AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 259 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING CENTROID OF UPPER HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM...WITH WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY PLUME NOTED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAK STEERING FLOW... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS NORTHEASTERN PLAINS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND AIDING IN THE CONVECTION FIRING ATTM. TONIGHT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SOLAR HEATING...AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS...AS UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY STORMS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND WILL GO WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE MTS. WITH SW STEERING FLOW... STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUDS... HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. -MW .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THEN REFORMS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLE AROUND THE EDGES. MOIST PLUME FROM THE SOUTH APPEARS TO HOLD TOGETHER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORT WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS UVV IS ENHANCED AND IMPROVES COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES. TIMING THESE LITTLE RIPPLES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT. MODELS IN SOME AGREEEMENT WITH A BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. USED NAM TIMING TO ADJUST POPS, WINDS AND TEMPS. MOISTURE HANGS IN WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY TROF IN THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE REFORMS BUT MORE TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY. TEMPS WARM AND MOIST PLUME GETS SOME HELP FROM THE WESTERN TROF TO KEEP THE DIURNAL CONVECTION MACHINE GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/21 co WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 905 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION...RUC AND WATER VAPOR STLT SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE EXTREME NE GULF ALONG WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE/ FROM THE GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE WEAK TROUGHINESS PERSISTS FROM THE GULF TO THE ATLANTIC...WITH IT'S BROAD AXIS ABOUT MIDWAY THROUGH THE CWFA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE STATE WITH LARGE AREAS OF PCPN OVER AND OFFSHORE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FL. THE CURRENT PUBLIC ZONES GENERALLY HANDLE THIS...HOWEVER. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ZONES WHICH NOW FOCUS ON MAINLY EVENING CONVECTION. WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND ALSO TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THESE AREAS. && .MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND COASTAL DATA SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST AND WILL ISSUE THE NEXT NONE BY 10 PM...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RKR fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 958 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... OLD SURFACE TROF EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL AT MID MORNING WITH ENE WINDS AT DAB AND SE WINDS NEAR THE CAPE. LARGE SWATH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS C/S SECTIONS OF CWA BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SO FAR. RUC INDICATES 95KT JET MAX ALONG THE NC COAST THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF FL IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD...PROVIDING GOOD ASCENT OVER EC FL. MORNING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL PRESENT AND RELATIVELY COOL AT MID LEVELS. DESPITE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRING EARLIER TODAY...HEATING WILL BE RESTRICTED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY RAIN. IF ANY AREAS MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH CLOUDS AND GET BETTER HEATING...STORMS COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. GIVEN ABOVE CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY WX CONCERN EXPECTED TO BE URBAN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AREAS PLAGUED WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LOCATIONS WHERE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS AND ZONES THIS MORNING. && .MARINE...BOUY 41009 SHOWING 4FT SEAS ALREADY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN SWELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SEA HEIGHTS UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE. THE HAZARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GLITTO/MOSES fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 950 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT TSTMS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF 0000 UTC UPPER AIR DATA PAINTS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY. WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY EVIDENT ROUGHLY ALONG I-70, WITH 16C+ DEW POINTS POOLED JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY. WHILE CONVERGENCE IS STILL WEAK ALONG BOUNDARY, ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. WEAK 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTION, DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ANY RIPPLES IN UPPER FLOW IN EITHER PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR LOOP, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEARLY NEGATIVE FACTORS ALOFT. SUSPECT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER DEVELOPING OVER OR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WITH SOME SMALL TENDENCY TO FOR WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK . ONLY QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH TO EXTEND PRECIPITATION THREAT. CLEARLY STORMS THIS EVENING HAD TROUBLE REACHING HWY 400, AND GIVEN 850MB BOUNDARY, LIMITING THREAT TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400 SEEMS PRUDENT. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE TO AREAS NORTH OF KICT OVERNIGHT. WILL TWEAK GRIDS AND GET UPDATE OUT IN A BIT. HAVE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED 0000 UTC NAM/LATEST RUC BOTH OF WHICH HAVE INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS. -HOWERTON .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED CHANCES THIS EVE THEN CHANCES AGAIN FRI NIGHT. THIS EVE/TONIGHT: SATELLITE SHOWS MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CEN KS AT THIS TIME, WITH SOME ACCAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA, SO EVEN WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL SHEAR, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT. COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP IN CEN KS THIS EVE, IF CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SO WILL MENTION A SMALL POP IN CEN KS FOR THIS. LACK OF ANY SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP MAIN OVERNIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NEBRASKA. COULD SEE ANOTHER MCS MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND COME TO KS TO DIE BY EARLY WED. WED: COULD SEE REMNANTS FOR ANOTHER MCS DIMINISH OR DIE ACROSS NRN KS EARLY WED SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP ALONG CEN KS BORDERS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO DIE IN SWRN KS. SEE BOTH THESE THESE SYSTEMS DYING BEFORE THEY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SRN KS SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THIS AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. MID LEVEL WARMING MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS VIRTUALLY KILLING ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, EVEN WITH A POSSIBLE MCV LURKING ACROSS THE AREA. THU-FRI: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT STARTING ON FRI, ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NRN KS BY FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IT, IN PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH WITH GFS KEEPING IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW, AS MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO HOLD EVEN WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LATER RUNS. FRI NIGHT: RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA ACTUALLY DRIFTING INTO THE NRN SECTIONS OF KS BY FRI NIGHT. 850H WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, AS RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SAGS INTO THIS AREA AS WELL. ALL THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN/CEN KS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY JUST BRUSH CEN KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS UT INTO NE KS BY SAT MORNING. SAT-MON: UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MID LEVEL TEMPS AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS, KEEPING ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST PICTURE, SO MAINLY WARM AND DRY WITH 90S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 95 71 97 / 10 10 5 5 HUTCHINSON 68 96 70 98 / 10 10 5 5 NEWTON 69 95 70 97 / 10 10 5 5 ELDORADO 68 94 70 95 / 10 10 5 5 WINFIELD-KWLD 67 95 70 96 / 10 10 5 5 RUSSELL 70 97 69 98 / 10 10 5 5 GREAT BEND 69 96 69 99 / 10 10 5 5 SALINA 71 97 71 99 / 20 10 5 5 MCPHERSON 69 96 70 98 / 10 10 5 5 COFFEYVILLE 67 92 70 94 / 10 10 5 5 CHANUTE 68 92 70 94 / 10 10 5 5 IOLA 67 92 70 94 / 10 10 5 5 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KETCHAM/ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 950 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... 00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE CONUS. SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO/DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS BRINGING A TRANQUIL EVNG TO THE CWA. SFC DWPTS UNDER THE HI AND ACRS NE MN INTO THE U.P. AS LO AS THE 30S (SAW 01Z DWPT 37...DWPTS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE E PER FIRE WX OBS AT SENEY...DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LAKE...ELKHORN)...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF LLVL MSTR IS APRNT WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60 AS CLOSE AS NW WI. AN AREA OF MID CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND A WEAK SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF IS PRESENT OVER NW WI AND CLOSE TO IWD. MOST OF THIS CLD APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO STAY SW OF THE WI BORDER...BUT THE NRN EDGE APPEARS WL IMPACT IMT-MNM. ON A SIDE NOTE...A LARGE FIRE NOTED OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK NIPIGON. SMOKE PLUME HAS DRIFTED SSEWD INTO ERN LK SUP AND MIGHT MOVE OVER THE ERN CWA OVERNGT. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. LATEST RUC H7 RH FCST SHOWS BAND OF HIER RH DRIFTING SEWD ALG THE WI BORDER...CONSISTENT WITH STLT TRENDS...BEFORE SINKING TO THE S LATER AT NGT ONCE SFC HI CENTER TO THE NW PROGGED TO BLD OVER THE FA AND AXIS OF H7-5 FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE S. WL GO WITH SCT-BKN AC ALG THE WI BORDER THRU THIS EVNG...THEN MOCLR. ALTHOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI CENTER LATER AT NGT WL TEND TO PUSH THE HIER LLVL MSTR TO THE S...WL BUMP UP FCST LO TEMPS A BIT OVER THE WI BORDER A BIT TO REFLECT THE HIER DWPTS/SCT-BKN CLDS THRU MIDNGT AND FCST HIER PWAT THRU 12Z. BUT WL ADJUST LO TEMPS DOWN OVER THE INTERIOR ERN ZNS WHERE AXIS OF DRIER AIR (LOWER DWPTS/PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCH) WL BE OVHD WHEN HI CENTER/LGT WINDS ARRIVE LATE. PUSHED LOWS INTO THE UPR 30S OVER INTERIOR LUCE COUNTY...WHERE SOME FROST PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DESPITE SHORT NGT. COORDINATED WITH APX. KC .LONG TERM... RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS ON THU ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WED NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE I300-I315K SURFACES AND THIS WOULD BE WITH A WARM FRONT. THE MOISTURE ON THESE SURFACES MOVES EAST ON THU. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT EFFECT OF NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT I WILL TALK ABOUT NEXT COMES IN BY THU EVENING AND TIMING OF THESE IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE AREA...COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. EASIEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS POINT IS TO BROADBRUSH AND PUT LOW CHANCE POPS ON THU AND FRI FOR THE CWA. NAM ALSO SHOWING A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SE AND COMBINING WITH THE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST TO CREATE A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT FLATTENS THE RIDGE ON FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE CWA ON FRI AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNS THU NIGHT AND FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT FRI NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHICH WAS IN THE EARLIER FORECASTS. NOT BUYING THE STRONGER AND FASTER NAM SOLUTION WITH THIS TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS MUCH AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION BETTER WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES NOT BRING AS COLD OF AIR IN. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN HOW STRONG THE RIDGE HAS BEEN AND FEEL THE NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UNDERDONE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TOO COLD AND USED 850 MB TEMPERATURES MIXED TO THE SFC FOR HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE 40S. ONLY THING GOING AGAINST IT IS THE NIGHT IS SHORT. LIKED THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THERE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON THAT. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHING ON THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING BACK IN FOR SUN. A SHORTWAVE THEN EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND AFFECTS THE AREA ON MON. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY ARE NOT TOO NOISY. WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE WARM FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GFS GENERATED SOME QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE IN EARLIER RUNS...NOW IT IS DRY. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS FROM SUN NIGHT YET SINCE IT SEEMS THAT WHEN WE HAVE WARM FRONTS COME THROUGH...IT ENDS UP PRECIPITATING WELL BEFORE THE MODELS INDICATE. ALSO WANT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST SINCE HAD LOW CHANCE POPS IN THERE YESTERDAY. AFTER THE WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH...IT MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BASED ON 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PACKING FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS AND STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THICKNESS VALUES GET UP ABOVE 579 DM WHICH COULD INDICATE A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...SO KEPT MON AND TUE DRY EVEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA. THINK THE RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE. WILL BE VERY WARM ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS AND THINK WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 20-23C AND THIS WOULD GIVE ME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MICHELS && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1140 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC SW TO GREEN BAY. THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAGINAW BAY AREA SSW TOWARD BATTLE CREEK AND KALAMAZOO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AROUND ALMA AND ST JOHNS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY COME AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL REALLY LIMIT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ONCE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS ARE ONLY AROUND 60. A MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING... AND LATEST RUC... HAS CAPES CLIMBING TO ONLY ABOUT 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY IN THE FAR SERN CWFA AND LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ETA IS STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAS DEW POINTS HITTING 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO HIGH. SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACTUALLY GENERATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT ATTM THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. THERE'S A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH NOW... SO WE'LL ACTUALLY HAVE NVA AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS GOING THROUGH. THE MID LEVELS DO COOL OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH H7 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 8C TO 4C AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING. THIS GIVES US A WINDOW OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE... SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SE CWFA AROUND LAN AND JXN BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THIS IS WHERE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN ACTUALLY BE GENERATED. IN FACT WE MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA AS NNW FLOW OFF THE LAKE DEVELOPS. LATEST RUC SHOWS 925 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WHITEHALL TO MANISTEE. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD LATER BUT WE'LL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PART OF THE LAKE. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WHITEHALL TO MANISTEE. && $$ MEADE mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1125 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... 12Z WV IMAGERY/H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING H5 TROFS JUST OFF WEST COAST AND OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH THE EASTERN AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE MIDDLE U.S. FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF MCS OVERNIGHT IN NE MT/NW ND STILL FIRING ALONG ND/SD BORDER. CLOSER TO HOME... INL SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY UP...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT IS RIGHT UNDER A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE AFTERNOON TEMPS... INL SOUNDING SHOWS +14C H85 TEMPS MIXING DOWN TO +27C/82F AT THE SURFACE. AS THIS SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION... THIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COOL FRONT WILL TEMPER THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP QUITE FINE. WILL DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS AS INL SOUNDING/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE BONE DRY AND SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS THINGS DRY. NRLY/NERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BECOMING SERLY OVER THE WRN UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES NECESSARY. WOOD && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DRIFT NEARLY ON TOP OF UPR MI LATER TONIGHT. WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS UPR 30S ALONG WITH LOWER PWAT MIN AXIS AFFECTING AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME READINGS FALLING TOWARD 40F AWAY FM LAKES...BUT ONE OF THE SHORTEST NIGHTS OF YEAR WILL WORK AGAINST ADDITIONAL COOLING. WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE WHILE RETURN FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 TAKES SHAPE OVR N MS RIVER VALLEY INTO FAR W FRINGES OF UPR LAKES. JUST SHOWED INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVR W HALF OF CWA ON WED. NAM AND GFS DIFFER TO EXTENT OF PCPN ON WED NIGHT AS ELEVATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT INTO N WI/W UPR MI WITH NAM NOT SHOWING ANY PCPN UNTIL THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS IDEA BROUGHT FORTH BY GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS/TS COULD DEVELOP OVR MN INTO NW WI/W UPR MI AFT MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AREA IS ALSO ON FRINGE OF BULGE OF VERY WARM H85 TEMPS (AOA +20C) WHICH GIVES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CREDENCE TO GIVE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE GFS/CANADIAN SHOWS BY 12Z THU. EVEN IF THAT SOLN DOES NOT VERIFY...KEPT SMALL CHANCES IN FOR W THIRD OF CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO BETTER THERMODYNAMICS. THU...TRICKY FOR BOTH PCPN CHANCES AND MAX TEMPS. ANY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY FADE QUICKLY AS OVERALL VERY WARM/CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REBUILDS WITH H7 TEMPS SURGING TO +14C AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +22C BY AFTN OFF GFS/NAM/UKMET. TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCES FOR WEST HALF CWA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO BETTER TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION. DO NOT EXPECT SIG CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST INTO AFTN. BASED ON A COMPROMISE BTWN FULL SUNSHINE AND LITTLE SUNSHINE (BOTH UNLIKELY) CAME UP WITH MAX TEMPS INTO LWR 90S FOR THU AFTN OVR W HALF...WITH MID 80S AWAY FM LK MI OVR E HALF. IF S FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH...MID 90S AT DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS FM ONTONAGON TO MARQUETTE WOULD BE LIKELY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID 90S IF NAM IS RIGHT AND NO CLOUDS ARE AROUND TO START DAY. THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC/H85 FRONT SAGS INTO UPR MI IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE OVR MANITOBA/ONTARIO HELPING TO LOWER HEIGHTS. BEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY OVR S HALF OF CWA AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHER POPS (50) WERE PLACED. LATEST GFS AGREES WELL WITH CANADIAN AND INDICATES FRONT/PCPN CLEARS AREA BY LATE FRI EVENING. QUICKER TREND IN ENDING PCPN SHOWS UP IN LAST FEW RUNS AS WELL. ONLY KEPT SHRA/TS IN FOR AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE AFT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WENT WITH NO WX. SAT/SUN/MON...WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS UPR LAKES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT AS SFC/H85 WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK N ACROSS UPR LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT FOR MON AS H7 TEMPS RISE TO +12C. H85 TEMPS RISE AS WELL...BACK TOWARD +22C. ANOTHER HOT DAY LOOKS IN OFFING. NO CHANGES HERE WITH MAX TEMPS FCST IN THE UPR 80S WHICH IS WELL ABOVE LATEST EXTENDED GFS MOS. COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS. JLA && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN RATHER QUITE NICELY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING ON/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT H8-H7 THETA-E GRADIENT...IN A DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME HELP ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO OUR E THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE REAL ONSET OF THE COLD AND DRY PUSH. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME MARINE FOG AND STRATUS (SEEN ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY) TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER. EXPECT THIS TO ERODE AWAY BY NOON. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT/SFC CONVERGENCE RUNNING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN LATEST HI RESOLUTION MODEL DEPICTIONS...BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SE CWA BY 19Z OR SO. MODIFYING THE 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH A VERY GENEROUS 85/62 PARCEL YIELDS 1000J/KG CAPE WITH WET BULBS DOWN TO 10.1 KFT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...LESS THAN DESIRABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THEREFORE...AM JUST EXPECTING SCATTERED AND WEAK GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE MUCH MORE STABLE AIR AND DEEP LAYER H8-H5 SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES THE AREA. LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT TOO...AS H9-H8 WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS...OF WHICH WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO 20-25KT TO THE SFC WITH MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD...BUT WILL ADD IN THE REMAINDER OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES. UPDATE OUT AROUND 11 AM. SMD && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 DISCUSSION...FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL US...AND TROFFING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE MOMENT...THAT TROFFING CONSISTS OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE LAKES REGION TODAY/TONIGHT WILL ACT OPEN UP THE LOW AND RE-ESTABLISH IT/S CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES. SAID SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SUPERIOR...THRU THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WX THREAT IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT. THUS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. MODELS...NO DIFFERENCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE NOTED. TODAY...GIVEN FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IT/S DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT BEFORE IT/S OUT OF THE PICTURE. THUS MAIN FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING ELEVATED GETTING GOING IN THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL THE MODELS...GFS/NAM/RUC AND EVEN THE NGM... GENERATE AT LEAST TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOP...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TOP OF 750MB MOIST LAYER DESTABILIZES THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION CENTERED AT 650MB WHEN COMPARING 00Z GRB TO KINL RAOBS. BUT IT/S DIFFICULT SEEING ANYTHING ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD FOR NOW. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING A WELL-DEFINED MCV ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... BUT SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM DO NOT SUPPORT A FEATURE THIS STRONG. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS UP TO THE VERY LAST MINUTE...AS OF NOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCY POPS FOR THE MORNING... LINGERING INTO VERY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SE. WITH CONVECTION ELEVATED AND ONLY 500-750J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK OFF OF...SVR APPEARS UNLIKELY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 70S NW...TO MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID AFTERNOON...A DEEP MIXED LAYER COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND 950MB WINDS OF 25-30KT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO PERHAPS EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED FOR SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THRU METRO DETROIT AT 00Z. WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE EVENING WITH 950MB WINDS 25-35KT AND COLD ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM...BUT NO NEED TO FOR ANY EVENING PRECIP. 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... LAKE HURON BY WED EVENING...AND THE EASTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY AND STEADILY BUILDING ALOFT THRU THESE PERIODS...WITH RESULTING DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND A BONE-DRY AIRMASS. 850-500MB RH LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...THOUGH STARTING TO REBOUND JUST A BIT LATE WED NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW GETS ORGANIZED INTO THE NW LAKES REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEGLIGIBLE CU POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY. SO ALL 3 PERIODS SHOULD BE BASICALLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR SOME WARM ADVECTION/CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF CIRRUS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK COMFORTABLE...70S MOST EVERYWHERE. WED NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS...WITH NEGLIGIBLE WINDS COMPARED TO TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT...LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. THURSDAY...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW INITIALLY NOT MOIST...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP CLOSER TO UPSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS ONLY APPROACHING UPPER MS VALLEY/FAR WESTERN SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH WITH A WEE BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS...OTHER THAN TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN EASTERN UPPER THU NIGHT PER COORD WITH MQT. ZOLTOWSKI && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 900 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PRECIP CHANCES SLIM TONIGHT WITH GENERAL RIDGING EXCEPT FOR WEST..BUT MAIN LAYER WARM ADVECTION ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC OVER NW MN. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN WEST AND FAR SOUTH BUT ONLY 20 PCT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE WARMING FOR WED NIGHT AND THU..SEEMS LIKE FORECAST 850 TEMPS AND 1000-500 THICKNESS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME MID 90S PARTS OF SOUTH. WILL OF COURSE DEPEND GREATLY ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION WED NIGHT..BUT PRETTY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVING IN FOR THURSDAY POSSIBLY CAPPING OFF CONVECTION FOR MOST OF DAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTH. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ JPR mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 313 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) A PERSISTENT NELY FLOW THROUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PWATS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH IN THE WAKE OF A VORT TROUGH PULLING E ACROSS AL/GA. E COAST MEAN TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN THE WRN PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND/MOVE E WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED EVENING TSRA IN NERN PORTIONS OF CWFA PER 18Z RUC FORECAST. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD AS WILL THE OVERALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE. PLENTY OF HAZY SKIES WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DOCKET AS WIND FIELDS THROUGH 10K FEET STAY QUITE LIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) MID LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NERN OKLAHOMA. THE E COAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GIVING US THE SUNNY DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS ALSO SHIFTS EWD AND WILL EXTEND ALONG THE OUTER CAROLINA BANKS INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NERN GULF AND THEN WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE ONLY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALONG WITH PW'S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY LATE FRIDAY THE GFS WOBBLES A 500 MB LOW BACK OVER NORTH FLORIDA BUT QUICKLY FILLS THE LOW ON SUNDAY AND THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AGAIN. GFS INDICATES INCREASED PW'S(1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE) THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO WARRANT 20 TO 30 POPS WITH THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR COOL NIGHTS WILL COME TO AN END AS MAV GUIDANCE BRINGS OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.