FXUS62 KEYW 120243 CCA
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EST THU DEC 11 2003

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS...DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A STRATO-CU FIELD ACROSS THE 
ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM MARATHON WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...AS WELL AS 
ACROSS THE ADJOINING GULF...ATLANTIC...AND WESTERN FLORIDA BAY 
WATERS. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE MAINLY NORTH AROUND 10 
MPH. THE KEYW VAD WIND PROFILER AND THE 00Z KEYW SOUNDING...DEPICT 
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KNOTS 
BELOW 5 KFT.

.OVERNIGHT FORECASTS...THE (18Z) GFS RUN DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY 
CLOUDINESS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...AND THE MESO-ETA SUPPORTS A FEW 
CLOUDS BETWEEN ABOUT 3500 AND 5000 FT...SO MOSTLY CLEAR IS A GREAT 
COMPROMISE. MODEL GUIDANCE AND LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF OBSERVATIONS 
SUGGEST A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS. WILL LOWER TO 
NEAR 10 MPH TONIGHT AND RECOMBINE ALL ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. 



&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...(18Z) RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL STILL COLORS 6 TO 7 
FEET SWELLS ACROSS THE WATERS IN ZONE 75...BUT LATEST OBSERVATION... 
FROM THE 42003 BUOY INDICATES ONLY A FIVE FEET SWELL EXISTS AT 
BEST.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST 0100Z QUICK SCAT DATA AVAILABLE 
DELINEATES AN AREA OF ONLY 5 TO 15 MPH WINDS JUST TO THE WEST OF 
ZONE 75. NO RELIABLE SHIP REPORTS THIS EVENING. BUT ENOUGH 
CONFIDENCE HERE TO REMOVE THE SCEC HEADLINE FOR ZONE 75 AND 
RECOMBINE WITH ZONE 32 AND 33. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.


&&
.AVIATION...
FOR KEYW AND KMTH TERMINALS...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS TRAPPED BENEATH 
A STRONG INVERSION LAYER ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE FROM KEY WEST 
AREA. WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL 2500-5000 FT HAD BEEN NW OFF THE 
GULF...BUT ARE TENDING TO GO DUE NORTH NOW AND THIS MAY ENABLE 
CLOUDS TO THIN AND/OR BREAK UP AROUND MIDNIGHT. FEW PATCHES MAY PASS 
NEAR OR OVER MARATHON NEXT FEW HOURS. BASES ARE NEAR 3 THSD FT 
(MAYBE 2500 FT IN SPOTS)...TOPS AT OR BELOW 6 THSD. A TURN OF 
WINDS ALOFT (AROUND 5 THSD FT) TO SE THEN S AT LIGHT SPEEDS MAY AID 
RETURN OF THESE SAME TYPE CLOUDS DURING FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE 
WINDS WILL GO NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPEEDS GENERALLY 12 KT OR 
LESS...THEN CLOSER TO E DURING FRI. 
FOR AIR ROUTE KMIA-KEYW...MAINLAND SECTION SHOULD BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
A RETURN OF SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS 3-5 THSD FT IS EXPECTED FOR 
AFTERNOON HOURS FRI. 
 

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....C.B.