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FXUS04 KWBC 132006
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
405 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 14/0000 UTC THRU MAR 17/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODELS WITH THE MASS
FIELD EVOLUTION WITH THE ONGOING HEAVY PCPN EVENT FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MID TO UPR LEVEL HT FALLS IN THE
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM WL CONT TO PRESS NEWD TONIGHT INTO SAT
FROM THE SRN PLAINS...THRU THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX WL CONT AHEAD OF THESE
HT FALLS OFF THE WRN TO CNTRL GULF. THIS AND OVERALL FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS IN COUPLED JET EXIT/ENTRANCE REGION WL CONT TO
SUPPORT THE NEWD PUSH OF HEAVY PCPN. THERE ARE DIFFS TODAY WITH
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN ON THE SRN
END OF THE QPF AXES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS ONGOING
EVENT...IS NOW SPREADING HEAVY PCPN FARTHEST NORTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...NAM...CMC...SREF MEAN AND UKMET.
DAY 1 QPF IS FAVORING THE FARHER SWD QPF AXIS GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR A FARTHER SWD QPF
...SRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...
PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN DAY 1 OVR THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR LARGE SCALE
UVVS ACRS THIS AREA PUSHES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. OPERATIONAL
AND SREF GUIDANCE SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN AMTS DAY 1 ACRS THESE
AREAS.
...PAC NW...
ONSHORE SWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
PERIOD IN ASSOC WITH TWO AREA OF NERN PAC HT FALLS MOVG EWD INTO
THE PAC NW. THE INITIAL AREA OF SHRTWV ENERGY WL MOVE INLAND FRI
NIGHT...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF HT FALLS FOLLOWING THIS LEAD
AREA LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WL SUPPORT HVY PCPN IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WA
CASCADES...WA/OR COAST RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE. FOR QPF
DETAILS...THE DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE 12 KM OUTPUT FROM THE
NAM AND THE NAM SREF MEMBERS...DEPICTING AREAL AVG 1-1.5"+ PCPN
AMTS ACRS THESE AREAS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION...
SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THROUGH THE SRN STREAM
CAUSING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND PERIODS OF MDT PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTH. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING TO COME TO CONSENSUS TIMING/TRACK
OF THOSE IMPULSES...AND THE DEGREE OF NRN STREAM PHASING...IF
ANY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SECONDARY CIRCULATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. ECMWF/GFS REPRESENT A GOOD COMPROMISE ON THE LESS-PHASED
SIDE OF GUIDANCE YIELDING A SHEARED AXIS OF PRECIP FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST UP THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC....AND ONLY LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...INSTEAD OF A SECONDARY
LOW...AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE LWR MISS VLY AND SE ON D2
WHERE 1-2 INCHES WILL FALL...BUT THE MOISTURE FLUX WILL SLOWLY
WANE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON DAY 3. GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH FARTHER UPSTREAM...BUT LOCAL MAXIMA COULD EXCEED AN INCH
IN THE CAROLINAS.
...PAC NW AND INTER-MOUNTAINS...
ACTIVE NRN STREAM WILL INUNDATE THE PAC NW WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 140KT JET WILL CARRY 2-3 STD DEV
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTINUING THE DAY 1 THEME INTO THE D2/3
PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN TERRIFIC AGREEMENT HERE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE NAM BY D3 WITH ITS WEAK SFC PRESSURES. REGARDLESS...HEAVY
AMTS ARE FCST BY EVERY MODEL...SO 4-5 INCHES...LOCALLY 6...WILL
LIKELY FALL ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE AND CASCADES WHERE MECHANICAL
LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EVEN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN CA AND
OREGON WILL SEE AROUND 2 INCHES. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPILL INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN ROCKIES BRINGING OVER
AN INCH TO THE BITTERROOTS...SAWTOOTH AND TETONS...AND PERHAPS A
QUARTER INCH TO SURROUNDING TERRAIN.
