000
FXUS04 KWBC 092200
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
559 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2009


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 10/0000 UTC THRU MAR 13/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPDATED...ONLY MININAL CHANGES WERE MADE BTWN THE PRELIM AND THE
FINAL DAY1 QPF BASED ON LATEST MODEL AVAILABILITY AND/OR
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LCLY HVY TO PSBLY EXCESSIVE RNFL IS EXPECTED FOR
PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.  THE 12Z SUITE
OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWED SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE SW
FLOW ALOFT AND HOW THE WESTERN U.S. TROF DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES AND
THEN STARTS TO HEAD EASTWARD...THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING AND ACCELERATING WHICH ALLOWS
FOR GOOD WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.
MODELS STILL SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING AOA 1 INCH
AND EVEN APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
SYS,  THE MODEL PCPN FORECASTS ARE NOT IN BAD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AXIS OF PCPN AND AMOUNTS.  THE NCEP MODELS TENDED TO DRAW A BIT
MORE QPF NORTHWARD THAN THEIR EARLIER RUNS...AND WE FOLLOWED THAT
IDEA GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT DEVELOPS.  THE GFS
TENDS TO END UP WITH AN ELONGATED AXIS OF PCPN IN THE FINAL SIX
HOURS OF OUR PERIOD...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER SOLN.  CONSEQUENTLY...WE
OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF SOLN HERE AND INDICATED A BAND OF 1-2+
INCH RNFL TOTALS..WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMTS PSBL.

...NEW ENG...
LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE ERN GTLKS
H5 S/WV GENLY OFF SHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN AS THE SYS MOVES AWAY.  BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY...WE KEPT MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN INDICATED BY THE
MODELS...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL PCPN SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

...WRN STATES...
THE REGIME OVR THE WRN STATES WL BE DOMINATED BY THE H5 TROF
DIGGING SSEWD FM THE PAC NW/NRN GT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL SRN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PD..WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
BEING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND MAINTAINING GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  MID LVL HGT FALLS/DYNAMICS AND LRG SCALE LIFT
WL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN..MSTLY SNOW..THRUOUT THE CNTRL GT
BASIN AND ROCKIES.  ALTHO MSTR NOT THAT GREAT..STG LIFT AND
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WL SUPPORT SOME MDTLY HVY SNOWS.  OUR MODEL
PREFFERENCE LARGELY REMAINED THE ECMWF WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
THE COMPLEX TERRAIN AS SHOWN BY THE 12 KM NAM.


DAY 2...

THREE AREAS OF MDT TO HVY QPF AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS
MORNING... MAINLY INVOLVING THE DYNAMIC PHASING POLAR SHORT WAVE
WHICH LIFTS FROM THE UPR MS VLY/GRT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA.

...UPR MS VLY...
THE DYNAMIC POLAR SHORT WAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE UPR MS VLY WILL
CAPITALIZE ON THE DEEP PLUME OF LL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND PRODUCE HVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN MN/WI AND THE
UP OF MI. THIS MOISTURE WILL FLOURISH IN THE COMA HEAD OF THE
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHERE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL LIFT WILL
BE PRESENT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT ON HOW MUCH QPF AND
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/GFS... WHILE THE 09Z SREF MEAN SEEMED LIKE
THE PERFECT COMPROMISE OF ANOTHER .25 TO .50 INCH LIQUID OR SNOW.

...OH VLY TO NORTHEAST...
THE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL
PLOW THROUGH THE OH VLY/GRT LAKES AND PUSH OFF THE NERN/MID-ATL
SEABOARD OVER THE 24 HR FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW TRACK FROM IN THROUGH SRN LWR MI/NRN OH INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS IS WHERE THE POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS WILL CAPITALIZE
ON THE POOLING LL MOISTURE. EXPECT A SOLID 1 TO 1.75 INCHES FROM
SERN LWR MI INTO CENTRAL NY STATE WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE NERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.

...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...
THE FINAL AREA FOR HVY PRECIP ON D2 WILL BE IN VICINITY OR JUST
NORTH AND ALONG THE POLAR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH
THIS REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES ENOUGH OF A SRN STREAM TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE SW INTO
MEXICO AND SWRLY FLOW INTO THE SRN PLAINS TO INTERACT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO OVERRUN INTO THE
COLD SECTOR FOR ORGANIZED HVY RAINFALL. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF WITH THE NAM ON THE AXIS AND AMOUNTS OF HVY
RAIN FROM SERN MO/WRN TN/KY SWWRD THROUGH AR INTO NRN LA AND MUCH
OF EAST AND CENTRAL TX... WHERE 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

DAY 3...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS

PREVIOUSLY NOTED POLAR FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE GULF
COAST... AS MORE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS APPROACH TX AND THE LWR MS
VLY. EXPECT HVY RAINFALL/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TX HILL
AND BIG BEND COUNTRY THRU THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE TN VLY. DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND HIGH PWS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THIS
BOUNDARY INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND INTERACT WITH THE MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT. AREAL AVGS OF ANYWHERE FROM
1-3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. HPC LEANED MORE
CLOSELY TOWARD THE CONSISTENT ECMWF ACROSS THIS REGION. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE SLOWER AND HOLDING BACK THESE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS THAN
THE ECMWF... WHICH PARTIALLY HALT THE MOISTURE FROM SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THIS REGION. NEEDLESS TO SAY... EXPECT VERY HVY
RAINFALL FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO NERN TX INTO AR/NRN LA AND INTO
WRN TN/NRN MS WITH EVEN SOME MIXED PRECIP BACK OVER WEST TX AND
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.

BANN/MUSHER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 11/00Z
 0.01 527868 527855 526850 524845 522840 514840 509842 505845
      495854 486864 480868 473870 465858 461852 458846 453832
      452828 453824 454819 458809 460798 457782 455773 452766
      449759 445754 438748 429741 419736 410732 404732 399734
      395738 393743 391749 391756 391784 391796 390808 390819
      390824 387829 381836 379842 378848 378858 378871 376882
      374888 371894 363904 357913 350922 345931 338940 331948
      320963 309978 304985 303989 304996 308001 303007 299017
      300024 304027 307026 315024 322018 340003 350998 359993
      383989 388987 392985 396982 400979 406973 408972 409979
      409987 408992 406003 405011 404019 406025 409030 412034
      411039 406045 403049 399051 387057 376058 371056 365056
      361058 358059 357063 377113 366118 359124 358128 358132
      361136 365140 369145 372148 380151 388152 392150 392148
      392146 388140 388136 390134 396132 418129 421132 422139
      428133 433125 436123 440124 452127 427184 425188 425191
      428192 434188 443203 451198 455196 458190 461186 465184
      471184 478188 481193 482197 481202 478206 472207 468210
      461210 456212 451213 444213 432215 424220 416231 404240
      404243 407246 414247 420250 430250 439250 448250 461250
      473251 477250 480249 481246 480238 479234 476231 477225
      482223 488220 493219 498215 498205 502198 505192 508190
      511190 515186 517180 516174 514169 514165 515161 515156
      515150 514145 512132 506116 500105 493099 488097 482097
      478098 475095 473089 470087 467088 464086 464082 479061
      485050 490037 493022 495011 496003 500976 505952 509941
      514927 523899 526881 527868
 0.01 330048 330045 330042 329040 328038 326036 324036 321036
      318038 317039 316042 317045 318047 320049 321049 324050
      327052 330049 330048
 0.01 303052 303048 300046 296046 288052 281053 277055 273059
      271062 272072 267084 268088 270090 274092 282092 285090
      290086 294082 296077 298072 301059 303052
 0.25 496923 497911 497906 495901 493899 489898 484899 472907
      466910 460911 447914 441915 438913 437910 437906 439901
      442892 442886 441882 438873 435853 434839 433822 432807
      431799 429792 424780 417770 414765 412763 411765 407776
      405782 404789 403804 403816 402826 400839 396848 393860
      390872 384898 381907 378916 369936 360956 358963 358970
      359972 363971 369969 382966 389963 397958 406953 412949
      416946 419942 422939 424935 425929 427932 427940 428948
      435972 439984 443995 446000 448009 448012 446019 440030
      437036 434043 432048 427051 424053 421056 418060 416060
      412061 404060 398060 393063 389065 384070 381071 377069
      375068 374071 374076 376082 384086 395090 401088 405092
      407095 409099 406100 405108 405111 408113 410110 410105
      409100 410095 415080 419077 424076 427076 433078 435079
      438076 441072 446064 450055 456043 460026 461019 463012
      469000 474990 478977 482966 486957 491947 494937 496923
 0.25 483165 481163 480160 479158 476156 474154 473153 471151
      468149 465153 465157 467161 467162 469164 472166 475166
      478167 481166 483165
 0.25 450221 448220 445220 445223 448223 450221
 0.25 398117 399113 397112 394112 394113 391114 388115 386116
      385117 383119 385123 388122 390120 391119 394117 397117
      398117
 0.50 483931 483921 481918 472922 466924 461927 458930 455934
      455939 454942 452944 451953 453960 457969 461973 463975
      463979 466971 471960 476952 481941 483931
 0.50 427815 426808 424801 419793 414790 412790 410792 409795
      408806 407816 405833 403842 401851 397864 391882 387898
      383916 378930 375938 373947 370955 370959 372962 382959
      389957 396952 400947 406941 410933 416920 425905 428897
      431889 433880 431867 428854 427844 428827 427815
 0.50 414072 412069 412068 410066 407066 404066 401067 400068
      398070 395072 392071 391072 389075 389076 391079 392080
      395083 398083 401081 404080 406080 407079 409076 410075
      412074 414072
 1.00 418827 418823 415822 412827 411838 411846 409852 405861
      397883 394896 390908 385932 381944 380948 382952 389950
      393948 398944 401940 406931 410921 415909 418896 421883
      420871 418862 416853 417847 417840 418827
 1.50 417884 417879 416874 415869 412866 407867 404873 401884
      399890 397898 394911 392923 390930 389938 392942 395941
      398939 402933 405927 409914 412902 416889 417884
 2.00 414877 412873 410871 407874 406880 402889 400899 398910
      395922 394934 398935 400932 402928 404918 408907 410898
      413887 414877

