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QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FXUS04 KWBC 140831
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
430 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 14/1200 UTC THRU MAR 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
...NWRN U.S...
NCEP AND NON-NCEP MODEL QPFS ARE IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT HERE AS
PCPN IS TRIGGERED BY A SHRTWV ADVANCING TO THE PAC NW COAST BY MID
PD AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A SECOND SYSTEM FCST TO APCH THE
COAST BY SUNDAY MRNG. A STRONG LOW TO MID LVL ONSHORE MSTR FETCH
WILL BE AVBL THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SUPPORT THE EVENT WITH MDT TO
HVY PCPN TOTALS EXPECTED. WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HERE
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL AS STRONG MODEL CONTINUITY
FM RUN TO RUN.
..INVOF THE SERN U.S...
WITH ONE EXCEPTION..THE GFS..GEM REGIONAL AND 13/1200 UTC ECMWF
QPFS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD ACCORD HANDLING THE QPF ASOCTD WITH
SHRTWV ENERGY BEING SHEARED NEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THE ONCE
EXCEPTION IS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH
ADVANCING THE PCPN EWD..A BIAS NOTED FOR THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
BELIEVE THE BEST BET FOR NOW IS TO SLOW THE EWD ADVANCE OF THE GFS
QPF BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BUT NOT AS
SLOW TNGTS GEM REGIONAL. OTHER THAN THE DISPLACEMENT
ISSUE..BELIEVE THE GFS RNFL TOTALS AND AREAL COVERAGE ARE VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MSTR AVBLTY AND THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE NAMS QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEEMS
UNDERDONE AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO FIT ITS OWN MASS FIELD DETAILS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION...
A PARTIALLY PHASED... GENERALLY SPLIT FLOW POSITIVE TILTED UPPER
TROUGH... WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE EAST
BEFORE REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUES MORNING. THE RESULTANT
WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUN AND MON WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE
STRETCHING BACK AND OVERRUNNING INTO THE MODEST COLD SECTOR TO
INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OH VLY INTO THE
MID-ATL STATES. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE LACK OF
CONTINUITY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SMALL SCALE PARTICULATES
AND HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS
WITH THE NAM AND GFS FOR BOTH DAYS. AS MENTIONED... EXPECT MOST OF
THE FOCUS OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO ALIGN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
VERY SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE DEEP GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING. EXPECT A GOOD INCH OR MORE IN QPF
AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OF MS/AL NEWRD THROUGH
CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO ERN SC/NC OVER THE 48 HR FCST PERIOD AND
GENERALLY A .10 TO .25 INCH ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION INTO THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE.
...PAC NW AND INTER-MOUNTAINS...
A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF WA SUN MORNING WILL STEER A
WEALTH OF PAC MOISTURE AND AN IMPRESSIVE 140KT 250 MB JET INTO
OR/NRN CA ON SUN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES THE CRITICAL LARGE
SCALE DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE VERY WELL... SUGGESTING THE
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NW/NRN CA AND DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION TO BE VERY ACTIVE ON SUN WITH POTENTIAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EXTREMELY HEAVY OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. THIS
GENERALLY AXIS OF HEAVY QPF WILL FOCUS IN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
JET OR INTO SRN OR/NRN CA COAST INTO THE OR CASCADES AND NRN CA
MTNS. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24 HR PERIOD COULD EASILY
REACH 4 INCHES IN SWRN OR/NWRN CA. ON MON... THE LOW UPPER HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...
WHICH WILL DECREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN THE
UPPER JET INTO THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINING
SOUTH OF AK CLOSING OFF A LARGE SCALE UPPER VORTEX AND DIGGING
HEIGHTS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PAC. AS A RESULT... EXPECT THE
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BUT AT
A MUCH MORE MODEST PACE.
