Forecast Discussions mentioning "ACARS", "MDCRS", "AIRCRAFT", "TAMDAR", or "AMDAR" received at FSL on 05/25/07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SHORT TERM... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS LEAVING THE DISTRICT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW MAY HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT -SHRA AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL DURING THE SHORT TERM. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN...SMOKE FROM THE HIGHWAY FIRE WEST OF RNO HAS DISSIPATED SOME WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...HOWEVER WITH GRADIENT WINDS LIGHTENING TONIGHT AND A WESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW LIKELY...AREAS OF SMOKE MAY AGAIN AFFECT THE RNO METRO TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. A TINY SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY BOTH NAM/GFS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR NRN SECTIONS OF WASHOE/MODOC COUNTIES FRI AFTN...WHICH ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED 700-500 RH...COULD GENERATE SOME ISLTD -SHRA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES SAT/SUN ARE REALLY QUITE QUESTIONABLE...GIVEN THAT FCST SFC-BASED INSTABILITIES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHCS FOR PRECIP SUN AFTN OVER THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONES...FEEL THAT BEST CHCS FOR ANYTHING WOULD BE OVER MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES AS TIME-SERIES OF SFC CONVERGENCE FROM GFS SHOWS BEST VALUES THERE SUN AFTN (ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY) COMPARED TO ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...A SMALL SCALE THICKNESS RIDGE IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SO READINGS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S (LOWER 90S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR EAST SUCH AS DIXIE VALLEY). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS OCCURRING SUNDAY PER GFS WHICH SHOWS 20-25KTS AT 700MB SUN AFTN. CS .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... I WARMED HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE EMERGING RIDGE CONSENSUS FOR NEXT WEEK. I ALSO PUSHED THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION FURTHER NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ENCOURAGE INSTABILITY TO BUILD ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA OR FAR WESTERN NEVADA. A SUMMER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK. A 582-585 DM RIDGE IS PROGGED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...AS WELL AS A FEW 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREFORE...I NUDGED HIGHS UP TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS(X) MOS. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS...OR SOME 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE THING TO WATCH FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW. AS PURE SPECULATION WITH NO IDEA HOW THE CUTOFF WILL PROGRESS (OR IF IT WILL)...IF THE LOW COMES INTO THE SIERRA NEGATIVELY TILTED IT COULD SET OFF QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG) OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA BY WEEK`S END. SNYDER && .AVIATION... VFR...NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY THING OF NOTE WILL BE AREAS OF SMOKE AT AND NEAR RENO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SMOKE MAY GET DENSE ENOUGH TO LOWER SFC VSBYS TO 6SM AT KRNO FROM PERHAPS 06Z THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...WITH SLANTWISE VSBYS PERHAPS 3-5SM FOR LANDING AIRCRAFT. SNYDER && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
145 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SYNOPSIS... THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD LOWER THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO DEEPEN AGAIN BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL CONTINUE DRY AND WARM. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ONSHORE RETURNING ACROSS ENTIRE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE STRATUS TO RETURN/FORM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTS AND VALLEYS AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TO AROUND 2500 FEET. THIS SHOULD RETURN BRING STRATUS/FOG TO MOST OF INLAND EMPIRE. ALSO INCLUDING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTS/VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON NAM12 GENERATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO TUESDAY NIGHTS PRECIPITATION EPISODE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CIRROSTRATUS OVER MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS AND RAISE SURFACE HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET...OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS OVER DESERT SLOPES/LOWER DESERTS. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LOWER THE MARINE LAYER BELOW 2000 FEET ON SATURDAY AND BELOW 1500 FEET ON SUNDAY...BUT THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SO COAST MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR...MORE LIKE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BE DRIER AND ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY. MEMORIAL DAY ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS SHOULD WEAKEN/BREAK THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALLOWING FOR EARLIER CLEARING...OTHERWISE MONDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS AGAIN TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN THE CONTROLLING FACTOR ON SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS FROM TUESDAY ON...IF VALID...SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AND MAINLY SERVE TO PUMP THE RIDGE. && .AVIATION... 241900Z...LATE MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH HAD LOWERED TO AROUND 1800 FEET MSL. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER LOWERING THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 1800 TO 2000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1500 FEET MSL SHOULD PUSH BACK ONSHORE AND INLAND THIS EVENING REACHING THE INLAND VALLEY AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY REACH THE VICINITY OF KONT BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR CLEARING PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING TO THE COAST BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2007 NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM... MARINE LAYER STILL A BIT JUMBLED FROM TODAYS WEAK OFFSHORE PUSH. IN FACT BULK OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION CAME FROM A SURGE THROUGH THE SBA CHANNEL. JUST NOW A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS ARE FORMING OFF THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND THESE SHOULD MOVE UP AND INTO L.A. COUNTY BEFORE DAWN. 08Z ACARS SHOWS MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT 1300 FEET. GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY BUT INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT CLEARING SO EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SUNNY AFTERNOON. L.A. COUNTY VALLEYS ARE THE WILDCARD THIS MORNING AND COULD START OUT SUNNY IF CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH OOMPH TO GET IN. AND THEN A RELENTLESSLY DULL JUNE LIKE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP AS BEST EXPRESSED BY THE GFS MOS PRODUCT FOR LANCASTER WHICH FORECASTS EXACTLY 90 DEGREES FOR A MAX TEMP FOR THE NEXT 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROXIMATELY 1500 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTER ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMALS. .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH MORE TO SAY LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP THE GENERAL NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN GOING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7. TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY AND WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION...24/1730Z THE MARINE LAYER IS ONLY 1200 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY LIMITED MARINE INTRUSION. ALL TAF SITES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ARE ALREADY CLOUD-FREE EXCEPT KOXR WHICH WILL CLEAR SOON. NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE COASTAL TAF SITES WERE MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR. THE COASTAL TAFS WILL CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SKIES WILL THEN BE CLEAR WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS AROUND 006-010 AND FORWARD VISIBILITY OF 1/2 MILE CENTRAL COAST TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. KLAX...CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVING IN AROUND 02Z WITH CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET AND FORWARD VISIBILITY OF 2 TO 3 MILES. KBUR...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT...TYPICAL SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...ASR AVIATION...SWEET WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
