INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 900 AM PST TUE DEC 10 2002 AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME STRATUS BANKED UP AGAINST THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...CI/AC WAS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE FLOW. FOR THE NEAR TERM...12Z KVBG SOUNDING INDICATES H85 TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE FROM 09/12Z...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE VISALIA WIND PROFILER. THINK WE WILL HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM IMPROVING VISIBILITIES SHORTLY AS RUC FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE SLOWER GOING TRYING TO ERODE THE SOUTH VALLEY STRATUS...WITH HIGH H85 RH VALUES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY AND A LITTLE UPSLOPE PRESENT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH A FEW TEMPERATURES...SO WILL UPDATE SOON TO REMOVE MORNING FOG AND LOWER A FEW SOUTH VALLEY HIGHS FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING TO OUR NORTH EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKYCOVER TO SUFFICE. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR VALLEY PRECIP TODAY BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT...WILL RETAIN POPS. SIERRA ALONG OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY MAY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH. RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING. THINGS STILL LOOK PROMISING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR LATE SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS A RAPID SUCCESSION OF SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AFD. BURGER .HNX...NONE. ca SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI 1144 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FL LATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GULF. 12Z SOUNDING AT KMFL REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH 1900 CAPE AND -6 LI. MID-LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND KEYW SOUNDING. AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH IN THE EAST...CONVERGENT AREA OVER INTERIOR S FLORIDA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO PICK UP ON THIS AND BRINGS PRECIP OVER TO THE EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY CLEARED OVER CWFA SO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ZONES. .MIA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. $$ HANDEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 900 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 UPDATED ZONES TO ADD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF I-57 AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOO FROM I-70 SOUTH. ELEVATED LOWS TO NEAR 30 FROM I-70 SOUTH...BUT COOLED THEM TO AROUND 20 ALONG I-55 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND ARCHING WEST INTO CENTRAL IL...THEN SOUTH INTO AR/LA OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH TO KEEP AREAS WEST OF I-57 DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. COOLEST LOWS UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG I-55 NEAR 20 WHILE MID 20S NW CWA AND EASTCENTRAL IL. MEANWHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MEMPHIS TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z. THIS IS SPREADING MOISTURE NNE INTO SE IL WITH LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN REPORTED AT KLWV SO FAR THIS EVENING AND TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AT 34. AREAS JUST SOUTH OF CWA REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. RUC AND MESOETA SHOWING LIGHT QPF SPREADING NNE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-57 OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUD SHIELD JUST EAST OF I-55. ENOUGH MILDER AIR SOUTH OF I-70 TO SUPPORT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. NOWCAST INCLUDED POSSIBLE ICING AS TEMPS IN MID 30S SLOWLY COOL TOWARD 30 BY DAYBREAK. DEWPOINTS IN SE CWA IN MID TO UPPER 20S WHILE ONLY TEENS NW OF MATTOON. ETA BUFKIT DOES NOT SHOW CLOUDS CLEARING EASTERN IL UNTIL AFTER 18Z WED AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. .ILX...NONE. $$ HUETTL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 900 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...WE PLAN TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOUT ONE TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE INITIAL AREA FROM THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AS NOTED BY LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND SCHOOL MESONET SITES. IN FACT...WE/RE 32.4 HERE AT LMK. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF LEXINGTON HAVE DROPPED TO AT OR NEAR FREEZING AS WELL...AND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE BETWEEN LEX AND CVG...SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE TO COOL WHICH COULD CREATE ISOLATED ICING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA AS WELL. LATEST H85 ANALYSIS VERIFIED WELL WITH THE 18Z META PACKAGE WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES TRENDS...BUT MAY HAVE NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE HEIGHTS. STILL A GOOD FETCH OF 30KT LOW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES ADVECTING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IS TRANSLATING TO CONTINUED LIFT GENERATING LIGHT RAINFALL. LATEST 00Z RUC40 ALSO SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF TEMPERATURES COOLING TO JUST AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED VERY MINOR ICING CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN DUBOIS COUNTY AND HARRISON COUNTY ON ABOVE GROUND SURFACES...AND LOCAL DISPATCH FROM CRAWFORD COUNTY INDICATED THAT BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WERE BEGINNING TO BECOME SLICK AS WELL. SURFACE ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 34 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...WHILE FUEL MOISTURE (WOOD) TEMPERATURES IN PERRY COUNTY AT TIPSAW LAKE WERE RIGHT AT FREEZING. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT...AND MAIN ROADWAYS SHOULD BE FINE OVERALL...SECONDARY ROADS...SIDEWALKS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TOWARD MORNING AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS TO FREEZING OR BELOW AT THAT POINT. THE DEFINITIVE END TO THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS SEEMED AS NOTED ON IR IMAGERY LINES UP WELL WITH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES...THUS THE SOUTH TO NORTH PROGRESSION AS INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS ON TRACK...ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT TONIGHT WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FROM 33 TO 36 IN THESE AREAS...WITH NO MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED. .SDF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. $$ VLD ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 945 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERN FOCUS ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACRS IA TWD SRN MN. 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWS SHALLOW MOISTURE...ONLY ABOUT 1K FEET DEEP...LESS THAN 930MB...HWVR STRONGER SLY WIND COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS AT OAX. SLATER WIND PROFILER SHOWING 25 KTS AT LOWEST GATES. LATEST MESOETA AND RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING INTO SRN MN BUT THINNING SOMEWHAT...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF SC BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN. HENCE WL INTRODUCE SOME CLDS TO SERN AREAS BUT NOT GO OVERBOARD WITH CLDS AND FOG ATTM. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL STREAM OF MOISTURE SPREADS NEWD INTO SRN/ERN AREAS OF CWA TNGT...AND LINGERS UNTIL MID LEVEL TROF PUSHES THRU LATER IN WEEK. HENCE TODAY SHOULD BE CLEAREST DAY OF WEEK. .MSP...NONE. $$ MBK mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 450 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/MESOETA INDICATE THE RAIN BANDS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY WORK FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA SOUNDING PROFILER ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. 200 AM... FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES & ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK FOR TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS/POPS FOR THU/FRI. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NEAR KADM IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN BANDS AS FAR NORTH AS KFSM AND KRUE IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AROUND THE OZARKS SO IF ANY CLOUDS MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA IT WOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD. HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER TODAY NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER WITH A GENERAL TREND TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE FAR NORTH. EARLY FORECAST HAD LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH AT THIS TIME DOES NOT SEEM POSSIBLE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY DEVIATION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING FURTHER NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. NEXT PROBLEM DEALS WITH RETURN OF STRATUS IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOETA LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH A FETCH OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. HAVE BLENDED WITH ICT/EAX CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER LATER SHIFT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE OR DECREASE STATUS LAYER IF IT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT CLOUD TRENDS SINCE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUD COVER THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THU/FRI CONTINUES TO BE A FORECAST PROBLEM DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THURSDAY AND RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS HAS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW AND COLD POCKET MOVING THRU FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG DIABATIC COOLING MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SCENARIO WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW WHERE THE COLDEST POCKET MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MORNING HWO AND GIVE THE POSSIBILITIES OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN A SMALL BAND. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. PRELIMINARY ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT. .SGF... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. JLT mo SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 220 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY ABOUT COMPLETED WITH TEMPS ARND 50 F CWA WIDE...GIVE OR TAKE CPL DEGREES. EXCEPTION WAS OVR SVRL SERN ZONES WHERE ST WAS SLOW TO ERODE. ALL OCCURRING UNDER SHRTWV RIDGE BTN LOWS XG AR AND DROPPING HTS OVR THE NWRN CONUS. ST AGAIN EXPECTED TO WORK OVR SERN QUAD OF CWA TNGT AS PER S WNDS/WEAK TROF/HIGH PLNS LOW. SITUATION IS SPPRTD BY RUC MSTR/COND PRES PROGS. RUC DEFEATED THE META YSTRDAY WITH A SIMILIAR SITUATION...SO WL STAY WITH THAT HAND. OTHERWISE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ONLY TO CLDS AND TEMPS UNTIL W COAST TROF COMPLETES THE TREK ACRS THE ROCKIES. MDLS THEN DIVERGE GREATLY IN SOLNS AS AVN PHASES THE NRN PLNS VORT MAX WITH THE SRN QUICKER AND DIGS A SLOWER MOVG CLOSED LOW. ENSELMBLES...ETA...CANADIAN PROG THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. WL KP A SLGT CHC PCPN FOR THU ONLY TO AVOID A POSSIBLE YO-YO WITH MID SHIFT AND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY MID LVL MSTR THAT SURVIVES THE MTNS...BUT FAVOR THE WEAKER SOLNS GIVEN PAST TENDENCY OF AVN TO PHASE QUICKLY. WEEKEND TEMPS REQUIRE AN UPWARD BUMP UNDR EXPECTED RIDGING... FOLLOWED BY A SLGT DWNWD TREND FOR EARLY NXT WEEK WITH NXT TROF. .GID...NONE. 09 ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 334 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF RAIN ON IR/88D COMBO. ONE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH -RA PUSHING INLAND TO THE CSTL PLAIN...ASSOC WITH LEAD SHRT WV AND ~180KT JET DEPARTING NE STATES AND ASSOC CSTL TROF AND LOW PRES. THE OTHER AREA OF RAIN MVG ACROSS TN AND AL ASSOC WITH MDLVL LOW AND UPR 100KT JET ENERGY MVG ACROSS THE NW GMEX. A SIZEABLE BREAK IN PCPN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. EXPECTING TO SEE RAIN CONT ACROSS MUCH OF ENC (AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON 88D) UNTIL AROUND 00Z OR SO WHEN THE INITIAL LOW AND ASSOC ENERGY LIFTS NE. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FROM ABOUT MID EVENING TO AROUND 07Z...THEN THE RAIN FRM THE 2ND SYSTEM SHUD MV ACROSS THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THRU THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING THE RAIN SHUD ALL LIFT NE OF THE AREA BY AROUND 18Z OR SO. OVERALL...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM...GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE MDLDV LOW WELL TO OUR W AND N...AND BEST DIV ASSOC WITH UPR JET ENERGY STAYING TO OUR NW...EXPECTING BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN HALF OF CWA. TIMING AND DEGREE OF FORECAST POPS TRICKY GIVEN BREAK IN THE TWO AREAS OF RAIN. ATTM... PLANNING TO GO CATGRCL ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MAINLY GEARED FOR THIS EVENING'S LEFTOVER RAIN...AND LIKELY ELSEWHERE GIVEN PCPN EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. NOT EXPECTING OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH FRM CURRENT OBS...MAY EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. FOR WED...TIMING OF THE ABOVE FEATURES SUGGESTS BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS N HALF OF CWA AND OBX. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS GEARED TWRD MORNING HOURS. SUBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN TMRW AFTERNOON...BUT LOLVL SHALLOW MOISTURE-RICH LAYER SHUD KEEP A SC DECK IN PLACE THRU MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TMRW IN THE 50S. SOME SUNSHINE ON THU WITH HI PRES OVRHD. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF CSTL LOWS PROGGD TO FORM OFF THE SE COAST ON FRI. WITH THE UPR LOW PROGD TO MV ACROSS THE AREA NOT UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING...NO DOUBT WE'LL HAVE TO MAKE SVRL TWEAKS IN THE TIMING OF FEATURES...BUT OVERALL RAIN CHNC LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. 12Z GFS DEPICTING UPR LOW AND ASSOC MOISTURE MVG ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. THICKNESSES WITH THIS UPR LOW SUGGEST MAYBE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IF THE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT. MARINE: AVN AND RUC10 VERIFYING BEST WITH GALE WINDS OBSERVED AT FPSN7 AND 41004 BUOYS...SO BASED ON THEIR FCST THIS EVENING WILL EXTEND GALES N TO INCLUDE PAMLICO SOUND AND HAT TO OREGON INLET ZONE. STRONG SCA REST OF AREA. FOLLOWED ETA/AVN BLEND FOR REST OF FCST PERIOD. .MHX...GALE WARNING S OF OREGON INLET TO N OF SURF CITY AND PAMLICO SOUND. SCA S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. NP/JBM nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 127 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 ** WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ALL AREAS AS LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT PCPN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NE. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INLAND. ALONG NC COAST WILL INDICATE ONGOING RAIN TAPERING OFF TO JUST CHCS LATE THIS AFTN. TEMPS AS CURRENTLY FCST LOOK IN LINE. *** LOW PRES OFF THE GA COAST WITH COASTAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC PROGGING S/W TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTN HOURS. HENCE...LOOKS LIKE RAINS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAIN SITUATION SO NO NEED TO DEVIATE. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 AT THE COAST AND READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND. AFTN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS. MARINE: WILL RAISE GALE WARNING (30-35 KT) FOR THE WATERS CAPE FEAR N...OTHERWISE THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO GALE AT MARINE OBS TO THE S AND AS THIS LOW MOVES BY HERE THE PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER. FOR THE SRN WATERS I PLAN ON INCREASING SPEEDS TO 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WAVE SENSOR AT FRYING PAN CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY AROUND 7 FT THERE NOW AND WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. FCSTID = 30 ILM 48 43 53 39 / 50 50 30 10 LBT 43 39 51 37 / 30 50 30 10 FLO 44 41 52 38 / 30 50 30 10 MYR 48 44 53 40 / 30 50 30 10 .ILM... NC...GALE WARNING AMZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 252. SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256. PUBLIC: PJN MARINE: SRP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1015 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 14Z ANAL SHOWING LO PRES CNTRD E OF KJAX WITH CSTL TROF NNE UP TOWARD HATTERAS AND NWRD. 88D SHOWING GNRLY -RA MVG UP N THRU OUR CWA...WITH HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO OUR S. 6Z RUNS CONT TO SHOW BEST FORCING THIS AFTERNOON NR THE COAST...SO CURRENT CTGRCL POP ARRANGEMENT OF 100 S/80 N LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...RAIN ACROSS OUR N HALF OF CWA SHUD REMAIN ON THE LT SIDE REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB MUCH...AND EARLIER MOS GUIDANCE VALUES A BIT OVERDONE FOR CURRENT TIME PD...SO WL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WL ALSO TWEAK WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY TO INDICATE WINDS INCRSG THIS AFTERNOON FRM CURRENT VALUES...AS LOW PRES MVS N CLOSER TO OUR COAST. FARTHER INLAND...WL ADJUST WIND DOWNWARD...AS 6Z MESO RUNS INDICATE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUNDS...WITH GNRL 10-20 MPH FARTHER INLAND. MARINE: SEEING FREQ GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING UPSTREAM OF OUR WATERS ON NW SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH LO PROGD TO DEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND GRAD TIGHTEN SOME MORE ACROSS OUR WTRS...SHUD SEE WINDS INCRS TO 30-35 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABV 35 ACROSS OUR SRN WTRS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE THE LOOKS OF 6Z RUC10 FOR LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS...WHICH SHOWS DISTINCT AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ONE ACROSS MUCH OF ONSLOW BAY BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH GALES MVG N FROM LOOKOUT TO HATTERAS MAINLY AFTER 00Z. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO MESH GOOD WITH WHAT TYPICALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS TYPE OF LOW. HINTS OF GALES PSBL ACROSS SRN PAMLICO SOUND THIS EVENING...BUT MAY JUST HOLD THAT ZONE TO STRONG SCA AND INDICATE GALES PSBL. .MHX...GALE WARNING S OF HATTERAS. SCA SOUNDS AND N OF HAT. PETRO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC 935 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2002 LOW PRES OFF THE GA COAST WITH COASTAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC PROGGING S/W TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTN HOURS. HENCE...LOOKS LIKE RAINS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RAIN SITUATION SO NO NEED TO DEVIATE. TEMPS STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 AT THE COAST AND READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND. AFTN MAX TEMPS MAY NEED SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS. MARINE: WILL RAISE GALE WARNING (30-35 KT) FOR THE WATERS CAPE FEAR N...OTHERWISE THE FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS TO GALE AT MARINE OBS TO THE S AND AS THIS LOW MOVES BY HERE THE PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER. FOR THE SRN WATERS I PLAN ON INCREASING SPEEDS TO 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE WAVE SENSOR AT FRYING PAN CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC...BUT SEAS ARE LIKELY AROUND 7 FT THERE NOW AND WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON. FCSTID = 30 ILM 48 43 53 39 / 90 50 30 10 LBT 43 39 51 37 / 80 50 30 10 FLO 44 41 52 38 / 80 50 30 10 MYR 48 44 53 40 / 90 50 30 10 .ILM... NC...GALE WARNING AMZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 252. SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256. PUBLIC: PJN MARINE: SRP nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 730 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS FROM AROUND THE REGION...21Z RUC AND 18Z MESOETA BOTH APPEAR A BIT FAST ON MOVEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS HAVE COOLED FASTER THAN EXPECTED ALREADY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WOULD EXPECT THESE LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD EAST. WILL DROP THE TEMPS THRU THE JAMES VALLEY A BIT MORE TONIGHT. DEW POINTS FALLING AS WELL...AND AM A BIT UNSURE WRT FORMATION OF MUCH FOG TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT DROP MENTION AS YET. .ABR...NONE. MLF sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 230 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2002 PRIMARY CONCERNS CENTERED ON RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN ERODING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WITH LARGER SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE CLOUDS WERE MOVING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBILITY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAD BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG THIS MORNING. IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATED CIRCULATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING INTO WEST COAST AHEAD OF STRONG PACIFIC 300MB JET. 12Z DEC 10TH MODELS CONTINUE ADVERTISING TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...ETA SOLUTION RESEMBLES GFS WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION AND CLOSED CIRCULATION. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA AND GFS STILL MANIFESTED IN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES...WITH THE ETA CONSIDERABLY WARMER. GFS ALSO DEPICTED VERY LIGHT QPF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... WHILE ETA REMAINS DRY. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY ETA AND RUC...WHICH SUGGESTS THE UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED TONGUE OF 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BASED ON DENSE FOG OBSERVED UPSTREAM EARLIER TODAY...WE WERE CONCERNED THAT PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA ZONES COULD HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT... THIS DENSE FOG SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY CENTRAL REGION APPLIED RESEARCH PAPER 14-02...WHICH HAD SOME EXCELLENT PARAMETERS FOR DENSE FOG AT ROCHESTER MN. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON TIME OF YEAR AND RESULTANT LOW SUN ANGLE...DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE IN A HURRY TO LIFT UNTIL ABOUT NOON. THEREFORE...PLAN WILL BE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY ACROSS APPROPRIATE ZONES IN SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG APPEAR TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PASSAGE OF TROUGH ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS AND FOG FOR AWHILE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS. EVEN MORE CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE DRIZZLE. THIS DUE TO DRY LAYERS ABOVE THE CLOUDS AND BUFKIT INDICATING SOME TURBULENT MIXING IN THE CLOUD TOPS. FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS NO ICE NUCLEI BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE CLOUD TOPS AND TEMPERATURES AT THESE LEVELS GENERALLY MINUS 4C OR ABOVE. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR MAXIMUM/MINIMUM TRENDS. CURRENTLY...FORECAST HANDLES THESE TRENDS WELL...ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CHANGE FLURRIES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITY IN SOME ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPEAR REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH VALUES WEDNESDAY COULD BE TOO WARM DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. THEREFORE...REDUCED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM CURRENT FORECAST. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN...READINGS SHOULD NOT RISE OR FALL TOO MUCH DIURNALLY. THUS... DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...ENSEMBLES SUPPORTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLES SHOWED LARGE VARIABILITY IN 500MB HEIGHTS...BUT TREND APPEARS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THANKS TO MPX AND DMX FOR COORDINATION TODAY. INTERSITE GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED. THERE COULD BE SOME TWEAKS IN CLOUDS...WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE PARAMETERS BEFORE THE ZONE ISSUANCE AT ABOUT 330 PM. .LSE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY... SOUTHEAST MN ZONES...MNZ086...087...094...095. NORTHEAST IOWA ZONES...IAZ008>010...018...019...029. $$ THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 230 AM CST WED DEC 11 2002 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE TEMPS AND LOW POPS WED NIGHT AND THU... H5 PATTERN TONIGHT INDICATIVE OF AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM AND NRN STREAM. ONLY CUTOFF FEATURE TO NOTE IS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CENTRAL CONUS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WITH AN OPEN TROF EXTENDING ALONG THE PAC COAST (OUR WEATHER MAKER LATE TONIGHT AND THUS). IN THE SHORT TERM...PATTERN TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE FA WITH ARCTIC AIR WELL INTO CANADA. ETA/AVN MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT NON-EXISTENT WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN...AS IT IS DIVERGENT 24-60 HRS OUT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AVN STILL INCONSISTENT RESOLVING THE CLOSED LOW THURSDAY ACROSS THE LWR MISSOURI VALLEY. ETA CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH AN OPEN WAVE SCENARIO. AT THE SFC...PESKY LL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO BACK WEST TOWARD THE FA. HIGH RES ETA HALTED THE WWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WELL EAST OF THE FA...HOWEVER RUC INDICATING THIS ARRIVING ON OUR DOORSTEP BY 09Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG E OF A LINE FROM ONL TO BBW FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR THIS AT ISSUANCE FOR INCLUSION IN NEW PACKAGE. .TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPR TROF APPROACHES FA THROUGH AFTN. WEAK CAA ASSOC WITH THE TROF...COUPLED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RISE SOMEWHAT. MET NUMBERS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH ...SO WILL COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET NUMBERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPR 40S NERN ZONES TO NEAR 55 ACROSS THE SW. OPEN WAVE REACHES WRN FA TONIGHT BY 12Z IN THE AVN (06Z WITH THE ETA) MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE HERE. WITH WRLY AND NWRLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY...NO LL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MID AND UPPR LVL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT PER THE AVN AND SEEMS OVERDONE. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ALSO...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN ZONES...AND NEVER REALLY BECOMES ORGANIZED UNTIL UPPR LOW CLOSES OVER SRN KS. BY THEN...THREAT OF PCPN IS E OF AREA. AM LEANING TOWARD A DRY FCST IN THE WEST WITH 20 POPS (ALL SNOW) CONFINED TO THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF CLEARS FA BY MIDDAY (AVN SLON) WITH FA SEEING GOOD SUBSIDENCE INTO THE AFTN HRS. LACK OF CLOUDINESS WITH ETA SOLN EVIDENT IN MET NUMBERS. THESE STILL SEEM TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE. H5 HTS RISE OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. .FRIDAY AND BEYOND...PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL WITH PAC AIR OVR RUNNING THE ROCKIES. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN FOR US WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS PREDOMINATING. JUDGING BY H85 TEMP TRENDS...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMUP FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. NEXT PAC TROF COMES ASHORE SAT NIGHT. UPPR PATTERN BECOMES SWRLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPG TROF. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT WX MAKER MON/TUE...BRINGING TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. NEW MRF ADVERTISING NEXT OPEN WAVE TO TRAVERSE SRN KS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE...DRY FCST WILL BE CONTINUED. .LBF...NONE. CLB ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 326 AM EST WED DEC 11 2002 WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. MODELS AGREEING ON MOVING UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST. MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE SWITCHING TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MODEL QPF AND NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST PA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY ICING. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALTHOUGH MOST SECTIONS RECEIVE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ICING, SOME SECTIONS MAY SEE 1/2" AMOUNTS PER QFPS. THEN HAVE TO DEAL WITH SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, EXPECT A MIX INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SWITCHING TO SNOW. FOR NOW BELIEVE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA FOR ICE OR SNOW. SO, UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES, WILL UPGRADE PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN NY TO WARNING AND EXPAND ADVISORY ONE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD. COORD...BUF...ALY..CTP. RAM .BGM... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-PAZ038-039. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 330 AM CST WED DEC 11 2002 SPLIT UPR FLOW NOW ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA...WITH ONE JET ACRS THE SRN STATES AND ANOTHER ACRS CANADA. THAT WL LEAVE THE AREA BTWN SIG WX SYSTEMS. NRN JET WL CUT OFF THE FEED OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABV NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS FCST CYCLE. SRN JET WL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE S OF THE AREA...SO NO SIG PCPN EXPECTED. SHALLOW MOISTURE FLOWING NNEWD TOWARD THE AREA CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE ST DECK ACRS THE PLAINS YDA. AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YR... ST EXPANDED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS UNDER THE ST YDA WERE ONLY ARND 40...WHILE SURROUNDING AREAS WHICH GOT SUN WARMED TO ARND 50. CLDS WL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A KEY ROLE IN MAX TEMPS ACRS MY FCST AREA TDA. RUC/ETA SIMILAR IN HANDLING 1000-900 MB RH...AND USED THAT TO BRING ST INTO THE AREA TDA. EXPECT ST TO SPREAD ACRS THE WRN PART OF MY FCST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN EWD PROGRESS SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTN. ST ACRS THE W MAY THIN/DEVELOP SOME BREAKS DURING THE AFTN...BUT DEC SUN WON/T BE ABLE TO BURN IT OFF. THAT WL HOLD TEMPS ACRS THE W DOWN. WENT WITH TEMPS AOB GUID IN THE W AND AOA GUID IN THE E. EXPECT ANY BREAKS TO FILL BACK IN AND ST TO RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA TNGT. WK LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. TEMPS WL PROBABLY NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TNGT...BUT COULD GET BLO FREEZING AND RESULT IN SOME FZDZ. ADDED MENTION OF SUCH TO THE FCST. WL LET LATER SHIFTS DETERMINE WHETHER THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE. EXPECT LGT PCPN TO LINGER INTO EARLY THU. BY THU AFTN...ETA SHOWED SOME DECR IN LOW-LEVEL RH...SO THINK CHC OF PCPN WL END FROM W-E. CLDS... HOWEVER...SHOULD STICK ARND ALL DAY. WITH MY FCST AREA BTWN THE MAIN BRANCHES OF THE JET...THINK CLDS WL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DISOLODGE ONCE THEY ARE IN PLACE. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF QUIET THOUGH RATHER DREARY WX. CONTD TO MENTION CHC OF FLURRIES ON FRI AS TAIL OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV BRUSHES ACRS THE AREA. NEXT CHC OF PCPN LIKELY TO COME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK AS INTENSE PAC JET WORKS INTO THE WRN STATES. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE FLOW LIKELY TO BEGIN OCCURRING BY THAT TIME...WITH JET HELPING TO DEVELOP BROAD TROF OVER THE W. THE SW UPR FLOW E OF THE TROF COULD GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN ACRS MY FCST AREA. NEW MEX POPS INCR ALREADY TUE. BROAD UPR TROF WL MAKE TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...SO LEFT FCST FOR TUE DRY FOR NOW. GFS CONTD ALONG WITH THE SAME TREND IT HAS BEEN FCSTG FOR DAYS. UPR HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY PROGGED TO RISE OVER THE ERN PAC. THAT SHARPENS THE UPR TROF AS IT MVS EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL STATES...AND LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG STORM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A FEW DAYS BEFORE XMAS. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT THAT OVERALL CHG TO THE PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THAT/S A LONG WAY OFF...OTHER THAN THE PCPN CHC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WK... IT APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT CHC OF SIG PCPN ACRS MY FCST AREA. .GRB...NONE. SKOWRONSKI WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI 1045 AM EST WED DEC 11 2002 CHAFF THE PREDOMINANT ECHO ON KBYX RADAR OVER OUR GULF COASTAL WATERS MOVING INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY. STILL THINK THAT IS REASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA SHOWS NO PRECIP TODAY...BUT RUC MM5 AND EVEN GFS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW A SOME EXTREMELY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. NO UPDATES PLANNED. .MIA...NONE. $$ HANDEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1050 AM EST WED DEC 11 2002 WILL CONT WITH CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. UPDATE TO DECREASE HIGH TEMPS AND UP POPS THIS AFT AND TONIGHT. PRECIP ARRIVING. MOSTLY FZRA. MODELS MORE IN AGREEMENT NOW WITH DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STORM. PRECIP VALUES ALSO CLOSER WITH AVN UPPING AMOUNTS TO BE MUCH CLOSER TO ETA. WSW WILL BE UPDATED FOR HIGHER QPS AND CTA FOR POWER LINES. TEMPS WELL BELOW MOS ATTM. SOME TEENS STILL BEING REPORTED IN VALLEYS ACROSS TWIN TIERS. THIS WILL ONLY MEAN THE FZRA WILL LAST LONGER. BOTTOM LINE IS LONG TERM FZRA EVENT FOR SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA. QUESTION FOR THIS AFT WILL BE HOW MUCH FZRA FOR TWIN TIERS. MAY NEED TO UP ADV TO WARN. ALSO HOW MUCH FZRA WILL FALL IN FING LAKES TO MOHAWK VALLEY FOR UP TO ADV. TAC PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS... WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. MODELS AGREEING ON MOVING UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST. MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE SWITCHING TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MODEL QPF AND NATIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST PA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME HEAVY ICING. SO CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALTHOUGH MOST SECTIONS RECEIVE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ICING, SOME SECTIONS MAY SEE 1/2" AMOUNTS PER QFPS. THEN HAVE TO DEAL WITH SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. FARTHER NORTH, EXPECT A MIX INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SWITCHING TO SNOW. FOR NOW BELIEVE AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA FOR ICE OR SNOW. SO, UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES, WILL UPGRADE PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN NY TO WARNING AND EXPAND ADVISORY ONE TIER OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD. COORD...BUF...ALY..CTP. RAM .BGM... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NYZ062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-PAZ038-039. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1130 AM EST WED DEC 11 2002 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TEMPS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRN LAKES LINGERING IN TRANQUIL REGIME BTWN SRN BRANCH H5 LOW/SHRTWV OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN STREAM WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW PREVAILED BTWN RDG OVER THE CNTRL LAKES AND 998 MB LO OVER MANITOBA. VIS LOOP SHOWED LO CLD/FOG...EXTENDING INTO FAR SW UPR MI FROM LARGER PATCH OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH STRATUS/BR OVER MN/IA...WAS ERODING WITH INCREASED DIURNAL MIXING. 12Z KGRB SNDG AND FCST SNDGS WERE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM YESTERDAY WITH 950-925 MB TEMPS NEAR 3C. EVEN THROUGH ETA 925-950 MB RH FCSTS FURTHER MOISTENING INTO SW UPR MI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT ST/BR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DELAYED TIL AFT SUNSET...PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA...PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH THE WARMEST AIR OVER SRN UPR MI...WHERE SNOWCOVER IS LACKING. DOWNSLOPE SW FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST READINGS IN FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS MARQUETTE WHERE 16Z TEMP WAS ALREADY AT 43 F. EVEN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EXPECT THAT ANOTHER RECORD HIGH IS IN STORE FOR KMQT (OLD RECORD 41 FROM 1998 AND 2001). WITH CURRENT FCST ON TRACK WITH TEMPS...UPDATE PLANNED MAINLY TO FRESHEN WORDING. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi