SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
156 PM MDT SAT MAY 6 2000
...CONCERSN THIS FCST PERIOD ARE WINDS (FIRE-WX) AND CONVECTIVE
THREAT MONDAY...
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK SFC LOW OVER EXTRM SE CO. OVER
PLAINS WIND FLOW GENERALLY FROM A N-NE COMPONENT WHILE FLOW IN I-25
CORRIDOR REGION GENRALLY VARIABLE. FLOW IN MTNS SW. DEEP R MOISTURE
EXISTS OVER FAR E CLORADO...HOWEVER DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER MOST OF
REGION BELIEVED TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW.
SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE SFC LOW/TROUGH SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TIME...WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY OVER PLAINS. I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS FAST AS RUC IS INDICATING. PRECIP THREAT IN DEEPER
MOSITURE STILL BELIEVE TO BE VERY SLIGHT AT BEST DUE TO SHALLOW
NATURE OF MOISTURE AND ILL DEFINED CONVERGENCE. LAPS ANALYSIS
HOWEVER INDICATES NO CAPPING...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE
CASE.
FCST DISCUSSION...MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FCST
PERIOD IS JET (FLOW) WILL BE WORKING SOUTH AND WILL MOVE OVER
COLORADO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORT WAVES
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE
RAMIFICATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. LATER TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE FOG TO
BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS T/TD SPREAD REACH
ZERO UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL REFORM THE
SFC LOW OVER THE AREA OVER NE CO...AND MOVE IT ENE ACROSS NE
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE SE CO TO THE S OF THIS LOW...
WHICH MEANS DOWNSLOPE DRY CONDTIONS FOR OUR CWA. WITH THINGS BEING
DRY OVER THE PLAINS...THE FIRE DANGER OUT EAST WILL BE EVEN HIGHER.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DOWNSLOPE AND THREAT OF PRECIP (LTG) TOMORROW
NIL...ANY HUMAN MADE FIRES COULD BE A SIGNIF THREAT. AS FOR THE
MTNS...FIRE WX THREAT NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS WINDS SHOULD NOT BE ALL
THAT STRONG.
MAIN CONCERN WHICH CAUGHT MY CONVECTIVE EYE IS MONDAY. AVN HAS A
100+ KNOT JET MOVING ACROSS THE N TIER OF THE CENTENNIAL STATE ON
THIS DAY. HAVING A JET OF THIS MAGNITUDE MOVING OVER THE STATE WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH IS A RECIPE FOR SIGNIF CONVECTION.
DYNAMICALLY ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIF
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED AT THIS
TIME. ALOT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FIRST SFC LOW
MOVING INTO NE SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THAT SYSTEM BECOMES QUITE STRONG...
THEN SFC FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS OUR FA ON MONDAY...AND
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS LLVL MOISTURE WILL NOT GET
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER HAND....WITH SUCH AN
IMPRESSIVE JET COMING INTO THE STATE...THE PRESSURES ARE GOING TO
START TO FALL QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE MTNS....
THIS IN TURN WILL BRING THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND BRING THE
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. IN ADDITION...WITH EAST WINDS...0-6 KM SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE LARGE IN MAGNITUDE (>50 KNOTS) ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
ROTATE. OBVIOUSLY...IT IS QUITE TOO EARLY TO TRY TO DECIPHER THE
DETAILS...BUT MONDAY COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING CONVECTIVELY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...BEST THREAT FOR
PRECIP ON THIS DATE WOULD BE THE PIKES PEAK REGION EAST TO KIOWA
COUNTY. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A 20-30 CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE FA.
IN THE EXTENDED...TOUGH CALL. FLOW WILL BE OVER US THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEAK SHORTS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE AND
DO NOT SEE ANY DAY WHICH STANDS OUT. I AM EXPECTING ISOLD/SCTD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH SOME OF THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCES WOULD
BE THE MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN THE DRYLINE...AND THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA. DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES AND COVERAGE ISSUES...
WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY ATTM.
HODANISH
.PUB...NONE...
co
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF DIURNALLY AIDED SPEED/WEAK DIRECTIONAL
CONVERGENCE. A FEW CONVERGENT CU LINES WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE TIME
LAPSE FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND KMLB 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW
EMBEDDED -SHRA BUT DECREASING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RUC H50 VORT ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOBE FROM
OFFSHORE KPBI STRETCHING SE ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHAIN. SOME THIN CI
WAS STREAMING THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SUBTROP JETSTREAM.
THE 10Z KXMR RAOB SHOWED MOISTURE HAD DEEPENED EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT H70.
FORECAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
COASTAL/INLAND WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN DIRECTION/SPEED AND THE
COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION CAUSES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE INVOF THE
EAST COAST. UNTIL THEN WILL HANDLE REMNANT ISOLD SHOWERS FROM MLB
NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM FCST. ALL AREAS WILL SEE PCDLY SKIES WITH
SUBSIDENCE DECREASING COASTAL CLOUDINESS THEN SPREADING INLAND FROM
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...WINDS 8-10KT WITH 3FT SEAS AT 41009 SO WILL NUDGE WINDS
DOWN A HAIR IN THE FLG-COF.
NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS.
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...LASCODY
FXUS62 KMFL 061347 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000
LATEST W/V IMAGERY SHOWING VORT CENTER SPINNING INTO E CENT MO ATTM
WITH ONE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO CENT IL. SOMETHING
MORE TO NOTE WOULD BE SHRAS FILLING IN RAPIDLY BACK ACROSS CENT MO
ON NOSE OF 40KT LLJ FOCUSING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA.
LATEST 00Z RUC DATA INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONV AT NOSE OF
40-50KT LLJ INCREASING ACROSS E CENT MO BY 06Z AND THEN SHIFTING
SLOWLY INTO SW AND E CENT IL DURING 06-12Z TIME FRAME. ALSO AIDING
LIFT AND PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BY VORT MOVING INTO SRN IL. THEREFORE
WOULD EXPECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING PCPN
ACROSS MO NEXT FEW HOURS THEN SHIFTING INTO IL. BEST PCPN COVERAGE
AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WITH
LESSER COVERAGE MOVING NORTH. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP
WORDING.
FRIEDERS
FXUS63 KLOT 061956 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000
WILL BE UPDATING PORTIONS OF THE ZONES TO INCREASE POPS FOR REASONS
BELOW IN THE BATON ROUGE AND SW MS AREAS. ELSEWHERE TEMPS AND POPS
SEEM ON TRACK.
AFTER ANALYZING 12Z DATA AND SCRUTINIZING THE SOUNDING BELIEVE THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT NEEDS WATCHING FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. UPPER CUTOFF LOW
IN THE TULSA AREA PRODUCING A MCS-MCC STRUCTURE EARL THIS MORNING
WITH PROPAGATING FLANK HEADING DOWN BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AXIS TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS MAINLY H50 AND
UPWARD WITH AN OPEN TROUGH BELOW THAT LAYER. A H50 TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO KLIT-KHEZ-KLFT WITH A -14C COLD POOL ALONG ITS AXIS.
H85 THETAE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO ACADIANA/ATCHAFALAYA
REGION WHILE A THETAE TROUGH SITS OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
DEEP FETCHED TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS THE ENTIRE STATE IN 65+ DEWPOINTS
WITH RELATIVELY STEEP DRY LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
RICKS INDEX/PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR OUTPUT USING A 330K LIFT AT
900MB YIELDS THE FOLLOWING: POP=100%...PCPN=1.67"...POTL PCPN=5.04"
FOR TEMPS BELOW 68F...FMAP=2.01"...RICKS INDEX=157 WITH A PROB OF
SVR=12%...FCST GUSTS 52-62KT...FCST HAIL SIZE 1" WITH VIL OF THE DAY
AT 49 J/KG.
THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 329K H85 BULLSEYE ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR
WILKINSON CO MS FOR 21Z. THIS GIVES ME ENOUGH REASONING TO JUSTIFY A
POP INCREASE FOR THE NW PART OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COORDINATED AND DISCUSSED INTENTIONS WITH JACKSON.
.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
24
FXUS64 KSHV 061515 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
SYNOPSIS: SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE RIDGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINING VERY DRY
AIR (DPTS IN THE 30S) AT THE SFC/LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. TO
THE WEST A STRONG WARM FRONT (WITH DPTS IN THE 60S) WAS EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUE PROV TO NEAR A KBTV-KDXR LINE.
WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
LOW LEVEL JET (30+ KTS) DEPICTED WELL BY LATEST MESOETA/RUC RUNS
RIDING THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY IS INTERSECTING AND ENHANCING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION (LIGHTNING
STRIKES) HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT JUST NORTH OF VT/NH BORDER IN
CANADA. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING BEST
CONVECTION TO THE WEST WHILE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACROSS
CWA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE ENCOUNTERING
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS THUS LITTLE IF ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NICE JOB HOLDING OFF PCPN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST SFC OBS INDICATING DPTS SLOWLY INCREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT.
BASED ON LOCAL RADAR/RADAR COMPOSITE WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY AND
MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CAT/LIKELY POP
FORECAST AND WILL INDICATE PCPN TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WORDING ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ON
THE UPDATE. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF PSBL TSRA IN ZONES.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS WILL LOWER THE DOWNEAST COAST OTHERWISE MINS
ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD.
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND INCREASING FROM THE S/SW SHOULD REACH
SCA CRITERIA ON SUN.
BGR BU 051/069 060/080 056 05633 333/444/08
CAR EU 050/071 055/070 050 05953 333/444/08
.CAR...NONE.
FITZSIMMONS
FXUS61 KGYX 070100 me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE THE SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT.
IR SATELLITE/SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING UPPER MICHIGAN
FROM THE WEST. KDLH 88D SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER N CENTRAL MN AT 01Z. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTH INTO
E CENTRAL MN...BUT MOST OF THE ACTION IS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER.
FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...CAPES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 500J/KG WITH LI/S
NR 0. FORCING IS LIMITED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THERE IS MORE
JET ENERGY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SFC CONVERGENCE
WITH THE COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN FORCING PRODUCING THE SHOWERS.
MODELS INDICATE THAT A 100KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER THE N ROCKIES
WILL MOVE NE TO ONTARIO BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PLACES THE U.P. IN
THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE LIMITING
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF S DAKOTA AND S MN...AND WILL DO THE SAME
OVER THE U.P. LATER ON TONIGHT. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FROM 0 TO 2C
AND CAPES ARE UNDER 500 J/KG WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTION. W/O
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A REAL LACK OF A LL JET TONIGHT...AM
EXPECTING ONLY LGT SHRA OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL TAKE OUT SHRA AND TSRA IN THE
CENTRAL AND CURTAIL TSTM WORDING WEST. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT AND WORKS WELL WITH THE GOING FCST. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE
AMOUNT OF LAYER RH OVER WISCONSIN...ESP SINCE THE NEW ETA AND RUC
SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND QPF OVER THE E U.P. AND NORTHERN
LOWER. THERE ARE SOME SPRINKLES S OF KGRB HEADING NE...SO WILL ADD
SPRINKLES TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
UPON CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 18Z MESOETA...IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHERN U.P. MAY HAVE TO CONTENT WITH AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ALL MODELS...ESP ETA AND
MESOETA INDICATE THAT OVER AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE ESP WEST. WILL
BEEF UP THE WORDING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH.
COORD W/ APX
.MQT...NONE.
ALTOE
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LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED.
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SURVEY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!
FXUS63 KAPX 070227 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI FORECASTS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IS THREAT FOR ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH A SMALL ONE AT THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF
A FOCUSING MECHANISM.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION ACROSS THE
SW STATES EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS (ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAX ACROSS NW STATES). EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION (ENHANCED BY LAST NIGHT'S MCS ACTIVITY)
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS ERN MISSOURI...WITH AN EVEN WEAKER VORT
LOBE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPERIMPOSED UNDERNEATH BROAD UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. UP TO THIS POINT...SHOWERS ARE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS SE WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MINIMAL
DIFFERENTIAL PVA.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS REMAIN NO DIFFERENT FROM THE THINKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THAT IS WITH THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
FLATTENING OUT AS IT CONTINUES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS BROAD UPPER
RIDGING. 850-500 MB Q-VECTORS ARE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT AS A
RESULT. SFC WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLACKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET...WITH
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED TO ALLOW WINDS OFF THE
SFC (950-925 MB) TO CLIMB INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE (THIS ACCORDING TO
LATEST 88D VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AND FROM LATEST RUC MODEL PROGS).
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DECENT LOW-LVL INFLOW AND THETA-E RIDGING OFF
THE SFC...THE LACK OF A BOUNDARY (FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE) AND 850-300
THICKNESS DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE CHANNELING AND (THUS) THE THREAT/COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...SE NO REASON TO SWAY FROM PRIOR FCST...
WHICH HAD A LOW (30 PCT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AREA TEMPS AT 02Z ARE RUNNING AROUND 5F HIGHER THAN FWC MOS. WHILE
SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SOMEWHAT...WEAK FLOW/MIXING AND SCATTERED
TO AT TIMES BROKEN CLOUDY LAYERS ARE LIMITING TEMPERATURE FALLS THUS
FAR THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY BOOST LOW TEMPS IN MOST ZONES AS A
RESULT.
.APX...NONE.
HURLEY
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FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***
FXUS63 KDTX 070152 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM A CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST US.
THE RUC MODEL DATA AND 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS... SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
CURRENT VISIBLE STLT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA
SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A
SCATTERED FIELD OF CU LINGERS OVER NRN LOWER WHICH DEVELOPED DUE TO LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6C/KM WITH SURFACE DWPTS 55-60 AND
850 MB DWPTS 8C OR HIGHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION WITH A HIGH AMOUNT
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT WITH LITTLE WELL
DEFINED LIFTING TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
OVERALL MODEL DATA WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...HOWEVER THE MODELS DUE DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ETA WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA... AS THE NGM FORECASTED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
INTO CENTRAL IL AND IND AT 12Z THIS MORNING WHILE THIS AREA HAD
REMAINED DRY ALL MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE DWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH 850 MB DWPTS BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER THE AREA LACKS FOCUSED ORGANIZED LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...
WILL BE A 500 MB VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITH 500/700 MB DPVA INCREASING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK 850/700 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASING
AFTER 06Z. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVIDENT OVER EAST UPPER
AND NORTHERN LOWER SUNDAY. A 850 MB THTE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EAST
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH 850 MB DWPTS
AROUND 10C TO 12C. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE
FRONT MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND A VORT CENTER MOVING INTO EAST
WISCONSIN. LIFTED INDEX WILL DROP TO -2 TO -4 OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FOR MONDAY...CONTINUED HIGH 850 DWPTS AROUND 10C TO 12C WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFT BEING SUPPLIED BY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OVER WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST AS THE BEST PUSH OF LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM THIS
SYSTEM... WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS MODELS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPLYING MOST
OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY THE
EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERNS. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND MRF DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US WHICH ENHANCES THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
US. THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW FRIDAY WITH A WEAKER
TROUGH OF THE WESTERN US AND THEREFORE WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL US. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE CANADIAN AND MRF THIS RUN AS EVEN
THE WEAKER FLOW OF THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL US.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
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FXUS63 KMQT 061958 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING WITH SITUATION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
CU FIELD TO FORM SOON AND POSSIBLY TAKE ON GOOD VERTICAL EXTENT AS
AFTERNOON HEAT AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. HOWEVER TRIGGER FOR SCTRD
CONVECTION STILL IN QUESTION. MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE WOULD BE A VORT
LOBE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE VORT CENTER NEAR THE QUAD CITIES.
LATEST RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS WILL ROTATE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATE
SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED.
MEADE
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.GRR...NONE.
FXUS63 KDTX 061510 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000
BIG QUESTION TNGT RMNS THE CHC FOR CONVECTION OR NOT. 01Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CDFNT...STNRY AT THIS POINT...FM BETWEEN KBKX AND
KATY...STRETCHING SWRD TO JUST E OF KMHE AND KSFD. LATEST RUC SHOWS
NO MOVEMENT OF THIS BNDRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TOO ANEMIC OR NON EXISTANT TO PUSH IT ANYWHERE. 00Z
SNDGS FROM KOAX...KLBF AND KMSP STILL SHOW ONE HECK OF A CAP. THE
ONLY WAY CONVECTION WOULD GO ON THESE SNDGS IS ELEVATED...AND THERE
IS ABSOLUTELY NO MSTR FM H7 ON UP...WITH MID LVL DPD'S RUNNING AT 30
DEG C OR GREATER. SO NOTHING WL GO ELEVATED EITHER. KABR SNDG IS NOT
CAPPED BEHIND THE BNDRY...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MID OR UPR LVL
TRIGGER ANYMORE TO INITIATE TSTMS...AND 00Z RUC SHOWS LITTLE HELP OF
ANY MID LVL SUPPORT DVLPING TNGT TO SPARK CONVECTION. AREA WIND
PROFILERS SHOW UNI DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FM THE SW TO WSW...EVEN AT THE
LLVLS...NOT GOOD FOR CONVECTION.
