Welcome
David L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Chair
Keynote: Global Oil Resources (Presentation Not Available)
Peter
McCabe, USGS
Session 1: Issues in the Global Transition from Conventional Oil
David L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Chair
Economic Effects of the Peaking of Conventional Oil Supply (PowerPoint, 484 KB)
Hill Huntington, Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University
What Can We Expect From OPEC? (PowerPoint, 714 KB)
Dermot Gately, New York University
Beyond Oil: Two Roads Diverge (PowerPoint, 762 KB)
David Hawkins, Natural Resources Defense Council
Session 2: Forces Driving the Transition from Conventional Oil
Sam Baldwin, U.S. Department of Energy, Chair
Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum (PowerPoint, 1,849 KB)
George Eads, Vice President, Charles River Associates International
Energy Security as a Driver in the Transition from Oil (PowerPoint, 458 KB)
Wil Kohl, The Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies
Climate Change Are We Approaching a Tipping Point? (PowerPoint, 2,142 KB)
Janet Peace, Senior Fellow in Economics, Pew Center on Climate Change
Arnulf Grübler, IIASA and Yale University
Session 3: Technology and Energy Transition
Robert Dixon, International Energy Agency, Chair
Technology of Conventional Oil Supply (PDF, 3,057 KB)
Tom O'Gallagher, Schlumberger
CO2-EOR: An Enabling Bridge for the Oil Transition (PowerPoint 3,957 KB)
Vello Kuuskraa, Advanced Resources International, Inc.
Biofuels' Potential to Replace Oil (PDF 4,773 KB)
Bob Perlack, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Energy Efficiency (Presentation Not Available)
Dolf Gielen, International Energy Agency
Session 4: Environmental Effects
Keith Sargent, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chair
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Transition to Oil Substitutes (PDF, 355 KB)
Alex Farrell, University of California, Berkeley
Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Assessment (PowerPoint, 2,301 KB)
M. Q. Wang, Argonne National Laboratory
Hybrid Input-Output Life Cycle Models (PowerPoint, 2,729 KB)
Heather MacLean, University of Toronto
An Integrated View of Climate and Air Pollution:
Climate Stabilization in the 21st Century (PDF, 682 KB)
Steve Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Session 5: What Are the Important Questions?
Panel discussion with audience participation
What are the Important Questions for Modelers to
Help Illuminate? (PDF, 11 KB)
William Fulkerson, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, retired, Chair
Modeling the Oil Transition: What are the Important Questions? (Presentation Not Available)
Sarah Dunham, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Modeling the Oil Transition: What are the Questions? (PowerPoint 263 KB)
Steve Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory
Understanding the Maximum of World Conventional Oil Production (PowerPoint 266 KB)
Robert Hirsch, Science Applications International Corporation
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and Vienna University of Technology
Session 6-8: Modeling Global Energy Transitions & Their Environmental
Effects
Part I - Modeling Oil Depletion
Dolf Gielen, International Energy Agency, Chair
Resource Depletion: Modeling and Forecasting Oil Production (PowerPoint, 883 KB)
Michael R. Smith, Energyfiles, LTD
Monte Carlo Simulation of Depletion and Markets (PowerPoint, 478 KB)
David L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Part II - Modeling the Economy, the Energy Sector and Environmental
Impacts
Michael Shelby, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chair
Oil Market: Transition or Evolution? (PowerPoint, 155 KB)
John Reilly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
REMI (MARKAL/TIMES) (PowerPoint, 2,560 KB)
George Treyz, Regional Economic Models, Inc.
The Contribution of Economic Models to the Oil Transition and to Climate Policy:
A Review of the AMIGA Modeling System (PowerPoint, 262 KB)
Skip Laitner, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, SAGE
Part III – Hybrid Models and Scenario Analysis
Hill Huntington, Stanford University, Energy Modeling Forum, Chair
SAGE (PowerPoint, 411 KB)
Glen Sweetnam, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration
Energy Sector Evolutions: A Scenario
Perspective from MiniCAM (PDF, 1,004 KB)
Leon Clarke, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Scenario Analysis Under Deep Uncertainty (PowerPoint, 411 KB)
Robert Lempert, RAND Corporation
Roundtable Discussion: Methodological Challenges and Opportunities for Improving Energy Transition Modeling
Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Facilitator
Endogenous Technological Change (PowerPoint, 1,023 KB)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and Vienna University of Technology
Endogenous Market Transitions (PowerPoint, 186 KB)
Paul Leiby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Commercializing New Technologies (PowerPoint, 56 KB)
Carmen Difiglio, U.S. Department of Energy
The Case for Peak Oil (Powerpoint, 119 KB)
Roger Bentley, University of Reading
Uncertainty and Role of Robust Hedging or Portfolio Approaches (PowerPoint, 147 KB)
Robert Lempert, RAND Corporation
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