000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021446 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CURRENT POSITION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES. OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATED 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 021446 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST DISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. KRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CURRENT POSITION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS ALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES. OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON FASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATED 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1200Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA