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National Situation Update: Thursday, September 28, 2006

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Summary

The Midwest will fast-forward into late October tomorrow as high temperatures end up around 15 degrees below late September norms. Scattered or isolated showers will dot the region, too, with the heaviest rainfall, maybe near half an inch, wetting down the far eastern parts of Ohio and Kentucky. The Great Plains, meanwhile, will stay dry. High temperatures in much of the Midwest will be in the wind-chilled 50s, although most of western Illinois and Missouri should make it into the 60s. On the other hand, parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula might not climb out of the 40s. The Plains will see maxima in the 50s and 60s.

South

A cold front plunging toward the Gulf of Mexico will deliver gusty winds and cooler air to much of the South tomorrow. The front will also ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Tennessee and the Deep South. The most concentrated activity, however, will douse the southern Appalachians where one or two of the storms could turn severe. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms will rumble over the southern tip of Florida. Meanwhile, along the western and central Gulf Coast, only isolated storms are expected. High temperatures, responding to the push of cooler air, will be in the 60s, 70s and 80s, north to south. Only far south Texas and areas around Miami, Fla., are likely to see highs top 90.

West

A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to dominate the West tomorrow with sunny skies and maximum temperatures near to above average. Highs are forecast to range from the 50s at a few spots in the Rockies to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. The lower elevations of the Northwest will see another day with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much of Montana, mired in the 50s and 60s today, will see readings push back into the 70s tomorrow.

Northeast

A cold front and associated wave of low pressure will ensure a soggy day from the western two-thirds of New York State southward into most of Virginia tomorrow. The rain will push only slowly eastward into western New England, New Jersey tomorrow night, so parts of New York and Pennsylvania could end up with several inches of precipitation by Friday morning. In addition to the rain, isolated severe storms could join the festivities from central New York southward into West Virginia/western Virginia. High temperatures are expected to range from the 50s in far western New York and northwest Pennsylvania (behind the front) to the 80s in eastern Virginia (ahead of the front). Most of the region will be in the 60s and 70s. Much cooler weather will take over on Friday. (NWS, Media Sources)

Volcano Activity

Fourpeaked Volcano, Alaska. Long-dormant Volcano Presents Challenges for International Air Travel

Inactive for 10,000 years, Fourpeaked Mountain, 320 km (200 mi) SW of Anchorage on the Alaska Peninsula is now attracting interest from both the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC). Scientists are monitoring the ground for floods, debris flows, and lahars (volcanic mud flows), as well as damaging volcanic ash in the North Pacific jet stream as this long-dormant volcano begins to waken. 

On September 17, an explosion of ash, gas, and steam marked the onset of unrest at this ice-clad volcano. AVO elevated the level of concern color code to YELLOW on September 20, indicating that eruption may occur. Aerial and ground observations Tuesday indicate that volcanic unrest continues; a series of pits and elongated openings through glacial ice high on the north flank of the volcano are vigorously emitting volcanic gas and steam. Channels and debris fans on the ice field indicate that outbursts of water have occurred. As weather allows, AVO will continue to install additional instrumentation and conduct further geologic investigations near the volcano, however, based on their observations and limited geologic understanding of the volcano, it is possible that significant eruptive activity could occur in the coming days to weeks. Even without an eruption, Fourpeaked Volcano could have a significant impact on international air travel.
North Pacific and Russian Far East air routes pass over or near more than a hundred potentially active volcanoes, including Fourpeaked Volcano. Aircraft flying along these routes, some of the busiest in the world carry more than 10,000 passengers and millions of dollars of cargo each day to and from Asia, North America, and Europe. Pilots have a difficult time distinguishing eruption clouds from weather related clouds, making early detection of explosive volcanic eruptions, and locating / tracking the resultant ash and gas clouds, crucial to aviation safety.

More than 80 commercial aircraft have unexpectedly encountered volcanic ash in flight and at airports in the past 15 years. Seven of these encounters caused in-flight loss of jet engine power, which nearly resulted in the crash of the airplane. A range of damage may occur to airplanes that fly through an eruption cloud depending on the concentration of volcanic ash and gas aerosols in the cloud, the length of time the aircraft actually spends in the cloud, and the actions taken by the pilots to exit the cloud.

A large steam explosion near the summit of Fourpeaked volcano occurred on Sunday, September 17 beginning at approximately 3:00 pm EDT. Photographs and NEXRAD weather radar show that the plume reached up to approximately 20,000 ft (6,000 m) above sea level. The plume would have spread west and then moved north over the next day or so. This is consistent with pilot reports received by AVO on September 18 that described a strong sulfur smell in the Stony River Valley, ~200 miles west of Anchorage. AVO has received several accounts of very light ashfall, in Homer and near Nonvianuk Lake in Katmai National Park.  AVO and VAAC continue to watch this unusual activity closely. (The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers , Chris Jonientz-Trisler, FEMA Region X, Volcano Scientist, and The Alaska Volcano Observator, a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea:

Tropical Depression 9 - At 11:00 pm EDT, Wednesday September 27, Tropical Depression 9 was located about 745 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could become a tropical storm today. Tropical Depression 9 is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Tropical Depression 9 is not a threat to the U. S. or U.S. territories. 

Central and Eastern Pacific:

There are no current threats.

Western Pacific:

There are no current threats. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center).

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 6.7 (strong) earthquake occurred 120 miles ESE of Hihifo, Tonga; 180 miles SSW of PAGO PAGO, American Samoa at 2:22 AM EDT, Sept 28, 2006 (Sep 27 at 7:22 PM local time in Samoa Islands Region). . There have been no reports of damage but the magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available.  More information will be provided as it is available.  (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Missouri Joint Federal/State PDA results for Butler, Crawford, Dunklin, Howell, Iron, Madison, New Madrid, Perry, Phelps, Reynolds, Ripley and St. Francois Counties (All of the 12 requested PDA counties) are: Destroyed - 72; Major - 77; Minor - 241; Affected - 158  (FEMA Region VII)   

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 3
National Fire Activity
Initial attack activity: Light (74 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Large fires contained: 2
Uncontained large fires: 11
Area Command Teams: 1
Type 1 IMTs committed: 4
Type 2 IMTs committed: 3

Fire Use Teams:  Australia and New Zealand assisting with 24 fire specialists and managers. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center)

Day Fire (Los Padres National Forest): The Day Fire started on September 4, 2006.  To date 159,281 acres have been consumed as well as 18 buildings destroyed and 12 other damaged.  The California Highway Patrol is restricting access to Highway 9 in the event the fire advances toward Mt. Pinos and Frazier Park.  Recommended/precautionary evacuations, road closures, and structure protection has taken place in Lockwood Valley, Cuddy Valley, Vision, Chuchupate, Lake of the Woods, Pine Mountain Club, Pinon Pines, and Indian Pines.  Fire growth potential and difficulty of terrain is extreme.  Current weather conditions:  5-12 mph winds, temperature 75-85 degrees, and relative humidity at 12-22.  Tomorrow's forecast:  wind speed 4 mph with gusts to 8, temperature 39-49 degrees, relative humidity 8-30.  Within the next 24 hours, the fire may affect the communities of Frazier Park, Ozena, and multiple cell phone and radio communications sites. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Interagency Coordination Center, media sources, FEMA Region IX)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Indiana has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of flash flooding which occurred in Vanderburgh County on September 12, 2006, and Lake County on September 13, 2006. The Governor is requesting Individual Assistance for Vanderburgh and Lake Counties, and Hazard Mitigation Statewide. (FEMA HQ)