30-11:15 a.m.
|
Ted O'Brien (AAFC-PFRA)
Outcomes from the Canadian Participation in the NA-DM Workshop held May 12 -14, 2003
|
11:15 a.m.-
12:00 noon
|
Harlan Shannon (USDA/OCE/WAOB)
Development and Implementation of the North American Drought Monitor ArcGIS Project
|
|
12:00-1:30 p.m.
|
Lunch (on your own). ArcGIS Demo (for those interested, an informal demonstration of the creation of a NA-DM map using ArcGIS will be given from 12:30-1:30 during the lunch break).
|
|
1:30-2:15 p.m.
|
Harlan Shannon (USDA/OCE/WAOB)
ArcGIS issues, continuation and including discussion of:
- converting U.S. Drought Monitor from CorelDraw to ArcGIS for importation into North America Drought Monitor
- inputting indicator maps, creating additional output products, training/tutorial issues, etc.
|
|
2:15-2:45 p.m.
|
Michael Palecki (MRCC, representing the NOAA RCCs)
ACIS: COOP Station-Based Products and Processing
|
|
2:45-3:15 p.m.
|
Allan Howard (Alberta AFRD)
Modelling Indices for Drought Monitoring in Alberta
|
|
3:15-3:30 p.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
3:30-4:00 p.m.
|
Aston Chipanshi (AAFC-PFRA)
Enhancing Drought Reporting for the Canadian Component of NA-DM
|
|
4:00-5:30 p.m.
|
General Discussion Working Session - Administrative Issues
Jay Lawrimore (NOAA/NCDC), Discussion Leader
Evaluate, discuss status, and determine action items for:
- Is the NA-DM meeting or not meeting our goals and user needs
- Evaluation of drought monitoring tools we use
- Utility of other national indicators/monitoring tools
- Methods for obtaining additional users feeback.. i.e., ways to determine how useful this product is and how large the user community is
- Projecting a timeline for removing the experimental label
- The need for additional NA-DM authors
- Spanish and French versions of the NA-DM
- Production Schedule ... milestones/dates for receipt of data, processing of data, creation of the SPI and Palmer and PCTPCP (percent of average precipitation) maps, examination of additional monitoring tools from each country, creation of the NA-DM draft maps, review of the NA-DM draft maps with local expert feedback, creation of the final NA-DM map, putting everything online.
|
Thursday, June 26 - North America Drought Monitor Technical Issues & North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System
Schedule:
|
8:00 a.m.
|
Session Begins
|
|
9:30-9:50 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
11:45 a.m.-
1:15 p.m.
|
Lunch (on your own)
|
|
3:00-3:15 p.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
5:30 p.m.
|
End of Session
|
Speakers (times subject to change):
|
8:00-9:30 a.m.
|
General Discussion Working Session - Technical Issues
Richard Heim (NOAA/NCDC), Discussion Leader
Evaluate, discuss status, and determine action items for:
- Station data for Alaska
- Greater station density for operational SPI in Canada
- Transitioning from climate division data to station data for the contiguous U.S.
- Clarification of wording on NA-DM map (time period covered)
- Do we want to expand the NA-DM data collection/processing/product creation system to incorporate the other extremes (things that will be discussed on Thursday and Friday), or do we want them to be a separate data base and processing system?
|
|
9:30-9:50 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
9:50-10:20 a.m.
|
Michael Palecki (MRCC)
The Role of Multi-Decadal Modes in Drought Frequency
|
|
10:20-10:50 a.m.
|
Michael Hayes (NDMC)
Status of the Global Drought Preparedness Networks
|
|
10:50-11:10 a.m.
|
Pavel Groisman (UCAR/NCDC)
Forest fire index, KBDI, and its trends over the high latitudes [Alaska, Russia, and Canada] and in the contiguous United States
|
|
11:10-11:45 a.m.
|
Edward Cook (Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)
(To be presented by Mark Eakin, NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Branch, via VTC)
A new North America-wide PDSI paleoclimate product
|
11:45 a.m.-
1:15 p.m.
|
Lunch (on your own)
|
|
1:15-1:50 p.m.
|
Art Douglas (Creighton University)
Monitoring Temperature in Mexico: Separating Heat Island Effects from Natural Climate Change
|
|
1:50-2:30 p.m.
|
Lucie Vincent & Eva Mekis (MSC/CRB)
Climate Change Indicators in Canada
|
|
2:30-3:00 p.m.
|
Pavel Groisman (UCAR/NCDC)
Trends in Precipitation Intensity in the Climate Record
|
|
3:00-3:15 p.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
3:15-3:45 p.m.
|
Byron Gleason (NOAA/NCDC)
The Global Daily Climatology Network (GDCN)
|
|
3:45-4:15 p.m.
|
Ned Guttman (NOAA/NCDC)
Daily U.S. Data Integration and Quality Assurance
|
|
4:15-4:45 p.m.
|
Robert Morris (MSC/EC)
Real Time Data in the MSC for Drought Monitoring
|
|
4:45-5:30 p.m.
|
General Discussion Working Session - Developing the North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System
David Easterling (NOAA/NCDC), Discussion Leader
Discussion Topics:
- GETTING STARTED
- Defining what we mean by extremes
- Do we want to initially focus on the most readily recognizable forms of extremes? (e.g., cold snaps, heat waves, snow storms)
- Or more subtle climate changes that affect maximum and minimum temperatures, days with rainfall and heavy rainfall events etc..?
