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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/17/07 2030Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2015Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...IOWA...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTIVE STORMS OVER OK LOOK AS THOUGH THEY SHOULD TRAIN OVER
AREAS OF SE KS AND W MO THAT ALREADY HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LEAD VORTICITY CENTER NOW PUSHING INTO
W PORTIONS OF KS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROF NOW BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED WITH AXIS INTO CNTRL TX PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  TREMENDOUS
JET STREAM CRASHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH ASSOCIATED STREAK TO OVER
160KTS OVER UT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO SHARPEN TROF OVER THE
NEXT 12HRS.  DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED WITH INCREASING
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK AIDING IN FOCUSING UL DIVERGENCE
OVER REGION.
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VERY WARM ELT'S ON 18Z SOUNDINGS HELPING TO LIMIT CTT TO AROUND -40C.
BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE
WEDGE FEATURE OVER BATES COUNTY IN W MO.  HAVE NOTED SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
TOP COOLING IN THIS AREA WITH A RATHER WELL DEFINED OVER SHOOTING TOP TO
(-47C).  ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS FEATURE WERE RUNNING AROUND
2.0"/HR.  OVER SE KS, HAVE NOTED 15 MINUTE CLOUD TOP COOLING RATES THAT
WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 45 MINUTES
AND THIS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER CASS AND BATES COUNTY.
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BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENT AXIS APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED FROM NE OK THROUGH
SE KS AND INTO CNTRL MO.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER OK SHOULD TRAIN NE OVER SE KS AND INTO PORTIONS OF W CNTRL MO.
AT THIS TIME WOULD PLACE THE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM CFV TO LXT.
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AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST 6HRS RANGE FROM 1-2"
FROM N CNTRL OK TOWARDS E CNTRL KS.  CONSIDERING THE WARM TOP NATURE
OF THIS CONVECTIVE EVENT, BELIEVE THAT MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME LIKELY RUNNING AS HIGH AS 3-4".  BELIEVE THAT SIMILAR
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 3-6HRS OVER THE AXIS MENTIONED ABOVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4058 9374 4008 9281 3911 9316 3774 9391 3641 9505 3613
9663 3762 9672 3991 9535
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