ONE AREA THAT COULD GET GOING...AS PER SPC DISCS...IS FURTHER WEST
IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AN 850MB THTE AXIS EXISTS WITH
ATLEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WK LLVL JET. MSAS LLVL GRIDS SHOW
EXCELLENCE CONV OVR WRN NEB...TO SE WY...AND MESOETA CONSISTENTLY
PROGS A H5 VORT MAX TNGT ACRS NRN NEB...PSBLY IN RESPONSE TO
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WL LV MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE WRN PTN OF FSD
CWA FOR TNGT...WHERE ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAY CLIP LATER TNGT
BEFORE IT DIES IN THE CAP HERE IN THE EAST. WL UPDATE SHORTLY TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF ANY EVE TSTMS.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KUNR 070023 sd
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000
UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING AND TO UP A FEW HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AMARILLO/S RECORD FOR TODAY IS 94 SO THIS COULD
FALL BY THE WAYSIDE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED HANG AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. SO WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED.
AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
GOEHRING
FXUS64 KFWD 061713 AMD tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000
CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE CHANGE
WILL BE MADE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDING FROM RNK...AND MODEL DATA.
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT JUST A SHADE DRIER. ETA/RUC KEEP
THTE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING. CALCULATED
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALSO SIMILAR TO YDY. 06Z META ACTUALLY HAS
THTE MIN??? BUBBLE OF HIGHER THTE WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN SIMILAR
H8/SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. VIS SAT PIX ALREADY SHOWING SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER NC NRN MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
.RNK.
.VA...NONE.
.NC...NONE.
.WV...NONE.
NOGUEIRA
va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
827 AM PDT SAT MAY 6 2000
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. INITIALIZATION LIMITED THIS MORNING PER SLOW
INFLOW OF MDL DATA. ALL MDLS (NEW/OLD) SEEMINGLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH INCRG INSTBY THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACRS NRN AREAS.
SATELLITE INDICATING CONVECTIVE CELLS OFF NRN CST TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...WITH SW THERMAL WINDS HINTING AT THE WAA TO LATER OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT. BY AFTERNOON AMS STABILIZING IN THESE HIR
LAYERS WITH WARMING/CAP 700MB UP. HOWEVER LOW LVL INSTBY INCRG WITH
MORE SUN THUS IDEA OF SCT -SHRA AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING
LOOKS GOOD. LIFT TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE ANY ICE PELLETS TODAY... SO
IDEA OF SIMPLE SHRA SEEMS WAY TO GO. AMS VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING VERY DRY CONDS TONIGHT. THAT
COUPLED WITH ELY SFC GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW MIN T'S TO BOTTOM OUT.
WANT TO SEE THE RUC LATER TODAY TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR DEW POINTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO APPLY TWD TONIGHT'S LOWS. LOOKING LIKE PATCHY
FROST NONETHELESS. OTHWS... DRY SPLIT FLOW NEXT COUPLE DAYS TIL FLOW
CONSOLIDATES TUE WITH WINTER-LIKE LONG WAVE LOW GRADUALLY MOVG OVR
AREA MID WEEK. QUERCIAGROSSA
UIL 411 SEA 211 OLM 211
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL
.SEW...NONE.
N
wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1013 AM MDT SAT MAY 6 2000
CDFNT HAD MOVD THRU MOST OF CWA BY MID MRNG...WITH ONLY RWL AND SAA NOT
IN THE COOLER AIR YET. NEW AMS BHND FNT IS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER THAN
THAT OF FRI. FCST TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK FINE FOR TDA...WITH THE MAIN
QSTN BEING POPS AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS. WITH A STBL AND DRIER AMS
NOW IN PLACE AND THE MAIN SFC FORCING TO THE E OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT
IT APRS THAT SVR TSTM ACTVTY IS NOT TOO LKLY THRU THE AFTN. IN
ADTN...THE ONLY DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF IS THE CURRENT SHRTWV TROF IN
NRN AND WRN WY...LIFTING NE INTO MT. NEW RUC AND ETA STILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES WITH B2 TO B4 IN THE WRN NEB PNHNDL TO NEAR DGW BY 00Z.
HWVR...CAPE VALUES ON THE 12Z ETA ARE NOW DOWN TO BTN 200 AND 600 IN THAT
AREA. IT APRS THAT SHWRS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SLWLY SAGGING ESE
BCLNC CLD BAND NOW FROM NE TO SW WY. SHWRS WERE NOTED ON RIW 88D IN
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA. WILL KEEP THE GOING 20 TO 30 PCT POPS FOR
THE AFTN AND TRY TO TIME FROM W TO E OVR THE CWA.
.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
WEILAND
wy
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
315 AM MDT SUN MAY 7 2000
LOW-AMPLITUDE FAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. STILL AFTER LOTS OF ANALYSIS...
THE IMPORTANT PARAMETERS REMAIN OPAQUE AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DETAILS:
CURRENTLY: AT THE JET LEVEL...ETA/RUC MATCH WATER VAPOR WELL WITH
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF APPROACHING JET NOSE. AT THE SURFACE...
MODELS ARE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AT 06Z...THOUGH THE NGM IS CLOSE. GENERALLY IN THIS PATTERN...
MODELS ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE IMPORTANT DETAILS. FRONTAL ZONE
STRETCHED LAZILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
A STAND-UP 700MB BAROCLINIC LEAF PASSING. LITTLE REFLECTION AT SFC OF
THIS FEATURE EXCEPT GUSTS AND LIGHT RAIN AT VERNAL...AND PROBABLY
NORTHERN CO MTNS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEXT ENHANCED AREA IS AT 40/140
AT 08Z AND WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY: GOES SOUNDER SHOWS NO 500MB DIRECTLY COOLING BEHIND
THE CURRENT BAROCLINIC LEAF...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE MORNING
HOURS EXCEPT NORTH CO MTNS. 2C COOLING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH
THE JET NOSE THIS AFTERNOON. ETA/NGM ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) IN THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF THE
STRAIGHT-LINE JET. ALL MODELS PRODUCE MILD INSTABILITY/LIFT. LIFT
IS FROM 7-3 FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE ONLY 7-5 IN THE SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE MISSING INGREDIENT AND AREA DEWPOINTS AND
NGM MOS IS CLOSE AT 06HR/06Z. ALSO GOES TPW SHOWS AREAS OF 1.6
INCHES PW OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST. SO WILL ACCEPT
GUIDANCE POPS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH MTNS WITH SOUTH VALLEYS
DRY. TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE VALUES WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SATURDAY. FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH WITH
WETTING RAINS ONLY OCCURRING LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TONIGHT: SFC FRONT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF I-70 TODAY BUT IS PROGGED
TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS PRODUCE MOIST 7-5 OMEGA CENTRAL AND
SOUTH TONIGHT...AND THE FROPA MAY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AND
SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL AT 9-10K MSL.
MONDAY: ANOTHER 2C COOLING PROGGED AT 500MB FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
EXTENDED: THE NEW MRF/CANADIAN FCST TUESDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE BROADBRUSH WILL BE LEFT AS IS.
99/RAMEY
.GJT...NONE.
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY DUE TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
FXUS65 KPUB 070910 co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000
AT 1 AM SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO FEATURE HEAT/HUMIDITY PUMP HIGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT HAS EASED
THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND TRAILS BACK TO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE WHICH SHOULD RETARD ANY CLOSE
APPROACH TO IL FOR NOW. OLD VORT MAX LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN IL HAS
BEEN DOING A RERUN OF LAST NIGHT'S OKLAHOMA CORE DUMP, THIS TIME
NEAR ST LOUIS. LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LARGELY THERMALLY DRIVEN
AFTER YESTERDAY'S WELL OVER 100 DEGREE TEMPS WARMED ATMOSPHERE DRY
ADIABATICALLY TO 500 MB.
BURNING QUESTIONS THIS MORNING ARE 1) HOW HOT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY? AND 2) WHEN NEXT MIGHT IT RAIN IN OUR CWFA?
ALTHOUGH 00Z ANALYSIS AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST DID FORECAST 850 SOME
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE OUR AREA, LASTING INTO FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. MAIN EVIDENCE NOW IS IN THE INCREASING STRATOCU
FIELD INDICATED ON LATEST LOWER CLOUD CURVE, OVER MUCH OUR SOUTHWEST
CWFA. THE SOUTHERN VORT MAX SHOULD SAP ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REACHING OUR CWFA WITH MAIN ACTION MOVING EAST
WITH VORT MAX. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME STRAY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
STRATOCU FIELD, APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND LATEST 06Z RUC
DOES SHOW WIDESPREAD FEW HUNDREDTHS THIS MORNING, SO MAY YET HOLD ON
TO SOME LOW POPS, EXCEPT A BIT HIGHER FAR SOUTHEAST TODAY. WILL WAIT
ON THIS UNTIL LAST MINUTE. THEN CLEAR MODELS' MESSAGE IS FOR
INCREASING CAP STRENGTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AIDED BY SUPERHEATED
SOUTHERN PLAINS AIR, TO CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL ARRIVAL
OF FRONT MONDAY P.M. WHEN IT SHOULD ARRIVE WITH A LOUD BANG AND
HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINS.
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE
HEADED FOR AN EVEN WORSE PERFORMANCE, CERTAINLY MONDAY.
TODAY...STRATOCU MAY HOLD TEMPS BELOW YESTERDAY'S BUT PROBABLY STILL
A BIT ABOVE MOS. BY MONDAY...850 TEMPS RANGE FROM 16-17 IN COOLEST
MODELS TO >20 IN ETA AND WITHOUT A LOT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED, AND PREFRONTAL
SUBSIDENCE WARMING. BOTH MOS #S ARE CLUELESS. 90 CERTAINLY NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN CHICAGO MONDAY, THOUGH THE RECORD OF 94 APPEARS
OUT OF REACH.
.CHI...NONE.
KAPLAN
FXUS63 KILX 070142 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000
FCST CONCERNS: PRECIP CHCS LATE TONIGHT...MON AND TUES
TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
PESKY OLE UPR LOW MAKING A SLOW EXIT THIS AM. LINGERING -SHRA
RMN ACRS ERN CWA BUT FEEL ACTIVITY WL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT
ZONE PKG RELEASE. MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST PD IS THE PERSISTENCE
OF CLD COVER.
MRNG SFC ANALYSIS HAS WARM FRONT STRETCHING FRM SFC LOW OVR TX
PANHANDLE INTO NW AR. RUC/ETA BOTH SHOW ISN LIFT CTN THRU
18Z SUN THUS...FEEL STRATUS WL HANG OVR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL
MID DAY. LO LVL GRAD INCRS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTN
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. CLDS SHULD BEGIN TO BREAK
IN THE 18-20Z TIME PERIOD. NEXT QUESTION IS IF CLDS WL BREAK
SOON ENUF TO ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT. ETA DEPICTING H8 TEMPS
AOA 20C ACRS WRN CWA BY 00Z. NGM AND AVN COOLER...WITH H8
TEMPS ARND 17C. FWC NUMBERS LOOK A LTL COOL...PREFER WARMER FAN
NUMBERS. AM HESITANT TO GO AS HIGH AS ETA TEMP GRIDS AS...MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTING NWD FRM WATERLOGGED OK MAY KEEP TEMPS TO MIX
OUT DRY ADIABATICALLY.
NEXT QUESTION WHETHER TO INTRO POPS LATE TONIGHT OVR XTRM NW PART OF
CWA. AVN DEVELOPS 45 LLJ ACRS CTL KS OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF JET SHIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z MON...WITH NOSE OF LLJ POKING INTO NWRN PART
OF CWA. THETAE RDG AXIS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS FRM NER KS INTO ERN IA
BY 12Z MON. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVR NRN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THETAE AND WIND FIELDS HINT THAT CONVECTION CULD DEVELOP
AS FAR SOUTH AS NW MO. CAP STRENGTH WL BE LIMITING FACTOR IN SWD
DEVELOPMENT. AM INCLINED TO LEAVE MENTION OF POPS OUT DUE TO STRENGH
OF CAP. CAP REMAINS STRONG THRU MRNG AND AFTN ACRS MOST OF CWA.
APPROACHING FRONT WL INCRS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BY EARLY AFTN
ACRS NW. THIS COUPLED WITH INCRSG UPR DIVERGENCE SHULD HELP
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALNG FRONT. QUESTION IS WHETHER TO INTRO
LO POPS IN METRO AREA ZONES. FEEL BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WL
RMN NORTH OF METRO THRU 00Z TUESDAY. CHCS OF PRECIP SEEM PRETTY
GOOD FOR ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUES BUT...DUE TO CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF PRECIP WL NOT GO TOO CRAZY.
AM MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH WARMER FWC NUMBERS ON MONDAY. COMPRESSION
ALONG FRONT SHULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB AOA FWC VALUES. MOISTURE POOL
ALNG FRONT SHULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TWD THE NR 90 TEMPS
PROGGED BY ETA.
.EAX...NONE.
24
FXUS63 KSGF 070729 mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE LAPS/HAND ANALYSES SHOWING CWA UNDER RIDGING INFLUENCES
...RESULTING IN "MUGGY" CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S...WITH SOUTHERNLY WINDS. RUC/UPPER AIR CHART ANALYSES
DEPICTING DIGGING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
EASTERN MISSOURI MOVING ACROSS REGION AS AFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVE UPSTREAM. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF AN 850MB SW JET ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING CONTINUED TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
00Z SUN REGIONAL MODEL SURFACE INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR WITH AVN/ETA
UPPER LEVEL INITIALIZATIONS PREFERRED DUE TO "HANDLING" OF
DEVELOPING MCS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH
00Z TUE WILL KEEP AREA UNDER SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES AS EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MOVES NE INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY 00Z TUE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS REGION WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZATION DIFFUSING TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN AIRMASS MOISTURE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SKIES BECOMING OCCASIONALLY BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LAST ZONE ISSUANCE STILL IN LINE WITH SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
ETA/NGM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW POP POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH AVN FAN VALUES TRENDING TOO
HIGH. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE IN NW
PORTIONS OF REGION CLOSEST TO SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION AND ANY
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL MODELS...NGM THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE...CONTINUING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER EASTERN
ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED POPS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...WILL GO IN LINE WITH NGM MOS/AVN FAN VALUES ON HIGHS
AS BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING MAXIMUM SUNSHINE POTENTIAL. NGM MOS/AVN FAN VALUES FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL TREND
ACCORDINGLY.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BNA 084/063/086/065 2111
CSV 082/059/083/061 2111
.BNA...NONE.
14
JBW
FXUS64 KMRX 070644 tn
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2000
...WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AM
WITH TEMPS IN GENERAL A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH NEAR 90 IN THE SUSQ VALL WITH M-U80S MOST
OTHER SPOTS. REC HIGH OF 93 AT MDT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES FOR NOW. CU MACRO CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST PTSUNNY SKIES OVER THE N AND W MTNS WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST
REMAIN MSUNNY.
RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.CTP...NONE.
FITZGERALD
FXUS61 KPHI 070743 pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000
MCS ACROSS EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL SLOWLY SHRINKING. LATEST RUC/ETA
SUGGESTS MAIN AFFECT OF DYING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY BUT STILL HELP
KEEP PRECIP SCATTERED AT BEST. FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES SETTING UP ACROSS
AREA FROM MCS AND EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WILL UP POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. TEMPS NEED LITTLE
WORK AS WELL. 07
BNA...NONE.
FXUS64 KMRX 071408 tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000
A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EXTREMELY HIGH
LAPSE RATE AIR WEST OF THE DRY LINE. STILL NOT SURE THAT LOWER-
BASED (BUT STILL RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED GIVEN THE TEMP AND
DEW POINTS AT SPS) CONVECTION CAN FORM ON THE DRY LINE...GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP. HOWEVER...AWIPS LAPS AND RUC2 DATA INDICATE
THAT CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED IN THE AREA BETWEEN SPS AND
ABI AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE 100 DEG F AGAIN.. SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE INGESTING SOME GULF MOISTURE ARE
POSSIBLE.
WE WILL UPDATE AND CALL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
.FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT.
26
FXUS64 KEPZ 072019 tx