- Or longer duration extremes that can be detected in the pre-instrumental records?
- Defining the vision for monitoring extremes
- What type of monitoring system do we want to provide in the coming years?
- Will we focus on developing an interactive web site that provides outside users with tools for performing their own analyses?
- Will we provide ongoing monthly assessments in web-based report form?
- Will we produce annual assessments?
- DATA
- Current Data
- What data are currently available for monitoring extremes?
- Who will collect the data?
- Will all available data be sent to NCDC as a central collection and distribution point?
- Are the data accessible in near-real-time?
- Who will process the data?.. e.g., update the databases, calculate indices and provide near-real-time monitoring?
- Will the data be collected at a central point in each country and then sent to a central collection point in one country for subsequent processing or will each country perform its own processing?
- Historical Data
- Are historical records for these stations available?
- Are the historical data free of inhomogeneities?
- What adjustment techniques are available?
- What type of retrospective analyses should be accomplished?
- What needs to be done to improve databases for monitoring extremes?
- ANALYSES
- What types of analyses should be accomplished first?
- Possible indices/indicators?
- Total # of frost days
- Intra-annual extreme temperature range
- Growing season length
- Heat Wave Duration Index (Max period > 5 consec days w/ Tmax > 5C above normal)
- Percent of time Tmin > 90th percentile of daily min temp
- # days with precip >= 10mm/day
- Max # of consecutive dry days
- Max 5 day precip total
- Simple daily intensity index (annual total/# of rain days)
- Fraction of annual total precip due to events > 1961-1990 95th percentile
- Trends in heavy/extreme precip
- # of dry days per season/year
- # of wet days per season/year
- Number of days with precip >/< thresholds
- Runs of max/min temps /< thresholds
- Number of days per season with max/min temp >/< thresholds
- Others
- Ice storms
- Hail storms/thunderstorms
- Snow storms.. monthly total snowfall amount, number of days with snowfall > thresholds
- Dust storms, wind storms
- Use of Paleo data
- What data are available?
- What regions of the continent are best analyzed?
- Products to be created
- maps of full fields and anomaly fields, regional time series, station time series, percent area experiencing extremes, trends, etc.
- GENERAL DISCUSSION AND WRAP-UP
- Review of Data and Analysis discussions
- Development of milestones
- Possible proposals to be developed
- Discussion of review process group will implement before products are released
- Providing products via the web and other avenues of distribution
|
Friday, June 27 - North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System
Schedule:
|
8:00 a.m.
|
Session Begins
|
|
10:00-10:30 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
|
12:00 noon
|
End of Workshop
|
Speakers:
|
8:00-10:00 a.m.
|
General Discussion Working Session - Developing the North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System
David Easterling (NOAA/NCDC), Discussion Leader
Continuation of yesterday's discussion, determine action items.
|
|
10:00-10:30 a.m.
|
Coffee Break
|
10:30 a.m.-
12:00 noon
|
General Discussion Working Session - Developing the North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System
David Easterling (NOAA/NCDC), Discussion Leader
Continuation of this morning's discussion, determine action items, conclude workshop.
|
Register for the Workshop:
To register for the Workshop, fill in the form below and click on Submit at the end. This will prompt your browser to create an email with the information placed in the body of the email. You will need to click "send" to transmit the email. Your browser should be set up to be your emailer.
Hotel Information:
Participants are responsible for making their own hotel reservations.
The Renaissance Asheville Hotel in downtown Asheville had a block of twenty rooms available for the days of the workshop. The block of rooms was held until May 25, 2003, but rooms may still be available. When calling the Renaissance Asheville Hotel, identify yourself as a member of the "North American Drought Conference". At this hotel, the cancellation policy is: "to allow cancellation up until 6 p.m., day of arrival, to cancel without penalty". To make a reservation please contact:
Renaissance Asheville Hotel
1 Thomas Wolfe Plaza
Asheville, NC 28801
voice: (828) 252-8211
toll free: 800-468-3571
fax: (828) 254-1374
(within walking distance of NCDC - 5 blocks)
Renaissance Asheville Hotel amenities include high-speed internet access, in-room coffee service, Cable/Satellite TV with All-news channel and in-room movies, daily newspaper delivery, an outdoor pool and exercise room. Lounge/Restaurants nearby include : "Magnolia's" (Seafood, open for Lunch and dinner) "Orchards" (Continental, breakfast, lunch, and dinner), "La Caterina Trattoria" (Italian, open for lunch and dinner, reservations recommended (828) 254-1148). For more information concerning the Renaissance Asheville Hotel visit their web page: Renaissance Asheville Hotel . Check in time is 3:00 p.m. and check out time is 12 noon. This hotel is within walking distance (5 blocks) of NCDC.
Other hotels in the downtown area include:
Best Western/Asheville Biltmore
22 Woodfin Street
Asheville, NC 28801
voice: (828) 253-1851
fax: (828) 252-9205
Additional hotels within driving distance of NCDC are listed in the NCDC Visitor's Guide.
Driving instructions to NCDC and the hotels can be found in the Visitor's Guide at the following web page:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/about/ncdcvisit.html
|
NCDC / Climate Monitoring / Search / Help