FXUS64 KEWX 301541 AAA
AFDSAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2003

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT OBSERVED CONDITIONS REVEALS MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FORECAST WARNING COUNTY AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGED IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS AREA. A A SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. PROFILER OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FROM 925
TO 300MBS...RANGING FROM 15 TO 45KTS.

MODEL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE GFS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN
THE ETA WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVED DATA OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC
CALIFORNIA COASTAL REGIONS AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ETA INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE OBSERVED DATA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES.
MODEL TRENDS SHOW THAT BOTH MODELS ARE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THEIR
DAY ONE SOLUTIONS COMPARED WITH THE 00Z RUN YESTERDAY.  THE GFS IS
FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WEATHER.  THE ETA IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  THE ETA AND NGM ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH THE GREAT
LAKES WEATHER.  BY DAY TWO AND THREE...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
MOST SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...AFTER DAY THREE...THE GFS TAKES OFF ON
ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...MOVING IT
FASTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.

IN SUMMARY...LOOKING FOR CONTINUED CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITION THROUGH
TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SLOW WARMUP IS
EXPECTED WITH RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
TOMORROW...WEDNESDAY. THE 4AM FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS WELL. SEE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...UPDATES...CORRECTIONS AND/OR AMENDMENTS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RESPONSE TO THE LOW ON THE WEST COAST DIVING TWD BAJA.  WILL SEE A
GOOD WARMUP TDA ALONG WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC RDG.  THE UNUSUALLY LOW DEW POINTS ACRS S TX WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND TONIGHT AS STG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS
AND THEREFORE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ADVECTION FOG/LOW STRATUS
BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. INCREASING CI FROM THE WEST COULD ALSO
INHIBIT STRATUS BREAKUP AND WITH CONTD MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LIKELY SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE UPR LOW
NR BAJA OPENS AND LIFTS OUT INTO NM/W TX.  WITH BEST LIFT IN NORTH
AND WEST TX EXPECT MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR.   BY
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND A FAIRLY STG ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH
RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL AND DECREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A CDFNT EARLY SUNDAY.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY EXPECT
ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILING INTO MID WEEK.  LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7...THIS MORNINGS 240
HOUR GFS SHOWS THE FIRST GOOD ARCTIC AMS PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. TWD S TX LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY FOR EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY.

&&

$$