440 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2007 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... LATEST ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KLAX SHOWS A WEAK MARINE LAYER TOPPING OUT AT 3300 FEET BUT IT ALSO HINTS AT SEVERAL LOWER INVERSIONS TRYING TO FORM. THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR ACCURATE FORECASTING AS THE CLOUDS CAN FORM AT NEARLY ANY LEVEL AND THEN DISSIPATE AND REFORM AT ANOTHER LEVEL. THE WEAK INVERSION ALSO ALLOWS THE CLOUDS TO DISAPPEAR FOR A FEW HOURS AS JUST HAPPENED OF KLGB ONLY TO REFORM A FEW HOURS LATER. OFFSHORE TRENDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER. OFFSHORE TRENDS...NO EDDY TO SPEAK OF...AND A WEAK INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY DAY. SOUTHERN SURGE HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS UP AS FAR NORTH AS SAN LUIS OBISPO. MDLS ALL WEAK ON OFFSHORE PUSH AND HAVE SCALED THE WINDS BACK TO THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SOME TODAY FROM YDYS VALUES BUT NOT TOO MUCH...AGAIN DUE TO THE LESSER OFFSHORE FLOW. WRF CONTINUE THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS PREVIOUSLY CLEARER FORECAST PRESUMED BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW. JUNE GLOOM SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WITHOUT A CRUSHING UPPER HIGH TO SMOOSH AND STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION THERE SHOULD BE GOOD CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH NO BIG HIGH THE TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO WARM PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMS. .LONG TERM... EC AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT FIVE DAYS WHICH BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE. DULL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD MDLS DEVELOP TRANSITION THE NW FLOW TO SW FLOW AND MOVE A LITTLE RIPPLE OVER SRN CA. THIS SHOULD REALLY BOOST THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT INLAND TEMPS SEVERAL IF NOT MORE DEGREES BELOW MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS. HGTS ARE NOT TOO HIGH AND ONSHORE FLOW IS MODERATE TO STRONG. DO NOT KNOW WHY MOS GUIDANCE WENT SO WARM BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT IT IS GOING TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS. && .AVIATION...23/1140Z DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH MULTIPLE INVERSIONS PRODUCING ALL SORTS OF CONSTERNATION FOR THE AVIATION DESK. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ARE AFFECT MOST COAST AND COASTAL VALLEY TAFS SITES. HOWEVER... CIGS ARE VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAX BASIN. AT ANY RATE...CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK INVERSION WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN TO THE COASTS/VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY CIRCULATION ARE EXPECTED. INVERSION WILL LIKELY SETTLE DOWN TO A POINT WHERE MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR KLAX...MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING...WITH CLEAR VFR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND 04Z AT MVFR LEVELS WITH ONLY MINOR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS. TYPICAL 8-12 KT SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 04Z. OVERALL LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR KLAX TAF... ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FOR KBUR...MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE...GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING...WITH CLEAR VFR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH EDDY AND ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING...EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. TYPICAL SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KT WILL DEVELOP AROUND NOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENING. $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...ASR AVIATION...RAT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2007 .SHORT TERM... LATEST ACARS SOUNDING OUT OF KLAX SHOWS A WEAK MARINE LAYER TOPPING OUT AT 3300 FEET BUT IT ALSO HINTS AT SEVERAL LOWER INVERSIONS TRYING TO FORM. THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR ACCURATE FORECASTING AS THE CLOUDS CAN FORM AT NEARLY ANY LEVEL AND THEN DISSIPATE AND REFORM AT ANOTHER LEVEL. THE WEAK INVERSION ALSO ALLOWS THE CLOUDS TO DISAPPEAR FOR A FEW HOURS AS JUST HAPPENED OF KLGB ONLY TO REFORM A FEW HOURS LATER. OFFSHORE TRENDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER. OFFSHORE TRENDS...NO EDDY TO SPEAK OF...AND A WEAK INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY DAY. SOUTHERN SURGE HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS UP AS FAR NORTH AS SAN LUIS OBISPO. MDLS ALL WEAK ON OFFSHORE PUSH AND HAVE SCALED THE WINDS BACK TO THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SOME TODAY FROM YDYS VALUES BUT NOT TOO MUCH...AGAIN DUE TO THE LESSER OFFSHORE FLOW. WRF CONTINUE THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AS PREVIOUSLY CLEARER FORECAST PRESUMED BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW. JUNE GLOOM SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WITHOUT A CRUSHING UPPER HIGH TO SMOOSH AND STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION THERE SHOULD BE GOOD CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH NO BIG HIGH THE TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO WARM PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMS. .LONG TERM... EC AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT FIVE DAYS WHICH BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE. DULL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD MDLS DEVELOP TRANSITION THE NW FLOW TO SW FLOW AND MOVE A LITTLE RIPPLE OVER SRN CA. THIS SHOULD REALLY BOOST THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. KEPT INLAND TEMPS SEVERAL IF NOT MORE DEGREES BELOW MOS VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS. HGTS ARE NOT TOO HIGH AND ONSHORE FLOW IS MODERATE TO STRONG. DO NOT KNOW WHY MOS GUIDANCE WENT SO WARM BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT IT IS GOING TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS. && .AVIATION... ...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TAF ISSUANCE... $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...ASR AVIATION...RAT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
152 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 .AVIATION...PER KAPX 88D VAD WIND PROFILE...SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2K FEET THROUGH AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER GRB AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY PRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VFR SCT TO BRIEFLY BROKEN SKIES TO TVC AND PLN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED AT APN. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ADAM && .UPDATE...ISSUED 1006 PM. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW FALL TO THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE. A FEW PLACES HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE BEGINNING TO PLUNGE LIKE INDIAN RIVER RAWS WHERE IS IT 59F. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS AS SOME OF THE SHELTERED AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD AS DO THE SKIES WITH THE FEW CLOUDS THAT WILL DRIFT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LUTZ && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM. SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD/JUST SLIDING EAST WITH A WARM FRONT HUNG UP OVER NE LOWER DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE. EARLIER AIR MASS WITH 0.88" PWAT NOW DRYING...AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF GRB MORNING SOUNDING OF ONLY 0.57". THIS DRY ATMOSPHERE HAS ALLOWED FOR RATHER DEEP MIXING UP TO ROUGHLY 800MB BASED OF LATEST MODIFICATIONS TO TAMDAR/ACARS SOUNDINGS (10-30J/KG CINH). CUMULUS HAS THUS BEEN NON-EXISTENT AND BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED. H8 TEMPS OF +14C HAS BEEN A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE HIGH TEMPS AWAY FROM LAKE HURON THUS FAR...WHICH ARE AROUND 80F/LOWER 80S...AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT TO THE FORECAST LOWER 40S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RH`S NEARING 25% IN THE GTV BAY REGION. WE ARE JUST WAITING ON THE WINDS...WHICH WAS THE CONCERN THIS MORNING. LOOKING JUST UPSTREAM...WE DO HAVE SOME LOWER 20KT GUSTS THAT ARE TRYING TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NE LOWER WHERE A LAKE BREEZE/EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND HAS KEPT TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH NOWHERE CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER. FORECAST CONCERNS...FIRE WEATHER UNTIL SUNDOWN. CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FINALLY...WE NEED TO AT LEAST LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW. TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN HUNG UP ACROSS NE LOWER KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FROM BEING MET...MAINLY DUE TO LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. ALONG THE COAST...THE LAKE BREEZE/MORE EASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND 60S WITH RH`S NOWHERE CLOSE. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...GENERALLY WEST OF I75...THE DRIEST H8-H5 AIR HOLDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD ABOVE 75 DEGREES INTO 8PM WITH HUMIDITIES HANGING AROUND 25%. WINDS COULD ACTUALLY PICK UP TO GUSTY 25 MPH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO 8PM. THUS...WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30KTS. ONLY A THIN LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN AROUND 650-550MB...SEEMINGLY TOO SPARSE FOR ANY NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THIS MOIST LAYER TO INITIATE SHOWER ACTIVITY (LIKE LAST NIGHT). UPSTREAM MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS IOWA SUGGESTED BY MODELS TO STREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AFTER STARTING OFF CLEAR. THE LOW LEVEL WIND INCREASE AT 950MB WILL RESULT IN THE NEED FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN AVIATION PRODUCTS...AND IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE INCREASED MOS NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES (ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN) TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...WHILE TRYING TO SHOW LOWER HALF OF THE 50S IN MORE OF THE LOW-LYING/PROTECTED AREAS. WEDNESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA...IN STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS WILL STRETCH OUT ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE +14C TO +15C RANGE. THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS REACHING EVEN WARMER MIDDLE 80S WITH SOME POSSIBLE WARMER LOCATION IN THE UPPER 80S. THIS ERODES THE WARM NOSE SEEN AROUND 700MB THAT HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. WITH DEEP MIXING SUGGESTED AFTER THAT WARM NOSE OF MID LEVEL AIR IS OVERCOME...SFC TD`S COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE MIDDLE 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH MID AND UPPER 80S...WOULD RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL RH`S. FOR NOW...FEEL THAT THE MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE IN THE MIXING DEPTH AND WILL KEEP TD`S/RH`S AROUND 50F/29-34% RANGE..OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS. WE WILL HAVE A MUCH EASIER SHOT AT STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW WITH 15 MPH SUSTAINED LOOKING OK...AS WELL AS GUSTS TO 25 PH. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MORE IN THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST OR WESTERN CWA. WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 6KFT...WILL JUST BE A WARM AND DRY DAY. SMD LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS INITIAL STOUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IMPINGING SHORTWAVES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHERN MICHIGAN REMAINS DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN STRENGTHENING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST WITH APPROACH OF NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF SLOWER ADVANCEMENT OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. PATTERN RECOGNITION ALSO SUPPORTS OVERALL SLOWER TREND GIVEN BREADTH OF EASTERN CONUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WITH APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASINGLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT RUNS INTO RIDGE AXIS. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MID LEVEL CAP EFFECTIVELY REMAINING IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ON THURSDAY GIVEN INCREASED SUNSHINE AND CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT AFTERNOON READINGS TO PUSH THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER WITH MID 70S OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...WILL KEEP WILD FIRE CONCERNS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS PUSHING 50 DEGREES) SHOULD PREVENT CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM BEING MET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS ANY DELAY IN MOISTURE RETURN WOULD ALLOW THERMAL AND MECHANICAL MIXING TO SCOUR OUT AMBIENT MOISTURE...DROPPING RH VALUES TO CRITICAL LEVELS. THURSDAY NIGHT...RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. STEADY DECREASE IN SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...UNFAVORABLE TIMING...AND LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODELS STILL INSISTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING POST FRONTAL WITHIN BAND OF WEAKENING LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND MID LEVEL -DIVQ. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OVERCOME PRESENCE OF EVENING MID LEVEL CAP PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS MEAN LAYER CAPE BECOMES NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AND WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 20 TO 30 KNOTS. DEFINITE TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LESS OVERALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FAR REMOVED FROM BETTER DYNAMICS AS THEY PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND WITH JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT. AT THIS TIME...ENVISION A STEADILY DECREASING (BOTH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY) LINE OF SHOWERS THAT SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT POPS AT JUST CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. IN GENERAL...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT. REST OF THE EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK HELPS INDUCE LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LIFTS A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TRIED TO GET A LITTLE FANCY WITH TIMING AT THIS JUNCTURE...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY...CONTINUING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH TUESDAY (AT LEAST AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE). MSB && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 .AVIATION (FOR 06Z TAFS)... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HRS IN WARM SW FLOW. GOING FCST LLWS THIS MRNG AT BOTH SAW/CMX LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NOCTURNAL INCRS IN LLJ MAGNITUDE ABV LIGHTER NR SFC WINDS. MQT WVP INDICATES 40 KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT AGL... AND STDM4 SHOWS S WINDS APRCHG 35 KT AT 115 FT AGL. RETURN OF MORE MSTR TDAY WL SUPPORT MORE CU/SC...WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW CAUSING GUSTY WINDS AT SAW. ISOLD -SHRA OVER THE W MAY CLIP CMX LATE TNGT. MORE SHRA PSBL THIS AFTN/EVNG THERE WITH INSOLATION/INCRSD MSTR...BUT SAW WL LIKELY REMAIN TOO CAPPED THRU THE PD. && .UPDATE (ISSUED AT 730 PM)... ISSUED UPDATE TO FCST SCT -SHRA NOW MOVING NWD THRU WRN WI TO SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA AS LATEST NAM/RUC/GFS SHOW VEERING H85 FLOW AND NOCTURNAL INCRS IN LLJ SPEEDS TO 40-50 KT OVERNGT. ALTHOUGH NO FNT/ BNDRY IS EVIDENT...SHARP GRADIENT IN MSTR FM DRY/CAPPED AIRMASS OVER THE CWA/CNTRL AND EASTERN WI THIS EVNG AS SHOWN ON RECENT TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW TO MORE MOIST 12Z MPX SDNG REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS SUPPORTING SHRA TO THE W WL ACT AS PSEUDO-BNDRY IN THE PRESENCE OF INCRSG LLJ WITH VEERING FLOW PUSHING BNDRY FARTHER E THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SHRA COVG/INTENSITY HOWEVER WL BE LIMITED BY GREATER INCRS IN MSTR ALF/WARM ANTECEDENT MID LVL TEMPS (CAP)/UNIMPRESSIVE MODEL FCST CAPE NO MORE THAN 100-200 J/KG. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 430 PM)... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SE STATES TO HUDSON BAY. ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NE INTO WI...BUT IS ENCOUNTERING A VERY DRY AIRMASS PER 12Z RAOBS. SO...IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLOSE BEHIND IT IS LIFTING NE THRU NW IA INTO MN. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE IS ACTING ON E EDGE OF AIRMASS WITH MORE MOISTURE AND IS THUS TRIGGERING A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN MN. SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO MN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NE TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NE INTO UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH E EDGE OF 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE VERY NEAR WRN UPPER MI...HAVE KEPT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES JUST TO THE W OF KIWD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PCPN TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS TO SEE IF PCPN MIGHT IN FACT REACH FAR WRN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP TO 40-45KT. WITH WINDS STIRRING AT THE SFC AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W. FAVORED THE HIGH END OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE MID 60S THERE FOR MINS. EVEN OVER THE NCNTRL...DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP MINS NO LWR THAN AROUND 60F. PROMINENT 850MB THETA-E RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THU. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO CLEARLY DEFINED SHORTWAVES APPROACHING IN THE AFTN...SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO CARRY LOW POPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE)... FOCUS IS ON TIMING FOR FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PCPN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM PER GFS/UMKET/CANADIAN PREFERRED OVER QUICKER NAM GIVEN THAT MID-LVL FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC FRONT. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PCPN EVEN MORE SO THAN PREV SHIFTS. FOLLOWING ALONG WITH IDEA OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP IN LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT OVER WRN COUNTIES WHERE NOSE OF LOW-LVL JET AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES COULD TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED TSRA. GIVEN THAT FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE E ON THU WILL ONLY SPREAD LOW CHC POPS INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED (ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG). WOULD EXPECT A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THU EVENING OVER CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM SW PROPELLING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD DPVA DEPICTED BY MODELS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AT NOSE OF 45 KT 850 MB JET AS WELL. THUS HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP POPS TO 50 PCT IN THE EVENING FOR ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FRONT EXITING CWA BY 12Z FRI SO WILL KEEP FRI DRY AND COOLER...EXCEPT WL LEAVE GOING SLIGHT CHC POPS EARLY FOR UPSLOPE/WRAPAROUND SHRA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW IN REGION OF LINGERING MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL MODELS DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PREVIOUS FORECAST INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL NOW PUSH POPS BACK TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS ALL OF CWA SATURDAY EVENING. SHOWALTER INDICES SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE VALUES INITIALLY...SO LEFT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT ONLY WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF LATER TIMING WITH SYSTEM...ADDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. RAISED HIGHS ON SAT DUE TO LOCATION IN WARM SECTOR AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND LOWERED HIGHS ON SUN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BEHIND THE SYSTEM WINDS WILL COME OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO ALSO LOWERED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ON MON DUE TO AIR COMING OFF OF COLD LAKE SUPERIOR (LAKE TEMPS IN UPPER 30S). WENT WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR NEXT TUE...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS OF 12 TO 14C...THIS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW. && .MARINE (FOR 400 PM EDT LAKE SUPERIOR FCST)... OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH NAM PROFILES SHOW 40KT SRLY WINDS AT OR JUST UNDER 1KFT TONIGHT...EXPECT STRONGLY STABLE MARINE LAYER TO HOLD 10METER SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15 TO 20KT FOR THE MOST PART. AT HIGH OBSERVING PLATFORMS...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT. OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SRLY FLOW IS NEVER STRONG IN VERY STABLE SITUATIONS. E TO NE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING THERE SHOULD VEER SRLY THRU THE NIGHT. MDT SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA LATER THU. STRONG CAA AFTER FROPA COULD BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE WRLY WINDS THU NIGHT EARLY FRI. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...ROLFSON LONG TERM...VOSS/TAG UPDATE/AVIATION...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007 .DISCUSSION... DIFFICULT FORECAST UNFOLDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND THE AREA...AND WEST COAST TROUGH EJECTING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA/EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER AND THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LINE SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...ONLY TO REFORM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NEVADA AT THIS TIME...INTERACTS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...FORMING A SURFACE LOW IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIGHTENS QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND WITH PWATS RUNNING SOME 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH FSD...ELECTED TO FAVOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION...AND THEREFORE...PLACED THE QPF MAXIMUM AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT DEPICTED BY THE HPC GUIDANCE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE RESULTS IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA. A GREATER THAN 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF AT LEAST 40 KTS...THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS. FRIDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INFLUENCING THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. && .AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH FAR EASTERN MN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RW/TSRA SPREADING INTO KAXN AND KRWF FROM SD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WAA. SCT RW/TSRA OVERNIGHT FOR KSTC WITH WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY FOR KMSP AND POINTS E. KEPT LLWS THROUGH 09Z WITH A RAPID INCREASE AND VEERING WIND TO 38 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET PER LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KMSP. RW/TSRA DVLPG ONCE AGAIN WED AFTN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACRS MN. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ KAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007 .AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING FROM NW MN THROUGH EASTERN SD EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH FAR EASTERN MN BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RW/TSRA SPREADING INTO KAXN AND KRWF FROM SD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WAA. SCT RW/TSRA OVERNIGHT FOR KSTC WITH WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY FOR KMSP AND POINTS E. KEPT LLWS THROUGH 09Z WITH A RAPID INCREASE AND VEERING WIND TO 38 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET PER LATEST AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM KMSP. RW/TSRA DVLPG ONCE AGAIN WED AFTN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY ACRS MN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007/ SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH IN PLACES...SHOULD EASE UP INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY SLACKENING GRADIENT AND LOSS OF MIXING. FIRST LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENTER FAR NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING. BANDS OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SOMEWHAT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHERN MN ENTERS VERY LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS RUNNING A BIT OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND INCREASES TO OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ARE STILL PROGGED WITH THIS SECOND PUSH INTO EARLY WEDS MORNING. GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS...HALF INCH TO AN INCH...STILL LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO PLACES OF WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SUSTAINED. SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN U.S. DRIVING THESE SHOWERS HAS DUG SOUTH MORE THAN PROGGED...AND OVERALL PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE WILL BE SLOWER. FRONT SHOULD BE BISECTING MN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER HOT PROD AND MAX MOISTURE ADVECTION. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY...WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE OF ABOUT 50 PERCENT THAT LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO -4 AND CAPE REACHING 1000 J/KG. BUT SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN EASTERN COUNTIES WHEN UPPER JET COMES IN ALOFT. BEST POTENTIAL PROBABLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS AND LOW LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO HEATING COME TOGETHER...LEADING TO SOME IMPRESSIVE SPEED SHEAR. FRONT AMAZINGLY DOES NOT MOVE MUCH THOUGH INTO EARLY THURS...AGAIN THANKS TO THE DIGGING OF THE SYSTEM...AND A FINAL IMPULSE MOVES UP THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. AS WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE GLOOMY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS WITH HIGHER POPS. RIDGING IS TEMPORARY IN BETWEEN AS FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE MID POINT OF THE WEEKEND. STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING IN THE SOUTHEAST. H8 TEMPS DOWN TO 2C TO 6C DURING SUNDAY AND THE HOLIDAY SHOULD GIVE TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UNOFFICIAL START TO SUMMER. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ RAH/MTF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 AM MDT WED MAY 23 2007 .DISCUSSION... 08Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS N NM WITH A 1002MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KTCC. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS SE NM TOWARD THE CENTER OF LOW PRES. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DIVING SOUTH TOWARD NM. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOT SHOWS 80-100 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP OVER NW NM AND NE AZ PUSHING VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD NORTHERN NM. 00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL 500MB PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS/WINDS ALL OVER THE PLACE. NEXT DIFFICULTY IS DETERMINING SNOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS TONIGHT AS 00Z/06Z NAM HAS -2 TO -4C AT 700MB WHILE 00Z GFS SHOWING 0 TO -1C. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR FORECAST TWEAKS WITH SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD GFS. RAISED POPS TODAY IN THE NW AS CURRENT PRECIP CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE SAN JUANS. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS ALL AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF IN THESE AREAS UNTIL THE EVE HOURS. SHOULD SEE SNOW ACCUMS BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AFTER DARK ALONG THE CO BORDER WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT LATE SEASON LIGHT SNOW EVENT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NE PLAINS BEFORE ENDING BY MORNING. THURS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING ON SE WINDS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE STATE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE FRIDAY WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS BY FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG LOCATION OF REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEEKEND WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPS AND MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS. MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 62 37 74 43 / 60 10 0 5 GALLUP.......................... 64 30 74 38 / 30 5 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 70 32 73 40 / 20 5 0 5 GLENWOOD........................ 86 44 86 49 / 5 0 0 5 CHAMA........................... 54 26 61 33 / 70 30 5 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 35 69 42 / 30 10 0 20 RED RIVER....................... 56 26 57 32 / 80 40 0 20 TAOS............................ 63 32 68 41 / 50 30 0 10 SANTA FE........................ 71 38 70 46 / 30 10 0 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 39 72 46 / 20 10 0 10 ESPANOLA........................ 75 40 77 48 / 20 10 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 50 76 53 / 5 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 83 48 78 52 / 5 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 46 74 53 / 10 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 82 47 77 53 / 10 5 0 5 SOCORRO......................... 85 49 81 52 / 5 0 0 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 38 70 40 / 20 10 0 10 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 40 70 45 / 10 10 0 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 81 48 79 50 / 0 0 5 10 RUIDOSO......................... 71 43 70 45 / 0 0 5 20 RATON........................... 64 36 65 42 / 40 40 0 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 68 38 64 39 / 10 10 0 20 ROY............................. 71 43 67 46 / 20 20 0 20 CLAYTON......................... 74 42 67 46 / 30 50 5 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 83 46 72 52 / 10 10 5 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 84 48 71 53 / 10 20 5 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 85 51 73 55 / 5 10 5 20 CLOVIS.......................... 85 49 72 53 / 10 20 10 30 PORTALES........................ 88 49 73 55 / 5 20 10 30 ROSWELL......................... 91 55 76 59 / 5 10 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES SHLD BE MNLY CLR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN THE DAY. GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMAINING CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT CU TO FORM A FEW HOURS EARLIER ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN THE VCNTY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AHEAD...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...SAGE SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...TJP MARINE...APB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
809 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OF A SHWR OR TSTM IN TILL ARND SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER/PTNS OF FINGER LKS DUE TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES SHLD BE MNLY CLR EAST TO PTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN THE DAY. GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REMAINING CU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT CU TO FORM A FEW HOURS EARLIER ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WORKS TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN THE VCNTY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AHEAD...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...JJP SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...TJP MARINE...APB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OF A SHWR OR TSTM IN TILL ARND SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER/PTNS OF FINGER LKS DUE TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES SHLD BE MNLY CLR EAST TO PTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN THE DAY. GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...JJP SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...APB MARINE...APB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