24HR QP VT 12/00Z
 0.01 495666 493658 490655 482654 468650 455646 448645 443647
      417660 413663 411666 408673 403679 397681 387684 383686
      383689 383697 386710 390719 389726 389733 387737 383743
      379747 376754 373770 370785 367797 360814 353828 341855
      330879 319903 292956 290960 290965 290971 286978 284981
      275990 271994 269998 266007 265013 267018 272032 274035
      274040 273047 278052 283053 293059 298063 300070 301079
      303086 305092 313093 323095 330097 337100 339098 341095
      342090 342085 338080 328068 320060 316055 316049 316042
      318036 320035 326025 331018 337012 344997 355970 360963
      365958 368954 370953 373950 377945 381940 391930 404916
      410910 417906 421904 425904 432908 436914 440922 444933
      446941 448950 450960 452968 455978 459985 464992 471996
      476997 481997 486995 490992 497987 501981 506973 514955
      521941 527923 531906 534885 535870 535862 535857 533842
      530826 527812 523804 512781 508774 503767 500762 498757
      498753 501743 502734 501728 501722 500714 496706 495701
      497696 499693 499685 496672 495666
 0.01 470111 472106 471101 472092 470087 465085 462081 460075
      457064 451055 444050 441049 438050 434053 431057 431060
      432064 434069 434073 437075 439073 442075 444077 450084
      448089 444092 438090 432091 428088 425088 427094 430099
      429104 426104 423105 422108 424112 432111 437112 441115
      452117 459110 467111 470111
 0.25 521851 519838 517831 513822 509817 505811 500807 496806
      490805 485812 482819 474831 471837 469844 465858 462873
      459886 457895 457901 458911 460918 463927 466933 474942
      478946 482947 485947 492945 497941 502935 505929 510917
      516900 519886 521876 522868 521851
 0.25 458683 457678 454675 451670 442665 436664 432666 422672
      417677 414682 412692 403711 403723 404738 404743 407752
      410759 412766 412773 411778 407787 404797 403806 396817
      393829 379845 375849 374849 371845 370835 365838 362851
      354872 350881 345889 326920 319929 314937 309946 306955
      300972 296980 292986 286997 285001 284008 283012 280016
      279019 281022 285024 294026 299026 302024 314011 321002
      326994 331984 336977 347965 354958 360952 367943 374934
      379925 385917 411890 415884 417878 419872 423867 427863
      430858 436850 438845 439838 440829 441823 444818 449808
      453802 456796 459784 462771 463758 460745 460736 460731
      462720 462709 459693 458683
 0.50 514864 514854 512847 508838 505833 502829 499827 495826
      487829 484835 475853 470873 468886 468896 469904 470910
      475916 478919 483921 486922 490920 497914 501907 506897
      509889 513876 514864 514864
 0.50 447682 440677 435675 432675 426677 423683 421693 422699
      420704 416712 415721 413730 413738 413745 417760 419772
      418777 416782 414791 413800 413810 412822 412828 413836
      412844 407852 401850 396855 393858 389863 383872 380866
      376867 372870 366878 360884 353891 342905 334917 322933
      314950 307965 300979 295986 291995 290999 291003 294014
      296016 301015 306009 312004 316000 321989 326982 332974
      337968 348957 357942 359937 363934 372929 377921 382913
      390896 395890 401885 407882 411878 418869 423861 427852
      429842 433832 441817 445804 448792 449781 450769 450757
      449748 445734 446722 446715 446710 444703 445698 447690
      447682
 1.00 438753 437747 435743 433741 430742 427744 425748 422754
      423760 426764 429774 428781 421792 420798 420806 421822
      423826 426827 430826 434821 437816 440804 443790 443781
      442773 437763 438756 438753
 1.00 420847 419843 417848 415853 416855 418852 420847 420847
 1.00 353925 351918 349915 345915 340918 337921 333927 326935
      322942 318951 315960 312968 307975 303983 298990 297993
      297996 300998 308997 312993 314989 318983 327968 336952
      341943 346937 351935 353930 353925
 1.50 435806 438791 438783 434792 429799 426807 426809 426811
      426815 428819 429818 431816 433812 434807 435806
 1.50 343928 343924 341924 338928 335930 331934 326941 322949
      319956 317961 317967 311974 306983 310985 321968 326961
      331954 335946 339935 343928
 2.00 333943 333940 331938 329941 327945 325948 327951 328952
      328951 330950 332947 332945 333943
 2.00 321963 322959 320959 320963 321963 321963


