SPC AC 101245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004
   
   VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
   GRI 15 WNW SLN 30 NNW LBL 20 WNW LAA 20 NNE DEN 25 N LAR 50 S GCC 30
   S 4BQ 20 W REJ 45 NNE RAP 30 W VTN 25 N BBW 15 ESE GRI.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   MSS 20 NNW BAF 35 E ISP ...CONT... 35 S WAL 40 S FDY 10 NNW CMI 10
   NW BMI CGX 10 NNW GRR 55 ESE OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW PNS 40 SW SEM
   30 SSW GWO 50 SW ARG 25 NW UNO 10 NE UMN 15 WSW TUL 55 NNE CSM 35
   NNE CDS 10 NNE SJT 55 WNW AUS 60 ESE ACT 40 E LFK 25 ENE GLS
   ...CONT... DUG 45 SSW GNT 45 ENE DRO 45 NNW LAR 20 S WRL PIH 25 SSE
   BAM 40 S SVE 30 E MFR 50 ESE RDM 40 S PDT 50 NNE 3DU 55 N GGW
   ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 50 W AXN 25 S FRM 25 ESE LSE 70 W ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LK MI EWD INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   AND VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE
   CONUS WHILE A TROUGH MOVES EWD AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. 
   MEANWHILE...BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
   NRN CONUS GENERALLY FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH N OF THE BORDER MOVES FROM WRN
   ONTARIO TO NRN QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY
   SWWD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  NRN PORTION OF THE
   FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SWRN
   EXTENSION BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED WITH TIME FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD
   INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...LK MI AND VICINITY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND / THE MID-ATLANTIC...
   
   LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT EXISTS TODAY
   ACROSS THIS REGION SOUTHEAST OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT.
   
   MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
   REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   
   A SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF PA
   / NY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  WEAK UPPER FEATURE -- AND
   SOMEWHAT ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER
   MI WILL SPREAD ACROSS PA / NY THIS AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED
   LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONGER WIND FIELD MAY SUPPORT MORE
   NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL-SCALE BOWS
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
   THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ...ERN WY / ERN CO SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
   WEAK CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
   KS / NWRN MO ATTM...AND THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. 
   MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   WEST...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
   AFTERNOON.  AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...THETA-E
   ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION
   BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BY AFTERNOON...500 TO
   1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH
   SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS CAP WEAKENS.
   
   WITH MODERATE SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELYS...MODERATE / VEERING
   PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.  SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY SPREAD EWD
   INTO WRN KS / WRN NEB DURING THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES...BUT THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z