EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 330 AM PST TUE MAR 30 1999 AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. RUNNING A LTL BEHIND DUE TO TROUBLESHOOTING HP'S AS CERTAIN KEY MDL OUTPUT HASN'T UPDATED IN DAYS. NGM/ETA/AVN SIMILAR THRU 24 HOURS IN AMPLIFYING A PAC SYS ALG THE W CST. THE AVN/NGM ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THE ETA IN THE 24 TO 48 HR PD IN MOVG THE SYS INLAND. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE AVN/MRF ALSO MESHES WELL WITH WITH THE EURO MDLS IN MOVG THE SYS INLAND SLOWLY...THEN CLOSING OFF AND AMPLIFYING THE SYS OVR THE INTERIOR WEST IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RDGG OVR THE ERN PAC. IN THE NR TERM...CSTL EDDY CONTINUES WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS IN SAN AND SRN ORANGE COUNTIES SPREADING SLOWLY N. THIS WAS WELL FORECAST BY BOTH THE 00Z AND EARLIER 12Z COAMPS AND BY THE RUC. WOULD LIKE TO EVALUATE ETA FORECASTS...BUT 40-KM RESOLUTION BOUNDARY LYR DISPLAYS ARE NOT YET AVBL DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HP PROBLEMS. CURRENT MARINE LYR DEPTH OF 1500 TO 2000 FT IS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO SPREAD INTO VLYS...BUT NOT REACH LWR CSTL SLOPES THIS MORNING. THIS MARINE LAYER DEPTH SHOULD RESULT IN LCLLY DENSE FOG IN VLYS... AS INDICATED IN THE OBSERVATION FM RAMONA...BUT NOT CSTL ZONES. WL ADD MENTION OF LCLLY DENSE FOG TO VLY ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS FM ONT BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z SHOW A NR SURFACE BASED INVERSION. ETA 2 METER AGL 80 PERCENT RH (FM LATE ARRIVING ETA BOUNDARY LYR PROGS) JUST EDGES INTO ONT FM 12Z THRU 15Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MARINE LYR IS JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE IN THE FORM OF DENSE FOG...BUT WITHOUT SUFFICIENT ADDITIONAL DEEPENING FOR THE DENSE FOG TO LIFT BEFORE BURNING OFF. ACCORDINGLY...WL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV THIS MORNING THRU 9 AM FOR ZONES 48/49. MAPS (VERSION OF RUC RUN THRU 36 HOURS) AND 00Z COAMPS BOTH SHOW ONSHR FLOW TONIGHT...BUT NO EDDY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF EDDY MAY BE IMMATERIAL TO THE CLOUD FORECAST W OF THE MTNS TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS STRENGTH OF ONSHR FLOW AND LWRG OF HEIGHTS ALF SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EXTENSIVE MARINE LYR WITH ENOUGH DEEPENING FOR STRATUS TO REACH LWR CSTL SLOPES BY WED MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING. SAN 011 .SAN...DENSE FOG ADV (SEE LAXNPWSAN). MARTIN NNNN ca COLORADO STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 247 PM MST TUE MAR 30 1999 ...IMPORTANT NOTE TO ALL USERS... THIS PRODUCT WILL NOT BE ISSUED AFTER 0300 AM MDT APRIL 6 1999. IN ITS PLACE...3 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY WFOS DEN...GJT AND PUB. THEY WILL COVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREAS OF EACH WFO FOR ALL FORECAST PERIODS INCLUDING THE 3-5 DAY EXTENDED FORECASTS. THESE PRODUCTS WILL BE STORED UNDER THE FOLLOWING... AFOS HEADERS WMO HEADERS FOR WFO DEN......DENAFDDEN........FXUS65 KBOU FOR WFO GJT......DENAFDGJT........FXUS65 KGJT FOR WFO PUB......DENAFDPUB........FXUS65 KPUB SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING A BIT OF A FETCH UPSTREAM TO THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND LATEST RUC DOES SHOW IT FAIRLY GOOD INTO LATE EVENING...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT. WILL KEEP SOME AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND/PRESSURE GRIDS POINT TO ENHANCED DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND HERE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE COMPARED TO THE CURRENT 20-35 KNOT SPEEDS. THE GRIDS ALSO SHOW THE FRONT TO OUR WEST REMAINING THERE THROUGH THIS FIRST PERIOD ...