356 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING. WILL STILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE OF A SHWR OR TSTM IN TILL ARND SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER/PTNS OF FINGER LKS DUE TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES SHLD BE MNLY CLR EAST TO PTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN THE DAY. GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. AGAIN TODAY LIGHT SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW OUR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME DOMINANT BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP LAKE ERIE INTO THE BUF/IAG REGION. ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE REACHING KROC TERMINAL IN 19-20Z TIME RANGE WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SSW FLOW. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH A WEAK SW GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUING. MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TODAY. FLOW WILL TEND TO FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE FROM THE SW...AND LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ALONG LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...JJP SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...APB MARINE...APB
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... MARINE LAYER REGIME WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING STRATUS/FOG BLANKETING MOST COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. 00Z GFS/WRF INDICATE ONLY MINOR SYNOPTIC FLUCUATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS CHANGE LITTLE AND MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. SO...WILL EXPECT VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS/FOG INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY... CLEARING TO THE BEACHES EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRATUS/FOG SHOW A MORE STUBBORN SIDE WITH LIMITED CLEARING. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP MORE OPTIMISTIC CLEARING TO THE BEACHES THINKING. AS FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS...DAILY VARIATIONS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH VALLEY AREAS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT NOTHING EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INDICATING A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER LOW PROGGED TO ROTATE NORTH JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. OVERALL...THE EFFECTS UPON THE FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL AS GOOD ONSHORE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG AND NEAR PERSISTENT TEMPS. JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE BLAND MARINE LAYER REGIME. && .AVIATION...25/1000Z ...WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY... $$ .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...THOMPSON AVIATION...BRUNO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1007MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE AZ/SW NM WITH SE WINDS ADVECTING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NW INTO MUCH OF NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER UT/CO SHEARING SE INTO NORTHERN NM WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER W TX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOTS SHOWS THE REAR SECTION OF A 60-80 KNOT JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SLOWLY NE ACROSS S CO/N NM. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE E PLAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OVER THE N MTNS AS THE UPPER JET EXITS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY AT BEST IN THE E PLAINS. LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING. 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHILE SFC FEATURES AND PRECIP PATTERNS ARE MUCH HARDER TO NAIL DOWN. GIVEN CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM DECIDED TO NUDGE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVE ENE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. NAM ADVERTISES A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C...LAPSE RATES BTWN 7 AND 8C/KM...AND PWATS BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH. STEERING CURRENTS BRING COMPLEX INTO THE KABQ AND KSAF REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE E PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED. DRYING TREND CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 79 45 83 47 / 20 10 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 78 39 82 40 / 30 10 5 0 GRANTS.......................... 77 42 81 41 / 30 20 5 0 GLENWOOD........................ 86 49 88 48 / 10 20 10 10 CHAMA........................... 64 33 72 32 / 50 20 20 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 44 75 42 / 40 50 10 5 RED RIVER....................... 56 36 64 35 / 60 50 20 10 TAOS............................ 71 40 76 38 / 40 50 20 10 SANTA FE........................ 71 45 77 46 / 50 60 20 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 46 79 46 / 40 60 10 5 ESPANOLA........................ 77 50 84 51 / 30 50 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 57 82 57 / 30 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 84 56 / 30 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 53 79 57 / 40 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 55 83 56 / 30 50 10 5 SOCORRO......................... 82 58 84 56 / 30 50 20 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 47 76 48 / 60 60 20 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 48 80 46 / 50 60 20 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 78 56 78 56 / 30 50 30 20 RUIDOSO......................... 67 48 70 52 / 60 60 30 30 RATON........................... 73 43 75 44 / 30 50 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 70 44 74 43 / 30 40 20 10 ROY............................. 73 52 74 52 / 30 40 20 20 CLAYTON......................... 75 53 76 54 / 40 30 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 78 56 84 56 / 30 60 20 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 76 58 83 58 / 30 40 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 77 58 84 58 / 30 30 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 73 56 79 58 / 40 30 30 20 PORTALES........................ 71 55 80 57 / 40 30 30 20 ROSWELL......................... 75 57 83 59 / 30 40 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
333 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE MORNING BEING DRY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WILL SBCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SET UP A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE...SHADOWING THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA AND SETTING UP A SUFFICIENT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY...BUT STILL RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE RECORD HIGH OF 86 IN 1975 FOR BUFFALO LIKELY SAFE...BUT ROCHESTER`S RECORD HIGH OF 88 IN 1904 THOUGH PROBABLY SAFE COULD BE APPROACHED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES FROM STAGNANT PATTERN. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO IMPROVE VSBY. SOME HAZE HAS ALSO FORMED FARTHER EAST ALONG LAKE ONTARIO FROM KROC TO KART. SO FAR VSBY IN THESE AREAS HAS GENERALLY REMAINED IN VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL KEEP ALL THE TERMINALS DRY DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
142 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO EASTERN NEW YORK FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,UPPER 50S PTNS OF INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES SHLD BE MNLY CLR. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST IN THE MORNING MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CHANCE SPREADING EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND TO EASTERN AREAS LTR IN THE DAY. GOING MORE TWD GFS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH AFTER 00Z MOVES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND BRINGS IN COOLER, DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH SHLD BRING A DRY DAY TO MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE FROM SYS OVER THE WESTERN LKS SHLD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SW NY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE SHWR/TSTM OVER CHAU COUNTY. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SAT. SAT NGT THE HIGH MOVES EAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM FRONT AHEAD OF SYS OVER LOWER LAKES BRINGS CHANCE SHWR/TSTM TO ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z. SUNDAY, LOW OVER THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO MOVES EAST. TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGGED OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 12Z MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL AHEAD OF FRONT THAT I DON`T SEE ANY REASON AT THIS TIME TO LOWER POPS FROM LIKELY RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TEMPS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. COULD GET PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES FROM STAGNANT PATTERN. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO IMPROVE VSBY. SOME HAZE HAS ALSO FORMED FARTHER EAST ALONG LAKE ONTARIO FROM KROC TO KART. SO FAR VSBY IN THESE AREAS HAS GENERALLY REMAINED IN VFR CATEGORY...ALTHOUGH MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL KEEP ALL THE TERMINALS DRY DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJP NEAR TERM...SAGE SHORT TERM...JJP LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...APB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