24HR QP VT 13/00Z
 0.01 489656 487649 483642 475634 469629 463624 455622 451621
      445622 435627 425634 419640 415645 406657 398667 390681
      379702 374712 368721 367725 364728 358736 350751 345760
      342769 343775 346778 350781 353788 354794 354802 352809
      352816 353822 354831 353838 350844 348846 345851 339859
      328860 325860 323863 322868 321878 319882 316885 310884
      305886 302887 295893 293897 292903 291915 290925 286937
      282947 277954 270963 260968 250973 248978 248981 249985
      252989 256996 259005 263012 268017 271020 273025 277033
      282041 288047 299053 310057 319063 322066 329065 333064
      337066 340070 345072 347074 343076 339074 333073 328075
      325078 324081 323088 325096 329104 333110 340116 354131
      359135 364139 368144 371150 370158 367163 362167 359167
      354162 348160 345160 343161 338162 332162 326160 322161
      323165 322168 320170 321174 326178 332184 335193 339200
      341203 344203 345200 343187 344179 346177 349179 356187
      363193 373200 377203 381203 384200 382195 376187 374180
      375170 378164 381159 386150 388146 387140 386131 388124
      390121 391116 390114 384106 381100 380097 383092 386089
      393081 394077 392072 389069 385070 381068 377065 369058
      362047 358043 352041 342038 338037 337031 342013 344005
      348997 351988 356980 366960 370950 370945 372939 375925
      378914 379907 379897 377886 378874 380858 382838 382819
      383812 382806 378795 378784 377771 374765 372762 373759
      379750 395730 400718 403711 406707 413702 421698 432693
      440690 449688 457687 459687 463692 464698 463704 461710
      456716 450720 447722 445726 448738 436746 433748 431753
      431758 433763 435765 437765 439763 442760 449759 456754
      461747 464741 469728 472715 473708 476703 490683 489656
 0.01 470860 470856 469852 467848 465846 464849 464853 464854
      462859 463863 466864 469864 470860
 0.01 448861 446857 443854 440856 437858 435861 438864 439864
      442865 445864 447862 448861
 0.01 339776 338774 336775 331779 324787 320793 314802 310807
      307812 307815 310817 313818 319816 326810 329802 334793
      338784 339776
 0.01 361114 361111 360108 360107 358103 358102 356100 355099
      352096 349094 347092 346092 346095 347096 348099 349103
      349104 350106 352108 353110 354111 357114 360114 361114
 0.25 370859 369852 367846 363844 358847 355850 353854 350866
      344874 340882 337887 334891 327898 321903 313910 299924
      296930 293941 291952 290957 288962 285968 279975 265987
      263993 266996 271003 276011 278016 284018 293015 305014
      314012 319009 323006 327999 334991 340985 347975 351969
      354959 357949 360936 361927 364916 366904 367898 366890
      370859
 0.50 365868 365861 363856 361855 358857 356861 352871 347879
      338894 332902 326908 320913 315921 313925 309928 302930
      300937 300941 301947 302953 303958 303962 301966 297967
      292968 287970 285973 280979 272986 268992 269995 272997
      277004 280008 286009 306006 312004 316002 321993 325988
      332983 339977 346968 349962 352953 355942 357931 361912
      363901 363890 363883 364877 365868
 1.00 355907 354902 350897 345899 340905 333915 328919 324925
      324932 319946 318951 314957 314963 311971 307974 302975
      290977 281983 277989 277993 279997 288003 294004 302002
      310995 315990 320986 328979 338970 344962 347954 349947
      353936 355928 355921 355907
 1.50 351929 351923 351919 349915 347915 343915 340918 333926
      328935 324945 321956 317963 314969 311974 305978 298981
      292981 287983 284985 281989 282994 291999 294999 299996
      315986 323980 330972 335966 339960 341956 348936 351929
 2.00 342931 342928 340927 336932 334936 330941 327945 325952
      321963 316971 308979 307981 309984 314983 318981 322978
      329968 334959 338948 342935 342931
 2.00 297992 298989 295987 294986 292985 290985 287986 285987
      284989 284991 285991 288993 290994 293995 296993 297992

$$