FXUS63 KOAX 061026
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
415 AM CST THU MAR 6 2003
 
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS FLUCTUATIONS IN PSN OF ARCTIC FRONT 
AND RESULTANT TEMPS THRU EXTENDED.  MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS 
CONSISTENT THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
SHORT TERM...FINGER OF STRATOCU IN EASTERN NEB IS NOT MAKING A LOT 
OF HEADWAY.  THIS IS DUE TO STRONG ADVN OF WARM DRY AIR AT THE TOP 
OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION.  NLG PROFILER HAS A 45 KT WIND AT 500 M...
WITH FBY UP TO 20KT FROM 5KT 4 HRS AGO.  EXPECT LOTS OF SUN AND 
ENOUGH WIND TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC INVERSION ACROSS ENTIRE 
AREA BY AFTN.  HOWEVER...SNOW COVER WILL BE A STRONG NEGATIVE 
FACTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES FROM AROUND OMA NORTH 
AND EAST WHERE THERE REMAINS 3 TO 5 INCHES...AT LEAST A LITTLE OF 
WHICH IS OLD AND CRUSTY.  DROPPED FCST MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS 
AREA.   

ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TONIGHT...BUT IS WEAKER IN NEW ETA 
THAN PREV RUN.  COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH 
THIS EVE.  LOWER MIN TEMPS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ADVN DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT THIS TO TAKE CARE OF MOST BUT NOT ALL OF THE SNOW FROM OMAHA 
NORTHEAST...WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING ELSEWHERE.  RAISED MAX TEMPS IN 
SW COUNTIES.  WARM ADVN CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW CLIPS ACROSS 
SD.  ETA WAS A LITTLE SLOWER AT 00Z...AND WAS FAVORED.  NEW 06Z GFS 
SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ETA...FOR A MILD NIGHT.           

THE WEEKEND IS STILL SETTING UP AS THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR...BUT 
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE DETAILS.  APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE 
SOME PUSH BEHIND THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.  GFS STILL 
HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER HEADED FURTHER SOUTH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS STILL SETS UP A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SAT NIGHT...AND A 
LOT OF CLOUDS.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST HOW STRONG 
THE PUSH WILL BE INTO OUR AREA...WITH A STRONG TEMP CONTRAST LIKELY 
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BACK OFF A BIT 
ON THE INTENSITY...BUT THE ABILITY OF SHALLOW COLD AIR TO SURGE 
AHEAD OF MODELS SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED.  RAISED PREV FORECAST 
TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MODEL TRENDS MIGHT INDICATE.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WARM 
ADVN...ABOUT MONDAY...AND THE FOLLOWING ARCTIC PUSH...TUE OR 
WED...DEPEND ON THE DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN 
BRANCH.  THIS IS MEANDERING ON A CONVOLUTED PATH THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CANADA THAT THE MODELS CLEARLY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH.  ONCE 
AGAIN...THE OVERALL TENDENCY SEEMS TO BE TO CALL FOR LESS ARCTIC AIR 
AT OUR LATITUDE...BUT WITH MAJOR TIMING QUESTIONS.  THERE COULD BE A 
MINOR SNOW OR EVEN RAIN EVENT WITH THE ADVNACE AND RETREAT OF A 
WEAKENING ARCTIC FRONT...BUT NOTHING LOOKS VERY SIGNIFICANT.  GFS
QPF DEFINITELY DRIER FOR US WITH SYSTEM ABOUT TUE IN SRN BRANCH.

.OMA...NONE.

$$
POLLACK