840 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LOWER THE MARINE LAYER AND BRING WARMER WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING. MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY/MONDAY... WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. MARINE LAYER WAS 2500-2700 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING. STRATUS HAD SPREAD ACROSS INLAND EMPIRE TO THE FOOTHILLS BUT CLOUD LAYER THERE WAS ONLY 300-500 FEET SO CLEARING OVER INLAND EMPIRE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY INLAND VALLEYS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 0930 PDT. HOWEVER COASTAL REGIONS WILL CLEAR LATER THAN YESTERDAY...CLOSER TO 1330 PDT...OWING TO NOT ONLY THICKER CLOUD LAYER...1000 FEET...BUT ALSO A STRONGER INVERSION...10 DEGREES CELSIUS. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS MARINE LAYER WILL LOWER TO 1900 FEET SATURDAY AND 1300 FEET SUNDAY BUT THE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY 1-2 DEG CELSIUS EACH DAY...MAKING COASTAL CLEARING LATER AND LESS LIKELY. REMAINDER OF AREA...ASIDE FROM A FEW AFTERNON CUMULUS SATURDAY AND THIN CIRROSTRATUS ON SUNDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM A FEW DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EACH DAY. ON MONDAY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED INLAND AREAS BUT THE COASTS COULD CLEAR BY NOON...BASED ON THE SIMILAR MARINE LAYER DEPTH BUT THE WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ERODED BY AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH. && .LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... GFS MODEL HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG RANGE PROGS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE GFS HAS A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND A CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE. EXPECT CLEAR...WARM DAYS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND VARYING DEGREES OF COASTAL CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION... 251500Z...12Z NKX SOUNDING...MORNING MDCRS SOUNDINGS AND TOP REPORTS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WAS AROUND 2500 FEET. STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 1800 FEET MSL SHOULD PULL BACK TO NEAR THE COAST BY 18Z. AIRPORTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LIKELY TO STAY BROKEN WITH ONLY BRIEF SCATTERED PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS SHOULD PUSH BACK INLAND DURING THE EVENING REACHING THE INLAND VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT. ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH WEEKEND...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE REACHED BY SUNDAY OVER MOUNTAINS WITH 10 HOUR DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 10 PERCENT AND MARGINAL TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF HUMIDITY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR AVIATION/MARINE.......HORTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1014 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .UPDATE... ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LATE MORNING FORECAST FOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED DEWPOINTS ALL OF THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND LAPS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHERMORE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN THE WEST IS CAUSING CUMULUS CLOUDS TO BUILD RAPIDLY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DELIVER 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF COOLING ALOFT TODAY...SO THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST OF SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS ON TARGET. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 305 AM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007...SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 1007MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE AZ/SW NM WITH SE WINDS ADVECTING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NW INTO MUCH OF NM. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER UT/CO SHEARING SE INTO NORTHERN NM WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER W TX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. 400-250MB AIRCRAFT WIND PLOTS SHOWS THE REAR SECTION OF A 60-80 KNOT JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXITING SLOWLY NE ACROSS S CO/N NM. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE E PLAINS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OVER THE N MTNS AS THE UPPER JET EXITS THE REGION. ANTICIPATE LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY AT BEST IN THE E PLAINS. LOWERED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA FOR THIS MORNING. 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WHILE SFC FEATURES AND PRECIP PATTERNS ARE MUCH HARDER TO NAIL DOWN. GIVEN CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM DECIDED TO NUDGE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS AND MOVE ENE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. NAM ADVERTISES A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -3C...LAPSE RATES BTWN 7 AND 8C/KM...AND PWATS BTWN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCH. STEERING CURRENTS BRING COMPLEX INTO THE KABQ AND KSAF REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE E PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY HOWEVER COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED. DRYING TREND CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 79 45 83 47 / 20 10 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 78 39 82 40 / 30 10 5 0 GRANTS.......................... 77 42 81 41 / 30 20 5 0 GLENWOOD........................ 86 49 88 48 / 10 20 10 10 CHAMA........................... 64 33 72 32 / 50 20 20 10 LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 44 75 42 / 40 50 10 5 RED RIVER....................... 56 36 64 35 / 60 50 20 10 TAOS............................ 71 40 76 38 / 40 50 20 10 SANTA FE........................ 71 45 77 46 / 50 60 20 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 46 79 46 / 40 60 10 5 ESPANOLA........................ 77 50 84 51 / 30 50 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 57 82 57 / 30 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 84 56 / 30 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 53 79 57 / 40 60 10 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 55 83 56 / 30 50 10 5 SOCORRO......................... 82 58 84 56 / 30 50 20 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 47 76 48 / 60 60 20 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 48 80 46 / 50 60 20 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 78 56 78 56 / 30 50 30 20 RUIDOSO......................... 67 48 70 52 / 60 60 30 30 RATON........................... 73 43 75 44 / 30 50 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 70 44 74 43 / 30 40 20 10 ROY............................. 73 52 74 52 / 30 40 20 20 CLAYTON......................... 75 53 76 54 / 40 30 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 78 56 84 56 / 30 60 20 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 76 58 83 58 / 30 40 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 77 58 84 58 / 30 30 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 73 56 79 58 / 40 30 30 20 PORTALES........................ 71 55 80 57 / 40 30 30 20 ROSWELL......................... 75 57 83 59 / 30 40 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 44
