ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/13/08 1957Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1945Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1628Z  NASA AMSR-E:1313Z/1134Z  DMSP SSMI F-13:1716Z
NASA TRMM:1506Z/1630Z
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...MORE CONVECTION HEADING FOR KAUAI...ACTIVITY SW OF OAHU SHOULD
BE SPREADING IN LATER TODAY...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BATTLE ONGOING BETWEEN DRY AIR/LOWER
PWS TO THE WEST AS CLOSE AS 165-170W AND RELATIVE DRY AIR THAT HAS
BEEN FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THIS HAS ALLOWED VERY MOIST PW BOUNDARY/PLUME TO CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER
KAUAI AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO NUDGE VERY SLOWLY EAST IN RESPONSE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF NEGATIVE TILTED TROF TO THE WEST. IT TOOK DAYS TO GET THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND IT IS NOT JUST GOING TO GO AWAY IN A FEW HRS.
ALSO OF NOTE...LATEST AMSU 16KM AREAL AVG INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES FROM
1628Z PASS SHOWED MAX AMOUNTS OF 1.35"/HR AT 21.7N/160.1W WITH A HUGH
AREA OF 0.5" TO 1.0"/HR RATES ALMOST 125 MILES SSW FROM THAT MAX AREA
SO LOTS OF WATER COMING KAUAI'S WAY.  SO CAN EXPECT CONTINUED EXCESSIVE
RAINS FOR MOST OF KAUAI...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS WHERE
THERE IT COULD BE TORRENTIAL AND LIFE THREATENING.  WITH MOVEMENT FROM
THE WEST SLOW CAN ONLY EXPECT A SLOW EXPANSION OF HVY RAIN EAST ACROSS
THE CHANNEL BETWEEN KAUAI AND OAHU...SO TIME TO CONTEMPLATE AMOUNT OF
HVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING..ESPECIALLY WITH GROUND SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAIN.  LET'S JUST HOPE THIS PATTERN...SIMILAR TO ONE
FEB-MAR 2006 I BELIEVE DOES NOT STICK AROUND AS A BLOCK FOR AS LONG AS
THAT ONE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH HOW FAR
THE NEGATIVE TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES EAST AND THAT MAY DEPEND ON JET AT
35N/180W AND RIDGE COMING ACROSS THE DATELINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC WILL POSTED IN 15 MINUTED ON HOME PAGE AT
ADDRESS BELOW...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 2513 16080 2371 15552 1790 15817 1740 15716 1915 16136

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