ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/08/07 1000Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:0930Z  JS
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LOCATION...CENTRAL ARIZONA
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL CONTINUES TO
FOCUS ON THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AZ.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING TO THE ESE ACROSS S CA/EXTREME N BAJA WITH
DRY SURGE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER N BAJA. AS A RESULT THE MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME/ASSOCIATED JET AXIS HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ON CENT
AZ DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH INFLECTION/PIVOT POINT DEVELOPING
THERE. ASSOCIATED NEARBY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WITH LARGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENT
ROCKIES/CENT PLAINS COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SFC TO
700MB S TO SW FLOW HAS CREATED FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR RATHER EFFICIENT
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER CENT AZ. EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE
REFERENCED A VERY NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MICROWAVE PW VALUES OF 1.2"
ENTRAINED IN PLUME AIMED AT AZ. THIS ALONG WITH ANALYZED SFC DEWPOINT
MAX OF MID TO HIGH 50S POOLED OVER S CENT AZ IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO AID
PRECIP EFFICIENCY. REALLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF RAINFALL RATES FROM
IR SATELLITE DATA DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER RECENT TRENDS FROM SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL
INTENSITY CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
INFLECTION POINT MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO IMPLIES ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MARICOPA/PINAL/GILA/SOUTHERN COCONINO/SOUTHERN
NAVAJO COUNTIES CONTINUING TO BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3519 11127 3485 10966 3107 11134 3154 11306
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