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOES SLOWING INCREASE ALL NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE TEMPERATURE/THICKNESS GRIDS SHOWING SIMILAR READINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING'S LOWS. RJK LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR ALL OF COLORADO: MDLS A BIT FASTER IN DVLPG PCPN FOR CO FM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALL MODELS DROP NEXT SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CLOSING IT OFF OVER NRN UTAH BY 12Z THU. GOOD MID LEVEL INSTBY STATEWIDE WED...WITH MSTR AND QG FORCING DEVELPING OVR NORTHWESTERN CO BY LATE IN THE AFTN ON WED. AS A RESULT...WL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWERS OR MAYBE EVEN A TS BY THAT TIME IN THE NW WITH SCT SHSN DVLPG IN THE MTNS. MDT TO STG SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVR CO THRU THE DAY WED...THEN DECREASES OVER THE W WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. ASSOICATED COLD FRONT WL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN CO WED EVENING. IN THE EAST...SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE IN FM THE N LATE WED NGT WITH UPSLOPE NE WINDS DVLP OVR NERN CO AFT 06Z THU. THE AVN...THEN TAKES THE UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADES IT INTO SRN NV BY 12Z FRI. AS IT DOES SO...THE FLOW ALOFT OVR NRN COLO BECOMES ELY WHICH MAY ALLOW THE UPSLOPE OVER NERN CO TO DEEPEN THRU THE DAY THU. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY ALSO RETROGRADE AS WELL. FOR NOW WL STICK WITH SCT POPS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WED NGT INTO THU WITH SNOW BECOMING LIKELY IN THE MTNS. HOW MUCH SNOW FOR THE MTNS STILL REMAINS A QUESTION MARK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED DYAMICS RETROGRADING (BACKING OUT OF THE STATE SOMEWHAT) W ON THU. WL KEEP CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST FRI AND SAT...WITH IMPROVING CONDS DVLPG IN THE W BY SUN AS THE TROF MAKES ITS WAY E. COOPER .DEN...NONE. NNNN co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 255 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 08Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. PER IR LOOP THE NORTH EDGE OF A CI SHIELD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE FA...OTHW CLEAR. MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THRU 48 HOURS IS CHC OF SHRA. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA. ITS 6 HOUR DEPICTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 305K SFC JIVES WELL WITH 3 HOUR RUC VALID FOR 06Z...AND LINES UP WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRA OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...THE SLOWER NGM/AVN MAY BE BEST FOR THE DEEPENING TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. AS FOR TODAY...ONLY SOME CI TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE WK MIXING AND CONTINUED EFFECT OF SFC RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ACCELERATE TO MAX VALUES IN LINE WITH FAN/FWC. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FOR TONIGHT...EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT QUIET. THE 700MB LOW AND ASSOC LOW-MID TROP MSTR WILL LIFT NORTH. FOLLOWING THE I305K PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES OF 50MB AND BELOW IN REGION OF ASCENT...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO SRN SECTIONS BY MORNING AS INDICATED IN GOING FCST. ETA SHOWS BEST OVERALL MEAN RH TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FA...THUS WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS HERE...LOWER OVER SE MO/SW IL FOR WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS WEAK (TRIVIAL MID UPR-LVL WIND FLOW) AND WITH FCST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY 5-6 DEG...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWER THREAT. BEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST IN REGION OF BETTER FORCING AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLUX. WILL END RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST SECTIONS...AND DROP MENTION OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY PER LATEST AVN. LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...AND LARGE SCALE DRYING. .PAH...NONE. NOLES NNNN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1010 AM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE 12Z RUC DEPICTS THESE FEATURES WELL...PROGGING THE WARM FRONT TO CROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF VORT MAX'S ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...ONE WELL TO THE NORTH OF IT WHICH WILL GRAZE THE WESTERN MOST ZONES WITH A FEW CLOUDS BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR AND SFC OBS ONLY INDICATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF MOS AND WILL THUS BUMP AFTN MAX'S UP A LITTLE. WINDS STILL RATHER LIGHT...BEST GRADIENT TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. .MQT...NONE. LULOFS NNNN mi SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 234 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 WINDS TONIGHT AND LATER PERIOD FROPA THE CONCERNS. LATEST RUC AND MID RANGE MODELS SUPPORT FROM 