SPC AC 161619
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E ELO 45 N EAU 20 NW LSE 30 SSE RST 15 ENE FSD 20 NE BKX
65 W AXN 70 N GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNE CMX 10 NW JVL 20 SSW IRK 30 NNW EMP 30 ENE RSL 15 N EAR
60 WSW YKN 35 SW BKX 45 ENE ABR 60 NNW DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 N ABI 25 NNE GAG PNC 15 SSW TUL 30 SW PRX 15 NW DAL 15 NNE MWL
65 N ABI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BLI 50 SW PDT
95 SSE BNO 25 W LMT 45 SSW OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 35 SSE CSG
30 NW BHM 25 S GLH 45 SE LFK 25 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 ESE P07
35 ESE BGS 15 NE CDS 30 NNW GAG 30 SSW GCK 25 NNW CAO 35 WSW RTN
50 WNW ALS 10 SE GUC 20 NW 4FC 25 ENE FCL 10 W MHN 45 NNW PHP
65 NNE ISN.
INTENSE SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS MN THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES TO UPPER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH
OVER NCENTRAL SD AT 16Z WILL BE IN NWRN MN BY 00Z. STG SLY FLOW OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDS FROM SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE. DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD FROM LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL NEB TO WRN OK/TX BORDER.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE WELL CAPPED THIS
MORNING. WITH THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ABOVE THE CAP... LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM... AIR MASS POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING/COOLING EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
RELEASE THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY WRN MN BORDER BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND RACE NEWD. GIVEN CAPES TO 3000 J/KG MN SWD
AND THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
AS TROUGH EJECTS NEWD A POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS MN THRU EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.
GIVEN THE NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW AND MINIMAL LOW LEVEL TURNING...ONLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH BEST AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
VICINITY WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MN. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TONIGHT AS SQUALL LINE
MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WI AND WRN U.P. OF MI.

...SRN PLAINS...
SRN STREAM S/WV TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS TX/OK ATTM. BACK EDGE
OF ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR THE DRY LINE WRN OK/TX BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS WITH
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT APPARENT ON DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
HEAD...HOWEVER MID LEVEL COOLING WITH TROUGH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND VEERING
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THUS A CONDITIONAL THREAT REMAINS
IN OUTLOOK THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 18Z...

..HALES.. 04/16/02