KORTY/MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
0.01 540202 539194 536185 533176 531172 528169 523160 518152
512147 509144 503141 481125 474123 469123 467124 463127
462127 458123 456118 454111 455099 453095 449094 441096
418111 413112 410114 408119 410122 418124 420127 420133
419141 417148 416154 416161 417164 417168 414174 414180
416184 420188 422191 428192 433186 435184 435187 435194
437197 438202 439205 434206 421198 418201 418204 420212
419215 414212 410210 406207 394200 389202 386207 388212
390217 384219 380226 382233 386239 392244 402253 409258
418262 423265 429265 435265 446262 453260 460261 471265
480269 487277 491285 495291 500295 506294 512289 514286
516282 518278 519270 520259 520250 519244 517233 517229
518225 521225 526233 530234 534230
0.01 476198 477194 476191 473190 470191 468192 467192 463194
463195 461199 463202 465202 468201 469200 472199 475199
476198
0.01 398723 397716 395710 391704 387703 383703 378704 370708
362714 355723 348734 340745 336752 331761 330764 327768
324772 324777 339785 326801 323809 321819 321824 319828
313834 304843 300847 296852 292859 288869 284885 276901
265915 252933 248939 245946 243956 242965 242975 246985
252995 254997 261997 268995 275990 281984 286977 297961
300955 301949 303938 307930 311924 314920 318918 323919
325924 325938 328951 331964 333970 336977 338978 343979
347980 352978 356977 360974 365966 370957 374947 375942
375932 375924 375916 374903 374898 376893 380885 386876
397852 403842 407833 413814 413804 412796 408790 400784
398779 398773 399761 399754 399744 398723
0.01 441125 440119 438117 435118 431123 428127 426131 426139
425147 424154 427159 430159 429153 430147 430143 432136
435132 438128 441125
0.01 387076 384072 379070 375065 370061 367061 362063 358065
355072 350075 347075 341073 335071 330072 326074 324078
321088 318089 315093 321101 312104 312109 318113 323111
328111 332112 337118 340123 344126 351126 354124 356121
354115 351110 349106 348101 349098 353095 359094 363089
363084 367083 376087 381086 384079 387076
0.25 531204 531199 529189 524178 516167 508159 506154 500151
489144 488148 485152 482152 476150 471147 468145 465146
462148 458150 454150 447150 444150 440153 441159 446164
449167 451169 453167 456160 458158 461158 464161 467166
469170 473171 477173 486182 495190 499192 505194 511197
516201 524210 530208 531204
0.25 513266 514257 513248 511238 509232 507228 500214 496206
492203 486202 458210 448213 431214 426217 422223 421225
416227 415227 412224 402231 396234 398240 402244 409249
422254 430255 436254 452252 464251 472253 476254 481257
485262 490268 494276 496280 501284 506285 510279 513266
0.25 494240 493239 491235 491234 489230 487228 486227 483226
480226 480227 481231 482233 485236 485237 488236 489238
490239 493241 494240
0.25 386751 385743 382735 378729 374727 368729 366733 361745
358756 354768 352778 347791 342801 336810 331819 326832
319841 313848 306856 302862 298869 291887 287898 284910
283920 282931 281944 282947 285947 290944 294935 300927
305918 312906 317898 320895 326892 335891 339891 343891
347888 351885 359879 369873 374868 378863 386853 392843
395830 395824 394819 392815 389804 388797 387783 386772
387762 386751
0.50 506277 504267 499260 488242 484243 480234 475226 474224
481223 486223 492230 496238 503248 504248 506244 506238
504233 500224 498218 495213 488208 484207 479207 472211
464213 431218 428219 424222 426231 422231 416231 412231
408233 406235 405237 405240 412246 419249 428251 437251
444250 462247 468247 478248 483250 486255 492265 497274
499278 503279 506277
0.50 492171 491166 490165 487163 485161 484160 482158 479158