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1214 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 15Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE BCOME ESTABLISHED. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRODUCED COURTESY OF A CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH IS NOW STARTING TO FILL WITH MODERATE-TOWERING CU TO THE EAST OF JHW AND SOUTHEAST OF DSV. THE CAPES ARE SURGING TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...PARTLY DUE TO DEW POINTS BEING 2-4 DEG F HIGHER THAN MODELED. GIVEN AN ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSES... RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS (LOW 60S) FOUND OVER CENT/WRN PA WILL BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS UNIMPRESSIVE WHEN IT CAME TO LOOKING AT SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS DEPICTED WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR. THE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN AND BUILD STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL CAN BE ADDED TO THE THREAT OF HIGHLY LOCALIZED (ISOLATED) HIGH WIND GUSTS FOUND UNDER THE CORES OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARIES THOUGH...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHEAR PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. AS OF 1530Z...THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE WAS APPARENT ON VIS IMARGERY BUT NOT ON RADAR. THE BOUNDARY...AS EXPECTED...STRETCHED FROM ABOUT JHW NORTHEASTWARD TO WARSAW THEN NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO AREA WILL INITIALLY BE SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR THINGS OUT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER DRIER AIR. MILD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS NEAR THE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER ALTHOUGH THREAT SHLD BE LOW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS FROM AROUND GEORGIAN BAY THURSDAY MORNING TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK TRAILING SW TO NEAR BFD. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF A TSTM JUST IN THE MRNG IN THE EAST OTRW A CHANCE OF SHWRS WITH MSTLY CLDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...JJP AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1144 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 15Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG HAVE BCOME ESTABLISHED. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRODUCED COURTESY OF A CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH IS NOW STARTING TO FILL WITH MODERATE-TOWERING CU TO THE EAST OF JHW AND SOUTHEAST OF DSV. THE CAPES ARE SURGING TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...PARTLY DUE TO DEW POINTS BEING 2-4 DEG F HIGHER THAN MODELED. GIVEN AN ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSES... RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS (LOW 60S) FOUND OVER CENT/WRN PA WILL BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS UNIMPRESSIVE WHEN IT CAME TO LOOKING AT SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS...AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS DEPICTED WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR. THE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN AND BUILD STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHER DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL CAN BE ADDED TO THE THREAT OF HIGHLY LOCALIZED (ISOLATED) HIGH WIND GUSTS FOUND UNDER THE CORES OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARIES THOUGH...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS SHEAR PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. AS OF 1530Z...THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE WAS APPARENT ON VIS IMARGERY BUT NOT ON RADAR. THE BOUNDARY...AS EXPECTED...STRETCHED FROM ABOUT JHW NORTHEASTWARD TO WARSAW THEN NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE INITIAL CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO AREA WILL INITIALLY BE SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION. THIS SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER THROUGH THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR THINGS OUT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO NEAR DETROIT AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 13Z WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE AND MORE UNSTABLE AS A CLOUD FREE SKY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FULL EFFECTS OF A STRENGTHENING LATE MAY SUN. SBCAPES ARE ALREADY OVER 500 J/KG ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 18Z. THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING REVEALS A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SPEED SHEAR. THIS LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE NO REAL JET SUPPORT EITHER... BUT THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF LK ERIE. WHILE SERVING TO FOCUS CONVECTION AFTER 18Z...THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO CONTAIN ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO FORM ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT IF STRONGER CONVECTION FORMS...IT WOULD LIKELY INITIATE OVER WYOMING/ SRN ERIE/CATTARAUGUS OR EASTERN MOST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AFTER 18Z. AS USUAL...THE BUF METRO AREA WILL INITIALLY BE SHADOWED FROM THE CONVECTION. IN TERMS OF THE TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL (1.5K FT) WITH CAPES GENERALLY <1200 J/KG WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY LOW LEVEL JETS TO ASSIST WITH WINDS EITHER...SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UNDER THE CORES OF THE STRONGER STORMS NEAR/ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS THE FORCAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUNCH THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER STRONG LAKE BREEZE...WITH A COUPLE HOURS WORTH OF -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE...SO WILL LEAVE CONTINUITY AND NOT CLEAR THINGS OUT. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES TO THE UPPER 80S/NR 90 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...HIGH TEMP RECORDS FOR TODAY WILL BE THREATENED IN ROC WHERE THE CURRENT REC IS 88 SET IN 1904. THE REOCRD OF 86 FOR BUF SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL DEAMPLIFY TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE MORNING BEING DRY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE WILL SBCAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SET UP A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE...SHADOWING THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AREA AND SETTING UP A SUFFICIENT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THURSDAY...BUT STILL RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK REASONABLE... BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. THE RECORD HIGH OF 86 IN 1975 FOR BUFFALO LIKELY SAFE...BUT ROCHESTER`S RECORD HIGH OF 88 IN 1904 THOUGH PROBABLY SAFE COULD BE APPROACHED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY SNEAK IN LATER IN THE DAY. GFS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN SECTIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MILD FAIR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HAVE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ITS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY MVFR HAZE HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FINE PARTICULATES. EXPECT VSBY TO RISE INTO VFR RANGE BY MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAKENING FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN LACK OF DYNAMICS...ANY CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL JUST CARRY A VCSH ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES. DID CARRY A CB QUALIFIER AT KROC AND KJHW WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN POST FRONTAL STRATUS REGIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE LOW END OF VFR...BUT MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR AS WELL. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH RESTRICTED CIGS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND REQUIRE AIRCRAFT REROUTING. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE FROM STURGEON POINT DOWN TO RIPLEY WHICH TENDS TO REMAIN BREEZY IN NE FLOW. WINDS MAY STAY UP IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE HERE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH SW FLOW INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE COLD/STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE SPRING. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ003>008-013-014. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...APB AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...HITCHCOCK