SOWKO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 15/00Z
0.01 533215 537201 537196 536191 534186 530178 526171 522165
516159 506147 500145 492138 488132 482128 477126 472127
470128 468132 470138 474143 482147 483151 480151 473150
467145 461142 454143 448146 442145 436144 433148 433155
435160 437163 441169 444175 442177 440182 439195 440198
442198 446195 449192 452192 455189 456182 459177 465173
469173 472175 476181 478185 478191 476197 475200 469205
465208 463208 460207 456210 454211 449213 444212 440214
434214 431216 428216 425218 422222 424226 425230 423231
415229 409231 401231 399231 396237 397245 400250 404256
409260 414262 422265 429264 441260 448259 454259 463261
473267 485277 494287 499295 505295 510288 515278 519269
520264 520260 519249 517240 510223 510216 511212 514212
517215 521221 525225 529224 533215
0.01 395716 391712 386709 381710 378708 375708 371711 366717
364723 360728 355734 345761 339784 332797 327805 322811
318817 314822 315829 314836 311841 307846 298856 282874
273883 264894 258903 253915 245940 243950 241963 242978
243981 245986 249992 258000 264008 271016 275020 280017
283010 283004 283996 284990 288984 292980 296973 300971
304972 314977 322988 328001 337011 340017 344021 352030
352034 346038 341038 338041 333049 335055 335062 333069
330075 321078 313078 310081 307088 305094 306098 308100
313102 321103 326105 332111 340124 345126 349127 353126
356124 357120 354114 347099 346093 347084 350079 355078
359077 361079 367082 371086 378090 382089 385085 387080
391075 393072 394067 393063 391061 387061 384064 380062
376057 374051 373040 368025 365008 361993 359988 359981
362974 364969 369961 375950 379935 383919 390893 399860
400853 400845 397826 396814 396805 396798 396792 394787
394779 393772 394765 395759 397747 398736 397723 395716
0.25 530204 530199 528195 526190 524185 521181 518177 516173
513172 509170 505169 503173 504178 506184 508190 511194
516200 519204 521208 524209 527208 530204
0.25 511265 513260 514253 512245 507230 502217 499211 495207
491205 487204 482205 476206 471208 450217 438218 432219
427222 432232 430234 428236 425236 421235 417235 415235
414240 417246 423250 438251 449252 462253 468254 475258
483263 486266 496276 499278 503278 505277 506274 511265
0.25 488233 486230 483228 481231 482234 485236 488234 488233
0.25 386751 384741 381737 379736 374737 369740 364751 360761
357775 353786 342806 337817 332827 321844 317850 312855
304863 298869 292879 286889 280898 275907 273911 273918
274925 277933 280938 285939 290942 294942 301937 307934
311933 315934 324938 329938 333936 342931 346926 351921
353915 355909 359898 363889 370877 374866 377853 379841
383828 386816 386810 387801 384787 383775 383765 384756
386751
0.50 520191 519186 518184 516181 515180 513176 510176 509179
509184 511188 513190 514191 517192 520192 520191
0.50 509250 508239 504230 499217 498213 494209 486207 473210
467213 462215 456217 451221 454225 453231 440234 434237
428239 424238 419236 418238 418242 423246 435247 444249
449249 462249 470249 473251 487259 493263 495262 496259
495255 492247 490241 481237 480234 478230 475224 480223
483224 489229 494236 503248 506253 509250
0.50 378810 377803 376800 373797 368792 365792 360795 356799
349807 345813 340827 331842 320854 313859 307864 302870
298875 295883 290889 283901 294932 299933 305931 309929
314929 321929 326929 330928 335923 340915 349904 353896
357888 363875 368866 371858 375842 377832 378824 378814
378810
1.00 501238 500232 499223 496218 490218 488215 482212 479213
478217 484219 490221 492226 494232 497236 499238 501238
1.00 482245 479235 477232 473231 471233 467232 463232 461233
456233 453235 446236 439239 442242 450244 457245 465244
469244 475247 482245
1.00 370825 368820 366817 360816 353819 348824 342837 337849
331855 326861 310873 297895 293904 293912 308922 313923
320920 325917 331911 335906 341895 347890 351884 358874
363858 365853 366845 370825
1.50 478243 479239 479237 477234 476232 474233 473234 470236
471241 472242 475243 478243 478243
1.50 465239 464235 461237 458236 457236 457239 460238 463240
465239
1.50 457240 454238 451238 451239 454240 457240
1.50 360829 359825 357823 354824 351825 347831 346835 344839
346845 349851 352854 356855 358852 356849 357845 357837
358833 360829
2.00 478239 476234 473237 472237 473237 475240 478239 478239
24HR QP VT 16/00Z
0.01 525256 522247 520242 517239 515228 513223 511219 506211
506205 509205 512208 518213 529217 534218 536216 538212
539203 538191 535181 529170 523161 510147 498135 484125
466120 461118 459115 460113 463114 467117 471116 473114
476108 476106 470102 467099 461099 458097 455093 451091
445092 439091 435092 429087 424085 421090 422096 421099
418102 415107 413101 410099 406100 402106 399110 398113
399117 404121 408124 413126 415127 416130 416134 413142
411148 412152 411164 411172 412180 414184 418189 422193
428194 431191 434192 433200 430201 428199 426196 423197
419198 411202 403205 395199 390200 386202 385205 385208
390217 377224 370217 367219 367226 371230 377237 382242
388246 396253 403257 415263 425267 435269 444270 458270
489295 500296 505296 511293
0.01 401691 399688 395687 385685 378686 370688 362693 358696
355701 351710 344721 323751 318759 317763 316768 320792
318803 314811 307826 298841 290859 282875 278882 277889
276900 275910 270931 265947 261954 257961 256965 256972
257977 256982 254993 255997 260996 265992 270986 274983
278982 287978 294973 298966 304957 310948 314941 318933
321925 323917 329898 332889 337877 342872 347869 353867
358866 361867 368871 372873 377874 384872 391869 396867
401863 407856 411847 410840 409831 411810 410806 411800
415789 417783 415774 412760 410757 408759 405764 404769
404779 403784 401778 401772 401767 402752 403743 403729
402718 403710 403699 401691
0.01 440129 442121 437119 434120 431125 428130 426135 426143
424147 424151 428151 430147 433142 434136 437132 440129
0.25 517278 519267 518256 514246 510236 502219 498213 492205
488203 483202 477204 470206 462208 455210 447210 440210
435211 429210 426210 423214 419221 408214 399208 395207
392210 397217 400219 403224 397227 391229 388234 390238
397245 410252 420254 428255 437256 443256 458253 467255
475260 488272 498283 502288 507289 513285 517278
0.25 523197 523189 521182 518175 513168 506159 496149 489139
483134 478131 472132 469138 462138 457141 452144 446145
439144 435148 435156 437162 440168 445174 450184 453186
456186 460181 458176 454172 455167 457164 461164 469171
475175 480177 487181 493181 498181 503183 509188 513192
517196 523197
0.25 451109 450105 447104 444104 441104 438104 435104 432106
430108 429111 429112 432113 435113 438113 441114 443114
446114 449113 451109
0.25 384719 380715 378714 373715 367719 363717 357719 351724
348732 346738 348748 348755 345767 345774 345782 344789
343797 337809 333815 329819 319828 314833 310838 303849
299859 290885 287897 284910 283923 280938 276950 277954
278956 283957 287954 292949 300939 307929 311918 315905
320890 325879 330869 347845 353835 355829 356823 358815
360809 363802 365793 368780 373769 380756 382749 383740
384729 384719
0.50 514271 514261 512253 505237 500223 496216 491210 488208
484207 477208 464211 452213 440215 432214 428216 423221
421225 418225 410224 406227 393233 394237 396241 400244
408248 417251 424252 430252 437252 443252 456249 461249
470252 481259 492271 502282 505282 507278 509272 510270
512272 514271
0.50 488233 488232 488229 486224 483225 480225 479226 480227
482231 482232 485233 488233 488233
0.50 486165 484160 479156 476155 471150 468147 465146 462147
459152 461157 465161 469165 472167 478169 484169 486165
0.50 450167 451163 451159 450157 447154 444152 441150 438150
437153 438156 438157 440161 441161 443164 444166 446167
448170 450167
0.50 373722 369724 367727 365730 363732 358729 355730 352731
351735 353738 357741 363740 367735 371736 373734 374730
372727 373722
0.50 340837 340833 339830 334830 321834 313841 308850 304859
301869 294890 289907 289914 292918 295923 296928 299930
301927 303923 304911 308902 312893 316884 320875 324867
331858 336849 340838 340837
1.00 461242 463239 462236 460233 456227 462226 463224 463219
459216 455216 449217 434218 428221 423230 411230 405233
401239 405243 414247 422248 432249 444247 457243 461242
1.00 310878 310875 308873 307876 306878 305880 304883 304884
303887 305887 306886 307884 309882 309881 310878
1.50 452239 449235 445232 447227 451224 453222 452220 445219
436221 433223 429227 429231 424234 414233 411235 408237
409241 418245 426246 435245 445244 449242 452239
2.00 443240 442239 440237 437238 439240 442240 443240
2.00 428244 427239 425238 422238 419237 416237 414239 415241
418243 421243 424244 427244 428244
24HR QP VT 17/00Z
0.01 524261 523253 524246 526242 534225 538213 539204 537196
536191 533186 529179 525172 520165 511151 484126 480121
476113 476102 473093 471088 468084 461077 455072 447068