476158 475159 476162 476163 478166 480168 481169 483172
486174 489173 492171
0.50 373758 372751 369747 366750 364755 357776 351793 347803
342813 321845 315853 310858 303866 299875 293892 291901
289914 288923 289928 290930 292930 298923 304913 307906
311899 317892 322888 328885 346883 355875 362868 375854
380844 383831 383827 383820 380810 377800 376786 373770
373758
1.00 463238 462233 459229 456232 452232 446233 439235 433237
425237 421236 417236 415240 420245 426246 434245 441245
447244 454243 460240 463238
1.00 463225 465222 463220 458218 453218 449218 443219 439220
436223 432224 435229 441229 447229 450228 455227 459227
463225
1.00 361840 359826 355809 352810 349815 347820 343825 331840
326849 319859 305873 302881 299892 297902 299908 303904
305900 310892 316885 326879 331877 337876 343872 347867
351860 354855 357850 361840
1.50 449238 449237 446237 449238 449238
1.50 451222 451221 448220 446220 445220 442222 441223 442224
444226 448225 451222 451222
1.50 424242 421240 420241 421242 424242 424242
1.50 345842 345838 342838 340840 337845 332850 328856 324860
320866 320870 322872 326873 330870 335865 338859 341853
343846 345842
1.50 310882 310878 309877 307879 306880 305883 307885 310882
310882
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
0.01 524261 524255 522249 517238 514224 514220 516217 519215
527217 533218 536216 538211 539202 536191 533180 527169
522162 514152 502140 495134 489129 484126 480125 476120
478113 481111 486110 493108 497095 498080 497068 493067
491072 485080 477085 470087 466090 463093 459095 455093
452090 446089 439088 433088 427083 424084 422087 421091
423095 422099 419101 414102 409101 406103 403107 401110
399115 400117 404120 411123 416126 417130 416135 414141
409149 403155 402157 403161 408161 409166 412178 415184
418189 422192 428191 431188 434187 435191 435197 437202
437205 436206 432204 427199 425196 423194 418195 410195
407198 401201 396197 385195 378196 375198 375202 378206
380210 380215 370213 367215 364214 362214 361216 362220
364225 367228 374235 380240 393251 409261 425267 434270
440271 445270 455270 462272 469275 477283 481285 485285
489280 495286 503295 507298 510297
0.01 469703 468699 468695 465694 464698 464699 464703 465706
467707 469704 469703
0.01 415750 413743 409740 404740 402734 402729 399722 392716
386713 378710 369711 364713 360716 352724 345733 340740
334749 329758 327767 322781 319791 315800 308816 303824
300831 296840 292845 289849 289854 289860 287864 279880
274897 273905 273911 272914 272925 269935 263950 254964
252971 251977 253982 255992 258995 265994 280986 287986
290990 293998 295999 301000 305998 307994 310986 315978
319970 318966 315963 312960 308958 305957 305952 311946
315940 319931 323922 332906 339890 345871 349862 355856
360853 365852 368854 370861 372867 374872 380877 384878
390874 394867 398863 399858 400851 403846 406844 410839
408833 406830 405824 408820 412812 413807 413799 411790
417785 418783 418779 418774 415771 412769 412763 412758
415750
0.01 442129 443125 440122 434123 431127 430131 428135 428139
426143 424147 424154 426159 429161 431164 432160 431156
430148 433140 434136 438132 442129
0.25 513251 507230 504221 500212 492205 488204 482203 468206
459208 456210 452211 449213 445213 435211 427205 423204
418205 411207 403205 395202 388202 384203 384208 390217
389220 387222 381227 381233 383235 389241 396247 404251
411255 418256 430257 437255 444254 452253 457254 463257
469263 474267 478268 482267 485268 491270 494272 501280
502277 502269 502261 502255 507254 511253 513251
0.25 520191 520185 519181 516175 509165 501155 494148 487137
484133 478130 473128 469128 464129 460132 452142 448143
442142 438141 436143 434151 435157 437163 443173 442181
441188 441192 445197 450197 454193 461185 465181 468178
475177 482179 494182 501185 505188 510191 517194 520191
0.25 452109 452105 449101 444099 438099 435100 432104 429108
428112 427115 429117 432118 435116 440116 446117 449116
452113 452109
0.25 384744 383739 380735 375733 369733 363736 356740 353745
346754 339767 336772 334779 331790 329796 326800 313824
309835 303845 298857 294868 290878 287885 286892 286905
283919 281929 276942 271952 268957 267963 268968 269969
274967 284959 289956 294951 300943 306933 312923 324900
329890 332878 349828 358802 364790 371780 376771 381761
384753 384744
0.50 503238 503234 501226 498217 494213 491211 483208 474209
467210 460212 452214 443215 434214 427211 425210 420212
412212 404209 396205 391204 387205 388210 390214 395221
392225 388227 386231 387235 391239 398245 403249 413252
421253 431252 445249 454248 463249 470249 474249 478252
486259 493262 495260 496253 495245 493240 490238 486234
482232 480227 481224 484223 489228 492234 493239 495242
500241 503238
0.50 489166 488161 486159 482155 475150 471147 467141 466139
463139 453146 449147 442145 439145 436148 435152 438160
441165 445171 447179 446187 450188 455183 459177 460166
463165 468168 475169 482170 487169 489166
0.50 446109 444105 444104 441104 439104 438105 435107 434108
434112 435112 438113 441113 444111 446109
0.50 376749 372745 367744 362748 359754 355764 350772 343782
339794 337798 335801 331802 328805 326810 315829 311838
307847 303852 301858 299868 294877 292881 291887 292889
293892 293896 290907 289912 289919 287927 283938 281943
282948 287946 290943 297936 304927 308919 314911 319901
324891 328880 330872 334860 337848 339837 345816 347802
349797 353792 361785 367777 372769 375761 376754 376749
1.00 465226 468222 469219 465215 458215 440218 432218 428219
424222 423225 421229 417229 413227 412222 408221 406225
404228 400230 395233 396237 399241 405246 416249 423249
438246 454241 457239 458236 455234 452233 451230 465226
1.00 473158 470154 465149 462147 459151 456154 450155 449154
444153 441151 439153 441157 444162 449166 452167 453163
456160 458157 461157 467160 470161 473158
1.00 401216 400212 399211 397210 394209 391210 393213 395214
396215 399216 401216
1.00 338820 336817 331818 328820 325825 321834 321838 323844
325857 323861 320863 317864 314863 313858 309856 307860
303868 305872 307869 312866 315867 313874 313885 311895
311898 313898 316895 321889 325880 327870 329862 332852
334842 335832 338820
1.50 464221 462219 459218 454218 442220 435220 430221 427224
427226 426229 423233 418233 411231 407231 405233 403240
408245 411246 416247 423247 433244 443240 445230 450226
455224 460224 464221
1.50 330834 330830 329830 328831 329834 330834 330834
2.00 448225 446223 442222 436223 432224 430225 429230 425234
419235 411234 406237 407240 409243 417246 423246 428244
430242 432238 434234 438230 444226 448225
3.00 425242 424240 422238 419238 416238 413238 412238 413239
415241 418243 421243 424243 425242
24HR QP VT 17/12Z
0.01 524261 524256 521248 519240 516233 510222 508217 506215
500209 500205 505205 510207 513210 520220 524232 527237
529238 533229 537216 538205 538193 535186 532180 525168
519160 515154 512151 509147 503141 486127 476123 472119
475111 476108 475103 473099 472091 469084 469076 470065
470055 469047 469037 473025 479011 480003 481994 481986
481980 484972 484967 479964 478956 478941 477937 473933
469933 466935 463941 459971 457983 454996 453003 453011
453021 452029 450044 446056 443061 437064 436069 436072
438076 445082 447085 446087 443087 440086 436086 433087