(15) && .AVIATION... PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST FOR GROUND SENSIBLE TERMINAL VISIBILITIES WITH HAZY CONDITIONS ALOFT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO MIX WITH THE HAZE FROM 09-13Z WITH SOME LOCATIONS(MAINLY KGWO) DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE... A WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 35-4500 FEET SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 66 93 68 95 / 10 0 0 10 MERIDIAN 64 93 66 95 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 40/15 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1138 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE #3... HAD TO BACK OFF MY OPTIMISM A BIT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. HAD TO PUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CHAUTAUQUA...MONROE...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES WHERE I TOOK IT OUT EARLIER. && .UPDATE #2... THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED FOR MANY HOURS HAS DISSIPATED EVEN MORE THAN DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE. WE HAVE HAD TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BUT WILL STILL LEAVE A CHANCE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 40 TO 60 POPS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ONLY LIGHTNING LEFT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OTTAWA RIVER MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF ALL ZONES BUT IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS. ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. && .UPDATE... LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. ALMOST NO LIGHTNING STRIKES LEFT AND IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE IS DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL LOWER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO 40 POPS AND TAKE OUT THE LIGHTNING THREAT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL GO CLOSER TO MET MOS WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN DROP BACK TO SCATTERED SHRA EARLY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WED NIGHT'S LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SAT/SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/AND BEYOND)... SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONT WILL ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR...THEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES AND BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN JET FAR TO THE NORTH AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP. THE STAGE IS DEFINITELY BEING SET FOR VERY WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD BASED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE JET WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. ENSEMBLE MODELS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE H5 RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE TEMPS AND POSITION OF THE UNDERLYING H8 PARAMETERS. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... WHILE H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 17-19 C. AGAIN...1 STD ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT...SFC MAX TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE HEAT...PW'S ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY SO GENERALLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE INFERRED AS WELL. THE WEEK OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY TODAYS CPC 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP FORECASTS WHICH BOTH INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DEPARTURES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CPC FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK. IN SHORT...NEXT WEEK HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING VERY WARM... AND POSSIBLY VERY HUMID AS WELL. ENJOY. && .AVIATION UPDATE... THE INITIAL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THE FRONT AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE...AM NOW EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR REAL CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA THAT IS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO. A SECONDARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE H8 THERMAL PACKING...IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CONVECTION IS OCCURING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE RUC40 IS FORECASTING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE ART TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE CONVECTION PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG FREE/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATES...SAGE SHORT TERM...HIBBERT LONG ERM...HIBBERT/RSH AVIATION UPDATE...RSH NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 938 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE #2... THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED FOR MANY HOURS HAS DISSIPATED EVEN MORE THAN DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE. WE HAVE HAD TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BUT WILL STILL LEAVE A CHANCE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 40 TO 60 POPS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE ONLY LIGHTNING LEFT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OTTAWA RIVER MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF ALL ZONES BUT IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS. ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. && .UPDATE... LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. ALMOST NO LIGHTNING STRIKES LEFT AND IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE IS DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL LOWER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO 40 POPS AND TAKE OUT THE LIGHTNING THREAT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WILL GO CLOSER TO MET MOS WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN DROP BACK TO SCATTERED SHRA EARLY OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINT POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WED NIGHT'S LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SAT/SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/AND BEYOND)... SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONT WILL ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR...THEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES AND BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN JET FAR TO THE NORTH AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP. THE STAGE IS DEFINITELY BEING SET FOR VERY WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD BASED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE JET WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH SO SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. ENSEMBLE MODELS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE H5 RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE TEMPS AND POSITION OF THE UNDERLYING H8 PARAMETERS. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK... WHILE H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 17-19 C. AGAIN...1 STD ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT...SFC MAX TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE HEAT...PW'S ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY SO GENERALLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE INFERRED AS WELL. THE WEEK OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY TODAYS CPC 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP FORECASTS WHICH BOTH INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DEPARTURES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CPC FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK. IN SHORT...NEXT WEEK HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING VERY WARM... AND POSSIBLY VERY HUMID AS WELL. ENJOY. && .AVIATION UPDATE... THE INITIAL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THE FRONT AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE...AM NOW EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR REAL CONVECTION. THE ONLY AREA THAT IS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO. A SECONDARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE H8 THERMAL PACKING...IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CONVECTION IS OCCURING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE RUC40 IS FORECASTING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE ART TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE CONVECTION PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIG FREE/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. $$ UPDATES...SAGE SHORT TERM...HIBBERT LONG ERM...HIBBERT/RSH AVIATION UPDATE...RSH NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 920 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .DISCUSSION... CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A RAPID WARMUP. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST BASED ON MESOETA AND RUC CONSENSUS. GSO SNDG STILL SHOWS ENOUGH MSTR TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND -3 IN THE TRIAD AS COLD POOL REMAINS ALOFT. LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO THROW IN ISOLD PRECIP OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE EAST. IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AFTER 2 TO 3 PM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED MAINLY BY WARMING TREND TODAY INTO WED THEN SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THU. TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION EARLY TODAY DIMINISHES WITH WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH IN VICINITY BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH H5 SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE WEST LESS THAN 20% FOR NOW AND LET DAY CREW ANALYZE 12Z UPPER AIR AND ASSESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS TODAY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MON MAX TEMPS. TONIGHT...WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT AIRMASS TOO STABLE AND MOISTURE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE POPS LESS THAN 20%. MIN TEMPS 61-65. WED/WED NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES REGION MAINLY AFTER 18Z. DEEP W-NW FLOW PROCEEDING FRONT WILL LIMIT/DETER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION. MOS POPS AOB 20%. HOWEVER...FRONT ENTERS/CROSSES REGION DURING MAX HEATING AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-6.5 C/KM. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 30% POPS ACROSS AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW...AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SE. NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WED (87-91) AT THIS TIME. THU...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. IN ADDITION... SURFACE-850 NE FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO AREA. THUS MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED HIGH TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAX TEMP FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD LOW LEVEL THICKNESS/MAX TEMP SCHEME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SE COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF REGION SHOULD BE DRY LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SCENARIO THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED A FEW DAYS AGO. IF GFS SCENARIO REALIZED...CENTRAL NC WILL BE WETTER AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER CONSENSUS HAS LEANED MORE TOWARD ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THUS...KEPT EXTENDED DRY BUT DID LOWER MAX TEMPS FRI-SUN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVIATION... HIGH CROSSOVER VALUE WILL KEEP FOG MARGINAL (VFR/MVFR) THIS MORNING...DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE...STAGNANT AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE BACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LEE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS THUS EXPECT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PREDOMINANTLY SW BUT LIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ALONG THE TROUGH...HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ JO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... SHOWERS ARE FINALLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS NOT THAT HIGH. EVENING SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A CAP ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL ERODE THIS SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL OHIO WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE AS WELL AS REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER AND ADJUSTING PRECIPITATION TIMING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE COOLING WILL BE DELAYED. SO GENERALLY RAISED LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 749 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE EXTENDS INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF DETROIT. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WITH LOSS OF HEATING. APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. AT OTHER TAF SITES THERE MAY JUST BE A BRIEF SHOWER IF ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 749 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE EXTENDS INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF DETROIT. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WITH LOSS OF HEATING. APPEARS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. AT OTHER TAF SITES THERE MAY JUST BE A BRIEF SHOWER IF ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO NW OHIO IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT MORE THAN A CB AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED LATER. ETA AND GFS TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 848 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG E COAST...WITH RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER ROCKY MTS. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH RIDGE IN OH/TN VALLEYS. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CAPES DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT ISOLATED ACITIVY TO END BY UPDATE. WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. SKY COVER RATHER MEAGER...BUT RUC KEEPS WIND UP FROM SW AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION LIMITED TO NC MTS VALLEYS AS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 18Z MAV GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONE IN THIS UPDATE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... UPPER LOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG CAPES IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERE HASN/T BEEN MUCH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SPEAK OF TODAY AS LLVL FLOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS HAS BEEN OUT OF THE WEST. YOU NEED TO GET DOWN INTO THE MIDLANDS...MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE H5 TROF...BEFORE THERE IS MUCH MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE DOWN LOW. THAT SAID...THE INSTABILITY IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WL NOT CARRY SCT WORDING IN THE MTNS AS THERE IS AN INCREASING MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF -- EVIDENT ON THE 1200 UTC NASHVILLE SOUNDING -- THAT ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WL ONCE AGAIN CARRY AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE NC MTNS. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER WAVE IS NOW OPEN AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG THE COAST. CWFA TO COME UNDER PRETTY DECENT NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH...ALLOWING A COOL FRONT FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TIMED MORNING PCPN CHANCES IN THE NW AND SPREAD LOW CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME LIFT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AND DEVELOP SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ON DEVELOPING NE FLOW AND SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AT THIS POINT. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... IT IS DEBATABLE HOW MUCH OF A HANDLE 12Z GFS HAS ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN...CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN THE 12Z NAM HAS SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...SO LITTLE HARM IN CONTINUING SOME SILENT 20 PERCENT DIURNAL POP IN THE NC MTNS FRIDAY. 00Z GFS IS A DECENT ENUF COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR DAYS 4-7. EXPECT LINGERING WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BUT WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT MORE THAN CLIMO...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DIP TO BELOW NORMAL CHANCES UNDER UPPER RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DEVIATION FROM LATE JUNE NORMALS EXPECTED. AVIATION... HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE TAFS AT KGSP... KGMU AND KAVL. WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON THE ESCARPMENT...THINK THESE SITES STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING TSTMS. OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS AND CB IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 0000 UTC THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT CONVECTION. HAVE TAKEN KAVL DOWN TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATER TNGT AS DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE NC MTNS. FROPA TMRW WL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... LOOKING AT THE MORNING UPPER AIR...AS OF 12 UTC THE PERSISTENT H5 LOW CENTER WAS A LITTLE MORE SHEARED OUT THAN YDA...BUT THE SHEAR AXIS WAS STILL BETWEEN KGSO AND KRNK. THEREFORE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTN DESPITE THE TROF AXIS FINALLY MAKING A LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS. UNLIKE YDA...THE LLVL FLOW ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE RUC IS PROGGED TO BE OUT OF THE WEST. WE/LL SEE HOW THIS VERIFIES BUT LOOKING AT LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE CASE EARLY ON. THE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WAS EASTERLY YDA...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THE MTNS. THIS AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND W/THE WESTERLY FLOW TDA...THINK WE WL SEE LESS COVERAGE. I STILL LIKE THE CHANCE POPS THAT THE MID SHIFT HAD...AND THERE WL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TDA BE SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS. DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AS THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS WL BE LESS...BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS ONLY AROUND 10500 FEET...SMALL HAIL WL FALL WITH MANY STORMS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 226 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... UPPER TROF AXIS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THAN PROJECTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS; FEATURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY. AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST TODAY AND CWFA ON THE WEAKER WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT INFILTRATING THE REGION FROM THE WEST PER CROSS SECTIONS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD APPROACH SEVERE STATUS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH THAT OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION SEEMS A GOOD BET. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE MOUNTAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY...PUMPING IN SLIGHTLY MOISTER SURFACE AIR. MOS POPS MINIMAL TODAY...BUT WE WILL GIVE ALL LOCATIONS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW ANY CELLS TO COVER GREATER AREAS THAN CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN A MORE STAGNANT PATTERN ON MONDAY. THICKNESS RISES TODAY SUPPORT MAXIMUMS 3 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WE WILL MENTION ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED AS POSSIBLE AREA FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN LARGELY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IN THE CURRENT DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT KEEP CWFA IN A DRIER...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. STRONG DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THAT PERIOD IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE WE HELD ON TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS AT ISOLATED OR BELOW THAT PERIOD. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... FOG WILL BE THE INITIAL PROBLEM OF THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITONS EXPECTED...OCNL IFR OR LESS IN MTN VALLEYS. KAVL WILL MOST LIKELY DO AS IT OFTEN DOES...GOING FROM LIFR TO MVFR IN FOG. BY MID MORNING ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITH CU DEVELOPING TOWARD NOON. COLD AIR ALOFT...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CB CLOUD TYPES AND VCTS ALL SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MCAVOY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1142 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE... ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AS PER EARLIER DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005/ UPDATE... MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A MIXED LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE FROM 800 TO 700 MB. ALSO... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KANSAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT CAPES 1500 TO 2000 J/KG COULD BE REALIZED WITH STRONG INSOLATION ONGOING...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. IN ADDITION...STORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AREA WITH EXISTENT INSTABILITY. 12Z RUC IS ONLY MODEL TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITH COOL LAYER ALOFT...AND IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO FEATURE CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY 00Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...ALLOWING ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE IN NEXT HOUR...WILL LIKELY ISSUE FORECAST UPDATE BY NOON TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER DARK GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. $$ KRAMAR/NUNEZ && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ KRAMAR tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005 .UPDATE... MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A MIXED LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE FROM 800 TO 700 MB. ALSO... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KANSAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT CAPES 1500 TO 2000 J/KG COULD BE REALIZED WITH STRONG INSOLATION ONGOING...ESPECIALLY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. IN ADDITION...STORM COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AREA WITH EXISTENT INSTABILITY. 12Z RUC IS ONLY MODEL TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITH COOL LAYER ALOFT...AND IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO FEATURE CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY 00Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...ALLOWING ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE IN NEXT HOUR...WILL LIKELY ISSUE FORECAST UPDATE BY NOON TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER DARK GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ KRAMAR/NUNEZ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS. OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KDAY TO KMNN. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING HAVE CLEARING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ALL SITES. NAM CU RULE INDICATING THAT SCT CU MAY FORM NEAR KCMH AND KLCK THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AT THIS TIME. (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 342 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 .DISCUSSION... PLUME OF TOASTY MID LVL TMPS ON EVENING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOOTING UP THRU SPINE OF ROCKIES AND MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN...OR PERHAPS REBOUNDING JUST A BIT ESPLY BACK WWRD AFTER SUBTLE SHORT SLIDING SEWRD THRU CNTRL MN. SHORT RANGE CONCERNS ARE MAINLY HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEAT HIGHLIGHTS FOR WED INTO THU...THEN DIAGNOSIS OF THUNDER THREAT AS NEXT WAVE KNOCKS INTO WARM MID LVL TMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMP DWPT SPREAD CONTINUE FAIRLY LOW MOST AREAS...WITH WEAKNESS IN LOW LVL PRESSURE FIELD RIGHT SMACK DAB OVR CWA. AGREE WITH EVNG FCSTR ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH RECENT SOGGINESS AND START OF STABILIZATION...SO WL LEAVE IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEEMS TO BE MORE AN ISSUE OF INITIATION/ ADVECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCED EVENT THU NIGHT...AND DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH OF A THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING...AS MOTION VECTORS DO NOT SUPPORT A TREK INTO THE NEAR VCNTY. SOME SMALL CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM IN FAR ERN CWA LTR THRU ARND SUNRISE ON TAIL EDGE OF WAVE SLIDING THRU MN...AND RUC SHOWING POP UP ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE... ONLY A FEW AFTN FLAT CU WOULD SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED OVR ERN HALF OF CWA WITH TMPS ALFT JUST A TAD COOLER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF SIG CLDS...RATHER PASSING HIGH CLDS TO BE PREVALENT. WET GROUND LKLY TO KEEP FROM REACHING MAX MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WL KEEP SLIGHTLY ON LOWER SIDE OF OVERHEATED GUIDANCE. STILL QUITE WARM WITH MOST AREAS IN LOWER TO MID 90S...AND WARMEST PLUME STILL TO W OF CWA. CONSENSUS WAS THAT HEAT HIGHLIGHTS LKLY MARGINAL AT BEST THIS AFTN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX GET UP TO ARND 105 FROM JAMES VLY WWRD FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE AFTN...AND WL MENTION THIS IN HWO. QUIET WX APPEARS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH WARM TEMPS ALFT AND LACK OF ANY GOOD DYNAMICAL FEATURE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE THREAT. CLASSIC WARM NIGHT LOOKS SET UP AT MML AS LL JET VEERS MORE SWLY AND VERY WARM TMPS ALFT IN PLACE...AND IF NOT FOR FAR SWRN CWA...CUD BE THE WARMEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER DAY TO BAKE ON THU. WAVE OFFSHORE PAC COAST COMES EWRD AND KNOCKS DOWN AT RIDGE BY AFTN...WITH FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING THRU CNTRL SD AND INTO NWRN CWA LTR IN AFTN. NAM JUST A HEDGE FASTER WITH FEATURES BY MIDDAY THU...BUT WL SIDE A BIT SLOWER CLOSER TO CANADIAN/GFS TIMING. NOT THRILLED BY AFTN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG CAP OF 150-250 J/KG /THANKS TO DEEPER SW FLOW ALFT/ IN PLACE BEFORE THE USUAL MODEL WORLD GAMES OF LIFTING/COOLING AWAY. IT WOULD TAKE A HEATING OUT OF GRAND PROPORTIONS TO FULLY WEAKEN OR BREAK CAP AND GET ACTION GOING LATER THU AFTN...WITH TMPS NEEDED JUST OVER THE CENTURY MARK...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WHILE NO DOUBT THAT BEST ENVIRONMENT WL BE NRN INTO NERN CWA...AND ESPLY ON THRU MN WHERE MID LVL TMPS ARE NOT QUITE AS INHIBITING. EXPECT THAT SOME MORE ISOLD STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING ALG BNDRY THRU NRN AND WRN CWA. ML CAPES ARE CONSIDERABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT ONCE ACTION INTIATES... COULD DEVELOP BACK ALG BNDRY ESPLY IF MORE CONVERGENT AND FLOW BACKS MORE IN RESPONSE TO DECENT DIV Q AREA MOVING INTO ERN SD IN EVNG. THEREFORE..WL GO WITH SCT ACRS FAR NRN/NERN CWA...WITH CHC CLOSER TO DRY HEAT OUT TRIPLE PT IN NEBRASKA...THEN SPREAD PCPN ALG FRONTAL BAND DURING NIGHT...INCREASING COVERAGE HEADING EWRD. NICE JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WITH GOOD DIV Q FIELD FOR HOLDING FRONT UP A BIT...AND KEEPING ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION INTO DAYTIME ON FRI DESPITE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREFORE...WL UP POPS TO LKLY FOR MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS ACRS SRN CWA...THEN SAG BNDRY SWRD WITH PCPN INTO FRI EVNG. PCPN ON FRI COULD RESULT IN INVERTED THERMAL FIELD...WITH A BIT MORE WARM TMPS ACRS N WHERE MIXED AND LESS PRECIP...BUT WL BE MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE...AS MIXES ONLY TO MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS N. FRI NIGHT...BUT DO START TO GET RETURN FLOW OUT ACRS THE W AND RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHUD SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST...WHICH WL MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND LLJ TOWARD THE S CNTRL. WL TRIM POPS ACRS MUCH OF CWA...ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION INTO WRN CWA. PLAYED WITH TIMING OF RETURN FLOW AND A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...KEEPING DRY FOR ERN AREAS SAT. WITH VARIETY OF TIMING...WL NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED RANGE. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 .CORRECTED PRELIM POPS/TEMPS... .DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER SHIFTS EAST. LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW...BUOY 020 IS REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THIS TREND OF LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE BAY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS MORNING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OF CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST BEGINNING AT AROUND NOON TO 1 PM AND MOVING WELL INLAND BY 3 OR 4 PM. THE SEABREEZE EFFECT INCREASES LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST BY ABOUT 5 MPH FOR ROUGHLY AN HOUR AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 77 91 77 91 / 10 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 94 73 94 76 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 72 95 74 94 / 10 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 74 98 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 74 101 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 77 90 77 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 54/55 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 .DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER SHIFTS EAST. LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW...BUOY 020 IS REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THIS TREND OF LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE BAY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS MORNING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OF CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST BEGINNING AT AROUND NOON TO 1 PM AND MOVING WELL INLAND BY 3 OR 4 PM. THE SEABREEZE EFFECT INCREASES LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST BY ABOUT 5 MPH FOR ROUGHLY AN HOUR AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 93 77 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 95 75 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 100 72 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 73 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 79 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 54/55 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 932 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT WITH FALLING DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SOON TO OVERSPREAD ILN CWA. EXPECT MINIMAL CUMULUS FORMATION WITH ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALREADY UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND TO MAKE ALL ZONES MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF DRY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED WITH SOUNDING SHOWING HIGH IN MID 80S AS PER FORECAST. CONIGLIO && .