Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 140944 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 344 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE CLOSE TO NIL. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS IN CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF BY 15Z. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY, TEMPS SHOULD EASILY RECOVER INTO THE 38-43F RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FROM DDC WEST. SOME CLOUD COVER IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES MAY KEEP MINS HIGHER THERE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES. WITH LITTLE THERMAL ADVECTION, TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS SATURDAY, BUT WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MODIFICATION. INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS/DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYS 3-7... THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE RACING EAST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WITH THIS WAVE MOVING OUT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THINK ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY NIL SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM THE FORECAST ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MIXING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY. EXTRAPOLATING THE TEMPERATURE CURVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR NOW. WE COULD ALSO BE LOOKING AT CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION... THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS BLANKETED SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS BEEN ERODING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 41 20 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 41 19 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 41 19 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 41 19 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 39 17 40 23 / 0 20 10 0 P28 42 21 45 26 / 0 0 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN24/02