431087 425085 422087 422092 424095 426100 423102 421108
419115 421131 418136 418141 418146 415152 414157 414161
419166 415171 413176 415180 418190 419193 417193 413195
405198 397196 393194 381189 376191 374196 384215 379218
376216 371216 368219 371227 375236 380244 387250 395258
399262 405265 417268 428271 433269 437267 447261 455257
459257 465259 478265 487274 500287 506292 511293
0.01 485196 485191 482187 477187 473187 467188 460190 457193
454197 451202 447208 453210 456210 457206 461204 465205
468205 471202 475202 478200 481199 484197 485196
0.01 415771 413767 410765 404764 387766 384763 384760 385756
389749 387745 385743 379740 372739 370732 368730 364728
358727 353726 344729 338732 333735 327742 321758 307781
304788 302795 299802 294810 290820 284834 278865 275877
273892 271907 267923 267931 267939 268943 272944 276942
287935 293931 301927 317906 328895 332889 335881 341868
346863 352861 365867 381867 394873 399875 404870 406864
407857 407854 405830 404821 406814 410807 413798 414791
416783 415771
0.01 436132 436128 435124 434124 431127 430128 428131 431134
434134 436132
0.01 427151 427147 427144 424146 423146 423150 424152 427152
427151
0.25 515277 517270 518262 518256 516249 514242 509232 506224
500215 494209 489206 482205 474207 460211 453214 444215
437214 429211 423209 415211 408211 400208 394205 391206
391210 396216 401220 401226 399227 394228 391230 390232
391235 395241 403246 413249 428250 461250 468252 477256
489267 501280 504282 507281 514278 515277
0.25 525198 525193 523190 520188 518191 520193 522197 525198
0.25 487165 488161 486158 482154 467152 461148 456147 451147
444146 440143 436144 434149 434155 435160 436165 432166
429165 427167 430173 436176 451176 458166 463162 467161
471163 478168 482169 487166 487165
0.25 456110 457101 456097 453094 450094 444095 439096 435099
433104 431108 429116 432117 435116 438116 440117 446121
449121 452119 455114 456110
0.25 393791 391788 385787 374788 370786 367781 366769 365757
362749 358744 354741 348742 343744 338749 331757 325767
317784 302821 299831 294841 292845 290850 289859 289870
286881 283892 282900 280911 282915 289914 298908 303904
317887 322879 327870 331861 333857 337852 341848 344843
347834 349824 352818 356815 361812 366812 369814 375813
389801 393796 393791
0.50 513261 512255 510248 505235 501224 496216 491213 485212
479211 475212 470213 466213 457215 438218 434219 430221
428223 427227 428231 427235 423235 416234 413232 412230
412226 414222 415219 413217 409218 408221 408225 408229
405232 402233 398235 400239 404242 409243 418243 424243
427242 437246 445246 453245 462245 468245 475247 481251
484254 490261 497271 500275 502276 504274 503268 501264
497253 491243 487240 484239 481236 477228 472226 471224
472221 475218 481219 487222 490227 494236 500246 505258
510263 513261
0.50 453163 453159 452157 450155 450154 447153 444151 443149
441148 439147 438149 436152 437157 438158 440161 440162
443165 445166 446167 449168 451167 452166 453163
0.50 453101 450099 447099 444100 442100 441101 438104 436108
436112 438113 441113 443114 446115 449114 450113 451109
452105 453102 453101
0.50 359758 357752 354749 350747 345749 340754 334762 324778
317793 311809 309815 307826 302841 300849 299859 295876
290891 287898 284908 287911 292908 298902 304896 313884
318876 321868 325860 329852 338838 341831 344821 347802
348794 352787 355779 357771 359758
1.00 452222 451221 448220 447220 448222 451222 452222
1.00 351762 348760 344762 340764 339767 329781 324795 320803
317811 313826 311833 311838 313844 315849 316851 319850
323843 328829 334822 335819 336814 338806 339798 342790
345784 348775 350766 351762