30 TO 40KT BOUNDARY LAYER/925MB WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. OPEN AREA VSBYS FREQUENTLY BELOW 5 MILES WITH BLOWING DUST ATTM. TIGHTER GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY IS MORE THAN WORTHY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ADVECT/DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. VERY MILD LOWS. ETA GOES NUTS WITH MOISTURE FIELDS BY 36HRS (10C H85) BUT BOTH THE NGM/AVN ARE CONSISTENT. WILL TREND THE AVN/NGM WAY AND EXPECT NORTHWEST KANSAS LOW PRESSURE TO TAKE OVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WARRANTS POPS IN NEBRASKA. RIGHT NOW WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED BASIS AND LET LATER SHIFTS REFINE THINGS. OUTSIDE SHOT IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO. SAGGING FRONT LOOKS TO SLIP AT LEAST INTO PART OF NORTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL PLAY THE COOL SIDE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS RIGHT NOW...BUT THIS TOO MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH ITS SEEMS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TOWARD EVENING. THE EXTENDED REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. POST FRONTAL PRECIP. APPEARS TO BE THE CONSENSUS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND THUS HAVE HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. CANADIAN MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LATER FRIDAY AND ACTUALLY FORCES WHOLE SYSTEM SOUTH. NOGAPS AND MRF WOULD HIT PRETTY HARD AND WILL TREND THIS WAY... THUS CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED EASTER WEEKEND FORECAST. GID...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MORITZ NNNN ne MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 953 AM PST MON MAR 29 1999 SYNOPSIS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING HAS TIGHTENED SURFACE GRADIENT ABOVE PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...WITH AN 18 MB GRADIENT FROM JUST WEST OF VISALIA TO JUST EAST OF DESERT ROCK. SURFACE WINDS IN GENERAL HAVE PICKED UP THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERTS TO 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BUT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR VERIFIES FOEHN GAPPING NOW OCCURRING TO LEE SIDE OF SPRING MOUNTAINS WITH RECENT GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S BOTH AT RED ROCK CANYON AND KYLE CANYON...AND ALONG EAST SLOPE OF SOUTHERN SIERRA. THE NEW MESO-ETA IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RUC RUN THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS SUSBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAXE JUST A BIT. BUT THE MESO ETA BEYOND 21Z INDICATES EVEN MORE TIGHTENING ALONG WITH TENDENCE FOR STABLE LAYER SLOPING DOWNWARD EVEN STRONGER TO LEE SIDE OF SPRING MOUNTAINS. SO...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA AND RAN IT THROUGH 10 PM PST THIS EVENING WITH CAVEAT THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT THE CURRENT EXPECTED INLAND TRAJECTORY WILL BE VERY DRY. NOT TOO THRILLED AT THIS TIME ABOUT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES ANYWHERE...UNTIL THURSDAY AT THE LEAST WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD VERY WELL CREATE LOW-END SCATTERED TYPE COVERAGE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NO LONG TERM FORECAST CHANGES. MCQUEEN .LAS...WIND ADVISORY ISSUED UNTIL 10 PM PST FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST RNONPWLAS FOR DETAILS. NNNN nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE ADDED SCA CHS HRBR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1005 AM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 CAE/ATL...CRNT TRENDS FM PREV FCST PKG LOOK GD. SOME HI CLDS SPILLING INTO SE GA...BUT DO NOT XPCT CLDS TO THICKEN UP THERE UNTIL AFTER DARK. ONLY CHNG I WOULD SUGGEST WOULD BE TO GO WTH EITHER P/C OR MSTLY SUNNY FOR GA ZNS. DISC...13Z SFC MAP SHOWS HI PRES RDG WORKING DOWN SE U.S. CST WTH SMALL CNTR OVR WRN SXN OF VA. STLT SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF HI CLDS INTO ERN GA...BUT RATHER THIN SO P/C OR MSTLY SUNNY SHD DO IT FOR THIS AFTN. FEEL THAT MORE HI CLDS WL WORK ACRS CWA BUT ENUF SUN SHD FILTER THRU UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY MNLY ACRS SE GA. CWF...PG SEEMS TO BE INCRG AS FCST ACRS SC WATERS. WNDS AT FOLLY BEACH UP TO 17 KTS AND 18 KTS AT THE 40 MILE BUOY. CRNT FCST TRENDS IN CWF LOOK GD. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS XPCTD. UPDATED...DOWNTOWN CHS WNDS UP DRAMATICALLY...NE 25 KT SUSTAINED. LOOKING AT NEW 12Z RUC DATA...APPEARS THAT PG WL RMN ACRS RGN THRU THIS AFTN THEN AS HI BLDS OFF NC CST...WL SEE DECREASED WND TNGT. WL ADD SCA FOR CHS HRBR ONLY AND MNTN SCEC FOR CSTL WATERS. NOTE...AWIPS INSTALLATION SEEMS TO BE GOING SMOOTHLY. ALREADY USING THE SYSTEM...NICE TO SEE IT AGAIN AFTER 6 MOS AWAY FROM THE KBOX. .CHS... SC...SCA FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ONLY. GA...NONE. EVT NNNN sc SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 955 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST STILL PRODUCING WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THE LATEST RUC STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDRY LAYER...WHILE THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING DEPICTS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 6K FT. THIS FEATURE WILL INHIBIT THE CLOUD DECK FROM BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE PREDOMINATE SKY CONDITION WILL BE CLOUDY EAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST. WILL TRIM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS... AUS 067/056 078/063 080 1--1 SAT 070/056 079/063 082 1--1 DRT 072/054 080/063 085 ---- .SAT...NONE. 13 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 925 AM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 HEAVY OVERCAST CONTINUES TO FLOURISH UNDERNEATH STRONG INVERSION ON 12Z MAF RAOB. BASED ON RUC AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ABI AND SJT ... INVERSION TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. LACK OF MIXING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STIMY CLEARING TRENDS. SO... PERSISTANCE IN ORDER WITH PERHAPS A 4 TO 8 DEGREE DIURNAL RISE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. INHERITED ZONE PACKAGE COVERS SITUATION. AS WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY... LOOK FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 17 NNNN tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 920 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME AN OPEN WAVE SHEARING NE OVER SRN MS AND AL AT THIS TIME. PROGRESSION OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN FASTER THAN ETA PROGS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST SE OF NEW ORLEANS HAS MOVED SLOWLY N OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALLOWING ENTIRE SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED. BOTH SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AND RUC PROGS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TO THE N-NE...STAYING W OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS METARS OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN MS/AL REPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. BELIEVE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS DEAMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE OUTRACES SURFACE LOW. IR SATELLITE REFLECTS OVERALL WEAKENING OF UPPER WAVE WITH CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN W OF APALACHICOLA RIVER SLOWLY DRIFTING E. METARS AND ALERT GAUGE SITES IN THIS AREA INDICATE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL BE UPDATING QPF SHORTLY WITH LOWERED AMOUNTS. AGREE WITH 21Z RUC PROG OF KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION W OF CWA OVERNIGHT CLOSER TO SURFACE LOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH THE FL BIG BEND AND SW GA ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL RAISE POPS AND TWEAK SKY COVER IN ZONE UPDATE. LATEST BUOY DATA SHOW STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS W OF AQQ...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK THERE...WITH CAUTION EAST OF AQQ. TJT NNNN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 MAIN FCST QUESTIONS OVERNIGHT CONCERN WIND AND TEMPS. WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER STRONG WAA PATTERN BENEATH MID LVL RDG. RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WILL SUPPORT BEST H7 UPWARD MOTION NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PER 00Z ETA. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST COND PRES DEFICITS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF CWA AS DRY AIRMASS WITH HOLDS ON OVER AREA PER 00Z LCL SNDGS AND RUC 850-700 RH FCST. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED INCREASING GRADIENT OVER AREA AS 992 MB LO NEAR RAP SHIFTS TO THE ENE. 00Z RUC FCST 900 WINDS AOA 60 KTS INTO UPR MI BTWN 06Z-09Z WITH. KGRB AND KMPX VAD WND PFLS SHOWED WINDS FROM 2-3K FT TO 55 TO 65 KTS. HOWEVER WITH H9 TEMPS TO NEAR 12C WITH WAA AND SFC TEMPS GENERALLY FROM 5-8C...INCREASING STABILITY WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM BECOMING TOO GUSTY NEAR THE SFC. WILL NUDGE WIND FCST DOWN A NOTCH. TEMPS REMAINING AT UNSEASONABLY WARM MID TO UPPER 50S OVER WEST WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ENOUGH MOMENTUM FROM WIND MAX TO INCREASE MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS STEADY OR RISING... AS TEMPS AT MNM CLIMBED FROM 46 TO 57 BTWN 02Z-03Z. .MQT...NONE. JLB NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1015 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS SCT/BKN CI STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL SHOWS SUBTLE INCREASE IN 500/300 MB RH/S OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE REMAIN QUITE LARGE OVER FORECAST AREA...WITH VALUES OF BELOW 30 MB REMAINING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN TO STAY NORTH OF AREA. RUC ALSO SHOWS 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS BY 06Z. THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING TO PRECLUDE THESE WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. STILL...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT FROM THE S/SW...INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 37 AT APN AND 52 AT TVC. APN IS ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOW. HOWEVER...WITH SOME CLOUDS IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T FALL SIGNIFICANTLY -- AND IN FACT MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES IN THE APN AREA OVERNIGHT. SMITH NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 940 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 ...UPDATE TO ADD CLDS AND DROP WINDS OVERNIGHT... GRR 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 45 KNTS AT 2000 FT...WHILE AT 1000 FT WINDS ARE 15 KNTS. WITH ONLY THIN SCT TO BKN CI AROUND TONIGHT AND VRY DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB... SHOULD STAY DECOUPLED. SO WILL DROP THE WORD BREEZY FROM THE FORECAST. WILL PUT PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD IN WORDING OVERNIGHT. RUC SHOWS CI WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOPE AS WAA AND ENTRANCE REGION TO JET CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CI OVER WI. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MI OVERNIGHT. SKY WILL BE BKN WITH CS/CI MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOWS IN MID TO UPPER 40S MOST LOCATION SINCE ENOUGH WIND JUST ABOVE SFC TO KEEP TEMP FROM FALLING LIKE IT DID LAST NIGHT... EVEN WITH AIR DRY BELOW 500 MB. WDM NNNN mi MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 750 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP CHANCE LATER TONIGHT. SURROUNDING RAOBS ALL QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AT UNR. SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS NE WY AND SE MT ASSOCIATED WITH 700 MV TROUGH WHICH THE 00Z RUC DOES CARRY EAST TOWARD MN BORDER BY 12Z. BASED ON THIS AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS IN WEST CENTRAL MN..WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN NW PART OF CWA. PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR REST OF AREA. WINDS COMING DOWN ON SCHED. MINS TONIGHT WILL STAY UP WITH SOUTH BREEZE. .MSP...NONE RICHARDSON NNNN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 730 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 WIND HAS GENLY DROPPED...AND SINCE HAD TO UPDATE FOR MORE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVY. COULD BE NEAR CRITERIA FOR A WHILE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STRONGEST WAS LIKELY IN THE AFTN. LOW CLOUDS ARE MAKING A BEE LINE FOR THE AREA...AND RUC SHOWED THESE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE NGT. LATEST STLT LOOP SHOWED THESE LOW CLOUDS UP INTO CNTRL KS. .OMA...NONE MILLER NNNN ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 915 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 FOR TNGT...SERIOUS CIRRUS HAS MOVED OVER AREA AND APPARENTLY IT WILL HAVE LITL EFFECT ON LOWS TNGT. SFC HIGH NOW CENTERED ALONG NC COAST RESULTING IN GREAT RADIATION NIGHT S OF HAT. WINDS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAVE INCREASED TO S AT 15 KT OR GREATER AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TNGTS LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN NRN PTN OF OUR CWA. WL LOOK AT THIS CLOSER OVR NEXT HALF HOUR. CWF: AS MENTIONED, S WINDS HAVE INCRSED N OF HAT AS SFC HIGH LAYS DOWN E/W. LATEST RUC SHOWS HIGH LINGERING OVER MID NC CST TNGT. CONSEQUENTLY WL CHNG CWF TO REFLECT SRLY WINDS N OF HAT. OTR THAN WINDS, NO SGNFT CHGS TO EARLIER FCST. .MHX...NONE. TK NNNN nc FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 930 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 0Z RUC SHOWS WEAK S/W MOVING THROUGH SW FLOW INTO SRN FA BY 12Z. SATELLITE AND U/A ANALYSIS DO NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE HOWEVER NEW NGM DOES BRING A WEAK S/W INTO SC ND BY THAT TIME...