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KDAY AND KCMH WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SKIES TO BE SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. SMALL PATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KCMH. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO THRU 13Z. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS. OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY. (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 650 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KDAY AND KCMH WHERE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SKIES TO BE SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. SMALL PATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KCMH. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO THRU 13Z. LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS. OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY. (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 900 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 .UPDATE... WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE LOWER VALLEY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PW OF 1.43 INCHES...AN INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY. AGREE THAT A SEABREEZE SHOWER OR 2 ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WILL KEEP THE SHADOW 5 POPS BUT WILL REARRANGE THEM A BIT TO SEABREEZE ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .MARINE... BUOY020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005/ CORRECTED PRELIM POPS/TEMPS... DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 64/65/MARTINEZ tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 249 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY) MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN PRECIP COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING CENTER OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH...WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM...THOUGH HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. CURRENT RADARS SUPPORTING WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ECHOES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH ATTM. TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SW ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH CONTINUED WEAK. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY STORM MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NCEP PLOTS INDICATED PRECIP WATER BETWEEN 100 AND 150 PERCENT OF NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A CONCERN. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TO DIMINISH WITH THE SUN...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE KEPT ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE PLUME. THURSDAY...SW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST TONIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AS MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS UTAH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH SCATTERED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCREASED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS THOUGH...WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING TO NEAR THE WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. -MW .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE TYPICAL LATE JUNE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FORECAST. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MIGHT DRIFT A LITTLE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL(AFTN AND EVE) SHRA/TSRA IN THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG I-25. IN SOME CASES...MOISTURE DATA ANALYSES INDICATE A "MONSOON-LIKE" MOISTURE AXIS COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET AND A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ALSO SUGGEST LOW POPS/WX THROUGH DAY 7... ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR MINOR TEMPERATURES VARIANCES EACH DAY. [METZE] && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 23/17 co FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .DISCUSSION... AN IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE WATERS...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS WEST AND NORTH OF KEY WEST. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE STRAITS ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND HEAVY RAINS. THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED STEADY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THE WEATHER REGIME THAT UNTIL RECENTLY WAS MARKED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z BASED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED DECENT POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THE LIKE HAS EVOLVED. .FORECASTS... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RAISED POPS PER RECENT ZFP UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING TO COVER THE MESOSCALE ACTIVITY. ALOFT LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ALIGNMENT NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN...WITH WEAK LOW ALTITUDE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS MAINTAINING A WEAK SURFACE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE NOW DRIFTING A SHARP LOBE OF THE EAST GULF UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE KEYS BY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...UKMET HOLDS IT JUST TO THE WEST. UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE ON THE GFS AND NAM. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH AT 850 MB...YET THERE IS STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE WEST PROMPTS POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE FEW SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AFTER THURSDAY TO STRAY FROM CLIMO THEREAFTER. THUS AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOMORROW. EXPECT THE GREATER POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...EITHER OVER THE KEYS OR OVER THE STRAITS. AFTERWARDS GUIDANCE INSIST ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR 30 PERCENT POPS AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW. FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE THIS JUNE...THE EASTERN GULF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AGAIN WITH AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST THANKS TO YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 250 MB WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST YET AGAIN. ENSEMBLE MOS POPS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND SEE NO REASON TO STRAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY OFFSET NEGATING EFFECTS FROM BEING WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. && .MARINE... BOTTOM LINE...A ROUGH EVENING FOR KEYS BOATERS AS THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING. THIS ABERRATION IN THE SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME IS LIKELY TO KEEP WINDS VARIABLE AND LOCALLY GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN. THE APPROACH TROUGH TO THE EAST MAY MAKE WINDS BRIEFLY NORTHEAST AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AT 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FREQUENT UPDATES ON SHORT-TERM WEATHER THIS EVENING...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS. && .AVIATION... SCT SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING ON THE ROUTE MIAMI TO KEY WEST...ALONG WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. REMEMBER...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY LLWS. JUST CHECK THE LATEST SIGMETS...METARS...AND TAF AMENDMENTS WHEN PLANNING YOUR FLIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 77/87/80/88/81 70/50/30/30/30 MARATHON 77/89/80/90/81 70/50/30/30/30 && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...JR AVIATION/SHORT TERMS.........DFM fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 115 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SKC FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS, MIST IS NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT WITH FALLING DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SOON TO OVERSPREAD ILN CWA. EXPECT MINIMAL CUMULUS FORMATION WITH ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE STABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALREADY UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND TO MAKE ALL ZONES MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF DRY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED WITH SOUNDING SHOWING HIGH IN MID 80S AS PER FORECAST. CONIGLIO && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS. OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY. (ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL CU HAD DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA. MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN. TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM. MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK OFF A FEW TSTMS. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG. BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY 2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG ATTM. THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS CURRENTLY ACRS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE CAP IS BROKEN. WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z. THINK MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR TONIGHT. BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG. FURTHER SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30. FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION. TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60. ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. SO NEAR GUID ON WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT. MAY ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S. RYAN LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL. CONIGLIO && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1157 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005 .DISCUSSION... WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY CONDITIONS AS FORECAST WITH VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. MADE A FEW CHANGES EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING DIURNAL CLIMB...OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOK GOOD. DECREASED CLOUDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS A BIT AS WELL. .PREV DISCUSSION... PLUME OF TOASTY MID LVL TMPS ON EVENING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOOTING UP THRU SPINE OF ROCKIES AND MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. RIDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN...OR PERHAPS REBOUNDING JUST A BIT ESPLY BACK WWRD AFTER SUBTLE SHORT SLIDING SEWRD THRU CNTRL MN. SHORT RANGE CONCERNS ARE MAINLY HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEAT HIGHLIGHTS FOR WED INTO THU...THEN DIAGNOSIS OF THUNDER THREAT AS NEXT WAVE KNOCKS INTO WARM MID LVL TMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. TEMP DWPT SPREAD CONTINUE FAIRLY LOW MOST AREAS...WITH WEAKNESS IN LOW LVL PRESSURE FIELD RIGHT SMACK DAB OVR CWA. AGREE WITH EVNG FCSTR ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH RECENT SOGGINESS AND START OF STABILIZATION...SO WL LEAVE IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEEMS TO BE MORE AN ISSUE OF INITIATION/ ADVECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCED EVENT THU NIGHT...AND DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH OF A THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING...AS MOTION VECTORS DO NOT SUPPORT A TREK INTO THE NEAR VCNTY. SOME SMALL CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM IN FAR ERN CWA LTR THRU ARND SUNRISE ON TAIL EDGE OF WAVE SLIDING THRU MN...AND RUC SHOWING POP UP ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE... ONLY A FEW AFTN FLAT CU WOULD SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED OVR ERN HALF OF CWA WITH TMPS ALFT JUST A TAD COOLER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF SIG CLDS...RATHER PASSING HIGH CLDS TO BE PREVALENT. WET GROUND LKLY TO KEEP FROM REACHING MAX MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WL KEEP SLIGHTLY ON LOWER SIDE OF OVERHEATED GUIDANCE. STILL QUITE WARM WITH MOST AREAS IN LOWER TO MID 90S...AND WARMEST PLUME STILL TO W OF CWA. CONSENSUS WAS THAT HEAT HIGHLIGHTS LKLY MARGINAL AT BEST THIS AFTN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX GET UP TO ARND 105 FROM JAMES VLY WWRD FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE AFTN...AND WL MENTION THIS IN HWO. QUIET WX APPEARS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH WARM TEMPS ALFT AND LACK OF ANY GOOD DYNAMICAL FEATURE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE THREAT. CLASSIC WARM NIGHT LOOKS SET UP AT MML AS LL JET VEERS MORE SWLY AND VERY WARM TMPS ALFT IN PLACE...AND IF NOT FOR FAR SWRN CWA...CUD BE THE WARMEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER DAY TO BAKE ON THU. WAVE OFFSHORE PAC COAST COMES EWRD AND KNOCKS DOWN AT RIDGE BY AFTN...WITH FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING THRU CNTRL SD AND INTO NWRN CWA LTR IN AFTN. NAM JUST A HEDGE FASTER WITH FEATURES BY MIDDAY THU...BUT WL SIDE A BIT SLOWER CLOSER TO CANADIAN/GFS TIMING. NOT THRILLED BY AFTN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH STRONG CAP OF 150-250 J/KG /THANKS TO DEEPER SW FLOW ALFT/ IN PLACE BEFORE THE USUAL MODEL WORLD GAMES OF LIFTING/COOLING AWAY. IT WOULD TAKE A HEATING OUT OF GRAND PROPORTIONS TO FULLY WEAKEN OR BREAK CAP AND GET ACTION GOING LATER THU AFTN...WITH TMPS NEEDED JUST OVER THE CENTURY MARK...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WHILE NO DOUBT THAT BEST ENVIRONMENT WL BE NRN INTO NERN CWA...AND ESPLY ON THRU MN WHERE MID LVL TMPS ARE NOT QUITE AS INHIBITING. EXPECT THAT SOME MORE ISOLD STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING ALG BNDRY THRU NRN AND WRN CWA. ML CAPES ARE CONSIDERABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT ONCE ACTION INTIATES... COULD DEVELOP BACK ALG BNDRY ESPLY IF MORE CONVERGENT AND FLOW BACKS MORE IN RESPONSE TO DECENT DIV Q AREA MOVING INTO ERN SD IN EVNG. THEREFORE..WL GO WITH SCT ACRS FAR NRN/NERN CWA...WITH CHC CLOSER TO DRY HEAT OUT TRIPLE PT IN NEBRASKA...THEN SPREAD PCPN ALG FRONTAL BAND DURING NIGHT...INCREASING COVERAGE HEADING EWRD. NICE JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WITH GOOD DIV Q FIELD FOR HOLDING FRONT UP A BIT...AND KEEPING ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION INTO DAYTIME ON FRI DESPITE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREFORE...WL UP POPS TO LKLY FOR MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS ACRS SRN CWA...THEN SAG BNDRY SWRD WITH PCPN INTO FRI EVNG. PCPN ON FRI COULD RESULT IN INVERTED THERMAL FIELD...WITH A BIT MORE WARM TMPS ACRS N WHERE MIXED AND LESS PRECIP...BUT WL BE MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE...AS MIXES ONLY TO MID TO UPPER 70S ACRS N. FRI NIGHT...BUT DO START TO GET RETURN FLOW OUT ACRS THE W AND RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHUD SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST...WHICH WL MOVE WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND LLJ TOWARD THE S CNTRL. WL TRIM POPS ACRS MUCH OF CWA...ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION INTO WRN CWA. PLAYED WITH TIMING OF RETURN FLOW AND A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...KEEPING DRY FOR ERN AREAS SAT. WITH VARIETY OF TIMING...WL NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED RANGE. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 551 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST WRN EXTENT OF TSTMS NOW ENTERING NW VA WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY HEAD S (CONSISTENT W/ HIGHEST CAPE IN RUC OVER VA PIEDMONT)...SO HAVE DROPPED AFTERNOON WARNING AND GONE W/ ISO TSTM OVER PIEDMONT THIS EVENING (AS WANING SOLAR HEATING SHLD WORK TO DMNSH EXTENT OVER TIME). STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR MARIGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS...LIMITING FACTOR IS VERY WEAK (ONLY 20-25KT) IN LOWEST 6 KM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 334 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... SFC WSHFT N OF MASON DIXON LN ATTM...AND WTR VPR PIX SHOW THE RAPID MID/UPR DRYING SINKING S...SUPPLYING MUCH OF THE FRCG SUPPORTING THE CNVCTN N OF THE MASON DIXON LN. SOME ISOLD CNVCTN IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO INSTBLTY OVR THE REGION. BKN BAND OF SPRKLS EXITING THE LWR MD ERN SHORE THRU SE VA AND NC. CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GDNC...THAT MID/UPR DRYING AND A BRUSH WTH SOME UPR DYNMCS WL SUPPORT CNVCTN ALG THE WSHFT BNDRY AS IT CONTS ITS PROGRESS S LT THS AFTN AND THRU THS EVENING. SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO WHERE THE BEST VERTICVAL MOTION TRACKS...BUT BASED ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABV THE BNDRY LYR...AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABV THE BNDRY LYR IN WRN AREAS...BEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSTM WL BE BASICALLY ARND CHES BAY THRU LWR MD...SE VA AND NE NC...WTH SLGT CHCS ARND I-95 INCL OFP/RIC/PTB/EMV. ISOLD SVR PSBL BUT MOST STAYING BELOW SVR...AND AS ALWAYS...ANY TSTMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. VIL OF DAY ESTIMATED IN LOW 60S. DEEP DRYING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVRNGT AND THRU TMRW...BUT SFC DWPTS DO NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL. BNDRY LYR TEMPS DO COOL...ESPCLY IN ERN AREAS. TEMPS FALL INTO LWR/MID 60S MOST AREAS OVRNGT. WTH STG SUNSHINE TMRW...TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL INTO 80S MOST AREAS EVEN WTH THE SLGTLY COOLER BNDRY LYR TEMPS...BUT A LTL COOLER ON LWR MD ERN SHORE. SFC HGH BUILDS OFFSDHORE TMRW NGT AND FRI...SO SRLY SFC FLO SETS UP...AND BNDRY LYR TEMPS WARM...SO TRENDING TWD 90 IN WARMER SPOTS AGN ON FRI...AND WDSPRD ARND 90 TO LWR 90S SATURDAY AS UPR RDG BUILDS OFFSHORE...BUT ONSHORE SFC WNDS KP CSTL AREAS COOLER. SYSTM CURRENTLY ARND SRN FL NOT RESOLVED WELL BY VARIOUS SOURCES OF GDNC...AND BASED ON MEAN UPR PATN AND WND FLO...SHUD NOT AFFECT OUR REGION...AT LEAST THRU SATURDAY. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BY SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY...NXT SFC BNDRY APPCHS FROM THE N...BUT UPR RDG WELL AMPLIFIED JUST OFFSHORE...AND NRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE NOT VRY AMPLIFIED...SO SFC BNDRY WL BE VRY WK IF IT EVEN MAKES IT INTO VA/NC. CNVCTN MAY HELP DRIVE WSHFT BNDRY S INTO VA/NC BY SUNDAY NGT AND MON...SO KEEPING ISOLD CNVCTN IN GRIDS UNTIL MORE EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED CNVCTN. SOME SOURCES OF GDNC CONT TO SUGG SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSES HEADING NW INTO CAROLINAS ARND PERIPHERY OF UPR RDG...BUT QUITE A SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES IN SOURCES OF GDNC...SO NOT ACKNOWLEDGING IN FCST...AND KPG DRY WTH TEMPS AT OR ABV CLIMO. AVIATION... MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WHERE VSBY MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR. MARINE... FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN EAST. HOWEVER...SPEEDS MODEST IN LATEST RUNS AND NOW APPEARS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA EVEN FOR SOUTHERN WATERS...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION FROM FCST. AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ SHORT TERM...NS LONG TERM...NS AVIATION...09 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MALOIT va