444068 437071 435073 433076 436079 442082 444085 445089
441088 439086 434086 428084 423085 421088 422095 424099
420101 418104 413105 409103 402109 400114 403118 405121
409123 414125 416130 412148 412157 413163 412169 411175
412180 416184 419187 423190 423194 421197 419198 405201
400200 396196 390192 383188 379188 376194 378202 382209
387213 390216 390219 382218 380221 377222 370219 371227
375235 380243 389252 400264 408269 417272 423273 428272
435270 440268 446263 452260 458257 463258 468260 479265
491275 495282 500291 505298 508298 512295
0.01 413784 412780 410778 403774 389768 383762 379757 377752
366730 363721 358711 352704 346703 337704 326710 322713
318717 315723 313730 311737 311747 311756 310775 311783
311793 308801 304806 301808 297812 293818 291825 289835
286853 283866 278882 275897 274906 274917 262943 266949
272954 267961 260967 258975 259982 259987 262987 266982
269976 272968 276961 283954 288951 297948 304945 311941
318935 324927 326920 330913 335907 339901 342893 344883
347875 349865 352857 354853 358851 364837 368829 373822
378816 385810 393807 402801 409793 413784
0.25 516272 518259 516248 514240 510230 505221 500214 496208
492204 486202 482202 478203 471206 465209 461209 458211
450212 443211 434210 427205 423204 420205 414208 405206
398203 392203 389207 391211 395218 397223 394226 391228
388231 389236 390240 396247 401253 407256 415261 423262
431261 443256 450253 458251 464251 473254 479257 487264
499278 504281 511279 514276 516272
0.25 514190 514185 512183 510179 509179 508179 508184 509184
512187 514190 514190
0.25 496167 495163 493157 485147 483143 483138 480135 477132
469129 464127 461122 462112 461109 458106 453097 444098
437096 433102 430108 428111 431116 435120 439125 441129
439133 436135 434138 434148 433156 436161 442171 445177
444181 443188 443190 446193 450192 454188 458184 462178
465175 469175 476175 483178 488178 493176 496167
0.25 347738 345733 342727 336720 333719 329722 325727 322732
319750 318759 317766 318772 320783 320792 318804 317808
313813 309820 306829 303837 298846 296855 297866 296873
295877 293887 292896 291906 295916 298919 303921 310917
315910 326894 330885 334875 336866 339855 342835 345813
346803 345795 343789 341784 342778 345767 348753 348744
347738
0.50 510270 513263 514258 513253 508241 503229 496218 491211
486208 480207 477207 470209 461212 453214 440214 431213
428211 426210 424214 421217 419217 414213 408212 398207
396207 394209 396215 399219 401223 399227 395230 393233
394237 397243 405251 412255 418258 423258 431257 443252
449250 459247 468247 475249 482252 489258 494268 499274
502276 504270 501265 498260 496255 495248 493243 483233
480229 479226 478221 483221 489223 492227 495240 502252
507264 508269 510270
0.50 481164 483161 482158 479155 471149 465145 463144 459145
456148 453149 450150 441145 438144 435152 437159 440163
446170 450180 454181 455177 455172 455168 457165 461163
469167 478166 481164
0.50 452113 452109 450105 447103 444102 441102 438103 437104
435108 436112 438113 441114 443115 446116 449116 452113
0.50 340746 339739 336735 333734 330737 327741 326746 324754
324759 324765 326775 328781 328788 330796 333786 335778
335774 337770 339761 340749 340746
0.50 332801 332800 330798 327796 326800 326801 326804 327807
328807 330806 331805 332802 332801
0.50 335832 335826 333821 331818 326819 318824 314831 307846
304851 301860 302869 300878 300886 300895 303901 304907
307911 310909 312906 317900 321893 325886 330871 333863
334853 336835 335832
1.00 478239 477233 473231 470233 467234 466230 466224 466218
464216 448216 439216 431217 427218 424222 421224 415223
412219 409218 407218 405225 401232 400238 402243 408249
416253 423253 431252 438250 447247 460241 464239 467236
472239 475240 478239
1.00 450159 449158 447157 444155 443153 441152 439153 441157
443159 446160 449159 450159
1.00 324853 321846 317851 313857 310861 311866 314867 316871
315880 314887 317887 319884 321878 322873 320868 322861
324855 324853
1.50 464221 458218 451218 443218 437219 431221 428224 426229
423230 420228 416228 412226 409225 407229 404235 403240
406244 411248 420250 425250 432249 445245 457239 460236
459230 458228 461224 464221
2.00 453239 449229 455223 445220 443219 436221 433223 431228
429232 426234 423233 417231 414231 408232 406236 406241
411246 417248 423248 432247 441244 448242 453239
3.00 442240 440237 436238 431238 425237 419236 416236 413238
415243 418244 421244 427245 431244 436243 439240 442240
A$$