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY U/A ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA. NGM ALSO BRINGS AREA OF UVVS INTO SRN FA BY 12Z...AND WITH RADAR SHOWING DEVELOPMENT SW OF JMS SCATTERED PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS FA AND WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY AS 7H TROF SLIDES INTO THIS AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIS PROGGED ONLY TO BE AROUND 0...THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSRA AND LEAVE IN SHOWERS. WILL ADJUST WIND FORECAST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE ZFP ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. .FGF...NONE. TURNER NNNN nd STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 920 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 CURRENT RADAR/SAT DATA SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW STARTING TO MOV INTO CENTRAL GA. 21Z RUC DATA SHOWS PRECIP MOVING IN HERE MUCH EARLIER THAN CURRENT FCST...ABOUT 9Z. TOOK A LOOK AT LAMP DATA AND IT IS KEEPING PRECIP OUT UNTIL TMRW MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRT WV WILL MOVE TO OUR NW. WEAK CONV BNDRY S OF NBC IS ALREADY ACTING AS A MOISTURE FEED FOR THE SYSTEM. WOULD LIKE TO PUT IN POPS FOR TONIGHT OVR CHS SRN COUNTIES. DRY AIR HOLDING IN OVR THE NRN COUNTIES. FOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY HAS SET UP OVR SAV PER CHS AFD. BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HOLD IN UNTIL MORNING. CURRENT TEMP FCST COULD BE A BIT TOO HIGH. LIS GET TO -2 TMRW NIGHT OVR SRN CSTL WATERS AND THRU OGB. SO MENTION OF TSTMS LOOKS GOOD. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVR AGS BY DAYBREAK. WRKZFP/ZONCOR IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. .CAE...NONE. JDB NNNN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 855 PM EST TUE MAR 30 1999 IR LOOPS AND SFC OBS INDICATE SOLID AREA OF CS COVERING THE CWFA ATTM WITH LOWER CIGS (JUST AC LVL FOR THE TIME BEING) JUST UPSTREAM IN NE GA. IN ADDITION...00Z FFC RAOB SHOWING SATURATED AIRMASS ABOVE 750 MB...SO PLAN TO GO CLOUDY WHERE NOT ALREADY MENTIONED. EXPECT A GRADUALLY STENGTHENING WAA PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST RUC DATA SUPPORTING BRINGING A FEW HUNDRETHS QPF TO SW SXNS OF THE CWFA BY 12Z AS NORTHEAST TREK OF PCPN SHIELD HAS TO FIGHT DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK WHERE CURRENTLY MENTIONED. .GSP...NONE. CSH NNNN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 913 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 UNLIKE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS... APPEARS THAT CLOUD COVER HAVING A HARD TIME RECOVERING GROUND LOST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS THAT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RETREAT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS SHOW MOIST LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE LAYER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. RADIATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY BRING SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG TO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER AT 750MB SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT... SO WILL MAKE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. 12 NNNN tx SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 830 PM CST TUE MAR 30 1999 OVERCAST HOLDING ON TO THE EASTERN HALF. SOME LOWERING NOTED OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES. INCOMING SCATTERED CIRRUS ASSOC WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE. WINDS HAVE SWITCH TO THE EAST AS FORECAST BRINGING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. FOG PRODUCT SHOWING LOW CLOUD FILAMENTS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD RIO GRANDE PLAINS. 