FXUS61 KALY 101116 AAA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST FRI JAN 10 2003

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REVISE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TODAY FOR SOME ZONES.
TEMPS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY HAVE FALLEN FASTER THAN EARLIER 
THOUGHT...SO WILL FCST TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE 
TEENS.  HAVE ALSO REVISE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND 
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES TO REFLECT A FASTER DROP IN 
TEMPS.  

..................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................

.DISC...ONCE AGAIN A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY...
COLD AIR HAS FILTERED DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY MUCH FASTER THAN 
SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN OR THE MOHAWK VALLEY.  18 DEG AT ALB AND 
14 AT GFL...WHILE UCA AT 27...DDH AT 23...PSF AT 33 AND BGM AT 33.
FURTHER SOUTH...COLDER AIR HAS NOT ARRIVED YET AND POU HAS ACTUALLY 
RISEN TO 40 DEG.

TEMP FCST FOR TODAY WILL BE A MIX OF WORDING WITH SOME ZONE GROUPS 
INDICATING A FCST HIGH...SOME ZONE GROUPS WORDED WITH STEADY OR 
SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT MORE STRONGLY 
WORDED AS FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

SNOW FROM THE LATEST CLIPPER JUST ABOUT OUT OF FCST AREA SO WILL 
ONLY MENTION FLURRIES FOR TODAY.  

DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ANOTHER VERY WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND 
LAKE EFFECT...WILL FCST SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS WRN 
ZONES...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ERN ZONES.  DESPITE HIGH 
INSTABILITY...BUFKIT SHOWS WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH SO WILL NOT 
MENTION SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.  WILL ONLY FCST AN 
INCH OR LESS ACCUM BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 

LATEST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL 
PASS BY OUR AREA TO THE NORTH.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN WARMER MOS 
FCSTS THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES.  MAV MOS IN PARTICULAR HAS WARMED UP 
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS SCENARIO AND 
HAVE RAISED FCST TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HYDROLOGIC STATUS...NO PROBLEMS FOR NEAR TERM WITH COLD TEMPS NOT 
ALLOWING SNOW MELT.
 
ALY...NONE. 
 
MAGLARAS