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ABIO10 PGTW 180130

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/180130Z-181800ZNOV2008//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 77.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 78.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AN ELONAGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A 171411Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DIST-
URBANCE LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER,
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAV-
ORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS ELON-
GATED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S 90.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MET-
SAT IMAGERY AND A 172224Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT CON-
SOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AS A POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//