00Z RUC INDICATES DECENT SLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALG RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE RESULTING HIGH DEWPOINT ADVECTION WILL GENERATE AREAS OF DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE WITH THE HELP OF WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AWAY. THANKS WFO'S FOR INPUT! AS ALWAYS, COMMENTS WELCOMED! .SAT...NONE. 6 SYNOP/8 MESO NNNN tx NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 236 AM MST WED MAR 31 1999 SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS RADAR INDICATING SNOW STILL FALLONG IN THE AREA. ONLY ONE OR TWO RAWS SITES OF ANY HELP IN THE AREA WITH PRECIP TALLY. WILL UPDATE SNOW ADVISORY AFTER ISSUANCE OF FORECAST PACKAGE WITH (HOPEFULLY) BETTER HANDLE OF SITUATION. OTHERWISE...AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL DATA AND DISCUSSING WITH NWS BIS...ETA MODEL LOOKS BEST. RUC MODEL ALSO DOING A GOOD JOB OF MEASURING UP ON VORT MAX THAT IS AFFECTING THE AREA. IT HAS IT MOVING NE ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING AND LOOKS LIKE IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NE MT AT 18Z. GOOD PRESSURE RISES ALONG NE MT/S HI-LINE SUPPORT A SOUTH PUSH OF INVERTED TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER SD TO JUST S OF HVR. THE COMBINATION OF THE VORT MAX...THE UPSLOPE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROF OVER S PHILLIPS COUNTY WILL NOT BE THE CASE ELSEWHERE FOR THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ONLY THE VORT MAX WILL BRING MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS HI-LINE OF NE MT. THE WARM GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPORARY ACCUMULATIONS. THEN LAST IN THE SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING ACROSS E MT IN SW UPPER FLOW SHOULD COME THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ETA DEPICTING LITTLE ACTIVITY FOR NE MT AS MOST OF THE ACTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO OUR S. MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER E WY TONIGHT SHIFTING INTO SD/S ND THURSDAY. NE MT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY AS ACTION OCCURS CLOSER TO UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG SC MT/S FRONT RANGE. ETA/MESO-ETA MODELS KEEPS ACTIVITY FURTHEST S OF THREE MODELS WHILE NGM BRINGS ACTIVITY FURTHER N. AVN DOES LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE AS IT PROGS A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF CUT-OFF LOW OVER W OR. AVN KEEPS PRECIP THREAT OVER MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD BETTER THAN ETA. THEREFORE...I WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXTENDED...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR E MT. GGW 643 037/024/036 GDV 666 038/026/034 CCF GGW JE 037/024 036/019 041 76643 JAMBA ...CORRECTED CCF... NNNN mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 312 AM CST WED MAR 31 1999 IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG LOW LVL WINDS HAVE BROUGHT AREA OF HI RH AND SC INTO THE SE. LATEST RUC WOULD CONTINUE THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...BUT MODELS GENERALLY ERODE IT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A DECENT WARMUP AGAIN THIS AFTN. THEY ALSO AGREE THAT WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS LEAD SFC LOW MOVES NEWD AND WEAKENS WHILE A LOW IN NERN CO TAKES OVER LATER IN THE DAY. THE LAST POINT OF AGREEMENT IS THAT THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE AIMED TOWARD OFK THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS ARND 14C...TRANSLATING ADIABATICALLY TO A HIGH IN THE 75 TO 80F RANGE...WARMER THAN NGM MOS OR CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPS ARE TRICKIER TO THE NW OF OFK WHERE THE SFC FRONT MAY PENETRATE BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS PROBLEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST AS THE TEMP GRADIENT AND THUS THE CONSEQUENCES OF EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT INTENSIFY WITH TIME. MODELS DIVERGE RAPIDLY IN LATER PDS. NGM SEEMS TO PUT TOO MUCH ENERGY INTO FIRST EJECTING SHRTWV CONSIDERING THAT THE BIGGEST SPEED MAX TO ENTER THE WRN TROUGH AT THE JET LEVEL IS STILL NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF AVN AND ETA BUT LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER AVN SPEED. THIS MODEL HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL RECENTLY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF THROUGH 72 HRS. AVN IS LIKELY A BIT TOO WARM WITH 850 TEMPS...AND DOES NOT DEVELOP A DRY SLOT AS WELL AS THE ETA BY THU MORNING. HOWEVER...ETA LOOKS STRANGE IN ABRUPTLY CREATING ANOTHER MOIST TONGUE BETWEEN 18 AND 24 HRS. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THROUGH 36 HRS. FORCING TODAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD REACH NWRN ZONES TNGT...GENERALLY BLO SEVERE LIMITS AND NOT WORTH A VERY HIGH POP. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY INCREASES THU AND DRY SLOT COULD ALSO BECOME ACTIVE. AM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPC DISCUSSION FOR DAY 2...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF JET SPEED MAXIMA AND SFC FRONTAL POSITION. THE MODELS ARE IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BY LATER THU AND WILL TAKE A POSITION SLGTLY S OF AVN FOR A FIRST GUESS AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS ESPECIALLY FOR NWRN ZONES...WITH A HIGH PERHAPS ARND 60...AND MID 60S FOR OFK AREA. WILL CHECK SURROUNDING FCSTS BEFORE SETTLING ON THIS...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS A MAJOR JUMP UP FROM PREV FCST. .OMA...NONE POLLACK NNNN ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1000 AM EST WED MAR 31 1999 WILL AMMEND BIG BEND ZONES TO UP POPS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR GREATER TLH AREA WILL GO LIKELY AND MAY EVEN GO CATEGORICAL FOR ZONES BORDERING APALACHICOLA RIVER. FARTHER E...WL HEDGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS. 12Z RUC HANDLING CURRENT DISTRIBITION OF PRECIP BEST AT THIS TIME AND PROGS A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT THRU AFTERNOON HOURS AREA 88D/S SHOWING AXIS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING SLOW BUT SURE PROGRESS EWD ACROSS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE AND IS FIRING UP MAINLY ALONG A SEA SURFACE TEMP DISCONTINUITY IN THE ERN GULF. WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER THOUGH SO WILL LEAVE THIS WORDING IN. 12Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWED 37 KT WINDS BELOW 950 MB. LATEST VWP SUPPORTS THIS WITH 35 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT. SFC OBS THIS MORNING HAVE BEN SHOWING FREQUENT GUSTS INTO MID 20S MPH FROM BIG BEND W. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN...OUR SFC TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF INHIBITING A FURTHER DEEPENING OF OUR MIXING LAYER. ALSO MODELS SHOW 900-950 WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON SO NO WIND ADVY APPEARS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. WILL WORD ZONES AS BREEZY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. #18 NNNN fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 AM EST WED MAR 31 1999 LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS WARM FNT STRETCHING FM DAKOTAS-NRN MN-NRN LK SUPERIOR. 12Z RUC SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAX'S JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. THESE VORT MAX'S WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY VORT MAX'S MOVING NORTH IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE CLOSEST CURRENTLY OVER SW WI. THIS SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE WRN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURN SOME CLOUDS THE AREA...SPREADING EAST BY EVENING. THE WARM FRONT WILL REVERSE DIRECTION AND START TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN EFFECTS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...850 TEMPS AROUND PLUS 8C...TAKING A DRY ADIABAT DOWN WOULD ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S...HOWEVER WITH AC CLOUDS AROUND WILL NEED TO CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF THIS...PROBABLY MID TO UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. WILL LOOK AT 11 AM OBS TO MAKE FINAL DETERMINATION. GUSTY WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY WEST. .MQT...NONE. LULOFS NNNN mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD AND FOR TRAVERSE/BIG STONE COUNTIES OF MN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1010 AM CST TUE MAR 31 1999 LOW CLDS OVR CTRL SD ATTM HAS KEPT TEMPS FM WRMG. REST OF CWA IS WRMG ON SKED FOR NOW. XPCT LOW CLDS TO DSIPT SOON & TEMP SHUD CATCH UP WITH THE REST OF THE PROGRAM. THE WNDS IS THE BIG PBLM. THEY ARE NOT KICKING OFF AS XPCTD. THE RUC SHWS GRAD IS NOT THERE FOR THE STG WNDS TDA. WITHOUT THE WNDS...TEMP SHUD BE WRMR THAN FCST. NEW MOS GUID SHWS WNDS NOT AS STG THIS AFTN AS PREV GUID. SO...WIL MAKE SOME ADJSTMT TO FCST THIS MRNG BASED ON THE RUC & CRNT COND. .ABR...NONE NNNN sd